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Daniel Bailey at 09:32 AM on 27 October 2019Video: Dorian’s Deadly Stall – How Climate Change is Weaponizing Hurricanes
Current 2019 global ACE is 111% of normal YTD values.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:17 AM on 27 October 2019Video: Dorian’s Deadly Stall – How Climate Change is Weaponizing Hurricanes
Claims like the one made by SteveW, that all is well because "Accumulated Cyclonic Energy (ACE) is not increasing", always seem to have to dismiss the bigger picture.
Selective points can be turned into any claim, as long as many related counter-points can be ignored. (As a tongue-in-cheek example, I know a Steve who is very resistant to learning new things, especially if the new learning would require him to give up something he developed a liking for benefiting from, so I expect other Steves to be inclined to be like that. Maybe this Steve will prove me to be wrong about that).
In addition to nigelj's point about the expected increase of category 4 and 5 events (presented in a 2013 paper analyzing satelite data from 1975 to 2010, and not evaluating ACE), I would add that there also appear to be recent cyclones with sustained wind speeds so high that a Category 6 should be added.
Back to ACE, by reviewing a few sites I have found that many evaluations are limited in scope. They are not complete global evaluations.
The evaluations 'lacking a clear increased signal' are likely regarding the most commonly reported Atlantic Hurricane events (they exclude Typhoons). I did, however, come across a Wikipedia presentation regarding Accumulated cyclone energy that includes a presentation of Atlantic basin hurricane season values from 1851 to 2019 showing that a significant number of Hyperactive and Above Normal years have occurred since 1995. That appears to contradict a claim about a lack of increase, even in that limited scope of the globe (unless the claim is that there is no clear evidence of an increase within that most recent 20 year set of clearly higher values - which needs a two-faced way of looking at things, or a desire for a myopic view).
In addition to that point, a discussion of Hurricanes is not the full story. All cyclonic activity matters, not just the potential to affect USA territory. There are also Typhoons and, in addition, they seem to be increasingly damaging (irrespective of whether there is a measured increase of ACE).
And the even bigger story is that, in addition to 'longer lingering hurricanes producing more damage', more intense and damaging Tropical Storm level events (sustained winds below hurricane levels), also appear to be occurring.
Maybe SteveW would care to prove that my generalization about all Steves is wrong by providing a comprehensive and verifiable evaluation of what is really going on regarding all aspects of cyclonic events, the Big Picture (or will SteveW prove to be resistant to learning new things, especially if the new learning would require him to give up something he developed a liking for benefiting from).
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nigelj at 06:15 AM on 27 October 2019Video: Dorian’s Deadly Stall – How Climate Change is Weaponizing Hurricanes
Steve W it must be very inconvenient for you that the data shows the numbers of category 4 and 5 hurricanes are increasing as in the link I posted. These are the ones that cause by far the most damage. It's trivially obvious that global warming pushes more energy into the earths system so this must by definition effect all weather systems, so its a question of how, and it doesn't necessarily mean you get a simplistic response like more global cyclonic energy, because weather systems are complicated.
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Eclectic at 04:50 AM on 27 October 2019Talking about climate science at SAP TechEd in Barcelona
Congratulations, BaerbelW , on the spur-of-the-moment mini meeting!
The meeting looks much more Spartan and much more cheerful than the sour-and-dour expressions photographed at the recent long-planned & lavish assembly of "old white men" (in embarrassingly small numbers!) at one of the faux-grand Trump buildings in the USA, for climate-denialist propaganda purposes!
I was intrigued to hear about the "throw-away" carpet idea getting banned. Naively, I had thought that there was no such thing as single-use carpeting.
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Tom Dayton at 01:54 AM on 27 October 2019Video: Dorian’s Deadly Stall – How Climate Change is Weaponizing Hurricanes
SteveW: I don't think total accumulated cyclonic energy would be increased by stalling patterns of hurricanes. I don't think there is anything close to a consensus that total accumulated cyclonic energy will be increased by global warming. Instead, the weak consensus among climatologists is that the number of hurricanes will be unchanged or might even decrease, while the number of very strongest hurricanes will increase.
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SteveW at 00:42 AM on 27 October 2019Video: Dorian’s Deadly Stall – How Climate Change is Weaponizing Hurricanes
Must be very inconvenient for you that Total Accumulated Cyclonic Energy worldwide shows no change throughout all the climate change hysteria of the last decades. Guess wishing it were so doesn't have much effect!
Moderator Response:[DB] In this venue, assertions about the science need to be accompanied by citations to credible sources. Simply making things up and/or misrepresenting the science fall into the category of "sloganeering" and are usually snipped out or such comments may be removed entirely, per the Comments Policy of this site.
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Inflammatory tone and language snipped.
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Postkey at 17:01 PM on 26 October 2019Tipping Points: Could the climate collapse?
“The IPCC report that the Paris agreement based its projections on considered over 1,000 possible scenarios. Of those, only 116 (about 10%) limited warming below 2C. Of those, only 6 kept global warming below 2C without using negative emissions. So roughly 1% of the IPCC’s projected scenarios kept warming below 2C without using negative emissions technology like BECCS. And Kevin Anderson, former head of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, has pointed out that those 6 lone scenarios showed global carbon emissions peaking in 2010. Which obviously hasn’t happened.
So from the IPCC’s own report in 2014, we basically have a 1% chance of staying below 2C global warming if we now invent time travel and go back to 2010 to peak our global emissions. And again, you have to stop all growth and go into decline to do that. And long term feedbacks the IPCC largely blows off were ongoing back then too.”www.facebook.com/wxclimonews/posts/455366638536345
Will there be 'change'?
“Today’s global consumption of fossil fuels now stands at roughly five times what it was in the 1950s, and one-and-half times that of the 1980s when the science of global warming had already been confirmed and accepted by governments with the implication that there was an urgent need to act. Tomes of scientific studies have been logged in the last several decades documenting the deteriorating biospheric health, yet nothing substantive has been done to curtail it. More CO2 has been emitted since the inception of the UN Climate Change Convention in 1992 than in all of human history. CO2 emissions are 55% higher today than in 1990. Despite 20 international conferences on fossil fuel use reduction and an international treaty that entered into force in 1994, manmade greenhouse gases have risen inexorably.”
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Jesse Baker at 13:47 PM on 26 October 2019Tipping Points: Could the climate collapse?
Nigel J, #17: “So yes mitigating climate change to get to net zero emissions by 2050 will be challenging and will require some lifestyle changes, but not nearly as much as the war effort, even if the 3% figure is too optimistic.”
My example’s extreme, of course; yet I’m old-fashioned. To me, reducing emissions means for the most part not burning the stuff, with CO2 sequestration as an adjunct, and I’ve hoped the US would adopt an energy policy ever since the OPEC embargo brought Nixon’s “Double Nickel” speed limit. At least the absolute growth of fossil fuel consumption has stopped again, as happened during a few 1980s years when we had advances in efficiency.
I take it the 3% represents a shift from consumption to investment in the new sectors, geothermal, wind, hydro and solar we’d be developing. It would create jobs, but lead to more expensive goods. Any laws we adopt on energy must have broad public support to include, grudging or not, that of conservatives and those in the oil business; else they won’t last through our government’s regular changes of party control. Once law, it’ll have to be enforced through EPA rules or heavy Pigovian taxes. This is what makes me feel it a difficult problem.
Doug, #18: “…in terms of Long Now thinking, the faster we work now, the better the long result.”
Another reason I wish we’d taken energy issues seriously when the first bubbles popped. I’m agnostic on the particulars of climate change itself. Models are attempting to separate out a small effect in a complex, dynamic Earth and the numeric forecast ranges shown on graphs today haven’t changed a great deal from those I saw in the ‘80s or ‘90s. Yet adding CO2 to the air—and a full quarter of all this gas is manmade, emitted after my birth—encourages temperature hikes which will continue, due to thermal inertia, for a long time even if the cause is removed. It takes just a Kelvin or so before trouble starts.
Running such an “experiment” on the only planet we have is foolish. Uncertainty isn’t a license for recklessness. I don’t see why Americans cannot arrive at agreement on the need for curbs.
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nigelj at 17:25 PM on 25 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Wait a minute. Both hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen powered rockets produce water vapour which is a greenhouse gas. This would put water vapour reasonably high up in the atmosphere. I assume this has been evaluated hasn't it? But has it?
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nigelj at 11:30 AM on 25 October 2019Video: Dorian’s Deadly Stall – How Climate Change is Weaponizing Hurricanes
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0
"We find no anthropogenic signal in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies. But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of ~25–30 % per °C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes. This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2 hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal intensity distribution, with the secondary maximum at Category 4 hurricanes. This global signal is reproduced in all ocean basins."
So increasing frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes, with stalling patterns and higher levels of rainfall. A potent mix.
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michael sweet at 07:31 AM on 25 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
Mark Pitts,
So the burden of proof lies with those who want to save money by building the cheaper systems. It seems to me like a no brained decision to build cheaper renewable energy and not expensive polluting fossil fuels.
Why are you against cheaper energy?
Moderator Response:[DB] That user has opted to recuse himself from further discussions here, finding the burden of compliance with this venue's Comments Policy too onerous.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:37 AM on 25 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
I keep thinking there should be an attempt to create a rocket assist system to enable electric aircraft to achieve greater range. Rockets can efficiently use oxygen/hydrogen mix without producing carbon emissions.
The initial climb to cruising altitude is the phase of flight that requires the most energy. If you could build a carrier system similar to what Scaled Composites used to put their small manned craft into space, perhaps that—as a rocket propelled carrier—could carry an electric aircraft up to a high cruise altitute from which to initiate the flight. The carrier craft would then fly back to the airport to refueled for the next flight.
My other recent thoughts on the future of electric aviation is that, perhaps people need to get used to slower, more relaxing flights for long trips. If you could create an electric aircraft design that could make a transoceanic flight with an assist to cruise, slower flights might be what make that feasible. The economics of electric flight hold such a large advantage that it may be cost effective to give customers business-class style cabins and expect normal 12 hr flights to last 20 hrs instead. The additional 8 hrs could be very tolerable in a comfortable setting.
Additional note: electric motors offer some clear advantages over fuel-based engines since both ICE and turnbines require air for combustion. At higher altitudes a great deal of additional energy is used to accelerate air into a chamber for combustion. There are efficiency losses for electric motors as well, but I believe it's limited to accelerating air for propulsion rather than propulsion and combustion.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:54 AM on 25 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
nigelj@24,
Free Market activity fundamentally develops powerful resistance to any attempt to limit activity in the competitions for Status, especially when the limitations would reduce some developed perceptions of status relative to others (winners do not like changes that reduce their winning - even if they understandably deserve to lose status - even if the changes will only make them less obvious winners).
However, limitations imposed to achieve and improve on safety levels are 'adapted to' after attempts to block them from being developed and implemented fail (though some people still try to claim that not wearing a seat-belt and being in a car without airbag systems is 'Safer' - which only proves that what people believe cannot be allowed to govern what limitations are imposed).
The same can be seen to be the case for limitations to achieve and improve on the constantly improving understanding of the Sustainable Development Goals (social and environmental safety). The Free Market can adapt to SDG limitations. But its participants can be expected to powerfully resist the development and implementation of such limitations.
Air Travel regulations to correct what has developed probably need to be implemented with the understanding that the developed magnitude of the activity needs to be reduced. That reduction of a portion of the economy will be powerfully resisted no matter how harmful and unnecessary the developed activity is actually understood to be. A similar resistance to correction can be seen in places like Alberta where the development since the need to reduce global fossil fuel was solidly established has been attempts to increase the rate of benefiting from the export of fossil fuel resources (the USA also did it, as well as Australia).
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David Kirtley at 00:34 AM on 25 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
Here is a timely piece from Oreskes and Stern on the intersection of climate science and economics: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think.
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Nick Palmer at 22:22 PM on 24 October 2019Canada's ClimateData Web Portal: Normal Science, Not Fake
BTW, I'm a bit worried that John Cook et al's newest report will give plenty of ammunition to the smarter denialists/propagandists out there...
America Misled - How the Fossil Fuel Industry Deliberately Misled Americans About Climate Change -
Nick Palmer at 21:39 PM on 24 October 2019Canada's ClimateData Web Portal: Normal Science, Not Fake
Hank@26
Campaign groups and high prominence individuals routinely conflate climate change with the possible '6th mass extinction', that may be happening, to imply to their followers, by throwing around sciency sounding words like methane, tipping points and permafrost, that near term human extinction is likely unless we do what they demand. -
nigelj at 09:03 AM on 24 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Hydrogen fuel cells for aircraft would face safety challenges. Even if these were overcome the public might still feel insecure and not supportive. It's like the public fear of nuclear power, which may be excessive, but is very real and has killed the nuclear industry dead in some places.
However I think some combination of biofuels, electric aircraft where possible, less flying and carbon offsets would certainly work. The combination would get us to net zero. Biofuels blends up to 50% are acceptable, leaving the balance to be achieved by less flying, carbon offsets, etc which looks realistic although it looks like it would commit a very large part of new forests to these offsets.
The challenge is this is a lot of different components to get into in place and coordinate, especially in a free market democracy. China could do this by dictate, but this is not possible in a free market democracy. So would it make sense for western countries to go on a war footing and give government's sweeping powers? I would not be loving this, and it seems unlikely. But who knows....
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Doug Bostrom at 07:35 AM on 24 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
The impossible expectation that expert resources must reach a supernatural level of omniscience seems like a variation of a familiar route to misunderstanding, covered here.
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Doug Bostrom at 07:19 AM on 24 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Yeah liquid hydrogen might work. I don't think we'll be able to engineer pressurized storage on the scale/weight points needed (monolithic containers are too heavy, fatigue cycle life of composite containers is quite poor and we're speaking of tens of thousands of cycles).
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Philippe Chantreau at 06:04 AM on 24 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Good points from contributors. There can be progress nonetheless
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nigelj at 05:52 AM on 24 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
markpittsusa @25, your analogy doesn't make too much sense because a study on the physical sciences would never or rarely require an economist. The NCA and similar reports consider not just the science but also the impacts risks and adaption to climate change. Can we agree this is a very wide ranging issue? As such you need a huge pool of information beyond what one person could do. The physical impacts are vast and encompass nearly every scientific discipline so not just atmospheric physics, but geology, biology, water conservation, crop production and literally dozens of other issues.
But quantifying the economic impacts of all this only needs a few economists. Much of their work is computerised. For this reason the team of people producing the NCA report is likely to be mainly various science and technology experts, and just a few economists. So the balance of people looks fine to me.
You have considerable pateience to track down peoples qualifications and it's not a bad sceptical exercise to go through, but I don't see that you have uncovered any problem, because theres clearly significant economic expertise involved. Just scanning the bibliography in the NCA reports and numerous economics research foundations are mentioned, and clearly they must employ plenty of economists.
But you have to apply a commonsense filter to scepticism. Very few climate scientists are going to do pure economic modelling and calculations. I know a little bit about economics, have read a couple of text books, and this is complex material and climate scientists don't know this stuff and why on earth would they try when they can simply get a couple of economists involved? If a climate expert did economic modelling and it turned out to be a mess which is quite likely, they would probably get caught out in peer review or by various sceptics and it would be painful, so climate scientists are not stupid, they delegate the economic calculations to economists or similar people. Climate scientists want to do climate science. There may be some exceptions but not that many.
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markpittsusa at 05:25 AM on 24 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
“What’s wrong with climate scientists publishing in economics?” In my view such publications, per se, are not a problem.But you need only turn the NCA situation around to see why the selection of authors brings the report into doubt. Consider the following:
Suppose, for example, that a government somewhere commissioned a major report on climate change which was primarily written by traditional economists, with only about 15% participation by traditional physical climate scientists.
Now of course those economists would have taken 1 or 2 courses in climate science as part of their curriculum.
Perhaps those economists had even published papers on climate science, but their publications were all in economics journals, not climate science journals.
And assume further that the report’s findings were generally at variance with most climate scientists (including a recent Nobel Prize winning climate scientist.)
If all this were to happen, climate scientists would (correctly) cry “Foul !”
But what I’ve described is nearly the exact mirror image of the NCA report.
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering snipped.
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Doug Bostrom at 04:27 AM on 24 October 2019Tipping Points: Could the climate collapse?
Thinking of the "Long Now" it's pretty clear that almost (?) everything we need to accomplish for mitigation of climate change is necessary work in any case, even if CO2 were not a factor.
And again in terms of Long Now thinking, the faster we work now, the better the long result.
Unfortunately I'm not sure I'm being cynical in agreeing w/Jesse that our nature as a species is to ignore problems until opening the front door of one's home reveals flames, waves lapping at the stoop, hungry people from somewhere else too blasted for further existence to be possible. This myopia seems part and parcel of our tendency to behave as though the world ends the day we die.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:03 AM on 24 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
doug_bostrom@20,
Hydrogen fuel cells may be a practical option for air travel. Time will tell.
I agree with seriously considering the reasons for taking a flight until a decent way to fly is developed. I am not a believer in buying off-set credits to justify an 'optional' flight.
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Doug Bostrom at 03:01 AM on 24 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
It'll be interesting to see how the split between short and long haul aircraft develops.
I've been repeatedly surprised by battery technology development but it seems as though achieving battery energy density required for long haul flight is still very challenging, requiring another order of magnitude performance improvement in density let alone the economics issue of how many flight cycles such batteries could support before they degraded.
Some kind of nudge to accelerate biofuels (algae is looking promising) would be helpful. Boeing and others have invested some substantial resources in establishing underpinnings for this but only as a long term project, looking far ahead. There's progress on the shelf there and more work to be done, quickly or leisurely. Quickly would be better.
Meanwhile, we could think harder before flying. Before making reservations, do some method acting and imagine being herded like an animal. That's what you're buying with your ticket. :-)
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:11 AM on 24 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Philippe @18,
I generally agree with acting faster on the larger impacting parts of the developed global activity.
However, the more important point is that Air Travel is not a requirement for the future of humanity. Sure, it is Nice for those who get to enjoy it. But only a small portion of current Air Travel is "Necessary for sustainable global decent living", mainly for emergency aid situations.
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Philippe Chantreau at 01:43 AM on 24 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
I don't totally agree with Daniel. Transportation accounts for 29% of all CO2 emissions, air transport represents 9% of that. In comparison, electricity and industry total 50%. There are low hanging fruits in reducing emissions far easier to reach than high flying planes (no pun intended).
If we could eradicate coal burning for electricity and drastically reduce gasoline burning for ground transportation, we would see a halt in the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere even with continued air transport at the volume where it is now. Solutions have to be realistic. Air transport presents the greatest engineering challenge because of the energy density of jet fuel. At least some manufacturers are working on possible solutions and are not showing denial or some illusion that things can go on the same they have been for the past 50 years.
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nigelj at 16:42 PM on 23 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
To quote Monty Python "and now for something completely different" This Gigantic Chinese Airship Flies on Solar Power For Up to Six Months at a Time.
Daniel Mocsny - I get your scepticism on this, and zero carbon air travel will be challenging and the first generation planes will be far from zero carbon. But remember those first mobile phones like bricks with limited coverage and abilities? Things changed faster than I would ever have thought possible.
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nigelj at 16:27 PM on 23 October 2019Tipping Points: Could the climate collapse?
Jesse Baker @16
Interesting points. I agree getting to net carbon zero in 1 - 2 decades would require a substantial effort and some sacrifices, but not nearly as much as you might think. Lets unpick the numbers a little. Now America normally spends about 3% of gdp per year (total economic output) on the military. During WW2 this peaked at 41% of gdp and averaged about 30% per year over the war period, as below.
www.usgovernmentspending.com/defense_spending
Now lets assume the Paris time frame of 2 degrees by 2050, so 3 decades. Various cost analyses suggest climate mitigation would cost the USA and other similar countries about 3% of gdp (total economic output) per year, spread over 3 decades. This is a huge scale of difference to the war efforts 30% of gdp per year, about ten times less.
So yes mitigating climate change to get to net zero emissions by 2050 will be challenging and will require some lifestyle changes, but not nearly as much as the war effort, even if the 3% figure is too optimistic. So its improbable that food or energy rationing would be required.
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Daniel Mocsny at 15:42 PM on 23 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
The potential fuel/cost saving for pilot training sounds comical in light of the thousands of tonnes of CO2 each pilot thus trained will enable airlines to dump into the atmosphere during the course of his or her career.
If the airline industry needs more pilots, we're already too late to prevent climate apocalypse. The airline industry should be well along in the process of phasing itself out by now, if we wanted to have any chance of staying within even a risky carbon budget.
Each new airliner that enters service has a projected lifetime of 40 years. There are no zero-emission airliners even on the drawing board yet. The marginal improvements in airliner efficiency have been more than offset by the growth in flying.
Humans simply lack the grasp of morality and facts necessary to avoid cooking themselves off the planet. Flying is proof of this.
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Jesse Baker at 11:33 AM on 23 October 2019Tipping Points: Could the climate collapse?
“…time for at least a WWII mobilization, better a reorganization of society along democratic lines…”
And that’s precisely the thing you won’t get in the USA until climate-related disaster is seen as imminent. In WWII the federal government seized control of the economy and inducted 7 million young men for the duration. Manufacture of tires, not to say automobiles, was halted, and each household allowed 4 gallons of gas a week amid rationing applied to food and clothes as well. Hardly a democratic remake of society; the war effort was coercive to a degree few Americans have experienced.
I’m not in the denial camp on climate. I certainly favor the politically feasible conservation and renewables that might limit growth of impacts on the environment. But we shouldn’t fool ourselves into believing emergency action painless. Solar, wind, biodiesel and forestry projects overseas can, in the short run, replace or offset little of the 80 Quads in fossil fuels Americans burn each year, nor are they free of problems brought by their intensive need for land and materials. Zero emissions to be achieved within a decade or two will entail restriction of civilian access to energy and consumer goods even if it hurts the middle classes and poor.
For such reasons, I’m convinced the climate change movements face a long slog.
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Wol at 10:48 AM on 23 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
I guess that one day it's conceivable that large electrically powered aircraft could be in the air, but at present basic power/weight ratios mean that only small and short range ones are possible.
By promoting very small commuter-style aircraft we are effectively encouraging more wealthy individuals to get airborne, not encouraging mass transport to clean up!
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nigelj at 05:58 AM on 23 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
markpittsusa (@13 on the electric aircraft thread)
"Economists Estimating Economic Costs of Climate Change Due to Labor Lost (16%) This comment concerns the lack of professional economists participating in the Labor Loss part of economic losses in that same report. The list below shows that only 3 of 19 experts (about 16%) of those estimating economic costs actually have educational or professional training in economics."
Assumimg your numbers are correct, I have no problem with 3 economists out of 19 experts. It's about what I would expect. It looks entirely appropriate.Bear in mind many of those experts would have done units in economics at university (college) as part of their degrees. That is common practice with people with public policy degrees, and even scientists sometimes do units in economics.
You haven't provided any evidence that 3 economists is not enough. It's also not clear that the labour productivity section footnotes would include all the people invloved in the study. So I'm just not sure what your problem is. Who are you to judge how many economists or other experts should be on these teams? Surely the decision is for the people involved in the studies? They will know what resources they need and how much.
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nigelj at 05:41 AM on 23 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
markpittsusa @13, did you not read the simple, clear instruction in the blue box @11 to post your off topic comments on the alternative link (last weeks research thread)?
I will post a response on that link. In summary I have no problem with 3 professional economists out of 19 experts. Please provide evidence it is inappropriate.
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nigelj at 05:34 AM on 23 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
markpittsusa @22
"In our world of Realpolitik, the burden of proof is on the people who want to spend $100 trillion to change the world's energy systems."
And the case has been adequately proven as far as I'm concerned.
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markpittsusa at 05:10 AM on 23 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
Burden of Proof ?
In our world of Realpolitik, the burden of proof is on the people who want to spend $100 trillion to change the world's energy systems.
Moderator Response:[PS] That would be a strawman argument. If your views are based in your political values and you cannot imagine a way to reduce CO2 emissions in a way that is compatible with your political views, then can you imagine any proof that would satify you? If not, then this is not the site for you.
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markpittsusa at 05:03 AM on 23 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Economists Estimating Economic Costs of Climate Change Due to Labor Lost (16%)
This post is part of my on-going response to several commentators who asked me to be more specific about the source of my views.
My last post concerned the under-representation (only 12-1/2%) of professional economists participating in estimating the economic loss of climate change as it related to premature Mortality (75% of the total economic cost according to Hsiang et al 2017) in the Fourth NCA report.
This comment concerns the lack of professional economists participating in the Labor Loss part of economic losses in that same report.
The list below shows that only 3 of 19 experts (about 16%) of those estimating economic costs actually have educational or professional training in economics.
[Definitional Note: Here “educational training in economics” means a graduate degree in economics. “Professional training in economics” means held a professional position as an economist, per se, on a economics faculty, in government, or in business.]
Go to p.552 of the Fourth NCA report Vol. II. The references concerning the economic cost of labor lost due to climate change are 157, 167, 169, 164, 170, and 160.
The experts cited directly (as opposed to citied indirectly through another report) are below.
My Preliminary findings:
Ref #157 references another report.
Ref. #167
Salomon Hsiang (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Robert Kopp (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Amir Jina (Yes, an economist, or at least can publish as such)
James Rising (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Maria Del Mar Delgado (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Shashank Mohan (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
D.J. Rasmussen (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Robert Muir-Wood (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Paul Wilson (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Michael Oppenheimer (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Kate Larsen (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
T. Houser (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics - but not 100% clear from what I can find.)
Ref #169
Joshua S. Graff Zivin (YES, an economist)
Matthew J. Neidell (Yes, an economist)
Ref #164
Michael D. Mastrandrea (No apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Ref #170
J. P. Dunne (No apparent professional or educational training in economics)
R. J. Stouffer (No apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Jasmin G. John (No apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Ref#160:
K. Gordon (No apparent professional or educational training in economics)
In my view, as long as economists are not the primary experts making estimates of economic costs, critics are justified in questioning whether these are really experts.
I’d appreciate any comments or corrections.
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nigelj at 12:18 PM on 22 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
It's just absurd to think people with degrees in atmospheric physics or climate science (and nothing else) would do detailed economic analysis and forecasting. They might dabble a little where their maths skills are relevant, but they would not be the primary source. They have neither the training, time or skills. That's why research papers on the relationship between hard sciences and the humanities like economics, or health fields have many authors in several disciplines.
Scepticism is important and I get where Mark is coming from, but there are only so many hours in the day, and I prefer to target my scepticism at sensible things. If the paper reached unusual looking conclusions I would be sceptical of the content and I perhaps would check out the authors, but its not unusual. But each to their own interests.
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nigelj at 11:53 AM on 22 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
markpittsusa at 9 (on electric airplane thread)
"When I say Hsiang is not an economist, I mean he has no formal training in economics, has never been part of an economics faculty, and has never published in a peer-reviewed economics journal.That is exactly the problem. He is a climate guy trying to do economics."
Yes he has no economics qualification but that doesn't matter. He doesn't have to have this because 1) he has plenty of maths and economics experience if you google his history and publications and 2) The paper he authored has plenty of people with economics qualifications as in the list I posted. That's how science works. Like I said it tends to be a multi disciplinary team effort. And remember many qualifications in public policy subjects include units in economics.
And your argument is flawed on another level because its the "argument from authority" fallacy, namely that someones qualifications are not evidence their findings are correct or incorrect. Studies ultimately stand or fall on what they say. You have yet to prove the content of the study wrong.
And you don't need a huge number of economists anyway.
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markpittsusa (@11 on electric airplane thread)
"I have provide detailed analysis that I (and I think most economists) would agree shows that only 1 in 8 directedly cited "experts" for mortality related economic costs are not trained in economics or public health."
You have not provided a detailed analysis. You have sampled only a very small number of people involved in the section on heatwaves and all from a section on the physical sciences, as I showed, and so of course they would not include any economists or health experts, or certainly very few. I'm not sure why you don't seem to understand this.
"Please share the names of the economists that you think contributed. The entire burden of proof is not mine alone."
Yes the entire burden is on you. I'm happy with the report, therefore the burden of proof is on you. Innocent until proven guilty. I've read enough of these sorts of things to know they are multi disciplinary affairs. You appear to have jumped to conclusions of your own without checking properly. That's your problem, not mine.
Moderator Response:[PS] Added backlink to original thread.
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nigelj at 11:30 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
I have placed a response on the followup link.
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markpittsusa at 10:57 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
@Nigel.
I have provide detailed analysis that I (and I think most economists) would agree shows that only 1 in 8 directedly cited "experts" for mortality related economic costs are not trained in economics or public health.
You believe I am wrong. Please share the names of the economists that you think contributed.
The entire burden of proof is not mine alone.
Moderator Response:[PS] This is offtopic. Please place followups here.
Start by explaining whether you agree with Hsiang 2017 et al.
Backlink to this comment would help.
Further offtopic comments by anyone will be deleted.
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markpittsusa at 10:53 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
As I carefully explained, my analysis only concerned mortality since that is 75% of the economic costs.
(In the past I've looked at the other sections you mention, but the result is about the same.)
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markpittsusa at 10:51 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
When I say Hsiang is not an economist, I mean he has no formal training in economics, has never been part of an economics faculty, and has never published in a peer-reviewed economics journal.
That is exactly the problem. He is a climate guy trying to do economics.
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nigelj at 10:05 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Move my comment to a relevant thread if you want.
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nigelj at 10:04 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
markpittsusa @20
Unfortunately your comments appear deeply flawed.
You say "This comment concerns my contention that economists are severely under-represented in making estimates of economic losses. ....Start by going to p. 551 of the Fourth NCA report Vol. II. This section concerns the increased mortality due to higher temperatures. In case there is any question concerning the importance of this section, Hsiang et al 2017, Fig 5., shows that premature mortality constitutes about 75% of the economic costs of climate change. So, this section is extremely important. (Hsiang, who has no educational or professional training in economics, is mentioned 33 times in the NCA report.)....The following are the economic “experts” cited directly in this section. Surprisingly, most are also not even trained in public health. How can you estimate the economic loss of premature death with no credentials in economics or in public health????... (list of people)"
Incorrect. You have only listed a few of the people involved in the section on heatwaves and related matters. Your references in this section are namely 161, 162 ,168 and they relate to a preliminary paragraph that only discusses the physical science as follows: "The projected increase in the annual number of heat wave days is substantially reduced under a lower scenario (RCP4.5) compared to a higher scenario (RCP8.5), reducing heat wave intensities161,168 and resulting in fewer high-mortality heat waves162,168 without considering adaptation ".
You have ignored the rest of the relevant sections on the economics of the heatwave issue that starts "Labor Productivity Under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), almost two billion labor hours are projected to be lost annually by 2090 ..." and numerous references in these paragraphs including 157, 160, 167, 169 and others. A quick scan of the bibliography indicates these include economics research institutes and the like.
S Hsiang is not an economist , however the other contributors to his paper include economics expertise and other experise as follows:
Solomon Hsiang1,2,*,†, Robert Kopp3,*,†, Amir Jina4,†, James Rising1,5,†, Michael Delgado6, Shashank Mohan6, D. J. Rasmussen7, Robert Muir-Wood8, Paul Wilson8, Michael Oppenheimer7,9, Kate Larsen6, Trevor Houser6
1Global Policy Laboratory, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
2National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.
4Department of Economics and Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
5Energy Resource Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
6Rhodium Group, New York, NY, USA.7Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
8Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, USA.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:48 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Can we move this to the appropriate thread? This one is about electric aviation.
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markpittsusa at 08:26 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Where are the economists (and health experts)?
I cannot answer all the scurrilous charges leveled at me at once (ha-ha, just kidding), so I will take a piecemeal approach to keep the discussion manageable.
This comment concerns my contention that economists are severely under-represented in making estimates of economic losses. (As you will see, public health experts are also conspicuously absent.)
Start by going to p. 551 of the Fourth NCA report Vol. II. This section concerns the increased mortality due to higher temperatures. In case there is any question concerning the importance of this section, Hsiang et al 2017, Fig 5., shows that premature mortality constitutes about 75% of the economic costs of climate change. So, this section is extremely important. (Hsiang, who has no educational or professional training in economics, is mentioned 33 times in the NCA report.)
The following are the economic “experts” cited directly in this section. Surprisingly, most are also not even trained in public health. How can you estimate the economic loss of premature death with no credentials in economics or in public health????
(from references 161, 162, & 168 for section 14 of Vol II):
These are my Preliminary findings - please correct me if I’ve made any errors:
K.W. Oleson (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics, or public health)
G.B. Anderson (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics)
Benjamin Jones (yes, an economist)
Seth A. McGinnis (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics, or public health)
Benjamin Sanderson (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics, or public health)
Claudia Tebaldi (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics, or public health)
Brian C. O’Neill (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics or public health)
J. Gao (NO apparent professional or educational training in economics, or public health)
So only 1 in 8 “experts” on estimating the biggest part of the economic impact of climate change is an economist. So, why are the economists (and public health experts) missing in action?
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory and baiting rhetoric snipped.
Please clean up your game. -
markpittsusa at 08:23 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
Summary:
I asserted that climate science often ignores the experts. This happens when the experts in economics (and other social sciences) are ignored in favor of non-experts, particularly climate scientists.
Other commentators on this site strongly opposed my view.
I used the example of the economic loss estimates of climate change in the Fourth NCA report. I showed that only 1 in 8 referenced researchers in fact had training and experience in economics (or even public health).
I also pointed out that the work of a recent Nobel Laureate in economics who had worked in exactly this area was ignored in the NCA report. Similarly, the work of other less prominent economists in this area was ignored.
The commentators who opposed my view have been unable to provide the names of any participating economists to refute my argument.
Conclusion:
Check and Checkmate
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering and empty rhetoric snipped.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
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markpittsusa at 08:21 AM on 22 October 2019A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel
@All, Please see specifics concerning my problems with the Fourth NCA report. (Moderator - Was I locked out for the last 24 hours?)
Moderator Response:[DB] You were not locked out from making comments in this venue.
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nigelj at 05:52 AM on 22 October 2019Tipping Points: Could the climate collapse?
ilfark2, good points and nicely time lined. This is my take on the same theme: there are numerous possible tipping points and while scientists have some time frames on them and have worked hard to understand them, there are uncertainties and unknowns . Scientists would only need to be dramatically wrong on one of the tipping points for humanity to have a serious problem, because they all have significant implications. And with so many tipping points the possibility of error increases. It all suggests use of the precautionary principle.
It's about the implications of the risk. You might take a risk if there was uncertainty but the implications were not too serious, but we only have one planet and some form of run away warming or abrupt climate change can't be ruled out. My gut says climate change is serious and I trust my gut. If the science on tipping points is not 100% certain what else have we got but our instincts and subliminal thought? It doesnt make sense to say lack of 100% certainty suggests we do nothing, not when the risks are this high.
Now what are the costs of mitigation, because if they are so high that they send us back to the stone age, that would not be much use to us. Maybe we would take the risk and ignore the tipping points. But the costs of mitigation will not send us back to the stone age or anywhere near it. So all the evidence favours mitigation and with urgency.
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