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Comments 63251 to 63300:

63251. Rob Painting at 19:02 PM on 24 February 2012
       Search For 'Missing Heat' Confirms More Global Warming 'In The Pipeline'
       Neil - sorry but I don't have the same reverence you have toward the scientific literature, there is plenty of junk in there too - check out Roy Spencer and Richard Lindzen's work for instance. A far more realistic scenario is that considered in Armour & Roe (2011) - Climate commitment in an uncertain world: They state: "Turning now to the case in which all anthropogenic emissions cease, there is an immediate unmasking of greenhouse gas forcing as aerosols are quickly washed from the atmosphere. The effect is an abrupt rise in climate forcing (Figure 1a) to a peak value of around 2.7 W m−2 , which is relatively well constrained as it depends only on greenhouse gases. The response is a rapid warming (Figure 1b), with a transient commitment of up to 0.9°C above the modern temperature. Thereafter, forcing declines over the next few centuries as greenhouse gases are partially, but not completely, removed from the atmosphere" Neil -"This is is all consistent. If emissions "stop" the surface does not warm, but the ocean continues to warm" That makes no sense at all. How can the ocean warm without eventually exchanging that heat to the atmosphere?
63252. Doug Hutcheson at 19:00 PM on 24 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
       idunno @ 16 The Monckton attack at the link you posted is typical of the chappie. In this case, he is not only an expert on Climate Science, he is also a consultant on American state and federal law. His degree is in what? Classical Basket-weaving? He certainly weaves an impressive fabric from broken threads of logic. It is a shame that a facile mind like his cannot be directed to a pursuit more likely to benefit his fellow man. Oh, I forgot, that is not his agenda, is it?
63253. Tom Curtis at 18:17 PM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       CraigR @62, the truth is not identified by finding two factions and looking for a middle opinion, it is identified by examining the evidence and seeing how various theories stack up. As it happens, one side spends almost all of the available money to it doing just that. The other side pays people money based on the conclusion they reach, not on the evidence they supply or the rigorousness of their approach. Describing the first as an "industry" misses the essential differences between their approach. If you disagree with this assessment, you are more than welcome to take up the cudgels and show how Christopher Monckton (closely associated with the Heartland Institute) has not serially misrepresented, scientists and scientific data. Until you do, you have no business representing the sides as being equivalent when clearly they are not.
63254. Doug Hutcheson at 17:42 PM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       CraigR @ 62

       "I believe the "truth" is generally found some where in the middle"

       What truth is in the middle of which extremes, precisely? Either Heartland financially supports groups and individuals in efforts to undermine the greater body of established climate science, or they don't. There is no half-way. Your stance is akin to saying "the truth about CO2 is half-way between 'it is a greenhouse gas' and 'it is not a greenhouse gas'" i.e: a logical impossibility.
63255. CraigR at 15:56 PM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       "International Climate Denial Spin Machine" but yet a label like "The Climate Change Industry" some how is viewed as inappropriate, to each their own I guess. From my understanding most organizations would probably put forward plans, agendas and processes that would most benefit their organization. I doubt that an organization would pick a path that would see it's demise on purpose (both sides). I believe the "truth" is generally found some where in the middle, not unlike the current Labor leadership tussle, (maybe their just as bad as each other, sorry I digress) to much time and vested interests have cemented peoples positions. I fear that the "truth" has been lost sometime ago and the willingness to share openly, discuss respectfully and even the opportunity for some to say "I was mistaken" just seems to hard now to admit and we as a society are the poorer for it.
63256. DSL at 15:26 PM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       vor: "You do not use computers to do anything more than play games with role playing software, you do not pretend you can guess the future. That tends to come back and bite you in the tushy." What the heck is that? Are you saying that any attempt to predict the future is useless? Or are you saying that computer models aren't the best way to predict (if so, you got something better?)? Or are you saying that a specific model has problems, problems which you are able to detail/explain? Or are you saying that one person's prediction about climate refugees casts doubt on the scientific work of thousands? A little clarity, if you don't mind.
63257. muoncounter at 14:09 PM on 24 February 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       dana1981: "... hold them accountable." Good luck with that. You're talking about the crowd that says 'we'll accept the BEST results even if they don't agree with our position' ... until the BEST results didn't agree with their position. The crowd that quickly 'changes the metric' when they don't get what they want. All Scafetta needs to do is add another cycle.
63258. scaddenp at 13:59 PM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       VoR - let me acquaint you with another way this site works. Your "model predictions are wrong" is list of cherry-picked, long-debunked guff from likes of Tisdale, Watts, CO2"science". This is not how it is done. If you want to contest model/observations, first you reference the published science source that makes the prediction. That takes case of the strawman arguments. Next you reference the published data that refutes it. That way we can see if it fair prediction or just cherry-picking. Also, models are tied to scenarios. Ie "IF the forcings are this, THEN the climate will this". That beats false prediction. Now the models stuff out miles of predictions and some are more robust than others. eg trends in global climate parameters are pretty robust. Regional prediction is less robust especially when it depends on how ENSO will change (if it does) with rising temperature. That is an open question.
63259. muoncounter at 13:45 PM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       Adelady#496 vor's objection to use of 2100 as an endpoint is also utterly without meaning. It's arbitrary. And vor provides a good example of the fact that everybody and their dog are checking those predictions at least annually. This is the real issue that vor doesn't want to face: What data do the checkers (and their dogs) use to check the predictions? Is it a carefully cherrypicked few years ('it hasn't warmed since last week!')? Is it just one parameter of particular interest ('it's snowing in Europe!')? Is it just one prediction ('my TV news said there aren't any climate refugees!')? Or is it the entire record (as F&R2011 analyzed, as BEST verified) and the entire spectrum of the evidence (as we see here)?
63260. IanC at 13:44 PM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       Yogi 1286, The temperature lines in the graph indicates the emission spectrum of a black body at that temperature. By comparing the irradiance to these curves you can get a sense of which part of the atmosphere the emission is from. The reason why the emission in the downwelling is at 265K is because it will be from CO2 that is relatively close to the surface. Since it is measured in the arctic it sounds about right. On the other hand in the graph at 20km looking down, it will be from CO2 that is fin the upper troposphere/stratosphere, explaining the lower brightness temperature.
63261. muoncounter at 13:29 PM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       yogi#1276: "I`m more interested in ..." Sorry, I must have misread your comments here and here. An abrupt change in interest is usually a sign that the given answer was accepted and we're moving on. So the 'water is much more abundant than CO2 and should thus be much more of a GHG' issue is settled. Especially since it's off topic for this thread. Look here.
63262. YOGI at 13:27 PM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       sorry, another typo, that should have been.. The two plots show that in the 600 to 750 cm-1 band, 265K radiate downwards, but only 225K upwards. How is that possible ?
63263. adelady at 13:26 PM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       vor. Well here's the very latest data-model comparison for the completed 2011 year at RealClimate. I'm not sure how much effort should be expended on detailed projections for 100+ years. You can just see how much difference arises from using various scenarios. Climate might be difficult, but predicting what people might do and when they might do it is even more so. One question. Were you looking at the 'basic' or the 'intermediate' version of this post. And a quiet word in your shell-like "That's a fine parameter for a scientific experiment, setting the end point beyond observable time, possible a clue as to the general integrity of the whole project?" is as close to an accusation of fraud as dammit is to swearing. Don't be surprised if the moderators give you a hard time.
63264. Albatross at 13:23 PM on 24 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Eric @53, Thanks for your point-by-pint reply. I still have some issues with your responses, such as citing a 20 plus year old modelling paper @#4. But I do not have time right now to address those concerns/issues. It seems though that we are in agreement that Meyer was either wrong or sloppy or too simplistic on numerous key points.
63265. Albatross at 13:20 PM on 24 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Pete @61, That Trenberth et al. (2003) paper that you linked us to is great, one of my favourites!
63266. Pete Dunkelberg at 13:04 PM on 24 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       One other comment while I'm on the subject: We use the expression "The air holds water" but this is not quite right. Air is mainly oxygen and nitrogen and these do not "hold" H2O. From the point of view of a water molecule breaking free of the liquid surface, air is virtually empty space. The equilibrium vapor pressure depends on temperature. The space in a closed jar with some water at the bottom will contain the same amount of water in the absence or presence of air.
63267. Pete Dunkelberg at 13:02 PM on 24 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Glenn Tamblyn @ 51, I see your point. It's worth noting though that in the atmosphere there is not the straight line from evaporation to condensation to precipitation that happens in a closed jar. The column of air above an area may on average contain about 25mm, about an inch of water (if it all rained out). After a rain the air is still damp, missing only about 7 mm of the 25 it might have had. At the same time, over an inch of rain may have fallen. What's going on? You might enjoy this paper which starts out "Why does it rain?"
63268. Pete Dunkelberg at 13:00 PM on 24 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       actually thoughful @ 52, "Protect yourself at all times." That's the first rule of boxing. It's true that Meyer mentions a possible water vapor feedback, but this is just to set you up. Read on and see that he delivers blow after blow against it (for a scientifically unsophisticated audience). http://www.forbes.com/sites/warrenmeyer/2012/02/09/understanding-the-global-warming-debate/print/ If a climate change denier says the sky is blue, go outside and check.
63269. YOGI at 12:57 PM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       typo... The S.O.D. article does NOT answer my question
63270. John Hartz at 12:52 PM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       CraigR: The fossil-fuel industry collectively stands to realize billions of dollars in profits at stake if a "business-as-usual" emissions scenario is maintained over the next decades. It created and continues to fund the global Climate Denial Spin Machine whose sole purpose is to convince the general public and policymakers that taking swift and meaningful actions to reduce manmade GHG emissions on a global scale is not necessary.
63271. voice of reason at 12:43 PM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       I've been busy going through my own archives, someone here has taken the trouble to compare as many predictions from models with the following reality as possible, (-Snip-). But as people have incredibly short memories and attention spans unless recorded nearly everyone's off on a new trip (-Snip-), the more so the greater ahead they are predicted. 2100 would make a perfect one, as when picked by the IPCC no one on earth could fulfil the experiment as they'd have needed to be 110 at the very youngest. (-Snip-) http://www.c3headlines.com/predictionsforecasts/
       Response:

       [DB] Time to acquaint yourself with this site's Comments Policy.  You should be familiar with it:  that of the SkS FB page was modeled on it.

       Multiple violations of the Comments Policy snipped.

63272. John Hartz at 12:42 PM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       CraigR: Thanks to the International Climate Denial Spin Machine created by the Koch brothers, Robert Murdoch, and their ilk, a propaganda generator like the Heartland Institute does not have to be large and have a big budget in order to impact public opinion and public policy. In other words, the Heartland Institute does not operate in a vacuum.
63273. John Hartz at 12:39 PM on 24 February 2012
       Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
       @GreenCooling #54: You'll also be pleased to know that many SkS authors post on the comment threads to articles about climate change that are posted on Forbes. Unfortunately, James Taylor, is not the only climate denier posting so-called "op-eds" on Forbes on a regular basis.
63274. John Hartz at 12:34 PM on 24 February 2012
       Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
       @GreenCooling #54: “Been their done that” The lead-in to Skepticism about Lower Atmosphere Temperature Data .reads as follows: “Note: This article was submitted to Forbes as a correction to the op-ed by James Taylor in question, but Forbes declined to publish it, so instead we're posting it here.” Dana’s article was posted on SkS on Jan 8, 2012.
63275. YOGI at 12:33 PM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       The S.O.D. article does answer my question, it just says.. "The atmosphere, once heated up, radiates equally in all directions. Some of this is downward."
63276. GreenCooling at 12:33 PM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
       Here's a bit more from Heartland's Joe Bast about their intent behind the NIPCC and "Climate Change Reconsidered" (and associated projects) from their 2012 first quarter Quarterly Performance Report. I hope this is useful in confirming what we are up against at least. Four Projects on Global Warming "Researchers at The Heartland Institute recog- nized, earlier than most, that scientific uncertainty about the true causes and consequences of climate change makes costly efforts to reduce human greenhouse gas emissions unnecessary. In 2012 we are pursuing four projects on global warming. "The first is sponsoring and promoting the work of the Nongovernmental Interna- tional Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), an international network of scientists who write and speak out on climate change. With Heartland’s support, this team of scientists produced Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the NIPCC, and more recently Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report. Each volume is a comprehensive and authoritative rebuttal of the United Nations’ IPCC reports. "We are currently working on promoting these volumes and preparing for publication of a third volume for release in 2013. "The second project is creation of a global warming curriculum for K-12 schools. Many people lament the absence of educational material that isn’t alarmist or overtly political. "Late last year, we found a curriculum expert who is also an expert on the global warming controversy. We think he can finally break the code on getting sound science and economics into classrooms. "The third global warming project is publication of a great new book by Rael Isaac, titled Roosters of the Apocalypse. Rael, a sociologist who has studied the origins and mo- tivation of apocalyptic movements, examines the global warming movement and finds it is rooted in irrational fears and beliefs that have no scientific justifications. "The fourth global warming project will change how weathermen report new temperature records, and in the process help wean some of them from the alarmist point of view. We are working to create a Web site that will access newly available temperature data from a set of high-quality temperature stations created by the National Aeronautics and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). "Our new Web site will convert the data into easy-to-understand graphs that can be easily found and understood by weathermen and the general interested public. The result: fewer weathermen bamboozled into reporting fake temperature records, and one fewer tool in the toolbox of global warming alarmists." ENDS As legal prescriptions in the US against telling people BS (Bad Science, of course) appear rather nebulous, we can always hope that like Al Capone, Heartland gets sent down for breaching tax laws? I'm pretty confident this scandal has not escaped the attention of the IRS and it will be interesting to see how they respond. While communicating the science clearly and comprehensibly is of paramount importance, we need to be aware of how the forces of darkness are attempting to influence the debate, and to continue to encourage and support the mounting of both coordinated and independent self-organised responses to confront and expose the deniers.
63277. scaddenp at 12:27 PM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       The article also makes claims based a map linked to here An interesting message can be found there now. Sounds like some journalist axe-grinding not science.
63278. JMurphy at 12:26 PM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       CraigR (if you were responding to me) what funding would you be seeking that you reckon would be denied to you if you declared yourself a "skeptic" ?
63279. scaddenp at 12:24 PM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       VoR- Did you read the original BBC? First, this is not based on climate models (which are matching predictions just fine), nor is about "climate" refugees. Second estimating whether a person is an environmental refugee is difficult and the number is absolutely not zero. A comparable number would have to come from the same source. "You do not use computers to do anything more than play games with role playing software, you do not pretend you can guess the future" That's sailing very close to the wind on the comments policy here. Please stick to supported facts.
63280. CraigR at 12:02 PM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       I wrote ... "therefore the issue I put forward is not limited to just "climate scientists" it is broader than that"
63281. GreenCooling at 12:00 PM on 24 February 2012
       Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
       Many thanks, most illuminating. Heartland are also good enough to post their very revealing first quarter 2012 "Quarterly Performance Report" at their site, how long they leave it there seems like an open question. In case they do feel sufficiently embarrassed to remove it, here's some edited highlights, which I hope are of interest here. pp. 2-3 "Four Projects on Global Warming" "Researchers at The Heartland Institute recognized, earlier than most, that scientific uncertainty about the true causes and consequences of climate change makes costly efforts to reduce human greenhouse gas emissions unnecessary. In 2012 we are pursuing four projects on global warming. "The first is sponsoring and promoting the work of the Nongovernmental Interna- tional Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), an international network of scientists who write and speak out on climate change. With Heartland’s support, this team of scientists produced Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the NIPCC, and more recently Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report. Each volume is a comprehensive and authoritative rebuttal of the United Nations’ IPCC reports. "We are currently working on promoting these volumes and preparing for publication of a third volume for release in 2013. "The second project is creation of a global warming curriculum for K-12 schools. Many people lament the absence of educational material that isn’t alarmist or overtly political. "Late last year, we found a curriculum expert who is also an expert on the global warming controversy. We think he can finally break the code on getting sound science and ecoomics into classrooms. "The third global warming project is publication of a great new book by Rael Isaac, titled Roosters of the Apocalypse. Rael, a sociologist who has studied the origins and mo- tivation of apocalyptic movements, examines the global warming movement and finds it is rooted in irrational fears and beliefs that have no scientific justifications. "The fourth global warming project will change how weathermen report new temper- ature records, and in the process help wean some of them from the alarmist point of view. We are working to create a Web site that will access newly available temperature data from a set of high-quality temperature stations created by the National Aeronautics and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). "Our new Web site will convert the data into easy-to-understand graphs that can be easily found and understood by weathermen and the general interested public. The result: fewer weathermen bamboozled into reporting fake temperature records, and one fewer tool in the toolbox of global warming alarmists. Hydraulic Fracturing "Hydraulic fracturing, popularly known as “fracking,” is a process whereby water, sand, and small amounts of chemicals (surfactants) are injected into oil and natural gas formations to make the energy resources easier to extract. Fracking has been used safely for more than 50 years. "Fracking became controversial in 2010 and 2011 because environmentalists, hoping to prevent the development of large reserves of oil and natural gas, invented charges that fracking poses environmental and safety risks. "Heartland has been one of the most outspoken defenders of fracking in the U.S. We expect to ramp up that effort and move to the front lines of the battle." James Taylor has a fair bit to say on Climategate 2 and Natural Gas too, but this from p.9 is of particular interest: "A Primer on Climate Realism" "Forbes magazine asked James to write an article for its print magazine explaining how sound science refutes global warming alarmism. His article was published in Forbes’ December 5 issue. "James explained, “The central issues in the global warming debate have little to do with whether or not temperatures have warmed during the past century. Nearly all scientists agree that temperatures have indeed warmed during the past 100 years, just as tempera- tures have warmed (and cooled) many times in previous centuries. The more important issues are whether current temperatures are abnormally warm in a longer-term perspective and whether present warming trends threaten disaster in the foreseeable future.” "James noted global temperatures for the vast majority of the past 10,000 years have been significantly warmer than today. He also documented how warmer temperatures always have benefited human welfare. “During the past century, as global temperatures have risen, forests have expanded, deserts have retreated, soil moisture has improved, crops have flourished and extreme weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes have become less frequent,” he wrote. “Proponents of an imminent global warming crisis may present interesting theories about catastrophes that may occur if the Earth returns to the warmer temperatures that pre- dominated during most of the past 10,000 years, but such theories are strongly contradicted by thousands of years of real-world data and real-world climate observations. The Scientific Method dictates that real-world observations trump speculative theory, not the other way around,” James concluded. Why Forbes continues to give Taylor Op-Ed space to defend his organisation this week is beyond my comprehension, but at least they are good enough to let people respond in the comments. Perhaps SkS might like to seek a right of reply too?
63282. scaddenp at 11:57 AM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       "is there something wrong with NOAA and ISCCP data ?" No, only with Humlum's representation of it. Read their website instead. (And put "humlum" into the search box here for more examples of stuff from him). And if you look closely, you will see the textbook that the data came from. And below it, the link to Science of Doom which goes into the science behind your questions in considerable detail over a 10 part series. I highly recommend you to look at it. More detail than a blog commentary can give plus links to the textbooks and papers.
63283. scaddenp at 11:50 AM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       Climate models have no skill at decadal prediction where internal variability dominates, nor do they pretend to. For study of that internal variability, F&R demonstrate how ENSO, solar and aerosols account for most of variability while the underlying trend follows IPCC predictions. ENSO is hard to predict even months out let alone be part of climate models. You can find a better comparison of model versus data here Sealevel drop is not due to the ice suddenly stopping to melt because of cooler temperatures. Far from it - ice continues to decline. Instead it is due to La nina precipitation change dumping water on land. See here for more discussion and here for GRACE data showing where the water went.
63284. YOGI at 11:49 AM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       scaddenp*misinformation sites * is there something wrong with NOAA and ISCCP data ? And how do I know that the data in graph at the head of this article is good data ? The two plots show that in the 600 and 750 cm-1 band, 265Mw radiate downwards, but only 225Mw upwards. How is that possible ?
63285. voice of reason at 11:40 AM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       I'll add a nice little discussion here following the revelation that on far easier to measure population data the true figure of climate refugees (based on what the models said would happen) in 2010 was zero. http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2011/04/12/flashback-2005-un-predicts-50-million-global-warming-refugees-2010 You do not use computers to do anything more than play games with role playing software, you do not pretend you can guess the future. That tends to come back and bite you in the tushy.
63286. voice of reason at 11:28 AM on 24 February 2012
       Models are unreliable
       Having been requested to post my view on models here rather than Facebook am happy to add my four pence worth (-Snip-). The 2011 temperature was below the IPCC projection for no increase in CO2 (after quite a large one) while your own sea level example doesn't seem to be consistent with others either in the past (2003, reported in 2008) http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/05/06/slower-sea-level-rise/ or the present (note that you said the projection may have been conservative, but in a truly chaotic system chaotic things happen, in fact they have to as that is its nature) http://www.real-science.com/sea-level-continues-historic-decline Your articles are only as good as the latest data and can so quickly become out of date, (-Snip-). (-Snip-).
       Response:

       [DB] Time to acquaint yourself with this site's Comments Policy.  You should be familiar with it:  that of the SkS FB page was modeled on it.

       Multiple violations of the Comments Policy snipped.

63287. JMurphy at 10:59 AM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       CraigR wrote : "If I was to seek out funding and declared myself a "skeptic" I doubt funding would be given.....simply put if the world views of the decision makers changed so would the funding." Do you have any evidence to back up your doubts about funding ? Don't Lindzen and Spencer get funding ?
63288. Glenn Tamblyn at 10:58 AM on 24 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       SB As we noted in recent posts here and here, Ocean Heat Content is the big ticket item, the dog that wags the tail. And since it is still rising, it completely slam-dunks the 'its stopped warming meme' So a real problem for Meyer and the view he puts up? Thats an understatement.
63289. scaddenp at 10:25 AM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       Discussion of cloud and humidity does not belong here. DSL has given you the link to the correct thread - and to what is wrong with the data in your links. You will linking to science instead of misinformation sites a better idea. As to water overlap, the real code (referenced) integrates over the full vertical profile of the atmosphere. You cannot draw accurate conclusions from simplistic constructions.
63290. CraigR at 10:21 AM on 24 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       I said ... "Decisions are made and financial benefits are provided particularly from convinced governments to enterprises, groups & business that have a vested interest in proposed solutions and ongoing research" therefore the issue I put forward is not limited to just "climate scientists" it is broader than that. It is quite clear it is not a level playing field. If I was to seek out funding and declared myself a "skeptic" I doubt funding would be given.....simply put if the world views of the decision makers changed so would the funding. I think declaring someone anti-science or pro-science in an effort to discredit them or place them above others is simply wrong "science" is to broader a topic for such generalizations.
63291. YOGI at 10:07 AM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       KR: "data on cloud amounts don't show a huge amount of change with temperature" 4% http://www.climate4you.com/images/CloudCoverAllLevel%20AndWaterColumnSince1983.gif "Trenberth estimates that we've seen an increase of ~4% to the total amount of atmospheric water vapor since ~1975" http://www.climate4you.com/images/TotalColumnWaterVapourDifferentAltitudesObservationsSince1983.gif
63292. dana1981 at 09:55 AM on 24 February 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       We are trying to get these predictions on the record to hold them accountable. Hence the Lessons from Predictions series.
63293. YOGI at 09:46 AM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       scaddenp, I meant that CO2 and water overlap the same absorption band at 600 and 750 cm-1 so some of that effect there must be partly due to the water vapour. Water vapour is 1-4% lower down, so if we say 2%, thats 51 times the amount of CO2, and the the paper you linked says 75.5% for clouds and WV, and a mean of 17.5 for CO2. Which imply volume for volume, CO2 has about 12 times the warming potential of water vapour (from those figures).
63294. DSL at 09:44 AM on 24 February 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       Why, wingding? They'll still be publishing the same stuff at WUWT in 2020, oblivious.
63295. wingding at 09:37 AM on 24 February 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       hmm I really need to make a list of all the people who in 2020 will have to apologize for predicting cooling.
63296. DSL at 09:34 AM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       YOGI, what you're looking for is probably right here, in rebuttal to our star of the month, Lord Viscount Ubermensch Protector of the Realm and the Cure for Cancer, Christopher Monckton.
63297. KR at 09:14 AM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       YOGI - You might be interested in looking at the difference between relative and absolute humidity. A certain relative humidity is required to form clouds (data on cloud amounts don't show a huge amount of change with temperature - 'tho what kind of cloud is going to be very important). Clouds, through precipitation, form an upper limit on the amount of relative humidity - past a certain relative humidity it simply rains or snows. However, as the air warms, the absolute humidity required to give a particular relative humidity increases - warmer air can hold more total water vapor. Trenberth estimates that we've seen an increase of ~4% to the total amount of atmospheric water vapor since ~1975, or roughly (if I recall correctly) the equivalent of Lake Erie. And all that water vapor acts in feedback as a greenhouse gas.
63298. Doc Snow at 09:05 AM on 24 February 2012
       Scafetta's Widget Problems
       les, I suspect you're being rhetorical? Of course, WUWT espouses ABC--"anything but carbon." They seem to find consistency overrated.
63299. YOGI at 09:01 AM on 24 February 2012
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       muoncounter I`m more interested in seeing how much changes in clouds and humidity follow changes in global temperature since 1985. http://www.climate4you.com/ see the graphs in the Clouds + Climate section. I cant see any evidence for positive feedbacks on water vapour/clouds either.
63300. SocialBlunder at 08:24 AM on 24 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       There is a sentence that struck me as odd in the article: "Even more important for scientists (since the oceans are a much larger heat reservoir than the atmosphere) is the fact that the new ARGO floating temperature stations have measured little or no increase in ocean heat content since they were put in service in 2003." This contradicts what I see in OHC graphs presumably using ARGO data: and Since he is depending on level ocean temperature to cast doubt on global warming, this seems like a real problem.

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