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garythompson at 13:58 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
I just read that Sagan paper that was referenced in your first paragraph. There was an interesting portion that I'll quote here: "Major variation in the CO2 abundance will have only minor greenhouse effects because the strongest bands are nearly saturated. A change in the present CO2 abundance by a factor of 2 will produce directly a 2C variation in surface temperature." Granted that Dr. Sagan wrote that in 1972 and there have been many improvements in our understanding of how CO2 affects the Enhanced GHE. In 1972 the CO2 atmospheric concentration as measured by Mauna Loa was 326 ppm and the CRU temp data shows we have gained 0.5C since 1972 while increasing our CO2 concentration by roughly 70ppm or 21% over the 326 ppm level. So we are about 1/5th of our way to doubling CO2 from 1972 levels and we are on track to match the prediction made in this paper that was written almost 40 years ago. -
2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
L.J. Ryan - "Earths blackbody temperature is 255K. This represents the theoretical maximum attainable temperature via the suns radiation." To be succinct - Bull - a completely unsupported statement. The surface of the Earth radiates at a temperature of 14C, or 287.15K, with an overall emissivity of 0.98. Upper layers of the troposphere (due to lapse rate) radiate at much higher altitudes, colder temperatures, rendering the planetary emissivity at ~0.612, regulating the amount of energy radiated at any temperature, and driving the surface temperature to the aforementioned 14C. Please - read some physics, get a clue. --- Folks, L.J.Ryan has shown either a complete lack of physics understanding, or a deliberate set of obfuscations. None of his objections has made sense. Damorbel is (in my opinion) a complete troll - he hasn't defended a single assertion, but keeps raising red herrings whenever pinned down, as he has done for over 4 months on this thread. He is now (as others have noted) circling back to previous disproved notions from several months ago, presented as fresh to people who have joined the thread. We are being trolled - do not feed the trolls. Moderators, John Cook - I'll join with previous posters; this cycle of denial and red herrings has gone on long enough. Are there any options in this regard? Perhaps deleting postings repeating junk from months ago? For some reason this particular thread attracts people who think that they either understand thermodynamics better than the previous 150 years of physicists, or perhaps feel that deliberate obfuscation and "common sense" arguments will draw out the discussion. 16 pages, >770 posts, with every skeptic argument repeated multiple times. Gah...Moderator Response:[DB] "We are being trolled - do not feed the trolls."
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garythompson at 13:33 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
Great post - As an amateur astronomer (and I stress amateur), I really enjoyed this post and look forward to reading the sagan paper referenced in the first paragraph. I've read only the high level articles explaining the HR diagram, main sequence and stellar evolution but I enjoyed a more detail look at the science. For those of you, like myself, who couldn't access that link due to the pay fire wall, here is another location. -
scaddenp at 13:31 PM on 23 March 2011It's the sun
John. Nope. Spectral signature in IR range is insignificant. We measure spectra at TOA and earth-bound and what we see is consistent with GHE, not your idea. "Our contribution to CO2 etc is nothing compared to that produced by vulcanism." This is false. See Volcanoes and global warming Global warming occurs for complex reasons ( and not that well understood by the so-called experts)and attributing it to man made pollution (alone) is nonsense. Care to support that assertion with some science? You might also like to look at Climate has changed before -
IanC at 13:15 PM on 23 March 2011CO2 has been higher in the past
Jay Cadbury (in response to your comment from Preventing Misinformation thread) Seeing that the current fauna is very different from what you would find all those years ago, I am not sure how comparing the projected temperature and CO2 to their respective values in a such a distant past relevant. What strikes me the most is the fact that even during the wild prolonged swings seen in the Volstok ice-core data, the warming was 10 degrees per 10,000 years, or maybe about 0.05 degrees per century (assuming arctic is warming twice the rate of the global average as it currently is); this pales in comparison to the projected warming (2 degrees per century even on the low end), which is a factor of 40 difference! Whereas in the past longer living mammals have 100s of generation to adapt, now it becomes two generations or so. How can this not be significant to the entire biosphere? While humans as a whole are adaptive, I think there are two caveats 1) Adaptability comes at a price. Most studies on the economic impacts of GW concludes that it is cheaper to cut back on GHG now rather than to adapt. 2) Adaptability depends on the wealth of the country. While people in developed countries are better at adapting (we can buy food from chile if crops from mexico fails), but what will an African family do when crops fail? What will a village in indonesia do when fish stock crashes? -
RW1 at 13:13 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
damorbel (RE: 755), "And why the 'GH' effect is not a radiation effect... from... GH gases." OK, then what is the primary mechanism for the greenhouse effect? "No amount of refocussing etc., etc., of photons from a cold (255K) source, like the upper troposphere, can produce a temperature higher than 255K... anywhere. It's the photons you see, they don't have enough energy. They may have all the power (W/m^2) you can imagine* but no amount of refocussing, adding together, accummulating in reflecting cavities etc., etc. will raise their energy. Or, in other words, increase the temperature of.... anything. That is what the 2nd law is all about." Not really. The second law primarily states that heat can only flow from warm to cold - not the other way around. The atmosphere is largely transparent to the energy coming in from the Sun. The bottom line is the rate the incoming energy can leave the system from the surface is slower than the rate it is coming into the surface. The effect in principle is not much different than the interior of a car heating up inside on cold day from sitting out in the Sun. The Sun's energy is mostly transparent through the windows. It's then absorbed and re-radiated by the interior car components. The rate at which the energy is entering the interior is faster than the rate the re-radiated energy can leave the interior; therefore, the interior has to heat up. Ultimately, when the rate of energy entering something is faster than rate it can leave, the something has to heat up. That's the GHE. -
johng8seq at 13:07 PM on 23 March 2011It's the sun
Going back to the original premisen that because solar radiation has reduced since 1960, the sun has nothing to do with global temperature rise - this agument is flawed. The reason being that according to Wein's Distribution Law for black body radiation, if the sun has cooled such that its total radiation has reduced, then the radiation peak will have also shifted towards the infra red. These means that the Earth is likely to receive more insolation because we know the Earth absorbs radiation in the infra red region than at higher frequencies ( shorter wavelengths )due to the greenhouse ( and other effects ). Hence the rise in global temperatures. Global warming occurs for complex reasons ( and not that well understood by the so-called experts)and attributing it to man made pollution (alone) is nonsense. It has occurred in the past and will occur again in the future. Our contribution to CO2 etc is nothing compared to that produced by vulcanism.
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scaddenp at 13:01 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Tedious indeed. If you got past the idea that the atmosphere is warming the planet and bothered to learn how the GHE effects, then you would get some progress. Remember nature is the atmosphere. Your version of physics doesnt account for the observed world. The textbook version does. Is that a hint? -
HumanityRules at 12:55 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
55 dana1981 OK I was just thinking about what really matters, I guess we have different priorities. 1) Too much wiggle room to for this to be accurate. 2) I agree with you 3) The basic physics only tells us so much and I think is largely uncontested. It's how this is mediated by the the complex, chaotic system that differentiates trivial AGW from catastrophic AGW. The basic physics doesn't give us climate sensitivity and that seems to be what ultimately matters. -
muoncounter at 12:52 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
LJ Ryan: "regardless of re-radiation and reflection, the atmosphere can NOT warm the warmer Earth...Period." So the world you live in has an average temperature of -18C? How's that working out? Or did you forget that the blackbody 'theoretical maximum' you cling to refers to an object in equilibrium? Do you suggest that is the case for the earth? If so, do you not recall that we have an atmosphere, which traps energy that would otherwise escape? Even died-in-the-wool deniers accept that much. It is tedious to hear these repetitious 'objections' to basic physics that should be well-understood by now. Read and learn, my friend. If nothing else, the quality of your questions will improve. -
HumanityRules at 12:36 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
56 IanC I guess Dana mentioning AMO in the same sentance as these papers was what I was getting at. I can't see where these papers deal with multidecadal cycles. -
Alex C at 12:35 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
Great post Chris, thanks for the explanation on the topic. I had tried doing some superficial Googling on why stars increase in luminosity as they age, and the best source I could find was wikipedia's page which was actually very unspecific toward this aspect of a star's lifetime. Of course, when I say superficial, I'm talking about the hair of my chinny-chin chin superficial. I also think that quantum tunneling is a fascinating concept. I had always thought that the high internal density of our star forced fusion. -
HumanityRules at 12:31 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
40 IanC There is this review which explains the background to different estimates of multi-centennial TSI variation (starting on page 11 if you don't want to read all 53 pages). It specifically states why the early Hoyt and Schatten estimates may simply be wrong based on false assumptions. It can't help with why the more recent estimates (1-2 W/M2 for MM to present) are different to the new Schrijver work, the review doesn't include the Schrijver work. The Schrijver explanation for the difference between the recent estimates and their work is described on page 4 of the PDF and is summarized in Fig3. I have to admit it get's too technical for me but the gist would seem to be thus. It would seem that TSI variation is affected by things that were visible (sunspots) and not visible (faculae??) to early observers. Modern scientist have to extrapolate back these non-visible features by modelling them. Without access to the conditions in 2008/2009 to constrain some of the parameters the use of SSN to estimate magnetic flux has introduced biases which are compounded the further one goes back in time. I think Schrijvers point is that the quiet conditions of 2008/2009 constrain some of the modelling parameters better and lead to lower estimates of TSI variation. But as I say this is all too technical for me so I could be wrong, I also have no way of judging the merit of the argument It seems highly disturbing that in your view the TSI variation can undergo maybe a ten-fold revision downward without having implications about our understanding of what drives climate. If that's the case it seems hardly worth deriving estimates in the first place, again this looks like far too much wiggle factor for this to be meaningful science. Maybe you can explain why ten-fold drops in TSI variation don't really matter? I know the line on this website is that if solar forcing is lowered then that just pushes up climate sensitivity. I see how that works with respect to the simple equation that describes the relationship between temperature change and forcing, but that's all. It's certainly not the only conclusion one could draw from that observation and can only be made by assuming a high degree of certainty about the science. The knock on effects of high climate sensitivity for other aspects of the science just seem to be ignored as well. -
muoncounter at 12:26 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
damorbel Your lecture over the distinction between watts and Joules explains nothing; if I shine a 100 watt light bulb on your lecture notes, each second requires 100 Joules of electrical energy. If that energy is constrained from leaving the immediate environment by whatever means, the environment, including your lecture, heats up. If I direct a 125 milliWatt laser pointer on the wick of a candle in the vicinity of those notes, I can quickly set them aflame. Those applications are radiation effects. Your gravitational heating was ably dismissed on a number of occasions; the most recent by Tom C. No one is buying this brand of soap today. -
Bern at 12:20 PM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
Ken Lambert: if you invested your hard-earned on the basis of my back-of-the-envelope calculations, then I've got a nice bridge I'd like to sell you... :-P My point wasn't to do a detailed cost-benefit analysis, but to throw out some numbers for consideration. Yes, those numbers likely to be wildly inaccurate, but even if I was out by a factor of three, then going solar thermal has a long-term break even point, compared to coal - while totally ignoring the climate change costs associated with continuing coal use (which *will* be measured in $trillions, and in the absolute worst case, could cost 100% of world GDP - i.e. complete breakdown of global economies) -
L.J. Ryan at 12:20 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Phil 754 "No-one believes the cold atmosphere warms the warmer earth. The Greenhouse effect slows the rate at which heat escapes from the earth. Period. " Earths blackbody temperature is 255K. This represents the theoretical maximum attainable temperature via the suns radiation. Kirchhoff's cavity experiment and subsequent law and Planks law were both derived by this pressies. So regardless of re-radiation and reflection, the atmosphere can NOT warm the warmer Earth...Period. Yet GHG proponents claim slowing the rate at which heat escapes the 255K earth some how warms the earth surface to 288K. So Phil, how does a body at 255K which is loosing heat increase it's temperature simply by slowing it's cooling....remember blackbody temperature is the theoretical maximum temp. -
IanC at 12:17 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
HR, Meehl et al suggests warming due to volcano is 0.2, which makes up a significant portion of the 'other' warming. Keep in mind that the error bar for the temperature is at least 0.1 of a degrees, the difference is not as big you suggest. Regarding ocean oscillations, ENSO seems to be resolved in both the papers. -
adelady at 12:14 PM on 23 March 2011CO2 has been higher in the past
"technology will save us"? Only if we choose, actively choose, to apply our skills appropriately. This article is just one example of approaches that some people are considering. A lot of this work, of course, is focused on how it might be applied for 'clean coal' technology. While we sit and wait for 'clean coal', there's no reason why we couldn't set up a few trial projects to quarry, mill and distribute by wind and water some of the minerals that would normally do the job on geological time scales. No matter how slow or inefficient some of those techniques are, all of them would be much, much faster than geological weathering. And when coral reefs start collapsing badly under acidification, scattering dust and gravel from such rocks into the rivers feeding into the waters around reefs might be the least worst thing we could do to hold back the speed of the damaging effects. I'm sure there will be other geo-engineering ideas (forget the sulphur) and some of them will have to be implemented when we spectacularly fail to deal with the carbon side of the geological equation. -
Bern at 12:02 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
Chris, thanks for the article. I enjoyed reading it - must be at least 20 years, maybe more, since I last read any detailed explanations of stellar evolution... -
alan_marshall at 12:01 PM on 23 March 2011The Libertarian Climate Conundrum
RSVP @ 47 Human beings are the only species with the capacity to destroy the Earth. We are also the only species with the capacity to save it, but only if we act as one. As a species, we therefore have a duty of stewardship. Dr Tim Flannery, author of “The Weather Makers”, is well known to those who follow climate science. In his latest book "Here on Earth", he has a vision of what is needed: The immediate challenge is fundamental - to manage our atmospheric and oceanic global commons - and the unavoidable cost of success in this is that nations must cede real authority, as they do whenever they agree to act in common to secure the welfare of all. This does not mean the creation of a world government, simply the enforcement of common rules, for the common good. Even if the current disorganised national efforts succeed in stabilising the concentration of CO2, it will not be enough. If we are to ever reduce atmospheric CO2 to a safe level, we need to extract the bulk of what has been emitted from 1750 up till now. That will require either carbon sequestration on an industrial scale, or geo-engineering. Both these solutions will involve decisions we make as a species, not as competing peoples. As Archbishop Desmond Tutu warned at Copenhagen, nations will "sink or swim together". That does not imply draconian control of our everyday lives. I am a believer in markets. For example, rather than ration gasoline, it is much better to price it in a way that gives people an incentive to use less, while providing compensation so that their overall standard of living is not reduced. Some of my thoughts on economic and political solutions are published at www.climatechangeanswers.org. -
JulianRGP at 11:55 AM on 23 March 2011Preventing Misinformation
I found the article really useful, so this comment is about just one point in the article The article describes the statement "CO2 is less than a mere four 100ths of 1% [of the atmosphere]" as an error (one of the "three principle errors" - "principal" by the way). The problem with Thompson's statement is not that it's erroneous (it's equivalent to saying 400ppm if my arithmetic is correct), but that it's being misleadingly used to support an erroneous case. The error is in the inference and the remaining two statements. I am happy with the following paragraph in this article - a small quantity can have a big effect - which shows why the statement in question is being misleadingly used. I think that simply saying it's an error leaves the article open to valid criticism. Of course the word "mere" in Thompson's statement is pejorative, but could be turned around to advantage. Although the quantity of CO2 is a "mere four 100ths of 1%" of the atmosphere, we already know that a mere three 100ths of 1% is enough to stop the earth turning into a snowball. -
scaddenp at 11:46 AM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
If cooling is impaired, then that limits output. No contradiction here. Efficiency losses on ramp-down arent that great. They do work much more efficiently at constant load agreed, but then you do need base-load. 80% for CCGT?? 60% is outstanding. Got a link for someone claiming 80%? I also dont believe a single cycle turbine has ever hit 60%. However, for all that defense, I think moving away from coal power is highly desirable. They are inefficient, coal is dirty industry, and we cant afford the climate cost. That is reason enough. No need to gild the argument with spurious other factors. -
Don Gisselbeck at 11:37 AM on 23 March 2011CO2 has been higher in the past
In what way does "technology will save us" (what "we are adaptable" means) differ from "God will save us"? Both are entirely faith based and neither has a shred of evidence to support it. -
Marcus at 11:33 AM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
scaddenp. During Summer, peak demand for power frequently increases, & this leads to load shedding-this is usually reported in the press as an inability for the base-load power stations to ramp up supply. "You get efficiency losses (effectively useful heat that isnt being converted) as station comes off load, but they can certainly come down (and up) fast." Yes, but the key point is the efficiency losses-this does limit its flexibility. Most renewable energy power stations can adjust their output *without* those same efficiency losses. Of course, coal power stations aren't very efficient to begin with-with only 35% of the heat from the coal being used to create steam. Personally, I think gas (be it natural gas or methane from decomposition of organic material) is much better-as even a conventional Gas Turbine gets 60% thermal efficiency-with a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine getting as much as 80%. -
adelady at 11:24 AM on 23 March 2011Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
Gilles@84. Huh? Perhaps you and I have a different definition of 'develop'. Why on earth would a poor country "develop =only= through an increase of FF consumption."? They now have options, much more developed options than we had at the same stage of development out of mainly rural communities. One of those options is to choose, really choose, to 'develop' at a rate that can be supported by renewables only. It might be slower than you or I might prefer, but it is still development. If they get it right, as their building standards upgrade, they'll be able to use solar roofing materials pre-coated, ready to plug in to business and domestic power supplies. Distributed power generation is a far better option for currently developing countries anyway for a whole heap of reasons. If the pace is slow and steady, when the accumulating wealth of the population allows a real move to individual cars for a larger middle class - there'll be a ready supply of EVs to meet that need too - and those people will be in a position to upgrade their re-charging facilities as well if they need to. There is nothing exciting or glamorous about the 19th century technology of digging stuff up to burn it to generate power. I can see no good reason why anyone would want it, apart from politicians addicted to ribbon-cutting events. Even then, I presume local mayors and the like could cook up some sort of ceremonial ritual when a few villages gather enough resources to establish a communal windfarm, if they wanted to. -
scaddenp at 11:18 AM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
Well, it feels very strange going into bat for Ken, but... "Also, if Coal Power stations are *so* flexible, then why do we get constant load shedding in Summer?" I'm not entirely sure what you mean, but station efficiency and generation capacity is dependent also their ability to reject heat to cool steam. This most certainly has a seasonal influence. " Why do the plants operate at close to 100% capacity 24/7, when off-peak demand is barely *half* of that during the day? They'd hardly waste the fuel, so I'd guess its because they *can't* turn down the power to match supply." I think you need to have some pretty complete figures on demand and production. Stations most certainly CAN turn down the power to match demand. You get efficiency losses (effectively useful heat that isnt being converted) as station comes off load, but they can certainly come down (and up) fast. I'm not that familiar with overall Australian generation system, but I would expect hydro to be used when possible, BIG coal to provide base load, and "others" to balance demand. Do I know anything about coal power stations? Well I am programme leader for this project and I've looked at a live data from quite a few Australian power stations. -
dana1981 at 11:08 AM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
HR -"Surely the point of the article is that you have some how accounted for the warming in this period. Is that the point?"
This post is a rebuttal to the "skeptic" myth that the pre-1940 warming was purely natural, and as large as the current warming, thus the current warming could also be natural. The article refuted all three of these points. 1) A significant portion (close to half) of the pre-1940 warming was anthropogenic. 2) The pre-1940 warming was smaller than the current warming. 3) We know the current warming is anthropogenic based on physics. Even if the first two "skeptic" points were true, it does not follow that the current warming is natural. -
Marcus at 11:07 AM on 23 March 2011The True Cost of Coal Power
"All the rest is totally unable to power a modern country, despite everything you can read." Yep, that's exactly what I'd expect you to say....don't believe the *facts*, says Gilles, only believe my unsubstantiated assertions. I've shown that many 1st World Countries are now producing *more* wealth with lower energy input than what they were 30 years ago (just read the IEA reports if you don't believe me), & that many of those same 1st World Countries are now sourcing more of that energy from renewable sources than 30 years ago-so that really does put the kibosh on your claims. As renewable energy technology continues to improve in price, reliability & total output, the more we'll be able to generate wealth *without* the need for fossil fuels-or nuclear power. Seriously, Gilles, I'm totally *done* with you on this matter. You clearly want to keep living in this fantasy land where nothing but fossil fuels can generate wealth-even when the facts don't support you-so I really don't see why I should continue wasting my breath! -
Marcus at 11:00 AM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
"It seems that I am 'horribly' wrong all over the park Marcus. It only that were true." Yes, you *are* horribly wrong Ken-& still are-but that's what happens when you rely on Coal Industry propaganda & not actual *facts*. Do you deny the press reports about 85% of Queensland's Coal mines being partially or completely flooded? Do you honestly believe that won't have-or hasn't already-had impact on supply? Also, if Coal Power stations are *so* flexible, then why do we get constant load shedding in Summer? Why do the plants operate at close to 100% capacity 24/7, when off-peak demand is barely *half* of that during the day? They'd hardly waste the fuel, so I'd guess its because they *can't* turn down the power to match supply. As to Transmission & Distribution losses, in spite of your claims this has everything to do with *distance*-the longer the distance between energy supply & energy demand, the greater the losses in electricity along the line. Distributed Generation is the only way to reduce-or eliminate-these losses, but inflexible coal power stations don't fit into a distributed generation framework very well. I've read far & wide on Wind-Farms, & your comments continue to display your ignorance regarding them. A 3MW Wind Turbine, operating at 30% Capacity Factor, will actually generate 8,000MW-h per year. Of course, without storage, some of the excess capacity-especially at night-will either go to waste or won't be harvested (i.e., excess capacity will get shut down). This is why VRB's have proven so successful at raising Wind Farm Capacity factors-to as high as 60% to 70%. Again, from my reading, current capacity factors are between 20% to 40%, with most modern Wind-farms achieving 30%-35% (without storage)-your ignorance of these facts doesn't make them any less real. Your talk of the negative health impacts of "Infrasound" merely prove that you spend way too much time reading The Australian for your information-a well known, anti-renewable newspaper. There is absolutely *no* medical basis for this so-called "disease", & its extremely odd that no one who actually has the wind farms *on* their properties (& are thus being *paid* for the use of their land) has actually been effected by Infransound-only those who live several kilometers away & object to the view. I wonder how they'd feel living near a coal power station & its associated, open-pit coal mine? Your claims about the distance taken up by a wind farm are equally facetious. Are you going to tell me that Coal Power stations, & their associated mines, don't take up land? Yet, unlike Coal Power stations, land with wind turbines on them are still able to be used for other purposes. Lastly, though your concern for endangered birds is....touching, its not a very good reason to oppose wind farms. Modern Wind Farms actually have very little negative impact on bird populations &-in fact-its been shown that the negative environmental impacts of the mining & burning of coal do *far* more damage to bird populations (per MW-h of electricity generated) than wind turbines. You know, what with all the land degradation & the harmful emissions from the power station-as well as the looming impacts of climate change. Seriously, Ken, I think you need to read a little more widely than the brochures handed out by WMC, BHP & Rio-Tinto. -
johnd at 10:54 AM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
Robert Way at 13:24 PM, I agree. The links provided in another post --"[DB] There is no robust evidence (AFAIK) showing that oceanic cycles affect the global land+sea temperatures, as Tamino thoroughly shows (here and here for starters)." were not very informative. The Tamino examination of the MEI only looked at 1975 onwards whilst the AMO examination went back to 1880. Firstly they should all address the same time frame, and secondly the matter cannot be properly understood or quantified by individual analysis of separate systems. The objective should be to examine the global response and so the systems from every ocean, every ocean, have to be examined in order for the nett response to be determined. It is very clear that all the systems oscillate differently, at times in concert, at other times offsetting and yet other times intensifying the effects of adjacent systems. The time spent in each phase varies as well as the magnitude, so trying to analyse just one system over less than one complete oscillation provides virtually nothing meaningful in a global sense. Has anyone produced a study that has tracked the nett total heat that is sunk or released to or from the oceans due to all such the cycles? -
scaddenp at 10:37 AM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
Firstly, I dont buy that we need to go to zero. We just have reduce one hell of a lot (but then I work in oil/coal so maybe that is rationalization). Hard to see how we drop coal for steel-making. Second, I was impressed by the range of fuel options for liquid fuels detailed by cudby in from smoke to mirrors for those applications that have to have them. Will they be as cheap as FF. Nope, but then who thinks climate change will be free? -
les at 10:34 AM on 23 March 2011Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
84 Gilled I know what an envelope is mathematically. That proves exactly and identically nothing about your statements except that they are mumbo-jumbo psudo science. You say the words but don't link them to reality. I really have no idea why you bother. It fools no one. For the attention, maybe? Anyway, at least we agree that you have completely failed to backup your points I had noted above. So there, really, is an end to it. -
scaddenp at 10:26 AM on 23 March 2011Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
"Obviously poor countries can develop only through an increase of FF consumption," Here we go again. Tell us what to read to back that assertion. -
scaddenp at 10:20 AM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Damorbel - still havent got a yes/no to #752. Are you prepared to have nature be the arbitrator? -
HumanityRules at 10:18 AM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
Dana, In your 'Other forcing' section you give two references neither of which actually deal with the role of ocean oscillations from what I can see (Meehl and Tett . -
HumanityRules at 10:13 AM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
27 dana1981 I still don't get it. Surely the point of the article is that you have some how accounted for the warming in this period. Is that the point? My objections are that you haven't, there are so many fudge factor and unquantified 'others' that you can make your sum add up to whateve you want. Why choose 66% for the unrealised warming, it could just as well be 33% over a 30 year period? Did you factor in equilibration for solar, I don't see that? You seem unconcerned that solar forcing may be 3X too high compared with recent estimates. You throw in fudge factors such as ocean cycles without stating magnitudes. Solar may be 0.1oC but let's fudge that up to 0.15oC with indirect effect which in other contexts you would probably dismiss as speculative. Does it matter that 0.15+0.15 does not equal the warming for this period (which maybe 0.4oC or 0.45oC)? Anybody can make numbers add up to whatever they choose to when there is so much wiggle factor. Here's my version Warming for 1910-1940 is 0.45oC (HADCRUT) CO2 contribution is 0.07 (33% of .22, equilibration) Solar contribution is 0.03 (1/3 of 1W/M2 based on newer TSI estimates) 'Other' forcing must be what's left 0.35oC Conclusion - Ocean oscillations and 'others' play the major role in climate. I don't necessarily agree with that conclusion but give yourself enough wiggle room and you can make any conclusion you want. -
Gilles at 10:06 AM on 23 March 2011Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
adelady, I don't know what you mean by "have to". Obviously poor countries can develop only through an increase of FF consumption, despite all what is written about all marvelous possibilities to make it without them. They probably don't read enough. Les - I checked that even in English, envelopes are not always packaging letters ;) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Envelope_(mathematics) -
pbjamm at 09:34 AM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
damorbel@761 "In this situation radiation through the intervention of GHGs is exchanged with the higher levels of the troposphere which are below freezing. Some of the xchange might well be with deep space, but only a small part; which of course cannot easily be separated out." Would you please expand on this using some science? I can not make sense of what you are trying to explain. -
johnkg at 09:21 AM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
#754. Thanks Phil Glad that everyone's agreed on that one! -
damorbel at 09:07 AM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #760 DSL you wrote:- "Ok, then put it in a clear vacuum box and point it at the night sky. With no internal heat source, and no way to receive energy (according to your physical model), it should cool down at its rate of emission (and internal conduction) until it reaches near absolute zero" There is a comparable effect known as 'clear sky' frost; the condition when surface frost appears e.g. on car windshields, even when the air teperature is not below freezing. In this situation radiation through the intervention of GHGs is exchanged with the higher levels of the troposphere which are below freezing. Some of the xchange might well be with deep space, but only a small part; which of course cannot easily be separated out. -
DSL at 08:53 AM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Ugh, LJ -- not the alleged solar cooker evidence. It is proof of nothing. The reflective surface focuses incoming radiation. That radiation could be coming from the atmosphere. Your argument is that we can't differentiate between radiative transfer and conduction/convective transfer. In other words, why doesn't the solar cooker cool to near absolute zero when pointed at the open night sky? Something must be heating it. (expected response) Ok, then put it in a clear vacuum box and point it at the night sky. With no internal heat source, and no way to receive energy (according to your physical model), it should cool down at its rate of emission (and internal conduction) until it reaches near absolute zero. I'll wager that it won't, though. I'll wager that it cools more slowly, because even if we warmed it up to 50C before we put it in the box it's still receiving infrared radiation from the atmosphere. Photons can't choose their paths. -
MarkR at 08:32 AM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
#4 perseus: feel free to check my maths (please?! :P ), I did it by dividing the luminosity by the speed of light, since power/c = force for light. Then turning into pressure by dividing by the area. I assumed the radiation would be absorbed, I suppose it could be reflected and you'd have to multiply it. Iirc, luminosity grows as approximately M^4 but it's a long time since I did astrophysics! In that case some massive stars (50 times solar mass, say) would have significant radiation pressure at some levels. -
dana1981 at 08:29 AM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
"at equilibrium, this CO2 change [from 1900 to 1940] would be expected to cause a 0.22°C increase in the average global surface air temperature."
Due to the ocean lag and other anthropogenic effects, "the best estimate of the anthropogenic contribution to the 1910-1940 warming is approximately 0.1 to 0.15°C". By 1960 it's 0.15 to 0.2°C, or roughly half of the 0.3°C average surface warming. I'd call 50% significant. -
les at 08:16 AM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
mods - I really do think that damorbel, and particularly 755 & 757 violates the comments policy. Although not exactly an ad hominem attack, it is an attack on the work of many, many physicists through the ages. On behalf of those upon who's shoulders most of us stand - bun on who's feet damorbel seems to be stepping, I pray you, make it stop! -
L.J. Ryan at 08:09 AM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
CBDunkerson750 You said: "In that both cause an area to be warmer due to redirected electromagnetic energy it isn't a matter of belief, but rather observed reality." Focusing a large radiative input to a specific point is NOT what proponents argue. Redirecting radiation is not a point of contention. I say cold atmosphere radiation can not shorten terrestrial radiation, GHG proponents say otherwise. Google solar cooker. The principal works by redirecting and focusing, from a large hot area, radiation to a small target area. When facing the sun (hot),the focal area (the small area) gets very hot. When facing away from the sun (the cold atmosphere) the focal area (small area) gets cold. So the small target area looses energy via the large area to the cold atmosphere. See this process (unlike the magic box) abides the 2nd law, Hot to Cold. The atmospheric LW does NOT accumulate within the target area. The target area looses energy to the radiating atmosphere. GHG physics concludes conversely. -
damorbel at 08:05 AM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #756 muoncounter That's exactly what #755 explains. In #750 CBD writes :- "In that both cause an area to be warmer due to redirected electromagnetic energy it isn't a matter of belief, but rather observed reality." No amount of redirecting, refocussing adding together etc.,etc., of photons can increase their energy: warmer the Earth's surface may well be but it is not a radiation effect*. *It is actually a gravity effect. -
Rob Honeycutt at 08:03 AM on 23 March 2011CO2 has been higher in the past
Jay Cadbury... (Continued from the Preventing Misinformation thread.) Models tell us very little about whether we can survive if we heat the planet back up to the levels of 65 mya. Models only tell us about the climate. Survival is going to have to do with the ability of species other than ourselves to adapt to such a dramatic and rapid change in climate. Paleoclimate records tell us far more about how species deal with rapid climate change. And there you don't find such pretty pictures of how well living things adapt to change. Yes, we are a very adaptable species. We are probably the most adaptable mammalian species there is, though probably less adaptable than many species of insects. So, is that the world you want to bequeath to your grandchildren and great-grandchildren? Us and the insects? Again, not a pretty picture. But don't worry. There's nothing we can do that nature won't fix in, say, another 20 million years. A mere blink of the eye, as they say. -
Chris Colose at 08:02 AM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
perseus, In our sun, gas pressure is much more important, but radiation pressure can become significant in much larger stars. -
Gilles at 08:01 AM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
I'm sorry dana but I don't understand. Figure 1 shows no statistical anthropogenic warming between 1900 and 1940, but you say that a significant percentage of that small warming is anthropogenic ? I can't get your point . Which percentage and why is it "significant" ? -
Rob Honeycutt at 07:55 AM on 23 March 2011Preventing Misinformation
Cadbury... I'm moving the conversation over to CO2 was higher in the past where you can read a response to your comment here.
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