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Comments 85301 to 85350:

85301. Marcus at 20:50 PM on 21 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       "my argument is that it would be very weird to prevent people from using their car for their all day life and allow them to travel over long distances - most people would probably prefer keeping the former and giving up the latter." Which is an incredibly *weak* argument, & will remain so no matter how many times you say it. *All* air travel-both domestic & international-makes up barely 3.5% of *all* CO2 emissions, whereas driving cars contributes about 15% of all CO2 emissions. So you see that giving up the latter will do almost *nothing*, whereas even *reducing* our car use will do so much more. Also, whereas there is no useful substitute for air travel, there are plenty of useful substitutes for individual car travel-car pooling, tele-commuting & public transport-just to name a few. So you see, contrary to your claims, I think that people *will* be more likely to give up their current usage of cars-which will have a much greater impact on climate change-than to give up international plane flights-which would have minimal impact on climate change anyway. Still, Jarch, thanks for reintroducing everyone here to a typical Denialist Argument-totally illogical & poorly constructed....and based on total fallacies. "the issue is that if the 1m SLR is real, it is impossible to slow it significantly before 2050." Well, given the weakness of your other argument, how can *anyone* put even the tiniest amount of trust in this claim. Any slowing of the trajectory of warming & sea-level rise *now* is better than just letting things not only continue at their present rate but, given your preferred scenario, proceed at an ever accelerating rate. Its true we might have to eventually evacuate those on the threatened atolls but, when they are evacuated, I hope they sue people like you who delayed action on climate change for the past 20 years with your incredibly dopey arguments. Still, given your obvious troll-like behaviour, I think its pretty obvious that you're just Gilles under a different name. I suspected it earlier, but now I feel its confirmed-& I'd be quite happy for Moderators to delete comments #15-#22, to prevent this topic being completely hijacked yet again.
85302. jarch at 19:57 PM on 21 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       Marcus, my argument is that it would be very weird to prevent people from using their car for their all day life and allow them to travel over long distances - most people would probably prefer keeping the former and giving up the latter. "The issue right now is to slow the trajectory of warming" the issue is that if the 1m SLR is real, it is impossible to slow it significantly before 2050. You could only change the date by a couple of years, which is much smaller than the uncertainty on what will really happen, and without changing the final issue - so you would have to prepare the evacuation of the threatened atolls in any case.Do you know what a time scale is ?
85303. Marcus at 18:26 PM on 21 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       "I said that IF the 1m SLR is real, then mathematics also tell us that it is impossible to stop before 2050, whatever we do, because the phenomena you're describing need several centuries to change." This is, again, a very very weak argument for taking it slow or-worse still-doing nothing at all. The issue right now is to slow the trajectory of warming, & thus slow the rate of acceleration in current sea-level rises. This *will* have the impact of giving us more time before all of these Atolls are permanently drowned, as well as reduce the length of time we need to wait before the Atolls are above sea-level again. Of course it *would* have been better had we acted sooner-you know, when we first had the evidence, but people such as yourself made sure *that* never happened. Still, no doubt you & Gilles would get along well, given that you so clearly think alike.
85304. Marcus at 18:22 PM on 21 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       Again Jarch, a long haul aircraft generates approximately 230g of CO2 per passenger-km of travel. A single, mid-sized car generates approximately 280g of CO2 per passenger-km. Guess how many cars in the world there are Jarch? Guess how many kilometers they travel every year Jarch? Fact is that you could *quadruple* the number of people currently engaged in international flights & it would still not come close to the total CO2 contributions of car travel-let alone electricity consumption. Also, domestic flights have a *larger* Carbon Footprint than International Flights, which just makes your argument even *weaker*. Like I said, if you're going to try & defend the fossil fuel industry, then you're going to need a far stronger argument than "oh, we have to protect the economy of those poor Atoll dwellers", because your basis for that argument is completely flimsy & bogus.
85305. Marcus at 18:15 PM on 21 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       Jarch, to put it into some context for you. An average sized car generates slightly more CO2/passenger-Kilometers of travel than a Long Haul international flight (assuming the only travel done is at peak hour). Of course, in the space of a single year, most car commuters will travel more kilometers in their car than they will in either domestic or international travel. I think you need a better argument for inaction on fossil fuel consumption.
85306. jarch at 18:11 PM on 21 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       Marcus, I doubt that keeping the long distance vacations would be a highest priority if there is a strong pressure to reduce the use of fossil fuels, and that bioalgae (or worse solar powered planes !!) would be able to power all airplane companies, not speaking of allowing a large majority of the world population to access them. Air travel are a minor component only because they are accessible only to a very tiny part of the population - and atoll economy is accordingly a very tiny amount of the world economy. Are you suggesting that the world should do everything to allow a very tiny part of the population to have vacations, to allow an even tinier part of the economy of very small countries to survive ? well if you extend this thought to all kind of activities, I don't see how we would reduce our overall consumption !! obviously you didn't catch the first argument : I didn't say Dickinson's predictions aren't "accurate" (also they publish two hypothesis differing by a factor two, so I don't know which of them is "accurate" ?) : I said that IF the 1m SLR is real, then mathematics also tell us that it is impossible to stop before 2050, whatever we do, because the phenomena you're describing need several centuries to change.
85307. Marcus at 17:50 PM on 21 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       "Stopping the use of fossil fuels , and hence probably suppressing overseas vacations, would probably impact the economy and the population much more cruelly than a SLR at 3mm/yr." Yes, this is a common Straw-man argument brought up by the Denialist Industry-one which fails on several key facts: 1) No-one is talking about the immediate & complete cessation of fossil fuel use, so why mention it at all? We're talking about a significant reduction in the fossil fuel component of domestic electricity & fuel. 2) Air travel is, currently, one of the *smallest* contributors to total GHG emissions, per capita, so will almost certainly be a lower priority than the GHG emissions from electricity generation & domestic travel. 3) Pilot studies have already shown at least one viable, carbon neutral substitute for aviation gasoline (algae derived bio-fuel). Also, with the first ever successful solar powered flight this year, solar powered planes (of one kind or another) will probably dominate our airways by sometime in the latter half of this century. 4) Another GFC will probably hurt the economy of the Pacific Islands much more heavily than an immediate cessation of all fossil fuel consumption-which merely highlights how we should be doing more to help these economies transition to a more stable source of income-rather than using that instability to justify inaction on climate change. The first part of your argument is equally weak, as you've clearly ignored the fact that (a) melting of fresh-water ice is *accelerating*-not remaining constant & (b) this is coupled with ever increasing thermal expansion of sea-water, which will accelerate the sea-level rise even further. So in fact the predictions by Dickinson are probably very accurate. Would you be prepared to bet your home, & life, on the prediction being wrong Jarch? Then don't be so quick to bet other people's lives & homes so quickly on such weak assumptions.
85308. jarch at 17:24 PM on 21 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       " Dickinson 2009 has constructed a table of estimated crossover dates for Pacific atolls. These are dates, based on projected rates of sea level rise, where the solid reef foundations are over-topped. Generally these cross-over dates occur mid 21st century at the earliest." The report forgets to say that these dates are based on an extrapolation of the SLR to 1m in 2100. If it were only 50cm, the cross-over dates would only be after 2100 - it it keeps on rising of course. Also a rarely mentioned fact is that the 1 meter SLR predicted by Rahmstorf et al. implies a quadratic acceleration term, which is only possible with a long timescale response where dL/dt is proportional to T (instead of L prop to T). But this implies also that the current SLR is well below the equilibrium value and will continue whatever we do, for centuries. In other words : if the SLR exceed 50 cm, it means that the long timescale term is large, and there is no hope to stop it before 2050. If not , there is no need to do it . Another side remark is that the economy and the population of atolls have exponentially risen because of the tourism industry , which have cause a massive arrival of tourists and the associated employees. Stopping the use of fossil fuels , and hence probably suppressing overseas vacations, would probably impact the economy and the population much more cruelly than a SLR at 3mm/yr.
85309. angusmac at 16:43 PM on 21 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       Albatross@104, I totally agree with your quotations, especially John Adams regarding facts.

       Regarding your statement that I am trying to convince myself that "equilibrium sensitivity in not near +3°C." This is patently untrue. I stated @81 and @103 that Dana's Scenario D with a sensitivity of 2.7°C gives good results.

       I fully understand your "ad nauseum" reasoning that two errors may be cancelling each other out to give the correct answers in Scenario C. This is why I suggested Hansen's aerosol strategy to correct Scenario B. I am willing to wait for a few years (but not ad infinitum) to determine if real-world temperatures will start to follow real-world emissions again or if they will continue to bump along the commitment trajectory. The date of 2015 suggested by Hansen (2006) seems as good a time as any to determine which trajectory real-world emissions are following.

       You may wish to consider Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

85310. adelady at 16:28 PM on 21 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Sorry, missed the link.
85311. adelady at 16:27 PM on 21 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       There may be many processes and oceanographic phenomena we don't yet understand. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/05/110518130921.htm I noticed this point as relevant to some of the discussion. "... scientists were able to document similar fluctuations of the "Deep Jets," deep currents down to 3000 m with speeds of 10-20 cm/sec. They flow along the equator, crossing the entire Atlantic, with flow reversals every few hundred meters. "These jets are generated in the deep ocean, and their energy apparently propagates upwards through the water column. Once near the surface, this energy affects currents and temperatures ..." I have no idea how many other such tremendous forces may be moving gigantic volumes of water around in this and other regions, but I'm certain there are some.
       Response:

       [DB] Hot-linked URL.

85312. Tom Curtis at 12:07 PM on 21 May 2011
       Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature
       Rosco @17, you have plainly confused the graph from Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1999) with graphs of a tree ring based proxy by Keith Briffa which has never received the prominence of the MBH graph. In Briffa's tree ring data, some of the data sets show a decline in tree ring width and/or density after 1960, and hence are not a good proxy for temperature after 1960. There is good reason to think they remain good proxies for temperature prior to 1960, however (although some dispute that). In contrast, the data from MBH, comes not just from tree rings but from a variety of proxies. Further, the tree rings used in MBH 99 do not show any decline after 1960. In other words, there was no decline to hide in MBH 99. "Hide the decline" has nothing to do with MBH 99 except that MBH's results have been published alongside Briffa's results in some publications. Some denier's have, of course, deliberately fostered the confusion which you are exhibiting. So, very plainly your accusation that scientific data has been used to mislead is misplaced. The "misleading" here is purely a function of your own confusion on the issue, and the deliberate fostering of that confusion by leading deniers - something the main stream media give them a free pass on.
85313. stranger at 11:52 AM on 21 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       The larger world problem of the melting of the Greenland ice-sheet is simply that it relieves the pressure on the volcanoes underneath ... as in the past when it melted the ash with block out the sun when all those volcanoes erupt at once ... global warming will thus lead to a scenario like nuclear winter with crop failure and mass starvation worldwide alongside devastation of nature ... ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ).
       Response:

       [DB] 2 part answer, my friend:

       1. The science as we yet understand it does not lend itself to increased volcanism brought about by isostatic rebound due to removal of the overburden of ice.  Crops may well be devastated by flood or drought, yes.
       2. This is a science-based website.  No matter my personal convictions, we must remain true to our host.  You are welcome to comment on the science-based topics of any thread herein, but take care to remain on-topic.  As for the rest of your comment, the hour is not known, so fear not.
85314. Rosco at 10:13 AM on 21 May 2011
       Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature
       I remember seeing this used as "proof" of global warming. The Media grabbed it with glee and it became a sensation world wide - the fact that it was "cobbled" together from proxy results and real data received no cover and why would it given today's media is sensation driven. Whether the sensational reception it received was intended by either the author or the IPCC is a point only they can answer. My view is that it suited the message the IPCC wanted to portray at the time. It was exploited for their propaganda purposes whilst it had usefulness. As such it is irrelevant whether it has any scientific validity - the fact is it was portrayed to be "proof" of a relationship that the IPCC has been trying to validate for decades in a deceptive manner - not by hiding the issue of the decline but by the cynical reasoning that the public wouldn't care about an argument over the worth of the graph when a simple viewing "proves" we are on a path to thermal hell and any idiot can clearly see that. This cynical use of this graph explains the huge backlash after the so-called climategate affair. If the public held onto the idea of global warming and respected the graph and the "proof" it implies then no wonder the feeling of betrayal and loss of confidence when the "heart" of the belief is held up to public scrutiny in a negative way and people realise this graph may have been "concocted". Combined with the dropping of the term global warming in favour of climate change and you have sown the seeds of doubt inexoribly into the public consciousness. The sceptics have no problem in this - their point of view is seen as consistent - they always doubted and now they have been shown to have been not as stupid as portrayed. Again, I don't know if the reality of this graph was adequately disclosed at the time - I never checked myself - I trusted and believed - and this was clearly the intent of the IPCC. The mere fact that there was a data problem and the was overcome by adding a different data set to achieve a desired outcome is a difficult perception hurdel to overcome when all the pro side can say about sceptics is they are either stupid or corrupt. Nothing is more corrupt to the public than using scientific data to mislead and this is clearly what happened - no matter what the arguments about disclosure - the public see one thing as presented - few dig any further.
85315. dana1981 at 08:39 AM on 21 May 2011
       Shapiro et al. – a New Solar Reconstruction
       I believe they're based on two different Berrylium-10 proxy data sets, Alex.
85316. Alex C at 08:24 AM on 21 May 2011
       Shapiro et al. – a New Solar Reconstruction
       Hey Dana, good post. Quick question: in the Shapiro TSI graphs, what do the blue and red trends respectively signify?
85317. dana1981 at 05:45 AM on 21 May 2011
       Shapiro et al. – a New Solar Reconstruction
       Alexandre - yes, in calculating the expected temperature change, I incorporate the climate sensitivity, which is based on feedbacks. So feedbacks are accounted for in these calculations.
85318. Alexandre at 03:22 AM on 21 May 2011
       Shapiro et al. – a New Solar Reconstruction
       Hi Dana, Thanks for your post. It's instructive to cross check findings with the bulk of the available data. When you say, for example, 0.75 W/m2 more TSI would lead to a hypothetical calculated 0.15ºC warming, are feedbacks already counted in? Wouldn't those first 0.75 W/m2 of solar forcing lead to other feedbacks, which would in turn result into a larger total radiative forcing? Please help me understand this.
85319. Albatross at 02:09 AM on 21 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       Angus @103, "Therefore, Scenario C temperature projections should be below observed temperatures but this is obviously not the case. " For crying out loud Angus, the reason for this has been explained to you ad nauseum. One really has to wonder if you are being deliberately obtuse on this point, or repeatedly repeating a falsehood in the hopes that is becomes true. Scenario C is relatively close to observations (for now at least) because of because of two errors: too low emissions run used as input into a climate model with too high a sensitivity (~4.2 C for doubling CO2). Instead of accepting the fact that Lindzen's hypothesis is woefully wrong and cannot explain the observed warming (the point of the post), you seem to be doing everything you can to convince yourself that equilibrium sensitivity is not near +3 C for doubling CO2. Two quotes for you to think about: "Beware those who deride predictive science in its entirety, for they are also making a prediction: that we have nothing to worry about. And above all, do not shoot the messenger, for this is the coward’s way out of openly and honestly confronting the problem" [Dr. Kerry Emmanuel] "Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." [John Adams]
85320. Albatross at 01:14 AM on 21 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Stephen @124, Thanks. BP is also very likely not comparing apples with apples-- he is conflating different data. And notice how the goal posts have shifted...the 'skeptics' are shown that heat uptake is occurring in the deep ocean waters and that doing so increasing the positive slope in OHC, the 'skeptics' do not acknowledge that but instead then ask how heat uptake can occur down to 2000 m or deeper. That is addressed, the 'skeptics' ignore that, and then try to demonstrate that that is not what is happening and that it is 'unphysical' using data from different datasets (yes Argo, but with different assumptions, post processing, corrections etc.) . And note how they repeatedly refuse to answer this question: "And again, please provide some context--what the does this all have to do with Lindzen's illusion about the warming arising from internal variability?" It has been presented bold text, underlined text, so I know they have seen it.
85321. Stephen Baines at 00:33 AM on 21 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       I want to add that, from an oceanography viewpoint, the real value of the Argo floats isn't in balancing the global heat balance, important though that is. The oceanographic interest is in understanding the interaction between water masses at depth, and the implications for fluxes of matter, energy and, ultimately, biological processes. Of course, the findings will impact climate science. We know very little about deep sea processes, and I'm sure there will be surprises ahead. Exciting times for physical oceanographers!
85322. Tom Curtis at 00:27 AM on 21 May 2011
       Oceans are cooling
       Charlie A, I would agree that the total OHC would be a reasonable proxy for global radiative imbalance. Obviously the more heat reservoirs you include (ice melt; atmospheric heat; land heat) the better it is. Conversely the more restricted the Ocean Heat you measure (top 700 meters, top 300 meters) the less valuable a proxy it is.) Having said that, it seems evident that flows between different heat reservoirs in the climate system are large relative to the annual increase in OHC. Also measurement error prior to 2005 has to be considered significant at annual resolution. Therefore I would not consider annually resolved OHC a good proxy at this time.
85323. Stephen Baines at 23:55 PM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       "Are we being asked to believe that warmed surface water travels down through a 700m column of water of lower temperature without giving up heat to that column?" All that is required is for heat in the 0-700m layer to be transported to deeper water at a rate that balances the influx into the 0-700m layer from above. Remember, surface waters are sandwiched between the atmsophere and deeper waters. The heat balance of surface waters is governed by inputs/outputs from above and inputs/outputs with deeper waters. A lot of heat can move through surface waters without there being a net gain in heat in surface waters.
85324. Ken Lambert at 23:30 PM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       BP #121 "On the other hand the studies do not provide any description of a conceivable physical process that could accomplish such a quest. Nor could I find other studies attempting the same. Therefore if one does not "fully understand that there are mechanisms by which deep ocean heat uptake can occur" without ever touching the upper layers, one is not alone" Precisely. If heat is being found by VS and Levitus in the 700m to 2000m range and NOT in the 0-700m layers, then a physica;l explanation is necessary. Are we being asked to believe that warmed surface water travels down through a 700m column of water of lower temperature without giving up heat to that column? For that to occur the warm surface water must be packaged in insulated bags which suddenly pop open when propelled below 700m. Albatross #122 "Anyhow, IIRC, you both seem to think that the heat cannot be going below 700m, and if it is, only a trivial amount is. Now above you seem to be arguing that too much heat is being mixed downwards, although I'm pretty sure that that deduction is probably b/c of the above-mentioned issues" No, what BP is saying is that heat cannot travel below 700m without showing up in the 0-700m layers. That means that one could have heat in both places, but heat travelling from the top down must produce a warm gradient through the column however far down it goes.
85325. Charlie A at 23:22 PM on 20 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       Main article: "Thousands of guyots are spread throughout the Pacific. These were once coral atolls, but "drowned" when they passed the Darwin Point." Does anybody have a map that shows the geographical distribution of Guyots? The ones I have heard about, such as the Emperor seamounts are at the far northern or far southern reaches of coral growth areas. In looking at peer reviewed literature, I see discussions of Darwin point in terms of latitude such as varying between N24 and N30 degrees, depending upon the geologic era. Are there numerous Guyots in the tropics?
85326. Charlie A at 22:33 PM on 20 May 2011
       Oceans are cooling
       I see Pielke Sr's graph no more cherry picking than are temperature anomalies. Anomalies are looking at changes in temperature. Pielke's graph is looking at changes in OHC. @Tom Curtis -- do you agree that the change in OHC, at least in theory, is a good proxy for the global radiative imbalance ? If you agree, then the question becomes, over what period must we measure OHC in order to get a reasonably accurate estimate of radiative imbalance over that period. Obviously, with poor spatial and temporal distribution of samples, the period over which one must average must be longer. With more complete coverage, such as with Argo over the last several years, the period over which we can accurate deduce global radiative imbalance becomes shorter. ------------------------- When looking at temperature anomolies, the absolute temperature becomes less important. When looking at the OHC to diagnose radiative imbalance over the last 8 (or 6, or 5) years, the absolute starting point of the OHC graph is not relevant.
85327. chris1204 at 21:01 PM on 20 May 2011
       Polish translation of The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
       Gratuluję i życzę powodzenia moim kolegom w Polsce. Krzysztof1204 Translation Congratulations and all success to my Polish friends. Chris1204 (yes I happen to be Polish)
85328. Paul D at 20:00 PM on 20 May 2011
       Polish translation of The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
       Cool, I'm continually amazed by the amount of effort that is made by such a diverse bunch of people, who have never met and get no payment for their efforts.
85329. JMurphy at 19:00 PM on 20 May 2011
       Abraham reply to Monckton
       KaneWilliams, a thread at The Blackboard, which contains the following email from Abraham, should interest you : Lucia, on June 10 he sent me this document. It sounds like he hasn’t changed it since then. My reply is that I continue to stand by my work, I invite people to view it and come to their own conclusions. Finally, my university has not asked me to remove the presentation. How is that for a reply? As should these links : Monckton embarrasses himself further Monckton's response to John Abraham is magnificently bonkers Monckton's reply to Abraham, and how science really works By the way, it is never a good idea to use links to WUWT - unless you include some humour or irony in your comment...
85330. Gareth at 17:35 PM on 20 May 2011
       Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
       Hi Dana - yes, you have him nailed. He is an honorary fellow of the Royal Society of NZ, because he did much good work in NZ. He gets (arguably too much) of a free ride from senior NZ academics because he was helpful in many of their early careers.
85331. Rob Painting at 16:02 PM on 20 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       Stephen Baines, re- guyot depth, actually I was certain my original reference was correct, but couldn't find the study where I got that information from (my computer is a jumble of thousands of papers and links). I've altered the text, to avoid further quibbles.
85332. Rob Painting at 15:56 PM on 20 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       Charlie A -most summits lie 1,000 to 2,000 metres (3,300 to 6,600 feet) below sea level-Yes. That's pretty deep to be a drowned atoll" See Flood 1999 (link provided in the advanced version), the seven guyots drilled were between 1-2 kms below sea level. A lot can happen over the course of tens of millions of years.
85333. angusmac at 15:54 PM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       @100 to 102, I do agree that aerosols could turn out to be a "Faustian Bargain". I also agree that they would probably be a temporary blip similar to Schmidt's 1940s aerosol blip.

       The use of aerosols was my suggestion for getting Scenario B to work if you wished to use a sensitivity greater than the 2.7°C used in Dana's Scenario D.

85334. angusmac at 15:53 PM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       @97 to 99, I am aware that Scenario C emissions have been significantly lower than real-world emissions since 2000. Therefore, Scenario C temperature projections should be below observed temperatures but this is obviously not the case. Real-world temperatures track Scenario C very closely from 1958 to present. Coincidence? Perhaps.

       Dana addressed this problem with his 2.7°C sensitivity Scenario D and achieved good results. However, this change is not "minor". It has resulted in the 2019 temperature projections plummeting from 1.57°C/1.10°C in Hansen (1988) to 0.69°C in Dana (2011).

       This is a dramatic drop of either 0.88°C or 0.41°C depending on which version of Hansen 1988 you prefer.

85335. Stephen Baines at 14:52 PM on 20 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       scaddenp Yes, that's of course correct. I was thinking in terms of guyots formed during the last few glacial cycles, as that is what the post focuses on. But older guyots could get quite a bit deeper as plates move. There is a technical definition that a guyot has to be a certain height above the seabed. I thought it was 1km, but that's from memory.
85336. scaddenp at 14:31 PM on 20 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       Just remember that any seamount can deep below current sea surface because of subsidence, not that sea was once that low. Mid-ocean ridge volcano cones move into deep water as the ocean crust subsides and the plate expansion moves it away from the spreading center. Determining whether something was once an atoll in its dim and distant past would at first look involve looking at morphology.
85337. Charlie A at 14:09 PM on 20 May 2011
       Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling
       #2 Stephen Baines "Rob, when you say a Guyot is 1500 m "below the sea surface", I think you mean "above the seafloor." That would be pretty deep to be a drowned atoll." A number of references indicate that 1500m below the sea surface is not atypical. For example, Encyclopedia Britannica: "In the Pacific Ocean, where guyots are most abundant, most summits lie 1,000 to 2,000 metres (3,300 to 6,600 feet) below sea level." Yes. That's pretty deep to be a drowned atoll.
85338. Daniel Bailey at 13:32 PM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       @ Albatross Hansen has a great deal to say about aerosols as a negative forcing in his book Storms of My Grandchildren (Pgs. 98-99). Without aerosols, net forcing is about 3 watts (W m²). Aerosols have a forcing of 0 to -3 watts, with a most likely value of -1 watt, thus reducing net forcing to 2 watts. Thus, aerosol cooling might be masking about one-third the greenhouse forcing. But if aerosol forcing is -2 watts, reducing the net forcing to 1 watt, then aerosols have been masking most of the warming. Further cleaning up the air would then result in a doubling of the net climate forcing from what we've been observing. Hence his labeling of our GHG/aerosol emissions as a "Faustian Bargain".
85339. Albatross at 13:01 PM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       Michael @100, Re aerosols, yes, that is why it is so very unfortunate that the the Glory satellite did not make it into orbit a few months ago. That would have been an invaluable mission.
85340. Bern at 12:59 PM on 20 May 2011
       Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
       scaddenp: yes, I understand Plimer is (was?) also one of the best geologists in Australia. Why they feel that makes them experts in climate science, I'm not sure. It seems to be a surprisingly common position amongst geologists. I suspect it's because they know enough about paleoclimate to understand the massive variation the earth's climate can have on geological time scales, while failing to understand that what we're staring down the barrel of now is on a human time scale - i.e. 100s or 1000s of times faster.
85341. Tom Curtis at 12:33 PM on 20 May 2011
       Oceans are cooling
       Charlie A @67, I do not think anyone on this forum has accused you of Cherry Picking because of your graph with its start point in 1980. Nor is there anything wrong with that graph beyond the fact that it labels the OHC of the 0 to 700 meter layer as being the OHC simpliciter (a fault of the source of the graph, but not the sources documentation). Tamino's graph was produced in one of two recent posts pointing out, and rebutting denier cherry picking. It is not a rolling five year average as DB's initial comment might suggest, but a plot of successive non-overlapping five year averages with the penultimate point being the mean of the years 2005-2009, and the last datum being an average of the data from January 2010 to present. (See the comment by Ned.) I personally think Tamino should have made the years 2006-2010 the final datum to not compare apples and oranges, but that is a minor point and would not make a substantive difference to the graph. I say it makes no substantive difference because the mean of 2001-2005 would clearly be less than the mean of 2006-2010. Indeed, based on your plot of the running 21 quarter mean, it would be about 2.5*10^22 Joules less, which suggests that Tamino's use of just over a years data for the final datum under estimates the trend rather than over estimates it. The red line on Tamino's graph plots a lowess smooth of the original data (not the means). In this case it overstates the final trend in the data, but in another example it understates it, so clearly Tamino is not fiddling with the smooth to exaggerate the trend. When I say Tamino was rebutting cherry picking, I mean examples like this from Bob Tisdale: (Copied from Tamino) Or this recent example by Berényi Péter in a comment on Skeptical Science: In the later case, Berényi Péter simply wants to treat all pre-2003 data as void. That is, of course, absurd. The pre-2003, indeed, the pre-2005 OHC data is rightly suspect for determining inter-annual variability. It is, however, fairly robust for determining the decadal trend. As I have pointed out above, assuming the pre-2003 trend to be significantly different from that recorded implies a multitude of bizzare, and unsubstantiated hypotheses. (BP's effort was, of course, a double cherry pick in that he selects the 0-700 meter data when 0-2000 meter data was readily available.) In Bob Tisdale's case, the cherry pick involves picking the year with the largest departure above the trend line as a start point for the prediction. This has the straight forwardly dishonest effect of displacing the "predictions" above the trend line so that even should data follow the trend, they will still be seen to be below the doctored "predictions". (From Tamino) From your 66 above, it is plain that you are not trying to cherry pick in any such fashion. That makes it rather surprising that you chose to defend Pielke's rather straightforward cherry pick in 2007. Contrary to your claim, both Willis et al 2004 (which Pielke references) and Lyman, Willis and Johnson 2006 (which, surprisingly, he does not) show 2003 as the highest datum point, and indeed, 2003 lies above the long term trend in both. Despite this, in the true spirit which Tidale later copied), Pielke makes the 2003 the start point of his "prediction" for future OHC as a test case for AGW. Finally there is nothing wrong with choosing 2003 (or better 2005) as a start year for an analysis of OHC. What is wrong is suggesting that previous measurements of the OHC trend are some how invalid because they predate the "Argo era". There are certainly issues in resolving annual variability in OHC prior to 2005, but that is not the same as issues resolving decadal trends. On this point I will let Willis have the last word:

       "Second, This estimate only goes back to 2005. The reason for this is that Argo still has a number of floats for which no PI has responsibility for quality control of the data. For early incarnations of these floats, this could mean that significant (albeit correctable) biases still exist in the pressure data. Normally, these biases are corrected by the PI, but since these floats are sort of homeless, they have not yet been corrected. It is also difficult (or in many cases impossible) for the end user to correct these pressure data themselves. Argo is still trying to figure out how to deal with these data and I sure they will receive bias corrections eventually, but for the moment we need to exclude them. So, for this reason I am still not comfortable with the pre-2005 estimates of heat content. Anyway, the consequence of this is that we still do not have a good estimate of ocean heat content changes from about 2002 to 2005, when the dominant data source for ocean heat content went from XBTs to Argo floats. For this reason, I remain a bit skeptical of any heat content estimates during that period. That said, however, I do think that longer-term estimates like those of Levitus et al., Domingues et al., and Lyman et al. are robust with respect to the long-term heat content increases. The issue with the 2002-2005 period is that the uncertainty during this period is still much larger than any year-to-year fluctuations that may exist."

       (From an email to Roger Pielke Snr)
       Response:

       [DB] If my sloppy attribution of Tamino's graph is the cause of all this, I humbly apologize to all parties.

85342. Michael Hauber at 12:25 PM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       I think the idea that actual forcings may match scenario C closer than scenario B is intriguing. A lot depends on the aerosol forcing, which is the only reasonable candidate for causing a flattening of forcing since 2000. As far as my google skills and level of patience can tell,there is no direct measurement of aerosol forcings. I have found a paper from 2004 discussing the need for such measurement. http://glory.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/2004_JQSRT_88_149.pdf So if there is no direct measurement, that must mean that aerosol forcings used in models such as GISS E are indirect estimates based on calculations such as looking at economic activity etc? A few years ago I made an amateur attempt at trying to indirectly calculate aerosol forcings using Co2 emission data. Assuming that aerosol emissions and Co2 emessions have grown at the same rate and guessing some parameters to match total changes in aerosol forcings over the last century, and the claim I have read that most aerosols only last in the atmosphere for about 3 years, I was able to generate a forcing profile that peaks around 2002 and actually decreases for a few years. This is due to the explosive growth in activity in China in the last decade, and the fact that due to the 3 year lifespan of aerosols, aerosols react much faster to changes in economic activity than Co2 does. This crude analysis of course did not take into account the effects of clean air legislation, but I would expect that as the recent growth in emissions is largely in China that this would not be an issue? If the China effect really is the cause of a dog-leg in forcings, and forcings really do follow scenario C, then this will not last. Due to the short life time of aerosols, Co2 accumulation from the China boom will steadily overcome the short term aerosol effect and the forcing will steadily rise to meet and maybe overtake scenaerio B in the next decade or so.
85343. Marcus at 10:40 AM on 20 May 2011
       Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
       Dana, if you need to be sure, just listen to him say words like fish & chips or six. If it sounds more like Fush & Chups or Sux, then he's almost certainly a New Zealander ;-). Sorry for the OT post, but just had to poke a bit of fun at our Trans-Tasman cousins.
85344. scaddenp at 10:14 AM on 20 May 2011
       Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
       While I am baffled by Carter's take on climate - especially recitation of things he must know are wrong - I wouldn't rush to wholesale condemnation either. He was stimulating teacher when I attended Otago University(NZ) in the 1970s and he has made excellent scientific contributions to NZ geology. I would read with some respect what he published in the scientific literature - just not what he says to media, very much like Lindzen. The "gone Emeritus" phenomena perhaps?
85345. bibasir at 09:24 AM on 20 May 2011
       Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
       I love the quote from Richard Alley's book Earth, The Operators Manual. "The natural-not-human problem that isn't happening and wouldn't matter is too big to handle."
85346. SouthWing at 09:22 AM on 20 May 2011
       Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
       RealClimate has the right idea for the CWs of this world: a bore hole for them to live in.
85347. dana1981 at 09:17 AM on 20 May 2011
       Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
       It looks like Carter was originally from NZ and works in Australia, eh Gareth?
85348. KaneWilliams at 09:15 AM on 20 May 2011
       Abraham reply to Monckton
       I've been trying to find out where this thing went? Was Abraham making false accusations etc. Monckton claims that Abraham was misquoting him etc. I found this, which does appear to indicate some wrong doing on Abraham's part. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/14/abraham-climbs-down/
85349. Albatross at 09:07 AM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       BP @121, I'm running around putting out some "fires" right now and tonight-- so I do not have time to fact check your numbers or reasoning. But a quick read of your post suggests that you are possibly contradicting earlier assertions made by Ken and perhaps even yourself. I would caution arbitrarily comparing numbers for different depths from different studies as they process the data differently and make different corrections. I can't recall, does VS 2011 separate out the OHC into layers, say 0-700, 700-1500 etc.? If yes, then you should be comparing those numbers. Anyhow, IIRC, you both seem to think that the heat cannot be going below 700m, and if it is, only a trivial amount is. Now above you seem to be arguing that too much heat is being mixed downwards, although I'm pretty sure that that deduction is probably b/c of the above-mentioned issues. My point was and still is this-- if one includes the data below 700 m from 2003 onwards (as per Trenberth 2010), the positive slope of the OLS line fitted to the OHC increases. Do you deny that?
85350. Berényi Péter at 08:38 AM on 20 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       #119 Albatross at 01:18 AM on 20 May, 2011 It is odd that you and BP are arguing that the OHC can't be increasing below 700 m, but do not fully understand that there are mechanisms by which deep ocean heat uptake can occur. Quite the contrary. If you compare data provided by Fig. 5 (middle panel) Schuckmann 2011 (OHC above 1500 m) and NOAA NODC OCL Global Ocean Heat Content (OHC above 700 m), based on Levitus 2009, it turns out much more heat is sequestered between 700 m and 1500 m than in the upper 700 m (expressed as the partial planetary imbalance at TOA going to the respective layer). 2005-2010, 0-700 m: 139 ± 55 mW/m², 700-1500 m: 396 ± 57 mW/m² That is, in this period about three times more heat went to the 800 m thick layer below 700 m than above it. It is even more interesting for the last five years. 2006-2010, 0-700 m:  −7 ± 67 mW/m², 700-1500 m: 427 ± 56 mW/m² That is, since the beginning of 2006 nothing stayed above 700 m. Both studies provide proper error bars, so these results are unequivocal. On the other hand the studies do not provide any description of a conceivable physical process that could accomplish such a quest. Nor could I find other studies attempting the same. Therefore if one does not "fully understand that there are mechanisms by which deep ocean heat uptake can occur" without ever touching the upper layers, one is not alone. Albatross, if you happen to know such a reference, please show us. Otherwise we are forced to believe either Levitus 2009 or Schuckmann 2011 is flawed. Or both.

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