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Comments 76201 to 76250:

  1. 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
    Adelady, I think you may be under a slight misapprehension regarding the rainfall event in Toowoomba. This was NOT the first time by any means that such rainfall has occurred there. The flooding was because of major changes in re-engineered creeks, the insertion of smaller pipes to drain some (one in particular) park areas. Older residents remember flooding as large as 2011 but of course in earlier days the information was much more contained in the area. Grantham was a new experience but the toal anmount of water was not very new and later constructions of raods and railways played a large part in directing higher flooding there also. A second impoortant point about the Brisbane area flooding is that it was all much les, as in some metres lower, than in 1843 and other earlier years of the 19th century and also than both 1893 and 1974. This is in spite of the fact that construction of roads and buildings has caused very different channelling of the water. Other flooding in Queensland, while quite significant, was certainly NOT unprecedented. John Nicol jonicol18@bigpond.com Brisbane
  2. Michaels Mischief #2: Opposing Climate Solutions
    Re #7: Ah, but for some of us public transportation is not a valid option while an EV would be fantastic. For instance, my commute is only about 10 miles each way, but due to the lousy bus system out here it would take me nearly an hour and two different buses each way to commute via mass-transit. Add to that the need to run errands after work (imagine trying to make 2-3 stops with buses this bad) and the public transportation option is simply out of the question. On the other hand, were I able to afford to swap out my current 30mpg compact for a Volt I'd rarely even use the ICE and it wouldn't inconvenience me in the slightest.
  3. 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
    It is fairly obvious that if the global climate is in a particular condition, such as occurred during each of the ice ages, during the Maunder minimum and the Medeaval Warm period, or during each of the Holocene periods between the coldest years, that ALL of the countries on earth will experience similar changes as shown in Figure 1. What is also remarkable from that figure is that most of the countries cited are in near tropical regions, whereas, the suggestions from all models supporting the IPCC has been, I believe, that the colder latitudes will show the greatest increse in temperature. Poland appears to be the only significant outlier from this observation, and it appears at the lower end of the scale. Since one of the key factors defining weather or climate, and one which is clearly measureable without much massaging, is precipitation, it is very surprising to see Figure 7 here being held up as a demonstration of "extreme" weather. As shown, in the last 100 years, the bunching of more "extreme" years is actually in the 1950s, with something of a decay in that condition thereafter. The peak rainfall in 2010 is only marginally higher than about 1918 and 1951 and is slightly less "extreme" than the dry year of about 1902. John Nicol jonicol18@bigpond.com
  4. Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
    For clarification I am not denying the physical properties of CO2 to absorb infrared radiation - I accept that without doubt. I don't claim to know why Venus is 730 K. But I do there are some claims made about the greenhouse effect that make little sense to me. Why is it valid to reduce solar insolation by a factor of 4 to calculate the "effective blackbody temperature" of a planet - especially Venus with it 200 odd earth day long day ? I get the geometry I just think it isn't relevant for a dynamic system. Parts of the earth receive way more than Kiehl & Trenberth's average 235 W/sq m. Parts get almost zero except by ocean and atmospheric circulation. I believe the oceans, and to a lesser extent the atmosphere, store enough energy during the day so that when the sun sets (or the earth turns if you prefer) and the energy really starts to escape to space the ocean and atmosphere radiate relatively slowly so that before we turn into a block of ice we get our next fix the next morning. The downwelling longwave radiation measured in the atmosphere is not only from CO2 and water vapour but from the whole atmosphere - oxygen and nitrogen included - which primarily becomes heated by conduction and convection. At 0.04% of the atmosphere CO2 radiative effect is small - real but it must be in proportion to its concentration. It has a specific heat of less than 1 J/gram. Water vapour, which is at least 60 times more abundant in the average atmosphere has a specific heat of double that but it is the latent heat water vapour carries, which CO2 doesn't, that makes it the driver of the climate - some 2400 J/gram. So - i know this is off topic slightly but it is relevant. Perhaps the water on Venus did disappear as postulated - I don't claim to know.
  5. Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
    8, Rosco,
    I realize that the claim is it accumulates but isn't that what I said in my proposal for an energy source which everyone laughed at.
    No. What you said was that it would accumulate, then you implied that this accumulation would be generative... that you could proceed to take out more energy than was being put in after it had accumulated. If you meant that we could only take out the energy that was put in, then what was your point? You described a new form of battery. The greenhouse effect works exactly by trapping and accumulating heat, as you well know, and the disparity in the numbers is not an issue. 132 can lead to 16,100, and you already answered why yourself. If the system takes in 132 every day, and emits 131.9999 every day, then after 10,000 days the temperature has raised 1 degree. Some 160,000,000 or so days later, the surface temperature reaches 730K. There's nothing at all illogical or impossible behind this. Simply declaring that you find it incredible is neither evidence nor argument, but nothing more than mere obstinacy. I find such a position to be unworthy of discussion.
  6. Michaels Mischief #2: Opposing Climate Solutions
    Why in the world does Pat Michaels have a blog at Forbes? Do they actually pay him? And even given that he has a blog, why would they let him write about renewable energy? Honestly, one could come up with about a thousand (or ten thousand) others who are far more knowledgeable. Nevermind. Forget I asked...
  7. Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
    I realize that the claim is it accumulates but isn't that what I said in my proposal for an energy source which everyone laughed at. If it is possible to accumulate energy as postulated for Venus then my proposal is equally valid.
  8. Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
    The criticism of my proposal is obviously right - it can't work - you always get less out than you input - unfortunate but true. The following is from a University lecture about the greenhouse effect on Venus :- "From geometry, we can calculate the average solar flux over the surface of Venus. It is approximately 661 W/m2. Venus is very reflective of solar radiation. In fact, it has a reflectivity (or albedo) of 0.8, so the planet absorbs approximately 661 X 0.2 = 132 W/m2. By assuming that the incoming radiation equals the outgoing radiation (energy balance), we can convert this into an effective radiating temperature by invoking the Stefan-Boltzmann law (total energy = σT4). We find that T=220 K. But Venus’ surface has a temperature of 730 K!!!" Do a little reverse maths - climate scientists tell us this is right - raise 730 K to the power of 4 multiply by 5.67 by 10 to the -8 (Stefan-Boltzman) and you get a radiative flux of 16,100 W/sq m. Where does this come from when a University Professor tells me the sutface of Venus receives only 132 W/sq m ? I think this is a fair question. If it is from the greenhouse effect how did this develop initially ? 132 W/sq m couldn't possibly do it. Venus has something going on that we don't know about - probably vulcanism, possibly high nuclear radiation - who knows. But I do know Venus is closer to the sun so that it receives nearly twice the irradiation that Earth does, it rotates slowly in the opposite direction to Earth and has enormous temperatures and pressure. Sphaerica, my point is what possible sensible physical principle can explain 16100 W/sq m radiative flux from an input of a mere 132 W/sq m ? It cannot possibly be due to the the greenhouse effect which is simply that CO2 absorbs infrared radiation from the surface of the planet because everything in the Universe radiates proportionally to its temperature so a runaway greenhouse simply doesn't add up - 132 in 16,100 out does not add up. Even if you assume all the solar radiation of 2644 W/sq m top of Venus atmosphere made it to the surface it is still a factor of 6 out. Seriously, I do not believe a runaway greenhouse effect as supposed can possily exist as described for Venus but I am open to convincing. Can anyone offer a valid explanation how the greenhouse effect can accumulate more than 100 times the energy entering a system and contain it ? I didn't find the professors explanation very convincing.
    Moderator Response: The energy accumulated. It did not all appear at once.
  9. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC SAR
    "So to summarize how we can show the excellent quality of the SAR projections, we simply need adjust the slope and offset of the the SAR projections to match the observed data."
    I didn't say the SAR projections were "excellent quality". In fact I basically said the opposite:
    "The SAR projection of the warming over the past two decades hasn't been terribly accurate"
    The purpose of adjusting the slope (sensitivity) and offset (baseline) is to see what model parameters would have made accurate projections, not to say the model and parameters were accurate.
  10. SkS Weekly Digest #13
    Added: If you scroll to the bottom of the climate graphics page at the time I am posting this, the graphics are 'published' using this creative commons license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This is only possible because John and other SkS authors are the authors.
  11. SkS Weekly Digest #13
    The graphics provided by John and others are licensed for general use in presentations and anything I think. This is possible because John and others are the authors of the works. If you make use the cartoon above, you would need to check the license. I don't know what that is. The owner of a 'property' decides how it can be used. The issue isn't the ability to copy, the issue is the intent of the owner or author. That is the same throughout all copyright law. Ease of copying doesn't give you any rights to copy.
  12. Sea level rise is decelerating
    Thanks for fixing the tags.
  13. Sea level rise is decelerating
    From time to time I have e-mailed some of the principle names in Climate Science with a specific question but mostly I don't want to waste their time and I don't expect a dialog with them although it did happen once. Furthermore they don't show up on blogs, if they do it isn't under their own name. I most certainly am not going to e-mail John Church to criticize his paper. I don't consider Tamino a principle or objective.
    Response:

    [DB] "I don't consider Tamino a principle or objective."

    Well then, let me ask you this: 

    How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg?

    Four; calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg. (Abraham Lincoln)

    Discounting Tamino's analysis because you don't like it or don't consider him objective doesn't detract from the fact the Tamino is a professional time-series analyst whose work in climate science not only stands the test of time but is widely considered a de facto standard in climate science.

    Yes, Tamino can be irrascible.  Mostly that stems from those who refuse to learn, have a large vein of Dunning-Kruger running through them and those slander working climate scientists.  We are similar in that regard.  But again, that does not detract from his work.

    If you have issues with the work that forms this post, take it up with him.  If you have questions regarding the work of Church & White, take it up with them (I have yet to find a climate scientist unwilling to help those with genuine questions about their work).

  14. Dikran Marsupial at 06:37 AM on 1 September 2011
    Settled Science - Humans are Raising CO2 Levels
    Stephen Baines wroe "DM...A skeptic could always argue that we simply don't know all the terms well enough to do a proper mass balance." Yes, they could say that, but they would be wrong, the mass balance argument only requires estimates of anthropogenic emissions (which are taxed, so our estimates are pretty reliable and if anything an under-estimate) and observations of atmospheric CO2 (even WUWT accept that the Mauna Loa record is accurate). If the skeptics can't accept that, they will have no problem not accepting isotopic arguments either.
  15. Mythic Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty
    rcglinski#50 I don't understand what you're objecting to. Translate the IPCC statement into numbers if you like: There is a 90% or better chance that 51% or more of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The meaning is clear. Of course, 'most' is probably higher than 51%. But that is worst case; where's the problem?
  16. Dikran Marsupial at 06:22 AM on 1 September 2011
    Mythic Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty
    trunkmonkey wrote: "We have seen the models founder at the decadal time scale... " Well duh! Of course they founder on a decadal scale because on a decadal scale what you see is dominated by chaotic features of internal climate variability, not the effects of the forcing. Only someone completely ignorant of the workings of climate models would expect models to perform well on a decadal timescale or very small spatial scales (e.g. station data). Models are just getting to the point where decadal predictions may be worthwhile, hence the next IPCC report is likely to mention them as an active area of research. See this thread at RealClimate So, exactly what was the point you were trying to make when you wrote "the models founder at the decadal timescale"?
  17. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC SAR
    I agree that there is no need to get wrapped up in baselines, but it is also good practice to give basic information about what one is presenting. A simple "SAR projections have been offset such that the 1990 projection is equal to the GISS Temp 5 year running average in 1990" would have been sufficient, either in the main post, or in response to my question about baselines. (both the 1990 5 year running average and the 5 year gaussian smooth are 0.27 C, so your plot of projections is a bit low). ====================================== Since offsets or baselines don't matter, and the SAR projection is pretty much nothing but a straight line 1990-2010, then perhaps the most useful comparison would be simply to look at the 1990 to 2010 slopes. The SAR projection extended to 2100 is 1.5 C rise in 110 years, or 0.136 C / decade. The observed GISS land-sea global temp from 1990 through 2010 is 0.194 C/ decade. (per Excel linear regression Slope function). So the observed slope is 0.194/0.136 = 143% of projection. For the best match, we would simply increase the SAR projections by 43%. Treating the stated sensitivy of 2.5C/doubling as 2.12C, and then increasing that to 3 C/doubling is the equivalent of increasing the slope of the SAR projection by 3/2.12 = 42%. Not quite the perfect after-the-fact adjustment, but pretty close. So to summarize how we can show the excellent quality of the SAR projections, we simply need adjust the slope and offset of the the SAR projections to match the observed data. ============================== Regarding the F2x value ..... AR4 shows a range from 3.09 W/m2 for MIROC3.2(medres) up to 4.06 W/m2 for GISS-ER and GISS-EH. So the 3.7W/m2 is by no means the last word. The AR4 table equivalent to the TAR WGI Appendix 9 reference of the headpost is AR4 WG1 Chap 8, supplementary table S8.1. At the very end of (large pdf) AR4 WG1 Chap 8, supplementary info.
  18. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC SAR
    Charlie, there's no point in getting wrapped up in baselines. The baseline doesn't mean anything, it's just an arbitrary offset. All I did was offset the SAR projection in 1990 to match the GISTEMP 5-year running average value in 1990 (approximately 0.25°C). What matters are the temperature changes from 1990 to 2010, not the arbitrary baseline selection.
  19. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC SAR
    By "Figures 5 and 6 use the GISTEMP baseline" I assume that you mean the 1951-1980 baseline, correct? There are many ways to adjust the baseline of the SAR projection to match the 1951-1980 baseline of the observed data. One method, which generates the best match between projection and observations is to wait until the end of the observation & projection period, and then go back and adjust the mean of the projection so it is equal to the actual observed mean temp over the projection period. It does appear that the 1990 SAR projection has been adjusted upward such that the mean projection matches the 0.424 C 1990-2010 mean of the GISS measured data. Is this what you did? Or is there some other calculation you used to change the 1990 SAR projection from the 0.00C shown in Figure 4, to the approximately 0.25C you show in Figures 5 and 6 ?
  20. CO2 is just a trace gas
    There are many other examples. The generally accepted safe limit for lead in soil is around 300 ppm. More at ClimateBites.
  21. Sea level rise is decelerating
    I went through the tide gauge data set section of Estimates of the Regional Distribution of Sea Level Rise over the 1950–2000 Period I gleaned some numbers for my spreadsheet and put them into tabular order as follows: Record..Status..........Reason 1159....RLR 1950....Met -256....eliminated......Records >2 years -1063...eliminated......Redundant -95.....eliminated......beyond TOPEX/Poseidon range -37.....eliminated......<250 km to Alt grid point. 1658....records for further assessment. ??......eliminated......Disagreement nearby records ??......eliminated......Locations ??......eliminated......Fragmented ??......eliminated......Noise ??......eliminated......Residual trends <10 mm/year -713....Eliminated......For above 5 reasons? (1658-945=713) 945.....combined -491....eliminated......by combination 454.....records for further assessment. -28.....eliminated......No useful data 426.....records for further assessment. Comments: Really, because Topex/Poseidon didn't cover the range they tossed the data? I don't think that makes sense, but I suppose there's a reason for that. In the text they go from 1658 records down to 945 records but don't give us any numbers as to how many were eliminated for the five reasons tabulated above. Residual Trends <10 mm/yr is reasonably objective. The other four listed are somewhat subjective without any guidelines as to what constitutes unsuitable locations, too much noise, too much fragmentation, or how much disagreement with other records is allowed or how near by they must be. After combining the 945 records there was another group of records eliminated for having no useful data. What was not useful? Perhaps in the data file that defies downloading for me, that is spelled out and each and every deletion is annotated as to how the criteria were met. As it stands right now and as far as I’m concerned, there is room for some subjectivity in perhaps several hundred deletions of data. A simple analysis of the data yields one thing, and the process along with the above editing criteria yields the opposite. Now even though there's a difference in sign, if the two time lines were close no one would care, but as you can see, they're not. The above is not the same as Reconstructed GMSL for 1880 to 2009 Which is linked at the top of this page but the treatment of the data is likely to be similar.
    Response:

    [DB] Fixed tags.

    The most likely reason for your lines diverging is that you are doing something wrong.  I suggest you contact Dr. Church or Dr. White (or Tamino, as this is his post) for advice.

    That would be the skeptical thing to do.

  22. Mythic Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty
    @ 28 muoncounter "Why not? If I need to run an economic model, telling me that an event has a 65% chance of occurrence is an input to an expected value calculation." This is an example of a situation where specifying the number does remove the ambiguity. You can't run an economic model off of "pretty sure." You need 65%. The number really means something. If you thought it was actually a 63% chance you'd use that number. Contrast to the IPCC. If they were to define "very likely" as 88% instead of 90% nothing really changes. The intent isn't to say there is actually a 90% or 88% chance that something is right. You're not adding information by citing a number the way you are in the example you gave.
  23. Mythic Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty
    critical#45: Trenberth: Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have led to a post-2000 imbalance at the TOA of 0.9±0.5 W/ m^2 Hansen: ... that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 ± 0.15 W/m^2 during the 6-year period 2005-2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. There may be differences in the numbers, but there is minimal uncertainty as to the mechanism and the cause. As Denning says, physics doesn't care what you believe. Arguing over the last decimal place is silly; it's real, it's happening. Stop denying that and do something about it. That we do nothing but wait until we 'can get more data' is ultimately the harm done by those who trumpet 'uncertainty' as if it is a red light.
  24. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC SAR
    Figures 5 and 6 use the GISTEMP baseline. The GISTEMP smoothing was done with the Excel "smooth" function. The Figure 5 caption explains what it's comparing.
  25. Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC SAR
    What are the baselines for the lines in Fig 5 and 6? Figure 4, from the SAR starts with a reference point of 0 C in 1990. In Figure 5 and 6 you start at about 0.25C in 1990. What did you use for the offset baseline for the GISS data; and was the smooth a particular function or just a hand drawn approximation? Figures 4 and 5 are nice comparison graphs but what they are actually comparing is unclear.
  26. It's not bad
    Joseph#150: Nice cherrypick! From the same (hardly scientific) article: “Since 2000, we’ve lost about 30 percent of the ice area as of 2009, but the thickness of at least the main glacier, the northern ice field, hasn’t changed a great deal. It was 50 meters thick then and now it’s on the order of 45 meters thick,” he said. Lack of long-term data concerning the thickness of the glaciers is what undermined their forecast, Hardy said. “Before 2000, we had no reference for how to treat the thinning other than by looking at historical photographs.”
  27. Mythic Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty
    Well, what do you mean when you say "positivism"? That's only half a joke. I would say that what you call "postmodernism" is actually post-structuralism being used as a defense against moral demands resulting from the dialectic between the current mode of production and human interests: you can't prove my responsibility because proof requires an absolute structure, and all structured theories ultimately fail (sooner rather than later in the case of any theory that involves a human factor). In other words, you attack by pointing out the apparent failure in the approach, and that, I'll assume your opinion, releases you from the knowledge-based responsibility produced by the approach. Yet you offer no alternative, defensible structure. I'll follow Jameson and point out that the term 'postmodern' is typically used to describe the cultural production that results from a historically-specific set of cultural conditions (collectively called 'postmodernity'). Your willingness to use a post-structuralist attack but not offer an alternative is a postmodern response. Models reflect the current-best effort of humans to predict the future of a system that is beyond their ability (individually or collectively) to comprehend. Models may "founder" at the decadal time scale, but if one says they "fail completely," then one implies that one is holding them to a standard that one is incapable of matching (and forever will be). Even models that predict the complete opposite of observed reality end up helping us produce subsequent models that are more accurate. Everyone's a positivist. You yourself continually act based on models with far greater uncertainties than the IPCC, and action is the representation of one's current understanding of "authentic knowledge," an understanding that is in constant flux--again, especially for individuals, but for the social construction of knowledge as well. Any other epistemology is a form of desperate response to the results of the positivist method (a method, by the way, that works increasingly better as the knowledge base is built and as we learn more and more about our weaknesses as humans). There is tremendous hubris in assuming that quantum randomness is either truly random or not random. So whatchu gonna do?
  28. It's not bad
    #149 skywatcher Example of predictions vs current trends disconnect: below is a quote by the scientists who predicted the disappearance of the snows of Kilimanjaro by 2015 “The glaciers are still shrinking, and in the next decades they will almost certainly disappear, but it will probably be on the order of three or four decades, maybe five,” Hardy said recently. “But we don’t know for sure. It might be in only two.” Here is the full article
    Moderator Response: [RH] Hot linked article.
  29. Climate Sensitivity: Feedbacks Anyone?
    I mean that, very unfortunately, it is difficult to quantitatively define the "Earth system sensitivity" to CO2 concentration, since CO2 concentration is an essential internal component of the system and not an external forcing. It is similar to this case: We cannot meaningfully discuss (fast-feedback) sensitivity of the climate system to specific humidity (=water vapor concentration).
  30. Mythic Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty
    trunkmonk#46 "chemistry and eventually everything would be reducable to physics." All science is either physics or stamp collecting. --Ernest Rutherford
  31. Sea level rise is decelerating
    22, Steve Case,
    That you want to complain about it is isn't anything I can do much about.
    No, I'm not "complaining," I am simply pointing out that the period which you selected, whatever your reasons, is hampered by a large number of factors which make it useless to use for an argument one way or the other. You cannot draw any conclusions about sea level rise acceleration using the period and data you have selected. That it shows what you want it to show, and so you are willing to easily overlook these issues, apparently isn't anything I can do much about. Other readers, however, can easily recognize what is being discussed and decide for themselves what the science says, and what can easily be done to promote false conclusions by creating scientific looking but invalid presentations, graphs and whatnot.
  32. Michaels Mischief #2: Opposing Climate Solutions
    I'm not a big fan of electric cars because the sweet spot for their use overlaps public transport. But I suppose Michaels doesn't like that either.
  33. Sea level rise is decelerating
    Steve - we've got a few posts on sea level rise coming up. I agree with you sea level rise in the 'noughties' has tapered off somewhat. But we, no doubt, disagree on what that really means. I'm awaiting on news on publication of a couple of papers on aerosols and subsequent global dimming over the last decade. Both papers shed light on why we have seen a 'slow-down' in global warming in the last decade.
  34. CO2 is just a trace gas
    I was just thinking that Bowdawg @ #26 was using numbers that were a bit too low for my liking. Then it occurred to me to look up how big US gallons are (or should I say, how small they are). British gallons are about 20% bigger than their US cousins (4,546 litres against 3.785 litres) and contain about 3kg of carbon (petrol slightly less, diesel slightly more) & burning one creates 11kg CO2.
  35. Mythic Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty
    Been enjoying the foray into post-modern philosophy on this positivist website. Positivism got a lot of traction in the early twentieth century when quantum mechanics made it seem that chemistry and eventually everything would be reducable to physics.Postmodernism reacted that emergent phenomena in complicated systems made them irreducable, at least in their behavior. We have seen the models founder at the decadal time scale...
  36. Republican Presidential Candidates vs. Climate Science
    EtR, if you're implying that Gore represents a Left position, you're simply wrong. Gore is in no way against capitalism. At best, he's Right-liberal.
  37. Sea level rise is decelerating
    #21 Sphærica La Niña and El Niño occur all the time. Here's a link to a NOAA page that lays it all out since 1950 Here's a graphic and trend of that data since 1993 The trend is down over that period of time. Pretty much as you say. Volcanos come and go. Sea level is what it is over that same period of time. The satellite record date happened to start in 1993. That's the way it is. That you want to complain about it is isn't anything I can do much about.
    Response:

    [DB] "The satellite record date happened to start in 1993.  That's the way it is.  That you want to complain about it is isn't anything I can do much about."

    You continue to cherry-pick by only using a small portion of the data available.  Satellites only represent a portion of the data available to us.  The consiliance of these datasets paints a different picture:

    C&W 2011 SLR

    Your laser-focus on the most recent period of data while ignoring that which came before it blinds you to the larger trend while magnifying the natural variability inherent in the system.

    In a nutshell, you can't see the forest because you have a tree in the way.  That's the way it is.

  38. Republican Presidential Candidates vs. Climate Science
    Other authors are following Dana’s suit. As they say, “Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery." Suggested reading: "GOP Presidential Candidates on Clean Energy and Climate Change" by Donnie Folwer, Huffington Post, Aug 30, 2011 To access this article, click here.
  39. Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
    3, Rosco, Your thought experiment glosses over the fact that when you use the energy after heating your collected gases, the pressure and/or temperature of the system must drop. Obviously, the laws of thermodynamics require that additional energy be added to the system to compensate, and there cannot be more energy removed than is being added by sunlight. The fact that you are able to use the greenhouse effect (or any other mechanism, such as a parabolic mirror or some other form of insulation) to raise the temperature does not automatically translate into an endless source of power. The energy in and out is the same, but simply with your system at a higher stable temperature. The implication that system can produce more power simply because it achieves a higher temperature is false and misleading. The ability to increase the temperature of the vessel beyond what one might normally expect does not automatically translate into a perpetual motion machine. So what's your point? It would, however, be possible to keep adding sunlight to a system (however one might reasonably construct it), if that system emitted less sunlight than it received, and so increase the temperature until it finally does emit as much sunlight as it was receiving, and so maintains that higher internal temperature. This is, in fact, the heart of GHG theory, and it clearly works and can be demonstrated. Your argument has absolutely no bearing on what does or does not happen on Venus. It is merely a demonstration of how easily one can think vaguely about concepts, and misapply them, to arrive at a wrong conclusion.
  40. Mythic Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty
    muoncounter #40 ctitical mass: "differences between Drs Trenberth and Hansen about the measured energy imbalances in recent years adds further uncertainty" Muoncounter: "Nonsense. They do not differ on the extent and causes of warming. How the energy balance is resolved does not add uncertainty to either of those questions." Dr Hansen believes that sharply increased Asian (mainly Chinese) aerosols is largely responsible for the reduced warming imbalance and Dr Trenberth says that he does not believe that for a moment. Here is Dr Trenberth's quotation from this site in "Trenberth on Tracking Earth's energy post #68: "There is discussion in the comments of the supposed finding that increasing aerosol (pollution) from China may be the explanation for the stasis in surface temperatures and I do not believe this for a moment. Similarly, Jim Hansen has discussed the role of aerosol as a source of discrepancy. However, the radiation measurements at the top of the atmosphere from satellites (CERES) include all of the aerosol effects, and so they are not extra. They may well be an important ingredient regionally, and I have no doubt they are, but globally they are not the explanation"
  41. SkS Weekly Digest #13
    @Paul D Help me understand why this might be an issue? I can copy them now from the image above - just as I could from any of the other pages on which they exist. I do not understand how having a single page that looks like the graphics page with a thumbnail to all the comics is any different to being able to right click on them as now - I very much doubt having such comics embedded comprises "unlicensed distribution" - or if it does then the comic above is also in breach? Unless I'm missing something?
  42. Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
    It seems to me that Rosco has hit-and-run at SkS before. If so, it's worthless to respond. If not, and if Rosco is genuinely curious, Rosco will engage the argument and either convince many of the people here, or Rosco will learn something new. Either way, Rosco benefits (in different ways, of course).
  43. Sea level rise is decelerating
    19, Steve Case, I'd say that you're taking far, far too short a time period to draw such a conclusion, and completely missed the point about Pinatubo and the ENSO events. There is no way to "subtract" them as you have, and even then... you left in the La Nina events that Tom was referring to, i.e. those from 2007 to the present. Because Pinatubo occurred at the beginning of your series it artificially depressed temperatures. Once that effect tapered off, the system rebounded, gaining the energy it had temporarily shunned. The end result is a more rapid increase in temperature in that time span (i.e. the beginning of your selected period), and in turn a more rapid sea level rise. The end of your series, conversely, includes an unusual series of La Nina events from 2007 to the present. This very brief period of apparent cooling will naturally retard sea level rise in the short term at the end of your curve. So you have selected a period where there is an artificially exaggerated increase at the beginning (a steep slope) and an artificial leveling at the end (a shallow slope). It is no surprise to anyone that you are able to "fit" the curve that you have, but that fit is meaningless. You need to use longer time frames. You need to be careful about using a biased selection of end points.
  44. Sea level rise is decelerating
    [DB] Thank you for the link to Church (2004)
    Response:

    [DB] You're welcome; anytime.

  45. Sea level rise is decelerating
    #11 Tom Curtis You complained that this posting of the complete satellite record included the effects of volcanoes, El Niño and La Niña so I took them out to see what it would look like: I'd say that it didn't have any effect. I'd say that according to the satellite record, the rate of sea level rise is not accelerating.
  46. Sea level rise is decelerating
    #17 Sky Watcher, The methodology we are told involves "Careful selection and editing criteria, as given by Church et al. (2004) And as I pointed out in my post, Church et al (2004) is a pay per view opus with no reference to criteria in the abstract. You extracted the raw PSMSL data in less than a minute? I'm impressed. Yes, the Church & White data, once you find the nearly hidden link downloads into Excel in about a minute. I used the raw PSMSL data that you get from the PSMSL website http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/ Here’s the link to data for Station #1, Brest France: http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/rlr.annual.data/1.rlrdata It's not a small sample, there are over 1200 tide gages listed in the PSMSL I used them all. Church and White only used about 500 and then selected only portions of the data according to their criteria in Church et al. (2004) that I don't have access to without paying money. What this graphic shows is the difference between my straight forward analysis by grouping raw data by coastline as opposed to using an editing criteria on the raw data first. Church and White then took that edited data and further applied it to a gridded map using the latitude and longitude coordinates given in the PSMSL. But the raw data was edited first. I think it's the editing criteria that produces the difference in the time lines above. I doubt that the application of gridded data has much to do with it. I agree that some of the data is out of whack, if you look up Cyprus in the PSMSL for example, you will find that it's way off. But I have no idea why Church and White edited station #1234:
      Station ID 1234 Station Name SIROS Data available 1969 - 2009 Data used 1974.042 - 2009.958 Data not used 1969; 1971; 1972 Change in slope +1.8 mm/yr.

    Maybe some one who has plunked down the cash for Church et al. (2004) can summarize what the editing criteria is.

    Response:

    [DB] If you were perchance to take the attitude of genuinely trying to research this instead of ascribing untowards motives to those publishing research and if you perchance were to genuinely ask for help when stuck instead of just airing complaints about paywalls, then perhaps someone might help you.

    Like pointing out that Church et al 2004 was available for free opus download from the publisher, Journal of Climate:

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282004%29017%3C2609%3AEOTRDO%3E2.0.CO%3B2

    Or that the data for Church et al 2004 appears to be available for free opus download at:

    ftp://ftp.marine.csiro.au/pub/white/recons_1950_2001_ib_gia_remseas.nc.gz

    Briefly, this data set is

    • near-global (65°S to 65°N) from January 1950 to December 2001
      on a 1° × 1° × 1 month grid
    • seasonal signal removed
    • inverse barometer correction made
    • GIA (Mitrovica) correction made to tide gauge data

    I'm certain you have been doing the above per established standards in your analysis.

    Total time to research this:  6 minutes

    Total time to write this up:   7 minutes

  47. Michaels Mischief #2: Opposing Climate Solutions
    Something is wrong when the same, small number of practicing climate scientists--who disbelieve AGW--also spend considerable time attempting to discredit emerging (infant) technology. It alerts me to the possibility they have an agenda.
  48. Eric (skeptic) at 19:33 PM on 31 August 2011
    Michaels Mischief #2: Opposing Climate Solutions
    Re #4, According to http://www.cleantechinvestor.com/portal/wind-energy/5374-building-brazils-wind-business.html wind was bid at $93 per MWh. The quoted price includes profit for the generators. Subsidies appear to be one-time and limited (transmission lines provided by the govt)
  49. CO2 is just a trace gas
    30 Joe Lalonde: That's where doing the physics comes in. You have to run through the numbers... They show that waste heat is not a major global contributor, but CO2 absorption is. Avoiding the physics wherever requierd is a great talent of the 'skeptics'.
  50. CO2 is just a trace gas
    And yet the heat produced to create CO2 is of no consequence. It is a contributer. In many areas and forms from absorbed in the day time or form stored in liquids such as car fluids vasts amounts are released in heat(BTU's).
    Moderator Response: [mc] Refer such discussion to waste heat thread; we're talking ~1% waste heat, 99% greenhouse warming here.

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