Arguments
Recent Comments
Prev 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 Next
Comments 7251 to 7300:
-
Doug Bostrom at 05:59 AM on 30 June 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
JW, the answer to your question is in plain sight in the article, in numerous places:
"A June 15 article in The New York Times..."
"A May 2020 report published by the EPA’s Office of Inspector General..."
"Under significant pressure from the White House, the acting head of NOAA, Neil Jacobs, subsequently issued an unsigned statement chastising the Alabama NWS scientists and backing Trump’s false claim. This behavior by the agency leadership violated principles in NOAA’s scientific integrity policy."
Et al. I won't reproduce the entire article above down here in comments— it makes a little more sense for you to read it.
-
JWRebel at 23:12 PM on 29 June 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
The COVID-19 pandemic tragically highlights the dire and immediate threats to public health that can result when the culture of scientific integrity at research institutions is ignored or fails.
An example of compromised institutions would be in order. I don't regard this as trivially obvious.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 03:51 AM on 29 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
The problem is not Facebook. The problem is competition for popularity and profit.
The pursuit of popularity and profit drives the development of many understandably harmfully incorrect things, and it drives the resistance to correction of those incorrect things.
Responsible Governing is the solution, but keeping popularity and profit from influencing Governing is very challenging.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 02:38 AM on 29 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
People who want to be helpful should keep the Big Picture in mind.
The Big Picture is the need for Humanity to have a lasting and improving future. And that requires maintaining the system that humans developed within - the environment and the robust diversity of life constrained by the sustainability of the limits of this amazing planet (or any locations humanity spreads to). That will require expanding awareness and improving understanding to help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, all of them. And that will require significant corrections of many things that modern-day humans have developed a liking for benefiting from, especially correcting the socioeconomic-political systems that have developed.
Achieving many of the SDGs is made harder by rapid human caused climate change. So limiting the total human caused climate change is one of the most important things for humanity to work on. That leads to the understanding that the lack of responsible correction by the highest consuming and impacting portion of the global population, particularly through the past 30 years, has created the daunting current day challenge of limiting the total climate change impact to less a maximum of 2.0 C (an understandably harmful level of impact) with a need to try to limit it to 1.5 C (also a harmful, but far less harmful, level of impact).
I would add that after succeeding in achieving the upper limit of climate change impact (hopefully closer to 1.5 C), humanity needs to rapidly reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 350 ppm.
It is possible, even highly likely, that many wealthy powerful people who have been resisting the required corrections understand that making the problem worse, delaying the corrections, would increase popular support for resistance to the increasingly harsher required corrections. The lack of significant penalties for people like that, a lack of responsible Governing of those who will not responsibly Self-Govern, is a developed systemic problem that needs to be corrected. The undeserving among the Perceived Superiors must be identified and corrected. That will require Peers to correct their harmfully incorrect Peers. An alternative is a Rebellion by the lower status, and that is not something to look forward to.
Limiting the consumption and impacts of the most consuming and highest negative-impacting portion of the population, and getting every member of the most fortunate portion of the population to lead the development of truly sustainable ways to live well, is a very effective path to a lasting improving future for humanity. It is potentially the most effective way and may be the only path to a better future for humanity.
The sum of the impacts of each individual is the math that needs to be done.
Studies in ethical philosophy such as Utilitarianism identify the problem of a single very high consuming and impacting person ruining things for everyone else while the overall impression of the total, excluding any consideration of inequity and injustice, looks good. One bad apple can tempt others to join them in personally benefiting in unsustainable and harmful ways.
What has developed today is: Over-population, Over-Consumption, and Harmful Unsustainable Activities that are popular and profitable. And each of those can be understood to be the result of Selfish people pursuing benefits in harmful, unjust and inequitable ways. And those unjust inequitable developments include developing the systems, including laws and their application, that produce the harmful results and resist correction.
The Systems that have developed need to be corrected to Equitably and Justifiably: Reduce the total global population, reduce the total consumption, and eliminate activity that does harm to Others (end actions that are unjust, and end systemic inequity). That will require the Einstein Quote at the end of my comment @3 and the extension of it in my comment @5.In addition to Thomas Piketty's book "Capital and Ideology" (mentioned in my comment @5), "The Age of Sustainable Development" by Jeffrey D. Sachs (the presentation of the developed understanding that is the basis for the Sustainable Development Goals) is another comprehensive presentation of the issue (population, consumption, harm done, inequity, injustice). And there are many well investigated Social Science books presenting the ways that story-telling and story-believing combine to establish Ideological explanations for the harmful inequity of the system the stories are made-up to justify.The required helpful pursuit is Developing Sustainable Improvements for Humanity through expanded awareness and improved understanding to limit harm being done. Any other activity is irrelevant, and potentially harmful.The current reality is very unsustainable. And it was harmfully over-developed in ways contrary to developed understanding of the correct direction for development. Major corrections of the developed current day reality, especially corrections of the developed systems and the stories made-up to excuse their inequity, injustices and harmfulness, will be required.And the correction of the current day reality will require many of the more fortunate people to give up many of their developed perceptions of Superior Standard of Living relative to Others. It is likely impossible to maintain the developed enjoyments of the higher consuming higher impacting portion of the current day population.I agree that there will be many who will not willingly reduce their consumption or impacts, will not wish to pursue setting the example of Sustainable Development and Sustainable Corrections. What is undeniable is that the solution will require those people who will not responsibly self-govern and self-correct to be externally governed and corrected. That is ultimately what humanity requires in order to have an Improving Lasting Future. -
nigelj at 10:28 AM on 28 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Slarty Bartfast@30
Slarty says "The only mistakes I made were these... " (he lists two mistakes and tries to make excuses for them.)
But hes made plenty of other mistakes. Here are just a couple of others:
Slarty @11, "By the way, thanks for pointing out the error in the thermal expansion coefficient. I used the wrong one by mistake"
Slarty @12 "But this doesn't change my overall point, that sea level rise is miniscule and unmeasurable" This is clearly an error, no matter what way you look at it, as pointed out several times eg me @14.
Slarty @12 "What I did say about the Arctic is that we don't know what the temperature trend is because there are no long term weather stations within 1000 km of the North Pole, and there never have been."... "You need 50 years to establish a climate trend"
I pointed out @16 we have at least 60 years of data over the open arctic. And I would add saying you need 50 years of climate data is only Slartys opinion. Every source I've read says 30 years is sufficient, for example the experts on realclimate.org.
Slartys website blog claimed that climate change is caused by waste heat and quoted New Zealand as evidence where population density and industrial output is low and our glaciers haven't shrunk very much. I pointed out research @22 showing our glaciers have shrunk a great deal at 33% since the 1970s. Anyway there will be some difference between hemispheres because the northern hemisphere is warming faster due to a preponderance of land mass.
Own you mistakes Slarty. I suspect you have a pre determined conclusion, and when you work like that you tend to twist things to suit the conclusion and mistakes multiply. Nothing personal: you are well educated and know more statistics than me, but I have a razor sharp ability to recognise nonsense in almost any field of study.
-
nigelj at 07:54 AM on 28 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
walschuler @13
I used to work in building design, and I agree you can get some big energy efficiencies especially if you go full passive solar. The problem is persuading people to bear the initial capital costs when they often have other objectives. For this reason mitigating the climate problem and other environmental problems requires constantly promoting a wide range of solutions, including energy efficiency, wasting less, having fewer children etcetera. Theres no magic bullet once you face the realities of human nature.
I suspect there is little difference long term between nuclear power and renewables, in terms of clean energy and ultimate costs, but nuclear power is not politically popular and the new smaller modular reactors are very expensive, and this could take a fair while to change, so renewables are proving more popular with generating companies and the public.
Getting the size of population down is an obvious good solution, but it probably wont happen quickly because of the risk of too many older dependent people as you mentioned. But that said, its interesting that in a couple of countries in Europe where population size has fallen and there are fewer young people and a bulge of dependent elderly, governments have tried to incentivise people to have more children, but this hasn't worked! Once the culture swings towards smaller families it seems to get quite popular.
-
nigelj at 07:26 AM on 28 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
It's important to cut per capita consumption, but trying to mitigate the impacts of 10 billion people even at lower levels of consumption will be a nightmare, so its equally important to cut the size of global population. Various studies suggest 2 - 5 billion is optimal. There are downsides to smaller population but not huge ones.
This has long been realised, for example in the limits to growth report published in 1972. You can use the associated world 3 interactive model as below. Just click on simulate.
insightmaker.com/insight/1954/The-World3-Model-A-Detailed-World-Forecaster
You wont get perfect sustainability because nothing lasts forever, including this solar system. You can only aim to improve sustainability and I do believe we can do a much better job than currently.
-
walschuler at 06:44 AM on 28 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
Several comments. First the Kaya equation related to the carbon problem looks in form just like the famous Drake equation for the number of radio civilizations in the galaxy. Like the latter it clearly states relevant factors making it easy to see and talk about what counts.
Second, the discussion here and in many other places under values energy conservation. I spent a decade back in the 70s and 80s running an energy consulting firm that worked on both conservation and renewables for single family and multifamily dwellings, school campuses, smalland large commercial buildings and towns. In all cases conservation measures were straightforward to find and paid off quickly, often in from 1 to 5 years. In that range they had rates of return from 20% up to 100%, better than any other type of investment at comparable levels of risk. Doing them first cut the size requirements for renewables both for collection and storage to achieve a given level of load and energy share for them.
We should be converting to renewables but doing conservation ahead of or at the same time we do that.
The movie supports nuclear as a serious alternative. Though waste storage may be solvable either by burialor reprocessing, neither is settled and the problems with that plus fissionable materials diversion and weapons should rule out any continued expansion, though we might want a new safer generation of reactors to replace the old ones as they wear out. We ought to require air cooling to get their sites away from water bodies, especially near ocean coastlines.
We do need to control population and should limit ourselves to 1 child per parent, 2 per couple. The PRC tried this and found it difficult to have enough younger working people to carry the needs of the increase in numbers elderly retired people, the latter due to improvements in their health. This can be planned for, and does not have to be instituted all at once. However, we are not in possession of studies that clearly outline how to structure an economy with enough good jobs in a future with slowly declining population. As things are now, the US generally under produces jobs, especially good jobs. Mechanization and AI add further threats to jobs which need addressing.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 04:33 AM on 28 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
Wol @11,
The total population number is not the problem. The total impact of the population is the problem.
Review the other comments, not just mine, to understand why. Each individual's action add up to become the future. Any form of resistance to accepting that understanding is part the problem.
The unavoidable, but often attempted to be evaded, understanding is that it is harmful and unacceptable for any portion of the population to pursue personal benefits in unsustainable ways, especially if their actions are harmful to Others, and Others include all Future Generations. That leads to the clear understanding that the individuals living in ways that have higher consumption and related impacts are the portion of the population needing to correct how they live first and most significantly. It also leads to understanding that the most powerful and fortunate in the global population are required to lead the corrections, including helping the least fortunate who are the only portion of the population who can be excused for improving their ways of living with unsustainable harmful actions.
The most fortunate need to set the example of how to live Sustainably and help the less fortunate live better with the least amount of unsustainable harmful activity as possible as they develop to live like the more fortunate. That understanding is the basis for the Kyoto Protocol. So it is not a New Idea. And the fact that it is so obvious and has been so for decades means that there are many people today in the more fortunate portion of the population who are very undeserving of their Perceptions of Superiority relative to Others (exactly the point that Black Lives Matter promoters have been exposing for decades ... about a similarly harmfully undeserving portion of the population (benefiting from harmful systemic developments, and resisting the corrections that would reduce their personal perception of Superiority relative to Others.
What is tragic is the way that Planet of the Humans has pitted people who have a common desire to help develop sustainable improvements for Humanity against each Other, with each side in some ways defending and excusing the harmfully unacceptable developed ways of living of the more fortunate portion of the Global Population. It is as harmful and incorrect to claim that 'Renewable energy can be developed in ways that do not require any reduction of Standards of Living for the most fortunate' as it is to claim that 'Population reduction and reduced energy use will allow fossil fuel use to be sustainable'.
The pursuit of expanded awareness and improved understanding to help achieve and improve on things like the Sustainable Development Goals is the only path to a better future for humanity. Reviewing the SDGs can show how they already include Good Guidance regarding major actions like COVID-19 response, Climate Impact response, and Social Injustice and Inequity response.
-
Bob Loblaw at 03:34 AM on 28 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
No, Slarty, you've made lots of errors. You just don't seem to be willing or able to face them.
I"ll just point out one more, in comment 30. You say:
That does not change with the length of the series.
Focus on your own words: "the series". One hundred years of temperature data (local, global, whatever) is not, I repeat not, a random sample of temperatures from a constant distribution. It is a time series.
The statistics of a climate temperature time series are not constant over the period of the series. There is a daily cycle. There is an annual cycle. There are systematic variations due to factors such as El Nino, solar output (11 and 22-year cycles, and perhaps some longer), atmospheric aerosols, and other physical factors (CO2 amongst them) that cause variations in temperature.
Those variations can cause changes in the mean. Those variations can cause changes in the spread (SD or other measures).
Any collection of temperatures values that form a continuous subset of the complete record (a month, a year, a decade) represents a time series that can - no, will - have a different mean and (possibly) SD from the complete series. This is not because of random sampling difference - this is because of physics.
Within that shorter period, adjacent measurements (two months in a row, two years in a row, etc.) will exhibit autocorrelation. They are not independent. They are not random samples.
Everything you are doing seems to be in complete ignorance of the fact that elementary statistics of random sampling is not enough for examining time series. You can end that ignorance through learning. But first you have to accept that you still have a lot to learn.
Here is a hint: any statistical test that you do, that will return exactly the same result if you randomly re-ordered the data (i.e. you arrange them in some order that ignores the time variable), is ignoring the time-series aspect of the data.
You have it fixed in your mind that there is no change in the time series. That is implicit in the analysis that you do, even if you do not realize it. Concluding, on the basis of your analysis, that temperature is not changing, is not a "conclusion", it is an assumption you started with.
You've assumed your conclusion.
-
CD at 22:21 PM on 27 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
The only mistakes I made were these:
@27 "You only reduce the SD by repeating the same measurement and averaging them, not by increasing the number of data points."
Even that is not true. What I meant was, multiple measurements result in a regression to the mean. The SD will be the same for sufficiently large N irrespective of its value. For a temperature series the SD is a measure of the spread of the data about the mean. That does not change with the length of the series.
@26 : Yes the 95% is 4-sigma not 6-sigma. Thank you all for spotting it. But that still results in fluctuations of up to 0.7 °C minimum. These are still comparable to what is being claimed by climate scientists. It is not trivial. That is the point.
-
SirCharles at 21:37 PM on 27 June 2020A grand solar minimum could trigger another ice age
Peter Hadfield AKA potholer54 is at it again:
Are we headed for a Grand Solar Minimum?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjgCaF9BGUo -
Eclectic at 11:09 AM on 27 June 2020It's only a few degrees
Jasper @3 , another take :-
In a heavily populated world, the food supply is vulnerable. The staple food crops are rice, wheat, maize. Plant breeding and GMO can produce some benefit in "toughening" these species against higher temperatures ~ but it is uncertain how far this can be improved [maize yield is especially damaged by prolonged hot spells].
Even a small rise in average temperature produces a disproportionate increase in hot spells (frequency, peak, and duration). Add to that, the increased regional occurrence of droughts and/or floods affecting crops.
And infrastructure and poor quality soil problems will make it difficult to simply move croplands to newly-warm territory in Siberia and nothern Canada.
Seafood is also a vulnerability, from the [CO2 caused] rising acidity in oceans affecting the shells of planktonic creatures (which provide a large part of the "base of the pyramid" supporting our fish stocks).
Then there is the political problem of "climate refugees". Already we have pre-existing tensions / resentments / disruptions just from the 26 million international political/economic refugees (and also from the much larger number of "internally-displaced" refugees.)
The most recent and accurate satellite estimate of coastal elevations does indicate that a 1 meter average rise in seal level would displace approx 200 million people. With the storm surges and salination of low-lying farmlands, the result is that many of those people will become "climate refugees" well before the average rise of 1 meter is attained. (That may be 100 - 150 years away ~ or perhaps distinctly earlier.)
The other big increase in climate refugees would come from the near-equatorial regions of the world, as higher/longer hot spells make "outdoor work" more difficult for part of the year. (Would you call them climate refugees or economic refugees?)
Many nations already have more than enough internal social problems arising from us/them types of racial or religious or cultural differences. The addition of large numbers of "foreign" climate refugees would multiply that social disruption !
Add to all this, some further uncertainties about climate effects on "non-staple" foodcrops & insect predation . . . and in total we have a great deal of danger facing us from even 1 more degree of warming. (And the global warming already occurred has locked-in more sea evel rise even if temperature rise halts immediately.)
-
Wol at 10:54 AM on 27 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
>>But the Kaya Identity illustrates why halting or even reversing that growth cannot be the answer to achieving zero emissions.<<
Of course, put like that, it is correct.
But total population numbers are the problem however one tries to argue otherwise. Being simplistic, zero human population = natural carbon cycle: 100Bn population = calamity even with zero carbon emissions, due to waste, environmental degradation, "rats in a cage" effect and so on. Somewhere in between is a sweet spot where, with net zero emissions, life is tolerable.
My opinion is that population is even now well past a sustainable level for many reasons: CO2 is but one of the factors.
-
David Kirtley at 07:08 AM on 27 June 2020It's only a few degrees
Jasper @3, I always like to point out the difference between our climate today and the climate during the height of glacial periods in past "ice ages"...that difference is only 4-5°C. The cartoonist XKCD calls this 1 "Ice Age Unit". He has another cartoon showing Earth's history from now back to this last glacial maximum.
A few degrees may not be a big deal weather-wise, but for climate it is a very big deal.
-
Doug Bostrom at 06:20 AM on 27 June 2020Shining a spotlight on translations and our translator teams
Hats off to our translators!
-
Daniel Bailey at 05:54 AM on 27 June 2020It's only a few degrees
Jasper, NASA took a look at that. Part of what they found is that the crops we grow to support our civilization are evolved for a narrow range of temperatures and are currently near their thermal limit.
NASA also more recently took a deeper-dive into that subject, with the interactive results present in 2 parts:
-
Jasper at 03:57 AM on 27 June 2020It's only a few degrees
I am a teacher and many students of mine say that because it is a few degrees it does not matter. The change between summer and winter is much bigger.
I get that a few degrees make a huge difference. I don't fully understand why a few degrees matter so much. Could somebody help me with this, so I can better explain it to my students?
Thanks a lot.
-
michael sweet at 22:46 PM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
CBDunkerson,
You appear to be saying that technologies must be in place before we can start to implement them.
You listed what you apparently thought were the hardest problems to solve. I provided solutions to them using existing technology. Yes, if you do not count the climate, pollution and health costs than fossil fuels are cheaper than electrofuels. So what?
Many fossil fuels remain in place because they get so many government subsidies. In the USA several nuclear plants have been given hundreds of millions of dollars just to stay open. Fossil companies receive hundreds of billions of subsidies per year. Laws to require more efficient buildings, which save consumers money, are blocked. In Florida, where I live, it is difficult to install solar power on my roof because utilities oppose it.
As you point out, renewable energy is the cheapest energy. That is resulting in more renewable energy being built. If nations support renewable energy strongly not only they start to address the climate crisis but they will save money. Nations like Germany helped advance renewable energy when it was more expensive and showed the way.
Laws requiring more renewable energy will mean cheaper renewable energy will be installed faster. Current policy in Washington to remove environmental protections and allow more wasteful fossil fuels do not help. Currently wind and solar installations in the USA are forced to install uneconomic storage which slows implementation but makes fossil fuels more competitive. If laws are changed to make fossil fuels pay for the damage they do than renewable energy will be installed much faster.
-
Ben Rose at 22:43 PM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
I think your analysis is somewhat simplistic. Net zero emissions means carbon emissions not above that which is being taken up by Earth's ecosystems I.e. it is about 1.5 tCO2e per per person on the planet, or about what some African nations where people don't have cars emit. In the the US and Australia, personal carbon emissions average about 11-12 t per head and total emissions 15-20 t per head, so we've a long way to go. 100% renewable electricity is a necessary start but there are many other things to be done, including as Moore says changing and reducing our consumption habits. About half of our emissions are embodied in food, housing, cars and other goods, so in addition to consuming less and differently, all these production processes have to change. For a detailed explanation of this see my website http://cleanenergymodelling.com.au/. You can do your own carbon footprint - downloadGHG-Energy Calc -and see detailed explanation by downloading the documents on at https://cleanenergymodelling.com.au/decarbonize/ (all are 10 second downloads).
-
HamzaAzam at 21:40 PM on 26 June 2020Heatwaves have happened before
> If we contine to rely heavily on fossil fuels
There is a spelling error here. Would love if it was fixed. Thank you.
Moderator Response:[DB] Typo's fixed. Thank you for bringing this to our attention!
-
CBDunkerson at 21:07 PM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
michael sweet, to me that just seems like another way of saying that the technologies aren't viable right now.
The growth of renewable power to replace fossil fuels has very little to do with "will" and everything to do with economics. They are succeeding because they are more cost effective.
So long as GHG emitting methods of performing some activities are cheaper than non-emitting options it is very unlikely that we will switch.
-
MA Rodger at 20:23 PM on 26 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Slarty Bartfast @26,
You are a glutton for making yoursef look foolish.The BEST graphic does say the red trace is the 5-year rolling average. There is no reason to repeat that message. Now had you read my comment @21 properly, you would note that your methods are not properly explained for me. That deficiency would be something you could have put right rather than your misplaced lecturing. And I hope my explanation of what I did is properly explained @21. If it is not, you should have said.
So let us use that raw BEST data (which is actually an error) but without the detrending I employed @21.
If the decadal average values are calculated, they should yield a list like this (labelled by final year):-1873 ... ... +0.0307°C
1883 ... ... -0.0919°C
1893 ... ... -0.2841°C
1903 ... ... -0.3403°C
1913 ... ... -0.2466°C
1923 ... ... -0.0231°C
1933 ... ... -0.2009°C
1943 ... ... -0.1486°C
1953 ... ... -0.0967°C
1963 ... ... +0.1220°C
1973 ... ... +0.1539°C
1983 ... ... -0.0482°C
1993 ... ... +0.0990°C
2003 ... ... +0.0077°C
2013 ... ... +0.0130°CThe final decade is a few months short. Including it the SD=0.145°C.
I have no idea how you manage to obtain the SD values you quote. I am using the raw data from BEST's station 157045. If this is not what you are using to obtain your decadal SD=0.28°C, perhaps you could provide a link to the data.Your second lesson on how to read an annotated graph are a bit wasted. Why would the Green line be anything other than what the graphic says it is? (And it is of course the data that determines flatness, not some green horizontal line!!!)
Ditto your lessons on how not to calculate seasonal, annual, decadal etc SDs from monthly data. Mind, the results I obtained with the detrending described @21 do show SD reducing by 1/N (with the exception of the one I happened to check and that did happen to conform to 1/√N).And concerning another of your blunderful statements @26.
Maybe where you come from it's different but where I come from the values of a normal distribition looks like this:-
The table shows that the SD that includes 95% (so 2 x 0.4975) is SD=+/-2.81. At SD=/-3.0, the percentage is 99.73% (so 2 x 0.4987).
And while you are correct to say that (in analogy) if you play the lottery long enough, you ticket will eventually win the lottery (although over timespans of millions of years for standard weekly lotteries, not a single millenium for a centenial lottery). Yet this is not what you propose. You suggest it is "probable" when, if you buy a raffle ticket one week (one of 769 sold) and then again the next week, that you will win both times. That 'probability' is actually one chance in 769 x 769 = 1:591,361. (So not quite what I said @21 where, in my haste, I pulled the punch with a little arithmetical error of my own.)Finally Slarty Bartfast, Bob Loblaw @28 is correct. The nature of your mistakes and errors are "intriguing".
-
JWRebel at 13:31 PM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
If we were to reformulate the Kaya identity in terms of resistance to decrease instead of absolute carbon emissions, multiplying each term by some variable R for resistance (technical + political possibility + costs), I think we could quite easily prove that any change to F in the rightmost terms will be far greater than moving to the term at the left. Instead of expressing the possibility/impossibilty of reach zero, we could express it in terms of the likelihood/costs of change to the system. Obviously P is hardest to change, G/P would also be very difficult. E/G could make substantial contributions, but F/E is by far the highest return on effort/expense.
-
nigelj at 08:43 AM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
Despite the flaws in the movie theres an obvious case to combine renewable energy with getting population growth down and reducing per capita use of energy, by frugality and better efficiency. But in democracies its unlikely the public would vote for governments telling them how many children they can have, and how much they are allowed to consume, so you are reliant on rational persuasion, and its difficult to persuade people to reduce consumption and it takes time for energy efficient products to permeate through the market and to get population growth to slow. The net result is we will obviously need a great deal of renewable energy as a matter of urgency.
-
Bob Loblaw at 07:04 AM on 26 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2020
David Hawk @3
Hmm. Interesting story. I had never heard of the Wharton School of Business until someone who starred on a reality TV series talked about going there, sending at least one of his kids there, and what a great school it was. (He's currently the lead character in an ongoing 4-year series on politics in the U.S.)
Now I know a little more about the School, and it explains something to me.
-
Bob Loblaw at 06:57 AM on 26 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
MA Rodger @25
When I said "intriguing", I did not mean to imply that Slarty's work was scientifically intriguing - rather that is was psychologically intriguing that he could come up with such bizarre results.
Slarty @ 26:
So much wrong in such a short space.
First, standard deviation is a calculation that is applied to a collection of independent values. Although you can do the math on any collection of values, SD is not a good measure of spread if the values are not independent.
Moving averages are clearly not independent. If you have 20 years of monthly data, you have
- 240 monthly values
- 80 3-month values
- 40 6-month values
- 20 annual values
- 2 decadal (10-yr) values.
If you think that you have more than 2 independent 10-yr averages (e.g., from a moving average), you are wrong.
Even in the numbers I list above, you need to account for autocorelation to get the proper significance tests working. Warm months and warm years (or cool months and cool years) tend to clump together. If you have a warm year, there is a good chance the following year will also be warm. Why? Physics. The earth doesn't randomly jump temperatures - it takes time to warm up or cool down, becuase you have to add or remove a lot of energy.
And if you are taking overlapping moving averages, there is seriously bad autocorrelation. For a 10-year moving average (120 monthly values), moving one month along the time line drops one value and adds one - 119 of the values used in the next moving average are exactly the same. You don't seriously think that this is an "independent" result, do you? You do know about the assumption of "independent values" in statistics. don't you? You do know what happens if you violate that assumption, don't you?
And +/-3 SD is 99% range, not 95%.
And since a normal distribution is unbounded, if global temperature were truely a random variable then it is still possible to get +6 SD or -8 SD in any 100-year or 1000-year period. It doesn't happen, because Physics.
Slarty @27
The "Standard deviation" of means of sample size N is propoerly referred to as the standard error of the estimate of the mean (SE). Yes, the SD for a population is constant (as long as the distribution is not changing). The SE decreases by 1/sqrt(N), for random data, exacly as I have said. Larger sample = mean probably closer to correct value = smaller standard error.
You are the one that created a graph showing SD changing. Now you are sayong both that is is a constant, and that is can also be decreased. You need to seriously read a good statistics book and get your terminology correct.
No, "repeating the same measurement and averaging them" does not reduce the SD - it provides a more reliable estimate of the average (mean) according to the SE.
Fitted curves (1-month average, 60-month average) don't have Standard Deviations. When you calculate the "standard deviation" (the formula looks the same) of the residuals (I am guessing this is what you are talking about - but that nomenclature problem again), then again you are talking about standard errors.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 06:31 AM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
An extension of the Einstein quote at the end of my comment @3 that applies to many issues, not just Climate Change or COVID-19, would be that reducing harm and developing sustainable improvements for humanity requires the unconditional surrender by every person, in a certain measure, of their liberty of action, their sovereignty that is to say, and it is clear beyond all doubt that no other road can lead to sustainable improvement of humanity's condition on this planet.
It is important to expand the understanding to be clear that the objective of human activity needs to be developing sustainable activities that all humans can aspire to develop to enjoy if they choose to and that future generations can continue to do if they wish.
That expanded understanding has two parts:
- The need for the developed activities to be almost infinitely sustainable given the physical resources on this One, and potentially only, amazing planet that humans can be certain of being able to live on into the distant future.
- The need for the developed activities to not produce accumulating harm or changes of the nature of the planet in ways that diminish the robust diversity of life that humans evolved as a part of (and may be incapable of surviving without).
Every person's actions add up to be the future. So the better presentation would be:
The Sum Total of impacts of all Human actions must be aspired to meet the Do No Harm - Develop Sustainable Improvements Criteria. That identifies that everyone should be expanding their awareness and improving their understanding to help achieve and improve on important understanding like the Sustainable Development Goals. Only the less fortunate should be excused for behaving in harmful unsustainable ways. And every more fortunate person needs to be expected to strive to live better, more sustainably less harmfully, and help Others learn to be Better.
The problem with the current developed systems is rather thoroughly investigated by Thomas Piketty in his most recent book "Capital and Ideology". There is evidence of a history of constant effort to reduce unjust inequality in socioeconomic systems, actions that developed understandings like the Sustainable Development Goals. However, the reality is that history is full of examples of the ability of people who get away with becoming more fortunate and are not interested in that type of development to be able to win temporary regional power to resist the corrections of developed systems that they benefit from.
Developing sustainable improvements for Humanity, like the Sustainable Development Goals, requires everyone to be governed by the pursuit of correction of harmful developed injustice and inequality (regionally, nationally, between nations, and between current and future generations). Those who will not Self-Govern responsibly need to be Governed by Others who will help them become better people and limit the harm they do as they learn to be better people. Any other path will not be Sustainable, and likely be very harmful until its leadership direction of development is corrected.
Ensuring that expanded awareness and improved understanding is the basis for all Leadership actions is essential to the future of Humanity. And that expanded awareness and understanding includes consideration of matters that cannot be quantified in detail or be replicated by experiments. Piketty's book makes it clear that there is a lack of information regarding the issues he is presenting, but that lack of data does not mean that proper improvements of understanding cannot be developed.
-
CD at 05:23 AM on 26 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
@23 Bob Loblaw
It appears you don't understand standard deviations (SD) or scaling behaviour, based on what you have written.
i) The N is not the number of data points in the SD, it is the number in the moving average. Each moving average has its own SD as shown in the Christchurch data posted by MA Rodger. The SD of the blue curve (1 month average) is clearly much bigger than the SD of the red curve (5yr = 60 month average).
ii) You said: "but of course, for random data, the longer the averaging period, the smaller the standard deviation, according to 1/sqrt(N)."
NO !!!!!
The SD stays the same irrespective of the length of your time series. Doubling the averaging period doubles the total value of the terms being summed. Dividing by 2N just gives the same result. You only reduce the SD by repeating the same measurement and averaging them, not by increasing the number of data points. So averaging multiple station records in a regional trend will reduce the SD, doubling the length of single record will not.
-
Doug Bostrom at 05:12 AM on 26 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2020
Joel, thank you. But I should point out that it was Ari Jokimäki who started this resource. After many years (and countless articles) he handed over the helm to me.
Ari's RSS feed arrangement made it possible to hit the ground at a stumble as opposed to collapse. :-)
Dawei, I'm pondering on how that might be possible without causing a ripple effect in site code development (we're already highly tasked in that department).
-
michael sweet at 04:27 AM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
CBDunkerson,
It is possible to make steel using electricity or hydrogen to reduce the iron oxide. Likiewise both commercial and military planes can use electrofuels. The only not to convert these sources of pollution to renewable energy is lack of will.
-
David Hawk at 03:43 AM on 26 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2020
An early work from when skepticism towards the idea of climate change began. This was about a 2-year research project that ended with research results on climate change. These results were presented to OECD by Sweden's leadership. As project director I took the results into a dissertation at the Wharton School of Business. The research conclusions were in three volumes, titled "Environmental Protection: Analytic Solutions in Search of Synthetic Problems." The Dean of Wharton was firmly opposed to the reports, and the dissertation that followed saying: "I do not see what environmental deterioration has to do with business." I agreed that he did not see such. In anger he never sent the dissertation to the U of Penn library. The PhD was eventualy granted. Students, in protest, published the work via their organization at the Wharton School. That work was republished last year, with a 30 page update. The title: "Too Early, Too Late, Now what?"
A very pessimistic book on the most likely human future. There have been no signs of meaningful change in 40 years, even though some great ideas were available from business and government leaders back then.
-
CD at 03:10 AM on 26 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
@25 MA Roger
The red line on the BE Christchurch data you have posted is the 5-year moving average. Its SD is at least ±0.34 °C, which is obvious from the size of its fluctuations. That is nowhere near the 0.01 °C you claim for a ten year average even though the timeframe differs by only a factor of 2. The actual value for 10-year smoothing is ±0.28 °C. And remember that is BE data and BE smoothing, not mine. By the way the green line is not data: it is the best fit linear trend. That is why it is flat!
You don't extrapolate to a new SD for a different moving average timescale just by dividing the old SD by the new number of months. You first need to smooth with the new sliding window, then recalculate the SD. And by the way the SD inversely scales as the square root of N, not 1/N.
@21
On another point, if the SD is 0.167 °C, then the 95% confidence interval is ±3 SD or 6 SD in total. i.e. 1 °C. This generally approximates to the range of the data. That means that, while there is only a 5% chance that any data point will be 0.5 °C above or below the mean, over a millenium or longer, the probability that there is a fluctuation in the mean temperature between centuries of more than 0.5 °C somewhere in that timeframe gets quite big.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 02:36 AM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
An important part of the Original Yale Climate Connections is missing from the Re-post.
The statement below the title, before the body of the article is a statement that sets up the purpose of the article to be to expand the understanding more than the overly-simplistic Kaya Identity (simplicity that CBDunkerson correctly indicates is a concern - as Einstein said it is important to keep things simple but not too simple - “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.”).
"Contrary to the argument made in Jeff Gibbs' and Michael Moore's controversial film, curbing growth can slow climate change, but only clean technologies can stop it."
I would add that only sustainable human activity will be available to the future of humanity. All the unsustainable ways of living that have been developed are not Helpful no matter how Popular or Profitable they are. And the harmful unsustainable activities are the worst. The greatest tragedy is the way that the developed systems are able to be influenced by people who like to benefit from harmful unsustainable activity. That ability to influence things through misleading storytelling, the making-up of Ideological excuses for harmful unsustainable socioeconomic inequities and injustice harmfully prolongs the unsustainable harmful activity, making the future worse than it needs to be.
The effects of COVID-19 have been worse than they Needed to be.
Climate change impacts and the challenge of avoiding massive harmful future consequences have been made worse than the Need to be.
And successful misleading marketing by selfish pursuers of Impressions of Superiority relative to Others is a major impediment to achieving a sustainable and improving future for humanity.
A second Einstein Quote, from a July 30, 1932 letter he wrote to Dr. Freud, applies:
"... my first axiom: the quest of international security involves the unconditional surrender by every nation, in a certain measure, of its liberty of action, its sovereignty that is to say, and it is clear beyond all doubt that no other road can lead to such security."
-
Joel_Huberman at 23:52 PM on 25 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2020
Thanks, Doug, for creating such a valuable resource!
-
MA Rodger at 22:48 PM on 25 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Bob Loblaw @23,
You may be intrigued but the multi-layered errors present within the analysis of Slarty Bartfast make understanding hsi work a tad challenging and correcting it work nigh-on impossible.
The Christchurch NZ Slarty Bartfast analyses is presumably using this Berkeley Earth raw station data which you can see is flat over the record (the adjustmented data isn't) so an SD can be calculated without de-trending.
But the SD comes out at 1.58ºC which is not the 1.06ºC plotted on Slarty Bartfast's graph shown @21. If the wobbles are extracted by taking the monthly variation form the annual mean, the SD reduces but only to 1.5ºC. (If you do the same de-wobbling on BEST global monthly anomalies SD=0.1ºC and with the unwobbly ocean data removed, for global land SD=0.3ºC.)
Trying to reproduce Slarty Bartfast's graph shown @21, if the SD of the de-wobbled raw Xch data is then calculated for multiple-month periods, as period-length increases the reduction in SD is much steeper than the graph, a reduction you'd expect for a normally-distributed signal (from monthly SD=1.5ºC down to decadal SD=0.01ºC). And extrapolating to 1,200 months yields SD=0.001ºC. This 1,200 month value is greatly smaller than Slarty Bartfast's SD=0.17ºC and would suggest yet another fundamental error within his analysis. Mind, such frequent error seems characteristic of his work. His SLR analysis showed him unable to read a map and unable to read a table, both errors fundamental to his analysis.
-
CBDunkerson at 21:46 PM on 25 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
I think the argument is generally valid, but glosses over some details. Specifically, we are unlikely to get down to true zero emissions for a long time... but we also don't really need to.
There will likely be some applications (e.g. steel making, international commercial airlines, high speed military aircraft, etc) which cannot be run on electricity/batteries or other zero GHG emissions options based on current technologies.
However, we don't really need to get down to exactly zero emissions as natural carbon sinks can offset some low level of emissions. So long as we don't make the world so warm that carbon sinks start delining (e.g. spreading desertification outweighing increased plant growth towards the poles) we should be 'ok' with some small level of emissions.
The argument is still valid because it is just as implausible to reduce the human population and/or economic activity to near zero as to eliminate them entirely. Emissions intensity is the only factor that we can drastically reduce.
-
nigelj at 17:27 PM on 25 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
What a simple, elegant, convincing mathematical proof!
-
Dawei at 15:03 PM on 25 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2020
Warehouse sounds great! Will it be searchable by topic, e.g. "hurricanes" or "drought"?
-
Eclectic at 10:44 AM on 25 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Lawrie @20
Quite right . Your final question touches on the heart of the problem.
You and I, and every level-headed person, can look at the data and come directly to the bleeding obvious deduction.
But that's not what happens in Denialist brains ~ they continually spout all kinds of pseudo-scientific nonsense. Alas, it is the nature of the beast. They are internally motivated to avoid seeing the Elephant standing in front of them.
Some of the climate denialists are single-issue crackpots. Rational in other areas . . . but fixated on the "non-greenhouse nature" of certain GH gasses ~ or have some other crazily contrarian Bee in their bonnet. Most of these guys [rarely a female] have little or no political axe to grind.
Other climate-science deniers (the majority) start from an extremist political position which originates in (or perhaps is reinforced by) personality traits of perverseness / anti-authoritarianism / fundamentalist religiosity / toxic libertarianism / delusions of superiority [e.g. Dunning-Krugerism] / or plain simple selfishness & lack of altruism. These also are usually male. (The female versions I encounter seem to be "just going along" with a toxic husband/boyfriend, for the sake of a quiet domestic life. But I have met one exception! )
This majority is known by their demonstration of rampant Motivated Reasoning. They proclaim all sorts of excuses showing that "the science" is wrong. Either :- a serial of excuses ~ like a heavy frog leaping from one undersized lilypad to another . . . and eventually landing on the Island of Conspiracy, from which they can't be dislodged.
Alternatively , they blast away with shotgun pellets of all sorts of excuses at once (and of course most of these excuses are doomed to be mutually-contradictory). Our friend Slarty is clearly of the "shotgun" type. But he has shown an admirable output of energy in constructing his blog, even though entirely misdirected & largely oblivious to the underlying physical processes of planetary climate.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 08:35 AM on 25 June 2020Restoring Science, Protecting the Public: 43 Steps for the Next Presidential Term
This is a thorough and very defensible presentation.
Expanded awareness and improved understanding, what science is all about, becomes political when it exposes a harmful reality of a developed socioeconomic-political system.
Human systems should be striving to develop sustainable improvements for everyone without harming Others, including helping, not harming, the future generations.
Thomas Piketty's 2020 book "Capital and Ideology" (published in French in 2019) makes the point that Ideology always exists. It is the explanation and justification of the developed systems. And the history of human developed socioeconomic-political systems is filled with the cases where the harmful inequities of the systems get Ideologically covered-up by Stories made-up without solid evidence to support them.
All pursuits of expanded awareness and improved understanding, which includes the study of the results of collective human behaviours not just the physical sciences, can expose the harmful weaknesses and flaws of the developed Ideologies and the systems they attempt to justify. When learning does that it triggers political reactions, often primal in nature (fight the corrections to the bitterest of ends).
Sustainable Leadership must constantly change its Ideology, including the reality of regional differences of Leadership Ideology. A diversity of Leadership that is all Governed by expanded awareness and improved understanding should be what humanity wants to see developed. The Sustainable Development Goals provide an excellent basis, open to improvement, for a regional diversity of Good Leadership. But misleading marketing that can tempt primordial human instinctive liking for greed and intolerance of Others makes it difficult for that Best Future for Humanity to develop and improve.
One of the greatest threats to the future of humanity is people who resist understanding that their developed Impression of Superiority relative to Others is not deserved.
-
nigelj at 07:44 AM on 25 June 2020Restoring Science, Protecting the Public: 43 Steps for the Next Presidential Term
Not only has the Trump administration irresponsibly undermined the hard sciences, the administrations approach to the economy is far from science / evidence based as well:
edition.cnn.com/2020/06/24/business/recession-tariffs-europe-immigration-trump/index.html
-
Bob Loblaw at 07:41 AM on 25 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Nothing here makes me want to spend time gong to Slarty's web site to read it, but MA Rodger's most recent coment is - shall we say - intruiging.
Trying to follow through the process that leads to the figure MA has included, leads me to this:
- On the X-axis, N must be the number of months that are used to derive the stddev, so ln(N)=0 is N=1 is monthly data; ln(N)=1.099 is N=3, so the three-month accumulation, and onward to ln(N)=7.09 is N=1200 months, or ten years.
As we average over longer periods, the stddev of the individual periods decreases, so ln(stddev) decreases from the first point (ln(N)=0), where ln(stddev) = about 0.07, so stddev is about 1.07, until we reach the last point where ln(stddev) is about -1.25, so stddev is about 0.28.
...but of course, for random data, the longer the averaging period, the smaller the standard deviation, according to 1/sqrt(N). So, in a random system, having stddev=1 for N=1 would lead to stddev=0.03 for 1200 months. (1/sqrt(1200)).
That the observed standard deviation decreases much more slowly than this, as the averaging period increases, is an indication that the data series is not random.
Even so, any statistical technique that treats each observation (a one-month anomaly, an annual annomaly, etc.) as an independent value is doomed to failure. The values are not a collection of independent observations - they are a time series. So time-series analyisys is required. And for the longer periods you need to account for serial autocorrelation in the data to get the statistical significance right.
And lastly, if the "century" stddev is (by extraopolation) of the order of 0.167, then how does Slarty mathturbate that into saying a 1C shift is covered by that 0.167 stddev? Does he claim that a 0.167 stddev implies that monthly anomalies can be 1C, and therefor monthly anomalies of 1C compared to a century ago are just random?
If that were the case, then anomalies of 1C would appear spread across the century, not all clumped at one end. That clumping at one end tells us something - and that "something" is that climate change is causing global warming, and that temperatures have risen, and that the results are statistically significant.
-
nigelj at 07:30 AM on 25 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
MAR @21, I would disagree that Slarty Bartfast is totally unintelligent. Slarty Bartfast would probably be intelligent in the sense of having an above average IQ given his technical abilities. However he applies these abilities in a very shoddy way (as you yourself imply) to construct his house of cards of AGW denial.
At the very least he lacks much wisdom or quality control of his own reasoning or there is some deliberate stupidity being applied. The question is why is he so sloppy or deliberately stupid?
Firstly it is hard to believe he is lazy, given the time he has spent constructing his elaborate house of cards.
Secondly its possible he is a crank. "Crank(person)" on wikipedia has an interesting definition and symptoms, and he fits some but not all of these symptoms. So hmmm. Although you will note there are some similarities to Victor.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crank_(person)
Thirdly Slarty mentioned that hes a socialist. Some individuals have emerged who stridently oppose the AGW consensus and climate mitigation even although they lean left and liberal politically. This is odd, given those on the left tend to be more accepting of AGW than those on the right, according to various polling studies, eg by Pew Research. But some of them have expressed concern of how climate mitigation would hurt poor people and this surely explains their scepticism of the science, especially as they are mostly educated people and not born ignoramuses.
I suspect Slarty fits this definition of being worried about how climate mitigation might impact on the poor (wrongly I think because its easy to construct things like carbon taxes so they exclude low income people or give them a rebate of some sort). He has run away and not answered the simple question I posed on the matter, which suggests I'm probably right.
Or there is a fourth possibility that he has slotted in the labels of 'environmentalist' and 'socialist', merely as a tool to help convince those on the left of the veracity of his crack pot ideas.
Or fifthly, reading Douglas Adams very entertaining series of novels has addled his mind.
I did some psychology at university, so we studied human motivations and they intrigue me, although my main degree is in architecture.
But I think the most likely possibility is Slartys unjustified concerns over the impacts of climate mitigation on poor people have lead to an attempt to find flaws in the science, and this in turn has pushed him towards the definition of a "crank".
As to Slarty's views that glaciers haven't melted much in New Zealand, and this is because we have "low population density" and so not much "waste heat" as a result. I should say something given I live in the country. NZ's glaciers have in fact lost 33% of their ice mass since the mid 1970s (when monitoring began) which is obviously very substantial, and this is close to the rate in Europe from that same time period. Related article below:
www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12269796
I would say to Slarty "so long and thanks for all the (dead) fish"
Moderator Response:[PS] I would admit that moderation has been a bit sleepy on this thread but the time has come. Speculations on commentators intelligence are breaches of comment policy. I would request any further commentary is to point and in conformance with comment policy.
-
MA Rodger at 21:58 PM on 24 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Eclectic @17, 18 & 19,
I disagree with your assessment that Slarty Bartfast is "an intelligent guy". In my assessment, he has little-to-no understanding of the scientific concepts he wields, hardily a mark of intelligence. And if you dig deeper, you will find the work of Slarty Bartfast has a 'fractal' property, in that crazy assertions and error are used to support further crazy assertions and error.…
With Slarty Bartfast not appearing eager to explain that most prized of his pronouncements within his grand debunking of AGW, perhaps it is beholden on me to explain to Slarty Bartfast what he has managed to have gone and done (or at least the central blunder thereof). This concerns his grand proof that most of what is seen as AGW is but random noise. As I asserted @13, this is nought but Slarty Bartfast pressing the Infinite Improbability Drive button.
On his blogpage 'Fooled by Randomness', Slarty Bartfast takes three lengthy NZ met station records of monthly temperature anomalies and calculates the distribution of these anomalies about the mean – that is of course the Standard Deviation and that works out at roughly 1ºC.
(The exact derivation of his 'mean' is not explained. The data from Xch NZ 1864-2013 shown graphed is the raw station data but the SD graphed is not the simple SD of the 1,796 data points.)
The monthly-data exercise is then repeated for tri-monthly, half-yearly, annual, bi-annual, 5-year and 10-year averages and these seven SDs are plotted against length-of-data-point on a log-log scale and found to produce a nice straight line (shown below).
This straightness allows Slarty Bartfast to extrapolate the relationship to obtain a value for the SD of century-averaged anomalies which is found to be a sixth the SD of monthly data (thus SD≈0.167ºC). And having derived the size of the SD, the spread of the data will be also a sixth as great. This allows Slarty Bartfast to infer that the scatter/spread of a set of century-averaged data-points would be “almost 1°C,” thus a value pretty-much the same as the level of AGW over the last century. (And it will help to say that for Slarty Bartfast, this 'scatter/spread' results from random “noise”.)
The next bit is implicit within Slarty Bartfast's argument. With the spread from noise being 1ºC, what if today's century-averaged anomaly is at the top of the noise-range and last century's at the bottom? That would account for all this AGW nonsense!!
This revelation Slarty Bartfast declares @12 to be “entirely possible” although he went further on his shabby little blogsite by first saying it is “probably” so and then concluding that it actually is the case that "most of what yuo see" as AGW is just random noise.This, of course, is eye-bulgingly stupid in so many ways but in terms of the Infinite Improbability driving Slarty Bartfast's anti-AGW missiles, the probability of a particular data point sitting 3SD above the mean is roughly 600:1 and the probability of its preceding data point sitting 3SD below the mean combines to a 350,000:1 likelihood. I would suggest that is essily improbable enough for something as inert as a bowl of petunias to think “Oh, no. Not again.”
But for Slarty Bartfast, such things are real and actual because all you need to do is believe.
-
Lawrie at 21:28 PM on 24 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Slarty Bartfast 11 States: But this doesn't change my overall point, that sea level rise is miniscule and unmeasurable and a long way from what most media stories would imply. It is not going to submerge major cities in the next 100 years.
According to NOAA - https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/lsa/SeaLevelRise/LSA_SLR_timeseries_global.php . NOAA/NESDIS/STAR provide estimates of sea level rise based on measurements from satellite radar altimeters. Plots and time series are available for TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, which have monitored the same ground track since 1992, and for most of the altimeters that have operated since 1991, including T/P, Jason-1, Jason-2, Jason-3, ERS-2, GFO, and Envisat.
Only altimetry measurements between 66°S and 66°N have been processed. An inverted barometer has been applied to the time series. The estimates of sea level rise do not include glacial isostatic adjustment effects on the geoid, which are modeled to be +0.2 to +0.5 mm/year when globally averaged.
Since 1992 Sea levels have risen by about 80 mm and there is no evidence that the rate of increase is slowing down. Why do scientists continually need to refute the kind of pseudo-scientific nonsense emanating from people like SB?
-
Doug Bostrom at 07:51 AM on 24 June 2020Restoring Science, Protecting the Public: 43 Steps for the Next Presidential Term
As the piece points out the politicization of science during the current administration, it's necessarily political in nature.
Politics is where science meets policy.
William, your suggestion to "do nothing" seems axiomatically of low utility.
Perfection isn't possible but better statistics are. That's why we brush our teeth, fasten seat belts, wash our hands and perform a myriad of other actions offering no guarantee other than improved odds. It's the same with this situation.
As a statistical matter, we'd have been better off with many of the other candidates the currrent WH occupant faced.
Advocating "doing nothing" is itself a destructive act of politics.
-
william5331 at 06:33 AM on 24 June 2020Restoring Science, Protecting the Public: 43 Steps for the Next Presidential Term
You better deleat this one. It is all political.
And there will be pie in the sky when we die. What great asperations, all of it gum flapping. Under Trump we have seen with crystal clarity, what he thinks of science during this C19 crisis and the results?? Thousands of his people dead who should still be alive. His attitude toward climate change is equally primitive. Do you think it will be any better under Biden. The only hope was for Bernie to be elected. Then these asperations would have born fruit. The DNC scuppered that. At least under Trump it got people united against his stupidity and cupidity.
-
michael sweet at 22:36 PM on 23 June 2020Renewables can't provide baseload power
Preston Urka,
Perhaps if you read more current articles you would be less skeptical. This post from less than one month ago (Smart Energy Europe) here at Skeptical Science describes a 100% renewable energy system that delivers All Power at a comparable cost to fossil fuels. They account for all storage costs. They use only existing technology. They use the total energy use of the EU.
As for your response to Jacobson 2015, he has published a new paper, Jacobson 2018, that addresses all the issues raised about his original paper. There has been plenty of time to write a response to his 2018 paper but ctritics obviously feel he has answered their questions. I note that in his original paper he found many solutions to the problem and he only described one. In addition, the Smart Energy Europe paper uses a completely different system than Jacobson does and finds essentially the same result. That indicates that there are many paths to a completely renewable system.
Perhaps you should read the Smart Energy Europe OP and describe your complaints there. We certainly do not have a "done deal" and need to continue to worry about Climate Change. That does not mean that there are not solutions at hand, it means that politicians are not taking the needed steps to solve the problem.
A response to Burden of Proof, your reference to "refute" Jacobson is here. Burden of Proof is shown to have no basis in fact. I note that Burden of Proof is written by a group of nuclear no-hopers.
Perhaps you could tell us what you think needs to be done so different solutions can be compared. Criticizing possible solutions without offering alternates is not very helpful.
Vote Climate!
-
Daniel19526 at 21:39 PM on 23 June 2020A Glimpse at Our Possible Future Climate, Best to Worst Case Scenarios
It has now been 7 years since this article was published and so we have some more data available with which we can review the most likely scenarios.
Global CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels seem to me to suggest, at best, a RPC 4.5 trajectory. Have I misinterpreted the latest data or do others also think that things really are that bad?
Prev 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 Next
