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theSkeptik at 06:48 AM on 25 February 2020Climate's changed before
@michal sweet, MA Rodger and KR:
First of all I very much appreciate your quick comments on my post.
to 1) yes, I realize now that ice core measurements have been taken in the antarctica (not arctica) which I assume means it's about CO2 from the atmosphere, not the sea water. The shown direct relationship to the temperature is therefore plausible to me.
to 2) I am discussing solely the meaning of the presented data from the University of Copenhagen. The article claims it supports the assumption that there is a causal relationship between the GHG and global temperature. Don't get me wrong, there may be other evidence for that claim but that's not my point here.
@michael sweet
The predicion you mentioned about the global warming 100 years ago is outside the scope of the discussed data. Apart from that, there are only two possible outcomes from such a prediction: a) It can turn out right - temperatures are rising or b) it can turn out wrong - temperatures are falling. So even with an uneducated guess one would have a 50% chance to be right. Finally, the graphic doesn't even show any evidence of global warming, though it does show a very significant raise in methane and CO2 in the last decades.
@MA Rodger
I see your first argument is in line with another claim of the article that recent data show a phase shift in GHG and temperature. Since 2012 GHG movement is said to no longer lag behind temperature data. I agree this would be an indication of a significant change. Unfortunately this data is not shown in the article and it can't be seen in the presented graph. Your second argument just seems to support my concern: Global warming can't be seen in the antarctica according to the chart so far. It is possible that it shows up in the future, but the shown data gives no evidence to that assumption.
Finally I do not make any claims about any relationships between GHG and temperature or other related parameters. I am just looking for unbiased information and constantly come across overinterpreted data and conclusions driven by preoccupation. If one claims a causal relationship between two parameters its up to them to give evidence, not to me to proof otherwise.
@KR
As a physicist working for several decades in RnD companies I am not easily convinced of simple models describing the behaviour of complex reality. At least it's not obvious to me that a gas in a concentration of only several hundreds of ppm is likely to have such a significant influence on global temperature. It might not be impossible and I will surely have a closer look at this matter in due course. However, as I mentioned before this is not my current point. I am discussing the presented graphic which seems to support nothing of the claims about global warming apart from unusual high greenhouse gas concentrations.
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nigelj at 06:29 AM on 25 February 2020How much would planting 1 trillion trees slow global warming?
"Their analysis inflated soil organic carbon gains, failed to safeguard against warming from trees at high latitudes and elevations, and considered afforestation of savannas, grasslands, and shrublands to be restoration."
In addition, most grasslands are already used for cattle farming, so turning them into forests has considerable consequences, and we have the Red Barons of the world mentioning that grasslands can be a useful carbon store if properly grazed. I just think the study on forests looks wildly optimistic, and is full of such obvious omissions you wonder what planet they were on when writing it. Of course forests do have some significant potential, just not the inflated potential some politicians like to portray.
As to carbon capture and storage and its "economics" needing further analysis, according to this article "Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal". How can carbon capture and storage possibly compete with that?
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scaddenp at 06:02 AM on 25 February 2020Climate's changed before
What has happened in the past is easily accounted for within our current theory of climate. No unexplained physics though there are unfortunately plenty of underconstrained problems (where more than one possible cause for observations and insufficient measurable to distinquish).
What we can say with confidence is that increasing GHG will increase the amount of radiation received at the surface because we can unambiguously measure it. Unless you can dream up some other way to account for the observations, then I dont see how you can dispute this.
Now, if the sun increased its output so that an extra 4W/m2 reached the surface, do you think the planet would warm? (If you dont think so, then I am fascinated to hear your theory of seasons...). If you accept that, then why dont think an extra 4W/m2 from GHG would also warm the surface.
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Climate's changed before
theSkeptik - " I would assume that both greenhous gases and temperature are correlated to other parameters"
Well, yes, because physics. Long lived non-precipitating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (CO2, CFCs, Methane) reduce IR emissions to space from the top of the atmosphere, which causes an imbalance of energy in the climate against incoming sunlight, and the climate therefore warms until radiated energy once again equals incoming.
Along the way there are feedbacks both (mostly) positive and (some) negative which on the whole amplify the temperature response, such as changing CO2 solubility in the oceans, changing Earth albedo by melting snow over darker landscapes, methane releases from warming permafrost, and as a fast response changes in absolute humidity due to warm air holding more water vapor (itself a greenhouse gas, although as a feedback, not a driver).
Physics comes first - correlation analysis to determine the exact amplitude of the response between drivers and the climate comes later.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:32 AM on 25 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
JoeZ @8 (and other points),
First - Do you have anything to share about my point regarding the rather deliberately harmful behaviour of the supposedly smart likes of Crichton?
Then - "I suggest that it's wrong to think that all climate skeptics are "deniers" who don't believe the climate is warming and don't believe CO2 is a GHG. I suggest most skeptics think the likelihood of change is on the low end. They do understand that the climate is warming and that CO is a GHG. Maybe they can't provide proof that the change will be on the low end because most skeptics aren't scientists. It's just that most skeptics don't think it's anything to freak out over."
The ability to collectively develop expanded awareness and improved understanding and apply that shared learning to develop improvements, from the personal-today level up to the future of global humanity level, is what has produced everything that can be seen to be sustainable improvements of humanity.
It is indeed true that humans can simply fundamentally behave like selfish animals. But humans have the ability to lean to be helpful and avoid being harmful. And sustainable animal life even requires animals to limit their actions to what is required for their survival as a part of the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet.
As an engineer with an MBA I offer the following advise: do not expect to get rich through unsustainable harmful actions. Some people have definitely gotten rich that way. But expanded awareness and improving understanding is developing to the point where more and more of these types of people are 'losing some of their undeserved perceptions of success and opportunity', as they should because the future of humanity requires that they be disappointed and penalized.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:15 AM on 25 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
nigelj,
Another good book on the subject is "Winners Take All - The Elite Charade of Changing the World", by Anand Giridharadas. It is a detailed and evidenced based expose of how harmful the Carnegie Gospel of how the Rich need to be allowed to be Richer any way they can get away with because they will be the best at applying all their excess personal wealth to fix the problems of human societies (the problems that were created by the way they got so wealthy).
The Koch philanthropy of supporting a Ballet Company to "Look like a Good Rich Person" is an example. It unjustifiably impresses the peers in the undeserving wealthy powerful pool, deflecting from questions about how the perceptions of superior status were obtained.
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MA Rodger at 22:19 PM on 24 February 2020Climate's changed before
theSkeptik @808,
You refer to the plot of CO2, Methane & temperature found in the 'intermediate' OP which is derived from Antarctic ice cores.
(1) The CO2 and Methane data is obtained from the content of air bubbles so is not a measutre of ocean CO2 but of atmospheric CO2.
(2) You compare the increase in CO2 through recent ice age cycles with the modern anthropogenic increase and, given the larger temperature swings plotted through the ice ages you suggest "we would expect a much higher temperature in the present in contrast to what we see in the chart." Do note firstly that the climate forcing from GHGs through the ice ages still exceeds the modern anthropogenic forcing which have had little-enough time to act and that GHGs were not the sole forcing agent through the ice ages. Secondly, the temperatures plotted are from the Antarctic which hasn't regionally seen as much warming as there has been globally, and that despite polar amplification which would have 'amplified' the ice age temperature swings in Antarctica.
You also dismiss CO2 and methane as significant forcers of climate because you "assume that both greenhous gases and temperature are correlated to other parameters." What are these other 'parameters' you talk of and their means of 'correlation' to GHGs and to temperature?
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michael sweet at 19:17 PM on 24 February 2020Climate's changed before
The Skeptic:
1) Your question is hard to read. Indirectly proportional means as one variable goes up the other goes down. Directly proportional means as one variable goes up the other goes up.
We expect that as ocean temperature goes up less CO2 will be dissolved. The CO2 goes from the ocean into the atmosphere. We see in the Copenhagen graph that as temperature goes up, CO2 also goes up. That is exactly what was predicted by scientists decades before the ice core was obtained.
2) Scientists first predicted that increasing CO2 would result in increasing temperature in around 1855. The ice core measurements made over 100 years later confirmed this prediction. A prediction made over 100 years in advance of the data is not the same as "assum[ing] there is a direct causal relationship between the greenhouse gases and temperature". Validation of predictions is strong confirmation that the theory is correct.
The ice core data end before the start of the industrial age. Note that the first line on the timeline is 50,000 years ago. You need to look at the Hocky Stick to see the changes due to the industrial age. That data shows a clear link between dramatic increases in temperature and release of CO2. This temperature increase is known to cause sea level rise, unprecedented wild fires and extreme weather.
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nigelj at 17:13 PM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Regarding Philippe Chantreaus comments. The relevant book is Dark Money. The same people who said the global financial crash couldn' t happen, and when it did they made excuses for the culprits are the same people involved in climate denialism, eg The Koch Brothers, The Bradly Brothers etc.
They are business leaders at the libertarian ideological fringe, and perhaps many of them have sociopathic tendencies. Their two biggest hates are 1) taxes and 2) government regulations (apart from when it helps their business interests. These people are utter hypocrites. )
The Kochs and their supporters started a libertarian political party to push their cause a couple of decades ago, but it tanked in the polls, getting less than 1% support, so they adopted a different strategy, to fund a huge network of think tanks, and lobby groups and they have huge influence on the GOP through this and political donations, and some influence on the Democrats.
So if you want to know why federal level climate policy is mostly a failure in the USA, this would be the main reason. This sounds a but conspiratorial, but in this instance the evidence is overwhelming.
These people will stop at nothing to undermine things like a climate change consensus.
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theSkeptik at 16:24 PM on 24 February 2020Climate's changed before
Especially the meaning of the chart from the University of Copenhagen remains unclear to me:
1) CO2 has been measured in the ice of the antarctica. It should therefore reflect the CO2 content of the sea in the past. Warmer oceans can dissolve less CO2. Wouldn't we then expect a CO2 content in the ice indirect proportional to the temperature?
2) It is a common fallacy in science to assume a causal relationship between two parameters just because they show a similar behaviour over time. If we assume there is a direct causal relationship between the greenhouse gases and temperature, we would expect a much higher temperature in the present in contrast to what we see in the chart. Looking at the graphic from an unbiased perspective I would assume that both greenhous gases and temperature are correlated to other parameters. According to the data CO2 and methane don't seem to have a significant influence on temperature therefore.
All in all, temperatures in the antarctica seem to be rather unobtrusive with no visible deviations since the industrial age.
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scaddenp at 14:07 PM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
". It is not human nature, however to think in crappy ways."
(quick glance at news) Evidence would suggest otherwise.
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Philippe Chantreau at 12:22 PM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
scaddenp,
OK, that'd be the more general version. It is not human nature, however to think in crappy ways. Just today I met a young nursing student who gave a kidney, without being asked, just to make some other person's life possible; the recipient happened to be even younger than her.
Competition for high power positions and for material wealh tends to select favorably those with sociopathic tendencies, so it is possible that they are found in higher concentrations in these circles than in the general population.
If the general population was to acquire a understanding of the situation unpolluted by falsehoods and propaganda, they would decide to do the right thing. The desperate storm of denialism that we are witnessing is owed to the fact that the small groups who profit from the current situation are well aware that, would the full reality of AGW be accepted by the majority, they will have no moral case whatsoever, so they'll loose. What is hard to understand is the ferocity of continued pursuit of wealth coming from those who are already richer than most of us can imagine and enjoying a level of privilege unprecedented in humanity's history.
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Eclectic at 12:05 PM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
JoeZ , I am pleased to see you have returned to multiple-thread posting at SkS after a brief "hiatus". Perhaps you were confused when you said that SkepticalScience had given you "a warning that ... [you would] be locked out!" . I haven't seen any evidence of such a warning ~ so presumably it came on some other website where you currently post.
Readers at SkS like to see science and fact-based opinions, rather than mere truculent denialism. So I am hoping you can provide some reasonable comment on the scientific consensus, even when you are struggling to come to terms with the future spending of "trillions" of dollars in dealing with the global warming problem. ( I would be interested to see - on another thread, please - a more precise budgeting of your projected "trillions". Trillions [over 30 years] are sometimes a figure thrown about, but AFAIK they are not offset by the trillions that would otherwise ordinarily be spent on upgrading & routine replacement of coal-fired power stations, and the routine replacement of ICE cars & so on, and on medical health costs & loss of productivity from air-pollution/particulates, nor the high [dollar] costs associated with big numbers of climate refugees . . . going to Boston etcetera. Nor the many other costs arising from a warming world. Human compassion aside, for those who are purely concerned with the dollar bottom-line, it seems a bargain to spend up-front money in tackling climate change.
.... and a minor comparison, the APPA expenditure figures project a total spend [over 30 years] of one trillion dollars on pet food. And that's just for the USA, alone. )
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scaddenp at 11:46 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Philippe - I would more have thought the argument boiled down to "Its human nature to think in crappy ways, therefore it is ok". Thinking better is hard work.
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michael sweet at 11:18 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
JoeZ, Your claims of "many trillions they're going to spend to solve this problem" is incomplete. Is fossil gasoline and electricity really free where you live?? It is like saying "this Toyota sedan is too expensive at $25,000. I will have to buy the Ferrari instead". In order to make a comparison you need to compare the cost of a renewable system to the cost of a fossil fuel system.
Fortunately this has been done. Jacobson et al 2018 and Connelly et al 2016 have shown that a renewable system built by 2050 will cost about the same for energy as a fossil fuel system. After it is built the renewable energy system will be much cheaper since it will only require maintenance and no fuel.
The savings on health costs alone are more than the cost of the energy system. The savings from less destructive weather is many trillions of dollars. The savings from less sea level rise is many trillions of dollars.
You have been reading uninformed skeptic comments at trash sites like WUWT. In reality, it will save trillions of dollars to switch to renewable energy.
Why do you support the most expensive system?
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:24 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
I'll ad this:
The full extension of JoeZ's reasoning goes this far: in 30-40 years, I'll be dead, so what do I care?
Nice outlook
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:21 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
What baffles me with the claim about cost is the double standard. The 2008 financial crisis cost the world economy somewhere around 15 trillions. Yet none of the major individual actors who held significant responsibility in this pathetic mix of greed, corruption, fraud and incompetence experienced serious consequences. It was largely brushed off as a somewhat unavoidable side effect of unfettered capitalism. The enormous expense incured brought zero benefit to the world at large.
Nonetheless, the truly interesting thing about this miserable fiasco is how easily it was overall absorbed. Some countries were hit harder than others, and certainly there was some suffering caused even in the developed world, but nothing coming close to the great depression. It shows that the word economy is in fact capable of enduring a blow of 15 trillion over a couple of years without worldwide effects of the truly catastrophic type. If only that gigantic pile of moolah could have been spent on something useful instead of being squandered by egotistic criminals, something like energy transition. But of course, if such an idea was proposed, with a price tag of that weight, it would draw screams peppered with all the right propaganda words.
There is something in common with the cimate disruption, however: when people who knew what they were talking about, and had done careful study of the situation rang the alarm bell on the upcoming disaster, they were dismissed by others who simply denied that anything serious would happen, although they did not know what they were talking about and had not done the work. When some clever ones decided to bank on it, they were received eagerly by all the clowns who thought that they were crazy, the same clowns who would soon beg them to buy their positions back at multiples of the initial price.
We are nowhere near a doubling of CO2 concentration, and not close to equilibrium. Even if we stopped emitting right now, there would be still significant warming to come. yet we are already at 1deg C above pre-industrial. The probability the equilibrium temp increase for doubling will be 1.5 deg could be said to be small enough to be negligible. Is there a way to short the entire world economy on the 40 years horizon?
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scaddenp at 08:58 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Death, taxes and politicians lying are facts of life. What science tells you is different. IPCC WG2 is strong science statement about likely impacts; WG3 is assessment of solutions. I'm up to be guided by those not vague hopes or political preferences.
Ok, you hear about unpopular solutions. Is it reasonable to assume that all uncertainty must in the lower range not the upper range, or that problem cant be that bad if I dont like the solutions?
Or do you look for a solution that is more palatable or compatiable with your ideology instead? (and for which there is strong consensus backing for the effectiveness).
If my actions, which improve my life (eg emitting CO2) are turning somebodies elses life into hell, then I regard it as immoral to continue. I strongly suspect that you would agree if the problems with your lifestyle impacted your local community. What makes it ok then, if it is out of sight? Caring for humanity is what makes for a great humanitarian. You admire that in Carter, why not aspire for that?
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JoeZ at 06:57 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Scaddenp,
"Surely you arent seriously suggesting that if global warming isnt hurting you, then you dont mind if the rest of world going to hell in an handbasket?" Well, now that you mention it..... Let's face it, it's human nature to worry about yourself and the people in your life- your own problems whether it's health, wealth, relationships, whatever. Worrying about the rest of the world seldom rises to the surface. And I suspect if a tornado blasted through my area, the folks on those small islands that are afraid of going under water aren't going to worry about me. Now, having said that, climate science is unlike any other science because of its vast political and economic consequences. We are seeing every day politicians talking about how many trillions they're going to spend to solve this problem when they don't in fact know the extent of the problem. So, it's just natural that many people are getting pissed off about such talk. Maybe if climate scientists- the 97%- were to tell those politicans and the media to "cool it"- no pun intended- that they should be more cautious in finding solutions- then maybe fewer people wouldn't vote for Trump, who is clearly going to win. I'm not going to vote for him because I don't like his personality- though I like some of his policies, especially foreign policies. And I don't like any Democrats either. I did like Jimmy Carter, a nuclear engineer who put solar panels on the white house. And he's a great humanitarian.
Moderator Response:[TD] If you driving a car with the accelerator pressed nearly to the floor, are headed straight at a brick wall, and are sure you will hit the wall, you should take your foot off the accelerator regardless of whether you are uncertain whether you will be going 50 mph or 80 mph when you hit it. See the response to the myth It’s Not Bad.
Your claim of cost is too gross. See the response to the myth It’s Too Hard.
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scaddenp at 06:50 AM on 24 February 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
Ah ok. Thanks for that. Understand the suggestion which makes sense.
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scaddenp at 06:07 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Joez - and what makes them think that likelihood of change is at the low end? Because that opinion is informed by scientific observation or because doing something about it is unpalatable to their politics or not what their identity group believes. Isnt that just another kind of denial? Do you expect to be respected for uninformed hopes?
Instead of cherry picking the good news, wouldnt it be a better idea to evaluate globally the effects and see what the balance is? Surely you arent seriously suggesting that if global warming isnt hurting you, then you dont mind if the rest of world going to hell in an handbasket?
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nigelj at 05:38 AM on 24 February 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Joe Z @3, reduced conventional bank financing to the fossil fuel industry would leave them having to compete for other remaining funds which are a limited resource, thus driving up the cost of those funds, increasing the price of petrol and forcing people to consider electric cars etcetera. This is what is needed.
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JoeZ at 04:26 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
response to #7
"And the range of 1.5C to 6.0C actually indicates a consensus of understanding that increased CO2 will result in global warming." I suggest that it's wrong to think that all climate skeptics are "deniers" who don't believe the climate is warming and don't believe CO2 is a GHG. I suggest most skeptics think the liklihood of change is on the low end. They do understand that the climate is warming and that CO is a GHG. Maybe they can't provide proof that the change will be on the low end because most skeptics aren't scientists. It's just that most skeptics don't think it's anything to freak out over. This gets to the critique about the 97% thing. I wonder about the following- what percent of that 97% think climate change is pontentially catastrophic and that we must spend trillions in the short term to prevent the catastrophe? And in case you're wondering- yes- I'm one of those skeptics who KNOWS that the climate is warming because I've worked out doors as a forester in Massachusetts for 47 years and I KNOW it's warmer- and I do agree that CO2 is a GHG. But, I don't know anybody around here complaining about it. Just got a call from my wife visiting friends south of Boston. They're sitting on the porch and she said it's almost 60 F and they're enjoying it very much- no complaints that it's not -20 F.
Moderator Response:[TD] See the post in response to the myth It’s Not Bad
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JoeZ at 04:13 AM on 24 February 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
"Many fossil fuel corporations are already in debt." Sure, but many are doing great. When the debt ridden firms go under- those doing fine will buy their assetts. I doubt that J.P. Morgan and some other investment houses turning against fossil fuel industries will make much of a difference. it's a big world with lots of people with lots of money looking for investments. Whether anyone likes it or not I think fossil fuel firms will be around for some time. Especially because a lot of people still want gas for their cars, heating oil for heir homes, etc. I have an electric chainsaw- not to help save the planet but because they're really nice- very convenient for backyard kind of work. Quite and I sure got tired of pulling on the cord trying to start gas saws. But, they'll only work for only an hour or so. I'd hate to be a logger who has to cut big trees all day- because no electric chain saw will do that- so those loggers will want gas. Of course much logging today is done with big machines (feller-bunchers and skidders). I suppose they won't be happy without diesel. Oh, and I plan on buying an electric lawn mower this year- for the same reason- convenience and quite.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:39 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
MA Rogers @4, In addition to your comment regarding Crichton, in a speech to a US Congress Committee more than a decade ago he also 'questioned the validity of climate science' by declaring that any science that had a 400% range of results could/should be dismissed as unreliable science.
He was likely referring to the 'warming due to a doubling of CO2 being a range from 1.5C to 6.0C'. But he did not include that awareness and understanding. He just mentioned that there was something in climate science with a 400% range of results. That would only seem to indicate unreliability and would be accepted without question by someone who has little interest in learning about what is actually being discussed, especially someone who has developed beliefs of superiority relative to others that would be compromised, be corrected, by actually improving their understanding of the issue.
That acceptance without question also applies to people who liked claims made regarding the illegally obtained emails of climate scientists. They accepted the claims without question. And they still try to tease out some version of questionable comments made by climate scientists - without ever questioning anything said by the likes of Crichton that they instinctively liked, partly because one of the popular New Age Myths is that your Gut Instinct, First Impression is most likely correct about anything and everything. Investigating and thinking about things, expanding awareness and improving understanding only messes stuff up.
And the range of 1.5C to 6.0C actually indicates a consensus of understanding that increased CO2 will result in global warming. A lack of consensus that increased CO2 would result in global warming would look like a range of -5.0C to +6.0C for a doubling of CO2. Also, the range from 1.5C to 6.0C at the time showed that the science was skeptical about declaring a consensus about that aspect of the science. And the recent refinements of the range of climate sensitivity have provided more evidence of robust science and the direction of development towards a stronger consensus regarding that aspect of the science.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:12 AM on 24 February 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
JoeZ,
New investment is needed to expand the rate of fossil fuel production, and is even needed to maintain it.
And Alberta's fossil fuel export pushing leadership is very concerned that any Canadian decisions to limit new fossil fuel production investment, decisions that add costs or that simply deny the initial low-balled offering of the profiteer developer, low-balled to maximize their profit if it is accepted that way, will send a 'terrible' message to global investors.
Many fossil fuel corporations are already in debt. They have no significant internal wealth to spend on New Opportunities. And some of the traditional fossil fuels firms are transitioning away from that activity as shareholders push to stop such corporations from gambling income on new fossil fuel ventures.
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JoeZ at 00:46 AM on 24 February 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
"The study implicitly condemns the US bank’s own investment strategy and highlights growing concerns among major Wall Street institutions about the financial and reputational risks of continued funding of carbon-intensive industries, such as oil and gas." I suspect the fossil fuel industries won't have trouble finding financing and if necessary they'll set up their own banks and financial firms.
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CzarnyZajaczek at 09:33 AM on 23 February 20203 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
@scaddenp I have error in my comment (60), I meant that "Australia really has one of the highest electricity prices among developed countries" and I've just noticed this omission. Of course Australia is far from having highest electricity prices on the world when comparing to all countries.
Btw it seems that they had relatively high electricity prices before they started investing in intermittent renewables like solar and wind on large scale, so intermittent renewables are unlikely to be main cause of high prices.
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richieb1234 at 00:52 AM on 23 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @20
Great stuff! The graphic from Czech Republic is especially enlightening. In a world where global warming is a reality we will all have to live with, mitigating the effects at local and regional levels will require an understanding of other factors. I plan to follow up on the links you provided.
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Eclectic at 15:57 PM on 22 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Libertador @1 , Yes I think sometimes a science-denier deliberately plays "change the goal posts" during a dialogue, as a rhetorical tactic to disconcert his opponent. Though probably more often this tactic reflects the denialist's own intellectual confusion and lack of logical thought about the consensus issue.
PatriceM @2 , and also PhilippeC : in addition there is the point that the denialists confuse & conflate the two separate facets of "consensus" :- being (A) the numerical percentage you get when you discuss/survey the expressed opinions of (climate) scientists, and (B) the numerical percentage you get [99.9%] when you look at the current state of science, as expressed in peer-reviewed scientific papers.
"B" is extremely close to 100% . . . while "A" is slightly lower, owing to some scientists being inhibited by their personal bias (bias of the rather extreme political sort and/or extremist religious beliefs).
MA Rodger @4 , You make a very good point about denialists who (quite often) throw up a Gish Gallop of "historical consensuses being wrong" as though it is a Law of Nature that any/every consensus must eventually & inevitably turn out to be completely wrong. Their arguments are mostly irrelevant to climate, and are totally illogical, but - by the sin of omission - they carefully fail to mention the vastly greater proportion of scientific consensuses which turned out to be right (as confirmed in historical retrospect).
Yet the "But Copernicus : But Galileo : etcetera" line of argument would often sound somewhat valid to the casual onlookers. I can think of only two cards to be played in reply :- That in olden times, the so-called consensus often swung back and forth on a number of occasions before settling on the true scientific conclusion: and yet that hasn't happened with the AGW climate consensus of modern decades ~ where the consensus keeps moving more and more strongly in the one direction, as the scientific evidence has continued to build up. The consensus was about 90% . . . then later 97% . . . and nowadays well over 99% , with absolutely no sign of going the other way.
The second card to play, is your point that (unlike in olden times) the "contrarians" nowadays have no valid evidence to back their "alternative theories". No evidence ~ because all their ideas have proven wrong when tested. (This point means nothing to the committed hard-core denialist . . . but it would have value, in the minds of onlookers.)
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:52 PM on 22 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas,
After quickly reviewing the comment string I have the following observation to share.
Your comment @3 was about the way that regional deforestation in Australia was affecting the regional climate. This is similar to the studies indicating that removing only a portion of the Amazon Rainforest could significantly affect the climate in that region, potentially ending the rain forest supporting climate conditions throughout the region.
However, those evaluations are 'zoomed-in' studies that are difficult to perform, like any scientific investigation of any part of the planet's integrated and complex ecosystem is. The boundary conditions of such a study are difficult to establish. Deforestation, or reforestation, in Australia affects the total global climate system, as well as affecting regional climate. And properly passing that impact out through the boundary of the study and bringing back the global return impacts through the boundary can be done by the complex global climate models, based on the model ability to reflect reality. But the global picture is probably more important to investigate than regional evaluations.
Indeed, it appears that regional climate changes in Australia are the result of deforestation in Australia plus all the other climate changing impacts of global human activity. Determining how much of the changing climate in Australia is due to the regional changes of deforestation vs. the global changes occurring is challenging, and a rather unnecessary. From a high-level holistic look, regional deforestation in Australia should be stopped because of its global impacts as well as the regional impacts.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:58 AM on 22 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark: I don't know if you are still reading this, but...
I was going to suggest Google Scholar, too.
Skeptical Science is a niche web site,specifically geared towards rebutting bad/incorrect climate myths from people that don't accept the mainstream science. There are other locations more sutaiable to general learning.
For general climate stuff, I suggest two links:
- The Discovery of Global Warming (the history of the science, that is...)
- The IPCC reports. Go to the bottom of the list and look at the first one, from 1990. It doesn't cover the current science, obviously (and it is now 30 years old!), but because it was the first it actually covers a lot more general information than recent ones. Much more suitable as a starting point.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:21 AM on 22 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Science indeed has nothing to do with the consensus, but the consensus has everything to so with science. ONce something has been researched and the results converge and agree, there is a consensus. This is a non-issue. One can wonder, if consensus is not important, why deniers keep on making the argument that there isn't one.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:19 AM on 22 February 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
scaddenp,
because of the Walker circulation and the thermocline angle between the 2 sides of the Pacific. See here and the Wiki.
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scaddenp at 07:04 AM on 22 February 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
Why would that be case? I dont follow your argument, why would cold water be rising?
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richieb1234 at 23:28 PM on 21 February 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
"El Niños bring hot water up to the ocean surface where it warms the temperature of the surface air that most directly influences and interests humanity."
Wouldn't it be more accurate to say "El Niños slow down the rise of cold water to the ocean's surface?"
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MA Rodger at 21:16 PM on 21 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
There is the argument that science doesn't have anything to do with 'consensus'. In one respect, this is surely correct.
A denialist version of this comes from Michael Crichton who was described by Joe Romm as "the world’s most famous global warming denier." Crichton's defines 'consensus science' in a broad denialist polemic of 2003 'Aliens Cause Global Warming ':-
"I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled.
"Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had."
...
"If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period."Crichton goes on to set out how in science "the track record of the consensus is nothing to be proud of." So he is not denying the existence of 'consensus science'. Rather, he is actually saying is that 'consensus science' is synonimous with science being wrong, badly wrong, and this is because 'consensus science' is used to stiffle unwanted argument that turns out to be the 'correct' science. By implication Crichton is saying of AGW that it is also badly wrong and the scientific community is trying to stiffle the 'correct' science. (Note, the word 'legitimate' is probably better than 'correct' but Crichton doesn't make that point.)
To a certain level, Crichton was correct. The scientific community is trying to stiffle unwanted argument by invoking 'consensus science'.
Myself, I prefer the version of 'consensus science' defined by the idea that 'consensus' is reached when the 'science' stops. So the question becomes "Is there any actual science being carried out by the myrad of numpties who deny AGW?" We can ask "That 3% who are outside the AGW consensus: what 'science' are they actually doing?"
The argument set out by Crichton gave examples of 'consensus science' being wielded as a way of ignoring specific theories which proved to be correct - puerperal fever, pellagra, continental drift. "The examples can be multiplied endlessly. Jenner and smallpox, Pasteur and germ theory. Saccharine, margarine, repressed memory, fiber and colon cancer, hormone replacement therapy. The list of consensus errors goes on and on." So, if AGW is another example of dreadful 'consensus science' as Crichton evidently implies, where are the specific theories wielded by AGW that we are ignoring? Where is this 'legitimate' science that prevents the existence of an AGW 'consensus'. I would be happy to consider the merit fo such work. And so would many others. But I don't see any specific theories wielded by the numpties who deny AGW! Their 'legitimate' science simply doesn't exist!!And by my definition, until the numpties set out a specific theory, until there is 'legitimate' science which we can debate, we are left with nothing but AGW 'consensus'. And a climate emergency.
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Mark Thomas at 09:27 AM on 21 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Nigelj @26
Thank you, I see how your reply resonates with the moderator response to (mark Thomas @3) and Eclectic @12 response.
To attempt a paraphrase..... deforestation / land based changes is recognised in its impact on the climate through its CO2 release and uptake. Globally (Per the AR5 (AR5, SPM page 5, Figure SPM.2), deforestation is currently approx. 11% of the overall problem (moderator @ Mark Thomas @3) and that Australia, with its higher than average deforestation is approx 15% of GHG impact (nigelj @26), contribution to the greenhouse effect....
So I am hearing that the land cover change (LCC) physical impact I have been focused on is recognised as a minor contributor to increasing temperature on earth and across continents such as Australia. That I am describing a theory studied and investigated and incorperated by climate science in the equation (stating the obvious). That the impact of LCC is recognised more as an ecological issue and therein is extremely important to turn around loss of habitat and fauna. Lungs of the earth etc.
I can see more why there isnt much on LCC and its direct effect on climate, and you may find this interesting, on both sides of the debate (I use this word recognising only some people see there is a debate to be had). In other words I am discussing a fringe theory. Even an Ecology professor who is passionate about fighting climate change, gave me no reply or took no interest.
Thank you for multiple replies to information indicating why its not a primary issue, this is what I am really interested in.
BaerbelW @27 thank you for research tip to find non paywalled papers, and the link to Dougs work and his weekly research news.
I am greatful for the time everyone has taken to reply to me, and making me feel welcome.
I will sign off here on this thread as I have significant reading to do now on this subject, look forward to future dialogue.
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Philippe Chantreau at 08:09 AM on 21 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Consensus may not occur even when plenty of knowledge has been developed, but if it does, it indeed points to knowledge that can be ascribed a high level of certainty. In the case of climate science, consensus really means convergence of results and conclusions. Agreement arises because research continues to show the same thing over and over again, until the point where it is no longer useful to re-examine some specific points. That what consensus means. It does not equate to conformism.
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PatriceM at 05:28 AM on 21 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
I think that the answer to the question is like:
Science is indeed not done by consensus. But that does not mean consensus does not occur when enough knowledge is collected and the knowledge is sound. The very emergence of consensus means that we do know enough to be sure of it. -
icowrich at 05:16 AM on 21 February 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
The escalator gif needs a 2020 update.
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BaerbelW at 04:39 AM on 21 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @25
Doug - who puts together the weekly research news - pointed me towards this newly published paper which might be of interest for you:
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
He mentioned that it has a somewhat different focus and is not specifically about Australia but also that it'll be the references that offer the real payload for your purposes.
Oh, and about paywalled papers: not sure if you are aware but if you search for a paper's title via scholar.google.com you often find accessible versions.
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MA Rodger at 01:59 AM on 21 February 2020Climate goes extreme!
skymccain @5,
Your numbers (as set out in the webpage you link to) are in need of correction.
The 74% increase you project is the percentage increase in the rate of CO2 increase. Your 710.3ppm by 2039 is a 74% increase in the level of CO2.
And the way you calculate the decadal rate of increase is very hit-&-miss. If you calculate that decadal rise for every start-year (so 1959-68, 1960-69, 1961-70, etc) and look for a rising trend, you don't find one. All you get is a lot of noise. The percentage rate of CO2 increase has not actually increased. It is the rate of CO2 increase that has been increasing (from 8ppm/decade 1959-68 to 24ppm/decade 2010-19). Projecting that rate of CO2 increase yields 441ppm by 2029 and 478ppm by 2039. That increase in the rate-of-CO2-increase is the equivalent of 71% in 25 years.
The BBC article from 2007 you quoted talks of all GHG emissions saying:-
"Greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 70% since 1970, and will rise by between 25% and 90% over the next 25 years under "business as usual"."
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libertador at 23:17 PM on 20 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
I really like the last comic. I really shows an often used rhetoric. Make a wrong assertion. Let the oposite side debunk it. Then you the other site is talking about irrelevant stuff.
To expose your rhetoric the opponent would have to go two steps back, which quite hardly followed in a debate.
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skymccain at 21:19 PM on 20 February 2020Climate goes extreme!
“If we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions, heatwaves will become twelve times more likely by 2040.”
I’m noticing more and more precise predictions concerning not only heatwaves but the amount of CO2 in the troposphere. My personal research and calculations reveal, as far as I can tell, that CO2 is rising at an unpredictable rate AND the rate of increase is increasing unpredictably. The data I use comes from the Mauna Loa, Hawaii - ESRL Global Monitoring Division. I believe that we are already suffering from having reached a tipping point with CO2. Our crisis is not “coming.” It is here! Please see: Tipping points
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nigelj at 19:03 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @25
"I am asking how the climate science community (as I have been refered to address here by Bob @21) rates the impact from broad scale deforestation on climate in Australia, thats all. And a personal reply too as I am seeking dialogue."
Deforestation globally used to account for 20% of CO2 emissions and now its about 10% of emissions (deforestation and climate change on wikipedia,) so lets say 15% long term for the sake of simplicity. This means deforestation has caused about 15% of global warming at global scale.
Australia has warmed about 1 degree c since 1900, much the same as the global average, so it looks to me like about 15% of warming in Australia (as a whole) since 1900 is due to deforestation.
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Mark Thomas at 17:58 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
BaerbelW @23
In regards to your opening line, I am trying to convey one question not many. I am not questioning ice sheet retreats, temp increase, acidification oceans, CO2 as a greenhouse gas, ice age records, ocean levels.
I am asking how the climate science community (as I have been refered to address here by Bob @21) rates the impact from broad scale deforestation on climate in Australia, thats all. And a personal reply too as I am seeking dialogue.
It is specific and it relates directly (moderator, yes?) to the post subject which is what I seek to discuss.
Yours Sincerely
Mark
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Mark Thomas at 17:42 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
BaerbelW @23
Thank you for replying.
OK i will properly delve into your links to reading and viewing material, which I can see is extensive and I am up for it.
May I have a personal reply that shows the position of the climate science community regarding the relavent percentage value of broad scale land clearing to climate change. In other words, what percentage do you think is from anthropogenic CO2/methane (re main GHG's), what percentage from land clearing in Australia?
From all my years of reading and with a solid scientific research back ground, I am currently seeing broad scale deforestation in Australia is 0.75 percentage value to our climate situation in Australia, (being fires drought increase in extreme weather etc), 0.25 percentage value anthropogenic CO2/methane and the nasty CFCs.
Being genuinely honest, and look forward to sensible dialogue.
Kind Regards
Mark
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BaerbelW at 16:25 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @22
Many of your questions are answered in our MOOC „Denial101x - Making sense of climate science denial“ which also explains the basics of climate change science (but also, how and why it gets distorted).
It‘s available throughout the year until December 16 as a self-paced version on the edX platform: http://sks.to/denial101x
You can also just watch the videos via this list: http://sks.to/denial101xvideos where you‘ll also find links to the underlying scientific studies grouped by lecture/topic.
Hope this helps!
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Mark Thomas at 14:03 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Bob Loblaw @21
I am honestly describing a personal journey unfolding. I can see how it could be interpreted as insincere, or subversive but its not. This is why I use my real name. I have a bachelor of applied science, chemistry major, with a focus on enviro management of hazardous materials. I worked as a scientist for more than a decade assessing and cleaning up contaminated sites (soil and groundwater) in Australia, I have written hundreds of contaminated site reports for property development, ecological and human health risk based studies, including reviewing of contamination models. So clearly I am not a 'climate scientist'. I am here presenting myself as a citizen scientist wanting to understand more about broadscale anthropogenic impacts on the world.
I thought coming here was a place to learn a balanced view. The succession of documents I have presented, I have been finding while writing these comments . I made it clear in my first post (which is my first on a science blog site) I am sceptical about GHG as the main contributor to the understanding of climate change, and that the information I have presented regarding broadscale land clearing seems to explain the current situation to me in hand with GHG impacts. I seek knowledge on this subject. If the climate science community your refering to is aware, please share.
Your refenced document for me to read from 1979 is paywalled with a subscription, may science be free for everyone, The late great Carl Sagan I am sure would not be pleased his work is paywalled. I have endevoured to provide open source material so everyone who chooses can read.
So I ask, please engage, lets discuss, whats your opinion on this subject matter I have presented?
PS No paywalled articles.
Sincerely, Mark
Moderator Response:[DB] Research papers are often available on the web for free, as authors like to share their work. For example, the piece by Sagan is available here.
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