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Comments 90101 to 90150:

90101. TimTheToolMan at 14:07 PM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       "Can you honestly say that you attributed every and each quote coming from CA?" I've only made one and yes, it was attributed.
       Moderator Response: [muoncounter] See the prior moderation response at #110; there was no quote in #98.
90102. TimTheToolMan at 14:02 PM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       "By the way, the accusation you make in 112 should be substantiated. " All I can say is that genuinely interested readers should visit Climate Audit to see the other side of this story and then make their own minds up based on the evidence presented.
90103. TOP at 14:01 PM on 3 April 2011
       Soot and global warming
       Cryoconite Holes Apparently cryconite holes have been around since 1870. They are part of the ecosystem. Effect of Life in Holes. Some of the melting is due to heat released from the organisms that grow in cryoconite. Cryoconites in the Antarctic Weblog of Belgians studying cryoconites. The cryoconites in the Taylor valley support an active, diverse assemblage of organisms despite the fact that they may remain sealed from the atmosphere for decades. Given the density of the cryoconites in the dry valleys (~ 4-6% of ablation zone surfaces), flushing of the cryoconites during warm years could provide a vital nutrient and organic carbon source to the surrounding polar desert. LINK Some cryoconites have been around a while. It seems more plausible that it isn't the carbon's heat absorbing properties, but rather it's food value that is important in the formation of cryoconite holes. Part of the food chain.
90104. Philippe Chantreau at 13:46 PM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       I seldom get my comments published at RC, in fact I can't even remember when was the last one I got one through. As for science winning, Muller is experiencing just how that goes at WUWT. After having found that the instrumental temperature data is really not so unreliable, he's getting the lynch mob at WUWT on his heels. Talk about going against the agenda. Let's keep it real. The moderation on this site is far superior and more flexible than anywhere else I know. Deltoid lets just about anything through and that has the inconvenient of degenerating into childish fights. Sks is exemplary. Check out the 2nd law of thermodynamics thread to see how much pure nonsense was allowed to trolls "going against the agenda" only for the sake of being open. Can you honestly say that you attributed every and each quote coming from CA? By the way, the accusation you make in 112 should be substantiated.
90105. TimTheToolMan at 13:23 PM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       At the end of the day, word is getting out to scientists who understand and appreciate whats going on here. More detail is emerging regarding undisclosed truncations of the proxy data now at both ends of the reconstruction. Science always wins in the end.
       Moderator Response: [DB] "Science always wins in the end." Something dissemblers and disinformationists would do well remembering.
90106. Philippe Chantreau at 13:22 PM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       TTTM, you want to experience censorship? Go to CA or WUWT and try to challenge their views with the same freedom you have enjoyed here. Don't be shy, pretend to be a real warmist and go gung-ho. See what happens, then report back to us. That's a form of scientific experiment, should be OK with you right?
90107. TimTheToolMan at 13:03 PM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       "I believe this to be against forum policy, although I would prefer if the comment was not removed." Climate Audit was clearly credited with the quote. I see I am again being censored on this site. This has now moved beyond poor form now, moderators.
       Moderator Response: [muoncounter] Your last mention of CA was in comment #98, where there is no quote. Whining about censorship here is laughable; complaining about moderation is usually deleted under the Comments Policy.
90108. Tom Curtis at 12:40 PM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Sorry, I included the lower magnification version of MBH 99 that I had already posted rather than this one: If a moderator could correct the error, I would be very thankful.
90109. Tom Curtis at 12:37 PM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       TTTM @107 simply asserts that he has the facts correct without argument. In doing so, he ignores the clear demonstration that his purported analysis is false - specifically the claims about truncation. To be perfectly clear about this, he* claimed that the third step of Mike's method was "Discarding all values of the smooth after the end of the proxy period." But the smoothed plot ends in 1973 for MBH 98, and 1978 or 1979 for MBH 99. Clearly the truncation method claimed by TTTM was not used. You can see this clearly for your self below: MBH 98 fig 5 end plot magnified twentyfold. The red marks indicate 1900 and 1950. The large black dashed line (splodge) is the smoothed function. The thin continuous line is the annual data which clearly continues past the last value of the smoothed function by several years (in fact 7). MBH 99 (with alternate smoothing in green) magnified 10 fold. The blue line is the original MBH smoothing, the continuos black line is the year by year data, which clearly extends beyond the smoothed curve by at least one year, and probably two. The second step is also false, in that it claims the instrumental period beyond 1995 (MBH 98) and 1998 (MBH 1999) was padded by the instrumental mean of the calibration period, ie, zero. This step is necessary in UC's reconstuction because he reconstructs the smoothed lines as terminating in 1980, so the intstrumental period does not provide enough padding by itself. But Mann does not extend the smoothed period beyond any value which would require such padding, ie, 1973 for MBH 98 and a 50 year smooth; and 1978 for MBH 1999 and a 40 year smooth. So with steps 2 and 3 clearly refuted, all TTTM has to fall back on is the claim that Mann used the mean of the instrumental values to pad, as Mann claimes; or whether he uses the actual instrumental record itself as claimed by the "climate auditors". This subtle difference has been decided in the auditors favour by the auditors on the basis of eyeballing comparisons of unmagnified graphs which do not include any plots of a smooth padded with the mean of the values, ie, one of the two different methods at issue. Frankly, I have followed TTTM's claims back to there source and amongst all their efforts, there is no attempt to plot a smooth using the mean of the instrumental values (Mann's claimed method) and hence no possibility of their having critically analyzed and rebutted that alternative. Of course, had Steve McIntyre used Mann's actual method, he would not have had his apparent justification for slandering Michael Mann by saying: "UC, that’s an interesting find. At the time of this post, we hadn’t managed to pin down Mannian smoothing methods – bu we did so in Sept last year while considering Mann 2008. If you’re right about the splice, it places an interesting light on Mann’s outburst at rc:

       "No researchers in this field have ever, to our knowledge, “grafted the thermometer record onto” any reconstruction. It is somewhat disappointing to find this specious claim (which we usually find originating from industry-funded climate disinformation websites) appearing in this forum. Chu’s recent use of this graphic adds a little piquancy to this find."

       (post 6th May 2009) So, anyone really interested in the truth can indeed find out the details, and the details clearly refute TTTM's claims. Unfortunately for him, the truth is to be found on this site rather than from the slander pits from which he regurgitates. *TTTM's claims, I have discovered, are in fact a simple cut and paste of claims made by Steve McIntyre, which is why his references to links have no links attached. I believe this to be against forum policy, although I would prefer if the comment was not removed.
       Moderator Response: [mc] Duplicate image replaced with blowup.
90110. TimTheToolMan at 11:10 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       "So, TTTM's contention about the nature of the trick is incorrect, and John Cook is correct." I have simply described the facts about Mike's Nature Trick as determined by analysis and reproduction, you have described what Mike said about the "trick" Anyone who is genuinely interested can find out all the details for themselves and make their own opinion but one thing is certain... the facts cannot be found at sites like this one.
       Moderator Response: [DB] You entitled to your own opinions, just not your own facts.
90111. Tom Curtis at 10:21 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Turn's out people who make unwarranted accusations of (what they believe to be) wrong doing without adequate basis make me angry too. The difference between me and TTTM is I am angry because somebody is trying to drag somebody elses name through the mud without reason, while he is angry because their name is not being dragged through the mud without reason. Anyway, here is the terminal portion of a modified version of the MBH 99 graph blown up by 358%: The black line is the annual values of the reconstruction. The red line is the instrumental data. The blue line is the original smooth, while the green line is a smooth using the padding technique currently favoured by Mann. That technique uses only proxy values for the smooth. TTTM claims using the instrumental values introduces a warming bias. However, quite plainly, the smooth using the instrumental mean terminates halfway between the last two values of the annual proxy data. In contrast, the proxy data only padding results in a smooth that terminates significantly below those values. So, and obviously, using proxy only data results in a cooling bias, as it inevitably must in a slope with a rapidly rising trend line. And that really is the point. Despite their high dudgeon, the "climate auditors" only care about the techniques of Mann (or Hansen, or Jones) because they record a rapid rise in temperatures in the twentieth century. Any technique that shows that rise they find objectionable, with consequent condemnation. It should also be noted that contrary to TTTM's claims, the annual data in MBH 99 shows no inclination to decline. Rather it shows a relatively level temperature over the period 1945 to 1980 (as indeed is shown by the instrumental record) although the last two values may be the start of the rapid post 1975 rise in global temperatures.
90112. muoncounter at 10:20 AM on 3 April 2011
       It's cooling
       johnd#151: "I don't see this as strange" Probably not. But what is strange is the ability of deniersphere bloggers to trumpet an event like this as if it means something. From the post, Small numbers of juvenile harp seals are typically found each winter stranded along the coast of the northeastern United States. But this year, well over 100 adult harp seals – not juveniles – have been spotted … In some areas they’re reporting three times the normal number of sightings ... WUWT omits the part of the article where we learn that “the number of harp seals found in the northwest Atlantic” is “9 million.” So a hundred lost seals are news for Watt$ and co. But the 8,999,900 who know where they are don't get a mention. Now that's a cherrypick!
90113. Tom Curtis at 09:34 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Further to TTTM @101: The divergence problem does raise an issue about the ability of some tree rings to track temperature. It is, however, only some. Most tree rings do not show a divergence problem, and show the same long term pattern of temperature change in reconstructions. Further, non-tree ring proxies such as stalagmite data and coral data also show the same long term pattern of temperatures. This of itself implies the divergence problem is some unique problem due to modern industrial activity - and there are a host of potential candidates for the cause of the problem. The broader implications have been adequately discussed above. They show, not a rush to insert a "warming bias" by the scientists, but rather a rush to condemn on the basis of shoddy analysis by the "auditors".
90114. Tom Curtis at 09:26 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       TTTM @101, the smoothing had no effect on the scientific results in MBH 98 and 99 as noted above, so you are wrong. As regards the WMO document, Jones decided to create three hybrid temperature proxies. There is nothing wrong with this. Nobody rational objects to the satellite temperature data because it uses a series of different satellites using different instruments, and hence constitutes a hybrid series. Nor are there any serious objections to the SST series that have similar problems. The only requirement for integrity in creating hybrid series is that you are clear that you have done so, and that you leave a paper trail so that anybody who wants to check on possible problems can do so. Jones did both. He clearly documented the inclusion of instrumental data, and he clearly referenced the source papers of the data he used so that anybody who thought there was a problem could back track and check. The response of real scientists to this would have been to back track, and then question the use of tree rings as temperature proxies. For the faux auditors, such quiet academic work was not enough because it could not raise the rabble. Instead they make trumped up charges of fraudulent activity. They then condemn themselves to an ever increasing and unsupportable conspiracy theory to maintain their trumped up charges as independent panel after independent panel looks at the charges and correctly finds that there was not academic wrong doing, and no questionable integrity in the case of the scientists involved. The integrity of people who would rather make accusations of wrong doing than notice that a graph ends in 1973 rather than in 1980 I leave to the reader to decide.
90115. Tom Curtis at 09:12 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Further to DBDunkerson @99, Michael Mann has commented on this issue at RealClimate. The most important point he makes is that the conclusions of the paper were made based on an analysis of the individual yearly records and decadal averages. Consequently the smoothing method makes no difference to the conclusions of the papers:

       "In some earlier work though (Mann et al, 1999), the boundary condition for the smoothed curve (at 1980) was determined by padding with the mean of the subsequent data (taken from the instrumental record). This does make a small difference near the end of the series. It doesn't effect any of the conclusions drawn in the paper though. These were based on comparisons of the individual reconstructed annual values (individual years and decadal averages over 10 consecutive years) from AD 1000-1980, with those from the recent instrumental record (1981-1998), and centered on the fact that the recent instrumental values were outside the error range of the reconstructed values over the past 1000 years and were not related to the smoothed curve."

       Astute readers will also notice that Mann padded with the mean of the instrumental period rather than with the intstrumental measurements themselves. That is an important point. First, it means that in splicing the instrumental record to the proxy record, Jones was not emulating Mann's procedure. Therefore, "Mann's nature trick", contrary to TTTM, is not the three step procedure described by him (which is not a procedure ever used by Michael Mann). In fact, in a post co-authored by Michael Mann at RealClimate, the "Nature Trick" is explicitly described:

       "The paper in question is the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) Nature paper on the original multiproxy temperature reconstruction, and the ‘trick’ is just to plot the instrumental records along with reconstruction so that the context of the recent warming is clear. Scientists often use the term “trick” to refer to a “a good way to deal with a problem”, rather than something that is “secret”, and so there is nothing problematic in this at all."

       So, TTTM's contention about the nature of the trick is incorrect, and John Cook is correct. For those who are interested, the difference padding with the instrumental record (as TTTM claims Mann did) and padding with the mean of the instrumental record (as Mann actually did) can be seen by comparing figures 1 and 3 above. In figure 1, Jones did pad with the instrumental record. The result is a much larger slope on the end of the tail, even in the final years of the 70's (ie, the end of MBH 98 and 99's smooth) as the final value closes on the mean. The exact behaviour does depend on the smoothing function used, so this difference is probably not that significant. As a side note, TTTM's third about truncation is definitely false. In MBH 98, a 50 year smooth is used, and the smoothed function terminates in 1973 (see figure 5 (PDF), ie, 25 years before the padding data ends, and 7 years before the proxy data ends. In MBH 99 a 40 year smooth is used and the smoothed function ends in 1979 (see figure 3 above), ie, twenty years before the padding data ends and 1 year before the proxy data ends. Clearly the end of the smoothed function was simply a consequence of the algorithm used, not the result of a deliberate truncation. These errors in the "reconstruction" of MBH's methods are typical of the "climate auditors". They repeatedly think of methods to "reconstruct" climate scientists' procedures that sound suitably culpable to them (or can be spun that way) and then present that as though it was an actual reconstruction of the scientists methods without checking the fine details that distinguish between those methods and closely similar methods. They are so slack that, as seen above, they can describe a graph terminated in 1973 as being terminated in 1980, visually a very noticeable difference. In this case, even if Mann had used TTTM's methods 1 and 2, there would have been nothing wrong with it. To my mind, it would have been more defensible than using the 20 or 25 year mean of the last values in the proxy data (a common alternative). Any padding of a smoothing function constitutes a prediction of future values of the smoothed data. Using a 25 year mean of the proxy data would constitute a prediction that the data would have a negative trend after 1980 reaching a value equal to the mean of the 1955 to 1975 values in 2005. Given this is a temperatures proxy, which has tracked temperatures very well since 1880, it seems far more likely that the proxies would continue to track temperatures. Using the instrumental values to pad the series, ie, predicting the proxies would continue to track temperatures, therefore seems wholly defensible. In contrast, it would not be defensible as a method of padding Briffa's series which demonstrably does not track temperatures post 1960. That, or course, is not what Jones did in the WMO report. Rather, he created a hybrid temperature reconstruction from two sources of data, as he in fact informed us in that document.
90116. Rob Honeycutt at 09:11 AM on 3 April 2011
       Hockey stick is broken
       TTTM said... "Take out the smoothing and the uptick at the end of the series in figure three (above) disappears. The temperature proxy should show a decline in temperatures as recorded by the tree rings." The problem there is that there in no decline in the temperature. We have actual recorded data showing what the modern temps are.
90117. adelady at 08:36 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       I've posted my reply at Is the hockey stick broken Moderator, please delete from this thread if you wish.
90118. adelady at 08:33 AM on 3 April 2011
       Hockey stick is broken
       This is a response to TTTM @ Muller Misinformation#1 "Adding a warming bias" = "Using modern, accurate records"? You know something? Whenever I have something modern that accurately performs some task, I prefer it. Using a laser level when doing household repairs is a great deal better than the tedious back-and-forthing of earlier techniques. However, we sometimes find ourselves without our modern gadgetry, so we use the best of what we've got. When we get the chance we check with the best modern equipment and information. And that's what the paleo + modern assembly does. It would be really terrific if every single paleo reconstruction were both accurate and adequate for recent, shorter timescales, but some aren't for one reason or another, eg the ones with century averaging periods. We do the best we can with what we've got. And MBH's work has been validated by similar results with other paleo series that don't have such issues. If MBH were being promoted as the "best" despite disagreement with everyone else's work in this field, you might have a point. But there's agreement, so your point fails.
90119. johnd at 08:16 AM on 3 April 2011
       Newcomers, Start Here
       MMead at 07:18 AM, it's quite possible that you did enter it correctly, but sometimes gremlins do appear that cause links not to work as intended. At times the moderators will correct such broken links as is often noted on some posts, but obviously not always. I try to use the preview panel to make sure the link works, or even check it immediately as the post appears just to prove it out. If you are wanting more discussion about the study you presented, it may yield more results if you repost it again on a more appropriate thread as it appears that it has not found much interest to comment here. Out of sight, out of mind perhaps?
90120. adelady at 08:04 AM on 3 April 2011
       It's cooling
       johnd, and we must also acknowledge that, every single year, some birds fly off in the wrong direction for their escape from winter.
90121. TimTheToolMan at 08:02 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       "Take out the smoothing and you know what the results show? Exactly the same thing, just with more bumpiness on the curve." Wrong. Take out the smoothing and the uptick at the end of the series in figure three (above) disappears. The temperature proxy should show a decline in temperatures as recorded by the tree rings. The broader implication of divergence to dendrochronology is that because divergence is not understood, tree rings cannot be relied upon to accurately reflect temperature. [ -SNIP!- ]
       Moderator Response: [DB] Accusations of fraud and scientific misconduct snipped. This is not CA where anything goes. Commenting here is a privilege, one that can be rescinded. Be advised.
90122. MMead at 07:18 AM on 3 April 2011
       Newcomers, Start Here
       Stu and johnd, thank you for your replies. I thought I entered the link according to the tips provided, but being a technological dinosaur, I apparently did it incorrectly. My apologies and thanks for correcting it.
90123. Philippe Chantreau at 05:37 AM on 3 April 2011
       Hockey stick is broken
       Considering all the accusations of fraud and incompetence that have been thrown at Mann for the hockey stick, I find it especially important to point toward what can be uncovered when the skeptics's work is examined with the kind of attention they claim should be applied to scientific work. A major point in the accusations of McIntyre is from McIntyre&McKitrick 05, which expanded on a previous 04 paper. It is there claimed that Mann's statistical methods generate hockey sticks from artificially generated random data that do not contain a signal. Closer examination of the M&M computer code used in this "discovery" shows that the code is designed to sort hockey stick shapes first, then retain only these samples from a much larger number. These are the ones shown by M&M. The rest of M&M's work is riddled with much of what they accuse others to practice. The much touted Wegman report is no better. In addition wegman has been especially reluctant to let others examine his computer code, a behavior that skeptics systematically equate with fraudulent intentions. Thanks must be given to Deep Climate for investigating this in real skeptic fashion: http://deepclimate.org/2010/11/16/replication-and-due-diligence-wegman-style/ http://deepclimate.org/2010/10/25/the-wegman-report-sees-red-noise/ http://deepclimate.org/2010/10/08/wegman-under-investigation-by-george-mason-university/ What is most shocking about the whole thing is how little attention has been paid in the mass media, always so quick at picking up climate deniers accusations toward scientists.
90124. Rob Honeycutt at 05:24 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       TTTM... Can you please inform us as to how that would alter any of the broader implications of the research? As I seem to remember, MBH98 is not a study on a temperature reconstruction of the past 100 years, it's a study on a temperature reconstruction for the past 1000 years. Right? So, can you tell me how CA's quibbling over Mann's methods of splicing the data changes the broader conclusions of the research?
90125. Philippe Chantreau at 04:31 AM on 3 April 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       LJR, I have to thank you for the link to Pr Jin-Yi Yu's lecture, which indeed could not be recommended enough. It certainly would be a nice addition to the site, or to the scientific guide.
90126. johnd at 04:22 AM on 3 April 2011
       It's cooling
       muoncounter at 02:39 AM, most animals are very sensitive to subtle changes occurring in their natural environment. This is almost always reflected in their reproductive process where breeding rates adjust according to the coming seasonal conditions. For those animals that produce multiple offspring, the "choice" as to how many there will be is made at the beginning of the breeding cycle well before the conditions that will support the increased numbers that eventuate are evident, to man at least. It is not a case of always producing multiple births and the excess perish, animals that normal carry one offspring, or at times miss breeding altogether, will suddenly carry multiple embryo's. Another example that is often observed is water birds building nests at elevations that seem to account for the coming seasonal water level. I don't see this as strange, as whilst most people are becoming even more oblivious to coming change, (how many people need to be told by the TV news that it's going to rain whilst others sense it days, even weeks ahead), the change when it eventuates is not a spontaneous happening, but the culmination of a long process where subtle indicators begin to appear well before the eventual outcome. This is witnessed by our increasing ability to produce more accurate short and long range forecasts, the difference between those who have limited ability, and those who seem to have an uncanny ability, is that the latter have discovered what the most relevant indicators are, that combined produce an accurate prediction. Whist man must rely on formulas and theories in order to bring it all together, and this is the important bit, it is all based on measurements that are taken from the physical world. Now taking the forecasting of SST's as an example, some researchers believe they now have the ability to accurately forecast perhaps two years ahead. That means that the indicators they are tracking this very day are changing in such a way, that they indicate the beginning of a process leading to an eventual outcome in two years time. It may well be that that process is already well advanced, but man's ability to sense it, and thus measure it is still very limited. Thus if we accept that what occurs at any point in time is not a spontaneous event, (even though some people always seem to get soaked because they didn't have a clue it was going to rain), but instead a result of a long ongoing process, don't you think that at least some of the animals that live in that physical world are also able to sense well ahead of time, those subtle changes that we are only finally learning to map and understand.
90127. muoncounter at 02:39 AM on 3 April 2011
       It's cooling
       Anyone in need of a laugh must read this CP analysis of the latest wackiness in Watt$ land: Seals predict cooling! Canadian Harp Seals may have “read” the predictions of the coming decades of stabilization of global temperatures and perhaps some cooling. Animals like the Harp Seal have experienced many millions of years of climatic change and, through the complex processes of evolution and natural selection, may have developed an ability to sense coming changes.
90128. CBDunkerson at 02:32 AM on 3 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       TimTheToolMan, you do realize that the practical difference between the 'infuriating', 'ignorant', and 'untrue' explanation and your own is effectively nil, right? Take out the smoothing and you know what the results show? Exactly the same thing, just with more bumpiness on the curve. The current rate of warming is still greater than anything found in the proxy records. Temperatures now are still the warmest in the studied period. Every conclusion of MBH98 and MBH99 is still just as valid... as should be obvious given the numerous studies since then (even 'skeptic' studies) which have validated it. The difference between this and 'making a mountain out of a mole hill' is that the mole hill actually has some elevation to it.
90129. muoncounter at 02:30 AM on 3 April 2011
       A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
       Gilles#149: "We begin the era of struggle for exhausting resources - meaning in reality the end of economic growth" So the real Gilles has finally emerged: Civilization to collapse, apocalypse on the horizon. Why then are you not fully committed to this or some other fully renewable scenario, as the last gasp of a civilization in peril? Could it be that it's simply easier to be a nay-sayer, shouting 'non!' at every opportunity? Could it be that doing the work necessary to offer something constructive is not Gilles' cup of cafe-au-lait?
90130. KR at 02:20 AM on 3 April 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       L.J. Ryan - Fascinating post, you've obviously put a lot of work into it. It is, unfortunately, completely incorrect. Tom Curtis has shown that far more rigorously than I could. As les noted, you have an embedded link to a Professor Jin-Yi Yu's lecture on the greenhouse effect. It's a nice presentation - I suggest you actually read it, and it's conclusions, rather than mining it for equations.
90131. Tom Curtis at 02:06 AM on 3 April 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       LJRyan @924: 1) The emissivity/absorptivity of a body varies with wave length. Therefore there is no absolute emissivity, only emissivity/absorptivity relative to a certain range of frequencies of emissions/absorptions. Hence we have: (Eq 1a') reflectivity(sw) = earth's albedo(sw) = 0.3 Eq 1a") 1 - reflectivity(sw) = emissivity(sw) = 0.7 (Eq 1b') reflectivity(lw) = earth's albedo(lw) = 0.02 (Eq 1b") 1 - reflectivity(lw) = emissivity(lw) = 0.98 Where (sw) indicates the range of wavelengths at which the Sun's radiation is most intense, and (lw) indicates the ranges of wavelengths at which the Earth's thermal radiation is most intense, and where equation (1a'and ") consider the whole Earth system, while equations (1b'and ") consider only the surface of the Earth, and do not include the effects of the atmosphere. 2) (Eq 2) is ok as it stands, provided it is indexed for wavelengths as in equation 1. 3) Equation 3 is false in that you interpret σTe^4 as dealing with the Earth's surface only, while S/4*(1-A) definitely deals with the total incoming radiation at the top of the atmosphere. Consequently, equation 3 should read: (Eq 3) σTe^4 = S/4*(1-A) where Te is the effective temperature of the outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere, S is the total incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmoshere and A is the Earth's Albedo. Because equation 3 is valid only for the TOA, it places no limit on surface temperature of the Earth by itself, and no limit on the maximum energy radiated by the surface per second. 4) Equation 4 is false. The maximum black body absorption at the TOA is S/4, ie, the case where the Earth's albedo is zero. In this case, it is approximately 340 w/m^2. 5) Equation 5 is false. You had already applied the shortwave emissivity by compensating for Earth's albedo. There is no need, and it is contradictory to apply a second and different emissivity value. 6) Adjusting for errors to date, equation 6 is true. Stated correctly it is that the maximum out going radiation from the Earth at the top of the atmosphere, averaged over time, is S/4 or approx 340 w/m^2. Note, this is a TOA equality, not a surface equality, so as yet it tells us nothing about the Earth's surface temperature. 7) Equation seven and comments are irrelevant because of the preceding errors. We are not screaming about forcings. We are wondering why you can't even get the simple things right. I will not comment further at this time because: a) You have not established the appropriate groundwork, and are instead working on a host of demonstrably false assumptions. b) Your tables which carry your argument have unclear symbols, and are derived by an unexplained method. In other words, they are simply bare assertions.
90132. Bob Lacatena at 02:03 AM on 3 April 2011
       Arctic Ice March 2011
       68, Ken Lambert, Number silliness. Confuse people with "ooh, that's no so much" analogies. Nice try. First, Arctic ice extent is down from the 1978-2000 average by 40%. That's 6.5 million kilometers. In addition, even within the area that still has 15%+ ice, the ice is clearly not evenly distributed over the extent. There will be more ice at higher latitudes, where the angle of incidence of the sunlight is less direct. The areas which receive more direct sunlight will have much less ice, even if they are part of the minimum extent, and so the area we are considering is even greater than 6.5 million kilometers. You also talk about only 3 months of solar radiation with low or negligible albedo. This is wrong. First, the Arctic day at that time of year is 24 hours long, so every day is like two equatorial days (or 3 temperate days, to put things in perspective for the casual readers who tend to live in temperate climates), so 3 months are more like 6 to 9. Similarly, the area did have a low albedo when it was covered with ice. The albedo of water is very dependent on the angle of incidence. Since at that time of year the angle of incidence is great than that at the tropics (66˚ at peak), it is like a non-stop tropical sun. The albedo of snow/ice is 0.9. The albedo of water at an angle of incidence 40˚ or higher is 0.1. Far from negligible, it is quite the opposite. Open water at that angle absorbs almost everything the sun can beam down. 24 hours a day. Over an area greater than 6.5 million kilometers (versus what used to happen, before global warming kicked in). With almost nothing reflected back. And it's getting worse! The day will soon come when that 6.5 million km² area is even larger. As far as Antarctica being "the big knob," that's silly. Antarctica is a continent, covered with mountains, so the surface is at altitude and always well below freezing. No melting on the continent itself is remotely possible. No matter how much the earth warms, the area of ice over Antarctica will not change. The "big knob" there can't be turned, so it's not a knob at all. Stop distracting and confusing people with gibberish.
90133. L.J. Ryan at 02:03 AM on 3 April 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       Riccardo 927 you said: "that's just your interpretation" Be a bit more specific please. What is "that"?
90134. Gilles at 02:03 AM on 3 April 2011
       A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
       bug : next muoncounter's post has been posted before this one actually ...
90135. Gilles at 02:01 AM on 3 April 2011
       A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
       152 : end of economic growth doesn't mean sudden collapse of civilization - it just means that growth scenario of FF consumption and GDP such as described by the SRES are unrealistic. So if you really think that CO2 is the worst problem of the future, it should be acknowledged as a benediction. My opinion is however is that it will be very difficult to avoid an overall world recession, and that basically the current "developing" countries will never succeed in reaching the standard western level. This opinion is not a computer scenario for 2030 , 2050 , or 2100. It is just the observation of the real state of the world - all commodities climbing to the sky, the debts climbing accordingly, the only regulation being through recessions. I'm not saying "non" to opportunities - I'm very glad if you can offer any opportunity to avoid recessions. I'm just observing that building windmills or putting solar panels on a roof have never protected any individual or any country from economic crisis - because the problem is in the always diminishing yields and increase of all production costs - and replacing an expensive energy source by another expensive or inconvenient energy source doesn't solve the problem. I'm not saying "no" to opportunities : I'm just reckoning they're not enough to fix the issue.
90136. Riccardo at 01:34 AM on 3 April 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       L.J. Ryan that's just your interpretation.
90137. L.J. Ryan at 01:27 AM on 3 April 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       les 925 "Where did the rest of the material come from" Calculated base upon GHG physics. For example, an atmosphere with LW ε=0, will reflect all terrestrial emissions. That is, until accumulated energy is sufficient for visible spectra emissions. By the way surface energy for 1.998046785(T_eq) should be 120422 W/m^2.
90138. Ken Lambert at 00:55 AM on 3 April 2011
       Arctic Ice March 2011
       Sphaerica #67 "Facts one and two point to a need to ignore [--Snipped--] obfuscation (like trying to trivialize the melting of the Arctic ice by declaring that the Arctic is small in relation to the tropics) and instead begin to take reasoned, responsible action towards cutting fossil fuel emissions at the earliest possible date." Well it is small in relation to the tropics - and it should be looked at in terms of the total quantity of heat imbalance claimed to be available to warm the planet. " The act of melting the ice will cause a serious positive feedback which will add to the warming (and thus will increase future melting, which will further add to warming" You seem to be suggesting that the Arctic is some kind of ice melt trapdoor which lets in vast amounts of heat if it melts. Adelady seems to be of the same impression. There cannot be any more heat energy available than the Insolation at TOA. Loss of ice and more open ocean means less reflection and more absorbtion of the available solar radiation in the summer. But the numbers are tiny. To get a more accurate picture of the numbers - the Arctic ocean (15.3 million km2) is 3% of the Earth's surface and the area inside the Arctic circle 66N is about 4.4% (22.4 million km2). The Minimum Sea ice extent is 12 million km2 down by 0.27 million km2 from the previous low of 12.27 million km2 according to the original post. So we are talking about an extra 0.27 out of 12.27 (which is 2.2%) being open ocean exposed for 3 months to solar radiation with low or negligible albedo. This is 0.27 million km2 of the Earth's surface of 510 million km2 or 0.05% (5/100 of 1 percent). Antarctica has 90% of the planet's ice - kilometres thick. It is the big knob on the Earth's thermostat. The Arctic is a sideshow in comparison.
90139. Bob Lacatena at 23:31 PM on 2 April 2011
       Arctic Ice March 2011
       65, johnd, What the heck are you talking about? No one is saying we need to take direct action to stop the Arctic from melting, other than to stop greenhouse gas emissions. You're creating straw men. Fact 1) The Arctic is melting, and it is very clear empirical evidence that the globe is warming in a way that has not been seen for many, many thousands (or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands) of years. Fact 2) The act of melting the ice will cause a serious positive feedback which will add to the warming (and thus will increase future melting, which will further add to warming). Fact 3) Facts one and two point to a need to ignore denialist obfuscation (like trying to trivialize the melting of the Arctic ice by declaring that the Arctic is small in relation to the tropics) and instead begin to take reasoned, responsible action towards cutting fossil fuel emissions at the earliest possible date.
90140. les at 22:27 PM on 2 April 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       924 L.J. Ryan. Nice embedded link to the lecture notes of some Professor Jin-Yi Yu - who has some other nice explanatory material for those finding this all a bit hard. http://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/ess55.html Where did the rest of the material come from (it is only polite to reference sources, after all)?
90141. mspelto at 21:59 PM on 2 April 2011
       Soot and global warming
       Thanks for pointing out Doherty et al (2010). One key point at the end of the abstract "Nevertheless, the BC content of Arctic snow appears to be no higher now than in 1984, so it is doubtful that BC in Arctic snow has contributed to the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice in recent years." The impact on glacier melt can be real, but likewise would not have accelerated on the Arctic glaciers or Greenland due to BC. The impact on glaciers is limited to the zone where the material can accumulate at the surface and alter albedo. This is not in accumulation zone, nor in zones where there is heavy debris cover. The latter is not seen in Greenland. However, in the Himalaya many glaciers have heavy debris cover near the terminus, and the accumulation zones recieve frequent summer monsoon accumulation limiting the impact of BC to a small section of the glacier near and below the ELA, such as on Boshula Glacier or Gangotri Glacier
90142. Gilles at 21:40 PM on 2 April 2011
       A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
       Philippe, even if CO2 had no infrared bands, we would have faced anyway the exhaustion of FF, and finding replacements would have been mandatory anyway. What I'm stressing here is that it is by no means granted that we will succeed in doing this, and that blindly believing in all fake fire brigades like Ecofys could only worsen the problem.
90143. TimTheToolMan at 19:37 PM on 2 April 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       I wasn't going to post here anymore but this sort of thing infuriates me. Mr Cook, you are ignorant of the facts. You say "The 'trick' is the technique of plotting recent instrumental data along with the reconstructed data." But this in untrue. Specifically the trick has been fully analysed, reproduced and is described in detail at Climate Audit and is described as Mike’s Nature Trick Mike’s Nature Trick was originally diagnosed by CA reader UC here and expounded in greater length (with Matlab code here and here and here ). It consists of the following elements: 1. A digital splice of proxy data up to 1980 with instrumental data to 1995 (MBH98), lengthened to 1998 (MBH99). 2. Smoothing with a Butterworth filter of 50 years in MBH98 (MBH99- 40 years) after padding with the mean instrumental value in the calibration period (0) for 100 years. 3. Discarding all values of the smooth after the end of the proxy period. So you see the instrumental data has a DIRECT impact on the proxy temperature curve before any instrumental temperatures are inappropriately tacked onto it.
90144. L.J. Ryan at 19:36 PM on 2 April 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       KR When investigating complicated system it's important to approach the mechanism front-wise and linearly. Starting at the start (solar input) avoids confusion as introduction of secondary input/variables (forcing) manifest. If in fact, all the tenets of GHG theory are valid then such a stepwise approach will only hone their formulation. Let's start with what we undoubtedly agree: (e₁)emissivity + reflectivity =1 earth's albedo =.3 (e₂)emissivity = ^{absorbed energy}/ _{incident energy}---or stated continuously--- emissivity = ^{absorbed power}/ _{incident power} (e₃) σT_e⁴= ^S/₄ * (1-A) flux density emitted via blackbody earth = flux density absorbed via blackbody earth (note to muoncounter, blackbody equivalent) So σT_e⁴= 240 W/m², represents the theoretical maximum power emitted and adsorbed, via SW, by the surface. This theoretical max flux can be used to calculate actual max flux absorbed by earths surface. Intuitively it make sense, a surface must absorb energy before radiating said energy. So properly, this must be calculated prior to surface to atmosphere emissivity consideration. Also, immediately jumping to actual surface temp and backing out flux, will as said earlier lead to erroneous conclusions. (e₄) Because 240 W/m² is max blackbody absorption it is equal to max incident power. (e₅) Earths ε = .98. Using (e₂) earths actual absorbed power =.98 * incident power = .98*240 W/ m² = 235 W/ m² (e₆)Because 235 W/ m² represents the true absorbed SW radiation value it also represents earth's maximum gray body emissions due to SW. (e₇) When surface LW emission flux is equal to SW solar absorption the earth's system is in equilibrium; 235 W/ m² equates to 254K. Because the 1st law must be upheld this represents the temp maximum via solar radiation. Any additional temperature increase must come from non-radiative energy input. I suspect you are screaming "What about forcing". Ok, by adding radiative reflection/re-radiation flux to solar input, with white, black and gray atmosphere emissivities, LW forcing is easily evaluated. The following section (e₈),(e₉), (e₁₀), demonstrates GHG physics. Specifically, by adding flux regardless of quantitative magnitude and/or vector magnitude. (e₈) Atmosphere ε=0 T_eq=time to equilibrium (e₇) (235 W/m²) Note: As Time approaches 2T_eqthe Surface flux approaches infinity. Also, as Time approaches 2T_eq the atmosphere becomes transparent to visible surface emission...when visible emissions = 240 W/m² TOA equilibrium is at hand. According blackbody emissions this equates to ~1200K. (e₉) Atmosphere ε=1 T_eq=time to equilibrium as defined by (e₈)
       Note: As time approaches 4T_eqthe Surface flux approaches infinity. Also, at 3T_eq the atmosphere radiates 235 W/m² plus the 5 W/m² originally reflected by the surface (e₅) give the required 240 W/m² TOA...302K. (e₁₀) Because(e₈) confers the maximum temperature (~1200 K) for TOA equilibrium and (e₉) confers the minimum temperature (302K)for TOA, radiative forcing is shown to be a false mechanism. That is, since actual temperature (288 K) is well below the minimum temperature established by blackbody atmosphere, ε < 1, will generate a temperature higher then 302K. (e₁₁) If gray body ε=.612 then, according to (e₁), gray body reflectivity = .388 (e₁₂) If gray body ε=.612 then, according to (e₂), gray body absorbed = incident flux* ε. (e₁₃) Atmosphere ε=.612 T_eq=time to equilibrium as defined by (e₈) Note: TOA is achieved when surface radiates 768 W/m²...341K. (e₁₄)As demonstrated, a body's emission can not be increased by it's own reflection,re-radiation, or insulation. As demonstrate lower energy does not increase higher energy, low light does not make more luminous a brighter surface. As demonstrated atmospheric forcing, GHG physics is a false mechanism which in fact violates the 2^nd Law. Choosing to ignore this fundamental law leads to fallacious results. Fallacious result such as 341K with an atmosphere emissivity of .612. But just as fallacious misapplication of physics which leads to ε=.612 equating to 288K. Notice I did not say atmospheric radiation does not exist...I did not say the downward radiation does not exist. Atmospheric radiation is isotropic however, lower energy atmospheric radiation can not increase the higher energy surface. Solar input, assuming .3 albedo, can only account for 240 W/m² flux and therefore delta T between solar input and actual temperature must be a result of non-radiative input.
90145. adelady at 18:33 PM on 2 April 2011
       Arctic Ice March 2011
       johnd, I doubt very much that clouds have had much to do with it (so far). There are probably clues here and here and here and most of all here
90146. Philippe Chantreau at 17:57 PM on 2 April 2011
       A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
       "people will desperately fight to keep as much as possible their standard of living while constantly receding. And the outside temperature will just be their least concern, when looking at their energy bill or learning they have just been fired." And to think that I have been called an alarmist on this very site, without ever producing anything near that kind of a panic in words. Well Gilles, it sounds like you're advocating the complete eradication of fossil fuel use on an industrial scale before it imposes itself on us. Sounds wise. Seems that you're suggesting that the effort should be started as soon as possible in order to maximize the chances to ease up what will be anything but easy. Many will likely agree with you on that.
90147. Gilles at 16:56 PM on 2 April 2011
       A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
       148 : I was just answering question asked by scaddenp #117 and #121 so please don't reproach me it now ! and which "more informed" information? are you serious ? where is the bettest information used by the SRES, since oil and coal production are free to vary randomly between almost zero and tens of Gt at the end of century ? I said it already, a child with a set of colored pencils would have produced exactly the same set of curves - no information there, just "what if" scenarios (and I can give you references showing that even climate scientists recognize that if you insist). I just used the official proven reserves, I did not invent them. The simple fact is that SRES scenarios do simply not care about proved reserves - they just take all kind of proved, unproved, potential, unconventional resources as if we could extract them at the same pace as conventional ones - which is an economical heresy - and peak oil is just currently demonstrating how ridiculous it is. You're just confident in people who repeatedly failed in forecasting energy crisis, that is just now upon us. We begin the era of struggle for exhausting resources - meaning in reality the end of economic growth - and people will desperately fight to keep as much as possible their standard of living while constantly receding. And the outside temperature will just be their least concern, when looking at their energy bill or learning they have just been fired.
90148. Rob Painting at 15:16 PM on 2 April 2011
       Acidification: Oceans past, present & yet to come
       H Pierce - "So you guys stop bugging me!" Stick to the facts, and we won't have to correct you. Deal?.
90149. johnd at 15:15 PM on 2 April 2011
       Arctic Ice March 2011
       Sphaerica at 14:41 PM, I feel you are being "penny wise and pound foolish". Irrespective of what is happening, the melting is a symptom rather than the problem. If solar radiation is a the major factor as DB seemed to stress, then what are you going to do, have everybody wave their hands hoping to blow clouds back over the Arctic to reflect off the solar radiation? If we follow the solar radiation assertion, then shouldn't we be looking at if cloud patterns have changed, and if so has anything man done that could have affected that, or is it simply part of cyclic pattern. I have already indicated what I think may have changed cloud distribution to some degree in other parts of the global system. Every region is linked when it comes to climate. If you want to merely debate the symptoms, then this is the right thread. If you feel that the causes are perhaps more relevant then that will need to be discussed in the appropriate thread.
90150. nigelj at 15:01 PM on 2 April 2011
       Soot and global warming
       Landy Jim #1. There are particulates and particulates. The dark ones absorb heat, the lighter ones from your dust storms reflect heat, as do sulfate aerosols.

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