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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 67451 to 67500:

  1. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    There is a problem with dodgy thinking in democracies. People are susceptible to superficially attractive arguments. This doesn't matter if politicians and the media choose not to use factually wrong but attractive arguments. But if they do, we have a real problem. Take taxation. During the decade long boom leading up to the GFC, governments should have taxed more. Its easy to see in hindsight, now that governments around the world find themselves with unsustainable levels of debt. But it should have been foreseeable, and politicians on both sides should have spurned tax cuts, arguing instead for caution. But if you want to win an election, you should promise tax cuts, and the media should cheer you on. Its the same with global warming - its easy to be irresponsible and encourage people to deny that we have a problem. The Republicans in the US, and the Coalition in Australia have decided to play the populist card. The Murdoch media has gone along with this. It is annoying, to say the least.
  2. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    Steve McIntyre was a hired gun out of the Fraser Institute; he packed a statistical toolkit to unravel formulas that produced an inevitable hockey blade - from any data. As the Rounds piled up, his attack shifted to the data (notably the Briffa backfire). His current universe has degraded into e-mail gossip smears. The biggest problem with an audit of his critique is the utter failure to produce a reconstruction that could anchor his attacks. The irony is that he abandoned his main attack - on the formula - and by implication gave it a measure of approval. Indeed, if the flaw was in the formula there was no need for a decade of data attacks (his latest claim versus the hockey team is that they all use the same flawed data). Mann's reconstruction has been wiggled and jiggled by subsequent independent lines of research ... but the observations and data match his thesis. And mock McIntyre.
  3. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    With respect to R Gates @38, while the 30/40/30 split may indeed hold in American politics, the characterization of liberals as "extremists" is grotesque and defamatory. It is part of the problem in American politics that moderate views such as are held by American liberals are vilified as being extreme. Frankly, anyone who can vilify center left views as extremist turns out, IMO, to be part of the problem. In consequence I can find little to respect in the opinions of R Gates.
  4. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Mr. Wehner has written a thoughtful, intelligent, and well-reasoned essay, and I applaud his honesty and bravery. Furthermore, I agree with many, though not all of his points. It this age of political polarization, with the world being cast in black & white terms, such moderate, and reasonable approaches will be rejected by the extremes at both ends. We have a case of 30-40-30 politics and political thinking. 30% extremists on one side, 40% moderate in the middle, and 30% extremists on the other. Unfortunately, in a bi-polar political reality that America finds itself in, to win an election, you need to cater to enough of your parties 30% to squeak out oa victory. Embracing reasonable views such as Mr. Wehner's, risks losing the 30% you need for a victory. Perhaps more than anything, Mr. Wehner and others like him, coming from the "left", prove that more than ever, it's time for a true Independent 3rd Party.
  5. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    Following on from my previous post... That such politically-driven obfuscation of scientific fact can occur in both the USA and in Australia (amongst other countries) indicates a fundamental failing in both our societies. I suspect that as well as future generations cursing our current national propensities for overweening social self-indulgence, future historians will be less than complimentary about the decision-making processes of which we are apparently so proud. It seems that in its capacity to achieve sensible conclusions, science has much to teach political democracy. This is reflected in the incredulity so many scientists experience when lay people accept the misrepresentation of solid work such as Mann's. It is telling that the situation appears to be different in France. I suspect at least some amongst those aforementioned future generations would be less horrified, on reflection and with their benefit of hindsight, if Micro$oft Vista (another famously buggy operating system) had been introduced to the world in 2000 at the end of a gun... If only it wasn't oxymoronic to introduce rational thinking to the US and Australia in the same way.
  6. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    What, ultimately, is the outcome of all this? He suddenly becomes less talkative. "Those who attack us have won in the sense that they have succeeded in delaying any action on global warming by ten, twenty, maybe thirty years," he concedes with worry as he sees his country succumbing to anti-science. "Denying either anthropogenic climate change or evolution has become a condition of admission to the Republican Party. That’s something quite new and very scary".
    And therein lies the rub. The Denialati have already won. It matters not to the eventual inevitable public vindication of the science, because the vested interests and the ideologues have achieved the delay they sought. And those ten to thirty years represent the difference between a relatively livable world to bequest to future generations, and one where the global indices of human suffering and of ecological integrity are seriously compromised. It only remains to be seen by how much humanity intends to allow those indices to be seriously compromised.
  7. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Wehner's 12/22 follow-up post is very disappointing. I agree ... that global warming is a manageable risk, not an existential crisis. And I have argued that there are significant uncertainties on how the climate system will respond a century or more from now. But for some on the right ... to insist that AGW is a hoax, the product (more or less) of a massive conspiracy, is, I believe, damaging to conservatism. That is something I do care about. This is not about what is damaging to one part of the political spectrum. What you should care about is the fact that inaction due to these perceived uncertainties is exactly what will turn 'manageable risk' into existential crises. Contemporary liberalism can do as it will. But for conservatism, facts–those stubborn facts–need to be our guiding star. When have facts ever been the guiding star in any ideological debate? Look no further than the tripe put out by the all-conservative-all-the-time American Enterprise Institute, who happily liken those who understand and accept AGW science to a religious cult: All the trappings of religion are there. Original sin: Mankind is responsible for these prophesied disasters, especially those slobs who live on suburban cul-de-sacs and drive their SUVs to strip malls and tacky chain restaurants. Yep, those stubborn facts. Some guiding star.
  8. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    ubrew12@4: The Aquarium of the Pacific is just inside Dana Rohrabacher's Congressional district. Here is a video clip of Rohrabacher, in his full glory, questioning Dr. Richard Alley at a Congressional hearing. (Warning: Secure all hot beverages before watching it!) Rohrabacher, btw, is now serving in his 12th term, and IIRC has never had to sweat re-election. Keep that in mind as you watch the video. There are lots of hard-core Rohrabacher supporters living pretty close to where Mann will be speaking, so heckling wouldn't be unexpected. In fact, given the political views of many in that area (especially to the south, in Orange County), there's the possibility of being treated to a bit of a right-wing "freak-show" outside the venue. Folks attending might want to have their videocam/iphone/android devices handy. There's the potential of getting some very "YouTube worthy" video footage.
  9. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    caerbannog@1: Sad to think that Long Beach would have residents who would heckle Dr. Mann. Long Beach, and its magnificent harbor, are literally on the front lines of this debate.
  10. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    it is a shame that US seems to succumb to those issues. however my impression is: world is changing ... hopefully :)
  11. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    guinganbresil @26, I recommend you play DDT ban myth bingo, making sure to follow the links, until you know better than to regurgitate falsehoods about DDT.
  12. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    caerbannog@1 Thank you for the heads up on that! Tix purchased!
  13. Medieval project gone wrong
    markx - the critical take-away is that MCA was different from what we see today. While many more proxy temperature records would be a big help, it seems LIA was truly global (though much less pronounced in SH) and resulted from global negative forcings. MCA is reproduced reasonably well in models from known forcings, (see CH6 of AR4) but while there were global forcings, there was obviously also strong regional factors at play as well.
  14. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Thank you for this excellent contribution on this topic. it seems that after BEST the minds in USA and elswhere are changing. See also the excellent article of Susan Hassol at the AGU-Fall meeting 2011 (http://vimeo.com/33298236 ) - I am eager to experience when the GERMAN EIKE is changing their attitudes :)
  15. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Manzi (quoted in Wehner): "Global warming is a real risk, but its impact over the next century could plausibly range from negligible to severe." All us 'alarmists' have been saying is: why gamble with your only home? Wehner goes on to claim: "There's an intellectually credible case to be made that it's unwise to embrace massive, harmful changes to our economy in the face of significant uncertainties based on incomplete knowledge of how the climate system will respond in the middle part of the 22nd century." As long as we're talking about 'uncertainties': where does the unanimous conservative 'certainty' of 'massive, harmful changes to our economy' come from? The most credible accounting of these changes, the Stern Review, places the cost at 2% of global GDP, which is 1/5th to 1/20th the cost of doing nothing. And that was before photovoltaic costs started plunging. This is what kills me about this 'conversation' we are having with American conservatives. We're so happy to find one of them admitting that AGW is real that we'll publish his claim that until we know, with certainty, what the climate will be 140 years from now, it would be 'unwise' to impose 'certainly harmful' green technologies on poor Americans. Regarding conservative actions over the last 15 years (deregulation of banking, disinterest in derivative and housing bubbles, invasions over 'certain WMD', Supply-Side economics) the most inevitable certainty of all has been the certainty of AGW, the one certainty conservatives still doubt! Wehner, like most of his ilk, plays fast and loose with the concept of 'certainty', and their record is not exactly good.
  16. Climate Solutions by Rob Painting
    > solar powered ventilation system for our house. I'd like to see more on that, whenever > carbon per acre per year You might find something through http://nnrg.org/NW-Neutral (They aren't yet considering biodiversity but it's a start)
  17. Michael Mann, hounded researcher
    A quick advance heads-up for those who live in Southern California (or will be in SoCal in February). Dr. Mann will be speaking at the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach (near Los Angeles) on Feb 15. Details here. I wouldn't be surprised if this event brings some noisy detractors out of the woodwork, so anyone who happens to be in this neck of the woods (or what passes for woods in SoCal) on Feb 15 should consider dropping by and giving Dr. Mann a show of support.
  18. Infrared Iris Never Bloomed
    Has anyone used a 'modern' version of John Tyndall's 1861 experiment to demonstrate the effects of CO2? More specifically, is there any laboratory data relating to the effect of the additional 75ppm of CO2 added to the atmosphere since 1958? Any comments would be much appreciated - thank you.
  19. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Suggested reading: “Capitalism vs. the Climate”, The Nation (USA) magazine, Nov 28, 2011 print edition. Click here to access this in-depth and thought-provoking cover story by Naomi Klein.
  20. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    John Hartz @28 thank for sharing Menken's thoughts, so prescient of contemporary drift of our democracies toward populism. An unwelcome corollary of populism is that who's in office or in charge of something do not take any responsability because he's just representing the will of the people. What Menken ironically call the perfection of democracy actually is the end of it.
  21. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Lets stop banging our heads against a wall, trying to convince the climate change deniers. Instead ---- Even the most stubborn conservative can hardly deny that fossil fuel is a non renewable resource, that we are destroying mountains and rivers to get at coal, that we are hostage to some pretty shonky regimes that just happen to have fossil fuel resources, that we are destroying the society of other fossil fuel rich countries by supporting their local Mafia, that we are pumping massive amounts of arsenic, mercury and even radioactivity into the atmosphere from our coal fired power plants etc. etc. The very measures that would address the above problems would also address climate change http://mtkass.blogspot.com/2010/10/forget-climate-change.html
  22. Philippe Chantreau at 05:39 AM on 30 December 2011
    A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Guiganbresil "Both viewpoints have their irrational extremes - blatant environmental abuse for petty profit on the one hand, and wholesale abuse of human rights on the other." Funny, considering that blatant environemental abuse is iself so often associated with Human rights abuse. As for that DDT issue, why did you believe the version that you just tried to regurgitate here? How much did you research it? Concerning those who supposedly see fossil fuels as an opportunity to benefit mankind, it is patent that the amount of evidence they would need to change their viewpoint is infinite. That seems to be especially the case for those who sit at the top of the pyramid of "benefit."
  23. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    This is more than a top-down, leadership-driven issue. Not many (especially those outside the US) may be aware that a fundamental shift in US environmental/political life took place in the November 2010 mid-term elections. An electorate fed up with what they were told was 'big government' was seduced into electing a large number of inexperienced, ideologically-driven folks both as their US representatives and their state government. As a result, environmental policy is now more of a mixed bag of conflicting priorities than ever. This report is an excellent summary, providing a context for some of the political struggles on the larger stage. Our biggest challenges are: (1) State budget crises that will severely limit environmental agencies’ capacity to implement and enforce the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and other environmental laws; (2) Unprecedented ideological opposition to environmental progress among too many state legislators across the Midwest; and (3) The public’s focus on job creation and retention rather than environmental and other quality of life issues. This is an example of the principle that "All politics is local": Politicians must appeal to the simple, mundane and everyday concerns of those who elect them into office. Those personal issues, rather than big and intangible ideas, are often what voters care most about... Climate change will remain 'big and intangible' - until we figure out a way to make it personal; and that's a tall order, as this year of disastrous weather was very personal indeed.
  24. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    The Mencken quote in the following letter-to-the-editor is priceless. Paul Krugman’s “Republicans against science” (Views, Aug. 30) states that “odds are that one of these years the world’s greatest nation will find itself ruled by a party that is aggressively anti-science, indeed anti-knowledge.” This line reminds me of the great H.L. Mencken’s words in the Baltimore Evening Sun in 1920: “As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people....On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” Woodrow Wilson was president at the time; to be followed by Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover. We all know what happened next. Peter W. Gerrard, Kehlen, Luxembourg Letters to the International Herald Tribune Politics and Science
  25. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    guinganbresil wrote: "the banning of DDT in 1972 (~90,000,000 premature deaths, billions suffering from malaria)..." Nonsense. This is the same kind of ridiculous fiction we regularly see applied to global warming. The 'ban' in 1972 prohibited the use of DDT for agricultural spraying in the United States. How has that caused millions of deaths / billions to suffer malaria? Spraying for public health reasons, i.e. to control malaria, remains legal in the U.S. to this day and the 'ban' never involved any form of spraying outside the US. "Some see the Earth essentially as a gift to mankind - one that deserves stewardship and respect, but is essentially for our benefit. On the other hand, some see humans as interlopers mooching off the Earth - so the Earth should be protected from bad human activity." Actually, I think most environmentalists see it more in terms of 'do not foul your own nest'.
  26. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    I think there is a fundamental difference in how the left and right look at the relationship between mankind and the Earth. Some see the Earth essentially as a gift to mankind - one that deserves stewardship and respect, but is essentially for our benefit. On the other hand, some see humans as interlopers mooching off the Earth - so the Earth should be protected from bad human activity. Both viewpoints have their irrational extremes - blatant environmental abuse for petty profit on the one hand, and wholesale abuse of human rights on the other... If you must make a judgement call, just compare a two of examples: Exxon Valdez spill (~250,000 sea birds, ~3,000 sea mammals) to the banning of DDT in 1972 (~90,000,000 premature deaths, billions suffering from malaria)... I believe this dichotomy in viewpoint underpins the difference in the conservative vs. liberal response to AGW. Some see fossil fuels (and nuclear...) as a opportunity to benefit mankind - quite a bit of evidence would be needed to convince them to abandon the use without an attractive alternative. The other viewpoint would easily accept that something that benefits humans must be adverse to the environment... and must be stopped.
  27. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    I agree with DB about the messaging from the leadership. The poll numbers that mc cites for republicans who disbelieve AGW really increased over the last decade. It also responded to things like Al Gore's movie, the 2007 IPCC release and "climatgate" reaction. All that indicates the influence of top down messaging (working against other headwinds). Basically, I think the recent marketing strategy of the conservative/republican leadership (since ca 1994) has increasignly been to elicit broad populist distrust of targeted issues that can be characterized as elitist, intellectual or liberal. These issues are characterized as attempts to impose a different set of core values on "regular people" or that they reflect self interest on the part of the elite (implicitly at the expense of the regular folk through taxes, regulation). The focus on specific ersonalities (Gore, Hillary, Pelosi, Obama) allows them to paint movie villains that fit these preconceptions neatly and provide a focus for distrust. "Scientists", with their white coats, crazy hair and evil laughs, are easy targets too. Linking these personalities to specific issues then becomes a form of branding by association. AGW, Al Gore and Dr. Frankenstein become inseparable. It's a strategy that can be applied to a large range of issues with relative ease because it builds on a set of preexisting inclinations and a few carefully crafted characterizations developed over a long period of time. Especially in the current economic climate, it effectively generates anger and activism among the rank and file, while also serving monied special interests that fill the campaign coffers. Its quite brilliant from a purely strategic point of view. The democrats try to mimic it, but I think their rank and file are less susceptible to this approach. The problem is that this broad brush strategy generates such wide ranging cynicism about intelligent discourse and such political and social polarization that any basis for policy discussion and compromise gets "boxed in" by partisan fervor, even within the party itself. Also, because the strategy seems to be based primarily on locating convenient targets that elicit both populist distrust of the other party and special interest dollars, reality and policy positions can easily become divorced from each other. Eventually both things make it hard for the leadership to lead in a meaningful way. Personally, I think we're seeing the downside in congress and in the Republican primary race right now. The need to resort to transparent tricks like referring to the rich only as "job creators," also highlights the inherent tensions in this appraoch. I'd like to think it will eventually force a reconsideration or recalibration of strategies that will enable conservatives to see the point of embracing the science behind AGW and other issues. But that could be slow.
  28. The Debunking Handbook Part 2: The Familiarity Backfire Effect
    I think the formula of simply stating "Mythbusting facts" works well.
  29. Medieval project gone wrong
    Thanks Tom #44, for the references. I see Mann has maps there (original paper on both MWP (MCA) and LIA) showing the position and types of the proxies – and I see the maps were derived from the models (6 climate simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model GISS-ER (S12) Following a control run to establish stable initial conditions, six transient runs extending from 850 to 1900) I must say it worried me a bit that there are not a vast number of proxies for the MWA, and those (especially the few ice cores) seem to be in areas which did tend to show warming. But it is certainly beyond me to discuss such modelling and such a detailed paper any further. I note Mann did provide some explanation of the pattern in some more good maps in figure 3, (showing the difference between the MWP and the LIA For comparison with model simulation results, it is useful to eliminate the influence of the choice of modern reference period by examining the pattern of the MCA-LIA difference itself (Fig. 3). The MCA-LIA pattern highlights the extent to which the MCA is both more “La Niña–like ……(and)…. suggestive of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and closely related Arctic Oscillation (AO) sea-level pressure (SLP) ……
  30. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    DB: "the issue more properly is not that there isn't more American conservatives that agree with AGW" The polls say otherwise. "their elected representatives that have kowtowed to the "special interests"" Who was it that said we get the kind of government that we deserve? de Tocqueville: ... a democracy could see "a multitude of men," uniformly alike, equal, "constantly circling for petty pleasures," unaware of fellow citizens, and subject to the will of a powerful state which exerted an "immense protective power". That is an accurate description of the current state of our government; just substitute 'corporate greed' for 'state.'
  31. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    @13 Tom Smerling: "Inglis did not lose "because he acknowledged the reality of AGW," at least according to those closest to the race." Yeah, I got the impression from that NPR piece it was due to the AGW thing, but now that you mentioned it, I read up elsewhere and see that there were other issues.
  32. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    @ Paul D Speaking as an American, Republican-voting conservative who agrees with climate science and AGW, the issue more properly is not that there isn't more American conservatives that agree with AGW. There are ample conservatives who believe in the science (what little they know of it). The real issue is that they are not in a position of authority and that they do not speak out. The rank and file American conservative is more preoccupied with job security, keeping the lights on and feeding hungry mouths that depend on them. It is thus their elected representatives that have kowtowed to the "special interests" (that have a vested interest in the status quo) that comprise the real stumbling block. When you cannot stop the avalanche then preventing the snowballs from rolling downhill that causes the avalanche is the agenda being prosecuted by the lobbyists.
  33. Medieval project gone wrong
    markx, if you want more information, the original paper and supplementary material are available online. The essential point is that "a proxy data set comprising more than a thousand" proxies is used to determine temperatures at particular locations. The number of proxies reduces as you go back in time, with only 20 screened proxies in 900 AD. Knowledge of weather patterns associated with ENSO events, PDO, NAO etc is then used to project temperatures for regions without proxies from the data available in other areas. Such a method has significant uncertainties. Consequently the map is marked with various hatch marks to indicate whether or not the projections in particular areas pass one of two tests of statistical significance. In areas with cross hatches, the projection passes both tests. Areas with neither cross, left, or right hatch marks fail both tests of statistical significance and should be considered dubious. The supplementary material includes a map showing the location of all proxies used (fig S1). Also of interest is figure S9 which shows the pattern or warmth for the interval 900-1100 AD.
  34. UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
    chris @19:
    "That hasn't happened with the UAH duo who have continued a 20-year assertion that their (ever-changing) analyses are correct and demonstrate a fundamental incompatibility with physical understanding. They have shown little interest in addressing the apparent inconsistencies which turn out to a very large part to be due to errors in the very analyses they have asserted to be "precise"."
    The phrase, "often wrong, but never in doubt" comes to mind.
  35. Medieval project gone wrong
    Ah, paleoclimate proxies. (I just read the comments on the MWP page). Should have realized that myself, pretty obvious - sorry!
  36. Medieval project gone wrong
    Thanks CB! #41. Makes perfect sense with the pair of maps (MWP and today compared with baseline temps of 1960-1990) and the difference is dramatic! Still wondering about the source (hence accuracy) of the MWP data (ie, Tropical Pacific? Central Asia?, North America? ), and still wondering what could cause such a 'roving' temperature aberration.
  37. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    I have to disagree with the moderators. Because American politics is so polarised due to fear of the media and big corporations, then writing an article about a conservative politicians views about climate science makes the article political. But the problem isn't with the article, the problem is with American politics and that is why the article is justified. Statistically there should be more American conservatives that agree with AGW, the fact that there isn't suggests that more than just facts are distorting the stats.
  38. UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
    victull, I agree very much with Tom's summary above. I also don't have a problem with Dessler's statement. As Tom says the measurement of tropospheric temperature trends using satellite MSU (or weather balloons) is difficult, and there are subjective choices to be made in merging satellite records, correcting for extraneous contributions to apparent temperature etc. It's perfectly acceptable to be skeptical of these measures. They are useful though. Largely (but not exclusively) through the efforts of the RSS team we can conclude that apparent tropospheric warming is so far not inconsistent with expectations from physical understanding of the earth response to radiative forcing. That's a very important conclusion, and unfortunately one that Christy/Spencer seem determined to misrepresent. In fact scientists generally love finding apparent incompatibilities between predicted and observational phenomena (in this case between apparent tropospheric temperatures and physics-based expectations); we know there's science to be done and discoveries to be made in resolving these. Most scientists use them productively to focus efforts that advance our knowledge/methodologies; very few use them as S/C to pursue non-scientific aims. This is apparent by looking at the published work of the UAH and RSS teams. The RSS work simply inspires confidence that bright minds are focussing on resolving the issues productively. That doesn't mean that the RSS data is necessarily "correct". But their analyses are supported by scientifically justifiable choices, with careful consideration of errors and so on. That hasn't happened with the UAH duo who have continued a 20-year assertion that their (ever-changing) analyses are correct and demonstrate a fundamental incompatibility with physical understanding. They have shown little interest in addressing the apparent inconsistencies which turn out to a very large part to be due to errors in the very analyses they have asserted to be "precise". As for Dessler, it would be interesting to know the context in which he said the statement you copied. (One of) Dessler's expertises is in analysis of tropospheric water vapour and how this responds to greenhouse forcing to provide climate feedbacks. We know that tropospheric water vapour has increased (itself an independent confirmation of a warming tropsophere), and while the water vapour feedback largely arises from changes in water vapour in the upper troposphere, Dessler's work would be made a whole lot easier if the vertical structure of tropospheric temperature, and its response to greenhouse forcing, was known more accurately. Then the relationship between absolute and relative humidity, and the strength of the water vapour feedback, etc., could be determined rather more accurately. So I expect Dessler's statement may be related to a frustration with the continuing uncertainty in these measures in that they directly impinge on his work. In Dessler's papers I've read that address water vapour feedbacks in response to surface warming he doesn't use satellite MSU temperature data...
  39. littlerobbergirl at 22:57 PM on 29 December 2011
    A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    CBD - i know a few other 'exceptions to the rule', not 'neocons' but hard core free market conservatives. one is actually taking his company into renewable energy where he sees a big business opportunity. nice subversive use of the 'al gore' dog whistle in the excerpt; talking to them in their own language!
  40. Medieval project gone wrong
    markx, the answers to your questions and more information about the map can be found in the article it came from; MWP article
  41. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    A neo-conservative who accepts basic scientific facts and makes rational suggestions? Suddenly I think I understand how AGW deniers must feel when confronted with proof that their understanding of 'reality' is flawed in some way. I've gotten too used to these people being 'wrong' about everything... science, economics, foreign policy, social issues (though those are more in the realm of opinion). The last time I really agreed with something they did was when W Bush spoke out against anti-muslim bigotry in the US... and I couldn't believe he was on the right side of that either. That said, I think I'm on solid ground saying this guy is the exception rather than the rule. The idea that rational scientific discussion about AGW, evolution, anything environmentally related, et cetera could flourish in any major branch of US 'conservatism' (as much a misnomer as 'skeptics' IMO) seems more than far-fetched.
  42. Medieval project gone wrong
    Thanks Tom #37. I'm not quite sure what the map is showing? It is titled "Temperature Pattern for the Medieval Warm Period" but you state underneath "...represents the global average increase in temperature from the 1960-1990 baseline to current temperatures...." I gather this map/chart is a three century mean of the MWP 'time'? The rise is then compared with which period? Given the doubts on the data we do have for that period, is all this information really available? (Sorry for all the questions, and I made some assumptions to keep the questioning to one post). Thanks Rob #30. Nothing being argued at all. Just commenting on perhaps the very reason the main topic of the article is of such interest to many, and why it will probably become more so as more such reports come out.
  43. UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
    jmorpuss @17, the book is a university level text book on remote sensing using microwaves that does not deal explicitly with temperature sensing directly. Specifically, the Microwave Sensing Unit and the Advanced Microwave Sensing Unit are not discussed even when missions with those instruments where discussed. The author is a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the book appears to be well respected. Consequently it would be a very useful resource for anybody seeking detailed background knowledge to understand issues that effect detection of air temperatures using satellites, especially if they are familiar with calculus. (It would be heavy going if you are not.) Clearly, therefore, it is a relevant resource for the topic of the main post. What is not on topic here is your usual rambling expositions of your crackpot theory of global warming based on physics that you clearly do not understand.
  44. UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
    Tom Curtis Do you think this book on remote sensing is worth reading or is it not welcome hear. It's explains alot of interesting things regarding the electromagnetic processes and interactions http://www.iki.rssi.ru/asp/pub_sha1/pub_sha1.htm
  45. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Pertinax's distraction actually summed up the response problem perfectly. Stupidity is intimidated by the nature and foundation of the problem. They don't 'get it', but they do understand 'lefties', 'the menace of socialism', and 'ivory tower parasites'. This is 'their time'. If anyone knows a way to demonstrate to them the consequences of their stupidity policies, yesterday would be an excellent time to lay it out.
  46. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    Jimspy, I think those promoting promoting policies that fly in the face of both the scientific and economic majorities are practicing deception, plain and simple. Hence: Decepticon.
  47. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    It's been moved and seconded that a new way be found to distinguish neo-cons or other intellectually honest conservatives from those who deny science. Apparently the word "agnatology" means "anti-science." I propose that a new term such as "agna-con" or some such commingling of "agnatology" and "conservative" be coined to make this distinction. Less frivolously, I think some way should be found to place a premium on robust dialog with the realistic brand of conservatives - inviting them to the table, relishing the conversation, agreeing to disagree politely where appropriate, and generally making it clear that such discourse is the order of the day. In other words, MARGINALIZE the agna-cons and send the message that, until they've "read the memo" and signed on to the idea that Yes, Virginia, There IS Global Warming, they are the skunks at the garden party.
  48. A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
    It is an election year. The Democrats will use anything including climate change to pursue their political aims and the Republicans will oppose what ever they say. It is far easier for conservatives to just deny AGW than to try and fight all the increasing spending, taxing regulations and subsidies to Democrat causes that will be proposed in its name. So they will do it. { - off topic political statements snipped -}
    Moderator Response: [muoncounter] Please restrict your comments to the topic of the post. This is not about politics; it is about a conservative response to climate change science.
  49. UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
    victull @14, I would support Dessler's claim. The simple fact is that measuring tropospheric temperatures by satellite is very complex. This is made more difficult because more recent instruments use a slightly different frequency than did earlier instruments, and hence weight different altitudes differently. In addition to complexities involved in correlating measurements from different instruments on different satellites, you must compensate for orbital drift, diurnal drift and changing altitude. You must do so over a great range of atmospheric conditions, with corrections over the tropics not necessarily appropriate in the sub-arctic due to different altitudes of the tropopause and humidity levels. On top of that you are relying on instruments that sample a significant proportion of the stratosphere (which has an opposite temperature trend to the troposphere) and which have different weights for low altitudes over ocean and over land due to the different reflectivity of land and water to microwaves. These difficulties all apply to the TMT channel which is based on a single instrument (in each satellite). The TLT temperature series is derived from the TMT channel by various ad hoc adjustments, based on either the difference between data from vertical and lateral views (UAH), on microwave radiation models (RSS). It is no wonder then, that the four teams measuring TMT (channel 2) trends obtain four different results. (Note, by my reading V&G measure the trend of Channel 2, ie, TMT; not TLT as shown in table 1 above. Further, Fu et al measure a hybrid channel of their own devising which does not strictly correspond to either TMT or TLT.) Nor is it any surprise that the two teams measuring TLT trends also come up with different results. This situation represents a stark contrast to the measurement of surface trends. The different methodological choices of the various measurements of surface trends are known,and can be easily compensated for. When that is done so that we have apples to apples comparisons, the resulting trends are almost identical, and well within error. Therefore we can be very confident that the surface trend is very close to that obtained by GIStemp. (Not HadCRU as it does not have global coverage.) With satellites, however, we know UAH is under estimating the trend with a high degree of confidence. However, we do not know that RSS is correct, or that it itself does not also underestimate the trend.
  50. UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
    Good stuff (but feel free to delete after seen) Minor suggestions: in the tables, can you get the decimal points to line up? That helps, visually. Alternatively, albeit at hint of unwarranted precision, make them all 3 decimals. Also, you might want to link to: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/the-real-global-warming-signal/

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