Recent Comments

Prev  1354  1355  1356  1357  1358  1359  1360  1361  1362  1363  1364  1365  1366  1367  1368  1369  Next

Comments 68051 to 68100:

68051. Tom Curtis at 22:48 PM on 17 December 2011
       Climate sensitivity is low
       RW1, clearly you do not understand. What determines the strength of the greenhouse effect is the difference in the energy as it is radiated to space from energy radiated from the atmosphere, and the energy that would have been radiated from the surface in the same spectral band with no atmosphere. Therefore, the thing which determines the strength of the greenhouse effect is the temperature of the gas or cloud top which radiates to space relative to surface temperature, not the temperature of any intervening cloud top or gas which may absorb IR radiation in the same spectral band. The consequence of this is that in the band of strongest absorption (and emission by CO2), it contributes almost all of the greenhouse effect when compared to low lying cloud or water vapour. It will still contribute most of the greenhouse effect over medium level cloud. Over high cloud, the effect will be similar, depending on the cloud. Consider the spectrum below taken over the Sahara. It was taken on a day with high humidity as can be seen by the strong H20 signal in the spectrum. From the temperature difference between the black body curve of the surface (320 K) and the water vapour bands (280 K) we can tell that the effective altitude of emission to space from water vapour was about 6 Km, approximately the boundary layer between midlevel (alto) clouds and high level (cirrus) clouds. The effective altitude of emission to space of the CO2 is approximately 15 km is this case, which is also approximately the altitude of the tropopause. The important regions of the chart for this discussion are the yellow and green areas. The yellow area is approximately the area of overlap between the absorption/emission spectrum of the water vapour and the CO2. The absorption band of water vapour weakens in that area, so that in the absence of cloud and CO2 the H2O absorption/emission band would in fact slope up to 320 K within the yellow area, so that the yellow area overstates the greenhouse effect of water vapour in the area of overlap. Of course, solid cloud tops of that temperature would result in a spectrum following the 280 K black body line except for a trough in the green area, and an ozone peak from the stratosphere. Importantly, that means that in either case, the green area represents a contribution to the greenhouse effect which exists regardless of the presence or absence of H2O, either as water vapour or clouds. More importantly, in the complete absence of water vapour or clouds, the CO2 trough would have occupied almost the entire area of both the yellow and green zones. In this situation, the most accurate description is that in the area of overlap, CO2 contributes the entire greenhouse effect, as CO2 would have contributed all of that effect regardless of whether H2O was present or not. There are circumstances in which CO2 actually counters the greenhouse effect of very high clouds. There are also circumstances in the Antarctic winter in which CO2 contributes an anti-greenhouse warming effect. Consequently it is wrong to assume that the globally averaged effect of CO2 with water vapour present is the same as its globally averaged effect without water vapour present. But none-the-less, CO2 contributes a substantial part of the greenhouse effect in the spectral band where CO2 and H2O emissions overlap, and therefore best estimates place the contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect at about 20%, with a further 5% coming from other well mixed green house gases (O3, CH4, NO2, etc). Therefore your persistent claim that CO2 contributes 10% or less of the greenhouse effect is just false. Finally, I note on rereading your posts that you continually claim that half of absorbed radiation is emitted upward to space, while half is emitted downward to Earth. For a layer of atmosphere thin enough to have approximately the same temperature through its entire thickness, this is true, but it is not true of the atmosphere as a whole as can be easily determined by looking at the diagram @273. That you should think so suggests you continue to use a single slab model of the atmosphere to guide your thinking. Such models are false representations of the atmosphere,and only used in climate science as instructional tools to introduce more complex models with (in typical cases) around 20 layers. Using a single slab model reduces the atmosphere to a 2 dimensional shell, making my comment @275 exactly correct. Please take due note of the Trenberth et al diagram, and of the explanation above, and allow some reality into your model of the atmosphere.
       Response:

       [DB] Note:  This comment was inadvertently deleted and has been reinstated.  Apologies.

68052. John Russell at 20:50 PM on 17 December 2011
       Latest summary confirms death of Chacaltaya glacier, and acceleration of global glacier shrinkage in the 2000s
       There is more info and a more up to date picture of the Chacaltaya glacier here. Last time I was in Chile, the issue of reducing glacial run off from the Andes was becoming very important for agriculture as it accounts for most of the irrigation required on the coastal plain to the west. I would guess it has similar effects to the east where glaciers feed the headwaters of some of South America's major rivers. A good summary here.
68053. oneiota at 17:11 PM on 17 December 2011
       Latest summary confirms death of Chacaltaya glacier, and acceleration of global glacier shrinkage in the 2000s
       @1 What are the specific issues arising in California? The "flow-on" effect (forgive the pun) of glacier retreat whilst not particularly on the topic is an interesting one. I guess it is where science will inform policy. I'm aware that one of the howling points raised by the doubters has been the IPCC's assessment of numbers of people who could be affected by loss of melt water from glaciers. There is a recent paper: Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes that attempts to correlate dependence on melt water with population density: "Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins." This sort of study will hopefully help the IPCC sharpen its pencil in this area.
68054. Bob Lacatena at 17:06 PM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       1212, skept.fr, The Wood experiment was poorly designed, and due to its flaws it proves nothing one way or the other. SkS will have a post on it (hopefully) soon, as a matter of fact, but for the basic synopsis see my previous comment on this thread. I don't believe the falsification exists in the peer reviewed literature, just because it's so old (and the experiment itself was never peer reviewed, either). Everyone knows that it's wrong. Refuting it would be rather like writing a peer reviewed paper to refute Ptolemaic model of the solar system. It's just not necessary.
68055. Riduna at 15:58 PM on 17 December 2011
       Latest summary confirms death of Chacaltaya glacier, and acceleration of global glacier shrinkage in the 2000s
       It would be interesting to know how deterioration of glaciers is effecting human populations and their agriculture. We know that contraction of glaciers on the Sierra Nevada is causing competition between urban populations and Central Valley agriculture in California. Is this evident elsewhere?
68056. Philippe Chantreau at 15:02 PM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       There is nothing to address. G&T do not have a point. They play on words, trying to describe something for what it is not and then attack it. G&T is the ultimate strawman. That you can be fooled by it indicates that my assessment is accurate.
68057. Tristan at 13:24 PM on 17 December 2011
       Is there a case against human-caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 3
       Yes, that's the paper. Unfortunately I don't have the scientific background to eloquently describe how bad it is.
68058. Tom Curtis at 12:44 PM on 17 December 2011
       Renewables can't provide baseload power
       skept.fr @18: 1) Reference to "poisoning the water" or "poisoning the wells" is reference to a rhetorical tactic, and hence is a comment on your methods, not your motives. What is more, as you apply similar (and inaccurate) methodological claims about myself (see your point 3), and have directly questioned other commentors motives in other threads, your challenge here is hypocritical to say the least. 2) The [r]Evolution scenario was widely, and unjustifiably, attacked based on its authorship at the time of release of the SSREN report for political reasons. I have extensively argued against that attack both here and on the blog of Mark Lynas, the author the Nature Climate Change article to which you refer. Applying Lynas' implicit standard that employees of, and papers commissioned by, advocacy groups should automatically be excluded IPCC processes is unsustainable both because it excludes some work of genuine quality, and because a similar standard is not applied (and could not be applied) to industry groups, notably fossil fuel industry groups. 3) You said in the Farenheight 451 thread:

       "[KR] I think renewable energy development can be a definite win-win scenario [skept.fr] I already gave above the numbers from IPCC SRREN 2011 concerning real capacities of RE in 2050 according to the median estimate of energy-economy scenarios. So you have to be specific : in a 450 ppm target in 2050, RE are planned to likely produce something like 250EJ/y, half of what we need now for 7 billion (500 EJ), not to say what we will need tomorrow for 9 billion."

       The context of that discussion was your challenge to the pausibility of achieving a 450 ppmv target, which you then when on to so sarcastically describe. I note that the various SSREN scenarios all allow for an increasing population and ongoing third world development. As the entire basis of your argument against a 450 ppmv target is that it is incompatible with population growth and third world development. Given that you purport that we should accept the IPCC conclusions (at least whenever they agree with you), then we ought also to accept the conclusion that a 450 ppmv target is consistent with ongoing population growth and third world development. There is therefore, no straw man here of my construction. I see that you have been picking a lot of cherries, however.
68059. skept.fr at 12:01 PM on 17 December 2011
       Renewables can't provide baseload power
       #17 Tom 1) SkS Comments Policy indicates : 'You may criticise a person's methods but not their motives' So please, stick on that and stop with insulting metaphor like "Your attempt to poison the water". My point above was informative and IPCC-based. I don't want to lose time with endless over-interpretations of each of my word here. 2) You call "pick out" some informations that have been widely discussed, notably in Nature Climate Change. So I suppose my "pick out" is nor more that information for readers from the science news on climate. Every one can read here and here this debate about the SRREN 2011. Of course [r]Evolution is eligible to SRREN (it has been!) as are the fossil-funded scenario I mention on my comment. And in a previous comment in the WEO2011 discussion, I speak of Dr Teske as a scientist and lead author of SRREN 2011 (that is of course compatible with the fact that the [r]–Evolution model Dr Teske manages is an order from EREC-Greenpeace). 3) As far I remember, I've quoted these data in the IEA WEO2011 discussion not for "proving" the 450 target cannot be sustained (our point). Here is what I actually said : Unless you cherrypick optimistic models (exactly as some persons cherrypick optimistic CO2 sensitivity, but they are not serious for that reason), you have a higher probability of modest contribution of RE in the future energy mix : about 50% of the primary energy we consume now, but in 2050 there will be 9 billions humans to feed, heat, educate, etc. and we hope in better conditions than now. Most of these models depend on nuclear, biofuel, CCS coal, etc. Another strawman from you : I said exactly what I say here, quite in different terms, 248 EJ/y from RE is half our current production, most scenarios rely on nuclear, CCS, etc. 4) "What is lacking is not the ability but the political will" You can perfectly defend this personal and general interpretation, that was not my point. I just give some results from SRREN 2011, informative for anyone is interested in the energy conditions of climate mitigation.
       Response:

       [DB] "stop with insulting metaphor like "Your attempt to poison the water""

       Straw man.  Tom criticizes your methods, not your motives (as your quotation from the Comments Policy clearly points out).  No style points here are awarded for rhetorical techniques employed.

       In the future, please better adhere to the Comments Policy yourself rather than attempting to use it to chastise others.  And sticking to facts and citable sources from the peer-reviewed literature will better support your position instead of snark and sarcasm.

68060. Tom Curtis at 11:57 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       skept.fr @1212, the 2009 paper is a good catch, and thanks for the h/t. However, it is possible to perform a "classroom" demonstration of the greenhouse effect. To do so you require two sealed boxes, with transparent lids. One should be transparent to IR radiation, while the other should be opaque to IR radiation. Both boxes should be evacuated (contain a vacuum) to prevent convection. Further, there should be a transparent, IR absorbing filter with a low emissivity film on the side away from the lamp to screen out IR radiation equally from both boxes. The low emissivity film is necessary because otherwise the filter will itself radiate IR, which is then not properly controlled for. It may also be necessary to evacuate the space between the "lid" and the filter to avoid convective cooling of the lids with outside air. The experiment could be performed with "lids" consisting of two IR transparent plates with the space between filled with CO2 and Argon (or Nitrogen) respectively, however, I believe the gas would need to be at substantial pressure, or the apparatus very large, to detect a significant effect in this case.
68061. skept.fr at 11:23 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       #1209 Sphaerica : "As has been explained, the Wood experiment is flawed. You cannot take it to be a model for anything, or make any inference from it." Sorry, I'v not read the all thread, but I used to read Greenhouse was not a good analogy, notably because of Wood's experiment, even here for example in France in this (rather prestigious and totally 'mainstrem') ENS popularization website for teachers and laymen. This 2009 paper seems to replicate similar results, albeit with a more complex experiment, than Wood (who is quoted on 10). (To prevent any fanciful interpretation, the authors precised: "Our results apply only to the interpretation of classroomscale demonstrations; they do not call into question the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the Earth’s climate or existing models of those phenomena.") So, finally, is there a replication / falsification of Wood's experiment in PR literature? Maybe it has been mentioned previously, but the 1200 posts are discouraging... Thanks for information.
68062. Composer99 at 11:17 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       RW1: Thank you for pointing that out. It sometimes feels like it's not often that climate science skeptics will so clearly call out basic errors on the part of other skeptics.
68063. Tom Curtis at 11:12 AM on 17 December 2011
       Renewables can't provide baseload power
       skept.fr @16, I am having difficulty accepting the genuineness of your criticisms, which seem to be nitpicking and inconsistent: 1) Regarding EREC, that it is an industry body is clearly identified on the second page of the report linked above, so there is no concealment. Nor does it follow from the fact that it is an industry body that their scenario is unrealistic. If you have any specific criticisms of that report, and others relied on in the advanced article, you should make them. 2) Your preference for relying on the IPCC seems very inconsistent, and evaporates when doing so does not support your position (as I have shown on a previous thread). As a case in point, you quote the SSREN 2011 report as saying:

       "In scenarios that stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentrations at a level of less than 440 ppm, the median RE deployment level in 2050 is 248 EJ/yr (139 in 2030), with the highest levels reaching 428 EJ/yr by 2050 (252 in 2030)."

       (My emphasis) The clear import of these words is that scenarios in which Renewable Energy only constitutes 248 EJ/yr can meet a target of 440 ppmv (ie, inside the 450 ppmv guard rail). Yet you have quoted these figures from this report as proof that the 450 ppmv target cannot be met. If you wish to rely on the IPCC, then rely on the IPCC. Given your repeated mantra that we should only rely on the IPCC, your selective reliance shows you are pushing an agenda. 3) It is also noteworthy that you pick out as worthy of mention that the Advanced REvolution scenario was co-produced by EREC and greenpeace. In the first instance, that is incorrect. It was sponsored by Greenpeace and EREC, but it was produced by a number of scholars two of whom where employed by Greenpeace, but the rest of whom where academics. In the second instance you neglect the obvious point that it was accepted as a plausible scenario by the IPCC, including a panel with more members with commercial ties to the fossil fuel industry than those with ties to RE bodies, or activist organizations. In the third instance you neglect the fact that it was independently published in a peer reviewed journal. Your attempt to poison the water against this scenario is a further example of your inconsistency in reliance on the IPCC, which only appears when deployable as a rhetorical device in your arguments. 4) It is a simple fact that all existing power plants will exceed their current design life by 2060 at the latest, and most well before that. It is also a fact that renewable energy can currently supply energy at a cost that is only 2 to 3 times current costs using fossil fuels at most, and arguably current designs cost significantly less. Given that energy use represents a very small part of total GDP, and given the very large expenditures in our society on frivolities, there is no doubt that we have the technical capacity to meet nearly all our energy needs with RE by 2050 by the simple expedient of replacing obsolete plants with RE plants as the reach their designed age limit, and by ensuring all new plants are RE plants. What is lacking is not the ability but the political will.
68064. les at 11:07 AM on 17 December 2011
       Climate Change Denial book now available!
       I don't think it hurts them. Having lost the plot on the science front, they have nothing left but noteriety. Fame is like that. Addictive and done people will do anything to hold onto it.
68065. RW1 at 10:45 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       I have one question for those who think the GHE violates the second law: If downward re-emitted photons cannot travel from the colder atmosphere toward the warmer surface, how do the photons from the Sun travel through the colder upper atmosphere and reach the surface? Have any of you detractors of this ever felt the Sun's rays on your skin when you go outside?
68066. Tristan at 09:09 AM on 17 December 2011
       Is there a case against human-caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 3
       I'm looking for a comprehensive rebuttal of Sherwood Idso's 1998 paper. I heard that there was an issue of Climatic Change which served to do just that, but try as I might I couldn't locate it. Although it's pretty much guaranteed by the literature that his result for CS (0.4C) is wrong, I'm interested in a deconstruction of his methods. His paper consists of 8 simple experiments/analyses. I suspect any of the mods here could do it themselves (in their sleep with their pjs on backwards). Thanks in advance.
       Moderator Response: [muon] You're referring to Idso's CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate change.
68067. skept.fr at 08:14 AM on 17 December 2011
       Renewables can't provide baseload power
       In the "advanced" version of the text, you quote an European Renewable Energy Council (EREC)'s study. But EREC is an industrial lobby, as it is specified on their webite : "The European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) came into existence in the year 2000, as the voice of the European renewable energy industry." You should inform your reader that there is conflict of interest in this case, because the 'EREC' denomination could suggest it is an independent or academic committee. More broadly, it is better to rely on IPCC report : SRREN 2011. First, informations are updated. Second, anyone familiar with energy literature knows that are lot of "scenarios" in publications, but to qualify them as "plausible" as you did for some is a value judgement quite difficult to found. If you look at the figure 9 of the SRREN SPM, you can see the best estimates of Global RE primary energy supply from 164 scenarios. This is a more clear, more large and so more robust information than selective case studies (and this is why, of course, IPCC reports are precious). The report states : "In scenarios that stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentrations at a level of less than 440 ppm, the median RE deployment level in 2050 is 248 EJ/yr (139 in 2030), with the highest levels reaching 428 EJ/yr by 2050 (252 in 2030)." (Note that he most optimistic scenario is co-produced by Greenpeace and EREC, previously mentioned, but some other scenarios used in this report are funded by fossil industry, not all scenario are from academic sources). The inter-quartile range (25th to 75th percentile) of the RE supply in this most optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation (450 ppm target) is 180-320 EJ/y in 2050. Current primary energy production for 7 billon humans is 492 EJ (same source, year 2008). It has doubled from 1972 to 2008, as it can be observed in IEA key stats 2010 and it is expected to grow with demography and socio-economic development in emerging countries. Estimated population for 2050 is 8-10,5 billion persons according to the latest UN Population Division projection. The median-variant scenario, supposed to be the more likely, is 9,2 billion persons in 2050, a growth of 20% from now. So, the conclusion from IPCC SRREN 2011 report is that, for a large majority of energy scenarios, it is unlikely RE will be sufficient to cover all the energy supply/demand in 2050. Beside residual fossil use in the energy mix, these scenarios usually include nuclear and CCS (carbon capture and storage) so as to meet the 450 ppm target. They also rely on various assumptions on energy intensity gain in the coming decades so as to reduce the baseload demand (your first point on efficiency). These conclusions will of course evolve in coming years. As SRREN note : Enhanced scientific and engineering knowledge should lead to performance improvements and cost reductions in RE technologies. Additional knowledge related to RE and its role in GHG emissions reductions remains to be gained in a number of broad areas including: • Future cost and timing of RE deployment; • Realizable technical potential for RE at all geographical scales; • Technical and institutional challenges and costs of integrating diverse RE technologies into energy systems and markets; • Comprehensive assessments of socioeconomic and environmental aspects of RE and other energy technologies; • Opportunities for meeting the needs of developing countries with sustainable RE services; and • Policy, institutional and financial mechanisms to enable cost-effective deployment of RE in a wide variety of contexts. Knowledge about RE and its climate change mitigation potential continues to advance It must be finally noted that expected RE penetration doesn't imply necessarily all costs will decrease, as SRREN recalls : "As the penetration of variable RE sources increases, maintaining system reliability may become more challenging and costly. Having a portfolio of complementary RE technologies is one solution to reduce the risks and costs of RE integration. Other solutions include the development of complementary fl exible generation and the more flexible operation of existing schemes; improved short-term forecasting, system operation and planning tools; electricity demand that can respond in relation to supply availability; energy storage technologies (including storage-based hydropower); and modifi ed institutional arrangements. Electricity network transmission (including interconnections between systems) and/or distribution infrastructure may need to be strengthened and extended, partly because of the geographical distribution and fixed remote locations of many RE resources." As KR noted in #12, units are not systems, so the decarbonization of energy doesn't solely consist to add RE units.
68068. ribwoods at 08:11 AM on 17 December 2011
       Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
       Fred #52, A few month ago, for a different online forum, I examined a slightly earlier version ("More Than 650 ...") of Sen. Inhofe's presentation of that Marc Morano document. I examined just the first 23 scientist quotations given by Inhofe/Morano, and wrote: "What I'm going to do first is concentrate on one single category of elementary error, and show how frequently it appears in this anti-AGW document. The category is: AGW theory strawmen One of the elementary things a competent AGW critic needs to do is to at least correctly understand the AGW theory. I mean, isn't it fairly basic that when one is going to criticize a scientific theory, one ought first to understand what that theory says, and doesn't say? However, over and over and over in anti-AGW blogs I see folks supposing that AGW says "such-and-such", and then attacking that "such-and-such" -- but apparently without understanding that the AGW theory actually does not include the "such-and-such"! This is the rhetorical strawman device in action: Setting up something that is weaker (the "strawman") than the opponent's actual argument, then proceeding to demolish that instead of addressing the opponent's actual position. Now, it's not so unusual to see strawmen erected in great abundance in blog comments by the general public, but one would think that professional scientists would do better at avoiding that and sticking to the actual subject instead of some distortion. Further, one would expect that when a US senator collects statements by scientists, supposedly "debunking" the AGW theory, he would have his staff comb over the statements to be quoted, making sure that each one was a valid criticism, not a strawman attack, before publishing the quotes. But the document released by Inhofe does contain many "strawmen", each of which should not have been presented by someone who actually understood the AGW theory (and wanted to present a valid argument rather than an invalid argument). Here, I'll list some for you, showing how each one refers to an AGW strawman rather than the real, correct AGW theory. The quotes are from the Inhofe document. . . . That makes it 9 whole [strawmen] and 3 partials of 23." Yes, I easily found that half of the quotations that Inhofe/Morano led off with attacked rhetorical strawmen rather than actual AGW theory.
68069. Bob Lacatena at 08:05 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       1197, TOP,

       In the Wood (1909) experiment, there was a small discrepancy in how fast the two boxes heated... So I jumped to the conclusion that if that was so...

       As has been explained, the Wood experiment is flawed. You cannot take it to be a model for anything, or make any inference from it. As far as the particular effect you describe, however, Wood himself recognized that particular problem and corrected for it (emphasis mine):

       When exposed to sunlight the temperature rose gradually to 65 oC., the enclosure covered with the salt plate keeping a little ahead of the other, owing to the fact that it transmitted the longer waves from the sun, which were stopped by the glass. In order to eliminate this action the sunlight was first passed through a glass plate. There was now scarcely a difference of one degree between the temperatures of the two enclosures.

       To clarify, all that happened here was that the glass plate blocked incoming IR, and so that box warmed more slowly. One thing Wood got wrong, though, was that the bulk of the IR that was being blocked was not coming from the sun but rather from greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere (the same IR that you measure when you hold up your hand-held IR thermometer). So at that point it was actually the greenhouse gas effect that was interfering with his ability to prove or disprove the existence of the greenhouse gas effect!
68070. Bob Lacatena at 07:53 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       TOP, G&T is a rambling diatribe of everything they could think of. I am really having a hard time finding any science in it at all. The only true science would be in section 3, but even that is mostly devoted to arguing against flaws in various greenhouse analogies (who cares?) and other things (like, as if anyone gives 2 [your-pick]s, "An Inconvenient Truth"). I had to get to page 47 before it hit any actual science, and then it did what most amateur attempts do, which is to repeat all of known science as if this is a text book, and they must walk the reader through every single foundation concept. Please help me. Find a statement -- a brief, scientific or mathematical statement, not a rambling load of arrogance -- that you believe sufficiently makes the case that the greenhouse gas effect violates the 2^nd law of thermodynamics. Please note that your two quotes from this comment of yours do not represent any sort of argument, but rather just ill-considered whining. There is nothing of substance in the statements. Please identify some scientific or mathematical observation that you believe is demonstrated by G&T and which you are not on your own able to discount or untangle.
68071. TOP at 07:34 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       @1206 Philippe Well the inability to make a reasoned point goes both ways. I haven't seen a reasoned discussion of the points that G&T made regarding the fundamental physics of RGHE, but rather comments about my own less than perfect grasp of the world, the universe and why taxes go up. Perhaps you can address G&T's claim that the concept of radiative balance wrt RGHE is nonsense. (-Snip-). (-Snip-).
       Response:

       [DB] Trolling snipped.

68072. Philippe Chantreau at 06:24 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       TOP: "I am trying real hard to make a reasoned point" I'm not sure about that and even if it is true (one could find several different points you have tried to make, none of which is very impressive in terms of reasoning), that's part of the problem. You believe you have a point to make. I don't see that you have done the work to get to the level of understanding where that would be possible. Engage in serious study and your possible "points to make" will melt like snow under the sunshine of understanding. If I were you, sincere as you claim to be, I'd consider taking a course or two at a nearby college or even online.
68073. TOP at 05:56 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       @1200 pbjamm At some point the title of this blog got changed. Used to be about G&T's paper on the Falsification of the Greenhouse Effect. Same references. It has just been trimmed down to one quote out of that paper.
68074. SirNubwub at 05:51 AM on 17 December 2011
       It hasn't warmed since 1998
       Bob Loblaw Crap...I said "land and air" and i should have said "oceans and air"....sorry.
68075. angliss at 05:27 AM on 17 December 2011
       Is there a case against human-caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 3
       dana1981 (#58): In my opinion, the portions of the summary I quoted indicate that the Douglass et al 2008 authors are calling into question whether or not any tropical tropospheric amplification has occurred since 1979. This implies to me that they're calling into question whether AGW is occurring at all and whether models have any predictive ability. Again, I feel that meets Jim's original criteria. You and Chris clearly disagree. Fair enough. My concern remains, however - given the small number of papers (~60) Jim identified, I'm simply concerned that the criteria were too stringent and kept out a number of what are, IMO, anti-AGW papers. I understand that the line has to be drawn somewhere, and that someone will criticize where it was drawn wherever you draw it. I also understand that some papers will lie atop that line no matter where you draw it. But I think that applying stringent criteria in this case detracts from the conclusions and provides a point of contention that "skeptics" can use to minimize your conclusions. Less stringent criteria would likely still have made the point (that "skeptics" have almost no actual peer-reviewed papers) and yet left those "skeptics" less ground upon which the conclusions could be criticized. Damned if you do, damned if you don't, I guess.
68076. Bob Loblaw at 04:00 AM on 17 December 2011
       It hasn't warmed since 1998
       SirNubWub: By the phrase "global warming has stopped" I mean "the total heat content of the global environment is no longer increasing". OK, so to further discuss this, if you are viewing the deniers positions (I intentionally use denier instead of putting "skeptic" in scare quotes) - choosing one metric (e.g. surface air temperatures) is wrong, because that is not a complete representation of the system. When you say "both land an air", that is still not complete, as it ignores deeper oceans. - there is still a disconnect between the concepts of "total heat content" and the changes in heat content due to atmospheric CO₂ increases. Total heat content depends on more than just CO₂ forcing. It is not unexpected to see total heat content decrease if other forcing factors besides CO₂ push things that way. To pretend that this disproves the warming effect of increasing CO₂ is to ignore the sound science that tells us that other factors do play a role. This is a major inconsistency in the deniers positions: on the one hand, they argue that climate science ignores factors other than CO₂ (they don't); while on the other hand they make an argument that doesn't make sense unless you do ignore other factors. (I think I should write this up and contribute it to the Contradictions page.) To deal with this latter issue (other factors affecting heat content will temporarily obscure the slow change forced by CO₂, you have two common ways of dealing with it: 1) take data over a long enough time that the short-term fluctuations cancel out (that's where the 17+ years argument comes in) 2) account for the short-term effects and remove them from the measurements, so that the long-term trend is easier to see. That were studies like Foster and Rahmstorf (as discussed on Tamino's blog come in.
68077. Rob Honeycutt at 03:35 AM on 17 December 2011
       It hasn't warmed since 1998
       SirNubwub... What you're describing is exactly what "Trenberth's Travesty" is all about. The work Kevin Trenberth does is, basically, doing a full accounting of where the heat energy is going within the climate system. The "travesty" he talks about is the fact that science is still so limited in its ability to track where that heat is going. We have top of atmosphere measurements that tell us the planet is retaining heat, but we primarily look at only one measure that directly relates to us, and that's surface temperature. So, when there is a slowdown in surface temperature, it's not because the Earth is retaining less heat energy, it's because the heat energy is moving around in places where we can't adequately measure it.
68078. DSL at 03:26 AM on 17 December 2011
       Climate Change Denial book now available!
       I believe it is, Les. And judging from the bizarrely overblown response from the denialati stormtroopers, I'd say the association of Tattersall with the theft hurt someone.
68079. muoncounter at 03:01 AM on 17 December 2011
       It hasn't warmed since 1998
       SNW: Thank you for a very reasoned response. There's a lot to learn; we all benefit from informed debate.
68080. muoncounter at 02:45 AM on 17 December 2011
       Galactic cosmic rays: Backing the wrong horse
       Eric, Dragic used DTR because it was something they could quantify and measure. See the comments and quoted section here. It is not that they 'only look for a DTR' a few days after the FD; that's when the DTR change showed up. The unanswered question is why it takes a few days; another example of the weakness of this whole idea.
68081. Bob Lacatena at 02:44 AM on 17 December 2011
       Galactic cosmic rays: Backing the wrong horse
       118, Eric, Sorry, yes, you are correct. My bad.
68082. Tom Curtis at 02:41 AM on 17 December 2011
       Plimer vs Plimer: a one man contradiction
       DB inline @38, as of 1985, Sipple ice dome showed a concentration of 328 ppmv for an ice date of 1891, which corresponds to an air date of 1962 to 1983. As you know, the reason for the difference between ice and air dates is that freshly fallen snow has many interconnecting air pockets which allows fresh air to continue circulating within it. That is why burying yourself in the snow if caught in a blizzard is a survival technique, not an invitation to suffocation. As more layers of snow are laid on top, the layer beneath are gradually compressed until the turn to ice, thus sealing the air pockets from further contact with the open air. At this stage, several decades after the fall of the original snow, a sample of air is preserved for the future. The air pockets within the ice can be dated using C14, or by careful measurements on site to determine the period required for the air pockets to become sealed at that location. Given this, Plimer's deceit regarding the Sipple data is to not acknowledge this well known information (among those who study climate change) and to treat the ice data as the air date. In contrast to this typical misdirection, his claim about Mauna Loa is bizarre. In 1960 the annual mean CO2 concentration was 316.91 ppmv, 57 ppmv more than he claims. The lowest monthly record in 1960 was 313.84 ppmv. His technique of misdirection is apparent in his article several times. His long discussion of Arctic sea ice extents in the Holocene Climactic Optimum completely fails to mention the high arctic summer insolation of that time. At a later point he mentions refrozen melt water discovered at the base of the East Antarctic ice sheet, and manages to suggest that it was recent melt water rather than melt water from millions of years ago (as it actually is, if memory serves). A man who deliberately targets these deceits at children is utterly contemptible, IMO.
       Response:

       [DB] "Sipple ice dome showed a concentration of 328 ppmv for an ice date of 1891"

       Tom you are very correct.  My earlier statement lacked precision and thus accuracy.  My intended reference was that of any interglacial previous to the one we are in now.  Apologies.

68083. SirNubwub at 02:40 AM on 17 December 2011
       It hasn't warmed since 1998
       134 Sphaerica Yes, I should have included the 17 year thing. That's fine. I just wanted to know what would qualify as an end (or pause) of warming. 135.Rob Honeycutt I am not discussing the probabilities of things or the validity of the foundational science. I am just wondering what I need to see in the data for the skeptics to have a point when they say "warming has ended". 136 Bob Loblaw By the phrase "global warming has stopped" I mean "the total heat content of the global environment is no longer increasing". 137 scaddenp Thank you for the graph. I will look at the paper. everyone: I am not posting any comments or questions to this website in order to convince anyone of anything. I just want to get a better understanding of the proper response to many of the skeptic's positions. So, I have learned that the last decade's supposed pause in rising temperatures really isn't a pause. There is still a trend going up. The heat content of the environment is still going up. In order for the skeptics to be able to say "see, it stopped" we would have to see steady temperatures in both land and air for at least 17 years. All of this is fine. I don't have any arguments with any of it. I will move on to learn more about other topics on the website.
68084. Eric (skeptic) at 02:38 AM on 17 December 2011
       Galactic cosmic rays: Backing the wrong horse
       Spharica, that is true, but not for the Dragic study because it only look for a DTR response a few days after the cosmic ray event.
68085. Bob Lacatena at 02:09 AM on 17 December 2011
       Galactic cosmic rays: Backing the wrong horse
       116, Eric, DTR is also strongly influenced by other GHGs, so you have a confounding factor involved.
68086. Eric (skeptic) at 02:02 AM on 17 December 2011
       Galactic cosmic rays: Backing the wrong horse
       muoncounter, Dr. Laken kindly responded to more of my questions and suggests caution in reading a lot into long term changes in GCR flux, too many unknowns in the relationship to clouds over those timescales. He also cautioned on Dragic's selection of GCR events. In the Lakin paper they selected using TSI criteria that were designed to preclude bias in event selection. Dr Laken also questioned the use of Diurnal Temperature Range rather than direct cloud measurements, and he might have a point there, but personally I'm not sure what is wrong with DTR which is a localized climatological response.
68087. CBDunkerson at 01:20 AM on 17 December 2011
       Plimer vs Plimer: a one man contradiction
       Catamon, actually it is worse than you think... the value he cites for Mauna Loa is bogus too.
68088. catamon at 01:15 AM on 17 December 2011
       Plimer vs Plimer: a one man contradiction
       This Plimer guy is a bit of a berk really. There was an article by him the the Australian today: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/glacial-chill-ebbs-and-flows/story-e6frg6z6-1226224280587 In it he states: "Antarctic ice core (Siple) shows that there were 330 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the air in 1900; Mauna Loa Hawaiian measurements in 1960 show that the air then had 260ppm carbon dioxide. Either the ice core data is wrong, the Hawaiian carbon dioxide measurements are wrong, or the atmospheric carbon dioxide content was decreasing during a period of industrialisation." I looked up info on the CO2 record from that core: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/siple.html http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/siple-gr.gif Shows CO2 in 1900 @ 296 ppm approx. So, look to his source and he seems to be misquoting it.
       Response:

       [DB] "Antarctic ice core (Siple) shows that there were 330 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the air in 1900"

       The maximum CO2 concentration levels from any ice core record is 298.7 ppm.  Anyone who says otherwise will need to provide a linked citation to show that they are not simply making things up.  FYI.

       ---

       Edit:

       Per correction provided by the sage Tom Curtis below, my statement above lacked precision and thus accuracy.  My intended reference was that of any interglacial previous to the one we are in now.  Apologies.

68089. Bob Lacatena at 01:05 AM on 17 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       1201, RW1,

       Does anyone actually think that a re-emitted photon cannot travel from the colder atmosphere toward the warmer surface?

       Believe it or not, yes. Read the comments to see not only how many people believe it, but how adamant they are in sticking to their misconceptions in post after laborious post. They refuse to accept that there may be things that they misunderstand, and that they would be better served trying honestly and faithfully to find the flaws in their own understanding rather than to assume that they are correct and everyone else is wrong — including thousands and thousands of scientists and the half a dozen people here who are simply trying to help them to get things straight. Too, while the 2^nd Law concepts seem basic and inarguable to you and I, climate science is rife with people who perhaps get past that hurdle, but at one point or another develop a disconnect and freeze right there, unable to get past it by learning the science well enough to see the flaws in their reasoning, correct them, and thus to understand everything far, far better and to be able to move on to the next concept. It's a curious human trait that allows such people to possess more than their fair share of intelligence and education and yet be unable to properly apply it because of some quirk of cognitive dissonance.
68090. CBDunkerson at 23:44 PM on 16 December 2011
       The End of the Hothouse
       Norman, on the issue of taking actions to deal with sea level rise... consider the possibility, I know it may seem remote, that some people might argue that no action need be taken because sea levels aren't really rising, or will rise so slowly that there will be plenty of time to act. Sure, if we made every effort to deal with the problems caused by sea level rise we could probably do so. But, in my hypothetical, there are these people who deny it is happening and oppose any action to address it. If you want to call such people "really stupid" and deserving of extinction, well I think that's a bit harsh, but I won't try to dissuade you from your opinion.
68091. MarkR at 23:00 PM on 16 December 2011
       The End of the Hothouse
       1. Doc Snow: hysteresis sounds pretty likely. We expect heating or cooling and subsequent ice sheet changes to respond to TOTAL heating. Cooling down, we have a lower albedo because there's no ice. This should mean more heating from the Sun, so you need to reduce CO2 further to get enough cooling to trigger ice sheet formation. When you have an ice sheet, then higher albedo = more cooling = you need more CO2 to trigger the end of the ice sheet. But when it comes, the heating is faster. Of course, that's just local albedo feedback. I suspect the answer is lots more complicated and might even be completely different!
68092. John Mason at 21:21 PM on 16 December 2011
       The End of the Hothouse
       Skywatcher, indeed: Meltwater pulse 1A shows us what is possible: 3.3m/century or ~ ten times the current rate, already projected to increase through the current century under a BAU scenario. Cheers - John
68093. John Mason at 21:15 PM on 16 December 2011
       The End of the Hothouse
       Doc Snow, indeed there may be a hysteresis factor especially WRT the East Antarctica ice-sheet; however there are already signs that the West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula ice is in trouble. A reasonable analogy is switching off and opening a deep-freeze: for a while nothing much happens, then a slow melt starts, it speeds up and all of a sudden everything is defrosted! Doug H: "How robust is that statement? I can imagine the cries of the deniers saying that ignoring the data from the high latitudes is cherry-picking. Am I right in assuming that the high-latitude data gives indeterminate results, rather than being emphatically in the 'wrong' direction?" That has certainly been a response in some quarters, but one which ignores how proxies are developed: quite crude to begin with when discovered, they are refined over time as weaknesses are identified and addressed. The high-latitude samples have problems WRT environmental conditions, especially nutrient levels: thus they give results inconsistent with other proxies and modelling. In time, these problems themselves may be ironed-out. However, if a problem is identified in a sampling area that introduces a skew, then until the problem is rectified that area is best left out, because of the "garbage in, garbage out" issue. Better to drive a vehicle with a four-cylinder engine in which all is well than to drive a V8 with worn-out piston-rings in three of the cylinders! Cheers - John
68094. les at 20:59 PM on 16 December 2011
       Climate Change Denial book now available!
       72 - tallbloke Computers Seized in Cyber-Thief Investigation

       Thieves who broke into Unviersity of East Anglia computers in 2009... On Wednesday, detectives from Norfolk Constabulary entered the home of Roger Tattersall, who writes a climate sceptic blog under the pseudonym TallBloke, and took away two laptops and a broadband router

       is that you?
68095. Philippe Chantreau at 17:42 PM on 16 December 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       RW1, you have a lot of posts on this thread and are no less culpable for its length that anyone else who has posted on it. The thread has seen little else than trolling and obfuscation, the worst example being that of Damorbel (see post #915, p. 19). Fred Staples and TOP's latest examples are not much better on substance. No need to add to it.
68096. skywatcher at 16:01 PM on 16 December 2011
       The End of the Hothouse
       Norman, who said anything about reducing CO2 levels that low? Are you also aware of the amount that ice loss is accelerating? See the relevant articles at SkS. Entire, very large, ice sheets melted within ~<10,000 years at the end of the last glacial period. Within 2-3000 years between 11,000 and 8,000 years ago sea level rose ~60m. Meltwater Pulse 1A saw a rise of 20m in 500 years. What this shows is that large sea level rises in short periods of time are possible, given the right forcing and conditions, and that given appropriate forcing, deglaciation does not take over 100,000 years. Note that prior to Meltwater Pulse 1A, sea levels rose 20m in 6000 years, or ~3.3mm/yr. Coincidentally that's close to the rate sea level is rising today. It looks like abruptly around 15ka, sea levels began to rise rapidly. I'm not suggesting this will happen to Greenland or the WAIS, but rapid deglaciation and sea level rises have precedents, quite apart from the accelerations we observe today. source: globalwarmingart
68097. Composer99 at 15:49 PM on 16 December 2011
       The End of the Hothouse
       Norman: Since the pre-industrial concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere during the Holocene interglacial was approx. 280 ppm, suggesting we are "saving" the ecosystems by burning fossil fuels and preventing CO2 concentrations from falling below 150 ppm is IMO complete nonsense. All: You might find this press conference from this year's AGU fall meeting of interest (hat tip to the comment threads at Deltoid where someone posted it). It's topical to this thread.
68098. KR at 15:42 PM on 16 December 2011
       Climate sensitivity is low
       A question to all - is it really necessary to rehash the previous discussion on the Lindzen and Choi thread, where RW1 spent considerable time pushing the same hypotheses, and where he was pointed at the same facts that he's being pointed at (and ignoring) now? RW1 - the same objections to your unbased claims still hold. What's the term? Debunked a thousand times (DATT)? Readers - Take a look at the Lindzen and Choi "Working out climate sensitivity from satellite measurements" thread if you have any questions about this discussion. Personally, I don't have the patience to discuss this again, as RW1 has stated: "I appreciate that you seem to be interested in helping me, but I'm not really interested in being helped per say. I'm a staunch skeptic of AGW, so my purpose here is to present contradictory evidence and logic that disputes the theory. That's what I'm doing." Those are not the words of someone willing to discuss the data, the facts. Rather, the words of someone who just wants to argue. DNFTT - Do Not Feed The Troll.
       Response:

       [DB] "What's the term? Debunked a thousand times (DATT)?"

       Very close.  PRATT - Point Refuted A Thousand Times.  Silver Star to you, circle gets the square.

       Edit:

       A large number of off-topic comments by RW1 and responses to him were deleted after this, as they belonged more properly on the 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory thread (or others) and were thus off-topic here.

68099. Rob Painting at 15:20 PM on 16 December 2011
       Coral atolls grow as sea levels rise
       I don't see how local people on Pacific atolls have any effect on the rate of worldwide fossil fuel-burning. And I recollect seeing somewhere that many of the atolls that Webb & Kench (2009) looked at were actually uninhabited unpinned islets. Therefore, of course they'll shift around over time. One of the reasons they are uninhabited is that they're unstable.
68100. muoncounter at 15:17 PM on 16 December 2011
       The End of the Hothouse
       Norman#8 "This rate would increase with warming but at this current rate it would take... " If you expect ice loss rate to increase, why do you even mention this extrapolation of the current rate? And if ice loss increases, why do you expect SLR to have the same rate? Move cities? Stop sea water leakage? Are you aware that salt water inundation is already doing damage? And who is Ed Ring?

Prev  1354  1355  1356  1357  1358  1359  1360  1361  1362  1363  1364  1365  1366  1367  1368  1369  Next