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mdenison at 03:17 AM on 6 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
#7 renewable guy The Solar Flux given the value above the atmosphere. However some of that is reflected by the Earth due to the albedo effect and the remainder (about 7/10ths) is spread over the surface of the Earth so we must divide by 4 to obtain an average flux for the whole planet. So multiply 1.5 x 0.7 x 0.25 and you are close to the 0.25 W/m2 variablity in the forcing quoted. There is some discussion of this in other SkS articles. e.g. How we know the sun isn't causing global warming. Other sites like Real Climate discuss this too. -
Tom Curtis at 03:01 AM on 6 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
apiratelooksat50 @9, your word splitting is entirely specious. Implication is a relationship such that: A implies B allows us to infer from A that B. In this case, A is the tenfold increase in extreme warm events; B is the attribution of the 2010 Moscow heatwave, and the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma heatwave to global warming. In this case, you are maintaining that the authors assert A, and further assert A implies B, but insist that they do not conclude that B. The only way they can have not concluded that B is if, for some unknown reason, they have decided to contradict themselves. That not being the normal custom of NASA scientists, your interpretation is a clear misinterpretation of their claims. -
tmac57 at 02:56 AM on 6 February 2012Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
Bernard J- I read the Angliss Rutan thread,and it supports your statement that denialists rarely discuss things in good faith.Very disheartening. I would imagine an online debate with Monckton would similarly deteriorate into (at least on his side) a rhetorical smoke and mirrors presentation,rather than an exchange of science and fact. -
apiratelooksat50 at 02:40 AM on 6 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
Rob Painting, You did a nice job of presenting the information from the GISS site. Pursuant to our last dialogue I would like to once again point out the importance of using proper terminology. From the NASA website (emphasis mine): "Increased occurrence of such extreme anomalies as a result of global warming, by more than a factor of 10, implies that we can attribute such recent extreme anomalies, including that in Texas and Oklahoma, to global warming." From your summary: "A more than tenfold increase in extreme warm events, has the authors state that we can attribute the monster 2010 Moscow summer heatwave, and the 2011 Oklahoma/Texas heatwave, to global warming." The sentence is subtly different with the omission of the word "implied". However, the information being conveyed in the sentence is changed to a much greater degree. I don't know if this was intentional or unintentional on your part during your rewording of the report. Or, it could simply represent your own bias based on your interpretation due to a lack of understanding of scientific vocabulary. Regardless, for the sake of accuracy, this needs to be pointed out. When used in scientific (logic) writing the word implies means “to be of sufficient circumstance”. Or, that causation is not certain. In casual use the word implies loosely means “suggests”. Your omission of the word “implies” changes their statement from suggesting there is a causal relationship between the anomalies and global warming to a statement of fact. That was not the author’s intent. -
renewable guy at 01:04 AM on 6 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
I'm really glad you have written this part two for Hansen's paper. Admittedly I didn't completely understand the statistics part very well. What was the number between the -1 and +1 sigma. I didn't know what to do with it. This article cleared up that part of the question for me. I have worked at understanding this so I can present it in conversattion to other people at the different sites. So far I have gotten very little reaction, because most people don't know what to do with it. I find it a very powerful presentation of the total picture of temperature on the land masses of earth. The -2 and -3 sigma events are shrinking and the +2 and +3 sigma events are expanding. The only way out for them is they don't like Hansen and its a fraud or scam. Thanks for your work in presenting this. I look forward to reading more of your work:) -
Ken Lambert at 00:58 AM on 6 February 2012Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
Ian #100 A very sound point Ian. Other non-expert professionals in the areas of science, engineering etc and any lay persons able to understand the first law of thermodynamics can grasp the essentials of the general AGW case. -
renewable guy at 00:50 AM on 6 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
In figure one, I was noticing on the right side .25W/M*2, following the blue hashed lines across it appears to have about a 1.5 W/M*2 peak to peak difference. For my basic understanding, it would clear things up for me why it appears to be two different values. -
Bernard J. at 00:48 AM on 6 February 2012Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
I have often dreamed about a debate forum where each argument and counter argument were dealt with one at a time with each side given all the time needed to support their position,and have objective judges vet the responses.I am not even sure that this is possible...
Oh, it's possible - many bloggers have tried to engage denialists in specific threads to exactly this end. Brian Angliss did this just over a week ago with Burt Rutan. Angliss' approach was to put up two threads, one open and one dedicated just to his comments and Rutan's, and this would have allowed both an extented analysis and a noise-free corner. Rutan promptly ducked and weaved and high-tailed it away. And here on Skeptical Science there was a whole series of exchanges with Roger Pielke Snr intended to nut out the facts. The trouble is, denialists rarely seem to discuss things in good faith. Frankly, I would like to see how they respond in a setting more like a thesis defence, where they do not have the opportunity to prevaricate or otherwise distract from the hard facts. I think that Monckton in particular would snap under that sort of pressure - his whole glib schtick is predicated on his audience and questioners not knowing that his responses to genuinely-scientific opponents are completely bogus. -
Delmar at 00:16 AM on 6 February 2012Renewables can't provide baseload power
The projected energy consumption, the dotted line, appears too low. The population from 2000 to 2050 is to grow from 6 bil to about 10 bil. However the middle classing of India and china will be a large energy demand increase. There is not enough focus on hydro. Hydro can produce large amounts of electricity on any day you choose, but not every day as the water will run out. As a backup for wind or solar PV, when it has been cloudy for days and the storages are depleted, or there has been unusually light winds over large areas, the hydro can reliably fill the gap. It is the only large scale energy storage system that is currently commercialized, and has been for decades. -
MarkR at 23:59 PM on 5 February 2012Measurements show Earth heating up, think tanks & newspapers disagree
#55 Minkie41: which predictive models are you referring to? Most climate models include ice sheet changes. But since CMIP3 (the model runs for the last UN IPCC report) only tended to go to 2100 iirc, they could miss longer term warming. Also, the models are underestimating dynamic ice sheet losses. CMIP5 models (the current runs) often include a carbon cycle I believe, although they don't include some dynamic effects so experts think they underestimate the carbon release (Schuur & Abbott, 2011). Will be interesting to see what comes up; hopefully I'll hear some more about CMIP5 next week. -
Bernard J. at 21:18 PM on 5 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
On the subject of statisitcal distributions, Roy Spencer is writing about anomalies going "negative", as if this is impossible in a consensus physics world. Why does he not comment when the anomaly goes positive, and why does he not comment on the frequency over time of positive versus negative anomalies? And once again he trots out his 3rd order polynomial fit with his traditional disavowment:The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
which begs the question of why he includes it in the first place. After all, the mathematical function has no relevance to the data, and so has nothing to say about future points: in fact, anyone who knows how the curve's trajectory evolves will know that it rapidly departs from physical possibility in an accelerating and permanent way. Excel (gag) will courteously demonstrate this for anyone who is even mildly curious... The only use of the third-order polynomial fit is to serve as a denialist dog-whistle for the mathematically ignorant and/or gullible, who are taken by the negative slope on the right hand side of the curve. Anyone who has explored the data will know that this is the only form of curve from quite a variety of its that obliges in this way - and to reiterate Spencer's own confession, the mathematics is completely irrelevant to the data. And just quietly, the same third-order fit was included on the WWWT banner a month or two ago. It seems that deception is so great a tool for the Denialati that they are happy to advertise the fact even before they open their mouths. -
Bernard J. at 20:41 PM on 5 February 2012Hiding the Incline in Sea Level
David Archibald has joined the party to hide the sea level incline. I lost count of the errors in the post, but I know that would have filled a denialist-tactic bingo card in about 60 seconds... -
Rob Painting at 20:07 PM on 5 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
Alex C @1 - see SkS post: Extreme Events Increase With Global Warming. Rahmstorf & Coumou (2011) cite a number of earlier papers on this topic too. The distribution is Gaussian. -
Rob Painting at 20:01 PM on 5 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
Owl905 - "The only place the bulk of the deep-absorbed heat will return to manifest itself soon, and not violate the 2nd law of TD, is in the Arctics" The NASA scientists aren't talking about the deep ocean, rather the heat that has gone in the upper ocean over this period. See this image from Roemmich & Gilson (2011). Figure 3 in part 1:
As outlined in part 1, during La Nina periods the upwelling of deeper cooler water along the Pacific coast of North & South America, the burial of heat into deeper layers in the western tropical Pacific, combined with the reduced evaporation and lower cloud cover over the oceans, causes more sunlight to be beamed into the oceans. We have been in a La Nina-dominant period in the last 3-4 years, therefore the upper ocean will have accumulated much more heat. That heat will find it's way into the atmosphere during El Nino. That's just the way we have observed the Earth to operate.
"According to recent papers, the heat-flow........"
This is just more confusion on your part. Note the above. Two separate processes are being discussed here. This 'train that has already left the station' has nothing to do with deep ocean warming.
A foundation of AGW atmospheric heat-increase projection is that the heat does not quickly transfer into the ocean 'sponge'
Really? Many of the climate models appear to mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean when compared to observations - according to Hansen (2011). Some much more than others. Can you point me to these other papers you allude to? It's relevant to another article I'm writing.
"Another piece of contention in the NASA report is on the conclusion about solar influence. They just handed the pro-pollutionists a rock"
This is just a repeat of your comments in the thread of part 1. The sun has a cycle which alters the amount of energy the Earth receives. That is simply a fact. It is also a fact the the fluctuations in this cycle are substantial when compared to Earth's energy imbalance - therefore they can exert a noticeable influence on Earth's climate.
This is a completely separate issue to the decline in solar output over the last 30 odd years.
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owl905 at 18:11 PM on 5 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
"The circled area is (roughly) the solar energy already absorbed by the ocean and yet to manifest itself in global temperatures i.e - warming already committed." The only place the bulk of the deep-absorbed heat will return to manifest itself soon, and not violate the 2nd law of TD, is in the Arctics. Observations suggest it releases in the autumn. According to recent papers, the heat-flow is going the other way (missing heat into the deep). If the transfer of heat into the deep layers (below 750 metres) is quick and efficient, then one of the great uncertainties of 'how long' turns out to be decades or centuries. A foundation of AGW atmospheric heat-increase projection is that the heat does not quickly transfer into the ocean 'sponge'. Another piece of contention in the NASA report is on the conclusion about solar influence. They just handed the pro-pollutionists a rock. -
John Brookes at 17:22 PM on 5 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
Nice. Hansen et al have the knack of finding great ways of looking at the data. The "skeptics", for their part, are not sure what to make of two cold winters. They can't talk them up too much, for fear of falling foul of their own "its only weather" catchcry, but they don't want to let them pass unremarked. -
Delmar at 16:19 PM on 5 February 2012Cool climate papers 2011
Takver, the obvious next question is; if in VanCuren that white roofs add warming of 0.07k to gross global temperatures, would black roofs provide gross global cooling? It does sounds counter intuitive. Or is there a shade of grey that provides the maximum cooling? -
Alex C at 15:03 PM on 5 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
Hm, I thought it wasn't appropriate to assume that global temperature anomalies were distributed in a Gaussian fashion? Or, am I thinking of their residual distribution about a linear regression model? -
takver at 15:02 PM on 5 February 2012Cool climate papers 2011
I think I need some help with this one: "Week 40: VanCuren studied how albedo modification by building cool roofs would affect climate." I understand that this reduces the radiative forcing, and cools the local environment. Has this study modelled possible effects on the global level? I raise this because Mark Z. Jacobson and John E. Ten Hoeve released a study online (Free PDF) in October 2011 (see my blog article), but peer-reviewed published in AMS Journal Feb 2012 - Effects of Urban Surfaces and White Roofs on Global and Regional Climate (abstract) - that argues that their model results "show that conversion to white roofs cooled population weighted ground and air temperatures over the simulation. However, feedbacks of the local changes to the large scale resulted in a gross global warming, but smaller in magnitude than the UHI. Whereas, the population-weighted air temperature decrease due to white roofs was ~0.02 K, the global temperature increase was ~0.07 K." Perhaps they are both correct, just looking at the subject from different levels? Can someone with more physics background advise? -
Bob Lacatena at 13:41 PM on 5 February 2012The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
Rutan's diatribe is downright embarrassing. It stands as a living testament to how even a successful, driven and intelligent man can be so violently ravaged by the onset of Dunning-Kruger disease in its advanced stages. -
michael sweet at 13:00 PM on 5 February 2012Renewables can't provide baseload power
This article from Bloomburg says solar power is now cheaper than diesel in India. Many companies have diesel generators because the power grid cannot keep up with peak demand and they have rolling blackouts. Solar is being installed primarily because it is cheaper. It also generates during the day when blackouts are more common. Solar only became cheaper than diesel last year. Coal is still considerably cheaper than solar but solar is easy for small users to install. Companies install solar on the roofs of buildings. -
tmac57 at 12:26 PM on 5 February 2012The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
citizenschallenge- Thanks for the link.That was very disappointing to say the least.I was unaware that Rutan held those views.If he could have supported them in a factual way he might have come off better,but in the end he appeared to be simply parroting the denier party line. -
takver at 12:13 PM on 5 February 2012Cool climate papers 2011
Thanks Ari, I appreciate the effort that has gone into this list. A great deal of interesting papers here. While scrolling through I noted a few that are relevant to blog articles I have written in the past. Sometimes it's the offbeat 'cool' research that can attract the most public attention. The most visited article on my climate blog is: Whales and Climate Change: the role of Whale poo in absorption of CO2. Hardly 'core' climate research but it taps in to environmental concern over commercial whaling and climate change. -
citizenschallenge at 09:27 AM on 5 February 2012The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
For another excellent response to the WSJ letter. . . Brian Angliss does a superb job of trying to discuss science with Burt Rutan, Engineer to Engineer like, and Burt Rutan exposes himself as a ideologically driven demagogue he seems to have become - refusing to acknowledge anything other than his own shallow talking points. Brian's even tempered issue focused approach is a thing of beauty. Climate science discussion between Burt Rutan and Brian Angliss Posted on January 31, 2012 http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2012/01/31/climate-science-discussion-between-burt-rutan-and-brian-angliss/Moderator Response: Link fixed -
Minkie41 at 07:42 AM on 5 February 2012Measurements show Earth heating up, think tanks & newspapers disagree
My post no 52 wasn't gin-clear on the sensitive topic of climate sensitivity.I should have added that these predictive models: "...omit 'slow' feedbacks,such as ice sheet growth and decay,change in vegetation cover,permafrost melting and methane release,and carbon-cycle feedbacks,all which amplify climate changes on time scales of decades to centuries". The quote is from Spratt & Sutton's Climate Code Red,p47. -
ktonine at 06:48 AM on 5 February 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
"A good summation of the physics of radiative forcing can be found in V. Ramanathan's Trace-Gas Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming." Is a broken link.Moderator Response:[DB] Fixed link, thanks. The actual URL is: http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/files/pr72.pdf
A portion of V Ramanathan's publication list can be found here.
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funglestrumpet at 06:45 AM on 5 February 2012Cool climate papers 2011
Thanks for all the effort, but don't you think that, given the subject matter, overuse of the word 'cool' is best avoided? -
John Russell at 05:49 AM on 5 February 2012Still Going Down the Up Escalator
Too many people completely miss the point about the escalator graph. It doesn't actually matter what the graph represents; it's just highlighting the point that when there's a lot of spurious noise, it's possible to zoom into a graph and find periods when one can be deceived about the actual pitch of the slope. It's only when we zoom out to look at a longer time period that the overall pitch becomes apparent. It's a bit like climbing up a rocky mountain in a fog. Have we reached the top, or is it just a false crest? It's only when we start to climb down for a while that we can say for certain that we reached the peak a while back. Even then, until we're back at the same altitude as the starting point can we say our climb is over. -
NewYorkJ at 05:11 AM on 5 February 2012Cool climate papers 2011
I typically visit agwobserver about once per week. It's an excellent site for keeping up with the latest climate change studies, and as a reference when looking up research on a particular topic. -
tmac57 at 04:48 AM on 5 February 2012Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
I completely agree with Composer99 about the problems of doing a live debate.It is always frustrating to me to watch any debate where multiple lines of argument are left unanswered because the format does not allow for comprehensive follow up and nuanced explanations. I have often dreamed about a debate forum where each argument and counter argument were dealt with one at a time with each side given all the time needed to support their position,and have objective judges vet the responses.I am not even sure that this is possible,but the idea intrigues me. -
dana1981 at 04:32 AM on 5 February 2012Still Going Down the Up Escalator
curious george - not sure what you mean, it came from my computer. The details are in the caption. -
John Russell at 03:41 AM on 5 February 2012Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
The issue that I think no one has raised yet is the utter dependence of agriculture on the availability of cheap oil. A farmer I know spends more than $28,000 dollars every three months to farm 800 hectares of arable. And remember there's no tax on agricultural (red) diesel. The cost of oil impacts on every aspect of his work: for ploughing, planting, spraying, fertilising, irrigation, harvesting, and often drying his crops -- and that's before they've been transported away for processing. There are many people who believe that the unrest in the Middle East since the beginning of last year was/is largely a response to rising food prices. This was certainly the cause of food riots in the Far east in 2007. Imagine living in a country where the average person needs to spend 50% of their income on food, and then imagine what happens when world oil prices rise. The saying 'we're nine meals from anarchy' has an awful ring of truth to it. And then they tell us there will be 9bn people on the planet by 2050... I know I've not provided links but I encourage folks to do a bit of their own research on this topic. Here are a few phrases to google that will start you off uncovering the evidence... food riots far east 2007 food prices arab spring oil costs in farming nine meals from anarchy -
More Carbon Dioxide is not necessarily good for plants.
JMykos - I agree, a single plant species is not an indication of wholesale issues with agriculture. I would, however, suggest you take that discussion over to the CO2 is plant food thread where it is directly discussed, and in the meantime look at such items as Ari's Cool papers 2011 - week 31, where there's a link to a paper showing that regardless of wheat grain mass changes with CO2, the wheat protein content will decrease with CO2 rise. There is a considerable literature on the subject - and I personally don't find it encouraging. -
MangoChutney at 03:23 AM on 5 February 2012Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
@JMurphy #25 Like I said, I'm wasn't aware. It does seem, however, that Monckton would be more than happy to engage in a written debate now, since he has responded to John Cook's comments over at WUWT -
DSL at 02:59 AM on 5 February 2012Still Going Down the Up Escalator
Martin, Montford is not worth reading. Tamino and RC have already sounded the depth of Montford's skill, and they found it quite shallow. Motivation to read a book with a title like that probably comes from already being a member of the choir. -
curious george at 02:55 AM on 5 February 2012Still Going Down the Up Escalator
Dana - where exactly does this graph come from? -
JMurphy at 02:50 AM on 5 February 2012Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
MangoChutney, Barry Bickmore issued a challenge last year that wasn't taken up : The Debate Monckton Won’t Have. I wonder why ?Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed URL. -
Martin Lack at 02:46 AM on 5 February 2012Still Going Down the Up Escalator
Please forgive me for going slightly off topic (is claiming AGW is itself a conspiracy off-topic?), but Rev Philip Foster (retired) has just kindly alerted me to, amongst other things, (Chartered Accountant) Andrew Monford‘s new paper "Conspiracy is green/The Propaganda Machine" downloadable as a PDF here. As I said to Rev Foster, I am not qualified to rip this apart but, I am sure I know people who are! Over to you...Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed URL. -
DSL at 02:38 AM on 5 February 2012Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
But muon, SkS doesn't have a thread for "Nature (capital N) assesses soil moisture and causes ocean evaporation to compensate for decreased convection, leading to (not proceeding from) increased latent heating." And I doubt if SkS ever will. -
MangoChutney at 02:19 AM on 5 February 2012Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
@Composer #23 I'm not aware of Monckton ever refusing a debate, but, as I don't follow him or his blog often, I will happily be corrected. I feel sure that Monckton would agree to a written, evidence based debate - perhaps John Cook could do the invites and they could joint host? -
Enginerd at 02:14 AM on 5 February 2012Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
Thanks for posting this letter, and I appreciate the dedicated scientists taking the time to write it. The dialog in the comments is interesting as always. I think I'll inform my dentist that he should expect to receive an inquiry or two about heart conditions!!! Keep up the good work... -
Tsumetai at 02:10 AM on 5 February 2012Still Going Down the Up Escalator
Ultimately Briggs completely misses the point of The Escalator. "...just as the WSJ‘s scientists claim, we can’t say with any certainty that the temperatures have been increasing this past decade."
This is a fairly obvious bait-and-switch, too. WSJ didn't say "maybe no warming", they said "hey, no warming, guess the models are wrong!". This is inconsistent with Briggs' own position. -
Composer99 at 02:02 AM on 5 February 2012Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
MangoChutney: Being somewhat guilty of less-than-entirely-civil comments here on SkS and elsewhere myself earlier this week, I am definitely in favour of raising the tone and will hopefully follow through in my own behaviour. However, I must strongly disagree with the notion of a live debate with Christopher Monckton. Monckton's debate & presentation style leans heavy on rhetoric and less on solid evidentiary grounds(as Peter Hadfield alias potholer54 shows ably on YouTube). IMO he tends to spout off so many incorrect claims that effectively countering them all in verbal debate is usually not possible given the time constraints involved. He also has both a superficial knowledge of a great deal of topics and an overweening confidence that comes across during presentations, which can leave others with deeper knowledge in some topics but less in others appearing to be his intellectual inferiors (Hadfield shows a video clip where Monckton gets one over an actual scientist with a few soundbites and his over-the-top assertiveness alone, and is not called to account for his poor evidentiary support due to the limits of the medium). As such, I would suggest any debate involving Monckton be strictly on a written basis, with sources clearly linked to and clear premise-conclusion chains of inference made to show how all participating parties' conclusions follow from the evidence they have brought to the table. If I recall correctly, Monkcton has refused to participate in such endeavours in the past. -
John Russell at 01:58 AM on 5 February 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #4
I should add that I really value when you cover a post on a fake sceptic site and take it apart to show exactly why it's in error. The quicker you can do this the better. I can often see reasons why it's wrong but -- many heads being better than one -- you sometimes see angles that are not immediately apparent and your links to the contradictory evidence are invaluable in helping those like me who seek to take on the misinformation. -
John Russell at 01:50 AM on 5 February 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #4
I've been reading about 4/5 years now since I found it during a google search. I look in 5/6 times a week. I find it the best place to find the numerous strands of evidence relating to any particular topic, together with links to all the peer-reviewed papers. Hard facts from credible sources, like NASA, NOAA etc., help to shut up those who seek to confuse. I rarely quote SkS directly now but instead always refer back to the source as far as I can. I'm happy that you continue to follow up on whatever you think is topical. I can't say you've ever failed to cover any issue adequately. My only comment: try not to be too aggressive with the fake skeptics. Remaining calm when provoked is the best way to win any argument. Remember that it's not the person you're putting right that matters, it's the undecided onlooker who can be influenced by the way you deal with dissent. John Cook was always very good at this -- some later contributors (no names no pack drill) have shorter fuses than John, and would be wise to learn from his approach. -
Ari Jokimäki at 01:43 AM on 5 February 2012Cool climate papers 2011
Diversity is indeed one thing I want to show with the "new research of last week" series (and this extract of it). It is also a deliberate effort to include mostly papers that wouldn't get much publicity otherwise. So I tend to note papers outside Nature/Science/PNAS. -
L. Hamilton at 01:34 AM on 5 February 2012Cool climate papers 2011
Thanks for putting in the effort, Ari. I just went through your list and read 15 or 20 of the abstracts, and have bookmarked the list to come back for more browsing. Many of these are papers I hadn't seen, in journals I wouldn't normally read. But you're right, they are cool and diverse. -
Eric (skeptic) at 01:32 AM on 5 February 2012It's a natural cycle
Thanks Composer99 for pointing to this thread. There are many natural cycles that get discussed on the fringes of science, everything from pure Fourier analysis results (temperature effects with no discussion of cause) to complex orbital or lunar mechanics (causes that generally lack a plausible magnitude of effect). I don't find those very convincing. Instead I would like to put forth a combination of solar, oceanic and AGW (with or without AGC). SkS analyzes each non-anthro cause in separate articles, such as PDO and It's (not) the sun Those arguments are a divide and conquer approach to GW, including some oversimplification such as using TSI as the primary solar factor. In contrast, I believe GW results from a combination of some natural cycles and AGW. Here is an example of oceanic cycles from http://www4.nau.edu/direnet/publications/publications_m/files/McCabe_etal_2004.pdf showing the NH temperature response to PDO and AMO:
Second, an example of a weather response to solar: http://www.leif.org/EOS/2010GL043091.pdf This is important because the weather controls some climate in general and sensitivity in particular. In this paper, the increase in solar UV is shown to decrease CAPE leading to weaker cyclones. The higher solar cycles of the 80's and 90's (including higher minimums) caused an overall increase in solar UV which caused lower CAPE, weakened tropical cyclones and thus less heat loss to space. The latter is an old and well-established fact (e.g. http://www.dca.ufcg.edu.br/mna/Anexo-MNA-modulo03i.pdf) that increased tropical convection, regardless of cause, will result in more latent heat transfer and cooling. I would then have to show that there was a worldwide decrease in convection, particularly tropical, coinciding with the greatest warming of the 80's and 90's. I do not yet have a good data source for that claim.
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muoncounter at 01:17 AM on 5 February 2012Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
Tarcisio: For this apparent mirror imaging to be considered a theory, it needs substantiation with reference to scientific literature. Until you have some body of research to support your idea, it is just that: an idea. It is also off-topic for this thread. -
Tarcisio José D at 01:08 AM on 5 February 2012Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
DSL@96/97 and Moderator: See my theory on this chart.
The mechanism used by nature to raise the parcel of heated air beyond the 500mb is the turbulent convection which depends on the availability of soil water. Missing soil water, nature seeks to balance the scheme by increasing evaporation from ocean heating it up. This concept is not covered by the "models" because it's occur below 2 meters high in the atmosphere. You can write in English that I understand better than Google.
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