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Comments 64201 to 64250:

  1. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    Glenn's post is excellent for it's clear-mindedness. It really highlights why the natural cycle idea, when addressed at the right scale, really is an instance of magical thinking, given the data we have in hand.
  2. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    Outstandingly good article, Glenn. Its clear, concise and easily understood. You've slam dunked an argument the so called skeptics have been trotting out quite a bit lately.
  3. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    John Mashey: "To summarize a long story, documented in detail, IRS rules generally forbid US 501(c)(3) charities from sending grants to foreign non-charities except under restricted circumstances ... and saying that such foreign recipients need not be monitored because they are "friends" doesn't cut it." The directors and officers of Heartland should bone up on the legal phrase "piercing the corporate veil". The IRS knows what it means ...
  4. Dikran Marsupial at 09:13 AM on 17 February 2012
    Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Eric, in the AGW debate, there obviously is a need to judge as there are likely to be consequences to out fossil fuel use. So we need to judge the competing hypothesis to decide on what action we should take or not take.
  5. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Dikran, you can always delay judgement when there is no need to judge.
  6. Dikran Marsupial at 09:09 AM on 17 February 2012
    Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Eric (skeptic) no, that isn't skepticism, that is sitting on the fence. You can always delay judgment whilst gathering data indefinitely and call it skepticism. Wikipedia says: Skepticism or Scepticism has many definitions, but generally refers to any questioning attitude towards knowledge, facts, or opinions/beliefs stated as facts,[1] or doubt regarding claims that are taken for granted elsewhere. Note that a questioning attitude does not preclude comming to a conclusion.
  7. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Being a skeptic means delaying judgement while gathering as much data as possible for as long as possible. I believe the document in question is fake, but I am being selectively skeptic (noting the lack of evidence that it was created by Heartland in metadata, quality and structure, but ignoring the actual content). A true skeptic would not believe or disbelieve the document at this point.
  8. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Camburn... "Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves." That strikes me as a rather absurd statement. If science operated that way nothing would ever get accomplished because you'd have millions of interpretations on any given published set of data. Instead, why not do what science has always done. Allow scientists to do research and try to publish their findings. If their findings make it through peer review then the broader community has the chance to either point out mistakes or try to replicate it to see if they get the same or similar results, or see if they can improve on the methods and get more robust results. This is my complaint about the whole "climate audit" idiocy. If any given piece of published science is wrong, let it be wrong. Subsequent research will show it to be the case and the research in error will fade from prominence. Understanding how wrong answers came to be is just as important as how correct answers are found. Essentially, if all historical science had to go through "skeptical audits" we'd have to discard 90% of all of science that has preceded. Applying an audit process to science would stop science dead in it's tracks today... But then again, maybe that's their point.
  9. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Camburn: "Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves." And when someone points out an error or weakness in the methodology of your interpretation . . . ?
  10. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves. Incompetence and arrogance, together at last!
  11. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Don’t forget we’re not only dealing with the “Denial” machine but also the “Doubt” machine. The Heartland Institute has had plenty of practice at both so I wouldn’t believe anything this crew say. The worm has turned.
  12. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    There is a certain irony in Jim Lakely, Heartland's communication director, apparently not responding to Suzanne Goldenberg's request for them to confirm the authenticity of the fundraising e-mail - from The Guardian He did not respond to a request to characterise the campaign, or send a copy of the fundraising email. He also refused to comment on the authenticity of a fundraising email obtained by the Mother Jones website on Thursday.
  13. Dikran Marsupial at 07:54 AM on 17 February 2012
    Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Camburn wrote: "Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves." No, that isn't skepticism, it is a symptom of Dunning-Kruger syndrome. Do you let doctors, with many years of medical training, interpret the medical data for you, or do you do it yourself? I suspect the former, and with good reason.
  14. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    scaddenp@185: I don't know how many hits they would have. I haven't been to their site, do they have a hit counter? I think our differences are ones of interpretation of the data. Joshua@182: My response to you was to your last paragraph @178.
  15. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Camburn - "Who payed any attention". Well how many hits does NIPCC give you let alone the regurgitation of their nonsense on blogs and media worldwide. 2/ Which millions are these? And I'd like to some evidence of you analyzing the data yourself. So far, you seem happy to prefer other's disinformation that fits your biases.
  16. apiratelooksat50 at 07:10 AM on 17 February 2012
    Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    ScaredAmoeba at 163 I agree with your post. If the "strategy" document is a fake and can be linked to an entity, it will be at a minimum a severe embarrassment to the person who generated and the organization to which they are connected.
  17. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    And I would love to see who has been "promoting AGW" ! Who are these AGW 'promoters', Camburn ?
  18. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Camburn - Maybe you could explain what your response had to do with my comment?
  19. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Joshua@178: One could pose the question: 1. Who payed any attention The Heartland Institute? 2. What importance would a few million dollars make compared to the millions spent promoting AGW? Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves.
  20. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Martin asks:
    Has anybody described as "one of the more neutral voices with big audiences", i.e. Revkin or Curry commented upon being so popular with HI?
    Well it looks like Revkin has gone from hero ("one of the more neutral voices with big audiences") to zero ("Since the documents were obviously stolen and marked "confidential," what Revkin did was not only unethical, it was also probably illegal".) over the past day or so. Interesting that they call it a "legal defense fund" shouldn't they have called it a "legal offense fund"? Unless they are looking a few weeks down the road when the IRS will be after them.
  21. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I also find this quote from his fund raising email particularly interesting: "We have taken measures to ensure that we aren't victims of identity theft and computer fraud again, but in this age of identity theft and hacking, I can't promise it won't ever happen again." (Emphasis mine) Yep, that for sure will get new funds just pouring in from anonymous donors.
  22. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    An observation. A massive number of electrons are being spent determining whether that one document is a fake or not. Presumably, such a large number of electrons would indicate that the authenticity of the documents is a very important issue. Well, consider this: What % of people would view the significance of the Heartland documents differently, depending on a final proof of that one document's authenticity? Would "skeptics" change their perspective on the importance of the documents if they saw definitive proof that the one document is authentic? Would "realists" change their perspective on the importance of the documents if they saw definitive proof that the one document is a "fake?" My guess is that the # of climate debaters who might actually attach any real importance to the authenticity of that one document (in other words, have their view significantly altered contingent on proof) could be counted on one hand, although the # of climate debaters who will argue with great urgency about the authenticity of that document is quite large, indeed.
  23. Video of Chuck Kutscher debunking climate skeptic arguments
    Dr. Kutscher should be invited to give his presentation to every state legislature and to the U.S. Congress.
  24. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Gringo @171+ It's interesting that the H.I. President Jo Bast has time go on a fund-raising drive yet he is still complaining about folk quoting the leaked/faked documents that he has not yet had time to authenticate. So why is it taking him so long to check a few tens of pages? Perhaps he's realised there are a few comments that would be a bit too damaging to admit to. I liked Bast's appeal when he wrote "This attack would not have happened if we weren't unveiling the truth." Indeed, it seems some truth has been unveiled. Unfortunately for President Bast, it isn't the truth he intentionally wanted unveiled. So sad.
  25. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Personally I believe that HI President Joe Bast fundraising memo will do his organization more bad than good given its wording and his admittance that many if not all of the originals were written by him. That makes it very likely that they all came from one source; his assistant's computer (at least one document, the one with the names, addresses and phonenumbers of HI Board Members) states the full pathname at its bottom; the name which appears there is mentioned in the Budget file as his Assistant). I still have to see concrete evidence (other than HI's claim) that the Strategy Memo is fake. Mr Joe Bast, being the only executive at HI to receive a compensation ($145,135 in 2010), has a direct interest in downplaying this blunder from very likely his assistant if not himself.
  26. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    It's worth a reminder that a Heartland Director once wrote about a UEA email: "[it's] ...so good, so juicy". The quote can be found on Heartland's own website: just google the words -- Heartland "so good so juicy" Talk about chickens coming home to roost!
  27. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    From the horse's mouth - thanks to motherjones, hat tip to gringo #171 Joseph L. Bast says: "I am very sorry that the identities of some of our donors were revealed by this theft." Plain English that couldn't be any plainer confirming the authenticity of the documents which name donors: "the identities of some of our donors were revealed". Joseph L. Bast says: "Right now we are trying to get the individuals and organizations that have tried to make hay with these stolen and fraudulent documents to retract their statements, by threatening legal action if necessary." Good luck with that. How are you going to require blogs and media across the planet to unpublish the truth? I hope that Heartland has a team of linguists on hand to translate the legalese. Just a sample of non-English stories: http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2012/02/16/natura/1329397465.html?cid=GNEW970103 http://www.ceskapozice.cz/zahranici/svetove-udalosti/unik-dokumentu-i-popiraci-globalniho-oteplovani-uz-maji-svou-aferu http://www.klimaretter.info/forschung/hintergrund/10591-microsoft-bayer-und-der-zweifel-am-klimawandel
  28. Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
    Basically, they are parlaying a local event to global. Since the Earth has been much warmer in the past, that phenomenon doesn't have global implications.
  29. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    @Gringo I particularly like the quote near the bottom of that long and rambling email appealing for funds... "Dave Padden, Heartland's founder and long-time chairman, used to say that a lie can run around the world while the truth is still tying its shoestrings. Of course he was right. We're witnessing that right now." I think Dave Padden was thinking about the Heartland's modus operandi when he said that!
  30. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Re Gringo @ 171: What I found interesting about the fundraising email is its repetitive references to the "left" etc. when talking about climate change. Not a word about the actual science. That says a lot about the interests of Heartland and its donors.
  31. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Mother Jones has obtained a Heartland Institute fundraising email written by its president Joseph L Bast in which it uses the leak incident to seek donations for its legal fund. Some interesting snippets: "Most of the leaked documents appear to have been written by me for a board meeting that took place on January 17. I have not yet had a chance to compare the ones that are posted online with the originals I wrote, so I don't know if they are authentic or have been altered. " & "We have reported the identity theft and computer fraud to the police and to the FBI. We are asking the bloggers and reporters to immediately remove these documents and all statements about them from the blogs, Web sites, and publications, and to publish retractions." & " I am very sorry that the identities of some of our donors were revealed by this theft. I apologize to them, from the bottom of my heart. We are calling everyone who was named in these documents to give them the bad news and offer whatever assistance we can to repair the damage. We promise anonymity to many of our donors because nobody wants the risk of nutty environmentalists or Occupy Wall Street goons harassing them. We know that privacy is important to you. "
  32. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I would have expected companies like Exxon to be on their donor list. What do they do to influence public opinion? The Heartland Institute must be incredibly effective with their limited budget, unless there is a lot more money from other sources sloshing around somewhere. The think it is their intention to interfere in the high school curriculum that has angered me the most. I sincerely hope that David's Wojick's climate doubt modules will not make it to the classrooms. Has anybody described as "one of the more neutral voices with big audiences", i.e. Revkin or Curry commented upon being so popular with HI?
  33. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    My point @170 was that HI deserve no support if you base your involvement in a discussion on science. Heartland have made hypocritical statements about how unfair things are, yet have involved themselves in attacking climate scientists without seemingly engaging any discussion with those scientists.
  34. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Camburn, no this will not 'eventually amount to nothing'... because it has already demonstrated that Heartland is a direct link between the businesses paying for climate change denial and the scientists, journalists, bloggers, et cetera spreading this denial. Some of Heartland's donors have also stated that they are 're-evaluating' their relationship. Thus, the document release has already amounted to something. Whether it will amount to more remains to be seen, but "nothing" is off the table.
  35. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Regarding the 'Strategy' document and the fact that it was scanned: Whatever it's provenance, the strategy document states that it's for very limited distribution. It was also scanned considerably later than the other documents were created. I don't think this speaks to the authenticity in any way whatsoever - a limited distribution document like that isn't going to be floating around as a computer file on every staffer's computer. But if a board member, or someone representing themselves as such, were to request a set of docs, it would be very easy for a staffer with appropriate access (such as Bast's assistant) to pull a file hardcopy, scan it, and send the scan PDF along. I think email logs showing the message that was sent would clear up uncertainty - both in regards to this scanned document and to their statements that some of the documents may have been altered. Personal opinion - the budget docs confirm the amounts going to various persons and projects. The strategy doc is quite damning due to its tone, but I believe there's sufficient information in the rest to call HI's non-profit status into serious questions.
  36. Video of Chuck Kutscher debunking climate skeptic arguments
    Excellent presentation, but how come it has only had 341 views in the 6 weeks since it was uploaded? The 'choir' are definitely not doing enough, so get out there and spread this link:     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDpGdC3HNas We have to cancel out the Denialist machine with their own tactics, be more active in fora and expose this organised and cynical obfuscation of the Truth.
  37. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    As per the directory path info printed on one of the released documents (not the memo), all documents may have come from HI's president Joseph Bast's assistant. If that is the case then it is very likely that he himself prepared the Strategy Memo and printed it outside of HI's offices and eventually handed it over to his assistant for filing (who then scanned it and saved it as "2012 Climate Strategy (3).pdf", the '(3)' possibly indicating the third version of the memo). It is not unthinkable given the nature of the memo that internal HI security rules were violated by its author by creating a physical document outside of HI offices. Joseph Bast, along with his wife Diana Bast are the only paid boardmembers of HI. If the Strategy Memo reveals the original author violated HI rules (not because of its contents but because of its initial format), then both have a direct (financial) interest in claiming the document is fake.
  38. Dikran Marsupial at 00:52 AM on 17 February 2012
    The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    Ken Lambert wrote "Lambert sounds somewhat schoolmasterish", which is amusingly ironic given that the first sentence of his previous post was "I did find the actual Trenberth quotation on SKS". ;o) Having said which, it would be better if this conversation were conducted in a more calm manner on both sides, which requires (i) Ken to be more ready to accept when he has been shown to be in error and (ii) the rest of us to not let ourselves be wound up by the failure of others to accept having been shown to be in error. I know this can be difficult, but at the end of the day, to those that read SkS but don't post, it is likely that calm, patient argument is likely to carry more weight than insults or failure to admit error.
  39. Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
    #4 mac: I suspect not. The heat flux to the net ocean seems to be of the order of tenths of a Watt to Watts per square metre. That's very small fly compared to atmospheric dynamics!
  40. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Surely the main issue is data protection and it seems Heartland Institute are deflecting interest away from this issue. They have failed to adequately protect their clients data as a result of their own poor management and internal systems. This is of course ironic, because as a bunch of red tape cutting enthusiasts, it seems ridiculous that they are now worried that red tape has been cut and information is freely available. They want less legislation but are now wanting to impose it. Which of course reveals the double standards most libertarians have, having no rules is fine until they feel some rules will help their cause.
  41. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    When it is all said and done, mainly because part of the "Leak" does seem to be fabricated, this will amount to nothing. A ship under full sail with strong winds, all of a sudden hitting no winds and dead in the water.
  42. The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    So Trenberth says that Asian aerosols cannot explain the decreased rate of atmospheric warming. This differs from your previous representations that he was saying they do not exist or that they are insignificant. He says neither. Only that he does not believe they explain the change. Which still falls back to my prior statement that the uncertainty around these minor factors is still too large to separate them out... which is precisely the point Sphaerica was making (in reference to natural variability) that you 'disagreed' with in the first place... which was itself only tangentially on topic as these 'deductive analyses' of temperature anomaly components were one of the reasons it was obvious McLean's prediction was insane from day one... which is the actual topic here.
  43. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Sadly, having compared the documents, I strongly suspect that the 'January 2012 Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy' is NOT genuine, it is an 'outlier' as anyone who examines the documents will be able to determine for themselves. It is a great shame, because had it been genuine, it might have been very useful.
  44. The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    Sphaerica #38 I can't imagine what the 'black helicopters' remark means, however I am mindful of the comments policy. I don't mind being called by my first name either - or an abbreviation like KL is quite OK. Lambert sounds somewhat schoolmasterish.
  45. The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    CBD #40 I did find the actual Trenberth quotation on SKS: Quote: "There is discussion in the comments of the supposed finding that increasing aerosol (pollution) from China may be the explanation for the stasis in surface temperatures and I do not believe this for a moment. Similarly, Jim Hansen has discussed the role of aerosol as a source of discrepancy. However, the radiation measurements at the top of the atmosphere from satellites (CERES) include all of the aerosol effects, and so they are not extra. They may well be an important ingredient regionally, and I have no doubt they are, but globally they are not the explanation." endquote One might disagree with Dr Trenberth's analysis however he plainly says that: "increasing aerosol (pollution) from China may be the explanation for the stasis in surface temperatures and I do not believe this for a moment". And futher: "They (Chinese aerosols) may well be an important ingredient regionally, and I have no doubt they are, but globally they are not the explanation." We are talking about global warming and global temperatures here - not regional variations. So though my language was imperfect - my meaning did not misrepresent Dr Trenberth's position on the global effects of Asian (Chinese) aerosols.
  46. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Ah, sorry I didn't provide a link to the comical WUWT moderator comment about SkS. I don't feel quite right pasting any WUWT link given their propensity to bash peer reviewed papers and scientists without participating in the peer review process themselves.
  47. Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
    The histogram (Figure 1) appears to show a moderate ramp up from low temperatures with an abrupt fall at about 30C. That shape is artificial, because the histogram mixes all latitudes. If the histogram is limited to a narrow range of latitudes, it will be more nearly symmetric and won't give the impression of an upper limit to sea-surface temperature. It will still be somewhat asymmetric, because the eastern Pacific is relatively cold.
  48. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    For the 'document sleuthers', note that the 2/14 date on the contested strategy memo is time zone dependent. If the document actually originated from Heartland's offices in Chicago it would have been created at 11:47 am local time on Monday 2/13. It might also be possible to get some idea of the location of the sender from the header information of the e-mail DeSmog received... depending on what kind of e-mail account it was.
  49. Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
    yes - this man Vahrenholdt is manager of one of the big energy companies here in Germany. This is typical and as I often quoted here at SKS, the EIKE institute of denialists (CFACT behind EIKE) stands behind everything there ... you know EIKE is fostering Svensmark (and Kirbky) in a very rare way - actually a good scientist with brilliant ideas, but, as you say the results of the CERN project CLOUD are too thin as that they were final. And even though: CO2 is warming the atmosphere (and other GHGs) and this CLOUD-effect - as we might call it - is perhaps a shortterm mitigation effect ... when it is over, CO2 and the other GHGs strike back ... This does not go into the heads of some influential people ... Moreover there is another interview with Prof. Eicke Weber Head of the Fraunhofer Institute in Freiburg/Germany in one of the online issues of WELT or SPIEGEL (I just do not know which one) who is being opposing the Vahrenholdt book ... etc. etc.
  50. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    What is the reference for figure 2? The figure caption mentions GCRP, 2009 p. 20. What is the acronym short for?

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