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Comments 92351 to 92400:

92351. piloot at 09:29 AM on 18 March 2011
       Sea level rise: coming to a place near you
       The situation for the Netherlands doesn't seem fair or realistic in this comparison. Half of the country is already below sea level and man-made that way, surrounded by dikes and (wind)mills, completed with an enormous irrigation network to constantly pump the water out and to protect it against storms from the North Sea or floodings from meltwater out of the Rhine. If the map would have a setting for nil change, it would still show half the country flooded (like the less than 1 meter change now), which just isn't the case (I'm typing this from 4 meter below sea level as we speak and I'm still dry). A storm (usually combined with moon setting) in 2006 caused an almost 5 meter sea level rise above the average level in Holland, but the dikes still held (in contrast to 1953 which killed 1863 people, causing a huge delta plan with new dikes and barriers to prevent that form ever happening). The whole system is constantly maintained, monitored, fortified and updated, in contrast to poor countries with low lying areas. I'm not saying sea level rise won't be a problem, but for Holland the consequences won't be like portrayed in the map.
92352. scaddenp at 09:25 AM on 18 March 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       Tom, I really like this. Same idea as Science of Doom example but much simpler.
92353. Rob Painting at 09:24 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maize harvest to shrink under Global Warming
       John D - Whilst we don't know how many different varieties were trialled or how each performed. The idea that the trials would incorporate any old rubbish maize is nonsense. Simple invention on your part. And quite frankly odd, why would an organization carrying out such trials, use varieties that were ill-suited to the prevailing conditions?. The CYMMT was set up in the 1970's, they've been breeding for maize drought tolerance ever since. Selective breeding is an ongoing process. I expect the private seed companies to have agricultural expertise too. Charlie A - planting and harvesting times are not optional. These are determined by local conditions.
92354. rhjames at 09:19 AM on 18 March 2011
       Sea level rise: coming to a place near you
       This is all very interesting, but I have a problem with justifying the comment "currently we're on track to reach 1m." As I live in Sydney, and Sydney is mentioned, I checked the Fort Denison data, which shows no sea level rise over the past few years, and about 8mm over the past 25 years. 1998 was the hottest year over the past 160 years, and this year so far has seen a temperature drop. Now, I may well accept that sea levels will rise, but I can't say we're "on track" to reach 1m increase by 2090. We need to see some temperature increase, and/or sea level increase.
92355. johnd at 08:59 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maize harvest to shrink under Global Warming
       michael sweet at 06:08 AM, the most disappointing form of hand waving is that when the only knowledge that can be offered to a discussion is "it's been peer reviewed". That carries the implication that the peer review process is perfect, and that each peer reviewed paper encapsulates all the knowledge there is to know on the subject. If you carefully read back through this thread, you will find that most of the comments questioning the paper are not on the integrity of the study process, but rather whether the findings provide anything new or are even relevant to the real world. Even if you have little appreciation of how or why field trials such as those that provided the base data for the study are conducted, you surely must appreciate the fact that not all new varieties being trialled perform up to expectations. The difference between what this study did by including the results of all the varieties trialled, and what the plant breeders would have done, is that the plant breeders would have selected the results from those varieties that met or exceeded their expectations and having done so, worked to refine or further develop the desired traits before releasing them for commercial use. You can be fairly certain that when such new varieties are being released and promoted, that it will be the data for each specific variety that will be used to illustrate how each variety will perform under different conditions,and certainly not what this study projects. It is largely irrelevant to the real world and provides virtually nothing new to those whose purpose is to actually produce the food required. Given the rate at which new varieties are produced, the study is likely many steps back from where plant breeders would currently be, certainly well off the pace. The one point I do question about how the study was conducted is about why they used rainfall data other than what normally would be collected at the immediate trial site. It will be unknown if any bias is present unless rainfall had been measured at the trial site, in which case, that is the data that should have been used. If you can provide some insight as to whether my concerns are valid or not, then I would certainly be interested to listen. The use of rainfall data collected at other than the immediate trial sites has on occasion been sufficient reason for the findings of such trials to fail passing the peer review process here in Australia.
92356. Phil at 08:11 AM on 18 March 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       L.J.Ryan C will equal D. This scenario is very similar to the spreadsheet I posted here. You can model Tom's box using a 5 column spreadsheet thus; In row 1 type A, blank, B, C, D (to represent the quantities on Tom's diagram) In row 3 type 100, 0, =A3+B3, =C3*0.5, =C3*0.5 In row 4 type 100, =D3, =A4+B4, =C4*0.5, =C4*0.5 Copy row 4 into the next 30 lines of the table. You will find equilibrium reached after about 17 iterations and that Tom's calculations match in every detail. To check the conservation of energy you must let the accumulated energy in the box dissipate. To do this copy row 30 into 31 and set cell A31 to 0. Copy row 31 to the next 15 or so cells. If you sum column A and D (don't forget, column D represents Tom's arrow C) you will find they are equal.
92357. Kiwiiano at 08:04 AM on 18 March 2011
       Sea level rise: coming to a place near you
       Oi! You've listed Christchurch in NZ as liable for flooding with a rise in sea level. Don't forget a good chunk of Auckland, Tauranga, Napier, Wellington, Nelson, Greymouth, Dunedin and Invercargill. About the only main center that will escape it will be Hamilton. And Lawrence.
       Moderator Response: [DB] Christchurch was chosen as it had recently been in the news due to the earthquake there. All coastal cities in NZ (as you note) and throughout the world will have to deal with sea level rise at some point.
92358. shoyemore at 08:00 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maximum and minimum monthly records in global temperature databases
       Charlie A #49, You seem to want to discuss matters which you would be better to raise elsewhere, such as Early Century Warming Your points about this post are answered adequately in #46. If you re-read the post carefully, you will find it also deals with these matters, such as in the paragraph after Figure 1.
92359. funglestrumpet at 07:42 AM on 18 March 2011
       Sea level rise: coming to a place near you
       Articles like this could be separated into a general information on Climate Change section that the general public would, if directed there, go to in preference to a lot of the other articles on this site, which are often esoteric in nature and beyond a lot of us, me included. This article would do wonders for public involvement in the issue if they were to become worried that the value of their property was going to suffer. Let's face it, property prices are going to tumble long before the waves are licking at the front door. To paraphrase the wise man quote abov: The Tides, They Are A Changin'.
92360. Chris G at 07:27 AM on 18 March 2011
       Examining the impacts of ocean acidification
       CB, Regarding use of the term dying, IDK, but the P/T extinction event is often referred to as The Great Dying, and no one takes it to mean the planet became totally dead. No matter. Otherwise, yeah. Someone asked me if I thought climate change would lead to man becoming extinct. My reply was something to the effect that we are like cockroaches; it is very difficult to kill all of us. But, there may not be nearly as many of us afterward.
92361. Charlie A at 07:13 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maximum and minimum monthly records in global temperature databases
       A minor note ... in the "Further Reading" you should add a hyphen to int-res in the 1st URL. 1. "Random incidence is a hypothesis, not an assumption...... certainly rejected by the data." Agreed. Of course, one can simply look at the global temperature times series and come to this same qualitative conclusion in a much easier manner. 2. "...... Hence the excursions shown on the charts must be concluded to be due to extrinsic factors". This is where you start to lose me. A lot depends upon your definition of extrinsic factors. Are you saying that your charts show, that over the timeframe you plotted, that natural variation has been excluded as a reasonable hypothesis? 3. "A second (composite) hypothesis that temperatures changes up to mid-century are due to naturally occurring factors, and changes thereafter are due to human-induced factors, is also not rejected by these data." Agreed. But that an equally valid statement is "A second hypothesis that temperature up to mid-1900 are due to human induced factors and changes thereafter are due to naturally occurring factors are not rejected by these data". In other words, your data can be said to not reject ANY hypothesis relating to attribution. To put it rather crudely, I have a hypothesis that the temperature variations are due to the number of visitors to Niagra Falls. As you put it "There is nothing explicit in the chart to upset that view." While that hypothesis is rather outlandish, hopefully it shows the logical fallacy of claiming that the data and the analysis in any way supports your second (composite) hypothesis that "that temperatures changes up to mid-century are due to naturally occurring factors, and changes thereafter are due to human-induced factors". Yes, your data is consistent with your hypotheses. But your data is also consistent with the hypothesis that global temperatures are influenced by the annual visitor count at Niagra Falls. For both the Niagra Falls hypothesis and for you second hypothesis, additional data and analysis is required.
92362. scaddenp at 07:08 AM on 18 March 2011
       CO2 lags temperature
       Also, if you think paleoclimate is more or less unconstrained, invent anything, have a look at Zeebe et al 2009 on difficulties with PETM. (Doesnt begin to address the cause of carbon release but deals with other issues). Needless to say my colleagues think they have a possible solution to the conundrum posed...
92363. les at 06:48 AM on 18 March 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       622 Ryan.. Yes, and I'm pointing out that, really - they are (all) integrals. That may be a problem of notation rather then violation of a fundamental physical property.
92364. Rob Honeycutt at 06:39 AM on 18 March 2011
       Skeptical Science nominated for Climate Change Communicator of the Year
       Philippe... I would define "athleticism" on WUWT as "working hard to put on a good show." They definitely slog through the science to find (and often distort) bits and pieces to fit their agenda. They work very hard at it.
92365. Tshane3000 at 06:36 AM on 18 March 2011
       One of the best climate change ads I've seen
       Right on Sphaerica. @ClimateWatcher, Science is rarely ever an easy sell--unless, and this is only maybe--when it's about cute, fuzzy koala bears going extinct. That's because science is nuanced and complicated--and scientists aren't marketing experts. Marketing nuance is tough! Also, there is no dumbed-down echo chamber in science, as there is among (pardon me, but both these labels are true:) corrupt or ignorant conservatives who want business as usual only because it's in their interest (at least, financially--certainly not ecologically, as their planet and descendants are at risk). Myths and lies and disinformation--climate change denial--keep spinning round and round in the media because most people just *won't* do the hard work of ferreting out truth. But finding truth is what science does so well--and it's not as easy as mere sloganeering and speaking in sound bytes. Truth is the realm of science. Profit is the realm of greed, power and survival. Both are possible in a sustainable world, but sustainability balances profit with people and planet. Sustainable development must be managed by those who see the world with a far wider, more compassionate and future-oriented lens than those bouncing in the echo chamber, and digging like piggies after easy money in greasy dirt. One of the great things about the scientific method is that it welcomes legitimate, well-reasoned challenges. That is built into the system, so it continually evolves to better and better understand both the "why" and "how" of nature. True science is an ever self-perfecting truth machine that keeps on giving to the human race--far more than any organization, religion or other human-created system, physical, mental, philosophical or other. It crosses and merges and encompasses all those realms, and more. If conservatives want to challenge the science, go get climate science degrees and do it! It just hasn't happened. Conservatives who have science degrees by and large make too many mistakes in their work to be considered legitimate. It seems clear that their political beliefs mostly drive their science, whereas legitimate science must always drive politics when appropriate--as it is when a threat hangs over humanity as large as climate change. Why don't conservatives get climate science degrees? It's too much work, compared to just dumping your money in oil stocks and sit back sipping tequila on a beach! Greed is a far easier sell than altruism. Hence the $ billions Big Oil makes, and the pennies the environmental movement garners. These lies about huge profits to be made in green energy are just silly--unless you also want to work twice as hard as anyone else to make the profits. If we didn't have to, nobody would do it. Oil and coal are going, "sure things." (Which is why the industry is fighting so hard to keep it up. But even they admit global warming is happening! They just don't fully want to blame themselves and give up the cash cow so easily.) By contrast, developing green energy worldwide is the hardest work the population of Earth may ever do. The canaries in the coalmine (literally) are singing--and people are dying because of it--every day, more than in most industries. (Yet another reason to get rid of dirty, polluting coal.) Best get to the good, green work ASAP! Thank God someone finally came up with effective marketing for it.
92366. y-not at 06:15 AM on 18 March 2011
       Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
       I note that Bangladesh has been mentioned several times in the posts as seriously at risk due to AGW above but looking at the graphics Bangalesh seems to be coming off not to badly compared to many others. Does the CDVI take into account sea level rise, and if it it does what degree of sea level rise/timeframe is it based on? I cannot access original paper.
       Moderator Response:

       [DB] The mapping simulations specifically take into account sea level rise, but make no projections as to how much sea level rise occurs when. Here's Bangladesh (remember the scale you're looking at):

       

       It's interesting to note the river bed channel cut into the continental shelf by the river during glacial maximums.

92367. andthorne at 06:14 AM on 18 March 2011
       Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
       Not when you consider methane emissions. What goes up as methane comes down as formaldehyde and the United States of America is one of the countries impacted greatly by it, according to a 1995 study by the Smithsonian University and Harvard scientists. Andrea Silverthorne
92368. michael sweet at 06:08 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maize harvest to shrink under Global Warming
       Johnd and Charlie, Perhaps the two of you are not familiar with the peer review process. This paper was published in Nature, one of the most respected journals in science. The peer reviewers have concluded that simple issues like you have raised are not germane to this discussion. If you have a problem with that you need to produce actual analysis of data. Idle hand waving and saying "I doubt it" for no particular reason is not an argument against a paper published in Nature. Provide links to data supporting your extraordinary claims or put in the effort to analyze the data yourself.
92369. L.J. Ryan at 06:06 AM on 18 March 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       les@621 Like I said C can equal A, but C cannot equal D.
92370. GFW at 06:05 AM on 18 March 2011
       And so castles made of sand fall in the sea, eventually
       Unfortunately, the idea of buying future coastline property doesn't work. Once the melt accelerates enough to cause the current coastline to indefensible, sea level rise is likely to be a multi-century process, with a "new" coastline every decade or so.
92371. Chris G at 06:02 AM on 18 March 2011
       Examining the impacts of ocean acidification
       Mike G, Thanks for the explanation. I recall some back of the envelope calculations that we could correct for extra CO2 by adding carbonate compounds to the ocean. They calculated that if we were to mine all of the cliffs of Dover, grind it up, and disperse it through the world's oceans, that would neutralise the extra CO2, but I can't recall whether that was at present levels of CO2 or a doubling, or what. In any case, no, that doesn't happen in nature, at least not at the rate required to accommodate the rate we are adding CO2. Ah, found it. Not exactly what I remembered, but the point remains. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/10/an-open-letter-to-steve-levitt/ Gavin's comment #9 Gavin's link is broken, but likely is related to Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide Page 37 "To counteract the changes in acidity caused by today’s ocean uptake of roughly 2 Gt C per year (IPCC 2001) would require roughly 20 Gt CaCO3 per year (Caldeira & Rau 2000), which, for a limestone layer 100 m thick, would require the removal of roughly 60 km2 each year." "Furthermore, limestone does not dissolve in surface waters, so additional processing, and energy, would be needed (Kheshgi 1995; Rau & Caldeira 1999)." and "Although the vast amounts of carbonate minerals needed may make this approach infeasible at the scale required to mitigate global changes in ocean chemistry, this approach is widely used by salt-water aquarists to promote coral growth in fish tanks. Thus, it might be possible to use alkalinity addition to save specific coral reefs (Rau & Caldeira 2002), but such ideas have never been tested in situ and therefore must be regarded as speculative." Speculative indeed.
92372. les at 05:44 AM on 18 March 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       "till they do." - oops, sorry should be "till the sum of Ds = A"... Or do you think it's possible that a significant number of photons will bounce around the box for ever without leaving?
92373. DSL at 05:43 AM on 18 March 2011
       Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
       "The scientific community almost unanimously agrees Earth is in a warming period as part of the natural cycle." Nope. That's the thing: according to identified "natural" cycles, we should be heading for an ice age. We're not. During the last solar minimum, average global temp increased. Shorter-term natural cycles--El Nino/La Nina--do not add heat/energy to the atmosphere; they move it around. The scientific community almost unanimously agrees that Earth is warming due to increased CO2, CH4, and H20 lengthening the path of infrared radiation as it exits the system. It's like a detour because of road construction: same number of cars entering and exiting the system, but more time is spent driving (and perhaps dropping by the Arctic Ice store on the way to melt a few kilos). As for No. 2, the more serious debate is between those who have various opinions on feedback mechanisms (particularly albedo in the form of land use, clouds, snow cover, etc.). That CO2 is a path lengthener is hardly seriously debated anymore (except here, by a handful). So as the drivers drive home via the detour, how many wrecks will they cause, causing more detours? As Arctic sea ice is diminished, how does that affect planetary albedo? As the temp rises, how much more water vapor (a GHG) does that put into the troposphere? No. 3: It seems that way. Life is persistent, but the speed of environmental change can't exceed the speed of evolution, or life will suffer. Our ability to adapt--as a species--is wicked. But there are seven billion of us living in a pretty complicated and sketchy system of food, water, shelter, and energy distribution. Minor disruptions, like the Japanese earthquake, cause thousands of deaths. It's easy to say that increased warmth will lengthen the growing season, but the person saying it usually hasn't taken into account everything else happening simultaneously: migrations, economic and political considerations, disease adaptation, insect (both as pollinator and pest) adaptation, changes in precipitation patterns and intensities, and all the interconnections between these elements. Your friend is right: Oil is good -- how we use oil . . . well that's another question.
92374. Alexandre at 05:41 AM on 18 March 2011
       Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
       Gairzo #94 Asking questions is good. I don't think you summed up well the current scientific understanding about GW. About your conclusion #1: there are many natural cycles known to science. None of them explain the recent warming (over the last half a century or so). For mor detail, you can see these posts here (among others): It's a natural cycle It's the sun So, the scientific consensus and the evidence do not point to natural causes. I think that kind of covers your #2 too. Your #3, which refers to this post specifically, is basically correct, although I'd elaborate more on the "planetary survival" bit. Let's say we'd have a lot of negative impacts on both human societies and ecosystems. for a more comprehensive picture ov the available evidence, there the Scientific Guide to GW Skepticism too. I hope this gives you a starting point. Feel free to ask. Oh, and welcome to SkS.
92375. les at 05:41 AM on 18 March 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       619 Ryan - hint: the walls are reflective. All the photons which do D (i.e. don't escape when they hit the front window) will bounce around (lets say B') till they hit the window again and are either C' or D', then B''/C''/D'', B'''/C'''/D''' etc. till they do.
92376. Bob Lacatena at 05:39 AM on 18 March 2011
       One of the best climate change ads I've seen
       6, ClimateWatcher, And it has to be sold because: 1) Many (most?) people are too shortsighted to look or think beyond their most immediate needs 2) There is a lot of money being spent on the foolish idea that climate change is not a problem. 3) There is a horde of people who have, for various reasons, fallen for the denial meme, and so tout that particular line even when they aren't getting a big check from the fossil fuel industry. The quiet implication that climate change needs to be sold because it's not real is as invalid as it is offensive. Regardless of the reason for the "sale," people need to prompted into waking up and doing something, by a variety of means, and the fact that this particular effort is annoying to deniers tells me that it is an effective tool.
92377. Alexandre at 05:07 AM on 18 March 2011
       Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
       It's a striking picture. I understood IEA data include only fossil fuel combustion (someone correct me if I'm wrong). For greater accuracy, I think the CO2 emission figures should include all emission sources, and all GHG. I don't think the overall picture would change much, but there could be some notable local differences. After all, fossil fuels are only about half of the picture.
92378. Gairzo at 04:59 AM on 18 March 2011
       Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
       I'm just a screenwriter living in Burbank and am having the debate with what are obviously right-wing, John Locke-ish, extreme deniers. I made the mistake of saying there wasn't a peer reviewed study denying global warning. So these climate change deniers verbally spanked me and sent me to a couple websites. After a short review, it was clear few of these sites denied warming was occurring but blamed it on the natural cycle, the sun etc. Please try and educate me on the general conclusions I reach from the twenty or so articles studies, charts, I've read--in other words please tell me if my conclusions have any merit: 1.) The scientific community almost unanimously agrees Earth is in a warming period as part of the natural cycle. 2.) The debate is between those who believe the spikes in temps, ice melting, oceans rising, etc.--the "negatives" seen in the last 150 years--are due to human activity, and those who claim human activity cannot possibly affect such forces that manifest over hundreds of thousands of years. 3.) From what I read, the "negative" studies far outweigh the "positive" studies and our planetary survival could well be in question if we don't act now. My friend sent me an e-mail extolling the virtues of the free market and the horrible economic impact transitioning to alternative energies would be. He ended the e-mail in big red letters...OIL IS GOOD. I don't think he'd be convinced if penguins moved next door. I won't try. I just want to know if a non-science guy like me was generally reading the data accurately. Forgive the intrusion on your discussion, just though I'd ask.
       Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Let me first start off by saying (in my best Ed McMahon imitation): "Welcome to Skeptical Science!" Second, you're not intruding: you're a guest here and guests get treated as valued persons (until some outwear their welcome then they get the ol' Heave-Ho!). Third (before we get to the main act), you have the right of it. Some will never be convinced of Christ's 2nd Coming unless they can stick a finger in His side... With the opening fanfare done, let's dig in, shall we?

       There is an immense amount of reference material discussed here and it can be a bit difficult at first to find an answer to your questions. That's why we recommend that Newcomers, Start Here and then learn The Big Picture.

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92379. Philippe Chantreau at 04:56 AM on 18 March 2011
       Skeptical Science nominated for Climate Change Communicator of the Year
       My vote is in, no doubt as to who my favorite are :-) Keep up the good work John. Rob, the "athleticism" at WUWT is really questionable. One has to peruse through that pathetic thread in which they slap each other on the back after some guy verified that CO2 does not deposit at -70 degrees in Earth' atmosphere. This, of course after repeated attempts by some who knew better to make the general population of the site understand the phase diagram. It's painful to watch such collective idiocy in action. These are the same people who go on accusing scientists of fraud when they clearly don't have the means to even begin to understand what the scientists are doing. If there is any "athleticism" at WUWT, it's barely at 8th grade level.
92380. Charlie A at 04:43 AM on 18 March 2011
       One of the best climate change ads I've seen
       It would be even more effective if one of the polar bears was in danger of being sucked into the whirlpool.
92381. L.J. Ryan at 04:41 AM on 18 March 2011
       2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
       Tom Curtis@615 1. A = C ok 2. C can not equal D without violating the 2nd law. Otherwise you have doubled your light/energy with a mirror and a filter. Light can not brighten due to it's own reflection. If your box was fully enclosed such all surfaces are reflective save two small aperture. One aperture to receive light the second to radiate light, do you really think the light/energy will increase beyond it's input? Now change your perfectly reflective interior to one with an emissivity of 1 (black body). Do you believe C will be grater then A. Again no. Black body emission represent the maximum conferred energy for light input. Therefore, a surface with emissivity less then one will NEVER radiate more then it's black body equivalent...regardless of it's own reflection or it' own re-radiation (back radiation).
92382. shoyemore at 04:34 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maximum and minimum monthly records in global temperature databases
       Charlie A #47, You can read some of the "Further Reading" which provide further detail of the "1/n model" for a random incidence of records. Random incidence is a hypothesis, not an assumption. As a hypothesis, it is certainly rejected by the data. Hence the excursions shown on the charts must be concluded to be due to extrinsic factors. A second (composite) hypothesis that temperatures changes up to mid-century are due to naturally occurring factors, and changes thereafter are due to human-induced factors, is also not rejected by these data. In that usual scientific sense, that is support. Confirming what we already know is quite boring, but most scientific experiments and analyses end up that way. However, these data may say something about the "cooling" that allegedly took place from the mid 1940s to mid 1970s, when greenhouse gas heating kicked in. These data seem to say that 1945 to 1956 was rather a slowdown in the warming trend (no coldest months noted, but several months that ranked in the top 10, other than 1). It also seems to date the end-of-century warming to the end of the 1950s, rather than the 1970s. Those are the only departures from the conventional picture presented by the temperature data analysis, and warrant further examination.
92383. Charlie A at 04:31 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maize harvest to shrink under Global Warming
       The problem with simplistic extrapolations such as "Roughly 65% of present maize-growing areas in Africa would xperience yield losses for 1 °C of warming under optimal rain-fed management," is that it assumes farmers are dumb. Farmers in different regions and different climates plant and harvest at different times of the year. It is unreasonable to assume that planting and harvesting times will not change.
92384. johnd at 04:29 AM on 18 March 2011
       Examining the impacts of ocean acidification
       dhogaza at 03:40 AM, "warming winters" is the equivalent of " declining alkalinity". "Hotter winters" is a more appropriate comparison for ocean acidification.
92385. johnd at 04:18 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maize harvest to shrink under Global Warming
       Rob Painting at 18:27 PM, whilst you might see some take-home points, I see only bring-along points which is what my very first comment on this thread indicated. Regarding your comment of uncultivated areas, perhaps further study of the information able to be extracted from the maps might lead to such areas being better described as areas beyond those already considered marginal. We must see this study for what it is. The authors are not those people who conducted the original trials. They have been able to utilise some data yielded by the trials but I expect that other data would have been considered propriety by the trial managers, and as such their, the trial operators, take-home points likely to be somewhat different to what this study could allow. The reason this is likely comes with understanding what trials such as these set out to achieve. The development of new varieties is an ongoing process as various traits are sought to be refined or developed. Developing varieties that allow cultivation to be extended into areas now considered unsuitable or marginal is as much an objective as increasing yields under existing conditions, and it appears that the former was one of the primary objectives of the original trials. Not all varieties live up to expectations when field trialled, some show negative responses, others none, others positive responses to varying degrees. Whilst we don't know how many different varieties were trialled or how each performed, what is indicated in this study is that the data is all in, in other words, the data includes the failures and the successes. This is where those conducting the original trials will most likely be taking home something different to what this study allows. They will have identified, and quantified, those varieties that responded positively to the trial conditions. It will be those such varieties that extend the ongoing development in plant genetics that allow productivity to keep pace, or even out-pace change as it occurs.
92386. Mike G at 04:08 AM on 18 March 2011
       Examining the impacts of ocean acidification
       Ken, you're forgetting the significance of the biological pump and the the effects of depth/temperature on CO2 solubility. Unlike heat, the pH and dissolved inorganic carbon patterns aren't determined by the mixing depth or diffusion rates.
92387. Mike G at 04:03 AM on 18 March 2011
       Examining the impacts of ocean acidification
       @8 WheelsOC- In oceanography, alkalinity and pH are two distinct parameters. Alkalinity is essentially the measure of the buffering capacity of seawater. Usually in the case of ocean acidification we're talking specifically about carbonate alkalinity, which measures the amount of buffering provided by carbonate and bicarbonate ions. Rest assured that when oceanographers are talking about the acidity of the sea, we use pH just like everyone else. The confusion comes from the fact that seawater has a pH>7, so it can be described as alkaline- though that term is unrelated to the measure of alkalinity. As the seas take up CO2, they become less alkaline, but alkalinity isn't directly affected. Confusing enough? ;) FWIW, while we are concerned about the reduction in pH, the real concern is the impact that that reduction in pH has on CaCO3 saturation. Even under pH below 7.8 many calcifiers do just fine so long as carbonate concentrations are maintained. Unfortunately, that works well in an aquarium but doesn't happen in nature.
92388. pbjamm at 04:00 AM on 18 March 2011
       Republicans to Repeal Laws of Physics
       Tom Curtis @177 "2) Attempting to place the burden of proof entirely on the opposing theory" This is the root of many a skeptic argument tactic. They reject the evidence as inadequate or fraudulent thus forcing the burden back onto the supporters of the AGW theory. Since this rejection is based entirely on ideology it makes it impossible to shift back. You can present evidence and facts til you are blue in the face and all the skeptics need do is deny them as facts. It is an unwinable struggle and a very unscientific attitude.
92389. Andy Skuce at 03:45 AM on 18 March 2011
       Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
       One of the limitations of applying cost-benefit analysis to climate change is because the costs and "benefits" (ie, avoiding or reducing negative impacts) accrue to different people or groups of people. Seen from the point of view of a poor Bangladeshi girl, having a wealthy westerner pay more for their energy in exchange for a slightly reduced chance of he grandfather's farm becoming submerged looks like a good deal, regardless of the discount rate or the damage probability function. And vice versa, unfortunately.
92390. dhogaza at 03:40 AM on 18 March 2011
       Examining the impacts of ocean acidification
       "ocean acidification" is no more wrong than discussing "warming winters".
92391. dana1981 at 03:32 AM on 18 March 2011
       Republicans to Repeal Laws of Physics
       Nature has just published an editorial which is consistent with my article:

       "...That [the EPA endangerment] finding is scientifically sound had no bearing on the decision to push the legislation, and Republicans on the House of Representatives’ energy and commerce committee have made clear their disdain for climate science. At a subcommittee hearing on 14 March, anger and distrust were directed at scientists and respected scientific societies. Misinformation was presented as fact, truth was twisted and nobody showed any inclination to listen to scientists, let alone learn from them. It has been an embarrassing display, not just for the Republican Party but also for Congress and the US citizens it represents...the legislation is fundamentally anti-science, just as the rhetoric that supports it is grounded in wilful ignorance."

92392. dana1981 at 03:18 AM on 18 March 2011
       Republicans to Repeal Laws of Physics
       Gilles -

       "there is absolutely no room for any creationism or astrology in the known science. Defending these ideas is, in fact, attacking the whole construction of modern science"

       That's not true. If for example there were an all-powerful deity which created the Earth 6,000 years ago and put all the pieces in place to make us think the planet is 4.5 billion years old, that wouldn't contradict modern science. What we know, for example, is that species evolve through natural selection. We've observed this. We also know that the planet is warming, we know how the greenhouse effect works, etc. There are observations and then there are theories and predictions based on those observations.

       "there is nothing contradicting the laws of physics if there were natural cycles explaining the medieval optimum"

       Of course not. Natural forcings do explain the MWP! That's a rather silly example. The bottom line is that the scientific evidence overwhelmingly supports both the evolutionary and AGW theories. But they are still both theories, and there are people who will always attack those theories. But Creationists really are not fundamentally different from global warming "skeptics". You may personally be more convinced by "skeptic" arguments than you are with Creationist arguments, but that doesn't mean they're any more or less scientifically valid.
92393. Chris G at 03:00 AM on 18 March 2011
       Examining the impacts of ocean acidification
       FWIW, I was thinking of a response to Rob's comment on the planet-dying phrase, but I see that Alan's reply #14 matches my original interpretation of his words. On the pedantic side of language, andthorne's comment does indeed parse, but the tokens do not create a well-formed expression. :P Regarding Ken and CB, I'd be interested in seeing some math to support either position. It's conceivable that the upwelling of the deep ocean will, or is, providing something of a buffer, but it is not clear whether that is enough to prevent a large enough change in pH to dramatically change the nature of life in the oceans. Current trends indicate it is not. However, Ken's use of "if" is a bit off-putting. What do you mean "if"? Measuring pH is not difficult, and there exist records. We have measurements and basic chemistry that both tell us that the ocean is and should be becoming more acidic. It smacks of an attempt to cast doubt where there really isn't any. More acidic/less alkaline, they mean the same thing; let's not get hung up on the name. The general population believes that acids dissolve things, and that is what is happening. If you say the oceans are becoming less alkaline, it does not convey the meaning of what is really happening. Well, if does to those with a solid foundation in chemistry, but that isn't the majority of the audience. So, we have to deal with some backlash with the Dunning-Krugers when they learn that the actual pH is still technically on the alkaline side before they learn that alkaline water does in fact still dissolve the shell material, and that it dissolves it a lot more at 8.1 than it does at 8.2. A pH of 7.8 is downright frightening from an ocean food web perspective.
92394. Charlie A at 02:58 AM on 18 March 2011
       Maximum and minimum monthly records in global temperature databases
       Shoyemore, #46 says "There is a useful model that if the records are random in a period of static temperature, the probability of a record in the nth datum (i.e. that is is greater or less than all previous data) is 1/n." There are two problems with the above statement. 1. "in a period of static temperature" .... most records indicate that the global temperature has been generally increasing since around 1800, or perhaps 1750. Your analysis assumes that there is not underlying trend to global temperatures. Over a wide ranges of averaging periods, that is clearly NOT true. Once you have made this erroneous assumption, the remainder of your analysis is faulty. 2. "probability of a record in the nth datum (i.e. that is is greater or less than all previous data) is 1/n." .... even for stationary processes this is not true. For a process with zero autocorrelation the probability is proportional to log(n). This is pretty much irrelevant, though, because 1) the temperature record has a trend, thereby invalidating your analysis, and 2) there is a high degree of autocorrelation in the temperature record, whether one looks over a period of months, years, decades. ------------------------- In response to my request that you apply your analysis to the earlier period, you use the interesting argument that "The conventional wisdom is that (human induced) CO2 warming did not set in on a large scale until the 1970s, whereas warming earlier in the century was due to other (natural) variations. There is nothing explicit in the chart to upset that view." The price of tea in China also does nothing to upset that view. Is there anything in your analysis that explicitly supports that supports that view? As a Skeptical Scientist you approach to proposing and supporting a hypothesis is rather strange. My point in asking you to apply your analysis to the earlier period is to see if there was something in your calculations that would give indication that some increases in temperature are abnormal and unnatural, and that some are merely natural variations.
92395. dana1981 at 02:48 AM on 18 March 2011
       Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
       Gilles keeps making this argument that if we're forced to reduce global fossil fuel use, poor countries will remain poor. Reality is that as DSL notes in #8, energy use increases with wealth, but there's no particular reason fossil fuels must be the source of that energy. It's just been the case so far because fossil fuels have been (artificially) cheap and plentiful. That doesn't mean economic growth and increased energy consumption in developing nations can't come from another energy source if we want it to. Gilles is stuck in the past, unfortunately.
92396. Albatross at 02:34 AM on 18 March 2011
       What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?
       TTT @73, "Ignoring feedbacks doesn't make the answer wrong..." Interesting contorting, but Lindzen's answer remains wrong, and it is troubling that you are willing to bend over backwards to dismiss that fact and defend yet another of Lindzen's monumental faux pas. The biosphere is a fully coupled and interactive system, you cannot ignore feedbacks. Well, you could but your answers/science would be wrong as demonstrated here. Your argument is ironic, given that Lindzen and Spencer insist that climate scientists are ignoring their hypothesized strong negative feedback. Yet here you seem to be arguing that "ignoring feedbacks does not make the answer wrong". No. Yet more inconsistencies and contradictions by 'skeptics'.
92397. JMurphy at 02:29 AM on 18 March 2011
       We're heading into cooling
       Henry justice, firstly, see muoncounter's reply to you (if you have missed it) over on "Does CO2 always correlate with temperature (and if not, why not?)" Next, your gish-gallop list of the usual so-called skeptical arguments are easily dealt with on these threads : Climategate and the peer-review process Is there a scientific consensus on global warming? Taking the Money for Grant(ed) – Part I Taking the Money for Grant(ed) – Part II (The latter two are from Global Warming : Man or Myth ?. In fact, you would probably get a lot from just starting at this thread : Newcomers, Start Here Finally, your use of a site which contains the following - "intelligentsia ranks of leftists/liberals progressives and socialists", "the 'elites'", "left-liberal climate science", "the left-biased MSM", "the elites' science of stupidity", "liberals-progressives-socialists" - betrays an obvious need for political bias and opinion rather than facts : a sad state of affairs for anyone claiming to be a scientist.
92398. Albatross at 02:19 AM on 18 March 2011
       Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change
       Well, Gilles was wanting attention and he sure has received it. I for one would ignore his pontificating until he posts something substantial and that is backed by the science and related literature. otherwise the thread just gets hopelessly off topic and derailed-- the intention perhaps?
92399. Yvan Dutil at 02:09 AM on 18 March 2011
       And so castles made of sand fall in the sea, eventually
       Time to by future beach from properties en Bâton Rouge.
92400. ClimateWatcher at 01:56 AM on 18 March 2011
       One of the best climate change ads I've seen
       "Limited time offer, order now." "Hurry, supply is limited" "So you don't forget, order before midnight tonight". Things which have to be sold rely on hard sell and time limits. Climate armageddon follows suit.

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