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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 65051 to 65100:

  1. Measurements show Earth heating up, think tanks & newspapers disagree
    #55 Minkie41: which predictive models are you referring to? Most climate models include ice sheet changes. But since CMIP3 (the model runs for the last UN IPCC report) only tended to go to 2100 iirc, they could miss longer term warming. Also, the models are underestimating dynamic ice sheet losses. CMIP5 models (the current runs) often include a carbon cycle I believe, although they don't include some dynamic effects so experts think they underestimate the carbon release (Schuur & Abbott, 2011). Will be interesting to see what comes up; hopefully I'll hear some more about CMIP5 next week.
  2. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
    On the subject of statisitcal distributions, Roy Spencer is writing about anomalies going "negative", as if this is impossible in a consensus physics world. Why does he not comment when the anomaly goes positive, and why does he not comment on the frequency over time of positive versus negative anomalies? And once again he trots out his 3rd order polynomial fit with his traditional disavowment:
    The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
    which begs the question of why he includes it in the first place. After all, the mathematical function has no relevance to the data, and so has nothing to say about future points: in fact, anyone who knows how the curve's trajectory evolves will know that it rapidly departs from physical possibility in an accelerating and permanent way. Excel (gag) will courteously demonstrate this for anyone who is even mildly curious... The only use of the third-order polynomial fit is to serve as a denialist dog-whistle for the mathematically ignorant and/or gullible, who are taken by the negative slope on the right hand side of the curve. Anyone who has explored the data will know that this is the only form of curve from quite a variety of its that obliges in this way - and to reiterate Spencer's own confession, the mathematics is completely irrelevant to the data. And just quietly, the same third-order fit was included on the WWWT banner a month or two ago. It seems that deception is so great a tool for the Denialati that they are happy to advertise the fact even before they open their mouths.
  3. Hiding the Incline in Sea Level
    David Archibald has joined the party to hide the sea level incline. I lost count of the errors in the post, but I know that would have filled a denialist-tactic bingo card in about 60 seconds...
  4. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
    Alex C @1 - see SkS post: Extreme Events Increase With Global Warming. Rahmstorf & Coumou (2011) cite a number of earlier papers on this topic too. The distribution is Gaussian.
  5. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
    Owl905 - "The only place the bulk of the deep-absorbed heat will return to manifest itself soon, and not violate the 2nd law of TD, is in the Arctics" The NASA scientists aren't talking about the deep ocean, rather the heat that has gone in the upper ocean over this period. See this image from Roemmich & Gilson (2011). Figure 3 in part 1: As outlined in part 1, during La Nina periods the upwelling of deeper cooler water along the Pacific coast of North & South America, the burial of heat into deeper layers in the western tropical Pacific, combined with the reduced evaporation and lower cloud cover over the oceans, causes more sunlight to be beamed into the oceans. We have been in a La Nina-dominant period in the last 3-4 years, therefore the upper ocean will have accumulated much more heat. That heat will find it's way into the atmosphere during El Nino. That's just the way we have observed the Earth to operate. "According to recent papers, the heat-flow........" This is just more confusion on your part. Note the above. Two separate processes are being discussed here. This 'train that has already left the station' has nothing to do with deep ocean warming. A foundation of AGW atmospheric heat-increase projection is that the heat does not quickly transfer into the ocean 'sponge' Really? Many of the climate models appear to mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean when compared to observations - according to Hansen (2011). Some much more than others. Can you point me to these other papers you allude to? It's relevant to another article I'm writing. "Another piece of contention in the NASA report is on the conclusion about solar influence. They just handed the pro-pollutionists a rock" This is just a repeat of your comments in the thread of part 1. The sun has a cycle which alters the amount of energy the Earth receives. That is simply a fact. It is also a fact the the fluctuations in this cycle are substantial when compared to Earth's energy imbalance - therefore they can exert a noticeable influence on Earth's climate. This is a completely separate issue to the decline in solar output over the last 30 odd years.
  6. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
    "The circled area is (roughly) the solar energy already absorbed by the ocean and yet to manifest itself in global temperatures i.e - warming already committed." The only place the bulk of the deep-absorbed heat will return to manifest itself soon, and not violate the 2nd law of TD, is in the Arctics. Observations suggest it releases in the autumn. According to recent papers, the heat-flow is going the other way (missing heat into the deep). If the transfer of heat into the deep layers (below 750 metres) is quick and efficient, then one of the great uncertainties of 'how long' turns out to be decades or centuries. A foundation of AGW atmospheric heat-increase projection is that the heat does not quickly transfer into the ocean 'sponge'. Another piece of contention in the NASA report is on the conclusion about solar influence. They just handed the pro-pollutionists a rock.
  7. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
    Nice. Hansen et al have the knack of finding great ways of looking at the data. The "skeptics", for their part, are not sure what to make of two cold winters. They can't talk them up too much, for fear of falling foul of their own "its only weather" catchcry, but they don't want to let them pass unremarked.
  8. Cool climate papers 2011
    Takver, the obvious next question is; if in VanCuren that white roofs add warming of 0.07k to gross global temperatures, would black roofs provide gross global cooling? It does sounds counter intuitive. Or is there a shade of grey that provides the maximum cooling?
  9. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
    Hm, I thought it wasn't appropriate to assume that global temperature anomalies were distributed in a Gaussian fashion? Or, am I thinking of their residual distribution about a linear regression model?
  10. Cool climate papers 2011
    I think I need some help with this one: "Week 40: VanCuren studied how albedo modification by building cool roofs would affect climate." I understand that this reduces the radiative forcing, and cools the local environment. Has this study modelled possible effects on the global level? I raise this because Mark Z. Jacobson and John E. Ten Hoeve released a study online (Free PDF) in October 2011 (see my blog article), but peer-reviewed published in AMS Journal Feb 2012 - Effects of Urban Surfaces and White Roofs on Global and Regional Climate (abstract) - that argues that their model results "show that conversion to white roofs cooled population weighted ground and air temperatures over the simulation. However, feedbacks of the local changes to the large scale resulted in a gross global warming, but smaller in magnitude than the UHI. Whereas, the population-weighted air temperature decrease due to white roofs was ~0.02 K, the global temperature increase was ~0.07 K." Perhaps they are both correct, just looking at the subject from different levels? Can someone with more physics background advise?
  11. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    Rutan's diatribe is downright embarrassing. It stands as a living testament to how even a successful, driven and intelligent man can be so violently ravaged by the onset of Dunning-Kruger disease in its advanced stages.
  12. Renewables can't provide baseload power
    This article from Bloomburg says solar power is now cheaper than diesel in India. Many companies have diesel generators because the power grid cannot keep up with peak demand and they have rolling blackouts. Solar is being installed primarily because it is cheaper. It also generates during the day when blackouts are more common. Solar only became cheaper than diesel last year. Coal is still considerably cheaper than solar but solar is easy for small users to install. Companies install solar on the roofs of buildings.
  13. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    citizenschallenge- Thanks for the link.That was very disappointing to say the least.I was unaware that Rutan held those views.If he could have supported them in a factual way he might have come off better,but in the end he appeared to be simply parroting the denier party line.
  14. Cool climate papers 2011
    Thanks Ari, I appreciate the effort that has gone into this list. A great deal of interesting papers here. While scrolling through I noted a few that are relevant to blog articles I have written in the past. Sometimes it's the offbeat 'cool' research that can attract the most public attention. The most visited article on my climate blog is: Whales and Climate Change: the role of Whale poo in absorption of CO2. Hardly 'core' climate research but it taps in to environmental concern over commercial whaling and climate change.
  15. citizenschallenge at 09:27 AM on 5 February 2012
    The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    For another excellent response to the WSJ letter. . . Brian Angliss does a superb job of trying to discuss science with Burt Rutan, Engineer to Engineer like, and Burt Rutan exposes himself as a ideologically driven demagogue he seems to have become - refusing to acknowledge anything other than his own shallow talking points. Brian's even tempered issue focused approach is a thing of beauty. Climate science discussion between Burt Rutan and Brian Angliss Posted on January 31, 2012 http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2012/01/31/climate-science-discussion-between-burt-rutan-and-brian-angliss/
    Moderator Response: Link fixed
  16. Measurements show Earth heating up, think tanks & newspapers disagree
    My post no 52 wasn't gin-clear on the sensitive topic of climate sensitivity.I should have added that these predictive models: "...omit 'slow' feedbacks,such as ice sheet growth and decay,change in vegetation cover,permafrost melting and methane release,and carbon-cycle feedbacks,all which amplify climate changes on time scales of decades to centuries". The quote is from Spratt & Sutton's Climate Code Red,p47.
  17. Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
    "A good summation of the physics of radiative forcing can be found in V. Ramanathan's Trace-Gas Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming." Is a broken link.
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Fixed link, thanks. The actual URL is: http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/files/pr72.pdf

    A portion of V Ramanathan's publication list can be found here.

  18. funglestrumpet at 06:45 AM on 5 February 2012
    Cool climate papers 2011
    Thanks for all the effort, but don't you think that, given the subject matter, overuse of the word 'cool' is best avoided?
  19. Still Going Down the Up Escalator
    Too many people completely miss the point about the escalator graph. It doesn't actually matter what the graph represents; it's just highlighting the point that when there's a lot of spurious noise, it's possible to zoom into a graph and find periods when one can be deceived about the actual pitch of the slope. It's only when we zoom out to look at a longer time period that the overall pitch becomes apparent. It's a bit like climbing up a rocky mountain in a fog. Have we reached the top, or is it just a false crest? It's only when we start to climb down for a while that we can say for certain that we reached the peak a while back. Even then, until we're back at the same altitude as the starting point can we say our climb is over.
  20. Cool climate papers 2011
    I typically visit agwobserver about once per week. It's an excellent site for keeping up with the latest climate change studies, and as a reference when looking up research on a particular topic.
  21. Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
    I completely agree with Composer99 about the problems of doing a live debate.It is always frustrating to me to watch any debate where multiple lines of argument are left unanswered because the format does not allow for comprehensive follow up and nuanced explanations. I have often dreamed about a debate forum where each argument and counter argument were dealt with one at a time with each side given all the time needed to support their position,and have objective judges vet the responses.I am not even sure that this is possible,but the idea intrigues me.
  22. Still Going Down the Up Escalator
    curious george - not sure what you mean, it came from my computer. The details are in the caption.
  23. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    The issue that I think no one has raised yet is the utter dependence of agriculture on the availability of cheap oil. A farmer I know spends more than $28,000 dollars every three months to farm 800 hectares of arable. And remember there's no tax on agricultural (red) diesel. The cost of oil impacts on every aspect of his work: for ploughing, planting, spraying, fertilising, irrigation, harvesting, and often drying his crops -- and that's before they've been transported away for processing. There are many people who believe that the unrest in the Middle East since the beginning of last year was/is largely a response to rising food prices. This was certainly the cause of food riots in the Far east in 2007. Imagine living in a country where the average person needs to spend 50% of their income on food, and then imagine what happens when world oil prices rise. The saying 'we're nine meals from anarchy' has an awful ring of truth to it. And then they tell us there will be 9bn people on the planet by 2050... I know I've not provided links but I encourage folks to do a bit of their own research on this topic. Here are a few phrases to google that will start you off uncovering the evidence... food riots far east 2007 food prices arab spring oil costs in farming nine meals from anarchy
  24. More Carbon Dioxide is not necessarily good for plants.
    JMykos - I agree, a single plant species is not an indication of wholesale issues with agriculture. I would, however, suggest you take that discussion over to the CO2 is plant food thread where it is directly discussed, and in the meantime look at such items as Ari's Cool papers 2011 - week 31, where there's a link to a paper showing that regardless of wheat grain mass changes with CO2, the wheat protein content will decrease with CO2 rise. There is a considerable literature on the subject - and I personally don't find it encouraging.
  25. Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
    @JMurphy #25 Like I said, I'm wasn't aware. It does seem, however, that Monckton would be more than happy to engage in a written debate now, since he has responded to John Cook's comments over at WUWT
  26. Still Going Down the Up Escalator
    Martin, Montford is not worth reading. Tamino and RC have already sounded the depth of Montford's skill, and they found it quite shallow. Motivation to read a book with a title like that probably comes from already being a member of the choir.
  27. curious george at 02:55 AM on 5 February 2012
    Still Going Down the Up Escalator
    Dana - where exactly does this graph come from?
  28. Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
    MangoChutney, Barry Bickmore issued a challenge last year that wasn't taken up : The Debate Monckton Won’t Have. I wonder why ?
    Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed URL.
  29. Still Going Down the Up Escalator
    Please forgive me for going slightly off topic (is claiming AGW is itself a conspiracy off-topic?), but Rev Philip Foster (retired) has just kindly alerted me to, amongst other things, (Chartered Accountant) Andrew Monford‘s new paper "Conspiracy is green/The Propaganda Machine" downloadable as a PDF here. As I said to Rev Foster, I am not qualified to rip this apart but, I am sure I know people who are! Over to you...
    Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed URL.
  30. Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
    But muon, SkS doesn't have a thread for "Nature (capital N) assesses soil moisture and causes ocean evaporation to compensate for decreased convection, leading to (not proceeding from) increased latent heating." And I doubt if SkS ever will.
  31. Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
    @Composer #23 I'm not aware of Monckton ever refusing a debate, but, as I don't follow him or his blog often, I will happily be corrected. I feel sure that Monckton would agree to a written, evidence based debate - perhaps John Cook could do the invites and they could joint host?
  32. Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
    Thanks for posting this letter, and I appreciate the dedicated scientists taking the time to write it. The dialog in the comments is interesting as always. I think I'll inform my dentist that he should expect to receive an inquiry or two about heart conditions!!! Keep up the good work...
  33. Still Going Down the Up Escalator
    Ultimately Briggs completely misses the point of The Escalator. "...just as the WSJ‘s scientists claim, we can’t say with any certainty that the temperatures have been increasing this past decade."
    This is a fairly obvious bait-and-switch, too. WSJ didn't say "maybe no warming", they said "hey, no warming, guess the models are wrong!". This is inconsistent with Briggs' own position.
  34. Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
    MangoChutney: Being somewhat guilty of less-than-entirely-civil comments here on SkS and elsewhere myself earlier this week, I am definitely in favour of raising the tone and will hopefully follow through in my own behaviour. However, I must strongly disagree with the notion of a live debate with Christopher Monckton. Monckton's debate & presentation style leans heavy on rhetoric and less on solid evidentiary grounds(as Peter Hadfield alias potholer54 shows ably on YouTube). IMO he tends to spout off so many incorrect claims that effectively countering them all in verbal debate is usually not possible given the time constraints involved. He also has both a superficial knowledge of a great deal of topics and an overweening confidence that comes across during presentations, which can leave others with deeper knowledge in some topics but less in others appearing to be his intellectual inferiors (Hadfield shows a video clip where Monckton gets one over an actual scientist with a few soundbites and his over-the-top assertiveness alone, and is not called to account for his poor evidentiary support due to the limits of the medium). As such, I would suggest any debate involving Monckton be strictly on a written basis, with sources clearly linked to and clear premise-conclusion chains of inference made to show how all participating parties' conclusions follow from the evidence they have brought to the table. If I recall correctly, Monkcton has refused to participate in such endeavours in the past.
  35. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #4
    I should add that I really value when you cover a post on a fake sceptic site and take it apart to show exactly why it's in error. The quicker you can do this the better. I can often see reasons why it's wrong but -- many heads being better than one -- you sometimes see angles that are not immediately apparent and your links to the contradictory evidence are invaluable in helping those like me who seek to take on the misinformation.
  36. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #4
    I've been reading about 4/5 years now since I found it during a google search. I look in 5/6 times a week. I find it the best place to find the numerous strands of evidence relating to any particular topic, together with links to all the peer-reviewed papers. Hard facts from credible sources, like NASA, NOAA etc., help to shut up those who seek to confuse. I rarely quote SkS directly now but instead always refer back to the source as far as I can. I'm happy that you continue to follow up on whatever you think is topical. I can't say you've ever failed to cover any issue adequately. My only comment: try not to be too aggressive with the fake skeptics. Remaining calm when provoked is the best way to win any argument. Remember that it's not the person you're putting right that matters, it's the undecided onlooker who can be influenced by the way you deal with dissent. John Cook was always very good at this -- some later contributors (no names no pack drill) have shorter fuses than John, and would be wise to learn from his approach.
  37. Cool climate papers 2011
    Diversity is indeed one thing I want to show with the "new research of last week" series (and this extract of it). It is also a deliberate effort to include mostly papers that wouldn't get much publicity otherwise. So I tend to note papers outside Nature/Science/PNAS.
  38. Cool climate papers 2011
    Thanks for putting in the effort, Ari. I just went through your list and read 15 or 20 of the abstracts, and have bookmarked the list to come back for more browsing. Many of these are papers I hadn't seen, in journals I wouldn't normally read. But you're right, they are cool and diverse.
  39. Eric (skeptic) at 01:32 AM on 5 February 2012
    It's a natural cycle
    Thanks Composer99 for pointing to this thread. There are many natural cycles that get discussed on the fringes of science, everything from pure Fourier analysis results (temperature effects with no discussion of cause) to complex orbital or lunar mechanics (causes that generally lack a plausible magnitude of effect). I don't find those very convincing. Instead I would like to put forth a combination of solar, oceanic and AGW (with or without AGC). SkS analyzes each non-anthro cause in separate articles, such as PDO and It's (not) the sun Those arguments are a divide and conquer approach to GW, including some oversimplification such as using TSI as the primary solar factor. In contrast, I believe GW results from a combination of some natural cycles and AGW. Here is an example of oceanic cycles from http://www4.nau.edu/direnet/publications/publications_m/files/McCabe_etal_2004.pdf showing the NH temperature response to PDO and AMO:
    Second, an example of a weather response to solar: http://www.leif.org/EOS/2010GL043091.pdf This is important because the weather controls some climate in general and sensitivity in particular. In this paper, the increase in solar UV is shown to decrease CAPE leading to weaker cyclones. The higher solar cycles of the 80's and 90's (including higher minimums) caused an overall increase in solar UV which caused lower CAPE, weakened tropical cyclones and thus less heat loss to space. The latter is an old and well-established fact (e.g. http://www.dca.ufcg.edu.br/mna/Anexo-MNA-modulo03i.pdf) that increased tropical convection, regardless of cause, will result in more latent heat transfer and cooling. I would then have to show that there was a worldwide decrease in convection, particularly tropical, coinciding with the greatest warming of the 80's and 90's. I do not yet have a good data source for that claim.
  40. Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
    Tarcisio: For this apparent mirror imaging to be considered a theory, it needs substantiation with reference to scientific literature. Until you have some body of research to support your idea, it is just that: an idea. It is also off-topic for this thread.
  41. Tarcisio José D at 01:08 AM on 5 February 2012
    Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
    DSL@96/97 and Moderator: See my theory on this chart.
    The mechanism used by nature to raise the parcel of heated air beyond the 500mb is the turbulent convection which depends on the availability of soil water. Missing soil water, nature seeks to balance the scheme by increasing evaporation from ocean heating it up. This concept is not covered by the "models" because it's occur below 2 meters high in the atmosphere. You can write in English that I understand better than Google.
  42. More Carbon Dioxide is not necessarily good for plants.
    True. I guess you are referring to Canada or Australia during the Carboniferous period.
  43. Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
    Ian, Al Gore etc. is publicising the work of climate scientists, not doing the work himself. The authority comes from the science that his views are based on. The "dentists" do not have climate science to support their misinformation.
  44. More Carbon Dioxide is not necessarily good for plants.
    Maybe - important coal seams here are from cool climate peats with quite low plant growth rates. However, the environmental stability allowed them to develop to significant thickness. On the other hand, no amount of CO2 will make many plants grow in the Sahara unless the resulting climate change also brings rain.
  45. Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
    @Elsa @ 14 As others have said, I don't think Phil Jones qualifications are in doubt and I'm not even sure, relevant. His publication record alone illustrates his background. You can question his methods, data and results, but you can't question his qualifications
  46. Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
    BTW - I've just checked the WUWT page and the offending reference has been removed.
  47. Monckton Myth #17: Debate vs. Denniss, Part 2
    @Doug H #19 I agree, John Cook should respond - perhaps the two of them could host a joint discussion to try and get AGW supporters and sceptics talking, ideally in a neutral blog, where no side can be accused of manipulating the comments? Perhaps even a live debate next time Monckton is down under. For what it's worth, I totally agree the name calling isn't necessary or desireable, from either side of the debate. I know I am sometimes guilty of this, but I do try to be civil. I do know WUWT is actively encouraging people to use "SkS" when referring to this website. It's a start.
  48. Cool climate papers 2011
    Thank you all. :) #2, Doug H, perhaps I should insert a start here sign there somewhere. #3, rpauli, I bet many of the behind the paywall ones have free copies somewhere in the Internet by now. Those can be found rather easily by inserting the name of the paper to Google. #4, tmac57, yep. Our diurnal scale climate here is very cool currently (-15 deg. C and snowing). #6, Old Mole, thank you for the info. Here in Finland it's sort of national hobby to get drunk every now and then, so perhaps I had that in mind. ;) But at any case, you offer very good example of something that might first appear as positive side of climate change but when consulting the details it necessarily isn't so positive after all.
  49. Still Going Down the Up Escalator
    @Composer99-91 The latest greatest unknown, that may be a natural variation or cyclical, is the methane releases from the floor of the Arctic shelf and the possibly-related co-incidental freshwater bubble centred in the Beaufort Gyre. The potential repercussions are very serious.
  50. Cool climate papers 2011
    "Week 14: Webb et al. noted that grapes in Australian vineyards are attaining maturity earlier than before, so this must be one of the positive sides of global warming." Errr ... not so much, unless getting drunk is your goal. Ripening earlier means that you have the higher sugars, but less time to develop the tannins and flavors you need for a balanced wine. Climate change also brings with it greater incidence and severity of extreme weather events (which wine grapes hate). Climate change may be of some slight benefit to winemakers, but only in areas that were cool to begin with, like the Mosel ... and would certainly not be good for areas like the newer Queensland plantings or even older and more established ones like the Hunter Valley. You might check this out for more info, should you be interested. www.sou.edu/envirostudies/.../Whitman%20College%20WP_07.pdf

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