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Comments 84051 to 84100:

84051. Tom Curtis at 23:30 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       EricSkeptic @184, 1) Hansen does not want to confiscate any property, SFAIK. He wants to tax certain emissions, but taxation is not theft, and is not confiscation of property. At its simplest, any person holding a property right holds that right from the state as societies agent. They hold that right conditional on those conditions imposed by the state in granting the property right, and one of those conditions is the right of taxation. Hansen also wants the state not to grant some particular types of property rights in the future, ie, rights to mine coal, oil shale, tar sands, and so on. But these are not property rights currently held, and no person or corporation has a right, of can have a right to compell the state to grant them property rights they do not possess. Finally, Hansen also wants the state to not continue granting permission to various entities to continue dumping their rubbish in to the commons, ie, CO2 emissions into air. But the air, as commons is not the property of any individual or corporation, so no individual or corporation has a right to use it as a dumping ground as part of their property rights in any other property. 2) It is extraordinarily hypocritical of you to first raise Hansen's statements in a misleading way, and then to condemn an explanation of them as "inflammatory". If you read my comments again, I accused nobody of any crime. I said I doubted one of Hansen's premises, and that further doubted a prosecutable case could be made in any event. I clearly stated that a fair minded person could disagree with Hansen on the factual basis in this issue. There is a real question as to what could be considered inflammatory in my 168, except by one keen to take offence and not particularly concerned if the remarks warranted the offence taken. Or perhaps you are defending your right to quote out of context and not be picked up on it? 3) I quite agree that motivation is a key issue, and did not draw any conclusions about any other funders of CATO for that reason among others. I do not even draw Hansen's conclusion about the fossil fuel industry because I am uncertain about their motives. And frankly, I don't care how carefully you claim to have studied the issue; you daily prove on SkepticalScience that your study has been sloppy, cherry picked or ideologically driven.
84052. Ken Lambert at 23:27 PM on 2 June 2011
       The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
       scaddenup #19 Bern #20 I have not read the latest Trenberth paper - but I will study it over the weekend. Thanks for bringing it to everyone's attention. The ocean heat story was done to death here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=3&t=132&&n=723 Pay attention to the KL and BP posts - most informative. I did not claim 'zero' heat buildup. I said "Other OHC constructions approach zero". As far as I know VS is the only 0-2000m Argo analysis. K&D found little or none in the 0-700m layers. P&J found about 0.1W/sq.m in the deep oceans below 2000m. To be pedantic, 0.1 is closer to zero than 0.9. e - I never said 'statistically significant in referring to Hansen. I said "Maybe he thought it was significant." Would "Maybe he thought it was important" do?
84053. apiratelooksat50 at 23:24 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Tom Curtis @ 138 1) While the vitriol may do poorly influence the casual reader, the fair minded casual reader will probably be more concerned about the side that sends death threats along with a torrent of vitriol both by email and in blogs; Response: I would rather not wade into finger pointing. It accomplishes nothing and only inhibits progress. Both sides are guilty of ill-mannered behavior. On another website I've received death threats and was even accused of "being a Christian", as if it were evil. 2) While possibly concerned at the frustration so evident in Sphaerica's comments, the fair minded reader would have been more concerned by the casual accusations and insinuations of fraud by scientists which have been posted by deniers on this site over the last two days, and which can be found in overwhelming numbers on denier sites, often accompanied with self congratulating posts about how high a standard of debate, and how polite the debate is on those sites. It is noticable that those accusations and insinuations pass without censor from you, while you argue that the websites that started those accusations are good sites for students to use as sources when studying science. Response: I never said such. I stated that WUWT and SKS are both good places to start, but the true sources of information should be the ultimate goal (NASA, NOAA, University of Colorado, etc...). 3) Any chance of reconciliation between climate science and deniers is entirely illusory and has been for some time. This is because the scientists insist on reporting reality, and its reality that the deniers have a problem with. Response: I agree with the denier statement, but that does not and should not cover skeptics.
       Response:

       [DB] "Response: I never said such."

       Actually, you were counseled against committing such behaviour here.

       BTW, I hope your Achilles tendon is feeling better.

84054. GuillaumeDrapeau at 23:15 PM on 2 June 2011
       Amazon drought: A death spiral? (Part 3: 2005 & 2010 droughts)
       Dear all, an article by Espinoza et al. presenting the conditions that led to the 2010 drought just got accepted for publication in GRL. You can find a preprint draft following the link below: https://sites.google.com/site/jhancarloespinoza/pubicaciones/Espinoza_etal_2011_GRL.pdf?attredirects=0 Another paper by Marengo et al. was accepted in the same journal as well. Best regards, Guillaume
       Response:

       [DB] Hot-linked URL.

84055. SoundOff at 23:09 PM on 2 June 2011
       Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming
       Follow-up ... It looks like the missing heat in Earth’s energy budget has been found. Apparently, it’s in the deep ocean. The paper below concludes “the ocean has absorbed considerably more heat than reported by observations, particularly below 700 m”. Tracking Earth’s energy: From El Niño to global warming Kevin E. Trenberth and John T. Fasullo National Center for Atmospheric Research May 15, 2011 Tracking Earth’s energy: From El Niño to global warming
84056. Bern at 23:03 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Eric(skeptic): what makes you think the fossil fuel companies actually own the carbon they peddle? They are permitted to dig it up and sell it in return for giving the state a cut, but it's not theirs to begin with. If the state (or the majority of voting citizens of the state) decides it doesn't want them to dig it up any more, what legal right do they have to do so?
84057. CBDunkerson at 22:42 PM on 2 June 2011
       Database of peer-reviewed papers: classification problematics
       Eric the Red wrote: "In such a scenario, temperatures would continue to rise as CO2 increased, but the climate sensitivity would be low as only 30% of the observed increase was a result of CO2." I've been trying for several minutes now and I still can't get the above to make any kind of sense. How much warming is caused by CO2 vs solar vs UHI and so forth is irrelevant to climate sensitivity. Climate sensitivity refers to the response of feedbacks to forcings. The only feedback you listed was 10% of warming being due to albedo changes. Ergo, the scenario you set up has extremely low climate sensitivity because the only feedback effect which exists is changing albedo and that is generating much less warming than the three forcings and one internal fluctuation you list. You could change your numbers to 90% CO2 / 10% albedo or 0% CO2 / 90% solar / 10% albedo and the climate sensitivity would be exactly the same... determined by a single 10% albedo factor.
84058. Eric the Red at 22:34 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Alexandre, First note that I am not teh same Eric. A direct carbon tax may be efficient, as long as it is not set up similar to the European cap and trade. The net result is no net change in CO2 output, with vast profits made by middle men (not to mention abuse). Remember, it was Enron who first proposed a cap and trade, because they wished to make billions off the trading market similar to their profits in the sulfur market. Some argue that they bet their future on the cap and trade market, ultimately leading to their downfall (of course the company was basically a house of cards waiting to fall anyway). Going with the assumption in your last paragraph, a combination of government taxes and credits may work best, gradualy phasing out as new technologies become common.
84059. Eric the Red at 22:17 PM on 2 June 2011
       Database of peer-reviewed papers: classification problematics
       Thanks Ari, Other posters seemed unable to comprehend the hypothetical situation, they seemed to get caught up in the actually numbers that I pulled out of the air. I purposely chose a situation were CO2 was the largest factor, but did not predominate, which was my main purpose. In such a scenario, temperatures would continue to rise as CO2 increased, but the climate sensitivity would be low as only 30% of the observed increase was a result of CO2. I would tend to classify papers which portray a low climate sensitivity as pro-agw also, although on a different thread running, I have seen people who believe this called deniers. Interesting dichotomy.
84060. Alexandre at 22:06 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Eric (skeptic) at 20:26 PM on 2 June, 2011 It seems to me that libertarians, in its over-individualistic approach, end up ignoring some emerging properties of collectivities. Diffuse externalities are something that become a problem only when done collectively by large groups. Coase's theorem is rendered useless by the practical impossibility of individual negotiation of rights, even if the externality as a whole is huge and undesired by virtually everyone. I see the carbon tax as an efficient way to internalize these externalities. It is also a fine compromise between the need to manage the externality and keeping individual rights as much as possible - it allows much more freedom than direct regulation of who can do what, for instance. I understand the Cato approach very similar to Heartland's (feel free to explain some difference I'm failing to grasp): since you cannot solve the problem simply by laissez-faire, the way out they're left with is to deny the problem itself. I suggest an exercise of imagination: consider for a moment AGW is real, and the scientific consensus is there just because the evidence points that way. What would be an acceptable policy to tackle this that would respect your ideological beliefs?
84061. Eric the Red at 22:06 PM on 2 June 2011
       Amazon drought: A death spiral? (part 2:climate models)
       Definitely. From about 1977-2005, El Ninos predominated. It is too early to extend that trend past 2005. Prior to that (back to 1950), La Ninas predominated. Most publications maintain a cyclical nature to the ENSO index, with a period of about 30 years. Much has been written about whether global warming is causing the El Nino increase, or whether the increase in El Ninos has resulted in warmer temperatures. Either way, the connection cannot be denied. Several predictions have been made recently that globally cooler temperatures will prevail this decade due to La Ninas. Stay tuned.
84062. Eric (skeptic) at 20:26 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       The paper's argument is that the owner of the establishment owns the air inside of it and his customers can decide whether their health is being risked by being there. That argument and the paper have merit and I support CATO's publishing of it.
84063. JMurphy at 19:48 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Is anyone else surprised, considering previous examples of AGW deniers also being Smoking/Cancer deniers, that CATO should have published this : The Case Against Smoking Bans
84064. Eric (skeptic) at 19:25 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       scaddenp, in the actual case of CATO being unacceptably silent on a libertarian issue (bank bailouts in 08) I wrote an email and got a full reply and there was some change eventually. I would do the same for disinformation. Dana, you missed my point, I didn't deny that Exxon funded CATO and I welcome their support of one of my favorite organizations. CATO's support of individual rights is outstanding. Tom, is it true that Hansen wishes to confiscate the property of fossil fuel companies or not? I don't see it anything other than true, his proposed fossil fuel tax does not refund any monies to the owners of the fossil fuels. Another point you may not realize is that your 401k is probably invested in some fossil fuel corporations that are not very well known as such. As for my comment being snippable, yes you are basically correct; it violates the policy against inflammatory comments. I made it because of your comment 168 which is also inflammatory. You would probably disagree and I don't envy the moderators, a no-win situation on threads like this that are inherently political and especially this thread which directly speaks to the question of motivation. My basic point is this: the difference between deniers like Exxon who funded CATO and myself (whatever label people use) is primarily motivation. Exxon is simply protecting their rights to their property. I defend libertarian principles having carefully studied the lack of direct evidence for CAGW (vice AGW) as well as the practical aspects of policy such as international trade (exporting our carbon emissions to China, etc)
84065. garethman at 17:36 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Dhogaza And what does "complete belief in climate change models" mean, anyway? No modeler holds that view. No serious student of the subject holds that view. Yet, they've proven themselves useful” To say no “Modeler?” holds that view is to deny their humanity and give them some sort of quality not usually seen in H.Sapiens. I’m looking at the people side of the debate. Humanity covers a wide field of beliefs. Most are not radical. but the fringes are covered in all directions. So for every extreme right wing believer, there will be an extreme left wing ideologue, for every barking mad right wing religionist there will be an evangelical atheist. I note there is the use of the word denier here to describe posters who reject current accepted thought. They could be also called dissidents, dissenters or lots of other titles, but deniers being generally used only in holocaust or climate related subjects is a powerful term. If we take the idea that beliefs in humans are at the end of the day spread out like a bell curve withe majority in the centre and the radical at the fringe, deniers must have an opposite group. I note in reading many passionate responses from pro and anti proponents of established science and belief, but only the anti appear to have been named and quantified. Hence my question. To doubt such a situation exists with regard to how people view the world and this subject could be described as denialist in itself. So how do we describe the mirror image of climate denialists? Posters may feel that the science is objective and largely proven so these theories are not relevant, but humans are still subjective with their own beliefs, especially when all agree there is room for doubt.
84066. Ari Jokimäki at 16:45 PM on 2 June 2011
       Database of peer-reviewed papers: classification problematics
       Few responses: Eric the Red: "For instance, where would you classifiy a paper which concluded that global temperatures were influenced by the following factors in the given percentages? CO2:30%, solar: 25%, UHI: 20%, ENSO: 15:, albedo: 10%." As the CO2 is dominant factor, and without knowing anything else about this hypothetical paper, I would put it to "pro-agw" bin. The Skeptical Chymist: "1) It would be good to be able to suggest deletion of articles or movement of articles between categories." You are welcome to do it here. I have moved the American thinker paper to "online articles" instead of "peer-reviewed". Thanks for the note. The Skeptical Chymist: "A paper listed in the 2010 skeptic articles is "Marine Reserves Enhance the Recovery of Corals on Caribbean Reefs", which is also listed under the myth "Corals are resilient to bleaching". Having had a quick look at the abstract and introduction it seems this paper is not skeptical about AWG or the threat of coral reef bleaching, but has identified a mechanism which can help reefs recovering faster from bleaching events. IMHO this paper belongs in the neutral section." Agreed. I have moved it to "neutral" bin, but if someone disagrees with this, please say so (with justification - simple indication of disagreement doesn't help much). Barry: "Hey Ari, nice to see you posting here." Thanks. I have actually made a couple of posts here before. One was on deep ocean warming and other one was just recently on a new cosmic ray research. I don't remember if there were other articles too. There's also one in the works right now. Pete Dunkelberg: "Your very first word is "Database". I don't know if you mean that, or if you are using a spreadsheet." This is a SQL database we're using.
84067. RSVP at 16:29 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       John Donovan 181 That something cooler (an igloo's ice wall for instance) can make something warmer (the igloo's inhabitant), is nothing new, but the article unfortunately attempts to prey on the reader's lack of preparedness on this subject. As far a the diagram on back radiation, it shows vectors of equal length pointing up and down, whereas there should be an overall preference for those pointing upward to be greater, for even though the CO2 molecules will in principal want to radiate isotropically, there is a higher probability for this energy to emanate towards "something" cooler (i.e. skyward). This is not unlike resistances in a parallel circuit. As you increase the number of passive resistors in parallel, the resitance decreases.
       Moderator Response: The appropriate thread is 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory .
84068. L.J. Ryan at 15:01 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       ( -SNIP- )
       Response:

       [DB] You have been counseled in proper posting here at SkS numerous times now, yet you persist in posting the same ideological off-topic comment that has not passed moderation yet.  If you persist in this endeavor, your participation privileges here at SkS will be rescinded.  Your call.

84069. Tom Curtis at 14:43 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Just one note for the fair minded casual reader: You will notice that Eric(Sceptic) in his post 169 does not acknowledge that deliberately deceiving people in the full knowledge that it will probably result in hundreds of thousands of deaths is in fact criminal. That should put into context this (as dhogaza puts it) faux outrage. You will also notice that in his outrage that anyone should libel anyone, he slips in an utterly baseless accusation that Hansen was motivated in statement because "...he wishes to confiscate the property of those companies...". He even, again without basis accuses Hansen of using a contrived method, ie, of lying about his claims of fossil fuel funding of deniers. This clearly puts into context the contrived outrage of the deniers regarding the vitriol from a poster on this thread. Their outrage is entirely without self reflection. Frequent commentators on this site are used to fresh new deniers coming on, posting a screed of nonsense complete with accusations of fraud or worse, including the most belittling language - ie, of treating it as though the standards here are the standards of WUWT. They are then outraged to have their post snipped. Even many long term denier contributors (all for all I know) habitually include sly imputations of fraud, or insulting language on a regular basis, and complain if it is snipped.
84070. scaddenp at 14:41 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       J Bob, right. How come it looks a lot less terrible complex non-linear if you assume that climate will conform to known physics and is thus a function of total forcings? If the warming is coming from some natural cycle, then where is that energy coming from ie - how is 1st Law maintained?
84071. scaddenp at 14:38 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Eric, that is an interesting statement. Would you continue to fund CATO if you became convinced that it was funding disinformation?
84072. dhogaza at 14:19 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Eric(Skeptic) makes false statements about Hansen in order to promote his faux outrage at being indirectly libeled. Precious...
84073. J. Bob at 14:18 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       KR @ 102 & 127, Interesting history of climate4you, but as I noted, I use them as a convenient source of basic data. sites (Hadley, HadCRUT, GISS, etc.), since I prefer to do my own analysis. In the long term temperature plots presented above (J. Bob @ 52), data from Hadley, Debuilt and Rimfrost formed the basis of this ~300 year analysis view. Rimfrost was picked up from WUWT, as I have no problem using sources that provide quality information, be it WUWT, RC or whatever. The above mentioned figures are only part of a more extensive set used to evaluate long term measured temperature changes. But those figures, seem to sum it up for me anyway, that there is a long term upward trend stretching back to the 1700’s, with various up’s & down’s (including ~50 year almost periodic cycles) along the way. But I don’t see a prominent effect of man induced CO2. What I do see, is a terribly complex non-linear system, that we are only beginning to scratch the surface on, and have a long way to go. Hence my feeling is that were are probably in a natural cycle, with some, yet to be qualified, effect do to human intervention. Your thoughts.
84074. jyyh at 14:16 PM on 2 June 2011
       Poleward motion of storm tracks
       And of course this isn't an isolated phenomenon though relevant in our latitudes... a small tornado observed just yesterday at ~62N. Hadley cell response: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.143.9016&rep=rep1&type=pdf storm intensification over southern ocean: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n12/abs/ngeo362.html
84075. Tom Curtis at 14:15 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Eric(Skeptic) @169, I'll pause for a moment to ponder the irony of your accusation that Hansen libelled the CEOs of fossil fuel corporations. It is ironic in that it is itself a libel, and (as I understand the law) Hansen's testimony to Congress cannot be a libel even if it were false, for it is protected by privilege. (I'm not a lawyer, still less an American lawyer, so I may well be wrong on that point). More importantly, Hansen's claims are not libellous because they are true. In particular, various fossil fuel companies have funded the Cato Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and Patrick Michaels. They also funded the Global Climate Coalition, and in doing so, it turns out, they acted against the advise of their own scientists. As to your criminal status, are you claiming that you are knowingly obfusticating the issue? In this case ignorance of the facts, while puzzling, and irrational, is a defence.
84076. Bibliovermis at 13:33 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Eric (skeptic) / Dana1981 (#169), Exxon openly admits that it funds CATO and climate-specific public policy organizations, such as the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change (CO2science.org). ExxonMobil: Public Information and Policy Research Contributions (pdf)
84077. pbjamm at 13:15 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       LJ, Do you have anything constructive to add to the discussion or are you only interested in baiting rationalists?
84078. L.J. Ryan at 13:08 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       e 171 Got it e...I'll make adjustments which meet your approval...I think. But cyber stalking, what the "heck" are talking about?
       Response:

       [DB] Try reading the Comments Policy, which spells that out for you.  Focus on the science, not the individual.

84079. L.J. Ryan at 12:01 PM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Sphaerica, DB, e, Lets see: Skeptics are Holocaust deniers, L.J. Ryan will believe in climate change when you pry the gas can from his cold, dead fingers. To be very clear, it is not the production of fossil fuels alone which potentially makes the CEOs of fossil fuel companies guilty of crimes against humanity, rather, it is the deliberate and knowing dissemination of misinformation the probable, and subsequent consequence of which is mass deaths. And my comments are too controversial (-SNIP-)...or do you fear loosing the undecided readers? Which of the Comment Policies did my deleted posts violate?
       Moderator Response: [e]

       Accusations of deception, idealogical rants and comparisons to religion, as well as cyber stalking.

       In general this thread has a bit more leeway due to the subject matter, but your deleted comments crossed the line. Note that cyber stalking is especially frowned upon, and typically results in banning. Please use this as a guideline for what is acceptable in the future.

84080. Eric (skeptic) at 11:51 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Tom, the parts of Hansen's quote that I left out and you put back make a case of libel by Hansen even stronger. The "crimes against humanity" include funding for textbooks. Does he have factual examples of such funding?* Otherwise it is not his first amendment right to accuse people of crimes, it is simply libel (calling it "opinion" was not deemed a defense by the Supreme Court). HIs motive is clear, he wishes to confiscate the property of those companies for what he deems to be a greater good. His method is clear: accuse them of nonspecific crimes using guilt by association with the tobacco companies. * I consider a reply such as "Exxon funded CATO" is a direct accusation against me to be either a small-time criminal or a useful idiot, since I am a long-time CATO sponsor at $100-200 per year.
       Response:

       [dana1981] Um, Exxon has funded Cato.  That's not an accusation, it's a fact.

84081. Bern at 11:48 AM on 2 June 2011
       The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
       Ken, if you're a genuine sceptic, then you will have skin thick enough to ignore comments such as SouthWings (which I expect the moderators may soon notice & perhaps do something about). On the other hand, your call to 'address the numbers' is quite appropriate. The post above yours, by scaddenp, does just that, and asks you for the OHC reconstructions that you're referring to in your earlier post. I'd like to see them too, because claiming there has been zero OHC buildup over the past decade or so is an extraordinary claim, and I'm sure you know what that requires. Note that we're interested especially in deep ocean heat, not just surface waters, as per Trenberth's paper that dana1981 linked in the reply to your post up above.
84082. Tom Curtis at 11:15 AM on 2 June 2011
       Ljungqvist broke the hockey stick
       RyanStarr @7, if you look closely at the red line on the graph, you will see small circles indicating each decadal average. The 10 year difference, and the additional extension on the graph compared to that printed by Lungqvist is the range between the last circle, and the second last circle, or about 0.35 degrees C. The error in Lungvist's reconstruction in the final decade, as is easily determined from the NOAA data, is only 0.332 degrees. It should be noted that the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval peaks at 0.377 in the middle ages (950-959). That is 0.011 degrees less than the instrumental record for the 1990s, and over 0.4 degrees less than the instrumental record for the 2000s. Even allowing an allowing an error in the 950s as large as that in the 1990s, the temperature anomaly (reconstructed plus 1990s error) is still only 0.528 degrees, still around 0.3 degrees below the level of the 2000s. The probability that any decade in the last 2010 years has been hotter than the 2000s is very remote. I do not know where to find the Hadcrut 90 to 30 degree index, but out of curiosity I compared the 1990-1999 average with the 2000-2009 average. The difference is 0.243 degrees. As that includes the tropics, which are noted for much lower increase in temperature, the 0.35 degree increase for the extratropics is very plausible. If you doubt it, the onus is on you to look up the extratropical data and make a comparison.
84083. Bob Lacatena at 10:49 AM on 2 June 2011
       Amazon drought: A death spiral? (part 2:climate models)
       13, 20, Michael Hauber, Trends are very, very sensitive to end point selection. As it turns out, the late seventies through about 1989 saw an extended period of El Nino activity, so any starting point in that range is going to make it look like a flat or negative trend (i.e. you're starting warm). At the same time, 2010 began with an El Nino and ended with a La Nina, so it matters whether you pick the 2010 calendar year, or something else. For example, try this link to see the trend for 1975 (a mild La Nina) to 2009 Nov-Oct, which would end prior to the 2010 El Nino, and shows a mild but clear warming trend. I'm not saying that's the right trend to pick. I'm saying it's sensitive to end points, and as such maybe looking at sea surface temps isn't the right way to do it at all. Looking at pure ENSO graphs might be better (but you still have to understand what you're really looking at, of course): or this But the trend towards more El Nino's in the last 30 years seems pretty clear (which explains your level or dropping temperature trend... if it's always El Nino, then it's going to look flat or negative).
84084. scaddenp at 10:42 AM on 2 June 2011
       The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
       KL - I missed something. As far as I know, Von Schuckmann and La Traon is the only published estimate of 0-2000 OHC for the Argos period, and that was a discussion paper on precision of ocean indicators. What other OHC constructions are you referring to and have they been published yet? I know of older 0-700m estimates.
84085. Tom Curtis at 10:32 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Eric(Skeptic) @145, I think a fair minded casual reader would recognise that it is unethical to use a quotation out of context in order to attribute to a person a more extreme view than that which he actually holds. Hansen testified before Congress that:

       "... Solution of the climate problem requires that we move to carbon-free energy promptly. Special interests have blocked transition to our renewable energy future. Instead of moving heavily into renewable energies, fossil companies choose to spread doubt about global warming, as tobacco companies discredited the smoking-cancer link. Methods are sophisticated, including funding to help shape school textbook discussions of global warming. CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are aware of long-term consequences of continued business as usual. In my opinion, these CEOs should be tried for high crimes against humanity and nature."

       (My emphasis) A fair minded person would recognise that deliberate deception which probably will, and subsequently does result in death is, or should be a crime. If I knowingly advise you that a nearby acid bath is in fact a pool of water, and encourage you to dive in, should you dive in I am ethically responsible for your death, and should be tried for murder. The probable consequences of global warming include hundreds of thousands, potentially billions of premature deaths. Deliberate and knowing deception that leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths is mass murder, ie, a crime against humanity. That the deaths will probably occur decades after the act is of no consequence. Hansen believes that the CEOs of fossil fuel companies know that global warming is caused by the burning of fossil fuels, and that it will cause the death of thousands. I am not certain that they do know that, and doubt such a claim would stand up in a court of law in the absence of revealing internal documentation as was found in the tobacco companies. What I do know is that the CEOs of fossil fuel companies have no excuse for not recognising the possible consequences of fossil fuel use from 1990 (publication of the IPCC First Assessment Report) and its probable consequence by 2001 (the IPCC Third Assessment Report). I also know that they have funded organisations which are major disseminators of denier misinformation, and several cases the same organizations that disseminated (and where paid to disseminate) misinformation for the tobacco lobby. There is at least a prima facie case that the fossil fuel industry has acted in the way Hansen describes. Therefore his opinion is rational, if probably unsustainable in court. To be very clear, it is not the production of fossil fuels alone which potentially makes the CEOs of fossil fuel companies guilty of crimes against humanity, rather, it is the deliberate and knowing dissemination of misinformation the probable, and subsequent consequence of which is mass deaths. A fair minded person might doubt the evidence is sufficient to conclude the CEOs have acted in this way, but they would not doubt there is evidence to suggest that they have, and nor do I believe they would doubt that such activity should be criminal. What the fair minded reader also would conclude is that, apparently, you have truncated the context of Hansen's quote in order to make his opinion seem more extreme. They would consider that unethical, because plainly it is. It is possible, of course, that you have merely made the accusation against Hansen without checking the context. The fair minded reader would probably find making accusations on partial information also unethical. Finally, the fair minded person would probably consider making accusations of crimes against humanity against people for accepting, and acting on the consensus of 97% of experts in a field, with no forseeable consequent deaths is unacceptable. They would probably be even more appalled when such accusations are made to an audience, a significant number of whom are known to be sending death threats to prominent people whose opinions they disagree with. They might consider such accusations a form of incitement. But that is exactly the accusation that Christopher Monckton has made against former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd.
84086. e at 10:15 AM on 2 June 2011
       The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
       Ken >"Why would Jim Hansen draw a conclusion from a 6 year period at all? Maybe he thought it was significant.", The problem arises when you blindly extrapolate short term trends to draw conclusions about the long term without considering the underlying physics. That does not imply that one cannot analyze short term periods at all, which would be a ridiculous claim. You are also confusing "statistically significant" with "significant" as in important or noteworthy. Six years are not enough to establish a statistically significant long term global trend, and Hansen never claimed otherwise. That does not mean that those years are unworthy of study or discussion. You are conflating two distinct concepts and arguing a strawman.
84087. Ken Lambert at 09:55 AM on 2 June 2011
       The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
       Dan Olner & Dana1981 If your mildly amusing sarcasm can allow for a peek into the world of logic, you might conclude that Jim Hansen is also discussing 'short term' variation - in this case 2005-11 - a 6 year period of OHC reduction. Why would Jim Hansen draw a conclusion from a 6 year period at all? Maybe he thought it was significant. [ -inflammatory comment snipped-]
84088. Stephen Baines at 09:38 AM on 2 June 2011
       Ljungqvist broke the hockey stick
       Looking at those noaa data...The proxy values and the measured temps agree up until the last point when the reconstruction underestimates the measured temps extratropical temps by >0.3 C! Evidence of proxies failing now in the face of warming? There was also a 0.2C jump from 1990-2000 (the last year of shared record) to 2000-2010 in HadCrut NH. The fact that the extratropical data will have larger anamolies than the NH data contributes even more to the discrepancy. In any case, the current measured decadal NH anomalies (>0.5C) are clearly well above any reconstructed values. And the extratropical values will differ even more. I don't see what RyanStarr is complaining about.
84089. Ken Lambert at 09:20 AM on 2 June 2011
       The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
       michael sweet #12 The 11 year Solar ripple has an amplitude of about 0.25W/sq.m top to bottom. From a mean, it can only account for half that amplitude - 0.13W/sq.m reduction in the imbalance. The total reduction of the imbalance is 0.31W/sq.m so Solar minimum accounts for less than half. Don't forget that Hansen's 0.59W/sq.m is based on the Von Schukmann OHC construction which is far from robust. Other OHC constructions approach zero. Let me know when China and India stop buying Australian coal to turn into CO2 and aerosols. China is opening the equivalent of Australia's total coal fired capacity EVERY YEAR for the next 10 years. Could someone explain to a person not born in the 1980's (me) what is 'trolling'? I have not completed a course in SKS-speak.
       Response:

       [DB] "Could someone explain to a person not born in the 1980's (me) what is 'trolling'?  I have not completed a course in SKS-speak."

       From the Wiki:

       In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.

       Note that any SkS usage is the same as above.

84090. Michael Hauber at 09:13 AM on 2 June 2011
       Amazon drought: A death spiral? (part 2:climate models)
       I still see a cooling trend for the main nino tongue even when trending from 1974. Considering that 74 was the start of a very strongue multi-year cool event, and the world as a whole has warmed up significantly since 1974, I think the cooling is quite significant, even though it doesn't look like much. The cooling tongue and doesn't really cover the nino 3.4 region, but I bet the areas in the east that it does cover are the ones most important for Amazon rainfall. And by cooling tongue I include all the white area which in absolute terms is neither cooling, or warming, but relative to the rest of the world is cooling.
84091. dhogaza at 08:44 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       And I am of the opinion that the Washington Generals would beat the Miami Heat four straight in a seven game series if they ever met on the basketball court. In fact, I'm willing to bet Adrian Smits' life savings on that!
84092. Bob Lacatena at 08:33 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       163, adrian smits, Okay, now that's really interesting. You are of the opinion that... Doesn't that strike you as funny? Read the words. Opinion. As if you get to believe whatever you want, as in choosing a religion or a political candidate to support. You do understand the problem here, don't you? Do you think maybe you could quell that opinion for a while, and instead invest a goodly amount of time into researching the facts, so that you can ultimately replace that opinion with, oh, I don't know, maybe a confident understanding of the situation, and the likely (not desired) outcomes?
84093. scaddenp at 07:58 AM on 2 June 2011
       Ljungqvist broke the hockey stick
       Well I checked the Ljungqvist data at noaa and its definitely through to 2000. The overlay doesnt match HadCrut NH 2000-2010 but you expect extratropical to be higher. I cant find an easy way to extract that time series.
84094. JMurphy at 07:53 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       Let's see the evidence for your opinion, adrian smits.
84095. adrian smits at 07:46 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       I am of the opinion that negative feed backs will limit the long term contribution of co2 doubling to one third of its actual forcing in the atmosphere! That would amount one third of one degree C by 2100.There would of course be an additional amount of warming from another doubling in another 300 years but that would require every every barrel of oil and ton coal on the planet.Somehow I don't see that as very likely!
       Response:

       [DB] Unless you can offer up some physics-based mechanisms to justify said opinions you are telling us that you are a climate denier.  Given that the climate has already warmed from pre-industrial CO2 levels by more than your vaunted one-third of 1° C.

       Is that correct?

84096. scaddenp at 07:35 AM on 2 June 2011
       Amazon drought: A death spiral? (part 2:climate models)
       Its interesting watching those models Rob. Last month only one model was predicting El Nino. Now its nearly half. The variance in opinion suggests some really fundamental differences even in the physical models. It looks like a fascinating area to be be working in.
84097. Chris G at 07:29 AM on 2 June 2011
       The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
       This will might brighten your day, not. Prospect of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2ºC is getting bleaker
       Response:

       [dana1981] Indeed, we have a post on this bleak news coming in the very near future.  Stay tuned.

84098. scaddenp at 07:29 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       "I don't know what evidence would be sufficient for a denier at this level." That's the reason I asked - there is absolutely no point having discussions with anyone (Poptart springs to mind) who can imagine no evidence that would change their mind (or demand that climate theory comply with predictions that it doesnt make). On the other hand, for more open-minded people, this is a very good (the scientific) way to think about the issues involved. A lot of denial is rooted in political values (anti-Gore, anti-greenie, stinking taxes, World gov'nment) and its interesting to see whether such people can consider the hypothetical question of what action should be done if they were convinced it was true. I'm hoping that from such discussions, we might actually find effective policy directions that are acceptable to conservative/right wing values.
84099. Bob Lacatena at 07:24 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       L.J. Ryan will believe in climate change when you pry the gas can from his cold, dead fingers. And even then he'll still insist that it wasn't due to CO₂, because that would violate the 2^nd Law of Thermodynamics, you know, the one that says deniers can apply any hard science and mathematics they like, as long as they do so incompletely and with a flawed understanding, because to actually understand and apply the science properly would lead to the wrong conclusion (i.e. the correct, real-world, truthful conclusion that they don't want to reach, no matter what the cost).
84100. pbjamm at 07:19 AM on 2 June 2011
       Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
       This 'conversation' is incoherent.

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