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adelady at 19:32 PM on 28 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
Well, fancy that! I'm sure that I could (but I won't bother) find a graphic displaying Australia's abundant asbestos resources. The reason we walked away from the mine at Wittenoom and everywhere else was - we didn't want it any more. Asbestos still has its insulating properties and it does have some specialist applications. But we decided it was just too dangerous and we could find other ways to do the things that we had been using asbestos for until that point. I fully expect that we'll reach that point with coal and oil. I'd prefer sooner than later. -
damorbel at 19:29 PM on 28 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #861 RW1 you wrote:- "Do you know that the 2nd law does not apply to photons? Thermal energy by definition is kinetic and not radiative" I suggest a few moments contemplation will reveal that it does. Anything that radiates heat also absorbs heat and, if two bodies are near each other, they are thermally linked by the exchange of photons, in the absence of other heat sources (and heat sinks) the two will arrive at a common temperature, purely by means of radiation. However radiation is not heat, it is a way of transmitting energy that does not involve mechanical contact, so to that extent you are correct. -
Gilles at 18:34 PM on 28 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
I have a question for you, ladies and gentlemen. Here is the last forecast of the International Energy Agency, the respectable "watchdog" of OECD, concerning the future of oil production (WEO 2010)
Note the 40 Mb/d "yet to be developed" or "yet to be found" (meaning that we actually don't know where the hell we could find them.
Could you please explain me the "to be "? if there is no problem in suppressing totally oil in 2050, WTF do we care about missing oil ? are the experts of IEA unaware of how easy it is to suppress oil ? and no - this is not the baseline BAU scenario, it's already a "new policy" scenario.
So I'd like to have your opinion. Who are the clowns here ? IEA ? or Ecofys ?
to be or not to be
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Jesús Rosino at 18:26 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
I'm afraid that, if the so-called skeptics are so skeptical of the obvious physical science, they'll surely be much more skeptical of impact assessments... My motivation is to move the debate from the absurd place in which it is now, toward impacts and mitigation/adaptation options, but I think the battle in that field will be much harder... *I also began to investigate and communicate about climate science as a result of An Inconvenient Truth. -
Gilles at 18:22 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
I respect your involvement in the cause you're defending, but I cannot agree with some of your assertions "And climate sensitivity is the major key to determining the threat posed by climate change." No, it's just only ONE of the major keys : at least two others are the amount of FF we can really extract from the Earth, and the real impact of 1°C warming on mankind. You seem to assume that these two factors are much better known that climate sensitivity (in this case determination of CS would indeed be the crucial step)- but they're obviously not. " That being said, climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, which we are on pace to reach in about 50 years, is very likely between 1.5 and 4.5°C. I've always been impressed about the agreement between numerous different estimates of climate sensitivity, from empirical data from recent changes, to paeloclimate measurements, to climate model runs." well you're easily impressed : if a range of a factor 3 is called an "agreement", then many fields of science become very accurate suddenly ! how can you call that a scientific assessment ? and I recall that's only ONE of the factors - the two others are not better determined. So by multiplying three ill-known factors , we could reach the accurate determination of a "2°C "danger limit"" and know exactly how much FF we should extract to reach it, notwithstanding the uncertainty of a factor 3 in the sensitivity ? I still to understand how this miracle occurs. And the point is that you totally overlook the real problem, which will be the LACK of FF Like you, I think that " a lot of people are in denial about the magnitude of this threat, but many others are simply unaware of it." -
Gilles at 17:48 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
This discussion shows how bad indicator the average temperature is. In many systems, average surface temperature is not directly correlated with internal energy, barring the case of an isothermal copper sphere (and the Earth is obviously not an isothermal sphere). * plug a fridge : the average surface temperature will increase and the internal energy content will decrease * red giants are cooler than main sequence star but their thermal content is higher of course Earth temperature will not vary so much, but still, variation of tenths of degrees can occur without net energy change and even without energy budget change (people often confuse the energy content with the energy flow ) During an intense El-niño -La Niña cycle, average temperature vary by 0.5 °C or more - that is 40 years of supposed anthropic warming ! this can not of course be attributed in a change of the same energy content . Discussing whether the energy content has varied or not is immaterial : it's just uncorrelated, because variations occur mainly through redistribution of temperatures. The point of climate models is that they assume that above 30 years, no spontaneous variation can occur without a change of forcings. But, to my knowledge, there is absolutely no scientific demonstration of this - it is just an assumption. -
adelady at 17:32 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Dana. Thanks for 50 lots of good reading. Hoping for 50+ more, sooner rather than later. -
citizenschallenge at 17:19 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Dana, Congratulations on fifty excellent posts and on your fiftieth post!! It did a very nice job of summing up the story. And I always love those relevant hot links. I have benefited from reading your posts and look forward to many more. peter -
citizenschallenge at 17:14 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
I find it a tragically funny that Miekol finds the following so offense it needs to be censored: "if you're so *genuinely* concerned about the welfare of those 9/10ths living close to the poverty line, then I'm sure we'll here you *loudly* demanding that Western Political Parties impose penalties on any corporations that fail to pay 3rd world nations the same wages for their labor as they pay western workers?" ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ It is the Free-wheeling Free-Market that has created this crisis - yes change will be tough, and with every season we continue to ignore Earth's reality, that change will become even tougher. As for Miekol suggested solution here's a case in point for how business-as-usual benefits the plight of the poor: "Since the 1990s, 40 percent of the increased wealth went into the pockets of the rich minority, while only 1 percent went to the poor majority." http://academic.udayton.edu/race/06hrights/georegions/northamerica/china03.htm -
Marcus at 17:03 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
After all, John, Miekol explicitly accuses Dana of having a vested interest in calling for controls on carbon emissions-thus calling into question her integrity. I was merely questioning Miekol's compassion towards the world's poor. Seems a fair trade to me. -
OPatrick at 17:02 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
johnd, you have a seriously skewed idea of what is offensive. Miekol suggsts that all that matters is that a tiny vestige of humanity survives, but you think it is Marcus' post that is offensive. -
Marcus at 17:00 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Well in that case, John D, Miekol's post should be deleted too-as he is being deeply offensive. Exactly *what* do you find so offensive about my post John? The "concern for the poor" meme is a common argument I hear from those opposed to action on climate change. If you can *prove* me wrong, John D, then I'll happily retract my post, but I fear your objection to it is that it tells some harsh truths about the Contrarians. -
johnd at 16:57 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
The post Marcus at 16:46 PM on 28 March, 2011 is so offensive that it will likely be deleted. Perhaps it should not be deleted to remind us of that old saying-- "What Peter tells me about Paul, tells me more about Peter than it does about Paul" -
Marcus at 16:53 PM on 28 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
Glen @ 100. Anyone counting on the northern tundra to save our collective bacon is *really* living in Cloud Cuckoo Land. Even after the permafrost melts, the soil will be massively nutrient deprived. Second, almost *all* our crops (certainly grain crops) have been bred for the last 8,000 years to thrive in areas with a proper 4 seasons with ample sunlight throughout the year. Trying to grow these grain crops in areas that don't see the sun for more than 3 months at a time are hardly going to be ideal. -
Marcus at 16:46 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
"Nine tenths of humanity is already hovering just above the poverty line. Any carbon pricing will push that nine tenths below the poverty line, and push the majority of the remaining one tenth close to the poverty line." Well, Miekol, if you're so *genuinely* concerned about the welfare of those 9/10ths living close to the poverty line, then I'm sure we'll here you *loudly* demanding that Western Political Parties impose penalties on any corporations that fail to pay 3rd world nations the same wages for their labor as they pay western workers? I'm equally sure that you'll demand that Western Corporations be *forced* to pay 3rd world nations the same price for their resources as what they'd pay in the 1st world too. You really do have to *love* the selective "compassion" of the contrarians like Miekol-they're happy to leave the majority of humanity near the poverty line if it means their corporate buddies can bring home record profits, but the moment you talk about saving the environment, the hue & cry becomes "think of the poor". What contrarians hate is the idea that poor nations *could*, with help from Western Nations, supply their energy needs in a low-carbon fashion &-in the process-avoid having to buy carbon-based fuels from wealthy corporations at highly inflated prices. After all, a nation locked in a poverty cycle due to dependence on fossil fuels is much easier to manipulate & exploit. -
IanC at 16:23 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Tim 108, That statement is made in the context of the discharge oscillator model, where heat is transported in and out of the equatorial region horizontally. The build up is due to heat outside the equatorial strip transported into the strip, so if you add up the heat content from region where WWV is calculated, and the heat content of the ocean outside the region there should be no change. P.3 of Meinen and McPhaden 2010 contains a diagram that explains the discharge oscillator theory. The svendrup transport is a transport in the meridional (N-S) direction, which transports the warm water outside the equatorial region that results in the build up of heat in the equator. -
dana1981 at 16:07 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Thanks for the nice comments all. miekol -"Any carbon pricing will push that nine tenths below the poverty line, and push the majority of the remaining one tenth close to the poverty line."
Nope. Please see CO2 limits will hurt the poor."You have a vested interest, your job."
Sorry, what exactly are you suggesting my vested interest is?"On the other hand if the skeptics are wrong, what is going to happen?"
That's kind of the point. If the "skeptics" are wrong and we behave as though they're right, we're screwed."What matters is that a tiny bit of humanity will survive."
Survival of a tiny bit of humanity is a pretty damn low bar to set. I'd prefer to aim a little bit higher.Moderator Response: [DB] Dana, did you mean this post: http://www.skepticalscience.com/Those-who-contribute-the-least-greenhouse-gases-will-be-most-impacted-by-climate-change.html? -
miekol at 15:55 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
What a marvelous post Dana. I rarely post, but I enjoyed yours so much I felt it deserved a response. You say,"the minimal economic impacts of carbon pricing" What? Are you kidding me? Nine tenths of humanity is already hovering just above the poverty line. Any carbon pricing will push that nine tenths below the poverty line, and push the majority of the remaining one tenth close to the poverty line. You say "I'm an environmental scientist and risk assessor, and when it comes to public health and welfare, we don't mess around. If there's a chance a site is contaminated and poses a threat to the public, the site owner has to either prove that it's safe or clean it up." But that’s the whole point isn’t it. You have a vested interest, your job. You say, “It's true that there is a chance that the "skeptics" are right and the consequences of human greenhouse gas emissions won't be dire.” On the other hand if the skeptics are wrong, what is going to happen? Have you read “Man’s search for meaning,” by Viktor E. Frankl. If not, you should. Vikto E. Frankl was a highly intelligent human being. Probably more intelligent than you or I. If you are right when you say, “we are driving the climate towards potentially catastrophic consequences for much of life on Earth.” It really doesn’t matter. What matters is that a tiny bit of humanity will survive. Like Darwin says, it’s the survival of the fittest. Believe me humanity will survive. I know it will :-) http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/smith-michael_on-globalism.html -
keithpickering at 15:44 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Thanks for your great work in this forum and others. -
Glenn Tamblyn at 15:35 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
scaddenp Fig 2 from Lyman is interesting. Looks like a plateau in the mid 90's, a rise then another plateau in the late 2000's. Could that be the solar cycle? Obviously dangerous to read too much into eyeballing short range graphs. -
Glenn Tamblyn at 15:28 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
TimTheToolMan @108 "variability is intimately linked to alternating stages of oceanic heat content build-up and discharge in the equatorial Pacific" The surface layer of the equatorial Pacific isn't the entire volume of the ocean. And if heat is being exchanged between the ocean and atmosphere this doesn't necesarily mean a change to Total Heat Content. That said anything that causes a heat flux into/out of the atmosphere is likely to have implications for atmospheric phenomena that impact on the heat balance to space. So a more permanent ENSO switch could possible cause a change to THC, a set point change if you will. But I can't see how this could lead to a longer term change in OHC TREND! -
Glenn Tamblyn at 15:18 PM on 28 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
Gilles. 'A few degrees' has one major and overriding implication. Food Supply. Water Stress, Desertification, Erratic Weather and thus unreliable water supply, melting Glaciers etc. Yes we might be able to open up new farm land at higher latitudes but there is less land there and the transition to making previously unfarmed Tundra for example workable may take time. In a world of 9-10 billion people it doesn't take much disruption to existing farming regions to trigger massive famines. Whereas significant cuts to energy consumption? So some of the consumer society goes away - no loss. Did our grandparents have such terrible lives 50 years ago?. Of course in any energy reduced world we could still prioritise the important stuff - hygiene, health care, medicines etc. No more SUV's, $20 air fares, mountains of pointless consumer crap. Who cares about lossing the detritus of life? -
scaddenp at 15:14 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Tim, I saw your exchange with Gavin. I understood your comments about "where's the modelled results for OHC post 2003" to imply that Gavin knew what they were and was deliberately not publishing them because he thought they would be embarrassing. You obviously did not accept the response he gave you. It appears that moderator thought similarly. If this was not what you implied, then I fear you have expressed yourself badly. IanC, I stand corrected, I should have examined the data more closely before expressing an opinion where I know so little. -
TimTheToolMan at 15:06 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
@IanC : NOAA was quite specific about their understanding of ENSO and OHC. ""El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is intimately linked to alternating stages of oceanic heat content build-up and discharge in the equatorial Pacific (Wyrtki, 1985; Cane et al, 1986; Zebiak, 1989). " Hence if ENSO biases one way or the other in the future we can expect a related change in trend for OHC. -
IanC at 15:02 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Tim 101, The warm water volume plotted there is only limited to a narrow band along the equator, according to the discharge oscillator theory the warm water discharges out of the region, and it doesn't mean that the overall OHC will change. scaddenp 102, From fig 2, I can see that there is a dip around 1997-1998, but then around 2008 there is a dip too, but that is a la nina year. Also from 2002-2005 there is an El Nino, but the mean looks flat there. -
SoundOff at 14:55 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Dana, 50 more blogs, please. I've read them all and found many of them helpful in clarifying my climate understanding. -
adelady at 14:36 PM on 28 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
scaddenp, I hadn't thought of that. North Africa is a lot closer to Europe than any part of Europe ever was to Oz or USA. Make a choice. 1) Offer a few North African countries some set number of millions of dollars to host CSP (and storage) and export it to Europe. Use this power for everything including transport. 2) Spend unknown millions of dollars dealing with economic and climate refugees from Africa and within Europe at the same time as finding the cash for untold millions of adaptation costs for your own country. Keep on trying to spend at this rate while facing up to increasing costs of absolutely everything including power and transport fuels as well as relocating your own citizens and important facilities like sewage plants away from rising sea levels. Which option sounds better? What other options are available? -
Paul Magnus at 14:24 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Please support and pass on…. “Addressing Global Warming, I vow to eliminate all my non-essential flying. It’s a moral issue…” http://www.facebook.com/pages/ClimateFlightAction/165484890164497?v=info By signing up to reducing your non-essential flying you make a big impact on emissions reduction in multiple ways. >Your emissions are substantially reduce. >Your resolution highlights and focus the urgency of the issue and the sort of effort that will be required to address the problem with your peers. >Lead by example. We can not ask for climate action without making the first move. >You reenforce and provide suport to consolidate action in tackling global warming. -
Paul Magnus at 14:24 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Its a moral issue... http://moralground.com/mission/ >Yes, our lives must be an expression of what we most deeply value. >Yes, we can and must make conscience-driven choices about how we spend our money and time. >Yes, we must provide a safe and thriving future for our children. -
scaddenp at 14:22 PM on 28 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
I dont think Gilles believes that for a moment - he is specialist in debating tricks. But on off chance, the commonest adaptation is migration - any choice for salted deltas? How many million refugees is France taking? Is that preferable to changing energy source? -
scaddenp at 14:19 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
My point was not evidence that ENSO won't change. It was evidence that ENSO is not much of a player in total OHC. I argue against ENSO because its very hard to see physical reason for it to be able to do so. Paleo estimates show uncertainty about sensitivity, which is not the same as variability. However, it is extremely difficult to account for past climate with sensitivity as low as you are trying to claim. Your turn, where is your evidence for low sensitivity. There is plenty of evidence for a number about 3. See model reliability thread for "careful tuning of parameters". Try some evidence to support that accusation. Show me where a model parameter was tuned to fit overall climate instead of the empirical data on which it was based, but post it over there, not here. -
adelady at 14:14 PM on 28 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
Spontaneous? Choosing the desert? The Irish left their green and very unpleasant land because they had to. My Swedish sailor great-grandfather jumped ship here to avoid an arranged marriage. My Rum Corps ancestor was a soldier who chose to stay on in the lush sub-tropical environment north of Sydney. And then their children grew up used to this environment - although they wrecked most of it by applying farming techniques from Europe. And yes. I am "arguing that mankind would have much less difficulties to replace 80 % of its energy sources, than to face a few degrees more on the Earth?" If you've never tried living in never-ending heat above 35C that occasionally warms up to 41+ or more, you wouldn't be so sanguine about the whole of mankind being able to cope with "a few degrees more". Those few degrees represent a =lot= of intolerable degrees for those on the high side of the average. I might swelter here from time to time, but the earth's average ensures that a lot of people are simultaneously sheltering from freezing. Let's face it, if there are to be a "few degrees more" then insulation and building re-design will be required expenditures anyway. Why not spend the money first and possibly maintain the capacity to work or play outside in more congenial temperatures? Double win. You have a better life in more comfortable surroundings. If your local climate worsens, you've already got your protection in place. If avoiding CO2 emissions manages to keep your local climate more livable, you've got a better workplace and house than you would have had if the changes hadn't been made. What's the problem? -
TimTheToolMan at 14:07 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
You point to 5 years of Argo data as evidence that ENSO wont change in the future and become biased one way or the other? You point to paleo estimates that show considerable natural variability and somehow reason that ENSO or other ntural effects like clouds didn't play a part? You're right about the models though. I dont have any doubt in my mind whatsoever with regards their usefulness for modelling altered future climatic conditions given their reliance on carfully tuned parameters that work against today's conditions. -
cjshaker at 14:05 PM on 28 March 2011Temp record is unreliable
A friend pointed me at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/stationlocator.html I eventually got down to this web page: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/mpp/digitalfiles.html#DIG They want $2,200 for the complete data set from 1901 to current, or $500 for the summary of each day from the 1800s As taxpayers, we get to pay their salaries, pensions, health care, and then we have to pay again to access our public data? I just looked at the RealClimate.org webpage again, where you suggested, and am currently looking at the raw data section http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/#Climate_data_raw Chris Shaker -
scaddenp at 13:57 PM on 28 March 2011Temp record is unreliable
Your opinions about RC nor tamino are irrelevant. They usefully include pointers to where to download data from. That is what you want. Education about real science is not marketing. -
scaddenp at 13:55 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Umm, as to evidence that ENSO doesnt impact long term energy budget, then I would say total OHC from argo, from here, supported by sealevel rise. I also usefulness of models which I am sure you don't. Add in paleo estimates of climate sensitivity and I would say a very long way from "no evidence". -
TimTheToolMan at 13:51 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
" I'll believe that if there is no OHC model result in AR5. " They'll have to have it by then, its a vitally important measure of our CO2's effect in our climate and needs to be compared to the models. But apparently not so vital that it cant be "ignored" for 8 years... -
scaddenp at 13:46 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
"I will look at the data as it appears and make my assessment then. Would you be giving up your beliefs in AGW if there is no OHC increase over the next 10 years? " Obviously - and same for more many other predictions of climate models if they don't turn out either. You neglected to tell us about Gavin's response was to when OHC would be available and tried oblique accusation of hiding data instead. Hmm. I'll believe that if there is no OHC model result in AR5. IanC - Lyman 2010 0-700m total OHC certainly looks to have ENSO signal in it to me, though I would be first to admit that I know little enough about oceanography. -
TimTheToolMan at 13:36 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
"Given that ENSO is due to a redistribution of warm and cold water across the pacific, there is no reason I think to believe that the overall heat content will increase or decrease significantly." I guess you missed the post. There is every reason to believe ENSO decreases OHC http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/ -
actually thoughtful at 13:34 PM on 28 March 2011Dana's 50th: Why I Blog
Thank you for posts that examine the potential solutions, and the political situation that prevents the common sense answers from occurring. While the science is important, in 2011 we are no longer looking for evidence that AGW is happening - we are reeling from the first love tap from mother earth (summer of 2010, et al.). So how we move the politicians in various capitals from pandering to entrenched interest to working for the common good is the next essential step. For what it is worth - the case for early adopters and energy savings is HUGE - the early adopters, who act before the market signal is clear get government and other subsidies (in many cases). But they will reap the same financial reward as those who wait until the payback is less than 5 years, or whatever criteria makes energy efficiency/renewables viable in the free market. So if you have a dollar to spend, and wonder what the best investment is - right now it is in subsidized energy efficiency. Insulation, windows, more efficient appliances, more efficient transport (electric cars in particular), and it is in subsidized active systems - solar thermal (first), wind, PV - if you can get a 3rd party to share that cost now, your savings will be identical (actually higher because you have used the system longer) to the person who buys it after the subsidy ends. So the best use of a marginal investable dollar, in these extremely uncertain economic times, is obvious. For early adopters, the cost for converting to energy efficiency/renewable energy is not only small, but actually negative (as in you save more money than you spend). Break even (what this Blog has been jumping up and down about (aka grid parity)) means your 20 or 30 year costs are the same between paying the utility or throwing up wind/PV. Early adopters, especially for solar thermal, are in positive territory after 5-15 years (depends what fuel you are replacing). That is, between twice as well off or 6 times as well off (regarding energy) as the person who chooses to wait. -
IanC at 13:31 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Tim, Scaddenp, Given that ENSO is due to a redistribution of warm and cold water across the pacific, there is no reason I think to believe that the overall heat content will increase or decrease significantly. Furthermore, the main action occurs above the thermocline, which is about 100-200m or 10% of the 0-2000m layer. Since the thermocline anomaly is also restricted to the equatorial pacific, I will be surprised if you can see ENSO signal in the OHC. -
TimTheToolMan at 13:23 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
"Just to be clearer. I am postulating that ENSO is simple internal variability in the system and does not impact on long term energy budget, for which total OHC is a better indicator. " Just to be clearer, I'm pointing out that you have no evidence for this and our ability to predict climate into the future relies on it. -
TimTheToolMan at 13:21 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
"the OHC from argo does fit the expected response from modelling?" Expected response from modelling? It may surprise you that there is no expected response from modelling since 2003. I'm sure there is actually but I'm equally sure it will only be brought out by the likes of Gavin if OHC does increase again. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/01/2010-updates-to-model-data-comparisons/#more-6056 "The next figure is the comparison of the ocean heat content (OHC) changes in the models compared to the latest data from NODC. As before, I don’t have the post-2003 model output, but the comparison between the 3-monthly data (to the end of Sep) and annual data versus the model output is still useful." No it isn't Gavin. Not when actual figures from models can be determined but noone has seen fit to do so for the last 8 years or put another way, since the OHC stopped increasing ...very much not in line with the model outputs... "Okay, but you will be convinced if 10 years down the track, the OHC from argo does fit the expected response from modelling?" I will look at the data as it appears and make my assessment then. Would you be giving up your beliefs in AGW if there is no OHC increase over the next 10 years? -
scaddenp at 13:12 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Just to be clearer. I am postulating that ENSO is simple internal variability in the system and does not impact on long term energy budget, for which total OHC is a better indicator. -
scaddenp at 13:08 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Missed your post. I entirely agree about upper ocean OHC. ENSO has major role in heat cycling. But I am talking about total OHC as indicator of global energy budget and 0-2000 (best proxy for it) looks smooth to me. -
scaddenp at 13:05 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Okay, but you will be convinced if 10 years down the track, the OHC from argo does fit the expected response from modelling? Also, we have a few cycles of ENSO since argo - agreed it seems to have little influence on 0-2000 OHC? Which I would read as little influence on long term energy budget. -
TimTheToolMan at 12:54 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
"Given ENSO doesnt seem to show much on the 0-2000m OHC" Oh yeah, and I generally disagree with your assessment anyway. So does NOAA http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/ "El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is intimately linked to alternating stages of oceanic heat content build-up and discharge in the equatorial Pacific (Wyrtki, 1985; Cane et al, 1986; Zebiak, 1989). Jin (1997) elegantly described the relationships between heat content, sea surface temperature and zonal wind stress in his "Recharge Oscillator" theory of ENSO. Recent studies of oceanic and atmospheric variability have confirmed these relationships and elaborated on their implications for understanding the dynamics of the ENSO cycle (Meinen and McPhaden, 2000; Kessler, 2002; Trenberth et al, 2002). " -
Don Gisselbeck at 12:51 PM on 28 March 2011A Plan for 100% Energy from Wind, Water, and Solar by 2050
Wouldn't solar powered battery charging of vehicles already be cost competitive if we we paying for the Mid East wars (and most of our military) directly through gas taxes? We could do without most of our military if we didn't need to import oil. -
TimTheToolMan at 12:42 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
"Given ENSO doesnt seem to show much on the 0-2000m OHC," I'm not convinced we have a good enough handle on OHC yet. Since Argo there has been no ocean heating. Its pretty clear that the stitching together of the two datasets (XBT et al + Argo) has created an unrealistic jump in OHC that is attempting to be resolved even now. Its another one of these cases where ( -SNIP: accusation of fraud deleted- ) change was thought to be happening quickly and the more we measure it, the less it changes.Moderator Response: [DB] In deference to scaddenp, who has already replied to this, your comment was snipped instead of deleted. Future comments with similar accusations (and even insinuations) of fraud will be deleted; be advised. -
johnd at 12:35 PM on 28 March 2011Weather vs Climate
Alexandre at 11:22 AM, I haven't time to get into deep discussion right now, but regarding your PS, it hasn't bothered me because that is what the paper is generally about. Examining the uncertainties and limitations of our current far from complete understanding, and how those limitations has a substantial impact on the global climate predictability. Whilst is does produce some useful and interesting modeling, that is a useful byproduct rather than the objective of the study, but enough to support relevant points one might want to debate. One aspect I found particularly interesting is the noting of the JAMSTEC prediction system being superior in certain areas to many other existing systems, JAMSTEC being one tool that I have frequently referred to for a number of years now.
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