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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 65501 to 65550:

  1. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    DaneelOlivaw, yeah... but the people doing it 40 years ago had reasonable basis for thinking so. Heck, if deniers were to take that 40 year old science and present it today as evidence of imminent cooling... despite being long since disproven it'd still be a better case than the one they are actually presenting.
  2. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    I also added the quote provided by grypo from Revkin's Nordhaus interview to the OP.
  3. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    grypo @14 - thanks, that confirms my comment in the post that Nordhaus
    "would likely not appreciate his name being invoked to justify foolish calls for climate inaction."
  4. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    It just occurred to me. The fake skeptics often claim that in the 70s scientists were predicting an ice age... but now THEY are the ones predicting global cooling.
  5. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    ****** As an important add-on to this post, Revkin has emailed Nordhaus to get his take on how the "scientists" (mis)represented his work. What the 'scientists' said:
    A recent study of a wide variety of policy options by Yale economist William Nordhaus showed that nearly the highest benefit-to-cost ratio is achieved for a policy that allows 50 more years of economic growth unimpeded by greenhouse gas controls. This would be especially beneficial to the less-developed parts of the world that would like to share some of the same advantages of material well-being, health and life expectancy that the fully developed parts of the world enjoy now. Many other policy responses would have a negative return on investment. And it is likely that more CO2 and the modest warming that may come with it will be an overall benefit to the planet.
    Nordhous' response:
    The piece completely misrepresented my work. My work has long taken the view that policies to slow global warming would have net economic benefits, in the trillion of dollars of present value. This is true going back to work in the early 1990s (MIT Press, Yale Press, Science, PNAS, among others). I have advocated a carbon tax for many years as the best way to attack the issue. I can only assume they either completely ignorant of the economics on the issue or are willfully misstating my findings.
  6. Ice isn't melting
    In your Lindzen Illusions that deals the Arctic Sea Ice with you quote Lindzen and give a source but when I click on the link to the Lindzen quote I receive the following message:
    Media Player You are not authorized to view this resource.
  7. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    Pete@10: As to be expected, the comment thread to Gleick's op-ed, "Remarkable Editorial Bias on Climate Science at the Wall Street Journal" posted on Forbes, Jan 27, 2012, has drawn climate denier drones like flies to honey. They consider Forbes to be their sandbox. Also, before anyone gets too enamored with Forbes, you need to know that professional climate deniers like James Taylor of the Heritage Institute, are also regular contributors. In addition, Forbes staff writers take their cues from the likes of Taylor. Click here to access Gleick’s op-ed.
  8. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    OK...I found a response from the Met office. They say its lousy journalism. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/met-office-in-the-media-29-january-2012/ I will be moving on now to other things in life.
  9. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    With regard to press releases, etc., this is the original Met Office Press Release (supposedly sneaked out, according to Rose of the Mail), about the paper in question (which was also sneakily referred to here by the Met. The abstract of the paper itself is available here. No doubt Rose would reckon that was sneakily published too. The Met Office's correction to the Mail is available here. Shame not too many Mail readers will get to see it, though...
  10. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    Regarding Allegre, Eli is reporting on an unfolding scandal involving him...
  11. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    Hi SirNub, The Met Office's reply can be found here.
  12. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    Pete @10 - yes, an excellent piece by Gleick. Forbes mostly publishes utter garbage when it comes to the climate, but they also publish good articles from Gleick, presumably so they can maintain the semblace of "balance".
  13. Pete Dunkelberg at 04:24 AM on 31 January 2012
    The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    Remarkable Editorial! An editorial in Forbes actually criticizes the WSJ by name! The Forbes article by Peter Gleick makes many of the same points made here, but less graphically. Gleick particularly stress that the WSJ declined to print the science affirming letter from the NAS, suggesting a bit of bias. Criticism of the Journal in another conservative publication is unusual. Watch for the pushback. Joe Romm stresses everything.
  14. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    Tom Curtis: Thank you for your reply. I have not seen the press release. Do you have a link to it? I suspected that something like this would be the answer. If it is the case that the newspaper cherry-picked one data set, I would be satisfied with your answer. But do you have a link? I would love to show it to my school classes as an example of bad journalism.
  15. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    Albatross's comment here is also relevant.
  16. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    John @28, Thanks for the link. The Met Office are not pleased by Rose's distortions and misrepresentations: "Today the Mail on Sunday published a story written by David Rose entitled “Forget global warming – it’s Cycle 25 we need to worry about”. This article includes numerous errors in the reporting of published peer reviewed science undertaken by the Met Office Hadley Centre and for Mr. Rose to suggest that the latest global temperatures available show no warming in the last 15 years is entirely misleading. Despite the Met Office having spoken to David Rose ahead of the publication of the story, he has chosen to not fully include the answers we gave him to questions around decadal projections produced by the Met Office or his belief that we have seen no warming since 1997." And "Furthermore despite criticism of a paper published by the Met Office he chose not to ask us to respond to his misconceptions." Rose has a long history or misrepresenting scientists' research, distorting and cherry picking. He is a a poor excuse for a journalist. See here and here.
  17. Dikran Marsupial at 03:54 AM on 31 January 2012
    It hasn't warmed since 1998
    Yes, it does show a certain bias in that direction!
  18. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    Dikran, the nature of David Rose's opus is clearly revealed by the fact that he found the time to interview 5 AGW deniers, but not one mainstream climate scientist. Nor did he find the time to interview any of the authors of paper on which he supposedly based his article, and which his article directly contradicts. That is not journalism, except in that very broad sense in which Pravda practiced journalism, and Madison Avenue is the center of Journalism in the USA.
  19. Dikran Marsupial at 03:49 AM on 31 January 2012
    It hasn't warmed since 1998
    Tom, I wouldn't use the temperature of the start and end point as a reliable indicator of the trend. An OLS trend can show warming even when the start point is warmer than the end point, because individual years are sensitive to ENSO etc.
  20. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    So the WSJ rejected the letter from the NAS urging for climate action but prints this long debunked drivel? Mindblowing, but not surprising. The deniers have free access to the press all over the world, it seems, while the real science is being ignored. Still, the anti-science disinformers claim that the press is "warmist" and won't let them voice their opinion? Amazing.
  21. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    Dikran Marsupial @153, in this case it is no warming. The 1997 and 2011 figures are identical in the press release, and 2011 is actually colder than 1997 in the actual data. More importantly the HadCRUT3v trend from 1997 to 2011 inclusive is 0.01 degrees C per decade. Of course, as shown by Foster and Rahmstorf, once short term independent factors such as volcanoes, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Solar Cycle are accounted for, the HadCRU trend from 1997 is > 0.1 C per decade, and is statistically indistinguishable from the long term trend of 0.17 C per decade:
  22. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    SirNubwub, actually that is rather the point. There isn't any 'original paper/press release'. The Daily Mail took the latest updates of the CRU temperature data and NASA solar readings as 'foundation', but all the 'conclusions' they draw came from other sources entirely. DB, the only way to provide "definitive proof" for my position (i.e. that no such statements from CRU/NASA exist) would be to review all statements from those organizations. However, given that we have seen the 'no warming since XYZ' and 'it is the Sun' nonsense over and over and over and over again it doesn't really seem like a stretch to say, 'no, that tripe did not come from NASA or the CRU' without extensive documentation of all NASA/CRU statements. In truth, if you read very carefully, The Daily Mail does an adequate job of differentiating between the data from CRU and NASA and the 'conclusions' deniers outside those organizations draw from them.... except for the claim in the article title that, "if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again". NASA didn't say anything about the Thames... that's all Rose. Also, SirNubwub's statement that, "NASA and CRU have stated that there has been no significant warming in the last 15 years", demonstrates how easy it is to miss the transitions in Rose's article from things said by NASA and CRU sources and those said by deniers.
  23. Dikran Marsupial at 03:34 AM on 31 January 2012
    It hasn't warmed since 1998
    P.S. I could only bring myself to read the first few paragraphs of the newspaper report, but they were enough to show that the problem is that Mr Rose is not competent to be writing articles on this topic, and would benefit from reading a few SkS articles.
  24. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    SirNubwub, there are claims by the Daily Mail. They are based on the press release by the Met Office which shows no increase in temperature on HadCRU figures over the period 1997-2011, but the press release also shows GISTEMP, GHCN, and WMO figures which all show an increase over that period. Ergo, the Daily Mail, by choosing just one of four data sets that suites their narrative are cherry picking. What is worse, it is known that HadCRUT is about to be updated by including more station data, thus reducing some of their gaps in coverage. In the updated HadCRUT, 2005 and 2010 are both warmer than 1998, and there is a distinct positive trend over the period 1997-2011. In other words, not only have the Daily Mail cherry picked, they have cherry picked a data set which is known to be inaccurate compared to the others, and which is about to be supplanted. I discussed this in more detail here. As the moderator indicates @149, the Daily Mail's intellectual integrity as shown by that article cannot be accurately described on SkS due to the comments policy.
  25. Dikran Marsupial at 03:32 AM on 31 January 2012
    It hasn't warmed since 1998
    SirNubwub You are making a common error in interpretiing a statistical statement. "no [statistically] significant warming in the last 15 years" does not mean that "that temps have remained level for the last 15 years". If a trend is not statistically significant, this means that there isn't enough evidence to be able to confidently reject the possibility that the actual trend is flat. However, evidence requires data and if the timespan over which you estimate the trend is sufficiently short, the test for statistical significance will fail to reject this "null hypothesis" even when it is incorrect. Essentially if the trend is not significant, then there are two explanations (i) the trend actually is flat or (ii) there isn't enough data. This is why climatologists use 30 year trends, as these are long enough for the test to be statistcally meaningful. I suspect the paper is referring to a BBC interview with Prof. Phil Jones, where he agreed that the 15 year trend was not statisticlly significant (I think that is no longer true), and also had a go at explaining why this is not surprising.
  26. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    CBDunkerson Yes, I agree that these are only claims by a newspaper about a report. Believe me, I know that newspapers are not always truthful. Aren't you a bit quick to resort to an accusation of lying? Lets see if anyone has the original paper first. I will state that it is a bit odd that the newspaper doesn't supply a link to the original paper or press release.
  27. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    CBDunkerson: exactly...there are claims...that is why I asked if anyone has the original paper.
  28. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    correction: It was the Met office and CRU. It wasn't a NASA paper, but rather NASA researchers are used in other parts of the story.
  29. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    SirNubWub, you seem to be confusing 'The Daily Mail' newspaper with NASA and the CRU. Yes, The Daily Mail claims that NASA and the CRU said something... but they're (-snip-). Disagree? Then cite the spokesperson for NASA and/or CRU who said these things.
    Response:

    [DB] Please refrain from such verbiage without more of a definitive proof offered.

  30. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    Ah, so you're saying that you no longer provide your students with copies of, or links to, Inhofe's "A Skeptic’s Guide to Debunking Global Warming Alarmism"? You remember, the one you had posted at the very top of your student's reading list last year?
  31. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    I know that the this website has ably answered my questions about the apparent pause in warming. However, I would like to know your response to the news that NASA and CRU have stated that there has been no significant warming in the last 15 years. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html I understand that CRU is NOT dismissing the past or future affects of CO2. The interesting statement is just that temps have remained level for the last 15 years. I have not been able to find the actual paper by CRU, so perhaps the newspaper is misrepresenting CRU's statements. Does anyone have the original paper?
  32. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    Tom Curtis @ 24 - thanks for all the information on that, it was very informative
  33. apiratelooksat50 at 01:48 AM on 31 January 2012
    The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    Chris G at 90 Thanks, and regardless of other's peoples misconceptions on here, I do teach my students the current/predominant state of science and robustly encourage them to explore on their own. At the beginning of the year we drill into them the scientific method, and teach them how to research. Other than the regular search engines, we also have access to other sites through our school links, and the libraries of local colleges and universities. It's not about getting hung up on a word. It's about better accuracy. Prior to issuing our first writing assignments, all science teachers in our district work with our students on the importance using the proper words in the proper context. For instance, the differences between probability and possibility, how to use may, shall, will, suggests, etc...
  34. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    DrTsk #1 "This worse that Newt's Videos...." No it ain't ... Archibald is interchangeable with other Easterbrooks and they will not control research budgets or congressional hearings. (I am assuming you are not talking ethics ánd Newt ánd David in one breath ... naturally)
  35. apiratelooksat50 at 01:19 AM on 31 January 2012
    The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    Rob Painting at 89 If you think amphibian populations can be sustained with such a phenomenal rate of extinction you are simply deluding yourself. On the contrary, I think the decline of amphibian species is particularly distressing. Especially, since they are an indicator species. Being a school teacher means what exactly in terms of expertise? I am not just a school teacher. Teaching is a second career that I have the pleasure of doing after I started my environmental consulting company. I have a Bachelor of Science Degree in Biology, and Master of Science degree in Fisheries and Wildlife Biology, and I have over 25 years experience in the environmental field. Fake-skeptics objections flounder because they are essentially arguing with the experts and the overwhelming evidence. Sorry, but that's just the way we roll. Is anything I posted about the status of amphibians and the status of their decline incorrect? If so, please point it out. I provided links to peer-reviewed papers. "........you managed to make more direct in #50." Here's what I wrote at @ 50. Well, the birds, butterflies, lizards and amphibians that have already become extinct from global warming paint a rather different picture. Please list the species and differentiate between direct and indirect extinctions due to global warming. Hopefully your students are taught not to just take your word, and to actually research the scientific literature, all of it,... They are expressedly directed to do that. It's one of the first things I tell them and reiterate throughout the year. I am looking forward to future posts from you on this topic. Are we talking near future?
  36. The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
    Recommended reading: “The overwhelming scientific evidence that says humans are causing the warming of the planet has emerged as the new battlefield in middle and high schools in the U.S.” Source: “Conservatives Use Creationist Playbook to Attack Climate Change Education in Schools” by Bill Walker, Alternet, Jan 26, 2012 To access this in-depth analysis, click here.
  37. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    I've been reading increasingly from denialist websites phrases like "a large and growing number of distinguished scientists ... ." I suggest anytime, anywhere someone writes or says something like that, we toss an Indiana Jones (Raiders of the Lost Ark) question without hesitation: "Who?"
  38. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    I looked up the 16 scientists in the Web of Science, which counts only peer-reviewed publications and is thus more restrictive than Google Scholar. I searched for author and topic "climate change" in the Expanded Science Index. 1.Armstrong has one publication, on the subject of polar bears. It was roundly debunked. 2.Cohen has two, one of which has 55 authors. Both are on technical subjects. 3.Lindzen has four and as we know, is widely published in meteorology. But he still has never written an article falsifying anthropogenic global warming. 4.Score for all the others: zero. Not one of these 16 has ever published a paper showing that anthropogenic global warming is false, or even presenting any evidence that it is false. Surely if global warming is as innocuous as they say it is, this diverse collection of eminent scholars could get a peer-reviewed paper published explaining their evidence. Isn't that what we expect in science? In the long run, opinions backed up by no evidence are worthless.
  39. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    It is interesting that they think publishing an Op-Ed in a business newspaper constitutes "science." Just another example of the tactics and tall tales used by the denialist industry. Exposing Climate Denialism
  40. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    *need not
  41. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    What really annoys me is that Im quite naive to denial (I don't read UK tabloids usually) and the assertions the article was making weren't subtle; its actually titled 'forget global warming'. To the average reader it would seem that they need to concern themselves with this issue anymore - without wanting to sound alarmist myself sure these articles pushing denial are crimes against humanity?
  42. NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)
    Rob@25 Thanks you effort in detailing the explanation. Is it certain that the ENSO cycle and the warming trend are independent? For example - how well do we know that the heat energy tranferred to the atmosphere from the ocean during El Nino is equal to that returned to it during a La Nina?
  43. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    Of course, when HadCRUT4 is released the conspiracati will say: 'They weren't seeing warming so they kept picking which stations they used till the warming appeared, they're hiding the decline!' It'll be further evidence of 'warmist' deception. You know, precisely how they reacted to the ARGO edits. Unfortunately there is zero way to avoid this reaction. Most of the big names will carry their opinions with them to their graves.
  44. New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
    Thanks Micheal. I assumed that with 334 kJ being absorbed by the melting of each kg of ice that will never refreeze and then the reduced albedo of open water, there would be a significant increase in energy available to be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean and permafrost in the ESAS and the adjoining land. Clearly it isn't as important as I thought!
  45. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    apeescape - yup, will be up within the next week or so. We keep pointing out the ocean is still warming and that over 90% of global warming actually goes into the ocean. So we're not remiss in that regard.
  46. David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
    re the daily mail lies, met office news is worth getting email updates from http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/met-office-in-the-media-29-january-2012/
  47. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    Will you guys be covering the Loeb et al. (2012) paper? There's still too much observation error to really tell if there is a discrepancy between radiation flux and ocean heat content. It'll probably require at least 5 more years of data to see if they both match. I didn't like the original Trenberth graph because it smoothed over uncertainties so much. Both ocean heat and radiation imbalance are powerful ways to show that the Earth is warming. I think it's possibly a more effective way to point out the statistical insignificance of atmospheric non-warming over a short period of time.
  48. Dikran Marsupial at 19:17 PM on 30 January 2012
    Katharine Hayhoe, Intent to Intimidate
    @chriskoz wrote "I simply don't understand how certain denominations can develop such incoherent logic." Human nature, as a species it is something at which we excell. Einstein wrote "There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity (although I'm not sure about the universe)" [or words to that effect] ;o)
  49. Dikran Marsupial at 19:13 PM on 30 January 2012
    The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    "The lack of warming for more than a decade" is rather an embarassing statement for the "cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting" to have endorsed, given that 10 years of data is not nearly enough for one to be able to reliably detect a warming trend in the data when it is actually there. Any decent forecaster would have looked at the power of the test and would have known that there is nothing that surprising about a lack of warming for a decade (or two).
  50. The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
    The Wall Street Journal acquired anti-science syndrome years ago. The article is nothing new, and the rogue's gallery is nothing new. The 2200 comments don't even look new. But all the article has to do is drag the same bottom-feeding message over and over again. That's how anchors really work. The interesting side-note was the discovery of a new article - the Garden of CO2 has a hot snake in it: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21399-wheat-will-age-prematurely-in-a-warmer-world.html Wheat yields in northern India are declining - heat-driven premature aging. The guys at the WSJ should debunk that one.

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