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Tom Curtis at 18:20 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
DougCotton @129: 1) You may find the following two illustrations from NASA useful:
Both where designed by Simon Loeb using flux estimates supplied by Norman Loeb from the CERES satellite. Both post date 2008, so can reasonably be viewed as current.
You will notice that the first diagram is modeled on that by Trenberth et al, 2009 (Fig 1 in the main article above). The second cancels out opposing terms to show net fluxes. Thus the surface flux is the 117% surface radiation - 100% back radiation for a net 17% surface flux.
Because they are sourced from the same person, and are transparently related, there is no question of any contradiction between the two diagrams. Given that it is worthwhile noting that the NASA diagrams show a net 58 W/m^2 surface flux, compared to the net 63 W/m^2 from Trenberth et al. NASA shows 17 W/m^2 for sensible heat and 85 W/m^2 for evapo/transpiration, compared to 17 and 80 for Trenberth et al. NASA shows 398 W/m^2 for the surface radiation compared to 399 by Trenberth et al.
2) O2 does apparently emit IR radiation, but it is very weak compared to the main GHG, and so weak it cannot be distinguished from noise in observed spectra of outgoing longwave radiation or back radiation.
For the most part, it and N2 are warmed and cooled by collisions with the main GHGs. According to the equipartition theorem(PDF), the energy of a gas will be equally distributed between the various degrees of freedom of the molecules of the gas, where a degree of freedom is one of the three spatial axis, or one of the vibrational or rotational mode of the molecules of the gas. Importantly this is a statistical property, so that individual molecules may have a greater vector in the x axis than in the y or z, or have more energy in a vibrational mode than as kinetic energy.
When CO2 absorbs a photon, one of its rotational modes has a surfeit of energy. Normally, in a short time it will collide with another molecule resulting in that excess energy being redistributed between the two molecules, and amongst their degrees of freedom. The net effect is that each gains kinetic energy, raising the temperature of the gas. This is true regardless of the molecule that collides, so that O2 and N2 can gain energy this way as well.
Conversely, sometimes a collision will result in a rotational mode of CO2 having excess energy. When that happens the CO2 can emit a photon, effectively cooling not just itself, but the gas of which it is a part. It is in this way that the ozone layer is cooled, with energy being absorbed by O3, but emitted by both CO2 and O3 (which also radiates strongly in the IR).
3) Yes. Trenberth, Fasullo and Khiel 2009. In addition to developing their own energy balance, they cite the other major efforts to achieve the same thing, and list the other results in tabular form.
4) We feel warming effect of the sunlight because it's direct effect at noon in the tropics is approximately 1300 W/m^2, or nearly four times the average strength of the back radiation. More importantly, it is significantly stronger than the energy we radiate because of our internal temperature of around 500 W/m^2 (or perhaps a little lower, I'm not sure of the emissivity of skin). In contrast, in the cool of the evening, we would not be able to tell be feel if our hand was in direct sunlight because its effective radiation is much less. Likewise, we do not feel the 333 W/m^2 of backradiation because it is less than the aproximatey 500 W/m^2 we radiate, so the net radiation is outward, thus cooling us.
5) This question is based on the incorrect premise that the base figures from Trenberth can be simply compared with the net radiation figures from NASA. If you want to make the comparison, either use the NASA figures from my first figure in answer to question (1), or convert Trenberth et al's figures to net figures by subracting the back radiation from the surface radiation.
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ianash at 18:12 PM on 12 August 2011Two more reviews of Climate Change Denial
OT but for those interested in seeing some of the most common denialist memes 'in the raw', go to this website. They are trying to find the most popular climate change questions from the public: The Climate Agenda Andrew Bolts' minions have hijacked the voting (predictable) but the interesting thing is the comments attached to each question (yes tinfoil hat required). -
DougCotton at 17:47 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
To all: I do want to say that I really do appreciate the time you have put into writing posts in response to mine. I'm the first to admit that I have learnt things from some of these, and can appreciate the position some of you are in and the fact that there appears to be a wealth of peer-reviewed papers and claims that data fits the models etc. But I want you to understand why I am still very much in doubt about the projections of future temperatures, if nothing else. So I list these points and would genuinely welcome any well thought out answers that are clearly based on Physics. 1. I am still convinced, even from my basic knowledge of statistics, that the statistical evidence for natural cycles in the climate records is compelling. Such cycles are overlapping (eg 934 year, 60 year, 11 to 13 year and 39 month and correlate with planetary orbits) and they can at times all rise at once, which is what happened leading up to El Nino, itself probably caused by the simultaneous maxima. 2. The cycles are fully sufficient in themselves to explain the observed rises (and falls) last century, as well as the current significant reduction in the gradient. 3. The very regular patterns (nodes) in NASA sea-surface temperatures at the same times in each of the last 7 or 8 years show that climate is tightly controlled (within 0.2 degrees on a world-wide daily basis) and so the data does not indicate random noise from a somewhat higher upward trend. This year (2011) looks like it will certainly have a lower mean (at sea surface) than 2003 eight years earlier. Two end points don't make a trend, but a full year's data at each end does let me say there has been no accumulation of heat evident in this data in 8 years. 4. For long-term warming, heat has to build up somewhere. The models do not show where they expect such a build up. But it cannot have any effect on sea temperatures if it happens in the mid or upper atmosphere, and it cannot last up there anyway because any warmer air will cool quite easily. 6. So, if it is to build up, it has to happen in the oceans and continental crust somehow. But I now don't see any way that this is likely from solar insolation. Instead, I say the temperature gradient from the core can affect both land and ocean temperatures if the core temperature varies even just a few degrees out of about 5,700 deg.K, or if frictional heat from crustal Earth tides varies. It would be too much of a coincidence that the projection of that gradient (starting at least as deep as the start of the liquid core) just happened to "break out" at the surface at about the observed temperature on a calm night - all over the world. I say it is supporting the temperature and physics can show that you don't need a high rate of heat flow to do so - just low conduction rates as in rock etc. 7. Basic physics and experience tells me that the near-stationary layer (say 1mm in height above the surface) is always very close to the temperature found just underground in calm conditions late at night. This could not be achieved by radiation and so does require conduction / diffusion (call it what you like.) If the temperature is the same, net upward radiation is restricted, if not temporarily halted. 9. I don't observe (nor do others) any physical evidence of back radiation of the order of double that of direct sunlight. I cannot explain with physics any reason for more than 50% of the emitted photons returning to the surface in each iteration, and the limit of 1 + half + quarter + .. is of course 2, meaning at the most feedback can only double the initial upward radiation. 10. ( -Snip- ). So try proving something for yourslef: place a thermometer in the long shadows of a building late afternoon where it can capture most radiation from the sky. After measuring, shield it with a sheet of plywood covered with aluminium foil. Measure again; remove the foil and measure again. Repeat the experiment in the sun and compare. I am going to try it soon. Are you prepared to do likewise? Then explain the results. Again, if anyone can objectively answer any of the above concerns, I will read with interest.Response:[DB] Your number 10 is in complete violation of the Comments Policy. Out of respect to Tom and others who are engaging you, I merely have excised the offending portion rather than deleting the entire comment.
Since you admit you cannot show with physics where the misunderstandins lie, you also cannot then attribute differences of opinions you have with established tools like models (which are built on established physics) to malfeasance on the part of others. Beyond what I have already written, it shows ideology rather than science is propelling you and reflects poorly upon your reasoning abilities.
Since I'm sure your intent on being here is to either teach others science or to learn science from others, please try to keep personal ideologies from colouring your comments. Future violations of this nature will cause your entire comment to be deleted.
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Tom Curtis at 15:16 PM on 12 August 2011Climate Denial Video #3: Polluters Use Same Tactics As Tobacco Industry
flandestiny @15, no. He is trying to suggest that 32/31,487ths is approximately half of 75/77ths by carefully excluding the denominator. -
DougCotton at 14:50 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
#121 (continued) The link to the image (at the end) was for a plot of nasa sea surface data showing every day for the period from January 2003 to June 2011 with all years overlapping so that you could see the constant temperatures very nearly the same on corresponding days in each of the 7 or 8 years. You can do the plot yourself on the nasa site of course. -
flandestiny at 14:47 PM on 12 August 2011Climate Denial Video #3: Polluters Use Same Tactics As Tobacco Industry
are you seriously comparing 32 vs 77 in your "math" experiment? -
pbjamm at 14:43 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
DougCotton@129 I have just edited the Wikipedia page on Earth's Energy Budget to include your numbers on O2 and N2 radiation. So configurations, your theory is now substantiated. Much easier than having it in reviewed journals. -
DougCotton at 14:40 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
#126: 1. The assumptions about the split of the heat transferring from the surface to the atmosphere are clearly set out - even more so in Wikipedia who still treat them as current. Maybe Trembert should get them to accept his figures. 2. They do clearly include a reasonable figure for the diffusion I believe does happen: "7% is transferred back into the atmosphere by heated rising air, called Sensible heat flux" (Wiki) 3. I am questioning the Trembert evaporation figure which is discussed in #129 (5) -
DougCotton at 14:29 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Re #125: Tom: 1. I know you don't like Wikipedia, but they do at least set out the NASA data (which they still treat as current it appears) in an orderly fashion. If you have a similar example for the net figures for the Trembert diagram it would help avoid some ambiguity therein. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Radiation_Budget 2. One thing they say is "15% is transferred into the atmosphere by radiation, then reradiated into space" and "atmosphere" here would surely include O2 and N2. If, as you appear to say, O2 never emits even a single photon at a time, there how exactly can it get cooler? What happens to the energy it carries? There has to be some O2 in the very cold layers. 3. Is there any review paper combining all radiation data and coming up with a world mean close to that 333 figure for backradiation? 4. I also want to know why it is that we apparently cannot feel the back radiation which has about double the energy of direct solar insolation. 5. The NASA data indicates that 45.1% (23/51) of the heat transferring to the atmosphere from the surface/ocean does so by evaporation. In contrast, the corresponding figure for Tremberth is 19.4% being 80/(396+17.) What has caused such a dramatic change in data these last few years? -
DougCotton at 14:03 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Re #121: Mouncounter: We will have to agree to disagree on some things such as whether diffusion occurs between water surfaces and the atmosphere. I feel you miss my point regarding temperature variations: one exception is sufficient to prove that exceptions can happen. Maybe you'd like to explain why, with varying CO2 levels and varying weather conditions Singapore still gets up to at least 31 deg.C each day. The extra warmth must be from solar insolation (above the 25 deg.C ocean and underground temperature) but why does that maximum never vary from being about 6 to 7 degrees above the minimum, never 4 some days or 9 on others? Why are the minimums also only ever 25 or 26 deg.C, never 23 or 28 on any day ever? And, finally, you still haven't explained why the temperature of the air just above the ocean (sea) surface is so constant every day, not just in monthly or annual means. -snip-Moderator Response: You have been asked before to stop with your shameless promotion of your web-site. SkS is concerned with educating and informing people about climate science, not misinforming them. Thank you in advance for your cooperation. -
scaddenp at 13:45 PM on 12 August 2011Skeptical Science Helps Students Debunk Climate Myths
So, you would suggest that students find out about the energy balance of the planet by reprocessing the original data rather than reading Trenberth et al 2009? You must have some pretty impressive computer power at school. I dont think of either Skpsci or WUWT as sources of data but one is a good index to the published science papers on climate subjects and the other is index pseudo-science "papers" and blog rants that most certainly could never be published. It would be a mistake to see the sites as simply expressing different sides of the argument. My earlier assassination of the English language (why I dont write much) was meant to highlight that in science questions, opinion is conditional on data and changes when data changes. This is different from non-scientific questions like "should murderers face capital punishment" where the mode of argument and belief are different. I think it is extremely dangerous to use thought-modes from this kind of discourse in science inquiry and would hope students learnt that distinction. -
Stephen Baines at 13:36 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Tom, phil and muon, I'm glad Trenberth does not have to deal with what you guys deal with. I am sorry, however, that you do have to deal with it! Sometimes I think he should step in just to see what it's like! Still, you guys show amazing patience here. Mind blowing actually. -
Ger at 13:10 PM on 12 August 2011Christy Crock #7: Expensive and inaccessible (Part 2)
Energy does not get lost. Old term for unusable energy is more appropriated: Anergy. And that can be catch by processes like ORC nowadays. Any truly RE source (that is, the device could be made with the help of RE generated energy and is fed by a replenishable source or very long term source like a sun) might be inefficient in its first instantiation: it is not going to harm anything except some (man-made) economical systems. -
scaddenp at 13:08 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Dc - I think you will find the most people here and all climate scientists are very familiar with the concept of conduction thank you. This is well covered in textbooks like "Global Physical Climatology" or "Principles of Planetary Climate". These would be a good place to start for what climate scientists actually take as given, rather than what you seem think climate scientists assume. Now perhaps you might like to explain why you prefer the outdated 1998 NASA diagram rather than the most up to date data in 2009 paper from above using the latest NASA data? -
apiratelooksat50 at 13:02 PM on 12 August 2011Skeptical Science Helps Students Debunk Climate Myths
scaddenp at 6 Your syntax is a little off (it happens - I do it often enough), so I am not sure about your first sentence. When one studies an issue and forms an opinion, then you are choosing what to believe. They aren't tasked to believe an opinion from another site such as SKS, the are tasked to develop their own opinion from the original data source. That was plainly stated in my earlier post. SKS and WUWT are both sources of links to original data. -
Tom Curtis at 12:57 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
DougCotton @122, we are making progress. You have retreated from confident assertions of falsehoods in despite of the data to pure obscurantism. It follows, of course, from nobody knowing, that you do not know, so your claims on your website have now been admitted by you to be without basis. However, you are wrong in your assertion that nobody knows, and that there is not enough data. As I have previously indicated (see 110 above), there are large data bases of measurements around the world of both the IR back radiation and the IR surface radiation. These have been made under a large variety of surface, weather and climactic conditions. They have been compared with model predictions, and the models have performed well. There are also large databases of the radiative properties of various gases (Hitran) and surface materials (see 119). These can be combined with known surface conditions to predict both the surface radiation and back radiation, and indeed have been in the models I just mentioned. Consequently these values can be known, and are known within a range of plus or minus 5% (according to Trenberth et al 2009). They are certainly known in sufficient detail to show that your claims about the IPCC are simply false. And as you have just tacitly admitted, you made those claims not based on evidence but simply on prejudice. Nor is your obscurantism justified with respect to O2 and N2 emissions. The full range of the spectrum has been scanned by various instruments and the emission peaks you claim to exist do not. Here is a shorter wavelength range of the spectrum, including the range needed for photons to have 100 times the energy from the peak CO2 band at atmospheric temperatures (0.15 micrometers):
You'll notice the complete absence of an O2 or N2 spike. In fact, the only contribution by O2 is an absorption band in the incoming sunlight. As can be seen from the following black body radiation curves, in order to radiate at that wave length, Oxygen would have to be at a temperature of several thousand degrees Kelvin:
At typical atmospheric temperatures, radiation at that wavelength is effectively non-existent:
So, not only is their direct data refuting your claim that radiation by O2 and N2 eclipses that from CO2, but your claim is in direct conflict with the laws of black body radiation.
The last diagram was generated a now obsolete, but publicly available version of Modtran, which will calculate the radiation flux upwards or downwards at a variety of altitudes for a variety of conditions. It is obsolete (circa 1990 version) and so is only accurate to about plus or minus 10%, but it will give you a far better idea of what actually occurs than you are so far managing.
It does not, for example, restrict itself to a single layer atmosphere model as you do in your absurd calculations.
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apiratelooksat50 at 12:54 PM on 12 August 2011Skeptical Science Helps Students Debunk Climate Myths
DB at 5 First, it is not a student's homework assignment page, it is a link to a pragmatic representation to combat the one-sided media coverage they are exposed to via the local newspaper and internet sites. Second, most students never visit a teacher's website (at my school at least). The website is a district requirement. Most of my students do not have internet access at home. We are a district with a high poverty level and the host of issues that go along with that and broken families.Response:[DB] "it is a link to a pragmatic representation to combat the one-sided media coverage"
Pragmatic? One-sided? The words are English but from your usage it is obvious you have little understanding of their meaning.
This is truly a momentous day. First, EtR abandons all pretense of honest broker and reveals himself for the dissembler he is. Now you. You try to defend your relabeling of Inhofe's "A Skeptic's Guide To Debunking Glabal Warming Alarmism" as "A Skeptics Guide to Global Warming" under the weak pretense that "most students never visit a teacher's website"?
You are entrusted with your students' minds, can you not see how utterly bereft of moral certitude and integrity your position and excuse is?
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Ger at 12:52 PM on 12 August 2011Christy Crock #7: People Need Fossil Fuel Energy (Part 1)
I would replace "coal-belching power plants" by smoke belching power plants. Building a "char-coal belching" power plant would actually have a negative carbon emission per kWhr generated energy. at #1 Paul I would say appropriated technology, not low tech. Low tech is associated with poor efficiency. Most of the simple technology (cookstoves, fine bladed thin saws to name a 2) is available in a a form with much higher efficiency thanks to better understanding of the physics involved. Devices are just a very little bit more complicated or in some cases even simpler. at #3. Catprog. Access to energy means also access to (western like) health services. I think that has more to do with longer life than anything else. Statistics are nice if the model is obeying a certain distributions, otherwise linking up parameters the statistical way is more like educated guesswork. -
scaddenp at 12:51 PM on 12 August 2011Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
Steve, note the publication date of V&L. Note that it covers 0-2000m and note that covers period with Argo fully deployed. -
muoncounter at 12:48 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
DougCotton#123: "Why do you keep talking about means?" Your diffusion model was based on a geothermal gradient, was it not? Surely that is fairly constant over more than a few days; after all, that was the rationale you gave for Singapore's year-round constant temperature. Now you look at just 7 days of data from another location and conclude that a difference there is significant? Unacceptable by any standard. What I have done is present evidence that it is the near constancy of insolation that dominates: Locations near the equator have the same annual temperature range (empirically demonstrated) because they receive nearly the same amount of solar energy year round (accepted fact; a moderately sophisticated calculation that you can do on your own). If your diffusion model made any sense whatsoever, high latitude locations would have the same annual range because they must cool by diffusion from the same subsurface temperature -- and most certainly you must agree they do not (again empirically demonstrated). "Perhaps now when you understand the small scale of this" Perhaps you misunderstood my reference to 'experimental scale.' Of course, molecular collisions take place in very small spaces; that does not at all mean that the ocean responds in the same manner as a bucket of water. Mass does not scale in the same manner as linear distances, that is why thermal conductivity may dominate for 1 kg of water in a metal bucket while it does not for an ocean. Here is an example from the field of thermal engineering demonstrating the importance of both radiation and conductivity in scaled experiments: The effect of radiative heat transfer between walls was studie[d] and shown to be similar to the effect of heat loss from the burner to its ambient. It is important that the models must include radiative heat transfer when calibrating a macroscale models which will be down-scaled to small scale devices. You will notice that when I present data or information that are not in common knowledge, I cite the sources. I do not appeal to wikipedia if I can find a more authoritative source. I challenge you to show data and research from similarly credible sources - peer reviewed whenever possible - that support your 'diffusion will prevail' model. Enough with these bucket and balloon analogies; they prove nothing. You cannot overturn solid scientific research with the photo of a lamp. Until you can meet that challenge, you have very little to add to this discussion. -
scaddenp at 12:46 PM on 12 August 2011Earth's Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow
Getting serious action anywhere is mostly inhibited by an electorate on the US which is prepared to believe almost anything rather than the implications of the published science. -
Composer99 at 12:42 PM on 12 August 2011The Ridley Riddle Part Three: Like a Northern Rock
As the collapse of the bank shows, the assets that were growing could scarcely be said to be high quality. -
scaddenp at 12:42 PM on 12 August 2011Skeptical Science Helps Students Debunk Climate Myths
I would be horrified if you were directing science classes to get make their minds "on what to believe" (awful choice of word) in a science question on the basis of opinion expressed anywhere. This is not the same as forming an opinion on a political matter. Instead, I would hope that science students make up their minds on the basis of reading published science papers. Skepsci is a good index of these, WUWT is not. That is the difference between the sites. -
Albatross at 12:20 PM on 12 August 2011Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
Steve Case, It is really not clear what you are trying to say or how it pertains to the post in question. Are you trying to argue that the global temperatures has not warmed as much as expected since 1900 or so? But if you are claiming that, you would have to use a period of time which means that the trend over that cherry-picked time window would not be statistically significant. So a no win for you. Let us deal with your claims about global temperatures first, and then we can address your attempts to argue your case by misinterpreting and cherry-picking the the OHC data. -
DougCotton at 12:01 PM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Mouncounter #121: Having lived 20 years of my life close to Sydney Harbour (though well back from the coast) I can assure you that even the Lane Cove River had a moderating effect on shore temperatures. And flat ground such as an airstrip with water on both sides would get plenty of cross wind. We are obviously talking about light breezes blowing air from not too far away over the water. Why do you keep talking about means? In Singapore the maximum is practically never outside the one degree range 31 to 32 deg.C. So I only have to show a variation of, say, 7 degrees the maximums in one week somewhere else to demonstrate my point. Obviously inland cities get affected by winds blowing from different directions such as from a desert area. And yes I do refer to even just 1 mm from the interface of ocean and atmosphere because that is exactly where diffusion happens - look up "Heat Transfer" on Wiki - 2nd paragraph where it refers to 1mm. Diffusion (or "conduction" if you prefer) is a mollecular interchange as energy from electrons in one molecule transfers to the other (cooler) molecule due to a physical collision, albeit it usually a "grazing" brush past when gases are involved, rather than direct impact with the nucleus. It has to happen, simply because molecules will collide. Perhaps now when you understand the small scale of this you will see why it happens the same way in a balloon, a bucket of water or with my hot lamp cover in the photo on my site. -
jonicol at 11:57 AM on 12 August 2011Earth's Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow
Mandas is right. The possibility of persuading China, India, Russia and the US to actually cut carbon dioxide emissions is zilch. The economic problems in Europe and the well known difficulties they have had in carbon dioxide trading would indicate that they will be going nowhere fast, particularly if Germany continues with the threst to close down nuclear power - which I don't actually believe will happen once the flurry over Fukushima has faded out of memories. Obviosly what is really beeded is to maintain strong world economies which will be capapble of taking whatever appropriate action is necessary to prepare for any variations in the future, be they warming or as now apears more likely, a period of cooling. Adaptatation is the only sensible way to consider the future wihout needing to reduce the standard of living in these poorer countries. Australia's contibution from 5%, a mere 0.001 C as a worst case scenario is not going to help. -
apiratelooksat50 at 11:55 AM on 12 August 2011Skeptical Science Helps Students Debunk Climate Myths
AT at 3 I find your comment highly insulting. Critical thinking can be defined as: Reasonable reflective thinking focused on deciding what to believe or do. I push the envelope in my school district because I often diverge from the curriculum because I want my students to leave my class at the end of the year know how to "think" and express their thoughts. And, my students routinely score well on end of course testing even though I "don't teach to the test". When my students are researching any subject, I direct them to the source. Depending on the subject, that could be NOAA, USDA, USGS, USACE, HADCRUT, USEPA, University of Colorado, etc... I don't direct my students to WUWT or SKS. And, we prefer they don't use Wikipedia either. AGW is a polarizing issue and I would rather them study the real data and come to conclusions on their own. One site is pro AGW and one site is anti AGW. If they find either site on their own - it's okay. When I present the subject of AGW (or any other), I am very careful not to tip my hand to my opinion. They are shown resources, videos, and powerpoints both pro and con. Then they read, research and write. You may, or may not, know it, but I am in a personal e-mail dialogue with Sphaerica and he has actually changed my position on the anthropogenic contributions of CO2 to the rising atmospheric concentrations. You can look at the list below and I can tell you that 1-6 came into play on that. A critical thinker: 1. Is open-minded and mindful of alternatives 2. Desires to be, and is, well-informed 3. Judges well the credibility of sources 4. Identifies reasons, assumptions, and conclusions 5. Asks appropriate clarifying questions 6. Judges well the quality of an argument, including its reasons, assumptions, evidence, and their degree of support for the conclusion 7. Can well develop and defend a reasonable position regarding a belief or an action, doing justice to challenges 8. Formulates plausible hypotheses 9. Plans and conducts experiments well 10. Defines terms in a way appropriate for the context 11. Draws conclusions when warranted – but with caution 12. Integrates all of the above aspects of critical thinking So, before you toss off a flippant comment like that, please think twice about what you are saying. If I told my classes to research global warming on AGW only from WUWT, you would scream that it was biased. Just as the opposite is true if the only source is SKS.Response:[DB] "I am very careful not to tip my hand to my opinion."
So you wouldn't dream of posting Inhofe's "A Skeptic's Guide To Debunking Glabal Warming Alarmism" but calling it "A Skeptics Guide to Global Warming" on your student's homework assignment page?
Many such as you propound false equivalency. "Blind guides" is a term for them.
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muoncounter at 11:41 AM on 12 August 2011Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
Steve Case#17, Old news. You are referring to a report dated 2007. That would mean 4 years (at most) of data to substantiate this 'cooling.' Hardly what we call 'statistically significant'. Perhaps they meant 'instantaneous cooling.' Look at the graph; it's not cooling. -
DougCotton at 11:38 AM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Tom. There is nowhere near enough empirical data on a world-wide, round the clock, year-round basis to confirm the magnitude of mean world-wide downward radiation which, by the way, should include O2 and N2 high frequency (high energy) downward radiation. (This is off the graph in your Figure 1, but if you look up the ratio of the frequencies at which photons can be emitted for O2, N2 and CO2 etc, then that will be the ratio of the energy in each photon.) So no one really can say for certain what the proportions are for radiation, conduction, latent heat etc for the heat leaving the crust. I prefer the 1998 NASA diagram with the additional calculations I have done for theoretical feedback. In that regard, I consider that there is no greater probability that those emitted photons that "get through the maze" will reach the surface than that they will go to space. The maze is thinner above, so maybe even more than 50% get to space. I know there can be a chain reaction, but it is the last emission in the chain that still has at least 50% chance of heading for space. My "two thirds" of the heat in O2 and N2 came from the NASA figures where I have assumed that the latent heat will nearly always end up in N2 and O2 simply because of the dominance of such molecules. And, yes, this energy will be released in the form of photons - how else can we get a balance at the top of the atmosphere? Your calculations on emissivity are irrelevant when there is an equilibrium state between the surface and the immediate few millimetres of the atmosphere, simply because if the ground is at the same temperature as the air it is not going to emit photons and make itself cooler than the air. (Strictly speaking, there can be an equal interchange of photons, but the net outflow will be zero.) You cannot apply blackbody physics when you are not relating it to the boundary of the blackbody but to an internal interface. It can only be applied when "looking" at the whole Earth system, including the atmosphere, from outer space. Finally, you will note in my calculations of feedback (linked above) that, if the assumption that 50% of photons go up and 50% go down is about right, then, when we consider a few iterations of "up and down trips" then 50% of all the energy transferred from the surface to the atmosphere will come back down again and start the second iteration. Then 50% of that comes down etc, so we end up in the limit with just double the amount going up. This applies no matter what the proportion of radiation, because half of whatever heat transfers to air molecules by other means will also be emitted back after each upward trip. You can see the simple geometric progression in my calculations. And the most important thing in all this is that the emissions from O2 and N2 (and about 50 other gases in the atmosphere I understand) need also to be considered.Response:[DB] Your comments would at least take on the semblance of an argument if you were to use paragraphs. Just sayin'.
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muoncounter at 11:26 AM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
DougCotton#120 "pretty much like Singapore." Yes, Lake Victoria's thermal inertia is an apt analogy for that of the Pacific Ocean. "Boende 13' 0" South - where maximum temperatures range from 22 to 29 deg.C over the next 7 days" FYI Boende, Zaire is at 2N latitude, but why quibble over a few degrees? However, 7 days of data do not represent the average, which varies from 73 to 75F over the course of a year. The website I cite uses 14 years of data (what we expect to see when we are talking about climate). Taking 7 days out of a year, let alone 14 years, is known as cherrypicking - with a capital C. (Of course, you've already done that by basing your entire conduction/diffusion/thermal gradient idea entirely on Singapore - 1 data point. Even Steve G would be ashamed of that!) Yet again, at the equator the consistency of insolation dominates all other factors discussed so far. "The laws of Physics apply just as much in a room as in the small zone I was talking about a few millimetres above and below the surface of an ocean." Indeed: in this case, delta Q = m C delta T might be relevant. Experiments must be scaled: Small objects (balloons, buckets of water) have large surface area compared to the mass they represent and thus do not scale appropriately. Observations based on a bucket or a pot or a lamp do not represent what happens in the ocean or the atmosphere. I still do not understand this fascination with a few mm +/- sea level. But that is not relevant. Thus far, all data presented here (including some you've presented) contradict your views. And last I looked, it was still "a capital mistake to theorize before one has data." -- S. Holmes -
Steve Case at 11:20 AM on 12 August 2011Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
Looks like my link doesn't want to work, but you can Google the AR4 Chapter 5 Executive summary easy enough It says: The oceans are warming. Over the period 1961 to 2003, global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10°C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. Consistent with the Third Assessment Report (TAR), global ocean heat content (0–3,000 m) has increased during the same period, equivalent to absorbing energy at a rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 W m–2 globally averaged over the Earth’s surface. Two-thirds of this energy is absorbed between the surface and a depth of 700 m. Global ocean heat content observations show considerable interannual and inter-decadal variability superimposed on the longer-term trend. Relative to 1961 to 2003, the period 1993 to 2003 has high rates of warming but since 2003 there has been some cooling. -
Steve Case at 11:17 AM on 12 August 2011Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
- scaddenp at 09:52 AM on 12 August, 2011
"but since 2003 there has been some cooling."
There has? Please see here especially Von Schuckmann and La Treon.
muoncounter at 10:57 AM on 12 August, 2011
scaddenp#15,
This particular meme needs to be aggressively rejected.
Trends are 0.14 C/decade (UAH) and 0.17 C/decade (GIStemp); there is no such cooling.
Tamino is far better at this; it would be nice if he updated his graph.
Tell it to the IPCC:
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muoncounter at 10:57 AM on 12 August 2011Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
scaddenp#15, This particular meme needs to be aggressively rejected.Trends are 0.14 C/decade (UAH) and 0.17 C/decade (GIStemp); there is no such cooling. Tamino is far better at this; it would be nice if he updated his graph.
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Tom Curtis at 10:56 AM on 12 August 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
scaddenp @1117, the purpose is obvious. His claims are being refuted on the other threads very convincingly. He needs to thread hop so that he can hopefully gull some naive reader who does not see the counter arguments. No matter how much he thread hops, however, he still needs to answer some questions. Why, for example, does he assert that atmospheric radiation from O2 and N2 eclipses that from CO2 even though he has seen no data to that effect, and there is data to the contrary:
And why does he insist surface radiation is so low that, given the Stefan-Boltzmann law, the surface emissivity for IR radiation must be 0.18, even though the surface is known to have an emissivity greater than 0.9 in those wavelengths?
Indeed, the crucial question he needs to answer is why we are required at every turn in his theory to take his mere assertion in preference to well established scientific laws, and copious empirical observations that contradict it?
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Catprog at 10:39 AM on 12 August 2011Christy Crock #7: People Need Fossil Fuel Energy (Part 1)
I would actually say at the bottom more energy = longer life. look at < 2 : 46 - 82 but 2-4: 1 country of 52 and then 64-82 I think this difference is things like small wind generators and basic sanitation. -
DougCotton at 10:33 AM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Muoncounter #117: Not only do you link a site with mean monthly data, rather than individual daily ranges, but you pick Entebbe Airport about 3km from the large Lake Victoria and itself on a peninsula with water on each side - pretty much like Singapore. Try some in the middle of South America or the first one I picked today in Africa - Boende 13' 0" South - where maximum temperatures range from 22 to 29 deg.C over the next 7 days - fairly different from the 31 and 32 deg.C in Singapore every day of the year, even when cloudy or wet. http://www.foreca.com/Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo/Boende?add=100218680 Regarding Galveston, you have not quoted air temperatures within a few millimetres of the top of the ocean as I referred to, and nor is it in the middle of a large ocean. The laws of Physics apply just as much in a room as in the small zone I was talking about a few millimetres above and below the surface of an ocean. Take a bucket of sea water into a room if you wish, heat it and measure the temperatures just above and below the surface if you want a closer simulation. The energy is transferred by conduction (which is basically the same as diffusion - see Wiki) as your experiment will prove. Obviously that leaves far less energy then to be radiated. Though you might like to say 80% plus or minus 20% by diffusion if you wish. (I am conscious of the fact that some readers may not have a scientific background and so some lay terms may make my website and these posts more understandable.) -
Tom Curtis at 10:29 AM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
DougCotton, as I pointed out in 110, for the Earth's surface to emit as little thermal radiation as you claim it does, it would need an emissivity of 0.18 in the 4 to 16 micrometer wavelength range. Perhaps you could point to the suitably low emissivities from the following common surface materials:
Pleas note that with an emissivity of 0.9, at 273 degrees K, the surface would emit approximately 280 W/m^2 of radiation, of which at most 40 W/M^2 escapes to space. Would you care to explain what happens to the other 240 Watts?
Or do you believe that is an unfair question in that your mere assertion is expected to trump all scientific data mounted against your theories? (Which seems to be the principle you operate on.)
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Tom Curtis at 10:18 AM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
DougCotton @113, you not only said that O2 and N2 do not emit many photons, you also claimed that they carried two thirds of the energy released from the surface, and that they emit that energy. Indeed, you where very specific:"Also, since two thirds of the heat energy in the surface/oceans went into other air molecules (outnumbering CO2 by 2,500 : 1) there is still about half of that coming back, eclipsing that from CO2."
Further, you specify that O2 and N2 "... must release the energy in the form of photons at least when they get close to absolute zero". These beliefs form a mutually contradictory set with the laws of physics. In fact so does the belief that photons emitted by O2 or N2 at near absolute zero should have "... 100 times the energy of a low energy photon from CO2". And while your first sentence is not technically contradictory (I did misread "many"), for each of the two beliefs asserted in it, the probability of that belief being true given the other one is very low. Equally importantly, this is another of your evidence free assertions. Put simply, you just made it up. To demonstrate, consider this graph of the observed backradiation:
The area under each peak gives the power radiated at that wavelength. I can clearly see the CO2 peak (and a secondary CO2 peak not labelled at a wave number of 800). Could you kindly point out the O2 or N2 peaks, or provide a similar spectrum which shows them. It should be easy to find as, according to you, there radiation eclipses that of CO2.
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scaddenp at 09:52 AM on 12 August 2011Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
"but since 2003 there has been some cooling." There has? Please see here especially Von Schuckmann and La Treon. -
Daniel J. Andrews at 09:52 AM on 12 August 2011The Ridley Riddle Part Three: Like a Northern Rock
I also recommend readers click on the link to George Monbiot's article, which provides a rather devastating take-down of some of Dr. Ridley's other baseless claims. -
sidd at 09:50 AM on 12 August 2011The Last Interglacial Part Three - Melting Ice and Rising Seas
Mr. Chris G. pointed to a paper by Katz and Worster at http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/466/2118/1597.full.pdf+html which I found fascinating. They do a 3-D calculation of the effect of a narrow retrograde valley embedded in a prograde slope under an ice sheet debouching to the ocean, and they find that such valleys can destabilize the entire ice sheet ! Also they find that PIG is melting faster than their model indicates... sidd -
scaddenp at 09:46 AM on 12 August 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Doug, what are you trying to achieve here, by jumping to another thread and repeating the same assertions (that "NASA" and "IPCC" are in contradiction), when this has already been explained and referenced for you on other threads? We have measurements of DLR. Greenhouse theory predicts its magnitude and spectrum. What does your theory predict this measurement to be? -
Stevo at 09:37 AM on 12 August 2011Climate Denial Video #4: The favourite weapon of deniers, cherry picking
Albatross @29, thankyou! "Consilience" is the word I've been looking for. Multiple strands of evidence from varied sources all leading to the same conclusion, as opposed to 'our club members all agree with other". -
Stevo at 09:21 AM on 12 August 2011The Ridley Riddle Part Three: Like a Northern Rock
Andy, Iloved your use of "hockey stick", "alarmist" and "hide the decline". So very, very apt. -
muoncounter at 08:56 AM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
DougC#116 "Inland areas at the equator in Africa do not have steady temperatures " I suggest you look at some data before making any more unsubstantiated claims; at Entebbe Airport (0 latitude) in Uganda the minimum temp varies between 16-18C, with an annual average of 17C. The nearly constant insolation at the equator dominates. "Why is the temperature millimetres above the surface of the ocean just about the same as that of the first few millimetres of water just below?" Once again, we look to the data. Galveston, TX water temperature remains in the 80s F through September; air temperature begins declining a month earlier. If memory serves, I recall something about water having a higher specific heat than air. But the relevance of this particular observation is? "If I fill a balloon in a room with 80% pure nitrogen and 20% pure oxygen" You must stop conflating these room scale examples with atmospheric dynamics. Same mistake as RW Wood made with his salt greenhouse. Scale is everything here. "the outdated 1998 NASA chart." If it is outdated, why are you continuing to cite it? How can you base your 'skepticism' of the current (Trenberth) diagram on this outdated chart? "just like in fact does happen at the surface, using up probably at least two thirds" 'Probably at least'? Is this a scientific statement? And in what manner is energy 'used up'? No one claims that convection and conduction are not involved in heat transfer. But your 'diffusion prevails' argument is invalid; that takes anything based on that argument down as well. Integrity demands that you admit your mistakes here and retract these positions on your own website. -
DougCotton at 08:04 AM on 12 August 2011Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Muoncounter #115: Inland areas at the equator in Africa do not have steady temperatures like those seen on equatorial islands. It is, in fact, exactly as you say: "a large body of water at these locations moderates their temperature range." Why is it so? Why is the temperature millimetres above the surface of the ocean just about the same as that of the first few millimetres of water just below? According to the Tremberth diagram, the heat exiting the water does so 16.2% as latent heat which drifts up into the clouds before it has any effect, and 80.3% by radiation which can in no way convey the exact temperature of the water to the adjacent air molecules. Only conduction (diffusion) can do that. Is that the 3.4% in those thermals doing all that? It does leave me questioning the assumptions. If I fill a balloon in a room with 80% pure nitrogen and 20% pure oxygen the "air mix" inside will soon have a temperature matching the outside air, won't it, no matter how much I alter the air conditioner. Yet no GH gas inside, no radiation to speak of - just good old convection and diffusion - just like in fact does happen at the surface, using up probably at least two thirds of the outward heat flow as in the outdated 1998 NASA chart. What a difference a few years makes in consensus opinion. -
Bob Lacatena at 06:08 AM on 12 August 2011Climate Denial Video #4: The favourite weapon of deniers, cherry picking
EtR talking about "deniers" and "alarmists" as if he's in the middle. That's rich. -
Rob Honeycutt at 05:46 AM on 12 August 2011Climate Denial Video #4: The favourite weapon of deniers, cherry picking
Eric... I'm with Daniel. Please present us with the compelling evidence because I've not seen it. Each time "skeptics" put forth some new paper that claims to contradict AGW it comes up extremely short of the mark. -
Anne-Marie Blackburn at 05:32 AM on 12 August 2011The Ridley Riddle Part Three: Like a Northern Rock
Thanks for another enjoyable read. It is interesting to see so plainly that in quite a lot of cases, ideology is the main reason for dismissing climate science. Debunking such people is a thankless task, but one which will hopefully help in the long run. -
CBDunkerson at 04:36 AM on 12 August 2011Climate Denial Video #4: The favourite weapon of deniers, cherry picking
EtR #35 wrote: "Well evidence has been presented, but it is claimed to be bogus based an any number of criteria." And you really can't see that to many of us this sentence describes YOU more than any other respondent above? You've been presented with evidence. You have ignored or dismissed it. I guess it all comes down to what one considers 'evidence'. Your objections about 'causing' vs 'significant contributing factor' and 'climate scientists' vs 'climate experts' as the very pinnacle of ridiculous semantic shenanigans over trivia having nothing to do with the scientific realities. You seem to think they are vitally important and revealing and dismiss all objections to the contrary.
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