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Ken Lambert at 23:37 PM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
Albatross #109 You are trying hard for a small win Albatross - how about - "Dyson does not subscribe to alarmist AGW." "That is, IMO, dishonest and disingenuous." BTW, allegations of dishonesty are banned under the comments policy. Are you immune from moderation Albatross? Trenberth 2010: "However, independent analysis8 of the full-depth Argo floats for 2003 to 2008 suggests that the 6-year heat-content increase is 0.77 ± 0.11 W m−2 for the global ocean or 0.54 W m−2 for the entire Earth, indicating that substantial warming may be taking place below the upper 700 m." I think you will find that Dr Trenberth is quoting the von Schukmann analysis from September 2009, which is the only 0-2000m Argo analysis published as far as I know. BP raised serious questions about the bumps in the VS global chart and the impossible rates of heat transfer involved. I asked Dr Trenberth about some aspects of the VS paper on 10FEB2010, and at that date he had not read it. Later he started quoting it in correspondence with Dr Pielke, published on his blog. -
Stephen Baines at 23:37 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
@Camburn 32 "you can have nothing of consequence above ground unless supported by solid root structures. " Of course the same could be said in reverse as well, no roots without shoots. Moreover, under a given set of conditions, a plant which apportions a larger fraction of their biomass to root structures must, by necessity, grow slower because their metabolic costs increase relative to their photosynthetic rates. Because of this tradeoff, the root to shoot ratio is pretty constrained for a given biome. In the Amazon (and most wet tropical forests), belowground typically is 25% of above ground, roughly speaking. And there isn't a lot of dead soil carbon as it is quickly decomposed, except in consistently saturated soils. Of course if it gets drier, the root to shoot ratio will increase as plants try to access more water, but that will only happen because root biomass will decrease a little less than above ground biomass. IOW, the below ground biomass will not compensate for the loss of above ground biomass as climate dries in the Amazon. -
Ken Lambert at 23:20 PM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
BP #107 A useful contribution BP. I was listening to a radio interview with Josh Willis, and he made the point that most of the heat transfer action was in the top 10-20% of the oceans. With an average depth of 3700m - that puts it in the 0-700m layers. Maybe Albatross and Chris could also benefit from your contribution. -
JoeRG at 22:03 PM on 18 May 2011Temp record is unreliable
Yes, I agree with you regarding the need of progress. But if the progress looks like this, it is a bit odd. I made it by myself with a simple Excess table which compares the GHCN-M version 2 with the version 3 regarding the yearly anomalies. And it looks ... strange.Response:[DB] This is a science-based website. Merely attaching an "odd" or "strange" appellation/connotation to something adds nothing positive to the dialogue. If you have constructive criticism of the changes you reference you will need to perform a more robust analysis to back up your "insinuations" (which veer into Comment Policy violation status...).
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sime at 21:11 PM on 18 May 2011National Academy of Sciences on Climate Risk Management
Sailrick @ 12 "If I'm not mistaken, it is mostly limited to the... England... " I'm not sure I agree with England as in the UK being in that category. The UK is not in general terms in denial about climate change. With 83% of the UK public apparently viewing climate change as a current or imminent threat http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/31/public-belief-climate-change Add to that the fact that yesterday 17/05/2011 "Britain pledged to cut carbon pollution in half by 2025 (from 1990 levels)" OK so the devil is in the detail, but that is as the NY Times put it "...A striking example of a government committing to big environmental initiatives while also pursuing austerity measures.” http://climateprogress.org/2011/05/17/britain-pledges-to-cut-carbon-pollution-in-half-by-2025/ As for Scotland the first minister Alex Salmond does not give a hoot about what people say is possible or not and simply ignores the nay sayers and is now now comitting the Scottish to "generating the equivalent of 100 per cent of Scotland’s own electricity demand from renewable resources by 2020" http://www.newenergyworldnetwork.com/renewable-energy-news/by-technology/water/scotland-reinforces-100-renewables-by-2020.html The UK is not in any way either in or on the US GOP / Tea party style "road to doom" denial train, despite what the disinformers would have you believe.Response:[DB] Hot-linked URLs.
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JMurphy at 20:02 PM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Southwing wrote : "Dear folks, Dr. Jay is rather obviously a "seeker after truth" troll. Back to the topic, please." I'm not convinced, especially after this comment from a Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd over on the DeepClimate thread about Wegman's current difficulties : Whatever at least this Wegman guy didn’t try to make a fake graph... -
JoeRG at 19:20 PM on 18 May 2011Temp record is unreliable
With May 2 the NCDC changed the dataset and calculation. This change has a very strange effect. The NCDC uses the period of 1901-2000 as reference. With the "correction" (if one really will call it this way) the anomalies from beginning of the reference (1901) until the mid 50th are lowered while all other following values rised. Of course, not in significant ranges. But having this three or four times happened we will see differences to previous calculations in a significant range of approx. 0.1K. So the question arises again: are the data reliable?Response:[DB] Hey, progress happens. You're not against improvements to increase accuracy, right? After all, insinuations of something nefarious are beneath us...especially when the details of the change are made transparent, as you note.
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Rob Painting at 18:36 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
Adelady - a vast amount of carbon is stored underground. A multitude of factors lead to drying of the forest. I'll get to that eventually. Camburn- I think it is very safe to say that there are published papers showing a large climatic variation in the Amazon in times past Perhaps not as large as many readers may think. IIRC, during the ice ages for instance, mean annual temperature in the Amazon is thought to have fallen only 1-2°C, and this was mainly due to frequent outbursts of friagems being channeled up the Andes into the Amazon. Were it not for that, temps would have been closer to modern day. And, of course, when it was too dry in South America in the deep past, the Amazon didn't exist at all -
Derek B at 17:44 PM on 18 May 2011Greenhouse effect has been falsified
I'm seeing references to a paper by a Joseph Postma, also denying any greenhouse effect. His argument boils down to this: 1. Thermodynamics says the effective black body temperature of the earth is -18C, and this is matched by observation from space. 2. We observe much balmier temperatures at the earth's surface in practice. 3. The Greenhouse Theory says the difference is down to the greenhouse effect. 4. Postma observes that the temperature of -18C occurs at 5km altitude: "This altitude is found at about 5km in height above the ground surface by observation. " 5. He calculates from more thermodynamic theory (the adiabatic lapse rate) that we should therefore expect the temperature at the surface of the earth to be 14.5C. Voila! No need for a greenhouse effect. The blunder, of course, is that he offers no explanation for the -18C line being at 5km. And the explanation is ... the greenhouse effect! He also makes this confusion on thermodynamics, which I've seen elsewhere: "something which is cool cannot transfer heat to something which is warm". Clearly he is thinking of net transfer, but that's not how he uses this principle. -
Paul D at 17:20 PM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Dr Jay: "And before anybody goes after me for the question of the empirical evidence for the melting ice caps, I'm just trying to figure out if anyone knows how much the sea level will rise because that is the danger to humans, correct?" Not exactly. Reducing the area covered by glaciers has a number of impacts. 1. Changes to fresh water and hydro-electric schemes. 2. Increased ice loss further in land (Greenland, Antarctica), which reduces albedo, increasing the warming etc. 3. Probably changes in weather patterns, possibly water circulation to. 4. Sea level increases due to land based ice dumping into the seas. 5. Changes in wildlife and migration, impacts on food chain etc. -
adelady at 16:44 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
Camburn - "...you can have nothing of consequence above ground unless supported by solid root structures." But I thought the big issue with tropical forests was that there is little to no 'solid root structure' below ground. Practically the whole of the growth, carbon, nutrient cycles occur above ground which is why clear felling and/ or burning such forests depletes those soils so much more quickly and completely than soils in other regions. -
Michael Hauber at 15:36 PM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
Tamino charted averages over a 5 year period. To get a flat spot within a rising trend on such a graph you need more than 10 years of flat data so that two complete 5 year periods give the same average. Using a 5 year moving average is a different calculation and requires more than 5 years of flat data to get a flat spot in a rising trend. You use a charting method that is twice as sensitive to noise as the chart that Tamino uses, and then accuse Tamino's chart of being bogus. The chart you use which is more sensitive to noise also picks up a flat spot just after 1990. The trend then resumed its upward climb. Why would we expect the current flat spot to be any different? -
scaddenp at 14:45 PM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Bern, see the first link at RealClimate (Moderators comment) and then this one where the commentator "Jay Cadbury" explains why he changed name from "Dr Shooshmon". Whether this is the same "jay Cadbury" and "Dr Shooshmon" as at Realclimate and Blackboard cannot of course be verified. However the "concern troll" type posts are pretty similar. -
JoeRG at 14:39 PM on 18 May 2011It's cosmic rays
A new study could heat up the discussion again, I think. -
Bern at 13:51 PM on 18 May 2011Book reviews of Climate Change Denial
marcusbondi: actually, if the book succeeds in opening a few eyes to the science, then it may end up saving far, far more carbon than it cost to print & ship a few thousand copies... Speaking of which: if I may ask, purely out of curiosity, what was the first edition print run? -
Bern at 13:48 PM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
scaddenp: I presume the folks at Realclimate had some evidence that those IDs were one and the same, in which case it does seem some sock puppetry is going on. It's a harsh accusation to make against a commenter, so I'd prefer if there were some evidence (I think that it'd need IP logs or some such, at the very least). If they *are* the same, then that Blackboard thread is quite amusing... There does seem to be an increased incidence, lately, of "say it loud, say it often" posts early in threads on here, repeating arguments that have already been debunked so many times it's not funny. I presume John & the moderators here have their work cut out for them dealing with this kind of stuff... for example, at a quick glance I didn't see a single comment for this article that was on-topic! (and they can feel free to delete this post, too, as it's thoroughly off-topic!) -
Camburn at 13:30 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
I think it is very safe to say that there are published papers showing a large climatic variation in the Amazon in times past. The below ground productivity is very important to this topic. I will say it simply, you can have nothing of consequence above ground unless supported by solid root structures. -
Marcus at 13:22 PM on 18 May 2011National Academy of Sciences on Climate Risk Management
"What is clear and irrefutable is that the [academy's] proposals to address climate change would impose massive costs without meaningful benefits." What I love about this claim is the number of ways we can mitigate CO2 emissions *without* imposing massive costs-& with a number of side-benefits aside from addressing climate change. For example, I worked out that the average peak-time commuter burns about 100L of petrol just in idling. This amounts to almost 250kg of CO2 per commuter per year. Even if we're talking only 1 million commuters, that's still 250,000t of CO2 per year-just from people wasting their time in traffic jams. Yet Sen. Inhofe would have us believe that eliminating these traffic jams would be too costly & of no benefit. Well, it certainly would be costly to the oil industry, who'll be selling 100L less petrol per car, per year. Anyway, sorry if this is off-topic, but I really felt the need to point out, again, how out of touch the likes of Abbott & Inhofe actually are. -
sailrick at 11:40 AM on 18 May 2011National Academy of Sciences on Climate Risk Management
@1. Badgersouth "I suspect that the same situation exists in many other countries of the world. " If I'm not mistaken, it is mostly limited to the U.S., Canada, Australia, England and I guess New Zealand (all English speaking). It has been, at least in part, intentionally spread to these countries by organizations like CEI. "The roots of Australia’s climate denial: how the IPA almost single handedly kicked it off" "Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) in 1996, which began strategising to develop the Australian arm of their campaign to stop the Kyoto Protocol, which negotiators were just one year away from concluding" http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2010/06/17/the-roots-of-australias-climate-denial-how-the-ipa-almost-singly-handedly-kicked-it-off/ And, Pat Michaels, Robert Balling and Fred Singer helped found the skeptic organization European Science and Envionment Forum, (ESEF) in 1996. @10. adelady Reporters, journalists, talk show hosts and such need the phone apps too. -
marcusbondi at 11:22 AM on 18 May 2011Book reviews of Climate Change Denial
Why do you keep deleting my posts? What are you scared of? Why won't you reply to my question as to why you chose to publish a book on warming that will create more carbon than it saves, and which could easily be put online, for the immediate benfeit of all? ( - Inflammatory snipped- )?Response:[DB] Your first comment was deleted due to being off-topic for the thread you posted it on. The second comment was deleted due to violations of the Comments Policy (all-caps usage, inflammatory tone).
If you cannot afford a copy why not ask your local library to stock one for you?
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scaddenp at 11:08 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
See similar pattern in posts from Jay (aka Dr "Dr. Shooshmon) on Realclimate and Blackboard. Assuming the same person of course (only RC noticed that he was using same posting name), then this comment and followings is quite funny. -
Stephen Baines at 10:46 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
"Perhaps you need to be more skeptical about what Tamino posts." Perhaps you should address him yourself before casting aspersions in public, indirect though they be. That would be the collegial thing to do... -
SouthWing at 10:40 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Dear folks, Dr. Jay is rather obviously a "seeker after truth" troll. Back to the topic, please. -
Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
Charlie A > How does one compute a 5 year average centered on 2010? He didn't, read the post: "And for some of these data the latest 5-year period is incomplete, which will make the noise even bigger and increase the chance of accidentally contradicting the trend." -
adelady at 10:00 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
arch, I like a little irrelevant mystery occasionally. We can stand a bit of delicious suspense for a while. Anyhoo. It's good to see people not just using the materials here but developing them as teaching and presentation tools. I reckon in another 6-12 months the combination of the visual tools with the phone apps will make a handy package for any community, church or school wanting to DIY a discussion or learning group. -
Charlie A at 09:55 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
DB -- even your further explanation about the plots you posted is incorrect. How does one compute a 5 year average centered on 2010? Even a casual glance at the graph just above that, Tamino's version of annual OHC shows that the 5 year smooth graph is bogus. The most current data is available at NODC. Annual Global OHC Quarterly Global OHC Looking at the quarterly data you can see the change in standard deviation of the measurements around 2003, as the Argo network came online in force. Also on the graph below is a 21 quarter (63 month or 5.25 year smooth.) It doesn't look like the Tamino graph, does it. Doing a 5 year moving average on the annual graph results in essentially the same graph. Perhaps you need to be more skeptical about what Tamino posts.
Response:[DB] If you have the temerity and feel the need to tell a world-class professional time-series analyst that you know better than he...well, I'm hardly of a mind to talk you out of what will be an interesting learning experience for all. You have the proper thread over at Open Mind to post your correction on, so I expect to read said corrective effort there forthwith.
In the meantime I'm placing my confidence in that same professional who has already proven his knowledge and understanding of climate science beyond that posted by the majority here (and yes, that includes myself).
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Michael Hauber at 09:41 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
'all the data BEFORE 2003 is not forecast by any model' Wrong. There were climate models before 2003. The earliest climate models that ran on computers that I have heard about were around in the late 70s. They predicted roughly the same sensitivity to Co2 as the models today do. Not sure when the first model runs with ocean heat content were, but I doubt it was in 2003. -
arch stanton at 07:49 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Les (8), I agree with you. I hope the doctor returns to inform us of its relevance. -
mspelto at 07:07 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Dr Jay: We have three lines of measurement for glaciers. The WGMS reports glaciers where people with boots on the ground actually make measurements of glacier change annually. Typically this is mass balance of about 100 glaciers and terminus change on 400-500 glaciers. I measure 10 glaciers for mass balance and report all of these. This does not include glaciers where retreat is measured periodically, I measure terminus change on 60 glaciers, but only report about 10 that I examine annually. Most like Ptarmigan Ridge Glacier I do not as I visit them less frequently. Today we can also map the changes in area and hence terminus change using satellite imagery as well as thickness, these are not reported to the WGMS yet. The number that are tracked in this way is in the many thousands and these, take a look at the Colonia Glacier or Hariot Glacier for example, with the detailed terminus maps from satellite images. As we have done this it has confirmed that the WGMS sample is quite representative. -
scaddenp at 06:21 AM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
Actually, is angusmac trying to imply that since he thinks scenario C is a good fit for actual temperature then the forcings are actually close to scenario C??? -
KR at 05:56 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Gah - *lots of data* in the previous post -
KR at 05:55 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
les - It's a bit surprising. I started to get the answer to that halfway through typing "average ocean depth" into Google. Jay - The information about sea rise versus ice melt is also a Google answer. Lots data is out there, you just have to look a bit. -
les at 05:51 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
7 - Jay "what is the global average sea level, in meters please, if you could." I'm scoring that as the oddest question ever asked on SkS.Moderator Response: (DB) My initial thought was it was a snipe hunt; regardless of units, sea level is normally a base referent and is set as zero. -
dana1981 at 04:51 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
nanjo - actually you called it "Lau". Funny, I had a typo in typing your typo. As for the rest of your comment, as DB suggests, you really ought to learn more about models. First of all, hindcasting is an important part of gauging the accuracy of a model (if it can't match the past, then it's not accurate). Secondly, the data matches the linear extrapolation of the model after 2003 pretty darn well, on average. As for "theorizes", that's the word I want to use because it's the correct term ("assume" is wrong). -
Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. at 04:25 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
@KR This is a good answer. KR, what is the global average sea level, in meters please, if you could.Response:[DB] Google is your friend. You can look this stuff up yourself, you know, rather than asking.
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nanjo at 04:22 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
dana1981 at 06:44 AM on 17 May, 2011 My profound apologies for transposing "o" and "a". If I have offended anybody by my unforgivable typo..... I AM VERY VERY SORRY. The graph you have shown was published in 2005. It uses data up until 2003. all the graph BEFORE 2003 is is not a forecast by any model. They were the data used in coming up with model(s) in that Hansen paper. So, that part of the graph DOES NOT speak about the quality of the model. You don't get a gold star for matching the past. SO, look at the graph again, how wonderfully the model performs, After 2003. particularly after 2005. Nothing to do with any cherry picking. If you have used a data for creating a model, you don't get to use it crow about how great your model is. Linear extrapolation shown is not based on any model based on scientific inquiry. That is the kind of thing you can have a 9th grader do with a graph paper, a ruler and a NO.2 Pencil. How good that linear extrapolation fits is so irrelevant and Dana, I beg you to forgive me for any other typos. As for "theorizes..... i guess if that is the word you want you use, you should go for it.Response:[DB] Please, no all-caps. And you really ought to learn more about models.
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KR at 04:11 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Fully melted Antarctic and Greenland ice caps would raise sea levels by 80 meters, according to the USGS. That would be, um, bad. Melt of all glaciers besides those would only add an additional half meter. West Antarctic shelf and Greenland melt as per previous interglacials (with temperatures 2°C above present values, well within possible nthropogenic change levels) ~would be 10 meters or more, flooding ~25% of the US population, primarily on the East and Gulf Coasts. -
Manwichstick at 04:02 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
RE: 1. Dr. Jay, The experts I consult with have a lot to say about the glaciers melting. What they are much more cautious about is how to model future melt rates. They point to a lack of good on-the-ground data from the glaciers themselves. This uncertainty in how to model, does not make one blind to the already observed rate of glacial melt. Perhaps you are confusing the two. -
Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. at 04:01 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
And before anybody goes after me for the question of the empirical evidence for the melting ice caps, I'm just trying to figure out if anyone knows how much the sea level will rise because that is the danger to humans, correct? So I just don't want people to think I'm sounding like a snob, obviously I wouldn't be asking for empirical evidence assessing the risk of the sun if it moved much closer to the earth. I know a fully melted ice cap is probably bad.Response:[DB] You are far, far off-topic here. Many posts exist at SkS (Search thingy will find them). SLR about 7 meters from Greenland & Canadian Archipelago, 7 meters or so from WAIS, another 60-65 meters from the EAIS. Even a partially melted ice cap is a very bad thing for people.
No human civilization we are aware of was around the last time sea levels were at that level.
Please focus on the topic of this thread from this point on.
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Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. at 03:58 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
That is helpful but I cannot tell from the graphic the total number of glaciers. I am still sorting through the link Jimbo provided.Response:[DB] Then go to Mauri's page I linked to. Or better yet, the primary literature in addition to the WGMS site Jimbo gave you.
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Jim Powell at 03:47 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Dr. Jay: World Glacier Monitoring Service -
Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. at 03:41 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
I've said this before, I don't think anyone can make a statement on glaciers. I think we need a world index of all glaciers. The problems we have with glaciers are numerous. Firstly, I don't know if melting starting points are accurately documented. Furthermore, if a melting glacier resumes growing, could we say this a sign of global cooling? So in summary, more information is needed, I say.Response:[DB] Glacial mass-balance is a function of deposition in the glacier's accumulation zone (where it "packs on weight"), and its losses in the ablation zone (everywhere else). Additionally, slope and terrain play a role as well.
If the glacier is getting substantially more deposition through enhanced snowfall in its accumulation zone, it may begin to advance further downslope (that gravity naughtiness). However, increased meltwater pulses due to a warmer environment downslope may actually cause even greater acceleration and calving at the output end of the glacier due to basal lubrication and subsequent retreat upslope of the glacier.
Measurements of glacier thickness, accumulation and ablation worldwide are reflected in the enclosed graphic. In addition to the graphic I provide, see Jimbo's comment at #2 and glaciologist Mauri Pelto's site here:
[Source]
The reality is that hard-working glaciologists have been all over this for many decades. And this is all very well-documented in the literature. And at Skeptical Science (that Search function thingy).
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les at 02:24 AM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
108 - Chris. The lecture by Sanater is excellent in that it's always good to see some good science being discussed (I'd say the same for your posts); but also upsetting when you see the appalling work of the "skeptics" laid bare. It should really give "sceptics" pause for a little soul searching. -
Albatross at 02:22 AM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
Re #30, Really, it is not clear what you are trying to say. But you seem to think that more than doubling CO2 and associated climate disruption will more than be compensated for by CO2 enrichment. Recent research has found that the ITCZ can migrate up to 5 degrees latitude when the planet warms-- think of the consequences that would have. You ignored the results from field studies by Feeley. And you forget that this is not so much as to what has happened but where we are heading. And really, citing cherry-picked studies from ideologues like Idso does not help you case. And what has below ground productivity got to do with things, or how is that related to this post? Oh, it is strawman, of course. We are talking about the canopy and transpiration, and die back of the canopy. And talking of strawmen, you are also making a arguing a strawman about fires. Making the argument that there have been periods of greater fire activity in the southern hemisphere before so there is nothing to worry about in the future is nonsense. All you have demonstrated is that large variations in the degree of biomass burning in the Southern Hemisphere (not the Amazon per se, the authors do not mention specifically the Amazon that I could see), and that it is possible to burn a lot more biomass than has been of late. Hardly reassuring. So your long post ultimately does not support Solomon's propaganda. In fact, it is just a fine example of the lengths people will go to to delude themselves. -
Albatross at 01:48 AM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
Ken @104, This is what you originally said: "There are a few great minds who don't subscribe to the AGW theory" When challenged that has now changed to this: "He definitely does not subscribe to AGW - 'alarmist global warming" You are going to have to do better than that re Dyson, you cannot even concede that you misrepresented Dyson, so you move the goal posts as noted by JMurphy @105. That is, IMO, dishonest and disingenuous. Now onto the subject of this post. You are also going to have to do much better than this when asked about Lindzen's inane comments on natural variability: "Lindzen maybe, maybe not - right. It depends on how widely the limits of natural variability are drawn." Come on. So we simply adjust the time frame to fit Lindzen's ideology? That is poor Ken. And since when does Lindzen get to choose how widely the limits of natural variability are drawn and over which time? Given that you and BP are so well informed, and seem to understand what Lindzen is implying, please specify for us what these limits are. Also, please clearly describe for all of us how your missives here and the data support Lindzen's ideology? As for what is going on between 700 m and 2000 m. Really, you have to ask that? Trenberth (2010) has looked at this-- for the much debated 2003-2010 period, the positive slope of the OHC trace increases when one includes data below 700 m-- did you miss the first figure in Dana's post? Trenberth says: "However, independent analysis8 of the full-depth Argo floats for 2003 to 2008 suggests that the 6-year heat-content increase is 0.77 ± 0.11 W m−2 for the global ocean or 0.54 W m−2 for the entire Earth, indicating that substantial warming may be taking place below the upper 700 m." Also from the Figure's caption: "The differences between the black and blue plots after 2003 suggest that there has been significant warming below 700 m, and that rates of warming have slowed in recent years" -
Charlie A at 00:25 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
Another small question about the graph you posted. It is labeled "Smoothed (simple 5-year averages", but it is unlike any such graph that I can calculate. How did you manage to plot a simple 5 year average for 2011? Normally, when I plot a "simple 5-year average" I plot a 5 year moving average for every year. (with the last 2 years not being plotted). When I do the simple moving average plot, there is a very obvious flattening in 2003. That doesn't appear in your graph, hence my question as to how you calculated it. If I use the IPCC recommended 5 year gaussian filter, the flattening is even more pronounced.Response:[DB] Apologies for not being more clear. Being tired (and no doubt lazy) at that moment, I wrote the descriptive verbiage from memory. The 5-year graphic is from this post by Tamino. He clarifies the graphics here:
Tom Curtis
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Charlie A at 00:11 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
DB inline comments: "Tamino shows clearly the nature of the "Cherry-pick" that is 2003". and "Smoothed (simple 5-year averages), one gets this:" When Roger Pielke started posting the OHC graphs, 2004, not 2003, was the highest point. At that time, several years ago he explain his choice of 2003 as being the point where the Argo data dominated the record. It is only in the 2010 revisions that 2003 became the highest point. Splicing together datasets of different types of measurements is difficult, and when a newer system has much better coverage and accuracy than an older system it is quite common to do analysis starting from the introduction of the new system. Some common examples: Sea Ice measurements from beginning of satellite coverage, ignoring earlier surface based observations. GRACE mass loss measurements. Lower tropospheric temperatures from satellites vs earlier radiosonde measurements. In post #12 Ken Lambert refers to an article on XBT-Argo transition. A key element of that explanation is Schuckmann 2009, "Global hydrographic variability patterns during 2003–2008" Was Schuckmann cherry picking when he started his analysis in 2003? Much more likely is that he chose 2003 because that is when the reliable, comprehensive dataset started. Regarding the 5 year smoothed plot: The beauty of OHC content is that one does not need to average over a long period. The change in ocean heat content over a 3 month period is a direct integration of the radiative imbalance over that 3 month period. It reflects variations (over that 3 month period) of such things as the average albedo due to variations in cloud cover or aerosols. -
chris at 23:48 PM on 17 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
Ken Lambert at 22:08 PM on 17 May, 2011 That’s poor, Ken. You’ve done a little bait and switch. The point is that your mate D.H. Douglass butchered an attempt at statistical analysis of comparison of model and empirical data to attempt to draw a false conclusion about the reliability of the models (they wanted to pretend that the empirical data was incompatible with the range of model variability). The laughable nature of their analysis is described in a lecture by Dr. Santer which is worth an hour of anyone’s time – very enlightening and instructive indeed. (if you only want the relevant bit start at around 30 mins in). I can see why you love D/K’s style of “research” since it’s a little similar to your researches; i.e. look for areas of uncertainties in sub-disciplines of a subject, assume that the most extreme end of the uncertainty that matches your preconceived idea is the true description of the reality bounded by the variance of the uncertainty (e.g. by putting your faith in D/K's "outputs")…..and then pretend that that calls into question all levels of greater certainty above. As your bait-n-switch quote shows, whereas Douglass was determined that the uncertainty could be repackaged to assert that models was incompatible with empirical data on a rather small element of atmospheric response to radiative forcing ( strength of a hotspot), Santer et al are rather more relaxed and honest about the nature of uncertainty. This nice paragraph of yours is apposite: ” The geothermal effect should be easily eliminated from measurements. A negative 0.1W/sq.m TOA imbalance at equilibrium is required to eliminate this effect, otherwise the biosphere would gain energy indefinitely.” I wasn’t going to be too hard on Douglass/Knox but since you brought that up (and them up!), it’s worth mentioning another analysis that D/K butchered. They proposed that the warming in Iceland between 1979-1996 is due to the geothermal effect that you mention. H. Bjornsson, T. Jonsson, and T. Johannesson from the Icelandic Meteorological Office in their comment linked under “butchered” just above, showed that the map of volcanic activity (where geothermal effects should dominate) is incompatible with the expectation from geothermal contributions to surface temperatures, that there is no evidence for an enhancement of the geothermal flux during the period of interest, and that the geothermal flux is anyway approaching 3 orders of magnitude too low. D/K are obviously having great fun with their very late second careers as climate contrarians; but your reliance on them for info on climate-related matters is misplaced… [P.S. Ben Santer has just been elected to the National Academy of Sciences for his outstanding work on climate science - good work, yes?!] -
Bob Lacatena at 23:24 PM on 17 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
I'd like to suggest to any casual readers that they look at angusmac's posts, and those in response, and note how he quite simply refuses to see the point of the entire argument. He is so intent on proving a point that he desperately wants to be true that he is ignoring the simple and obvious... even after it has been explained to him over and over again. This is an important behavior to watch for on these threads, the habit of some to make their case by mere repetition, often through the inclusion of as many numbers and graphs and equations as possible, while simply and blatantly ignoring even the most basic and irrefutable arguments that knock the supports right out from under their case. Merely repeating a flawed argument over and over, with more and more intricate (if invalid) numbers, does not make it any more true, or convincing, and forcing others to repeat the same salient point over and over does not make that point any less true. Be wary. -
Berényi Péter at 23:21 PM on 17 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
#106 Ken Lambert at 22:08 PM on 17 May, 2011 This whole ocean heating story is fascinating. We have an open bathtub holding vast amounts of water which is heated from above, the sides and below. Above from radiation and air transfer, the sides from ice shelf effects where they occur, and below from geothermal (0.1W/sq.m globally). Fascinating, indeed. What you are not told often, Ken, is that the deep oceanic circulation (aka thermohaline circulation) is not a heat engine, that is, the mechanical energy needed to push huge water masses around is not derived from entropy (that is, temperature and/or salinity) differences inside the hydrosphere. A heat reservoir heated from above in a gravitational field simply can't do that. Downwelling of high salinity cold water in subpolar regions could not go on forever, because sooner or later the abyss would get saturated, deep water would be as cold and salty as possible, so no more could go under in any way. There should be other processes operating elsewhere that pump heat down and remove salts from deep layers, to make room for more. Geothermal heating plays a small part in it (it warms water a bit at the proper level), as short wave solar radiation (light) also does when it penetrates into the water to a depth of several hundred meters. But the main player is turbulent mixing, driven by mechanical energy like wind and deep tidal breaking. Most of it is concentrated to small areas along coastlines and mid ocean ridges, where bottom topography is sufficiently rugged. BTW, about 80% of deep turbulent mixing happens in the Southern Ocean, so the true diver of ocean currents is located there. Thermohaline downwelling itself does not transfer any heat into the abyss, it removes heat from there.
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