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Bob Lacatena at 08:41 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
126, RW1,Look, I can only deal with one thing at a time.
Apologies, but you cannot one the one hand claim that there is other evidence for negative cloud feedbacks (without producing it), and on the other ignore the contrary evidence (neatly summarized and cited by SS) provided as rebuttal. But I will agree, we should continue to focus on your numbers, and your interpretation of Trenberth's diagram, as I believe that is where you will get the greatest insight into where you are mistaken. Once we get past that, we can revisit your position on the issue by considering other factors. -
Bob Lacatena at 08:38 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
126, RW1,At the end of my post #2.
As before, I cannot make heads or tails of those numbers. I can see, though, that you are trying to distinguish clear and cloudy sky in your numbers, and since we have already established that that information is not available in Trenberth's diagram, I can dismiss it as inaccurate. If you'd still like to explain that set of numbers, you can try, but please be clear. What you have now is not. But to give you a generic answer to your "why do they accurately predict" query, if your numbers come to 239 at TOA (no matter how you got there) you are going to get 255K. If they come to 390-396 from the surface, you're going to get 288K-289K. That running your calculations in reverse brought you back to these numbers is no big surprise, but doesn't validate the logic behind the calculations. -
muoncounter at 08:36 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Chris G#70: "My guess is that MIT is biting their lip" My guess is he didn't get an invite to this lecture and won't be attending this event. It looks like MIT is doing quite well in spite of Lindzen. -
RW1 at 08:32 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
Sphaerica (RE: 117), "2) Do you have any response to the question that I've posed 3 times (posts 27, 71, 90) and KR once (post 94)? For the fifth time, do you have any response to the fact that multiple studies, using a wide variety of methods, all point to a climate sensitivity of 3 or greater, and so the chance of cloud feedbacks being negative or neutral is slim to none?" Look, I can only deal with one thing at a time. There are many facets to this whole thing - each of which involve a significant degree of complexity. I can eventually address those things in their appropriate threads. -
Bob Lacatena at 08:29 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
126, RW1,All the energy entering and leaving the system is radiative. This seems to be a major source of confusion on a multitude of issues.
All of the energy entering/leaving from space is radiative. That does not allow you to ignore other energy transfers between the surface and atmosphere. Those are not inconsequential. It's an "energy budget," not a "radiation budget." The diagram covers the movement of energy in a three layer model (surface, atmosphere, space). The only way for energy to get in from and out to space is radiative, but that does not apply to transfers between the surface and atmosphere. All energy transfers must be accounted for. You can't simply choose to ignore some numbers. Why do you think things add up properly when they are included, and don't when they are excluded?Where is the surface emitted of 396 W/m^2 in your numbers?
I gave this in post 110, but to repeat and clarify... If you want to consider the atmosphere in total, it gets 79 in from space which is reflected back (a wash). 23 are reflected through from the surface and can also be ignored (a wash), as does the 40 that passes through radiated from the surface. That leaves us with, coming from the surface, 17 from thermals, 80 from evapotranspiration/latent heat, and 356 absorbed through radiation (we've already recognize the 40 that passes through, so we don't work with the whole 396, just the remaining 356), for a total coming into the atmosphere from the surface of 17 + 80 + 356 = 453. Another 78 are absorbed from inbound sunlight, from space, giving a total absorbed by the atmosphere of 531. The atmosphere emits 333 down to the surface as radiation, and 199 (169 from the atmosphere, 30 from clouds) up into space, for a total of 532. So the atmosphere gets 531(532) from above and below, and sends out 532(531) up and down, but not in equal measure (if it did the surface of the planet would be 255˚K, and we'd all be dead, or else we'd be ice-loving lifeforms huddling around geothermal vents in the deep ocean). We can't keep going around and around with this. It's a simple diagram. Sit down with a piece of paper and add the numbers up. It's really not that hard. -
Alec Cowan at 08:19 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
@Stephen Baines #66 Please, don't follow that path. It SEEMS to be the right thing to do. I know it's an off-topic here and I don't want to paste here a long post in other forum (with Poptech) So I provide the link here. The key subject is that being true that they operate that way, one has to avoid following the same behavioural path no matter it is difficult. Don't feed the image, only try to show how they operate and what supine human defects are exploited. -
RW1 at 08:18 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
Sphaerica (RE: 115), "113, RW1, 'From the ISCCP data, which says that clouds cover 2/3rds of the surface. This means 1/3rd of the surface is clear sky (i.e. cloudless).' No. The ability of clouds to absorb IR is different from "clear sky" (i.e. the atmosphere)." I know - that's the whole point of separating the clear from the cloudy sky, as I did. "One cannot simply take a percentage. It's a meaningless estimation." Relative to the whole of the energy flow from the surface to space, the percentage of clear vs. cloudy sky is what matters. " If my calculations are in error, why do they accurately predict the correct brightness temperature of 255K? Where do you do that, and how?" At the end of my post #2.Moderator Response: [mc] Fixed closing italics tag. -
logicman at 08:14 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
My comment #65 dana1981 - I accept what you say in reply to my comment - with no reservations. -
RW1 at 08:03 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
Sphaerica (RE: 116), "115, RW1, The surface cannot be "getting" 517 watts in, as it's only emitting 396 W/m^2. You are ignoring the 23 reflected, 17 transported through thermals and 80 transported through evapotranspiration (396 + 23 + 17 + 80 = 516)." No, I'm not ignoring them. The 23 reflected is part of the albedo and not included in the 239 W/m^2 coming in. Latent heat and thermals are kinetic and not radiative, so the net effect they have on the radiative budget is zero. All the energy entering and leaving the system is radiative. This seems to be a major source of confusion on a multitude of issues. The surface is not getting 516 watts in, as if it was, the surface would be radiating 516 instead of 396. "The 239 comes from ignoring the reflected incoming radiation, which for all intents and purposes never affects the system. So 341 in - 102 reflected = 239. Similarly, 341 out - 102 reflected = 239. Everything balances." Where is the surface emitted of 396 W/m^2 in your numbers? You have to show how the surface is receiving this many watts with 239 entering and 239 leaving. All the energy has to be accounted for, and you can't simply create an additional 120 watts out of nothing (516 - 396 = 120). -
Stephen Baines at 08:00 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
CNR "And a basic premise for the public trust in experts is that they rely on the same principles in their public apperances _as experts_ as in their peer-reviewed scientific work..." I get the sense that some scientists think different rules apply in the academy and in the public sphere. If you're going to play by different rules, maybe you should have to state that you are doing so up front. Otherwise all that sweat involved in providing balance in the academy may be for naught. How would that be enforced? Would MIT want bother? I don't know. -
Albatross at 07:57 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
h pierce @46, Really, it never ceases to amaze me the lengths "skeptics" will go to to defend the misdeeds and rhetoric of Lindzen, Christy and Spencer etc., but what you do not realize is that by trying to defend the indefensible you are only further undermining the beleaguered credibility of the "skeptics", and yours too. I suggest you follow the link in NewYorkJ's post @32, and if you are trying to argue semantics on this issue you are on thin ice. Multiple, independent datasets (both from thermometers and proxies) show that Lindzen's claim about the "anomalous minimum near 1880" (he said nothing about 1800-1900 as you claim) is demonstrably wrong. I suggest that you read the full post and look at the figures available here. There are error bars on the graph that I provided-- did you not see see the grey lines? Interesting how Pat Michaels failed to present error bars in one of his key figures in his recent testimony to Congress, and now here we have "skeptics" trying to use error bars to cast doubt. The double standard is telling. As for the Canadian weather station temperatures, data are measured to the nearest decimal degree, not half degree. I have no idea where you sourced that myth. If you do not believe me, go to the Environment Canada web-site and look at the current weather at some of the stations, or look at the historical data. -
Chris G at 07:52 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Regarding Lindzen and MIT: My guess is that MIT is biting their lip because they long ago decided that empowering their employees to express their views without repercussion was more valuable than any damage that those views might cause MIT. -
Chris G at 07:48 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
h pierce at 05:46 AM on 23 April, 2011 I'm not sure where you learned your stats, but you have been misinformed; with enough measurements, you need far less than 1 degree to achieve significance. For practical purposes, thermometers can be considered to generate discrete distributions. For example, if you roll a 6-sided die a million times, and the mean of those rolls was 3.6 instead of the expected value of 3.5, you could tell with near certainty that the die is unbalanced. Look up discrete distributions and do some reading before repeating that mistaken assertion again please. (This feels like something I've covered before.) -
SNRatio at 07:46 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
( - Response to deleted snipped - ) As for the topic here, I have tried to follow Lindzen's climate-related activities for a while, and I can't really find any excuse for what he is doing. It is completely basic to the scientific discourse to represent the different conjectures, hypotheses, theories and results in a way the proponents can accept, and I find Lindzen is constantly violating that principle. Whenever we are reviewing papers and find unfair or misleading citations or representations, we reject, or require it to be corrected. We can not let it pass. And a basic premise for the public trust in experts is that they rely on the same principles in their public apperances _as experts_ as in their peer-reviewed scientific work. The public messages are subject to popularization, but in no way that can imply that competing views are misrepresented or simply suppressed. As I find Lindzen often does, and we get several examples of in this post and the discussion. -
muoncounter at 07:45 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Sphaerica#44: "I personally have lost a great amount of respect for MIT as an institution." Lindzen is a tenured professor; he can say just about anything and there's very little that MIT can do about it. Right or wrong, most universities try to keep hands off the 'free speech' of their faculty. h pierce#35: "Lying to the US Congress is a very serious felony and carries severe penalties. " That's a good one! Like no one's ever done it and gotten away with it before. -
Stephen Baines at 07:40 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Peter Freeman's cameo has actually gotten me to harden my stance somewhat on ethics. A kind of creeping relativism has engulfed almost any discussion of science and policy. It may have started on the politcal left through post-modernism, but it has been adopted by those fighting all science based policy on a number of fronts. When scientists, like Lindzen and Christy, make statements that clearly fly in the face of established research without at least providing a proviso (e.g., "this is not what most of my colleagues think," or "I am not talking with the imprimatur of so-and-so intitution."), they are feeding into that motif. Anything goes and science is simply politics in disguise. That is what makes me rather angry, because it threatens our ability to make any rational decision as a society, no matter what the issue or the values at stake. It's a real philosophical scorched earth policy. -
logicman at 07:38 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
"The models do say you should have seen 2-5 times more" I think the source for that idea can be found in the testimony to Congress of Patrick Michaels: "Ground-based temperatures from the IPCC show a rise of 0.11°C, or more than four times less than Hansen predicted." In his testimony, Michaels showed a graph in support of his claim in which only Hansen's scenario A is shown. B and C were omitted, with B being Hansen's most likely scenario. This cherry-picking on the grand scale was noticed at the time: http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/models-dont-work.htmlResponse:[dana1981] No, Lindzen in the past has been very clear that his numbers are based on omitting aerosols and thermal inertia. I don't think it's accurate to infer he's misrepresenting Hansen et al. 1988 the way Michaels did.
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Alec Cowan at 07:20 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
@Peter Freeman #63 and previous We should have seen more warming? Yes or no? and, why? (Saying "yes" or "no" is not a valid answer) Do you have something to provide related to that? I know that in 1 hours, 3 hours or 1 day you'll part to never return here, but I have to ask accordingly to what this site is and not according to what you are trying to do here. -
Stephen Baines at 07:11 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
"'All other environmental issues, pollution, over foresting, over fishing, decertification, clean water and ocean destruction have fallen off the table thanks entirely to 'climate science.' " I'm not sure why you have this impression, and it strikes me as a false dichotomy. Just this week in the New York Times there has been a ranging discussion of policies regarding fisheries. Speaking as a scientist, I have many colleagues right now studying effects of deforestation, overfishing, water issues and pollution. I can't count how many actually. Climate change poses a real problem though because it fundamentally alters how we handle those problems, and because we weren't prepared to account for it. There is a lot of ground to make up. Many scientists are quite dejected about it, actually... Again...there are sections devoted to issues like these around the site. I invite you to read. -
Alec Cowan at 07:11 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
What problems do you all have with the figure? Reflected solar radiation (101.9)/Incoming solar radiation (341.3) = 0.298 (global albedo) What is that figure doing here? I don't see you are going to get any of it as it looks pretty "constant", don't you think? No detail about low and high clouds can be got from there. Then no delta something or delta nothing, as you like. It looks quite an off-topic in this post. Just the same old song played the last few days with Trenberth being hiding behind everything because, he got mail! -
Bob Lacatena at 07:04 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
61, Peter Freeman, You can discuss the IPCC here only where you can directly tie it to Lindzen. Your understanding of the leaked e-mails is incorrect. There are a variety of threads on that topic. You can use the search box at the upper left (just type in IPCC) to find them and learn more. Concerning your anger... let me describe mine to you. Unlike you, I thoroughly understand the science. I invested a great portion of my life, starting in grade school, to understanding math and science. This equipped me well to understand climate science today. I've since spent much time in the past years specifically studying climate science. I began as a true skeptic. There was a time, a period of about six months, where I vacillated between accepting and refuting climate change theory, as I came across what appeared to be one good argument one way, and then a refutation and argument the other way. I went back and forth and back and forth. After a great amount of research and effort I came to recognize that current climate science is very, very solid, and all of the denial positions are built on misrepresentations and misinterpretations. Not some of them -- all of them. Which leads me to my anger. I have a 16 year old daughter. Beyond her, I have a healthy respect for humanity, and those billions of people whom I will never meet who share this world with me, and must live with the consequences of climate change after I'm gone, when it will be both too late for me to act, and too late to even say "I'm sorry." ( - Snip - ) The effort to combat climate change, meanwhile, is actually minimal. It will not hurt economies. It will not cost jobs. It will take time, and if we start too late, it will cost more and take longer than it should. So I, and many others here, get angry at people like Lindzen. I feel anger towards people like yourself, who get angry at the wrong problem, one that doesn't even really exist (i.e. the evil scientist cabal bent on one-world-socialist-government). Climate change is serious. You owe it to your own stated respect for other people to research the issues further, and to take the time to learn whatever it is you need to learn to make sure that you have a valid and correct position on the issue. Whether you are right or wrong isn't going to change what the planet does in the next twenty years, but you are going to have to shoulder your portion of the blame if we could do something but don't because of people who are ignorant of the science, and yet venomously vocal about the politics. So... weigh your anger against mine. You can doubt my position, if you feel you are informed enough to do so, but you cannot doubt my intentions, or my right to my own anger, any more than you doubt your right to your own. But in the end, whether one is right or wrong, anger is always an obstacle that must be overcome in order to do the right thing.Moderator Response: [e] Let's please not create invitations to descend into Godwin's Law. -
Clouds provide negative feedback
Berényi - Indeed, it's a matter of math. And physics. Tied to observations. However, Sphaerica is correct in stating that the Trenberth numbers are summaries, not a climate model, and playing with the numbers does not replicate actually considering the physical interactions of climate elements! As to the cloud effects, I suggest you look at the Trenberth 2009 paper for details. The term "cloud" occurs ~30 times in the text (not counting references to CloudSat), and in >12 bibliography titles; clouds were recognized as a major source of inter-estimate variability when that was written, and Trenberth et. al. put a lot of work into it. In other words, if you disagree with the numbers, address the paper that presented the numbers! -
Peter Freeman at 06:43 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Sphaerica ( -Ideological rant snipped- ). As for for expressed anger I comprehend what is going on here and what effect it will have and has had on the world and yes it makes me angry! All other environmental issues, pollution, over foresting, over fishing, decertification, clean water and ocean destruction have fallen off the table thanks entirely to 'climate science.'Moderator Response: [DB] Many here share your frustrations. But your entire 2nd paragraph is off-topic on this post and thread (but other threads are here on those topics, so feel free to use the Search function to find them). But don't blame those issues on "climate science". -
Bob Lacatena at 06:42 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
58, Peter Freeman. I suggest you post your comments on the IPCC on IPCC Reports: Science or Spin?, but only after first reading the post there. You should also first take hede of bullet point 3 of the comments policy:No politics. Rants about politics, ideology or one world governments will be deleted.
Moderator Response: [DB] Nice rede. ;) -
Tsumetai at 06:33 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
You need at least ca. 1 deg C difference between means of two sets of temperature data for stat significance at p < 0.05
Nonsense. The error in global mean temperature observations is on the order of a few thousandths of a degree. -
dana1981 at 06:29 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BP #53 - no, I'm not aware of any transcript of this interview. We transcribed the relevant quotes ourselves. CBD - I agree with you that Lindzen's comments about "the models" are a blatant misrepresentation of many other scientists' work. He's made similar statements in the past, but I'm not sure if he's made this statement specifically about models before. I think he usually says "we should have seen" without clarifying according to who/what. -
Berényi Péter at 06:23 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
#122 KR at 03:55 AM on 23 April, 2011 Sphaerica is quite correct Sphaerica is not correct and you know it. It is math, not a matter of opinion. -
Stephen Baines at 06:21 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
I would like to reiterate CBDs statement that the IPCC is NOT a research organization...it only summarizes the research that has been done. It does it very well, considering the task, which is ridiculous... If you look, Lindzen, Christy, McIntyre etc are all cited..despite having views off the mainstream. -
Bob Lacatena at 06:18 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
50, Peter Freeman,Sphaerica so you think that in 1988 the IPCC had already done scientific research?
The IPCC does not do research. They compile existing research into a comprehensive document. Prior to 1988, a vast amount of climate research had already been performed (hence the IPCC's ability to compile it). Climate science is over 100 years old. Today, a quick visit to Google Scholar shows over 686,000 papers/citations on climate change since 2000 alone. None of these were written by the IPCC because, as has already been explained, the IPCC does not do research.It does not take much intelligence at to see that the IPCC...
You are parroting the WUWT misrepresentation of the IPCC. I suggest you control your emotion and actually learn more about it. Reading the actual IPCC report would be a good start. I'd also suggest you reread both the comments policy (for instance, you have wandered off topic here in attacking the IPCC). You might also consider your own original post about "hate" expressed in blog comments. It's fine to express opinions and debate, but there's no need for the clear anger. -
Peter Freeman at 06:15 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Mr Moderator do you not think that in order for you to be taken seriously inconstancy and bias should not be your operating criterion, don't you think?Moderator Response: [e] Indeed the rules apply to everyone; as a guest here you are asked to abide by them. -
Stephen Baines at 06:13 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
"Sphaerica so you think that in 1988 the IPCC had already done scientific research? You suggest I get an education!" Peter...read your history. The first evidence for the effects of green house gasses on climate precedes the IPCC by 100 years (see Tyndall) and Ahrrenius. Extensive research after that confirmed this role and established increasing CO2 concentrations reslting from human output. It was being discussed in the 50s and 60s! That's historical record documented on this site. Look around! It takes a lot of effort, but it's worth it if you are actually curious. The IPCC process (it is not really a group) was set up to address predictions based on that previous research and a prior NRC report that raised alarms. It did not arise from the ground fully formed but is just part of a gradual development and accumulation of knowledge. It was not bound to find a positive effect of humans on climate, and that is not implied in its mission statement. It takes an extreme prediposition to distrust to make that leap. IPCC only recently came down firmly on the side of a human influence existing. -
Berényi Péter at 06:09 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
#43 dana1981 at 05:38 AM on 23 April, 2011 Lindzen made that statement in the radio interview linked toward the beginning of the post. I see. Isn't there a transcript? -
CBDunkerson at 06:07 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Peter, by 1988 all of the 'broad strokes' of AGW science were long since settled. You really should read up a bit before proclaiming that the IPCC 'jumped the gun'... the greenhouse effect was first discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1806. Thus, by 1988 it was hardly some new and unproven concept. -
funglestrumpet at 06:00 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Peter Freeman @ 36 As I understand it, Lindzen's work on climate sensitivity to CO2 was debunked because he excluded large areas of the globe in his work, including the polar regions, which are warming at a rate considerably faster than elsewhere. He is supposed to be producing another paper that is global in extent, though this has yet to appear. Does Mr Freeman support Lindzen's continued quoting the results of his debunked paper, knowing it will influence policy on a topic that could lead to countless loss of life and untold hardship? If yes, why? If no, would he please retract his tirade so that this site can maintain the standards it sets itself. It would be a shame if the comments section were to degenerate into the sort of thing that one sees elsewhere. There really is something up with that. -
CBDunkerson at 05:57 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BTW, since he was on a radio interview answering questions in real time it is entirely possible that in this case Lindzen simply mis-spoke. Dana's point that in the past he has been clearer about explaining that this '2 to 5 times as much warming' is based on taking the GHG forcings and positive feedbacks without considering other factors that the models account for. It came out as a false claim that the models got the temperature rise radically wrong, but that might have been because he didn't fully explain that he was talking about his own view of how the models should work rather than their actual results. -
Peter Freeman at 05:56 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Sphaerica so you think that in 1988 the IPCC had already done scientific research? You suggest I get an education!It does not take much intelligence at to see that the IPCC is a farce and that it has never done a days worth of science as it was never intended to do any science.How does an organisation have a mandate to prove its conclusions that it had when it was founded?Moderator Response: [DB] Please tone down the rhetoric and invective. And the IPCC doesn't actually DO any research. -
Stephen Baines at 05:55 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Sphaerica and Finglestrumpet have me rethinking a bit. While it may not make much of a difference in the larger debate, institutions do need to take a stand on the ethical issues this debate has raised regarding public communication. There should be clear ethical rules regarding how you present yourself, and your statements, to the public. And there should be teeth in those rules - although I'm not sure what those would be. One should of course be free to say what they want, but not under false guises. Government scientists are already subject to these rules, as I understand it. Of course, another layer of compliance is likely to make it even harder for scientists to connect with the public. -
CBDunkerson at 05:51 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
dana1981, my issue is that in this case he specifically attributes the '2 to 5 times as much warming' as being shown in "the models".... he is not simply saying that >he< believes that would be the result, but that others (presumably the IPCC) have shown it. However, the reality is that 'the models' show warming in line with observations.... because they do account for the things Lindzen dismisses. It is one thing for Lindzen to make false statements on his own behalf... another step worse when he attributes these claims to others who actually got it right. -
h pierce at 05:46 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Albatross at 02:06 AM on 22 April, 2011 at 7 Don't get carried away with these kind of graphs because temperature mesurements used for calibration aren't that accurate. In the US temps at weather stations are measured to +/-1 deg F. In Canada temperature data is reported to nearest +/- 0.5 deg C. Where are the error bars for plots in the graph? You need at least ca. 1 deg C difference between means of two sets of temperature data for stat significance at p < 0.05. Thus you really can't say 1700-1800 was colder than 1800-1900. We know from historical accounts that 1800-1900 was pretty cold in the NH. -
dana1981 at 05:43 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Stephen Baines #42 makes a valid point. There is no question whatsoever that climate models don't predict 2-5 times more warming than observed. As CBD put it, Lindzen is basically creating his own model which totally neglects aerosols and thermal inertia, and that model is wrong, but it's also a strawman. Lindzen made this and other indisputably false statements in this radio interview. At least he wasn't speaking to Congress, but he's still misinforming a segment of the public. -
Bob Lacatena at 05:41 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
36, Peter Freeman, Concerning the relevant aspect of your post... substantive, contradictory, outlier positions are welcome in science. Science is no different from any other human endeavor, and it will invoke the same degree of passion, both positive and negative. Passion is a good quality in a scientist. Science needs people pushing the envelope, and there will be some who are annoyed by that. But Lindzen, and others, are guilty not merely of disagreeing with the mainstream, but of openly and blatantly ignoring and misrepresenting the science to Congress and the public. It's one thing to publish a "renegade" scientific paper or theory. It's quite another to testify before Congress, or to tout to the media, positions that are known to be abjectly false. This is what Lindzen has done. He's not guilty of being a heretic. He's guilty of being a reputable scientist, who should know better, and yet making patently falsifiable claims. So, yes, in cases such as this, there should be academic and career consequences. No one, in any career, gets to abuse their position to promote their own personal agenda. That applies to lawyers, doctors, and many others. In some professions, malpractice can cause one to be disbarred or lose their license, or at a minimum be fired. Blatant disregard for one's own profession and professional responsibilities should come with consequences. Personally, I would think that at some point MIT would begin to find him to be a major embarrassment. I personally have lost a great amount of respect for MIT as an institution. They are in a difficult position... an institution can't be burdened with even a sniff of trying to control or direct their own academics. That's wrong. But professional misconduct is wrong, too, and reflects just as poorly on the supporting institution. Normally, professional misconduct is very strictly defined, but this is new ground, and pushing the envelope. The fact that Lindzen is using his position, which is buttressed by his association with MIT, to sway Congress and people with clearly false claims puts MIT into a very bad light. -
dana1981 at 05:38 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BP #41 - Lindzen made that statement in the radio interview linked toward the beginning of the post. -
Stephen Baines at 05:34 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
"Lindzen says that there in not enough warming to validate IPCC's claims, so he should be "compelled to change their (his) ways or suffer serious consequencies." I note that this is fine according to the Comments Policy, not political and all in line with good science." Lindzen makes a statement about climate model predictions. That statement can be shown to be factually incorrect, teh models do not make those predictions (see post above). Nothing political about it. If he did so knowingly, it is a severe breach of public trust. Nobody is saying anyone should suffer consequences for stating his "feelings", "opinions" or "values." -
Berényi Péter at 05:33 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
I am looking for sources of quotations in the post above. Text "the observed warming is too small [...]" is found here: House of Lords (UK) Select Committee on Economic Affairs 2nd Report of Session 2005-06 The Economics of Climate Change Minutes of Evidence Memorandum by Professor Richard S Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology followed by Examination of Witness, page 45, 25 January 2005. Worth reading in full. However, I could not find "The models do say you should have seen 2-5 times more [...]". Is there anyone who knows the source and can provide a pointer to the original text? -
dana1981 at 05:32 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
CBD #34 - actually if you go back through the history of Lindzen's "Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected" arguments (linked in the article), he's very clear. He says based on GHGs only, the Earth should have warmed much more than it has. This would be true if aerosols and thermal inertia didn't exist, but it's hard to characterize their omission in anything other than a very poor light. Lindzen justifies these omissions by claiming they wouldn't make a significant difference in his calculations, which is clearly wrong, as this article shows. Yet Lindzen continues to make this factually wrong argument again and again and again and again. I think a couple commenters here need to make a distinction - just because a smart person says something doesn't mean there's any validity to it. Facts are facts and reality is reality. If a biologist told you that elephants are pink, that wouldn't change the reality that elephants are not pink. And a lot of people would question why that biologist claimed otherwise. That's what's happening with Lindzen. He's saying things which are indisputably wrong, which it's hard to believe he doesn't know are wrong, which makes people question why he's making these claims. -
CBDunkerson at 05:28 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
h pierce, Lindzen's comments in the article above were not to congress and not based on his own research. Did you even read the article? Basically, he said that climate models show alot more warming than has been observed. Problem is... they don't. Instead, he is essentially creating his own climate model where he takes the forcings used in standard models and then calculates warming from that without considering the ocean heat sinks, aerosol effects, and other 'anti warming' factors in the IPCC and other models. His model then comes up with vastly more warming than has been observed and based on this he denounces the models which match the observed warming. In short, it is exactly the same game Monckton played with the supposed 'IPCC warming graph' that appeared nowhere in the IPCC reports and had vastly different values than the warming graph which WAS in the report. An extreme form of the 'straw man' argument... their opponents predictions turned out to match observations, so they ignored the actual predictions and made up their own fake versions. -
Bob Lacatena at 05:25 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
36, Peter Freeman, You are entitled to your opinions, and your emotions. You're entitled to anger at one group of people, while giving another group a free pass for equivalent (but far worse) behavior. You're entitled to your own interpretation of events, albeit very, very different from mine and many others, and seemingly founded in extreme ignorance. You are not entitled to have seen "many dozens of graphs and read more analysis than I could ever understand" and then comment as you did (until you make a concerted effort to actually understand them). You are not entitled to misunderstand, misinterpret, and misrepresent history as you did by saying "in 1988, before a single 'scientist' had done any work, the IPCC knew.." [For that one, I'd strongly suggest that you go read Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming, to see exactly how far back the science goes, as well as how solid it is.] You do not get to bring angry invective to the table, disparaging everyone (especially after your first post complained of exactly that behavior!). What you do get to do is to educate yourself. This site is full of science. It's even organized into neat little beginner/intermediate/advanced tabs. The Internet is a wealth of information, presented at many levels, and you can learn enough to contribute a valid position to the discussion, as long as you are wary and seek out true, reputable science sites, and not the myriad venomous faux-science sites that will mislead and confuse you rather than educate you. Go do some reading. Fill the holes in your knowledge. You do not get a place at the table until you do. -
Stephen Baines at 05:23 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
@ Finglestrumpet Look, I feel your pain and frustration. But I think you are apportioning too much power to the scientific community in this instance. The fact that there is actually a public "debate" on humans are causing global warming despite clear statements from so many scientific societies is exhibit A for the case that the scientific establishment only contributes to the public debate - it does not set the terms, especially in the short run. Exhibit B is that censure, even if justified, creates the appearance of a "witch-hunt" and martyrdom (Cue cries of Galileo!). Development of a governmental mechanism to limit public statements would certainly run afoul of academic freedom and freedom of speech concerns that protect all sides of the debate (including Mike Mann). It would also almost certainly take longer to get agreement on how to control access to the debate while preserving those freedoms as the debate itself would take. Basically it's a distraction. Could the societies and MIT set some ethics guidelines regarding how Lindzen protrays his views in public (much as government agencies do for, say, NOAA sicentists like Conway when talking about his book with Oreskes)? Possibly. Not sure it will make a lot of difference. The real problem is not that Lindzen is allowed to speak, it's that people give him credence without checking his statements. Scientific illiteracy, the complexity of the issues, politics, PR by vested interests are all at work. As a scientist, though, I have to believe that the evidence eventually prevails over the long haul. It has time and time again in previous debates where many of the same forces were at work. Time is of the essence, but you need not convince everybody to win this debate... Can Lindzen of Christy can be reprimanded for making demonstrably incorrect statements in front of congress...maybe. But, you still have to prove they deliberately misled. Were any scientists held accountable for their testimony during the tobacco hearings? Just saw PFs post. Double wow. That would be exhibit C. -
CBDunkerson at 05:20 AM on 23 April 2011Climate's changed before
ciclista, see CO2 was higher in the past. Basically, the Sun puts out more energy as it gets older. Thus, since CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) act to retain some of the Sun's energy within the climate system a fainter Sun means more GHGs were needed to have the same temperature. -
Climate's changed before
ciclista - A good question, which has already been discussed on this website in the Does high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2 thread. Long story short - CO2 has been higher in the past, but other forcings have a history too. The sun was dimmer hundreds of millions of years ago (about 4% during the period you mentioned), and the combinations of forcings including CO2 and sunlight match the climate record. See also CO2 is not the only driver of climate.
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