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Tom Curtis at 09:41 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Stephen Baines @84:"What I would like to see someday is a historical perspective of how the level of consensus has changed over time."
Bray, 2010, "The scientific consensus of climate change revisited" draws on three surveys by Bray and Storch, the first in 1996 and the last in 2008, to answer your question. It turns out that: 1) In 1996, just over 60% of climate scientists believed the Earth was warming; just under 40% believed humans where responsible; and just under 60% believed the IPCC was an accurate reflection of the science. 2) In 2003, just over 80% of climate scientists believed the Earth was warming; around 55% believed humans were responsible; and around 75% believed the IPCC reports accurately reflected the science. 3) In 2008, around 95% of climate scientists believed the Earth was warming; just under 90% believed humans where responsible; and 80% believed the IPCC reports accurately reflected the science, or understated the risks. Based on Doran and Zimmerman, Bray indicates that the proportion of climate scientists believing humans where responsible for global warming had risen to around 95% by 2009. (All data from Figure 1 in the paper.) Robert Lichter (2008) also compares the results of a 1991 Gallup Poll of climate scientists to his 2007 Survey:"We repeated several of their questions verbatim, in order to measure changes in scientific opinion over time. On a variety of questions, opinion has consistently shifted toward increased belief in and concern about global warming. Among the changes: In 1991 only 60% of climate scientists believed that average global temperatures were up, compared to 97% today. In 1991 only a minority (41%) of climate scientists agreed that then-current scientific evidence “substantiates the occurrence of human-induced warming,” compared to three out of four (74%) today. The proportion of those who see at least a 50-50 chance that global temperatures will rise two degrees Celsius has increased from 47% to 56% since 1991. The proportion of scientists who have a great deal of confidence in our understanding of the human-induced sources of global climate change rose from 22% in 1991 to 29% in 2007. Similarly, the proportion voicing confidence in our understanding of the archeological climate evidence rose from 20% to 32%. Despite these expressions of uncertainty, however, the proportion which rating the chances at 50-50 or better that the role of human behavior will be settled in the near future rose from 47% in 1991 to 69% in 2007."
There is a clear pattern of a rising consensus as scientist by scientist is driven by the evidence to conclude that temperatures are rising, we are responsible, and it is dangerous. -
~Qt~ at 09:38 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
@ Climate Watcher 22 Paltridge et al. found that specific humidity in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis declined between 1973 and 2007. However, this reanalysis is incredibly biased and almost certainly inaccurate for several reasons. 1) Other reanalyses indicate that the long-term water vapor feedback is positive, as chris noted. 2)The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis was solely dependent on radiosonde humidity measurements to constrain upper tropospheric humidity. As you note, there are problems with these measurements. 3) While the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis showed that the long-term water vapor feedback is negative, it also indicated that the short-term feedback is positive. This makes very little physical sense. 4) Newer reanalyses include improvements that are designed to increase the fidelity of long-term trends. Thus, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is not as accurate as the newer reanalyses which indicate the existence of a positive feedback. -
Tom Curtis at 09:02 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
funglestrumpet @82, quoting Tyndale is all very well, but their are deniers who believe that the climate response for a doubling of CO2 is around 0.5 degrees C after feedbacks. Indeed, I recently came across one who claimed increasing CO2 reduces the temperature. There is no way that you will convince such deniers and their gratefully hoodwinked political allies that reducing CO2 emissions will be a cost effective means of combating rising global temperatures. This is particularly the case seeing the same people also tend to believe that the major drivers of increasing temperatures is natural, and is in the process of reversing, ie, entering a sustained cooling period. You certainly would not convince me, if I believed those falsehoods, to reduce CO2 emissions without first convincing me that those beliefs were false. That is because I am rational. Further, Stephen Baines @85 is entirely correct. This is my last comment on this topic which is OT on this thread. I recommend, however, that you become familiar with the arguments deniers actually present before you recommend how we can overcome their political effect. -
Tom Curtis at 08:49 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Albatross @100, I believe Harry Seaward was playing coy. Your statement was:"Please list for us all the professional scientific societies of the same standing as the American Meteorological Society (for example) who state that human emissions of GHGs are not contributing to global warming."
You would not agree with that statement, and neither would Lindzen or Christie (although I know of some scientists who would). I believe the question should be:"Please list for us all the professional scientific societies of the same standing as the American Meteorological Society (for example) who state that human emissions of GHGs are not the major contributing factor to global warming."
All of the scientific societies you listed endorse that human emissions of GHG is the major contributing factor, as of course, do you. -
KR at 08:48 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Tom Curtis, Rob, etc. - Take a look at the Sunseeker, a solar powered glider which crossed the US on solar power in August 1990. See also the Sunseeker II and other projects on that page, including the Sunship - a solar powered dirigible. -
JMurphy at 08:46 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Sphaerica wrote : "Except to do any gliding you need power to get the glider aloft (or for a hang glider something to lug you and the glider up to a launch point, and then go pick you up where ever you wind up landing)." The last time I went gliding, I was launched by a winch, which is like launching a kite. I suppose the winch still needs fuel for the motor but, apart from that, and presuming a landing back on the airfield where you start, the carbon footprint should be very small ! Best way to fly, unless you need to get somewhere... -
KR at 08:43 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Sphaerica - There's a lot going on in terms of electric airplanes, which can address at least small craft in the forseeable future. I believe there were several present at Sun-and-Fun this spring, and more to appear at Oshkosh. But battery recharge times limit distance traveled per day, which means even the best won't be replacements. For general and commercial aviation, however, we're more likely to end up with either biofuels or solar/wind generated (carbon neutral) liquid fuels. For example, there's a pretty serious effort by Swift Enterprises to certify their 100LL replacement (propeller driven planes), which is a biofuel, for FAA approved use. They're in testing now, and should have that cleared fairly soon - and it appears to be price competitive. I expect some kerosene/jet fuel replacements hitting the market in <5-10 years as well. -
Tom Curtis at 08:40 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Rob @104, I have always wondered about the viability of an electrically powered ducted fan based on a glider frame and with PV cells in the wings. Sphaerica, most air transport needs could be met with derigibles again propelled by ducted fans and powered from battery power with PV cells recharging the batteries during daylight hours. Granted it would take five days to cross the atlantic, but that is almost irrelevant for freight; and if you need a faster personal meeting, there is skype. -
Bob Lacatena at 08:17 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
106, Albatross, Except to do any gliding you need power to get the glider aloft (or for a hang glider something to lug you and the glider up to a launch point, and then go pick you up where ever you wind up landing). One of the big sins (I think) about how we're wasting fossil fuels today is that they're the only practical solution to powered flight. We're wasting it all puttering around to the corner store, when a hundred years from today people are going to regret all the things that can't be done because flying is so prohibitively expensive (because there's so little fuel left to meet the needs of aviation). -
Chris G at 08:15 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
@Dana 21, Just to connect some dots, that is the same link posted by dankd, whom I suspect is the same climate researcher who studied under Lindzen as a graduate student about the time that the 1993 discussion and unpublished AGU presentation were written. So, I suspect that Dan has a better understanding of what Lindzen's views are, or were, than anyone other than Lindzen himself. Which makes the AGU presentation, where he is the primary author and Lindzen the second, interesting. -
JMurphy at 08:15 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
In fact, the AAPG have decided that it would be best if they just didn't get involved in trying to work out where they stand : Sunsetting the Global Climate Change Committee ...as a group we have no particular claim to knowledge of global atmospheric geoophysics through either our education or our daily professional work. For our members who want to follow the climate change discussions there are numerous, easily accessed Web sites. If there’s a demand, and if it helps us to find hydrocarbons or characterize potential sequestration reservoirs, AAPG can host climate-related technical sessions at our meetings – but like our other sessions, they should be composed of presenters who are doing the primary research. In the meantime, the Executive Committee saw no advantage and several significant potential pitfalls in maintaining an AAPG Global Climate Change Committee. The AAPG Global Climate Change Committee has fulfilled its mission with passion and energy, providing lively debate. The members are sincerely thanked for a job well done. The Professional Geologist And that is pretty good, coming as it does from such a group (geologists), some of whom are die-hard so-called skeptics - *cough* Plimer... -
Albatross at 08:11 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Rob @104, There is always gliding :) -
drrocket at 08:06 AM on 13 May 2011CO2 has a short residence time
Dikran Marsupial, 5/13/11, 03:37 AM CO2 residence time On 5/12/11 at 17:43, you wrote on the If this were true, then the annual rise in atmospheric CO2 would be greater than anthropogenic emissions (as both man and the natural environment would be net emitters of CO2 to the atmosphere). The second part about the natural environment conditionally being net emitter is an assumption, your assumption, and one that doesn't follow from your hypothesis that the CO2 concentration rise is surely natural. I used your exact words; there was no problem in reading or citing what you wrote, then or now. Could it be that what you object to is your assumption being called an assumption? You assumed the conclusion would follow from your hypothesis. You say, You (like e.g. Robert Essenhigh) are confusing residence time and adjustment time. They are not the same thing, both are well defined in e.g. the IPCC reports. How did I confuse what I didn't use? Here's what IPCC says on this subject: Response time The response time or adjustment time is the time needed for the climate system or its components to re-equilibrate to a new state, following a forcing resulting from external and internal processes or feedbacks. Bold added, AR4, Glossary. I was addressing nothing like the so-called equilibration time for the climate. I would have no use for adjustment time under any circumstances because the climate system never reaches equilibrium. I was talking about the average time molecules of CO2 stay in the atmosphere, and that is given by the residence time applied to some scenario for emissions. I was talking about CO2 uptake, not about climate equilibration. Your formula, dC = E_a + E_n – U_n, doesn't have enough variables. It's missing E_a altogether. Using your symbology, IPCC's ludicrous, irrational assumption is that U_a = 0.6E_a while U_n = E_n, where E_a ~ 8 GtC/yr and E_n ~ 210 GtC/yr. What you might have written is dC = E_a – U_a + E_n – U_n = 8.0 – 4.8 + 210.2 – 210.2 = 3.2 GtC/yr This is the equation for the air-sea flux in AR4, Figure 7.3, p. 515, where I happen to score IPCC's 20 GtC/yr of ACO2 flux between air and ocean as nCO2 with no loss of generality. The problem is that IPCC's ratio of U_a/E_a = 0.5 while its ratio of U_n/E_n = 1 is unjustified, if physically possible at all, considering that ACO2 and nCO2 are just different mixes of 12CO2:13CO2:14CO2. If you have any accountancy homework, just post it here, too, for lessons. -
Bob Lacatena at 07:39 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
103, cynicus, And yet even they were forced to mollify their position in 2007 because (in their words) "the current policy statement is not supported by a significant number of our members and prospective members." The revised statement pretty much says nothing. It says that climate has changed in the past (no, really?), that the most extreme predictions of climate change aren't likely to come to pass (no, really?), and that they support alternative energy sources and conservation (with constant references to the need for it to be economically palatable). It's hardly a resounding refutation of current climate science. -
KR at 07:13 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
ClimateWatcher - "Make the world more like the subtropics and it will cool off because it will emit more energy to space. Make the world more like the polar regions and it will warm up because it will emit less energy to space. " This is one of the more outrageous statements you've made. You are, I hope, aware of the T^4 relationship between temperature and power emitted? Of course the tropics emit more energy, they are warmer! I would rather not turn the polar regions into tropics, myself - it would have rather harsh consequences for the middle latitudes, let alone the present tropics. Moist air emits less energy than dry air at any particular temperature, ClimateWatcher. Predicted, tested, proven. -
Michael.M at 06:48 AM on 13 May 2011Climate Change Denial book now available!
Got my copy yesterday - ten days earlier than expected when ordering at amazon germany. :-) -
Rob Honeycutt at 06:39 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
DSL @ 99.... Right! I really don't think the skeptics quite understand that no one wants AGW to be real. We would all be relieved if this weren't real. I'm a licensed general aviation pilot and I'd love to feel free to burn as much fossil fuel as my little heart desires but I've grounded myself until an adequate bio-fuel alternative is on the market. My passion for aviation takes a backseat to the future my kids will inherit. -
chris at 06:24 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
ClimateWatcher, your assertion that "But even in recent decades, as the instrumentation has become more uniform, the sonde data do not show positive feedback", isn't true. For example, the radiosonde reanalysis of McCarthy et al (2009) does show a positive water vapour response to tropospheric warming. Likewise the reanalyses described by Dessler and Davis (2010). Likewise with the new radiosonde analyses described in Dai et al. (2011). Paltridge et al is not a particularly convincing example for your argument. After all the authors themselves conclude:"It is of course possible that the observed humidity trends from the NCEP data are simply the result of problems with the instrumentation and operation of the global radiosonde network from which the data are derived."
I don't think one can dismiss the very large body of work from satellites and now from raiosonde reanalysis that global warming is accompanied (amplified) by enhanced tropospheric water vapour. -
cynicus at 06:20 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
@101 Sphaerica, I bet the "American Society of Petroleum geologists" would fit that question. Does it surprise you? -
Bob Lacatena at 06:06 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
22, ClimateWatcher, I can't believe anyone would still put forward the Partridge paper as evidence/argument for anything. -
ClimateWatcher at 05:53 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
#12 There are problems with satellite estimates of humidity also: (see slide 15 for contradictory trends between two satellites ) As to RAOB, I'm sure you're familiar with the Paltridge paper There are problems with sonde data, notably spatial coverage and instrumentation change. But even in recent decades, as the instrumentation has become more uniform, the sonde data do not show positive feedback. One should also look further. People assume that when humidity increases, infrared emission to space decreases. But we observe the opposite. Excluding cloudy areas, the moist subtropics emit more to space than do the dry polar regions. It is temperature and vertical variation of humidity that govern earth's emission amount and not to total water vapor. Make the world more like the subtropics and it will cool off because it will emit more energy to space. Make the world more like the polar regions and it will warm up because it will emit less energy to space. -
dana1981 at 05:38 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
chris #17 - interesting letter, thanks for the link. -
les at 05:26 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Chris G 16 - yes the odds are against it, but the cost of believing you're Galileo is small (is you do do quiet to your self) and the payoff is high is you are right. Well worth it! 19 - yes, it is curious and fascinating... -
Utahn at 05:14 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Harry you said earlier that one problem was that: "First,the researchers excluded from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth (i.e., solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists and astronomers)." A quick example from my field (rheumatology, a subspecialty of internal medicine): Suppose you wanted to find out the current scientific consensus on how to treat patients with rheumatoid arthritis. If you surveyed rheumatologists who treat the most patients with rheumatoid arthritis, and are doing active research on rheumatoid arthritis, you would get the most scientifically sound answer to your question. You would expect a somewhat less sound answer if you surveyed, orthopedists, physical therapists, chiropracters, sports medicine doctors, or general internists, even though they might all have something to do with "arthritis". The most scientifically sound answer would come from the ones actively working in and doing research in the field in question don't you think? -
Chris G at 05:11 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Back on Lindzen, it is a curious thing that someone whose own model of how climate works is full of incorrect premises should spend so much time criticizing the models used by the IPCC. -
Bob Lacatena at 05:11 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
100, Albatross Interesting. Are you aware of any agencies that "dis-endorse" climate change? If 97 out of 100 scientists isn't good enough for some people, how about 100 out of 100 agencies and organizations populated by large numbers of scientists, and which in and of themselves have little to gain (financially) by supporting any one theory or another? How about it? Are there any real agencies out there that have publicly refuted climate change (and we're not including organizations like The Cato Heartland Freedom and Liberty Institute for Energy, Science, and Free Markets and Definitely Against Rabid Socialism and Such [a subsidiary of Exxon Mobile])? -
Chris G at 05:08 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Les, on second, read, I think I misunderstood your point on the first go. Please disregard my last comment. -
chris at 05:06 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Here's a copy of the Nature letter (by Dr. Lindzen) and response (by Drs Hoffert and Covey) I excerpted from in my post @7 above. The Hoffert/Covey response is very good... -
Chris G at 05:02 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Les, Not that it matters, but I think the odds are against it. As for your reference to Poptech's list, I'll admit to some curiosity about it, but he lost me when he claimed to have a better understanding of what some papers mean than the persons who wrote them. -
Albatross at 04:44 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Harry @98, "I don't know of any scientists period that would make that statment." Bad news, I'm a scientist and I made that statement. But then again, you don't know me ;) As for agencies who have issued statements on the theory of AGW (from here) Scientific organizations endorsing the consensus The following scientific organizations endorse the consensus position that "most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities": American Association for the Advancement of Science American Astronomical Society American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Institute of Physics American Meteorological Society American Physical Society Australian Coral Reef Society Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO British Antarctic Survey Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Environmental Protection Agency European Federation of Geologists European Geosciences Union European Physical Society Federation of American Scientists Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies Geological Society of America Geological Society of Australia International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics National Center for Atmospheric Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Royal Meteorological Society Royal Society of the UK The Academies of Science from 19 different countries all endorse the consensus. 11 countries have signed a joint statement endorsing the consensus position: Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil) Royal Society of Canada Chinese Academy of Sciences Academie des Sciences (France) Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany) Indian National Science Academy Accademia dei Lincei (Italy) Science Council of Japan Russian Academy of Sciences Royal Society (United Kingdom) National Academy of Sciences (USA) (12 Mar 2009 news release) A letter from 18 scientific organizations to US Congress states: "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science." The consensus is also endorsed by a Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC), including the following bodies: African Academy of Sciences Cameroon Academy of Sciences Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences Kenya National Academy of Sciences Madagascar's National Academy of Arts, Letters and Sciences Nigerian Academy of Sciences l'Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal Uganda National Academy of Sciences Academy of Science of South Africa Tanzania Academy of Sciences Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences Zambia Academy of Sciences Sudan Academy of Sciences Two other Academies of Sciences that endorse the consensus: Royal Society of New Zealand Polish Academy of Sciences" -
les at 04:40 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
History shows that at least one person who thought hes was Galilao was right. It follows that "it is possible for someone who thinks they are Galilao to be right." from which we derive "not all people who think they are Galilao are mistaken". Any good? (I'm sitting for my Clinate "skeptic" exams. Think I'll pass?) -
DSL at 04:37 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud, Lyman and OHC are discussed here. If you still have questions, ask them there. Aye, Rob, at 94. Would it not be most excellent if it turned out that the planet isn't warming as we think it is, or that some mechanism is going to kick in and bring cooling? John's book would stop selling, but I suspect he wouldn't mind so much. Indeed, it would be the opportunity for another book: What Went Right. But everything's about probability, and right now a much warmer coming century is much, much more likely than temperature-as-usual or cooling. It also seems silly to think that climate scientists will "win" somehow by predicting a warmer planet. Such a hoax would be readily dismissed within a decade or two, and the income gained from employment would be balanced by the eventual inability to gain employment in one's chosen field. And what happens to scientists in a warmer future, if we go BAU? It's not like climatology is going to expand as a field. It's likely going to contract, as government spending will need to be shifted to mitigation, damage control, and infrastructure construction/reconstruction as migrations (forced and voluntary) occur. -
Chris G at 04:33 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
FWIW, I think I connected the wrong dots. Covey references Lindzen (1993), which I took to be an actual article with particulars, where he meant the same discussion piece that dankd linked in Lindzen #4. I suspect another, possibly more important piece of work, for this discussion, is referenced by Covey as Kirk-Davidoff, D. B. and Lindzen, R. S.: 1993, Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union annual Fall .Meeting, San Francisco, CA. which might also be known as Kirk-Davidoff, D.B., and R.S. Lindzen, 1993: On the Role of Meridional Energy Fluxes in Climate Change. Oral Presentation, Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union. http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~dankd/CV.pdf I have not found a publication of that paper by the same name. I'm wondering if dankd the poster here is Daniel Kirk-Davidhoff, the primary author of the paper above, and if so, if he could shed some light on the different mechanics between orbital and GHG forcings. -
Harry Seaward at 04:32 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Alb at 86 I don't know of any scientists period that would make that statment. Stands to reason the professional scientific societies would not either. I thought we all agreed that human GHG emissions are making some sort of contribution to global warming. And, remember this survey referenced in the article starting this thread is referring to this questions: "2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" Activity can mean and does imply other factors other than GHG emissions. The question is not inconvenient, it is merely inept. -
JMurphy at 04:31 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud wrote : "Nevertheless, the fact that large numbers of scientists and people from other disciplines refute the AGW hypothesis from their own area of expertise, that fact alone is sufficient to refute the political argument that there is consensus among scientists." Can you define "large numbers" and compare it to the total number of scientists ? Do you also agree with the "scientists and people from other disciplines" who reckon they can refute Evolution, HIV/AIDS, Smoking/Cancer, the Greenhouse Effect, etc., etc. ? Can I ask again : do you agree with the 100 scientists I pointed you towards here ? If not, could you explain why ? What have "political argument[s]" got to do with a consensus among scientists ? Do you think the consensus over Evolution is also a "political argument" ? Do you even believe in Evolution ? Are you Poptech or do you just love to repeat his assertions about so-called refutations ? -
Pete Dunkelberg at 04:27 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Statistics show that most people who think they are Galileo are mistaken. -
chris at 04:25 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
ClimateWatcher, the radiosonde reanalysis data is very problematic as has been known for long time [*]. What radiosonde data were you thinking of? There is loads of data from satellites that indicates an increase in upper troposphere water content pretty much as expected from enhanced greenhouse induced tropospheric warming. See for example: Dessler, A. E., Z. Zhang, and P. Yang (2008), Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003–2008 Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20704 here Gettelman A and Fu, Q. (2008) Observed and simulated upper-tropospheric water vapor feedback J. Climate 21, 3282-3289 here Buehler SA (2008) An upper tropospheric humidity data set from operational satellite microwave data J. Geophys. Res. 113, art #D14110 here Brogniez H and Pierrehumbert RT (2007) Intercomparison of tropical tropospheric humidity in GCMs with AMSU-B water vapor data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, art #L17912 here Santer BD et al. (2007) Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 104, 15248-15253 here [*] Soden BJ, et al (2005) The radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening Science 310, 841-844. here who state: “Although an international network of weather balloons has carried water vapor sensors for more than half a century, changes in instrumentation and poor calibration make such sensors unsuitable for detecting trends in upper tropospheric water vapor (27). Similarly, global reanalysis products also suffer from spurious variability and trends related to changes in data quality and data coverage (24)." -
Albatross at 04:24 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud, You are straying off-topic, please take questions about the "missing' heat to another thread. And you ought to know that the fine example of cherry-picking by by Knox and Douglass has been refuted by von Schuckmann and Le Traon (2011) . You see, 'skeptics' keep trying to shoot holes in the theory of AGW, bless them, but they keep failing, and have been doing so for well over 100 years now. Worse yet, in order to try and shoot holes in the theory, they oftentimes have to resort to cherry-picking, inappropriate statistics and tricks to hide the incline (e.g., in temperatures) or decline (e.g., in Arctic sea ice), and all sorts of other antics. -
pbjamm at 04:21 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud@87 "Nevertheless, the fact that large numbers of scientists and people from other disciplines refute the AGW hypothesis..." They may dispute the AGW hypothesis but no one has yet to (successfully) refute it. The fact that there is dispute also does not mean there is not consensus. consensus (from dictionary.com) : 1.majority of opinion: The consensus of the group was that they should meet twice a month. 2.general agreement or concord; harmony. or according to m-w.com: a : general agreement b : the judgment arrived at by most of those concerned Notice that 100% agreement is not required to reach a consensus. As Bibliovermis points out @89 "Scientific consensus is reached through accumulation of peer-reviewed research." Nothing nefarious about many scientists reaching similar conclusions (general agreement) when examining the facts. -
Albatross at 04:16 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud, Perhaps a more appropriate, more powerful, term to use is 'consilience'. I agree though, nature and physics do not give a hoot about polls, and science is not a popularity contest. With that said, the theory of AGW is well established. If the 'consensus' issue is irrelevant, please then explain why those in denial about AGW or so-called 'skeptics' insist on falsely claiming that there is no consilience and second, then claiming that this somehow refutes the fact that the theory AGW is real. These studies and polls have been conducted to address that very strawman raised by "skeptics". Regarding the stolen emails and the often mangled interpretation of Trenberth's words, that has been dealt with at SkS here, here and here. The latest research suggests that the 'heat' may not have been 'missing' after all, we just were not looking in the right places. -
Stephen Baines at 04:13 AM on 13 May 2011CO2 has a short residence time
Sorry...I meant a net transfer of C13 depleted carbon. -
Stephen Baines at 04:10 AM on 13 May 2011CO2 has a short residence time
Drrocket To repeat, we as scientists know these things with great confidence. 1. CO2 is increasing. 2. Stable isotopic signatures clearly indicate that the added CO2 is derived from plant matter. 3. That plant matter could only be from losses of terrestrial biomass (through land-use changes) and burning of fossil fuels. 4. The increase has been less than predicted if human emissions stayed in the atmosphere. 5. There has not been a large enough change in terrestrial biomass to account for the change. 6. The ocean is acidifying even though it is warming, (which should cause pH to increase as CO2 outgasses) That means it is a sink for CO2 at present. There is simply no way to reconcile those facts with the statement "Neither species of CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere more than a year or two." You would need to identify a massive previously unidentified net transfer of C13 enriched carbon into the earth's atmosphere. Even if the atmospheric CO2 relaxation half-life were on the order of centuries (as we think), the net transfer would have to equivalent to 1/2 the living plant matter on earth over the last 150 years. With a relaxation half-life of <1 year (as you suggest), you would be talking quite a bit larger. What is your proposed source? -
ClimateWatcher at 04:06 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
The water vapor feedback is negative ... Indeed, recent observational evidence has been consistent with the climate model projection of a strongly positive water vapor feedback. The sonde data disagree. And, so do observations of emissions. The water vapor channels from satellites depict the energy at which water vapor emits to space. Spatially anyway, the highest levels of water vapor emission are from the sub-tropics. The dynamics ( who'd have thought, dyanmics? ) of subsidence account for this, of course, but spatially, if one looks at regions excluding high clouds ( which are far more important radiatively than gasses ), then higher surface temperatures correspond to greater emissions from water vapor. Lower surface temperatures correspond to lower emissions from water vapor. The correlation is less than with the window emissions or with the wings of CO2 emissions, but this is negative feedback. -
chris at 04:02 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
yes, very strange, Albatross; it's astonishing that Dr. Lindzen has been pulling this stuff out of the hat for the better part of 20 years. Perhaps at some point it could have been described as provocative, but it seems a little more disagreeable than that nowadays. The response to Lindzen's critique (that I quote from) of Hoffert and Covey's paper (whch was in fact published in 1992, and not 1993 as in my post above), by Hoffert and Covey is very interesting. It pretty much tears apart Lindzen's conjecture, and is astonishingly modern; it could have been written yesterday, and gives a pretty up to date account of energy balance, ice age cycles and radiative forcing. Incidentally Hoffert and Covey's original paper cited in my post above, refers to another of Lindzen's subsequently falsified assertions; Hoffert and Covey say:"Lindzen(13) holds that GCMs err on this point and that water vapour feedback is in fact negative (deltaQclear/deltaT is less than 0, because tropical cumulus towers enhanced by glonal warming dry the upper troposphere enough to reduce infrared opacity worldwide)."
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:59 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud @ 87... "It only takes one experiment by scientist or non-scientist to prove them all wrong." Same goes for gravitational theory, relativity and evolutionary theory (still looking for that darned pre-cambrian rabbit). The point is that no one is even close to putting forth a competing theory on global warming. There have been a few ideas put out but none comes close to explaining the full body of empirical evidence the way CO2 does. The day someone puts out a realistic competing theory I can guarantee that everyone in the "warmanista" camp (okay, John maybe "hottie" is better) will be all ears! I would welcome a rational new theory with open arms. -
ClimateWatcher at 03:55 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Richard Lindzen is one of the most prominent and widely-referenced climate scientist "skeptics". After all, there is a scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming You should probably add that Richard Lindzen is part of that consensus - his published works indicate AGW due to CO2. -
Rob Honeycutt at 03:51 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud... Funny how Trenberth would probably be one of the first in line on the list of climate scientists who accept AGW. So, I'm not sure how your comment relates to the topic, and in fact, you obviously have a critical misunderstanding of Trenberth's statements. -
Bud at 03:51 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
"Recently Lyman et al. [1] have estimated a robust global warming trend of 0.63 ± 0.28 W/m2 for Earth during 1993–2008, calculated from ocean heat content anomaly (OHC) data. This value is not representative of the recent (2003–2008) warming/cooling rate because of a “flattening” that occurred around 2001–2002. Using only 2003-2008 data, we find cooling, not warming. This result does not support the existence of a large frequently-cited positive computed radiative imbalance (see, for example, Trenberth and Fasullo [2])." "In summary, we find that estimates of the recent (2003–2008) OHC rates of change are preponderantly negative. This does not support the existence of either a large positive radiative imbalance or a “missing energy.” [1] J. M. Lyman et al., “Robust warming of the global upper ocean,” Nature, Vol. 465, 2010, pp. 334–337. [2] K. Trenberth and J. Fasullo, “Tracking Earth’s energy,” Science, Vol. 328, 2010, pp. 316–317. Recent energy balance of Earth, R. S. Knox and D. H. Douglass, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627-0171 USA E-mail: rsk@pas.rochester.edu International Journal of Geosciences, 2010, vol. 1, no. 3 (November) -
les at 03:48 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud, 87 Not a fan of Kuhn, then? Can you post us some sources from the history and/or philosophy I'd science that backs-up your views? I've read a lot of that kind of stuff but have not cone across anything like you've posted by recent writers. Much appreciated. -
Bibliovermis at 03:43 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud, Words have multiple meanings. Choosing a different meaning of the same word to defend your position only clarifies how wrong you are. Scientific consensus is reached through accumulation of peer-reviewed research. It is descriptive, not proscriptive. A scientific consensus is overturned when new research or new interpretations of old research that better fits the observations is presented. It is not refuted by calling it a consensus and conjuring vast conspiracy notions to explain it without acknowledging the accumulated research. If your explanation for a scientific consensus is vast conspiracy, rather than the outcome of the scientific method, you're almost certainly engaged in cognitive dissonance rather than rational thinking.
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