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Eclectic at 16:08 PM on 24 January 2021Models are unreliable
Gzzm @1282 ,
thank you for replying to Tom Dayton, who, I gather, was inclined to bet that you yourself were simply one of those "timid-but-angry" commenters who make a drive-by comment . . . and are never seen again here, owing to their strange psychological make-up.
Gzzm, clearly you are made of sterner stuff and wish to add some rational intelligent points to the online discourse. And it's never too late to begin in earnest !
In reply to your point /4. [in brief because off-topic] :-
4. Where is the proof ... CO2 ... variable like solar energy ...
Alas, Gzzm, this is "off-topic" here at this thread. You will find the evidence you ask for, at the Top Left of this page, via MOST USED Climate Myths number 2 "it's the sun" . . . or the other thread recommended by the Moderator. Indeed, your education would be greatly enhanced by you reading through at least the first half-dozen Myths in their Original Post form [basic thru advanced ] . And as has already been suggested, please read the OP of this thread here (which you appear to have omitted from your things-to-do-first list.)
Back on topic, Gzzm, with the models are unreliable ~ I can recommend some later reading for you, for the counter-arguments which can be found on the WattsUpWithThat blogsite. At WUWT the view is that all the scientists' models have subsequently proven to be completely wrong . . . and therefore all climate science is wrong.
Gzzm, you may not have heard of WUWT , or perhaps you have been warned to avoid it because of its strong tendency to promote half-baked science (or disproven science) and even more to repeatedly promote rubbish which is "Not Even Wrong". But fear not, Gzzm ~ among the pig-swill there, you may occasionally find a pearl or two from genuine scientists like Nick Stokes. Alas, Stokes does not appear there often . . . likewise there are a few other scientific minds to be found in the WUWT comments columns, but few and rare, because they generally get driven out of WUWT by the editors/censors. (Or perhaps these scientific minds get tired of the incessant torrents of mindless vitriol they receive at WUWT .)
Nevertheless, Gzzm, the WUWT blogsite is a fascinating exhibition of logical fallacies and intellectual insanity. An excellent guide to What Not To Do with one's brain. Most interesting of all, is the huge amount of anger there, underlying the flakey thinking and political extremism and lack of human compassion.
Gzzm, I have the strong impression that you yourself may be able to enlighten me about the deepest psychiatric basis of the sheer anger in these disparate "contrarian" minds. Some of it may be a genetic personality-type anger in all or most of the denialists, but there may well be one or more other factors. Your own insight would be welcome ! (But please reply on a more appropriate thread.)
Moderator Response:[BL] Please leave moderation to the moderators.
Discussing the character of people's behaviour at other blog sites is not helping this discussion.
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gzzm2013 at 15:45 PM on 24 January 2021CO2 is not the only driver of climate
Where is the proof that CO2 is driving the climate and not a third exogenous variable, like solar energy. Please post the evidence that proofs undeniably this supposed fact. correlation does not mean causation.
Moderator Response:[BL] Science does not "prove" things - it supports positions with evidence. "Undeniable proof" does not exist for people that are are unwilling and unable to review evidence.
Skeptical Science is a user forum wherein the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself. Ideology and politics get checked at the keyboard.
Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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gzzm2013 at 15:42 PM on 24 January 2021Models are unreliable
Dayton
Your argument is a red herring to distract from the fact that you won't answer my questions. The material you offer does not address directly the questions. The onus is on the claimant to produce the evidence. I don't have to produce anything. I am simply questioning the claims.
Moderator Response:[BL] "Just asking questions" as a rhetorical ploy does not cut it here. You must be willing to learn - and willing to put an effort into learning.
There is an immense amount of reference material discussed here and it can be a bit difficult at first to find an answer to your questions. That's why we recommend that Newcomers, Start Here and then learn The Big Picture.
I also recommend watching this video on why CO2 is the biggest climate control knob in Earth's history.
Further general questions can usually be be answered by first using the Search function in the upper left of every Skeptical Science page to see if there is already a post on it (odds are, there is). If you still have questions, use the Search function located in the upper left of every page here at Skeptical Science and post your question on the most pertinent thread.
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Comments primarily dealing with ideologies are frowned upon here. SkS is on online climate science Forum in which participants can freely discuss the science of climate change and the myths promulgated by those seeking to dissemble. All science is presented in context with links to primary sources so that the active, engaging mind can review any claims made.
Remember to frame your questions in compliance with the Comments Policy and lastly, to use the Preview function below the comment box to ensure that any html tags you're using work properly. -
Tom Dayton at 14:45 PM on 24 January 2021Models are unreliable
gzzm2013: Your two responses to me show that you have not bothered to read any of the material I linked for you. That behavior of refusing to engage in actual back and forth conversation is called "sloganeering" and is prohibited by the policies of this site, which you need to read.
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gzzm2013 at 13:50 PM on 24 January 2021Models are unreliable
Dayton
2 and 3. So let's put it this simply, let us draw an analogy. Many so called sciences like economics claim that they have economic "models" , which model complex systems, but the fact remains that the economics science is not able to predict the next global financial crisis in magnitude or timing or nature.
Yet people are claiming that the climatic models are reliable and can actually predict future climate (but long term trends only). I would like to hear from the best model, you chose it, name it, locate it, say who programmed it, who maintains it, who financed it (the onus is on the claimant, not me) and say what is the sea level (however they define it) in year 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and so on until year 5000. Also change in global temperature (however they define it, give the formal unchanging definition). We of course don't know what the sun is going to do, or volcanoes. So the prediction is contigent of factors that are unforeseable, so the predictions are a function of different combinations and series and progressions of multivariable values. I want to see the data. Should not be hard for a proven theory, right?
4. New topic. Where is the proof that CO2 is driving the climate and not a third exogenous variable, like solar energy. Please post the evidence that proofs undeniably this supposed fact. Remember that correlation does not mean causation.
Moderator Response:[TD] Regarding your new question #4, see the post “CO2 is main driver of climate.” Post any comments on that topic, in the thread off of that post. Your comments about that topic are off topic in this thread, and further off topic comments will be deleted.
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gzzm2013 at 13:38 PM on 24 January 2021Models are unreliable
Dayton
1. So you are saying that because those models are to be run on expensive computers they cannot be accessed by the general public. Why can't the public enter the input to the model, send it to the operators, then get the output of the model? Is the public not paying for the models? Every model has inputs and outputs. Its that simple. Can you list what are the input parameters of the best model? And what are its output parameters? Are the models too busy with experts entering inputs on them all the time that there is no time for the public to use what they paid for? Can things not be explained in plain English? Someone very smart said that if you can't explain it to a 6 year old you don't understand it yourself.
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gzzm2013 at 13:30 PM on 24 January 2021Models are unreliable
Eclectic:
In his Politics, Aristotle believed man was a "political animal" because he is a social creature with the power of speech and moral reasoning: Hence it is evident that the state is a creation of nature, and that man is by nature a political animal.
To think that the IPCC is not political is naive at best. The United Nations Security council is formed by the victors of WW2, nations that have been colonial empires and empires. They are great exporters of weapons and they have financed the United Nations.
You cannot analyze the science of climate change without questioning its funding, motives, mechanisms, governance and who is not sitting at the table, and who is not represented.
Moderator Response:[DB] Off-topic snipped.
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John Hartz at 02:24 AM on 24 January 2021Models are unreliable
Recommended supplemental reading:
If scientists can create a new way to predict climate change – making it as accurate as, say, forecasting the weather – it would help people make everyday decisions: how high to build a sea wall or what crops to plant.
Meet the team shaking up climate models by Doug Struck, Environment, The Christian Science Monitor, Jan 22, 2021
Note: This is a very well-researched and well-written indepth article.
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Tom Dayton at 13:24 PM on 23 January 2021Models are unreliable
RealClimate has posted its 2021 comparison of models to observations.
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Tom Dayton at 12:50 PM on 23 January 2021Models are unreliable
3. I'm not going to waste my time answering these questions, when you have not bothered to read the post on which you are commenting. I suspect your questions are merely rhetorical--actually, that's dignifying them too much. I suspect you are just drive-by ranting. Please do prove me wrong, by posting more specific questions that reveal you have done at least basic reading already.
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Tom Dayton at 12:45 PM on 23 January 2021Models are unreliable
2. Numerous groups of researchers all over the world create and run climate models, which intentionally differ from each other to provide consilience in the evidence. Scroll down in this page in the RealClimate site for a list of links to just a few of the model's web sites, where you will find the information you asked for. The most prominent, though certainly not only, organized effort to create and compare multiple models is CMIP--Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The most recently completed version of that multimodel project is CMIP5. CMIP6 is in progress. There is a summary of the degree of independence of the most prominent models, in this RealClimate post. More fundamentally, you need to learn better what "model" means in this context; Steve Easterbrook's post is a good summary. Getting at the root of your questions, watch Steve's TEDx talk.
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Tom Dayton at 12:23 PM on 23 January 2021Models are unreliable
- The General Circulation Models (GCMs) can run only on supercomputers. (Well, they can run on lesser hardware in principle, but you'd need to wait years, decades, or centuries for results.) There are numerous dramatically simpler models used for teaching the principles, such as this one by Tim Osborn that you can play with as you requested. Tamino described a model you can play with, without needing a computer at all. Other evidence not involving computer models is abundant on this SkepticalScience site, and in a huge number of other sources, including a video by investigative journalist Potholer54.
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Eclectic at 10:58 AM on 23 January 2021IPCC is alarmist
Gzzm @137 ,
your language is rather vague wrt "address the problem".
The various IPCC reports, over the years, are intended to summarize the overall climate science. The IPCC also produces a condensed version for Policymakers i.e. politicians.
Gzzm, best if you clarify what you mean by politics and political positions. The term politics covers a vast range of meaning.
As example, is it politics to say about a wildfire: "Quick, send in the fire-fighters" or on the other hand to say: "Nah just let it burn, come what may" ? Are such decisions practical decisions, or are they political decisions?
Can be hard to say what, if any, is politics. Probably best if we simply use common sense wrt "the problem".
Gzzm, please clarify any points you wish to make.
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gzzm2013 at 06:46 AM on 23 January 2021IPCC is alarmist
Why has the IPCC and other international bodies attempting to address the problem stopped talking about the cumulative nature of CO2 and who has historically contributed more to the problem?
AFter all, those of us old enough to remember the Kyoto Protocol recognize this:
"The Kyoto Protocol is based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities: it acknowledges that individual countries have different capabilities in combating climate change, owing to economic development, and therefore puts the obligation to reduce current emissions on developed countries on the basis that they are historically responsible for the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
This was almost universally recognized before, ignored today. Does the IPCC have a poltical agenda? I know political topics are not allowed, but here there is talk about IPCC as if it is just a scientific body, when it clearly has taken political positions throughout its history.
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gzzm2013 at 06:19 AM on 23 January 2021Models are unreliable
I have a few comments:
1. These so called models, many of them, were made with public money. Why has the public no access to play with the models? For example, enter inputs (CO2 concentrations), and see what the predicted outputs (e.g. temperature) are.
2. Where are these models, who programmed them, who owns them, who controls them, who maintains them, who checks them?
3. From the best public models, what are the predictions the models are making? Are these predictions published? Can we compare future outcomes vs model predictions? Do these models predict based on scenarios? What percent of previous models been correct in their predictions? Which accessible model is the best one, based on past predictions/forecasts vs. actual empirical data. What are the current predictions of this model ? Are these predictions contingent on certain scenarios, conditions and assumptions? What are these? Have these been documented, published and made public?
“What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.”
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering snipped.
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Tom Dayton at 11:27 AM on 21 January 2021Covid-19 and Climate Change Will Remain Inextricably Linked, Thanks to the Parallels (and the Denial)
COVIDFAQ.co is sort of like the SkepticalScience.com for COVID-19.
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BaerbelW at 05:34 AM on 20 January 2021Getting involved with Climate Science via crowdfunding and crowdsourcing
Dawei @10 & 11
Can you please drop us an email via the contact form? Right now your website doesn't quite fit the crowdsourcing aspect as there's no option to sign up for any tasks like the other sites do. Therey may however be other options to support your project.
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Dawei at 15:24 PM on 19 January 2021Getting involved with Climate Science via crowdfunding and crowdsourcing
Wow, I've been working too late again and I got lost reading about climateprediction. Climateobserved.org is the name of my project
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Dawei at 15:22 PM on 19 January 2021Getting involved with Climate Science via crowdfunding and crowdsourcing
<>
True, although the concept was first drafted back in July 2011 ... by me :)
https://skepticalscience.com/Citizen-Science-Climatology-for-Everyone.htmlBaerbel I suppose you wouldn't want to add my personal project of climateprediction.org? Still sort of early in the project but definitely open to contributors, as it's still only just me working on it and the task of finding all papers that found an observed effect of climate change is, as you can imagine, quite large. Also looking for people who understand SEO and can help with design consulting.
Moderator Response:[BL] Link activated.
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John Hartz at 06:11 AM on 18 January 2021Sea level rise is exaggerated
Recommended supplemental reading:
Rates of global sea level rise have accelerated since 1900, contrary to bloggers’ claims, Edited by Nikki Forrester, Claims Analysis, Climate Feedback, Jan 15, 2021
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MA Rodger at 22:30 PM on 17 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Climate Detective,
I have replied to your comment on an appropriate thread.
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MA Rodger at 22:27 PM on 17 January 2021It's waste heat
Climate Detective from elsewhere, [link URL not being uploaded https://skepticalscience.com//news.php?n=4962#136555 ]
Forgive me for demonstrating the major fallacies within your grand work but as you say "The calculations are not difficult to do."
The assertion you make that "All energy generation by humans results in an output of heat or thermal energy" is fundamentally wrong. It is "power" that is generated and when this is through the application of kinetic energy from passing fluids, through the burning of recently grown plant matter or from intercepting solar energy that would otherwise be absorbed by the ground, there is not net increase of the planet's surface energy. It is only the absorbing of albedo-decreasing solar energy, the splitting of heavy atoms or the burning of fossil fuels to release chemical energy that does result increased the planet's surface energy.
Further your attempts to suggest a significant level of climatic warming in an area such as the UK is due to these increases in surface energy ignores what would be the absence of such warming in adjacent areas where there is effectively no such surface warming, like the North Sea, the North Atlantic or for that matter, the whole of Africa. Taken over the whole globe, the UK is exceptional as it uses ~1% of global primary power but within ~0.05% of the global surface area. Because, as with all small areas of the globe, UK temperatures are very much dictated by the adjacent climate, the global average is the relevant value and that is trivially small. (Generally the energy released by FF use is exceeded by the GHG effect of the CO2 thus released in 9 to 18 months, depending on the type of FF employed.) -
2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
nigelj @4
The calculations are not difficult to do. I have done them here and here.
What Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy appears to be saying in comment @1 (if I understand correctly) is that even renewable energy use will increase global temperatures. This is obviously true. All energy use ends up as heat and entropy, i.e. temperature. The second law of thermodynamics tells us that.
The relevant question is, by how much does this energy use increase local temperatures? The answer is, that in advanced economies with high population densities current levels of energy use can increase temperatures by more than 1 °C since pre-industrial times, and this will only get worse with more population growth and economic growth. Even the average suburban housing estate will heat the local environment by over 1 °C (see here). More importantly, this has nothing to do with CO2 and the greenhouse effect. It applies equally to all energy sources, but obviously CO2 will make it even worse via radiative forcing or feedback.
The point is, green energy is not a free lunch. Therefore zero carbon emissions is not a panacea either.
Moderator Response:[BL] Please do not continue to carry on off-topic discussions here. Discussions of waste heat can be carried out on this thread:
Regular readers will find any new comments via the Comments link under the masthead, and you can always leave a link in a new comment here pointing to where you have made the on-topic comment.
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Eclectic at 11:58 AM on 16 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Philippe @31 ,
Greetings. And no offense taken by me. For anyone interested in the science of climate science, the WUWT blog is indeed an almost complete waste of time.
However, as a student of human nature, I must say that WUWT illustrates some of the human response to the challenges of AGW ~ and in that connection WUWT is a marvellous microcosm of mental pathologies. And being somewhat of a gentleman of leisure myself (sadly, far more a bourgeois gentilhomme than a true gentilhomme ) it is easy for me to find time to indulge my hobby there. Also helps me to keep some practised ripostes at the ready, against Denialists.
But I must not deflect further from this thread's topic. Despite the WUWT attractions of the ridiculous Christopher Monckton and the slightly less ridiculous Andy May, Willis Eschenbach, et alia. And despite the "peanut gallery" as you call it ~ a gallery rich in old chestnuts as well as peanut ideations, and even including some Brazil nuts (well, one or two from Chile or Argentina actually, as expatriate Yankees).
So I had better get off my hobbyhorse, and return the thread to its main topic, which seems to be the good Doctor Reddy.
Moderator Response:[BL] Actually, the topic here is discussion of the various items posted in the digest.
Dr. Reddy seems to have decided that finding a thread here at SkS where his musings are on topic is too difficult. If he returns, we will again try to redirect the discussion to an appropriate topic. Until then, let's stop speculating about individuals.
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:01 AM on 15 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
DSJR,
I will not comment on your quality or ethics, as I really have no interest in it. This is not about you, or me, but helping readers form understanding. I reiterate that the framing of your argument on satellite data suggests nefarious intent, although you provided no substantiation of such intent. Perhaps you don't see that and it's a language issue.
There is on this site abundant discussion of satellite data, including the repeated shortcomings of the UAH team, who had to have others show major mistakes on at least 2 occasions. There are also detailed posts on the height of the "slices" where the measurements are taken from which temperatures are derived. Go hack at it there. Perhaps this is about other satellite data than the ones we are most familiar with, then more references are needed, so we can check for ourselves. Usually, when corrections are done, papers about the why and how of the corrections are published.
As for the idea that solar and wind power plants have any measurable effect at a global scale on surface temperatures, I'll say that what you provided falls short by so much that, under the current state of knowledge, it puts that hypothesis in the "not even wrong" category. However, my opinion is always open to modifications in the face of new findings. If the idea attracts research and it turns it had merit, I will acknowledge that. However, as of now, I don't see that we are anywhere close to have the weight of evidence necessary.
Don't take it personally. Once again, this is not about you.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:41 AM on 15 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Thank you for the compliment, Eclectic, and no offense was intended. I know it is necessary to monitor the crazyness of the denialist crowd, I just don't ever find that I couldn't do something better with my time. I've been at this long enough to have fond memories of Steven Goddard and the carbonic snow in Antarctica :-)
Nowadays, Watts is a little more careful to weed out whoppers of such magnitude. But then, there was BEST, and the NOAA studies that completely invalidated the basic argument for the very existence of the site, and eventually Watts'own results that did exactly the same thing, all met with anger (toward BEST) and more denial.
The attitude of the WUWT peanut gallery when faced with reality taught me everything I needed to know about these clowns. Not to mention, of course, the "outing" of private addresses of scientists whose work they disliked, predating methods that have unfortunately become more common.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:26 AM on 15 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Bob, to elaborate, I'll repost this here, where it is even more relelvant than on the wildfire thread:
NOAA has just put out an assessment of the costs of climate change related extreme events over the past few decades. The steady increase in the yearly number of events and the yearly costs is staggering. The acceleration is interesting: the 2010s saw 119 events, of which 50 occured inthe past 3 years. Although 2020 ranked 1st with 22 events (probably due to the hurricane season), that's an average of 11.9 events per year, almost double the rate of the 2000s (6.2 per year).
Meanwhile, the subsidies to fossil fuels are not exactly slowing down.
The economic argument is making less and less sense, and the adverse effects of climate change are no longer some diffuse problem diluted in a somewhat distant future. It's here, now, slapping us in the face once a month.
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Bob Loblaw at 01:03 AM on 15 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Money talks. Munich Re has been one of the organizations that shows up in the news more often than others, when it comes to the insurance risks of climate change.
I saw this article last week in a major Canadian newspaper. (Not sure if it is paywalled.)
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michael sweet at 23:38 PM on 14 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Today (01-14-21) Politico (an online news organization) posted an article claiming that major banks and insurers want to start sending more money to address the climate crisis. Apparently they want a promenent seat at the table during the Biden administration.
While the proposals described in the Politico article do not go as far as many climate activists would like, it seems to me that it is a hopeful sign that financial institutions are talking about the climate crisis.
This carbon brief article claims that models used by the IPCC severely underestimate the damages currently caused by climate change. Apparently the IPCC models try to estimate general damages from climate change and assume extreme weather events cause little damage since they are rare. If fact, extreme weather events currently cause billions of dollars and a large part of that damage is attributable to climate change. For example hurricanes have long existed but Hurricane Harvey did more damage from increased rain due to climate change.
If insurers become concerned that they are losing money from climate change the pressure to take significant action will increase dramatically. Even 5 years ago financial institutions were mostly silent about climate change. Hopefully this will result in significant action being taken. I am interested in what other SkS readers think about this topic.
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Eclectic at 17:33 PM on 14 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Typo : slightly redeemed by
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Eclectic at 17:30 PM on 14 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Philippe @24 ,
your comment blessant is noted, that you regard the monitoring of WUWT to be time wasted.
Sadly, as a frequent reader/sampler of WUWT blogsite, I must agree with you, considering that site's continual overflow of puerility, mendacity and intellectual insanity. A septic pit indeed. But slightly redeemed its sheer concentrated exhibition of all types of interesting psychopathology and logical fallacies and general irrationality.
Philippe @17 ,
you surprise me when you say English is not your mother tongue. ( I have often admired your turn of phrase in various earlier posts on SkS. ) But perhaps your very eloquence should have alerted me to that possibility.
I any case : Happy New Year to you and all readers. Though it seems 2021 is out of the starting gate and is set fair to outpace 2020 in the Horridness Stakes. Place your bets, Ladies and Gentlemen !
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Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 09:58 AM on 14 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
I don't think, I need advise from poor quality/ethics people like you.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:51 AM on 14 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
DSJR,
"You used the word used by WUwt." What? Sorry, I have no idea of what this could possibly mean. Unlike others who make a point of monitoring the lunacy, I feel like any time spent on WUWT is wasted. It's not like I don't already know what's there, or that it ever gets better.
Your claim that language is not relevant to science is mistaken. Not only language is crucial for communication between members of science teams, but also for communicating science findings, whether that would be to a specialized audience or the general public. You are on this thread of your own accord, with a purpose. If you attempt to participate in an online discussion, you can't be cavalier about your ability to effectively convey your meaning. Get some help, take the time to polish your posts, eep it short ans simple.
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nigelj at 05:47 AM on 13 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy @16,
Ok sorry I misinterpreted your comment. But please note that breathing is carbon neutral. Refer below:
skepticalscience.com/breathing-co2-carbon-dioxide.htm
It should also be understood that while the growing human population potentially burns more fosssil fuels, etc, population growth is generally slowing down in most places, and even falling in absolute terms in some countries like Japan. We could perhaps make it slow down faster, but there are limits to what can be achieved with policies that would be generally acceptable to people. So our main focus has to be on things like a new energy grid. Hopefully any educated person can understand that, its simple enough.
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MA Rodger at 01:37 AM on 13 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy @16,
♥ Indeed, your book Reddy, S.J., (2008) 'Climate Change: Myths & Realities' is mostly available to read on a Google Books preview up to page 87 but pages 88-193 "are not shown in this preview".
♥ And nobody would mistake the critique within the 'blog' by William Connolley as your work.
♥ As for your assertion that my use of the adjective "erroneous" is not backed up by science, that is yet more "erroneous" input from you.
I haven't read past your comment @6 but that yields conclusive findings for me.
Your suggestions that solar or wind power are contributing to global warming is plain silly. A wind farm mixes air, and actually extracts energy locally to be transported for use elewhere. Temperature increases are simply the result of mixing of air, not the generating of warming.
A solar farm will decrease albedo but the additional solar energy absorbed is comparable to the waste heat from a fossil-fuelled or nuclear powerplant. And this is without the CO2 from a fossil-fuelled powerpalnt which will add to AGW.Any positive climate forcing raises global temperature and this in turn will be amplified by feedbacks, particularly through the resulting higher specific humidity.
Thus you write condescendingly @6: "increased CO2 raises temperature slightly and that produces an increase in water vapour, which does have the capability of raising atmospheric temperature" but with the added comment "However, it is not the case." So how is it that a climate forcing from increased CO2 (at 3.7wm^-2 per doubling) does not increase global temperature and thus initiate further warming from feedbacks? What scientific principle could you invoke to argue such a thing? -
Eclectic at 18:52 PM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
DRSJReddy ,
Thank you for your extensive information about yourself.
Evidently you are a serious and important person.
But to use the modern English colloquialism : "Enough already!"
Speaking for readers here, I can say it would be much appreciated if you now began at the various topic threads [see post #5 moderation listing] and clearly addressed those aspects of mainstream climate science which you consider to be incorrect. Of course, specifying your supporting scientific evidence (as may exist in the peer-reviewed articles of reputable scientific journals).
Moderator Response:[BL] Dr. Reddy will be monitored closely - as will this entire thread - so please everyone: leave the moderation to the moderators. In particular, if egregious violations of the comments policy are seen, wait before responding. The next stage of moderation will be deletions of all or part of comments, not just warnings.
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Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 15:07 PM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
phillippe
You used the word used by WUwt — in science whether English is first language or second is immeterial. My first two articles published in international journal in 1970. My 10 articles were published in international reputed peer reviewed journal in 1983/84.
Let me present three examples:
1. At TROPMET conference scientists analysed the satellite data and presented their results. The satellite data was provided by Ahmedabad institute – a scientist from Ahmedabad got up and said the data is not accurate. Then I asked him, if so why did you supply such data? or why you did not inform those scientists? There was no answer. Same was the case with satellite global average temperature data series. I presented this data on the global average surface temperature data series – around 1980 to 2000 in 2008 in my book. Later this data series disappeared from internet and appeared new data series saying that previous data series are not correct. Both satellite and surface data series by different groups present different values. Why?
2. When I was a scientist with ICRISAT, my group [two other scientist] tried to test A&M Texas Sorghum Growth model for India. They experimental data for Indian locations and few other countries and tested the model by adjusting radiation component. They presented the results at a meeting Chaired by DG of ICRISAT [a former soil professor from Hawaii] and Arkin from Texas who developed the model was also present. The result showed poor correlation for grain and biomass. Then the chairman/DG asked me you test the model by replacing the soil water balance model used in the model with my model [ICSWAB]. With this they presented the result on the next day. The correlation improved from around 0.30 to 0.85. But Arkin refused to change his model. Stopped the work. Then they brought in Monteith’s model from UK. This also failed. In fact the soil water balance model used in Arkin model works under conserved soil moisture which was the case where he developed but in India the model should account rainfall with crop and soil parameters. This is simple science and not English.
3. I submitted a paper to an international journal. They sent to two reviewers. One made few observations and accepted for publication. The other made good comments but said “the data can be fitted to linear curve”. Based on this observation, the regional editor rejected the paper for publication. Then I wrote to the Editor-in-Chief a 100 latter questioning the integrity of editorial committee members. This was sent to three regional editors [Australia, UK & USA], who concurred with my views. Then the Editor-in-Chief asked me to divide it in to three articles [articles related to editorial committee members of that journal]. They were published under discussion/comments on the articles I referred. After this, Editor-in-Chief asked me to resubmit the paper rejected. I did not do that but included in my 1993 book – as the reviewer used same statement which I used in the case of his article in Agronomy Journal/USA. IMD Journal is one of reputed journal — I published several articles during 70-80s, referred to date.Moderator Response:[BL]
Discussions of satellite data can go here:
https://skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm
Anecdotal stories and accusations of dishonesty are not science. If you wish to discuss models, there are several threads here. For example:
https://skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm
Discussions about the peer review process can be placed on on of the following threads:
https://skepticalscience.com/Peer-review-process.htm
https://skepticalscience.com/pal-review.htm
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
To be specific, you need to read the Comments policy in detail - especially the first two:
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Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 14:49 PM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
nigelj
Humans breath Air and use Oxygen and release CO2.
CO2 contribution to global warming, present equation that showed the relation — in fact what you all are talking is not global warming but it is trend that relates to all human induced contributions — see the definition of climate change by IPCC/UNFCCC/WMO. ----
Moderator Response:[BL] You have been advised to find appropriate threads for comments. You must follow that advice, or deletions will be done.
Others have easily found the appropriate thread (e.g. nigelj, in comment 23, below).
https://skepticalscience.com/breathing-co2-carbon-dioxide.htm
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nigelj at 14:28 PM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy @15
"So, the information obviously just does not exist — a false observation. This shows you decided something you don't accept others version and make cheap statements like "rant" ."
Oh the information exists does it? Please show me where, with a copy and paste and a link. You havent so far depite repeated requests. Whether it exists or not you are making certain claims, so the onus is on you to provide specific evidence, which you are totally unable to do.
And rant. Pfttt. I apply the term to my own writing sometimes. Its not derogatory. Rubbish would be impolite although arguably very accurate.
"The whole talk on CO2 — you plot CO2 versus population from 1960 to date present a simple linear trend."
Correlation doesn't prove causation. What are you a doctor of, out of curiosity? Astrology? I bet its another question you wont answer directly.
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Philippe Chantreau at 13:24 PM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
DSJR,
It seems English may not be your first language, and it makes your post somewhat difficult to sort through. It is not mine either but most of my secondary education took place in English so I have no difficulty in understanding, speaking, reading and writing.
Let's clarify a few things. I did not say anything about your afiliations, I have no real interest in it. However, you should acknowledge that this site routinely refers to peer-reviewed work published in high impact journals and that they do carry more weight. I note that, among the multiple citations in your most lengthy post, the majority are to yourself. You are arguing the quantification of attribution, and other things, without referring to the major works of the major contributors in the field who do publish in high impact journals, but by referring mostly to yourself. My skepticism is not unwarranted.
Secondly, I do not "want" you to do anything. I reserve the right to gauge the usefulness of your contribution.
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Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 12:49 PM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
MA Rodger
— book is partially available — ???
— Who is Dr. S. -— it is not my blog
— erroneous -— according to you and not according to science
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Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 12:43 PM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
negelj
So, the information obviously just does not exist — a false observation. This shows you decided something you don't accept others version and make cheap statements like "rant" . The whole talk on CO2 — you plot CO2 versus population from 1960 to date present a simple linear trend.
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Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 12:28 PM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
phillippe
From the starting of my research carrier, I am not associated with any organization and institution as you said. You can see from my publications, all is my own work as an individual. After returning to India from my assignments with FAO & WMO, I brought out a book in 1993 based on my work up to that time [based on articles published in national and international journals and my Ph.D. Thesis, ANU, Canberra]. The book review was published in an international journal by Chairman of Agrometeorology Group in WMO at that time. [Also edited TROPMET symposium held in 1995 at space science centre — published in 1999 titled "Advanced Technologies in Meteorology --.] This is a reference book for Agrometeorology at post-graduate level. On the request of a publisher I revised it and it was published in 2019.
I participated in Dot Earth discussions in New York Times until it was closed. During these sessions one commentator asked me whether I know Prof. Jagdish Shula. I replied to her saying we both worked in Pune met services – I was in IMD and he was in IITM. Now, you raised that I am from Wuwt but I stopped participating in this. In fact the article published in watts up with that [wuwt] as guest article, I in fact presented it as invited talk at a national conference on 7th December 2013. Since long I am not participating in wuwt. I concentrated publishing four books and arounsd 20 articles on online journals – all on request. Also presenting invited/Keynote presentations at institutions in Hyderabad/India as I stopped travelling outside Hyderabad. Also actively participating on environmental issues in Hyderabad.
All you say is that you want me follow you leaving science path. Sorry I don't do that.
Moderator Response:[BL] Accusing everyone else of not understanding how science is done is not a good start to your participation here.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:30 AM on 12 January 2021Reviewing the horrid global 2020 wildfire season
NOAA has just put out an assessment of the costs of climate change related extreme events over the past few decades. It is not limited to wildfires. The steady increase in the yearly number of events and the yearly costs is staggering. The acceleration is interesting: the 2010s saw 119 events, of which 50 occured inthe past 3 years. Although 2020 ranked 1st with 22 events (probably due to the hurricane season), that's an average of 11.9 events per year, almost double the rate of the 2000s (6.2 per year).
The economic argument is making less and less sense, and the adverse effects of climate change are no longer some diffuse problem diluted in a somewhat distant future. It's here, now, slapping us in the face once a month.
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nigelj at 08:24 AM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Just adding to my comment @12: Building solar, wind or nuclear plants creates an insignificant carbon footprint compared with savings from avoiding fossil fuels, a new study suggests.The research, published in Nature Energy, measures the full lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of a range of sources of electricity out to 2050. It shows that the carbon footprint of solar, wind and nuclear power are many times lower than coal or gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). This remains true after accounting for emissions during manufacture, construction and fuel supply.
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nigelj at 06:13 AM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy @8, lets summarise your response to date. You talked @3 about solar and wind farms allegedly causing a warming effect. I asked you @4 for evidence of how much if any solar and wind farms would affect global temperature trend, you responded @5 by saying look at the article you posted, I couldnt find anything @7 and asked you to provide a copy and paste. You responded @8 but havent provided this information, so the information obviously just doesnt exist.
Instead you shift the goalposts to some very debatable rant about warming trends, and water vapour. So you havent proven anything much about solar and wind power, and I am going to conclude the effects of soalr and wind power on contribting to warming are neglegible as I suspected and which is obvious, until somene can actually provide somethiing more than empty waffle.
Thank's for you views on nuclear power, but the fact is it emits far less greenhouse gases than coal fired power so easily comes out way ahead of coal fired power just as renewables do. Have a nice day.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:01 AM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Thanks MA Rodger for doing that leg work, most enlighting. DSJR makes rather strange assertions about satellite temperature data, that suggest nefarious intent and are borderline conspiracy thinking. Not surprising coming from a WUWT contributor, it's their bread and butter.
We have discussed the satellite data and its shortcomings on numerous occasions and suffice to say that it is an element that adds to the overall picture but not nearly as satisfying as the real surface data found in GISTEMP or HadCRUT. The refinements and corrections to the satellite data were also discussed.
I find DSJR voluminous contribution to be a very peculiar mix designed to sound very technical (but how much is actually relevant?) yet with whoppers that don't square at all with true expertise. Curious...
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MA Rodger at 01:17 AM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy @8,
Your list of "my publications for information only" contains a 2008 book entitled 'Climate change: myths and realities' which I thought to track down to better understand your position on AGW as your position appears worryingly difficult to establish from your comments within this thread.
Your book is partially available on-line and does containI some eye-opening passages. For instance:-5.2 What is Climate Change?
"Climate Change" is a change in the "average weather". ... In the past climate change refers to the "Systematic Natural Rhythm", expressed in the form of cycles with different time scales. In recent years, it invariably refers to one component of man-induced changes, expressed in the form of global warming "trend". The major culprit in this sordid episode is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The book also has a most curious citation in Google Scholar entitled "Who is Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy?" which well explains some of the "erroneous concepts you have formed" mentioned @9.
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Eclectic at 00:01 AM on 12 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
DRSJReddy @8 ,
Some of your assertions are correct, some are dubious, and some are completely faulty. But this is not good enough in scientific discourse. You must expunge the faulty parts, in order to avoid being unscientific.
The moderator ( at #5 above ) has indicated the pathway forward for you. Please take your individual points, and discuss them at the appropriate individual threads. And please read through each of those thread's Original Post (in basic and advanced forms, where available) and please read through the subsidiary commentary posts. That may well correct some of the erroneous concepts you have formed. Quite an adventure for you, no doubt ~ but you will find it worthwhile.
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Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 17:47 PM on 11 January 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
Negelj
Global Warming: It is an estimate of the annual average part of temperature trend. The trend of 1880 to 2010 is 0.6oC per century in which global warming component is 0.3oC – 1951 to 2100 is 0.45oC – according to linear trend. But in reality it is not so as the energy component is constant over which superposed sunspot cycle. However, the reliability depends up on the data used. For example number of stations in around 1850 were < 100 and by around 1980 [started satellite data collection started around this time] they were more than 6000 and with the availability of satellite data the number of stations drastically come down to around 2500. The satellite data covered both urban-heat-island effect and rural-cold-island effect and showed practically no trend – US raw data series also showed this. However, this data was removed from internet [Reddy, 2008 – Climate Change: Myths & Realities, available on line] and replaced with new adjusted data series that matches with ground data series. Here cold-island effect is not covered. With all this, what I want say is warmings associated with solar power plants is added to global warming. How much?? This needs collection of data for all the solar power stations. Met station covers a small area only but acts like UHI effect – I saw a report “surface temperatures in downtown Sacramento at 11 a.m. June 30, 1998 – this presents high variation from area to area based on land use [met station refers to that point only]. So, solar wind power plants effect covers similar to heatwaves and coldwaves. Here general Circulation Pattern plays main role.
Nuclear Power: Nuclear power production processes contribute to “global warming process” while hydropower production processes contribute to “global cooling process”; the nuclear power production processes don’t fit into “security, safety & economy” on the one hand and on the other “environment & social” concepts; unlike other power production processes, in nuclear power production process different stages of nuclear fuel cycles are counted as separate entities while assessing the cost of power per unit and only the power production component is accounted in the estimation of cost of power per unit; carbon dioxide is released in every component of nuclear fuel cycle except the actual fusion in the reactor. Fossil fuels are involved in the mining-transport-milling conversion-processing of ore-enrichment of the fuel, in the handling of the mill tailings-in the fuel can preparation-in the construction of plant and it decommissioning-demolition, in the handling of the spent waste-in its processing and vitrification and in digging the hole in rock for its deposition, etc. and in the manufacturing of necessary required equipment in all these stages and thus their transportation. In all these stages radiological and non-radiological pollution occurs – in the case of tail pond it runs in to hundreds of years. Around 60% of the power plant cost goes towards the equipment, most of which is to be imported. The spent fuel storage is a critical issue, yet no solution was found. Also the life of reactors is very short and the dismantling of such reactors is costly & risky, etc., etc.
Michael Sweet/ Negelj
In 70&80s I worked and published several articles relating to radiation [global solar and net and evaporation/evapotranspiration] – referred in my book of 1993 [based on articles published in international and national journals]. Coal fired power plants reduces ground level temperature by reducing incoming solar radiation. In the case of Solar Panels create urban heat island condition and thus increases the surrounding temperature. In both the cases these changes depends upon several local conditions including general circulation patterns. Ground condition plays major role on radiation at the surface that define the surface temperature [hill stations, inland stations & coastal stations] – albedo factor varies. Also varies with soil conditions – black soil, red soil. Sea Breeze/land breeze – relates to temperature gradient [soil quickly warm up and quickly release the heat and water slowly warm up and slowly release heat] and general circulation pattern existing in that area plays the major role in advection.
Response to Moderator
See some of my publications for information only:
Reddy, S.J., (1993): Agroclimatic/Agrometeorological Techniques: As applicable to Dry-land Agriculture in Developing Countries, www.scribd.com/Google Books, 205p; Book Review appeared in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 67 (1994):325-327.
Reddy, S.J., (2002): Dry-land Agriculture in India: An Agroclimatological and Agrometeorological Perspective, BS Publications, Hyderabad, 429.
Reddy, S.J., (2008): Climate Change: Myths & Realities, www.scribd.com/Google Books, 176.
Reddy, S.J., (2016): Climate Change and its Impacts: Ground Realities. BS Publications, Hyderabad, 276.
Reddy, S.J., (2019a): Agroclimatic/Agrometeorological Techniques: As applicable to Dry-land Agriculture in Developing Countries [2nd Edition]. Brillion Publishing, New Delhi, 372p.2.1.2 Water vapour
Earth’s temperature is primarily driven by energy cycle; and then by the hydrological cycle. Global solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface and net radiation/radiation balance at the Earth’s surface is generally estimated as a function of hours of bright Sunshine. Total cloud cover [average of low, medium & high clouds] has a direct relation to hours of bright Sunshine (Reddy, 1974). Cube root of precipitation showed a direct relation to total solar radiation and net radiation (Reddy, 1987). In all these latitude plays major role (Reddy & Rao, 1973; Reddy, 1987). Evaporation presents a relation with net and global solar radiation (Reddy & Rao, 1973) wherein relative humidity plays an important role that reduces with increasing relative humidity. If ‘X’ is global solar radiation received under100% relative humidity then with the dryness [with relative humidity coming down] it may reach a maximum of 2X; and under net radiation also with increasing relative humidity net radiation is reduced. That means water vapour in the atmosphere is the principal component that controls the incoming and outgoing radiation and thus temperature at the Earth’s surface. Thar Desert presents high temperature with negligible water vapour in the atmosphere as maximum energy reaches the earth’s surface. However, these impacts differ under inland (dryness), hill (declining temperature with height – lapse rate) & coastal (wetness) locations and sun’s movement (latitude and declination of the Sun — seasons) (Reddy & Rao, 1973). IPCC integrated these under “climate system” and the advective condition by general circulation pattern [GCP].
Cold-island effect [I coined this, see Reddy (2008)] is part of human induced climate change associated with changes in land use and land cover. Since 1960’s to meet the food needs of ever increasing population, started intensive agriculture – conversion of dryland to wetland; & creation of water resources; etc. In this process increased levels of evaporation and evapotranspiration contributed to raise in water vapour up to around 850 mb levels in the lower atmosphere. Unusual changes in water vapour beyond 850 mb level [for example at 700 mb level] become a cause for thunderstorm activity (Reddy & Rao, 1978). Wet bulb temperature (oC) at the surface of the Earth provides the square root of total water vapour (g/cm2) in the vertical column of the atmosphere; and also wet bulb temperature (oC) is a function of dry bulb temperature (oC), relative humidity (%) and square root of station level pressure (height) relative to standard value in mb [p/1060] (Reddy, 1976). Thus, unlike CO2, water vapour presents a short life with steadily increasing with land use and land cover changes. However, met network in this zones have been sparse and thus the cold island effect is not properly accounted under global average temperature computations. Though satellite data takes this in to account, this data series were withdrawn from the internet and introduced new adjusted data series that matches with adjusted ground data series. Annual state-wise temperature data series in India wherein intensive agriculture practices are existing, namely Punjab, Haryana & UP belt, showed decreasing trend in annual average temperature – cooling. Some of these are explained below:Reddy (1983) presented a daily soil water balance model that computes daily evapotranspiration, known as ICSWAB Model. The daily soil water balance equation is generally written as:
▲Mn = Rn – AEn – ROn - Dn
In the above equation left to right represent the soil moisture change, rainfall or irrigation, actual evapotranspiration, surface runoff and deep drainage on a given day (n). The term Actual Evapotranspiration [AEn] is to be estimated as a function of f(E), f(S) & f(C), wherein they represent functions of evaporative demand on day n, soil & crop factors, respectively. As these three factors are mutually interactive, the multiplicative type of function is used.
AEn = f(En) x f(S) x f(C)
However, the crop factor does not act independently of the soil factor. Thus it is given as:
AEn = f(En) x f(S,C) and f(S,C) = K x bn
Where f(S,C) is the effective soil factor, K = soil water holding capacity [that varies with soil type] in mm and bn is the crop growth stage [that vary with crop & cropping pattern] factor that varies between 0.02 to 0.24 — fallow to full crop cover conditions (with leaf area index crossing 2.75). Evaporative demand is expressed by the terms evaporation and/or evapotranspiration. Evaporation (E) and evapotranspiration (PE) are related as:
PE = 0.85 x E [with mesh cover] or = 0.75 x E [without mesh cover].
However, the relationship holds good only under non-advective conditions [i.e., under wind speeds less than 2.5 m/sec]. Under advective conditions E is influenced more by advection compared to PE. In the case of PE, by definition, no soil evaporation takes place and thus PE relates to transpiration only – where the crop grows on conserved soil moisture with negligible soil evaporation. With the presence of soil evaporation, the potential evapotranspiration reaches as high as 1.2 x PE or E with mesh cover. McKenney & Rosenberg (1993) studied sensitivity of some potential evapotranspiration estimation methods to climate change. The widely used methods are Thornthwaite and Penman presented 750 mm and 1500 mm wherein Thornthwaite method is basically uses temperature and Penman uses several meteorological parameters (Reddy, 1995).
In this process the temperature is controlled by solar energy but moisture under different soil types [water holding capacity] it is modified. This modified temperature cause actual evapotranspiration and thus water vapour. This is a vicious circle. For example average annual temperature in red soils Anantapur it is 27.6oC; in deep black soils Kadapa it is 29.25oC & in medium soils Kurnool it is 28.05oC. That means, local temperature is controlled by soils.
Reddy (1976a&b) presented a method of estimating precipitable water in the entire column of the atmosphere at a given location using Wet Bulb Temperature. The equations are given as follows:Tw = T x [0.45 + 0.006 x h x (p/1060)1/2]
W = c’ x Tw2
Where T & Tw are dry and wet bulb temperatures in oC; h is the relative humidity in %; p is the annual normal station level pressure in mb [1060 normal pressure in mb, a constant] ; W is the precipitable water vapour in gm/cm2 and c’ is the regression coefficient.
WMO (1966) presented methods to separate trend from natural rhythmic variations in rainfall and assessing the cycles if any. (Late) Dr. B. Parthasarathy from IITM/Pune used these techniques in Indian rainfall analysis. Reddy (2008) presented such analysis with global average annual temperature anomaly data series of 1880 to 2010 and found the natural cycle of 60-years varying between -0.3 to +0.3oC & trend of 0.6oC per century [Reddy, 2008]. This is based on adjusted data series but in USA raw data [Reddy, 2016] there is no trend. The hottest daily temperature data series of Sydney in Australia shows no trend [Reddy, 2019a]. Thus, the trend needs correction if the starting and ending point parts are in the same phase of the cycle – below and below or above and above the average parts. During 1880 to 2010 period two full 60-year cycles are covered and thus, no need to correct the trend as the trend passes through the mean points of the two cycles.3.2.4 What is global warming part of the trend?
According to IPCC AR5, this trend of 0.6oC per century is not global warming but it consists of several factors:
a. More than half is [human induced] greenhouse effect part:
i. It consists of global warming component & aerosols component, etc. If we assume global warming component alone is 50% of the total trend, then it will be 0.3oC per Century under linear trend;
ii. Global warming starting year is 1951 & thus the global warming from 1951 to 2100 [150 years] is 0.45oC under linear trend;
iii. But in nature this can’t be linear as the energy is constant and thus CSF can’t be a constant but it should be decreasing non-linearly;
iv. Under non-linear condition by 2100 the global warming will be far less than 0.45oC and thus the trend will be far less than half;
b. Less than half the trend is ecological changes [land use and land cover change] part – mostly local & regional factors:
i. This consists of urban-heat-island effect and rural-cold-island effect;
1. Urban-heat-island effect – with the concentrated met network overestimates warming;
2. Rural-cold-island effect – with the sparse met network underestimates cooling;2.2.1 Uncertainty on “Climate Sensitivity Factor”
The word “climate Crisis” is primarily linked to global warming. To know whether there is really global warming, if so how much, climate sensitivity factor plays the main role. Climate sensitivity is a measure [oC/(W/m2)] – how much warming we expect (both near-term and long-term) for a given increase in CO2? According to Mark, D. Zilinka (2020), “Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to the CO2 doubling, has been persistently uncertain”.
Recent modelling data suggests the climate is considerably more sensitive to carbon emissions than previously believed, and experts said the projections had the potential to be “incredibly alarming”, though they stressed further research would be needed to validate the new numbers. Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. “Climate sensitivity is the holy grail of climate science. It is the prime indicator of climate risk.
The role of clouds is one of the most uncertain areas in climate science because they are hard to measure and, depending on altitude, droplet temperature and other factors can play either a warming or a cooling role. For decades, this has been the focus of fierce academic disputes. Catherine Senior, head of understanding climate change at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said more studies and more data are needed to fully understand the role of clouds and aerosols. With this vital disputes how anyone can say there is global warming without solving this issue; so I said “global warming hysteria factor is climate crisis”.Moderator Response:[BL]
Thank you for taking the time to share with us. Skeptical Science is a user forum wherein the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself. Ideology and politics get checked at the keyboard.
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