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Comments 8101 to 8150:
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RedBaron at 06:23 AM on 26 January 2020New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
As more and more people ignore denialists and actually begin doing what Seb V claims is impossible:
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aleks at 06:22 AM on 26 January 2020Waking up to climate change | Australia's Bushfires
According to The Sidney Morning Gerald: "A 2015 satellite analysis of 113,000 fires from 1997-2009 confirmed what we had known for some time – 40 per cent of fires are deliberately lit, another 47 per cent accidental." https://www.smh.com.au/national/arson-mischief-and-recklessness-87-per-cent-of-fires-are-man-made-20191117-p53bcl.html
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nigelj at 05:45 AM on 26 January 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #4
"The companies that have contributed most to climate change"
These sorts of scapegoating views don't help much. The trouble with this is leads to finger pointing, where people will say "governments should do something about oil companies then". "The climate problem is nothing to do with me". Now this totally distracts attention from pushing for clean electricity grids and lifestyle changes.
And what can governmnets practically do about fossil fuel companies? They are legal entities so attempts to shut them down, or cap how much oil they are allowed to produce would require massively draconian policies and people would rightly be concerned about government abuse of power. And simply shutting the companies down would cause massive economic dislocations. Although I have to say its tempting.....
Concentrate on the things that could work and are compatible with a reasonably free society. Carbon taxes, cap and trade, subsidies, fuel efficiency rules etc but set at robust levels that make a real difference. its going to hurt a bit, but there will be multiple benefits.
Shame the oil companies if you want, and executives that put personal self interest above all other things.
No doubt I will be called a denier. However Im not going to go along with stupidity.
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nigelj at 05:14 AM on 26 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
UncleJeff @19
Ouch!
"Bad science reporting"
Yes sometimes, but its not the fault of warmists and scientists. Talk to the media about that one.
The media manage to sometimes get facts wrong, but are reasonably ok on the whole. They exaggerate parts of the climate problem sometimes, yet they also miss the genuinely serious aspects of the climate problem and this is actually a bigger reporting problem. They have false equivalency between both sides of the climate debate, because they are driven by trying to get people to turn the page.
"clean energy crony-capitalism"
Not sure what you mean, but I don't think you can include subsidies for clean energy in this category of crony capitalism. Crony capitalism is favours for industry that simply don't make sense in terms of the public good. Renewables are a public good. Fossil fuel subsidies would fit that definition of crony capitalism better.
"outdated stats in the political arena"
What outdated stats? The stats for 2019s temperatures have just been released and they are the third warmest on record, or something close to that.
"It also doesn't help that certain political factions have hitched their freight to the climate issue, arousing unneeded opposition."
Agree this is a problem. But we are a free society.
"Therefore, the alarmist camp would do well to .... actively discourage the overzealous etc from discrediting climate science via sloppy reporting, opportunism etc. "
Agreed. I do this including when people hugely exaggerate. But then I get labelled a denier for my efforts.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:57 AM on 26 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
UncleJeff, that's wishful thinking. Deniers have shown over and over their willingness to argue in the most blatant bad faith, against scientific realities that they often don't even understand. I have lived through the "carbonic snow in Antarctica" days, or the averaging of percentages without weighing made by prominent deniers at WUWT. I have seen the Soon & Baliunas fiasco, McIntyre&McKitrick junk. I found the standards of the deniers camp to be essentially non existent.
What you are saying is that there has to be a double standard: deniers can be completely full of it, deliberately lie, misrepresent, cherry pick, harass, misleadingly quote stolen e-mails, threaten opponents, but advocates of a livable future must be perfect, because even honest mistakes will be exploited by deniers. Unfortunately, you're right; that is the current state of this non-debate.
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nigelj at 04:46 AM on 26 January 2020Waking up to climate change | Australia's Bushfires
Aleks @5, you should read your own wikipedia reference. The huge areas burned in 1974 - 1975 were unused grasslands in central australia. No attempts were made to put them out. This is all very different from the current situation so its a meaningless comparison.
The area burned currently in NSW comprises forests, and totals 18,000 hectares, and this is higher than total areas burned in that state in the past (something aound 12,000 hectares), so this fire season is unprecedented in area burned for NSW.
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Jim Eager at 04:25 AM on 26 January 2020Waking up to climate change | Australia's Bushfires
Aleks seems unable to discern the difference between ignition, the proximate cause of the fire, and the drying out of the bush by prolonged drought and elevated temperatures, without which ignition would not have been been so readily possible, making it the ultimate cause, regardless of the source of ignition. He is also quick to assign ignition to the random or deliberate actions of individuals, when in fact ignition in this case has overwhelmingly been the spreading of embers from one fire to cause many more fires.
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aleks at 03:53 AM on 26 January 2020Waking up to climate change | Australia's Bushfires
High air temperature itself cannot be the cause of a fire, since the self-ignition temperature of dry wood is hardly lower than for paper (451оF). In the absence of thunderstorms at this time, it can be assumed that the fires were initiated by random or deliberate actions of individuals.
As for the "unprecedented" nature of the current fires, their history since 1851 is reflected in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfires_in_Australia -
UncleJeff at 03:34 AM on 26 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
The article's thesis would be better supported if it included missteps made by the pro-crisis camp. Bad science reporting, clean energy crony-capitalism, outdated stats in the political arena etc all create paper targets for critics to aim at. It also doesn't help that certain political factions have hitched their freight to the climate issue, arousing unneeded opposition.
When well-meaning people with incomplete information see reporters, businesses and politicians slammed by newer or better facts, then the truth baby can get tossed out with the inaccuracy water. When they see historically unpalatable politics tied to all of the proposed solutions, even neutrals will get their hackles up.
Therefore, the alarmist camp would do well to first admit that not all arguments on its side are correct or helpful, and then actively discourage the overzealous etc from discrediting climate science via sloppy reporting, opportunism etc. The climate cause also isn't helped by political factions who exploit the climate crisis to advance side-causes not necessary to solve climate.
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BillyJoe at 07:29 AM on 25 January 2020Waking up to climate change | Australia's Bushfires
Nigel,
My thought as well except I was thinking "critical mass". The number of people frustrated with political inaction has reached a "critical mass" for getting out on the streets and protesting. But, of course, natural disasters, politicians coming out and voicing their ongoing denial of climate change in the face of these natural disasters, and the Greta Thunberg phenomenon are probably all factors behind the numbers reaching "critical mass".
I still have my reservations about Climate Adam's style, but horses for courses and whatever helps, but I can't help recommending Potholer again. His latest video is in response to the misinformation spread by the climate denying media about Australian bush fires. You might not want to watch 36 minutes of low key sarcasm though :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0x46-enxsA
Whatever you may think of his style, he puts a great deal of work into those videos. In this latest video, he lists the 45 references. And it's had nearly 120,000 views, so it actually gets watched despite its length.
Moderator Response:[JH] Link activated.
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nigelj at 07:25 AM on 25 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
Ive read Hayeks book "A Road to Serfdom. Its really just a short treatise (thank god for that) arguing central planning of the soviet sort doesn't work because the planners can't possibly have enough information and computing power to process it (the book was back in the 1950s I think) and so free markets with decentralised private ownership work best. I've read quite good arguments that with our better knowledge today centrally planned economies could work as well as private markets, although I think it just goes too much against our natural instinct for private ownership. It would put a lot of trust in a very powerful government.
But I don't recall Hayek arguing that goverment had no role in economic affairs such as environmental regulation. Laissez faire economics like this has a poor record, eg early Victorian England. Economic growth was good but human suffering was terrible, until they slowly introduced child protection laws etcetera.
Scandinavia has a nice model that combines the best of free market capitalism and state control and ownership where this makes sense. There's a reasonable balance between freedom and control. I doubt we will do much better. Their economic and social data is good, and climate mitigation is quite good, and this is the ultimate test of the model. But I phlosophise too much...
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John Hartz at 06:43 AM on 25 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
Is the Australian federal government singing out of the same hymnal as detailed in this article?
‘Blatant manipulation’: Trump administration exploited wildfire science to promote logging by Emily Holden & Jimmy Tobias, Environment, Guardian, Jan 24, 2020
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nigelj at 06:40 AM on 25 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
Put it this way I assume Australia's temperatures at 1.52 deg c are land temperatures, but Im not absolutely 100% sure. Do they include the oceans to the extent of their economic zone?
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nigelj at 06:27 AM on 25 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
"Globally, 2020 was 1.2°C above pre-industrial." Yes, but of course this is just an average. Australia was 1.52 degs c above even the 1960 - 1990 baseline in 2019. Canada was 1.7 degs c above this baseline.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/
But I believe these numbers are combined land / ocean data, (?) which would make Australia's land temperatures more than 1.52 degress above the baseline. Obviously this is where people live so its the more relevant number. But I'm not sure of what the 1.52 deg c number is, combined land and oceans, or just land.
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SirCharles at 06:10 AM on 25 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
I mean 2019, not 2020. Sorry.
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SirCharles at 06:08 AM on 25 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
This "new colour" can now be seen more often and longer. We have to act BEFORE all becomes irreversible!
Globally, 2020 was 1.2°C above pre-industrial.
Global Temperature Jazz - Paris Climate Accord Into the Twenties
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_dySw3kP_Q -
Steven Sullivan at 06:04 AM on 25 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
Nic Palmer @ 4: " It does tend to be US types who most have that particularly extreme notion of 'freedom' though."
Yet is was Europeans like von Mises and Hayek who were its founding fathers.
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SirCharles at 05:57 AM on 25 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
This was 7 years ago: "Australia adds new colour to temperature maps as heat soars"
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Eclectic at 20:42 PM on 24 January 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Paul @131 ,
if you consult Wikipedia more closely, you will see that you have forgotten to add in a vastly greater living mass ~ plants , fungi, and various types of mono-cellular microbes.
They all respire CO2. And even though their metabolic rate is slower than warm-blooded humans, the sheer enormous size of their biomass means that they exude CO2 at a total rate enormously higher than humans.
So there's that.
Worth consideration !
I wonder why the expert scientists are not the slightest concerned about that?
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PaulRittmann at 19:05 PM on 24 January 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
I believe breathing is a good thing and should not be interrupted for very long.
Let me summarize what seems to be relevant to people adding CO2 to the atmosphere. First, an adult produces about 1 kg CO2 each day, or 365 kg CO2 each year. Second, there are about 8 billion adults & children doing this. So how much CO2 does human respiration add each year? Here comes the math:
(8 billion people)*(50 kg/person average) = 0.4 GT live biomass
(365 kg CO2 per year)/(62 kg person) = 6 kg CO2 per year per kg live biomass
(0.4 GT)*(6 GT CO2/yr per GT live biomass) = 2.4 GT CO2 per year
For comparison, motor vehicles generate about 3 GT CO2 per year. All fossil fuels (& cement making) generate maybe 40 GT CO2 per year. It looks to me like respiration should not be discounted or ignored. Especially when livestock, earthworms, and marine critters are added.
From what I saw in Wikipedia on Biomass, the total livestock mass is about 0.7 GT. Also, the total for ants, worms, and termites is maybe 7 GT. Marine adds 2 GT. All these are rough estimates, so the total is roughly 10 GT living biomass.
If all the living things generate CO2 at the same rate we do, then the total respiration rate is 60 GT CO2 per year. This exceeds all the fossil fuels & cement production.
In conclusion, I'd say respiration is a significant source of CO2.
Moderator Response:[DB] Scientists know through due diligence that the rise in atmospheric concentration of CO2 is from the human combustion of fossil fuels due to the unique and characteristic isotopic nature of that rise and because it occurs in lockstep with the decline in atmospheric oxygen levels. Because they've done the research demonstrating both.
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Markoh at 18:55 PM on 24 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
PS @16. Here is how the Victorian Government has ignored the Black Saturday Royal Commission recommendation of 5% control burned each year up from the then current 2%.
www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/black-saturday-fire-fuel-threat-planned-burns-needed/10787050
"In the past three seasons, the number of hectares burned nosedived from 185,000 down to 65,000."
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nigelj at 17:30 PM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
Nick Palmer says " If the world had perfect information about the actual rigidly defined results and timescales of climate policies and the definite results if such policies were not employed, I think it would be very easy for the people of the world to decide what to do"
Yes, but I'm inclined to think plenty of people would still kick the can down the road and have a big party and to hell with the climate problem. There is nothing to suggest market economics and the invisible hand will lead to sensible environmental outcomes. The market works reasonably well to allocate resources, and encourage innovation and as a mechanism to avoid the problem of dictatorships and communism. That's all it really does. It can't replace sensible government functions. It can't fix every problem. And I'm a fan of free markets in a general sense, but I'm not blinkered about their limitations.
Imho looking after the environment is a complicated value judgement sort of thing that requires a set of laws, or more informal agreements and a lot of complicated trade offs, and analysis, although a lot of its commonsense as well. Personally I like the Obama doctrine "dont do stupid stuff" :)
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Eclectic at 15:59 PM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
JohnMashey @14 , thanks for that. The picture has been bleak for a long time.
Nick Palmer @13 , it would become a can of worms, to properly define economics (just as it would, to properly define democracy ).
The modern "science" of economics (think Friedman . . . and worse) tends to dismiss externalities and the bigger picture in general. As you are well aware, I'm sure. To a large degree it is divorced from evolutionary darwinism (except social-darwinism !!) and from human neurology . . . and from human compassion.
I am too cynical to accept your "perfect information" hypothesis. The basic problem is that the selfishness aspect of our human nature does override our altruistic tendencies, when we live in the anonymous conglomerates of mega-cities and mega-towns. The healthy sense of community gets diminished.
The old "Invisible Hand" concept worked well at the village level of long ago, but - as history shows us - works poorly in more modern circumstances. Today, the real Invisible Hand is cartels and Facebook and the likes of Cambridge Analytica . . . and insider-trading . . . and the newer forms of the Tragedy of the Commons.
Yet it is the standard economist "religion" that the bus will follow the best road if we push down on the accelerator and take our hands off the steering wheel.
That's a crazy religion. Realistically, we should take a giant lesson from the control systems within the biological creatures that have survived & flourished over millions of years. ~But that would go against the entrenched religious dogma of capitalism & communism & and other -isms.
Ah, getting too philosophical. Sorry.
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JohnMashey at 15:20 PM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
nigelj@11
Dark Money: Excellent suggestion for all! Jane is one of the very best investigative journalists in US, honest, fearless and a relentless digger and teller of truth.
As it happens, I've been looking at Kochs for a long time: search for Koch in Crescendo to Climategate Cacophony(2010)
or look especially at p.47 and then pp.93-95, that shows which funders give money to which organizations that do climate denial. p.96 has summaries: the 3 main Koch-related foundations (there's a 4th, but small) gave much more than Exxon. Of course, at that point I didn't know about the Kochs+allies' money anonymizer DONORS TRUST/CAPITAL FUND, which I only figured out in early 2012, updated later in Fakery 2. See pp.68-76. See also Robert Brulle's more extensive research, summarized in Study Details Dark Money Flowing to Climate Science Denial(2013). Over time, Koch direct funding down, DONORS way up as seen in graph there. Charles Koch always hated having to report recipients of money from his private foundations. Lately, Donor Advised Funds are increasingly used by some to obscure what they're doing, i.e., N donors give money to a DAF, which then writes the checks, but without identifying the sources. Occasionally one can figure that out, but only with luck.
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Eclectic at 14:01 PM on 24 January 2020Animal agriculture and eating meat are the biggest causes of global warming
Barb @46 , please don't feel any heat (metaphorically speaking). You are most welcome to post.
My principal objection to your initial comments was that you urged climate scientists to expand their advocacy into the simultaneous advocacy of veganism. IMO, such action by them (or by anyone linking climate matters and veganism) would be wrong because counterproductive (to the point of self-sabotage) in the urgent tackling of AGW.
Your economic arguments are good ~ their main weakness being because based on the assumption that the current methods of "meat production" would continue at present levels (or higher, worldwide). For all sorts of reasons - some touched on, earlier - it is likely that "farm meat" consumption per capita will decline in the latter half of this century. But it need not go down to zero, to be ecologically sound.
Your health/medical arguments are weak in their science ~ but they are a "Motivated Reasoning" consequence of your veganism . . . and there would be little point in me firing torpedoes at them. Plus, it would be off-topic.
I shall submerge to 20 fathoms, and switch to electric motors.
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Markoh at 13:23 PM on 24 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
John @15 my understanding is that bushfires do not count towards a country's emission commitments, only controlled burns add to the Paris commitment. Hence the reluctance by states to do controlled burns.
Moderator Response:[PS] what is your evidence reluctance by states to do back controlled burns? Seems to be contradicted in this factcheck.
A reminder yet again to back assertions with references.
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John Hartz at 11:27 AM on 24 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
Recommended supplemental reading:
'It's heart-wrenching': 80% of Blue Mountains and 50% of Gondwana rainforests burn in bushfires by Lisa Cox & Nick Evershed, Environment, Guardian, Jan 16, 2020
Australia's bushfires to push global emissions to new high: Met Office by Peter Hannam, Environment, Sydney Morning Herald, Jan 24, 2020
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BarbNoon1 at 11:23 AM on 24 January 2020Animal agriculture and eating meat are the biggest causes of global warming
I made the decision take the heat for returning when I said I was done, because facts matter to me, and “winning” in a discussion is not why I wrote in the comments section in the first place. I was not happy with the continuous “regenerative farming” fallacies that are here in the comments, so I am copying some of my source’s article (that I posted earlier and below).
“On the smallest scale, one cow requires a minimum of 2 acres of pasture land and 20–30 gallons of water daily. That is, assuming the two acres are fully covered with good grazing land (in some places, cows require more acreage because the pasture isn’t filled out with healthy grass for grazing). Additionally, in the winter months, grain will often have to be purchased. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume optimal efficiency, or 2 acres per cow, assuming no change in the total number of cattle and swine currently consumed in the United States, we would need more than 2.5 billion acres of land. The problem, as it happens, is that there are fewer than 2.3 billion acres in the entire United States, including all the mountains, swamps, deserts, and otherwise unsuitable land areas you can imagine. Alaska alone accounts for 17% percent of the United States’ total acreage. And remember, that 2.5 billion required acreage is only for cattle and swine. Would you like to include the 250 million grass raised turkeys, 7 million sheep, and 8 billion chickens currently consumed each year?
On the farm neighboring me [author], here in the Dominican Republic, there are 82 head of cattle on 200 acres. The farmer has told me that these 200 acres have reached maximum capacity. That’s about 2.44 acres per cow. It takes two years for a grass-fed cow to reach full maturity, at which point it can be slaughtered for about 450 pounds of flesh. That means my neighbor can expect to produce approximately 36,900 pounds of meat, every two years (82 x 450 = 36,900). He projects that we will have at least 100,000 pounds of organic produce, from our two acres of land, after two years. On two acres of land, over a two year period, one can produce 450 pounds of animal flesh or 100,000 pounds of plant produce, using almost no water, compared to the 20–30 gallons required for each cow, every day.
Can something be sustainable when it isn’t even feasible?
https://nutritionstudies.org/grass-fed-beef-a-sustainable-alternative/Eclectic, you are skilled at debating and at casting doubt on evidence. When I said you “mansplained,” I was aware you might not be male, but in my fatigue, it was the only word to describe how you treat sincere people.
I originally said I felt environmentalists should be vegan. I stand by my opinion, and all of you concerned only with CO2 can still be vegan and just talk about CO2. When animal agriculture poisons our waterways, land and air and is not an efficient way to feed the world. It’s not time for a “distribution” excuse - meat is terribly inefficient, and as many as 25,000 people lose their lives every day due to hunger; we need a better system and only veganism will feed the world and allow us to re-wild many areas.You claimed that the fertilizer spray of pig waste would be taken care of with regenerative farming, but pig waste (and all animal waste) on the ground also causes environmental issues. https://mission-blue.org/2015/02/whats-the-role-of-mass-animal-agriculture-in-ocean-degradation/
Here is a video and transcript about heart disease in children. This talks about fatty streaks in arteries. https://nutritionfacts.org/video/heart-disease-starts-in-childhood/ This next video talks about how heart disease may start in the womb. They looked at the arteries of fetuses from mothers with normal cholesterol levels and from pregnant moms with high cholesterol, and fetal arteries from mothers with high cholesterol contained dramatically greater lesions. https://nutritionfacts.org/video/heart-disease-may-start-in-the-womb/
Last, this article, from the BMJ, tells the harm of dietary cholesterol. 395 ward feeding studies. This is “not too new” or “too small.” And I did post the Framington Study earlier which was large. This study shows that whether you are genetically inclined to have low cholesterol or high cholesterol, the cholesterol you avoid in your diet is important for your health. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2125600/
I am sure you will find everything unworthy. However, I showed why every environmentalist should be vegan (unless you live with no access to grocery stores, or are some rare exception), because eating vegan is the healthy diet that helps the environment the most and I definitely showed why “grass fed, grazing or regenerative farming will not work to feed the population and will still greatly pollute.
Moderator Response:[DB] In the absence of confounding factors like associated fat intake, there's no clear relationship solely between dietary cholesterol intake and cardiovascular risk:
"Evidence from observational studies conducted in several countries generally does not indicate a significant association with cardiovascular disease risk"
Even interventional studies, while showing mild improvements in some markers, showed no significant outcomes benefit:
"the findings were not significant for the stronger predictor of CVD risk, LDL cholesterol, or HDL cholesterol concentration"Should people make healthier eating choices? Yes.
In the scheme of things, is that action bigger than switching global energy usage from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources? Not even close.
Let's keep this closer to the topic of this post, please.
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Markoh at 10:21 AM on 24 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
PS @9 if a bushfire is measured by severity rather than hectares, the 1851 Black Thursday fires are hard to beat.
After Melbourne having a record 47 degrees, 25% of Victoria burnt in one day. a ship 30 km off the coast was under ember attack. One million sheep died.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Thursday_bushfires
Moderator Response:[PS] The only "unprecedented" claim referenced by this site refers to NSW and the claim is from Rural Fire Service. " The scale of the bushfires is “unprecedented” for this point in the season, RFS spokeswoman Angela Burford said."
We like fact-checking; we dont like strawman arguments.
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Markoh at 09:49 AM on 24 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
PS @9 Yes 1973 1974 was the worst on record and burned 117 million ha. Ref Australia Institute of Disaster Respurces.
I am surprised it is not common knowledge in Australia, given the number of people claiming 2019 2020 is the worst (egged on by MSM) it is clear it is not common knowledge. I wish people would fact check.
knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-new-south-wales-1974/
as a reference, 2019 2020 has burned less than 20 million ha
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Nick Palmer at 09:45 AM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
Eclectic #9 "The idea of Rational Economic Man is a fiction from the Eighteenth Century"
I think what is left out of economic considerations is that economics assumes that markets work best, and most efficiently, if everyone has 'perfect information' to make decisions with. I can see that if that happened, then markets really would be effective at providing for needs and avoiding dangers. If the world had perfect information about the actual rigidly defined results and timescales of climate policies and the definite results if such policies were not employed, I think it would be very easy for the people of the world to decide what to do -
One Planet Only Forever at 09:40 AM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
Mbryson and others,
It may be more accurate to declare that the pursuit of expanded awareness and improved understanding and the application of that learning to develop sustainable improvements for the future of humanity is not governing human behaviour.
During the enlightenment it could have appeared likely that better understanding would govern. But the competition for status based on popularity and profitability has produced the opposite result. It has developed many harmful unsustainable pursuits that end up being very difficult to correct.
The resistance to correction can be attributed to a variety of things including the concept of Loss Aversion. Loss aversion is the reluctance to accept or pursue a change even if it may be beneficial. But it is more likely that the power of resistance is a desire to not lose any developed perceptions of status or opportunity for benefit even if it can be understood that the status and opportunity are from a harmful unsustainable pursuit.
And it is even more likely that the lack of rapid significant penalty for misleading marketing is the root of the problem. The current winners are not interested in going onto the slippery slope of having harmful unsustainable pursuits excluded from competitions for popularity and profit. And they want to keep more of any winning. They would not like to see Their downward spiral of correction of undeserved status and a future where Their pursuits would be effectively limited to helping develop sustainable improvements for humanity.
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nigelj at 09:33 AM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
Regarding JM @10, the book to read is Dark Money about The Kochs and others. This review allows you to read some interesting excerpts for free, click on look inside.
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JohnMashey at 09:19 AM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
Over decades, Big Tobacco did denialism directly, via entities like Tobacco Industry Research Council, but over time moved to use more and more "independent" entities like front groups, think tanks and most of all, the Tea Party, a joint creation of Philip Morris & Kochs, via Citizens for a Sound Economy. In the 1980s, they also created a network run by GMU's Robert Tollison of academic economists across the USA to writeopeds and testify to local legislatures. That progression is detailed in the peer-reviewed paper I summarized & linked (open access) at Desmog.
Big Fossil has followed the same path. The Kochs seed-funded a large network of thinktanks, have spent much money on academics. Most fossil funding is usually invisible, except for accidents and ExxonMobil Foundation, whose use was silly, because it was publicly visible in IRS Form990 reports and the numbers were rounding error in daily profits. They took flak, which must have amused the Kochs, as they were spending more, so they mostly quit using EMF in the mid-2000s ... but in fact, kept funding some, like ACSH (Desmog, Sourcewatch). Latest numbers I have are $75K each year 2011-2016, for example.
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John Hartz at 07:53 AM on 24 January 2020Waking up to climate change | Australia's Bushfires
Recommended supplemental reading:
Scientists hate to say ‘I told you so’. But Australia, you were warned by Will Steffen, The Conversation AU, Jan 22, 2020
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John Hartz at 07:32 AM on 24 January 2020It's CFCs
Recommended supplemnental reading:
Closing the Ozone Hole Helped Slow Arctic Warming by Chelsea Harvey, E&E News/Scientific American, Jan 22, 2020
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John Hartz at 07:29 AM on 24 January 2020It's ozone
Recommended supplemnental reading:
Closing the Ozone Hole Helped Slow Arctic Warming by Chelsea Harvey, E&E News/Scientific American, Jan 22, 2020
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Eclectic at 06:54 AM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
Mbryson, you are very correct, I think.
The idea of Rational Economic Man is a fiction from the Eighteenth Century, pre-dating the insights from Darwin, Freud, and modern psychology / neurology.
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Doug Bostrom at 06:38 AM on 24 January 2020Waking up to climate change | Australia's Bushfires
Maybe the answer to Adam's question is "all of the above."
Anecdotes:
- Skeptical Science experienced a substantial surge of usage disproportionately sourced from the US beginning the latter part of 2016 and through most of 2017. This could certainly be attributed to political events in the US.
- During January 2017 January Skeptical Science was used by 69,980 persons in Australia. This current January— so far— the site has been used by 139,371 persons in Australia, with Australia moving from fifth to second largest country traffic source for the respective periods.
- Each time Greta Thunberg gave a major address in 2019, Skeptical Science saw dramatic daily traffic surges in the immediately following period.
- Earlier in 2019 when the "XR" movement began to generate headlines of various kinds, Skeptical Science saw a correlated rise in traffic.
Our traffic overwhelmingly arrives via search on climate topics. Increased public curiousity about and awareness of the climate issue for any sufficiently conspicuous reason could be expected to result in more search leading to Skeptical Science. It's unlikely there's any single factor driving this.
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mbryson at 04:14 AM on 24 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
It's crazy-stupid that some apparently bright people deny there can be negative externalities: externalities are real, as any serious economist will acknowledge. Moreover, sometimes they aren't exactly external (that is, they affect the persons who ignore them, but later in time). I suspect, as Nigel says, that psychological issues underlie / contribute to the absurd conviction that actual human choices are always rational in the economic sense of that word--in particular, a gut-level desire to go on with BAU.
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michael sweet at 21:14 PM on 23 January 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Nigelj:
On your last post without citations you add the comment:
"Electricity grids need reactive power as you probably know. Solar and wind power are poor at providing reactive power although it may improve"
If you had read the peer reviewed paper by Brown et al I have cited for you several times you would know that this is another example of a deliberate falsehood that nuclear and fossil fuel advocates tell to make everyone think renewable energy will not work. In the past grid operators said reactive energy was not needed. There are many ways to provide ancillary services (including reactive power) cheaply in a renewable grid. In many cases if the controls are reprogrammed ancillary services can be provided for free.
The Tesla battery in Australia currently provides better quality reactive power at a lower cost than fossil generators are capable of providing. I am surprised that you are not aware this facility provides the reactive power you claim is missing from renewable energy systems.
If you read the citations you are provided you will post less obvious deliberate falsehoods. Reactive energy was not discussed in this thread before your post. It was not necessary for you to make this false claim. I hope that you are simply uninformed and not repeating claims you know are false.
Moderator Response:[PS] Your tone here is unhelpful for constructive discussion. Please keep it polite. Furthermore, please note the comments policy.
"No accusations of deception. Any accusations of deception, fraud, dishonesty or corruption will be deleted. This applies to both sides. You may critique a person's methods but not their motives."
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nigelj at 18:53 PM on 23 January 2020Waking up to climate change | Australia's Bushfires
Good video.
"What changed in 2019?"
My take. Nothing all that special about 2019, just that young people have seen Kyoto fizzle out without achieving much, and probably thought give Paris a go, now that looks ineffective so they have had enough. Same with plenty of Adults. Its not just climate that reaches tipping points, so do social phemomena. Things like attitudes and desire for change take time to develop and for silent agreement to spread, then reach a tipping point. Theres a good book on this called "The Tipping Point."
Maybe this was reinforced by bad weather, but that seems secondary. There was nothing spectacularly bad about last years weather was there? Trump may have been more of a factor with his bluster and craziness.
"And what will it take to start reducing global CO2 emissions?"
So many things have to change, and so many psychological barriers have to be removed its going to need a miracle. That or truly terrible weather lasting a solid 5 years, something thats a real step change and impossible to ignore or make excuses for like the denialists try and do. These bushfires might prove to be a big motivation.
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Eclectic at 17:41 PM on 23 January 2020It's magma
Cpske ~ check out the Myth #196 of the Most Used Climate Myths (top left corner of page).
The short story : climate is changed by alterations in the 240 watts/squ.meter absorbed by the planetary surface. The 240 figure changes somewhat with solar changes ~ alterations in solar output, over the longer term or over the 11-year solar cycle) . . . or is changed by ice-albedo alterations . . . or is changed by major volcanic eruptions throwing aerosols into the stratosphere . . . or is changed by man-made industrial pollution aerosols . . . or is changed by alteration in the levels of Greenhouse gasses (of course).
OTOH, the flow of heat from the depths of the Earth is at an average rate of 0.09 watts/squ.meter ~ so very tiny that it is rightly ignored in climate measurements & calculations. This geothermal heat flow data is determined from temperature measurements take at a range of depths in deep boreholes. There's no evidence of significant variation in this geothermal flow, nor any reason to believe it could alter the climate ~ even over thousands of years. Yes, there are magma plume hotspots (such as formed the Hawaii islands) but they are fairly steady . . . and any new hotspots are too small in area to change the planetary average (the Earth's surface area being 510 million square kilometers).
Cpske, if it's not too much trouble for you, I would be interested in having a look at the "static" you mentioned. I regularly have a look at some of the Deniosphere blogs ~ such as WattsUpWithThat [WUWT], which does occasionally (well, rarely!) have articles of minor scientific interest. But mostly the WUWT articles are rather childish propaganda . . . and the comments columns are 95% full of crackpot ideas & political ultra-extremism & more general intellectual insanity & recycled long-debunked climate "theories". WUWT can be amusing, if you find amusement in Schadenfreude. But I haven't noticed any "geothermal nonsense" there recently.
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Norm Rubin at 16:37 PM on 23 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
nigelj, you may be thinking of "the bystander effect"? The more people know about a problem and COULD do something to solve it - whether they actually are or not - the less likely any individual is to step up.
International conferences and treaties and accords are a closer fit to the Tragedy of the Commons, IMO.
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cpske at 15:03 PM on 23 January 2020It's magma
Hey, could you guys offer a refutation argument that it's magma pockets that are heating the earth, not CO2? I am seeing a lot of static about it recently and would like to post a counter-argument.
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scaddenp at 08:26 AM on 23 January 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
Blueball. A number of things. Firstly, Canada gets that headline because it has significant area in the arctic and that is the portion of earth that is warming the fastest. (eg see the video graphic at https://climate.nasa.gov/). Not a lot of cities up there.
Secondly there a couple of issues with the graphs at your link. They show monthly average daytime highs not average temperature. The mechanism of AGW warms night faster than day (eg see this paper of observations). They also present the temperatures with a range that covers all of Canada. This is good for looking at temperatures between places but given large year to year variation, it makes trends difficult to spot. You can make any trend disappear if you make the y axis big enough.
I dont know of any website that will give you quick graph of any weather station, but this website shows how to download and graph any station you like.
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Blueball at 08:00 AM on 23 January 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
Sorry, I meant for this to be one post...
I am uncertain about this claim "twice as fast", shortly after this declaration, the Liberals announced a climate emergency. I am not sure what this amounts to but the rhetoric has certainly notched up recently.
When I visit Www.yourenvironment.ca I can look at the recorded temperature of any city in Canada dating back upto 150 years and I was expecting the hockey stick graph I see so regularity here, there and everywhere. But the graph is completely flat. No discernable rise in temperature in any city in any province.
What am I to believe? Who am I to believe?
Moderator Response:[DB] The accuracy of the climate temperature station record in Canada is verified and affirmed, here:
"One last point from this CCC analysis of temperatures: it's also worth noting the magnitude of recent Arctic warming. The slope of the 30-year trend in this region is 5 to 6 C/century — a rate of warming that's much higher than the rest of the world."
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Blueball at 07:51 AM on 23 January 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
In Canada, there is a media campaign declaring that Canada is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world.
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nigelj at 05:15 AM on 23 January 2020How did climate change get so controversial?
There's another psychological / political factor. The climate issue has become politically tribal. Once the tribe takes on a position on climate, so peoples views become stubborn. Dissension is not tolerated.
I also think that ideally we dont wan't to over do the big government component, because there are some legitimiate concerns there. Yet its very difficult to see how you resolve this mess without things like a carbon tax. So I'm completely stumped over this.
But this is the thing. There are literally a dozen psychological, ideological, political and cost factors that are impediments to change. Plus the climate problem is huge and requires multiple changes. Taking all this together, I don't see mitigation and lifestyle changes adequately fixing the climate issue, or even coming close.
We might be heading towards dangerous experiments with geoengineering, or sucking CO2 out of the air with fans and neutralising it chemically. However I will continue to advocate for the more usual solutions.
Nick Palmer, similar to the tragedy of the commons but theres another name for it.
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Jim Eager at 00:43 AM on 23 January 2020Australia's heat and bushfires are signs of fundamental shifts in its climate
John exhibits exactly the kind of uncritical thinking that those seeking to intentionally disseminate climate misinformation and disinformation rely upon. 117 million hectares of dry open grass/scrub savanna simply does not compare with 10 million hectares of dense temperate forest, much of which has never burned before in recorded history.
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