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SME at 16:42 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
This is a call for more rigour in "case making": 1. The term "consensus science" is an oxymoron - at least if you do your science a la Popper. If you DON'T do your science a la Popper then by all means feel free to add whatever terms you wish to what you call "Science". "Real" Science ONLY deals with trying to know more by attempting to disprove what we think we already know. Holy huddles don't count. New advances in any discipline almost invariably come from outside the self congratulatory back slapping in-crowd. 2. It may well be that Dr Stemler does a good job in his broadcast of addressing the issues raised. I hope to listen but time does not yet allow. BUT the short piece above does a very poor job of making a good case, which is a shame - all material on such an important matter that is intended to sway the less or un convinced should be carefully thought out. Otherwise you are just preaching to the choir, or taunting the lions (as I am probably doing here :-).) 1. The paragraph above starting "First ..." is neutral with respect to the point being argued, and so essentially pointless. 2. The paragraph starting "nowadays" is questioned by vanishingly few of any persuasion and is not germane to making the desired point. 3. The paragraph starting "Second ..." is close to information free as the issue for a very large majority of all persuasions is not the well understood basic thermal behaviour of gases but the magnitude of the multiplying factors caused by feedbacks - "forcing" in the jargon of the day. There are other secondary factors which merit discussion, but if the pertinence of an argument to the above points is not made clear in a summary, then others than the choir may wonder if it's going to be worth listening to he podcast. Russell McMahon apptechnz@gmail.com -
L.J. Ryan at 16:23 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Philippe Chantreau "Most readers who are unfamiliar with the physics would only take away the impression that this is a matter of debate and their perception of the whole process might be totally confused. Obfuscation is not useful to anyone" Said otherwise: Quick kill the debate! Uncomfortable points of contention must not be seen! Back tomorrow, if this thread is still open.Moderator Response:[DB] Despite handwaving implications to the contrary, the existence and length of this thread is mute testimony to the tolerance of non-physical points of contention. On-topic comments constructed to comply with the Comments Policy go unmoderated, as the vast majority of readership here at Skeptical Science can attest.
You have yet to demonstrate the physical-ness of your position, as other participants have pointed out to you several times.
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johnd at 16:08 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
KR at 15:33 PM,re "I will note that some circulatory patterns, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), do appear to be settling into one state as a result of climate change." What causes you to arrive at that conclusion, particularly with regards to the IOD, but also generally for those other systems that apparently appear to be settling into one state? -
Vague at 16:03 PM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
I think that this as a fantastic idea and I am right behind it. I do however need one last bit of convincing that it is possible. A final tick of approval for the plan if you will. Where are you going to get the raw materials, more specifically the rare earths. For every MW of wind electricity generated you require 1 ton of Neodymium. 90% of this mineral is mined in China and due to its advanced renewable energy projects they are not sharing anymore. Australia mine no neodymium until the mines at Mt Weld and Nolans bore are up to speed. Even then they will not produce enough. The whole world produces about 28,000 tons of this element a year (hence the term rare earth I guess). We would need a significant portion of the worlds supply to achieve these targets and even then there is the not sharing anymore issue. That is just one element. Add to the list Lanthanum and Yttrium and a host of others used in solar and reflective glass and electricity storage. Should we be fighting against the Greens and fast tracking rare earth mining project? Will we have enough? -
MattJ at 15:50 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
To say Tyndale's "pioneering work eventually inspired physicists to develop the theory of quantum mechanics" sounds like quite the overstatement. His name is not even mentioned in any of the short works I have read on the history of QM. Other than that, this podcast looks quite good. -
IanC at 15:43 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
57+58HR, Thank you for the link, but the first link is to the Schrijver et al paper, not the review you mentioned. I have no problem with the downward revision of short term TSI variability because it is small to begin with. The variation in TSI through a 11 year cycle is about 1W/m^2 (at least we can say this with some certainty), which translates to about 0.1 degrees of change, so I think whether the difference from MM to current is 1w/m^2 or 0.1 w/m^2 is essentially immaterial in the grand scheme of things, simply because 1w/m^2 is small compared to the error bars, not only for the temperature record but compared to the uncertainties in the other forcing factors. Putting it in perspective, the projected increase in temperature is anywhere from 2 to 4 degrees over the next century. How significant will 0.1 degrees change due to the revision be? The sun plays an important role in our climate when the orbital changes causes 1% to 10% change in the TSI, if the 10 fold correction happens here then yes there is a need to rethink the whole picture. regarding the AMO. I don't see it mentioned anywhere in the paper. Then again the gap between the observed and forcing account for is about 0.1 or 0.2 ignoring solar. -
Steven Sullivan at 15:39 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
If rhjhames was following climate science literature closely at all, he'd already know about Anderegg et al., it made quite a splash last year. I'm a scientist (biologist) who follows climate matters and I read about it, and even downloaded and read it. If he wanted to get close to the original data he'd have done that too. So I question how closely he's actually following the literature, and I wonder what kind of scientist he is. -
Philippe Chantreau at 15:37 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
John and moderators, I agree. Despite DSL's point (valid to an extent), I can not see how allowing the same obfuscation again and again adds anything. Most readers who are unfamiliar with the physics would only take away the impression that this is a matter of debate and their perception of the whole process might be totally confused. Obfuscation is not useful to anyone. -
h pierce at 15:37 PM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
( - numerous rantings violating the Comments Policy en masse snipped- )Moderator Response: [DB] Posting on this site is a privilege, not a right. Future postings such as this one may have that privilege rescinded. Be advised. -
Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
Norman - That's quite a Gish Gallup; a collection of half-truths, falsehoods, and misrepresentations. Here's a repeat of what I posted on a 'skeptic' site in this regard: 1) Warming is said to be unprecedented and accelerating. It is neither. See It's not happening, Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic - We're warming pretty fast, driven by CO2, the changing levels of which are unprecedented. We're heading for a very high interglacial temperature the likes of which we haven't seen since the peak of the Holocene, if not higher. And warming is definitely accelerating. 2) Global warming is not GLOBAL. Uh, what!? Every record shows global warming. See It's not happening. This is utter bull - warming is faster in the Northern hemisphere, but it's global and it's happening. 3) Winters would grow increasingly warm. 4) The entire Northern Hemisphere would experience less snow and snowcover Globally, yes. Locally, in some regions, the relatively warmer Arctic is pushing the jet stream south, and some regions are seeing more peak snowfall. But winters are shorter, spring arrives earlier, fall stays later, and crops and flowers bloom earlier. Definitely happening. 5) Increasingly positive AO I'll let others speak to this - I hadn't heard that this was a consensus opinion. 6) Global warming may lead to a permanent or semi-permanent El Nino Again, I don't believe this was a consensus opinion. If not, both this and #5 are strawman arguments. I will note that some circulatory patterns, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), do appear to be settling into one state as a result of climate change. 7) Atmosphere will warm faster than surface (because that is where the heat trapping gases are). This appears to be a variant of the "Hot spot" argument. See There's no tropospheric hot spot. Observations match models and physical predictions, although old data (poorly calibrated) may have indicated otherwise before corrections. 8) Record highs and heat waves are increasing Record high temperatures versus record lows 9) Sea levels are rising at an increasing rate See: Sea level rise is exaggerated, Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated. The ARGO floats versus older XBT data are still rather contentious, as calibration of the XBT's is, well, poor. There is ongoing work here, but so far, the data doesn't contradict predictions or theory. 10) Droughts and floods will worsen in places like Australia So far, the data appears to support this. More is needed, and in the next 10-15 years I expect that the data will reach statistical significance. It may have already; I'll leave it to others in that regard. --- So, Norman, this link of yours is not supportable as criticism of AGW. You have obviously not used the 'Search' link on this site, or you would have seen multiple replies in that regard. Why did you post this link? -
Philippe Chantreau at 15:28 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
I note in the link provided by Norman that D'Aleo or whomever else concocts a graph of winter temps in some region over 9 years and makes it a "trend." In another one they look at temp at the 100 to 300 mb level and label that as "mid troposphere." That's really kinda funny considering that the 100 mb level is around 53 000 ft. Some mid level that is. I spent about 30 seconds on the site to pick up these 2 screamers. Sorry Norman, I'm not a scientist but I know when someone is trying to fool me. The red flags at D'Aleo's are all over the place, so many of them that one can hardly see any data. -
DSL at 15:23 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
But Daniel, the thread has been instructive. Pretty much every kind of wiggle imaginable has been attempted. If anyone who has any doubt about GHGs and the 2nd law after reading the entirety of this thread, they should get some sleep and try it again in the morning. Or perhaps try a more thorough explanation of a pretty simple physical interaction.Moderator Response:[DB] Anyone with the willpower to read the entirety of this thread has a cast-iron stomach and a thing for pain. Maybe that's why I'm a mod. :)
It should be painfully obvious by now that all that is being offered up are permutations of permutations (ad nauseum) of debunked and rebunked arguments.
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Bern at 15:22 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
rhjames @ 7: have a read of the article linked by the moderator in post #1. It answers your questions as to what was asked & by whom. -
Bern at 15:19 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
Further to Sphaerica's post, I'm an engineer (not yet retired, and hopefully not grumpy!). A mechanical engineer at that, so I have a fair bit of eduction in and understanding of heat transfer. I've been reading a *lot* of scientific papers & articles on climate change over the past five years or so. One thing I've noticed (which most of us on this site have noticed) is that the "it's not happening" arguments are remarkable, in the sense that there is no substantial, scientifically verifiable evidence for them. None at all. Contrast that with the view that it is happening, where you have literally gigabytes (probably terabytes, actually) of supporting data, and thousands of pages of scientific analysis that either directly confirms the human-caused global warming hypothesis, or does not contradict it in any way. That's not to say that we know everything about global warming - it's a rich field of research, with scientists learning something new every day. There are many areas of dispute as to exactly how the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases affects the planetary climate, and the nature & extent of the various feedback mechanisms. But the fundamental question as to whether CO2-driven global warming exists has long since been answered in the affirmative. Unfortunately for us, the more scientists learn, the worse it looks. :-( One last point: I have to say, I'm continually puzzled how anyone with university-level education in heat transfer can deny the existence of the greenhouse effect. But then I remind myself that some of my fellow students really struggled through, barely passing subjects on the back of rote learning with little real comprehension. That might explain some of it, perhaps. -
rhjames at 15:18 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
Sphaerica - I've been looking at climate change literature for the past 10 years. Where possible I get as close to original data as possible. I follow sea level, CO2 etc trends around the world. I don't take anything at face value, and I'm prepared to ask the hard questions. I've read much of the literature on this site. So, I don't just take the claims of this article at face value. I want to know the questions asked, the answers given, and who these scientists are. I've investigated this sort of detail before in surveys, with very disturbing findings. You mentioned retired engineers and physicists. Perhaps they are the ones who have time to go into detail, and make informed judgments, rather than follow the popular trend. My question remains - what were the exact questions asked of these scientists, and who were they? -
Daniel Bailey at 15:12 PM on 23 March 2011Arctic sea ice has recovered
The melt? Or the Plunge? -
DSL at 15:10 PM on 23 March 2011Arctic sea ice has recovered
I did - I didn't want to mention it. Too depressing. -
FatherTheo at 15:09 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
I believe the study Dr. Stemler is citing is Expert Credibility in Climate Change by William R. L. Anderegg et al. published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science found here: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract The scientists discussed in the study all self-identified in one way or other as accepting or rejecting the scientific consensus, for instance by signing petitions and so on.Moderator Response: [DB] Hot-linked URL. -
Bob Lacatena at 15:03 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
rhymes,I've seen no real evidence to support this hypothesis...
Then you haven't looked. Shame on you. This site is crawling with evidence (unless you simply refuse to see it).Computer models, yet to be substantiated by real data, are nothing more than interesting.
False. 100% false. First, the computer models are more than "interesting" and have real value. But beyond this, evidence from a very wide variety of observations supports both warming and an anthropogenic cause. Claiming that you are right because you yourself are ignorant of the facts is hardly an argument.I know of many scientists that are yet to be convinced that anthropogenic warming is any more than unsubstantiated theory.
Yes, but climate scientists? Or just people who are arrogant enough to think they're smart enough to be experts in any field of expertise, when they clearly are not? The world is crawling with retired physicists and engineers who will dispute global warming. I don't know why, but it's endemic. Every grumpy old man with a college degree and a career in the sciences (but not climate science) seems to want to angrily deny global warming. The fact that they do is hardly a weighty argument. Let me see, who should I trust? Thousands of climate scientists, actively working in the field, or a bunch of retired physicists and engineers who think they know better than everyone else, have little care for the future, and yet have repeatedly, over the course of the past decade, failed to substantively counter the data and logic which demonstrate the truth behind global warming? -
scaddenp at 14:58 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
D'aleo AND icecap. Really. Now, any point on that "challenge" not already debunked here? Why do you go such sources when you can easily see the content is rubbish? A real challenge to consensus science would be in the form of peer-reviewed publication. -
Bob Lacatena at 14:56 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
Norman, What is your challenge? The documents you provide are primarily just a litany of the same old, tired and false skeptic arguments, all of which are easily debunked in various parts of this site. There's little point to even looking at them. But more importantly, I couldn't find a single reference to refute the 97% consensus argument. What exactly is your point? That you are right, and your documents prove it, therefore 97% of climate scientists couldn't possibly agree with you? Personally, I think your post amounts to nothing more than off-topic trolling and should be deleted. -
rhjames at 14:51 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
I'd like to know the question that was asked of these scientists. I'm a scientist (not involved in climate), and if I'm asked if I believe humans influence the climate, my answer is yes. If I'm asked if the net result is warming or cooling, my answer is "I don't know". If I'm asked if I believe that human activity will cause catastrophic (or even significant)warming in the next 100 years, my answer is that I've seen no real evidence to support this hypothesis. Computer models, yet to be substantiated by real data, are nothing more than interesting. My point is that scientists are trained to be very exacting. The question has to be very specific. So show me the actual questions that were asked. I know of many scientists that are yet to be convinced that anthropogenic warming is any more than unsubstantiated theory. -
Norman at 14:41 PM on 23 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
Here is a challenge to the consensus argument. Plenty of graphs and data that show things may not be as certain as the 97% claim. Part One. Part Two.Moderator Response:[DB] To get a proper perspective, you should read this.
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2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Sorry to break this into multiple posts - it's late and I'm tired. L.J. Ryan - Incoming energy is set by spectral absorptivity, albedo, and the spectra of the sun in visible light. Greenhouse gases have little effect on that - the most important elements there are ozone absorption and Rayleigh scattering. Given a fixed input energy, the black body temperature represents a minimum temperature for the radiating gray body, the Earth. Any lowering of emissivity (such as increasing greenhouse gases) must be balanced by an increase in temperature above that of the black body case to match input power. -
dana1981 at 14:37 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
HR - I agree climate sensitivity is what matters. But that's not the issue here. -
2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
L.J. Ryan - From your reference: "That a perfectly absorptive ("black") body rises to a temperature a bit higher than an actual black body that’s free to radiate to its surroundings. A theoretical blackbody thereby defines the upper limit of temperature vs radiant absorption." And there is the error. The Earth is not a black body, but is a "gray body" with ~60% the emissive efficiency of a black body. And hence a higher temperature than a perfectly efficient black body radiator. Your reference is in quite serious error to argue against the greenhouse effect in these terms - it's a rather horrid miscasting of the situation. It's only an upper limit for a black body - anything with a lower emissivity will by necessity have a higher temperature for the same power output. I would not trust that source, given the example you presented. -
2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
L.J. Ryan - Blackbody temperature is important as a theoretic limit. However, the Earth in the real universe is not a blackbody. The Stefan-Boltzmann relationship holds for the Earth, and the power radiated to space (which must match power coming in for dynamic equilibrium) is determined by both the temperature and the emissivity of the planet. Any body that is not a blackbody (with an emissivity < 1.0) must have a higher temperature to radiate the same power as that blackbody. The blackbody is the theoretic best case; everything else is less efficient. With an effective (surface to space) emissivity of 0.612, including clouds, GHG's, tropospheric effects, lapse rates, etc., a surface temp of ~287 radiates ~239 W/m^2 to space, almost equal to the sunlight coming in. The difference of 0.9 W/m^2 is the forcing, heating the climate and moving back towards dynamic equilibrium. So - you are incorrect because the Earth is not a blackbody. It has a limited emissivity to space, and the resulting temperature needed to radiate 240 W/m^2 is around 14-15C. -
muoncounter at 14:22 PM on 23 March 2011Arctic sea ice has recovered
Anybody notice Arctic sea ice extent topping out for the winter season?
-- JAXA
Per their text file, the maximum extent was March 8. The Melt begins ...
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Philippe Chantreau at 14:16 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
"how does a body at 255K which is loosing heat increase it's temperature simply by slowing it's cooling....remember blackbody temperature is the theoretical maximum temp." Considering that the body in question is continuously receiving energy at a more or less constant rate, it does not seem so difficult to imagine that its temperature will increase if the rate at which it can radiate that energy is decreased. In fact, I would have a hard time to understand if it did not warm up under these conditions. -
Chris Colose at 14:16 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
garythompson, A good point, but I'd stress that CO2 is a big player in past climate, and there's no reason it cannot generate a large greenhouse effect. The key suggestion that the Sagan paper made was that Ammonia was a plausible greenhouse gas that could help rectify the faint sun problem, but it was later shown that this would be photochemically unstable in the atmosphere (e.g., Kuhn and Atreya, 1979). Although they were wrong, it is a great paper that paved way for an enormous amount of research...just how science should be. -
L.J. Ryan at 14:14 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
KR, John Cook, Tom Curtis Please explain why, seriously, why Kirchhoff's cavity experiment does not represent the theoretical BB maximum temp. I realize it doesn't explain the 33K delta but why is wrong? Maybe your superior physics can explain how BB maximums should be determined. Don't insult me or say I'm wrong without explanation of what is wrong. -
garythompson at 13:58 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
I just read that Sagan paper that was referenced in your first paragraph. There was an interesting portion that I'll quote here: "Major variation in the CO2 abundance will have only minor greenhouse effects because the strongest bands are nearly saturated. A change in the present CO2 abundance by a factor of 2 will produce directly a 2C variation in surface temperature." Granted that Dr. Sagan wrote that in 1972 and there have been many improvements in our understanding of how CO2 affects the Enhanced GHE. In 1972 the CO2 atmospheric concentration as measured by Mauna Loa was 326 ppm and the CRU temp data shows we have gained 0.5C since 1972 while increasing our CO2 concentration by roughly 70ppm or 21% over the 326 ppm level. So we are about 1/5th of our way to doubling CO2 from 1972 levels and we are on track to match the prediction made in this paper that was written almost 40 years ago. -
2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
L.J. Ryan - "Earths blackbody temperature is 255K. This represents the theoretical maximum attainable temperature via the suns radiation." To be succinct - Bull - a completely unsupported statement. The surface of the Earth radiates at a temperature of 14C, or 287.15K, with an overall emissivity of 0.98. Upper layers of the troposphere (due to lapse rate) radiate at much higher altitudes, colder temperatures, rendering the planetary emissivity at ~0.612, regulating the amount of energy radiated at any temperature, and driving the surface temperature to the aforementioned 14C. Please - read some physics, get a clue. --- Folks, L.J.Ryan has shown either a complete lack of physics understanding, or a deliberate set of obfuscations. None of his objections has made sense. Damorbel is (in my opinion) a complete troll - he hasn't defended a single assertion, but keeps raising red herrings whenever pinned down, as he has done for over 4 months on this thread. He is now (as others have noted) circling back to previous disproved notions from several months ago, presented as fresh to people who have joined the thread. We are being trolled - do not feed the trolls. Moderators, John Cook - I'll join with previous posters; this cycle of denial and red herrings has gone on long enough. Are there any options in this regard? Perhaps deleting postings repeating junk from months ago? For some reason this particular thread attracts people who think that they either understand thermodynamics better than the previous 150 years of physicists, or perhaps feel that deliberate obfuscation and "common sense" arguments will draw out the discussion. 16 pages, >770 posts, with every skeptic argument repeated multiple times. Gah...Moderator Response:[DB] "We are being trolled - do not feed the trolls."
I will join you out on that limb. Short of a comment directly violating the Comments Policy, what we can do is this: Merely repeating a previously expressed position without adding anything new is indeed grounds for moderation. So if anyone notices a comment being lifted from a previous one without anything new being added, bring it to the Moderator's attention.
700+ posts is a lot; the Mods are human & can't be expected to remember each and every post. So help each other out:
- DNFTT (no matter how much you want to, Do Not Engage)
- Be on the watch for recycled comments by those obviously clogging up the threads
- Let the Mods know when you see those recycled comments
Trolls live for attention & generating controversy; deny them the pleasure. Those that abuse the priviledge of participating in this community may lose that priviledge.
Thanks for your time.
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garythompson at 13:33 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
Great post - As an amateur astronomer (and I stress amateur), I really enjoyed this post and look forward to reading the sagan paper referenced in the first paragraph. I've read only the high level articles explaining the HR diagram, main sequence and stellar evolution but I enjoyed a more detail look at the science. For those of you, like myself, who couldn't access that link due to the pay fire wall, here is another location. -
scaddenp at 13:31 PM on 23 March 2011It's the sun
John. Nope. Spectral signature in IR range is insignificant. We measure spectra at TOA and earth-bound and what we see is consistent with GHE, not your idea. "Our contribution to CO2 etc is nothing compared to that produced by vulcanism." This is false. See Volcanoes and global warming Global warming occurs for complex reasons ( and not that well understood by the so-called experts)and attributing it to man made pollution (alone) is nonsense. Care to support that assertion with some science? You might also like to look at Climate has changed before -
IanC at 13:15 PM on 23 March 2011CO2 has been higher in the past
Jay Cadbury (in response to your comment from Preventing Misinformation thread) Seeing that the current fauna is very different from what you would find all those years ago, I am not sure how comparing the projected temperature and CO2 to their respective values in a such a distant past relevant. What strikes me the most is the fact that even during the wild prolonged swings seen in the Volstok ice-core data, the warming was 10 degrees per 10,000 years, or maybe about 0.05 degrees per century (assuming arctic is warming twice the rate of the global average as it currently is); this pales in comparison to the projected warming (2 degrees per century even on the low end), which is a factor of 40 difference! Whereas in the past longer living mammals have 100s of generation to adapt, now it becomes two generations or so. How can this not be significant to the entire biosphere? While humans as a whole are adaptive, I think there are two caveats 1) Adaptability comes at a price. Most studies on the economic impacts of GW concludes that it is cheaper to cut back on GHG now rather than to adapt. 2) Adaptability depends on the wealth of the country. While people in developed countries are better at adapting (we can buy food from chile if crops from mexico fails), but what will an African family do when crops fail? What will a village in indonesia do when fish stock crashes? -
RW1 at 13:13 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
damorbel (RE: 755), "And why the 'GH' effect is not a radiation effect... from... GH gases." OK, then what is the primary mechanism for the greenhouse effect? "No amount of refocussing etc., etc., of photons from a cold (255K) source, like the upper troposphere, can produce a temperature higher than 255K... anywhere. It's the photons you see, they don't have enough energy. They may have all the power (W/m^2) you can imagine* but no amount of refocussing, adding together, accummulating in reflecting cavities etc., etc. will raise their energy. Or, in other words, increase the temperature of.... anything. That is what the 2nd law is all about." Not really. The second law primarily states that heat can only flow from warm to cold - not the other way around. The atmosphere is largely transparent to the energy coming in from the Sun. The bottom line is the rate the incoming energy can leave the system from the surface is slower than the rate it is coming into the surface. The effect in principle is not much different than the interior of a car heating up inside on cold day from sitting out in the Sun. The Sun's energy is mostly transparent through the windows. It's then absorbed and re-radiated by the interior car components. The rate at which the energy is entering the interior is faster than the rate the re-radiated energy can leave the interior; therefore, the interior has to heat up. Ultimately, when the rate of energy entering something is faster than rate it can leave, the something has to heat up. That's the GHE. -
johng8seq at 13:07 PM on 23 March 2011It's the sun
Going back to the original premisen that because solar radiation has reduced since 1960, the sun has nothing to do with global temperature rise - this agument is flawed. The reason being that according to Wein's Distribution Law for black body radiation, if the sun has cooled such that its total radiation has reduced, then the radiation peak will have also shifted towards the infra red. These means that the Earth is likely to receive more insolation because we know the Earth absorbs radiation in the infra red region than at higher frequencies ( shorter wavelengths )due to the greenhouse ( and other effects ). Hence the rise in global temperatures. Global warming occurs for complex reasons ( and not that well understood by the so-called experts)and attributing it to man made pollution (alone) is nonsense. It has occurred in the past and will occur again in the future. Our contribution to CO2 etc is nothing compared to that produced by vulcanism.
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scaddenp at 13:01 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Tedious indeed. If you got past the idea that the atmosphere is warming the planet and bothered to learn how the GHE effects, then you would get some progress. Remember nature is the atmosphere. Your version of physics doesnt account for the observed world. The textbook version does. Is that a hint? -
HumanityRules at 12:55 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
55 dana1981 OK I was just thinking about what really matters, I guess we have different priorities. 1) Too much wiggle room to for this to be accurate. 2) I agree with you 3) The basic physics only tells us so much and I think is largely uncontested. It's how this is mediated by the the complex, chaotic system that differentiates trivial AGW from catastrophic AGW. The basic physics doesn't give us climate sensitivity and that seems to be what ultimately matters. -
muoncounter at 12:52 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
LJ Ryan: "regardless of re-radiation and reflection, the atmosphere can NOT warm the warmer Earth...Period." So the world you live in has an average temperature of -18C? How's that working out? Or did you forget that the blackbody 'theoretical maximum' you cling to refers to an object in equilibrium? Do you suggest that is the case for the earth? If so, do you not recall that we have an atmosphere, which traps energy that would otherwise escape? Even died-in-the-wool deniers accept that much. It is tedious to hear these repetitious 'objections' to basic physics that should be well-understood by now. Read and learn, my friend. If nothing else, the quality of your questions will improve. -
HumanityRules at 12:36 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
56 IanC I guess Dana mentioning AMO in the same sentance as these papers was what I was getting at. I can't see where these papers deal with multidecadal cycles. -
Alex C at 12:35 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
Great post Chris, thanks for the explanation on the topic. I had tried doing some superficial Googling on why stars increase in luminosity as they age, and the best source I could find was wikipedia's page which was actually very unspecific toward this aspect of a star's lifetime. Of course, when I say superficial, I'm talking about the hair of my chinny-chin chin superficial. I also think that quantum tunneling is a fascinating concept. I had always thought that the high internal density of our star forced fusion. -
HumanityRules at 12:31 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
40 IanC There is this review which explains the background to different estimates of multi-centennial TSI variation (starting on page 11 if you don't want to read all 53 pages). It specifically states why the early Hoyt and Schatten estimates may simply be wrong based on false assumptions. It can't help with why the more recent estimates (1-2 W/M2 for MM to present) are different to the new Schrijver work, the review doesn't include the Schrijver work. The Schrijver explanation for the difference between the recent estimates and their work is described on page 4 of the PDF and is summarized in Fig3. I have to admit it get's too technical for me but the gist would seem to be thus. It would seem that TSI variation is affected by things that were visible (sunspots) and not visible (faculae??) to early observers. Modern scientist have to extrapolate back these non-visible features by modelling them. Without access to the conditions in 2008/2009 to constrain some of the parameters the use of SSN to estimate magnetic flux has introduced biases which are compounded the further one goes back in time. I think Schrijvers point is that the quiet conditions of 2008/2009 constrain some of the modelling parameters better and lead to lower estimates of TSI variation. But as I say this is all too technical for me so I could be wrong, I also have no way of judging the merit of the argument It seems highly disturbing that in your view the TSI variation can undergo maybe a ten-fold revision downward without having implications about our understanding of what drives climate. If that's the case it seems hardly worth deriving estimates in the first place, again this looks like far too much wiggle factor for this to be meaningful science. Maybe you can explain why ten-fold drops in TSI variation don't really matter? I know the line on this website is that if solar forcing is lowered then that just pushes up climate sensitivity. I see how that works with respect to the simple equation that describes the relationship between temperature change and forcing, but that's all. It's certainly not the only conclusion one could draw from that observation and can only be made by assuming a high degree of certainty about the science. The knock on effects of high climate sensitivity for other aspects of the science just seem to be ignored as well. -
muoncounter at 12:26 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
damorbel Your lecture over the distinction between watts and Joules explains nothing; if I shine a 100 watt light bulb on your lecture notes, each second requires 100 Joules of electrical energy. If that energy is constrained from leaving the immediate environment by whatever means, the environment, including your lecture, heats up. If I direct a 125 milliWatt laser pointer on the wick of a candle in the vicinity of those notes, I can quickly set them aflame. Those applications are radiation effects. Your gravitational heating was ably dismissed on a number of occasions; the most recent by Tom C. No one is buying this brand of soap today. -
Bern at 12:20 PM on 23 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
Ken Lambert: if you invested your hard-earned on the basis of my back-of-the-envelope calculations, then I've got a nice bridge I'd like to sell you... :-P My point wasn't to do a detailed cost-benefit analysis, but to throw out some numbers for consideration. Yes, those numbers likely to be wildly inaccurate, but even if I was out by a factor of three, then going solar thermal has a long-term break even point, compared to coal - while totally ignoring the climate change costs associated with continuing coal use (which *will* be measured in $trillions, and in the absolute worst case, could cost 100% of world GDP - i.e. complete breakdown of global economies) -
L.J. Ryan at 12:20 PM on 23 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Phil 754 "No-one believes the cold atmosphere warms the warmer earth. The Greenhouse effect slows the rate at which heat escapes from the earth. Period. " Earths blackbody temperature is 255K. This represents the theoretical maximum attainable temperature via the suns radiation. Kirchhoff's cavity experiment and subsequent law and Planks law were both derived by this pressies. So regardless of re-radiation and reflection, the atmosphere can NOT warm the warmer Earth...Period. Yet GHG proponents claim slowing the rate at which heat escapes the 255K earth some how warms the earth surface to 288K. So Phil, how does a body at 255K which is loosing heat increase it's temperature simply by slowing it's cooling....remember blackbody temperature is the theoretical maximum temp. -
IanC at 12:17 PM on 23 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
HR, Meehl et al suggests warming due to volcano is 0.2, which makes up a significant portion of the 'other' warming. Keep in mind that the error bar for the temperature is at least 0.1 of a degrees, the difference is not as big you suggest. Regarding ocean oscillations, ENSO seems to be resolved in both the papers. -
adelady at 12:14 PM on 23 March 2011CO2 has been higher in the past
"technology will save us"? Only if we choose, actively choose, to apply our skills appropriately. This article is just one example of approaches that some people are considering. A lot of this work, of course, is focused on how it might be applied for 'clean coal' technology. While we sit and wait for 'clean coal', there's no reason why we couldn't set up a few trial projects to quarry, mill and distribute by wind and water some of the minerals that would normally do the job on geological time scales. No matter how slow or inefficient some of those techniques are, all of them would be much, much faster than geological weathering. And when coral reefs start collapsing badly under acidification, scattering dust and gravel from such rocks into the rivers feeding into the waters around reefs might be the least worst thing we could do to hold back the speed of the damaging effects. I'm sure there will be other geo-engineering ideas (forget the sulphur) and some of them will have to be implemented when we spectacularly fail to deal with the carbon side of the geological equation. -
Bern at 12:02 PM on 23 March 2011Understanding Solar Evolution Pt. 1
Chris, thanks for the article. I enjoyed reading it - must be at least 20 years, maybe more, since I last read any detailed explanations of stellar evolution...
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