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nigelj at 19:19 PM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
Postkey @18, while it's fair comment that mineral reserves are of course limited, the numbers you quote on mineral reserves do not describe the complete picture, and they vastly underestimate reserves. The information you quote is based on known land based reserves of these materials at current prices and current quantities extracted.
It's almost 100% certain more discoveries will be made, and there are many more known reserves that are not currently economic to extract, and the data you quote omits billions of tons of each of these metals dissolved in sea water (and several have already been extracted in experimental operations at reasonable cost).
We are not going to run out of metals this century or next century, even at higher use rates than presently, and of course metals can be recycled almost forever. There are enough minerals for solar and wind power and electric vehicles etcetera and other applications. List of some of the minerals in sea water and their concentrations.
"Altogether, there are some 50 quadrillion tons (that is, 50 000 000 000 000 000 t) of minerals and metals dissolved in all the world’s seas and oceans. To take just uranium, it is estimated that the world’s oceans contain 4.5-billion tons of the energy metal."
Of course we have to be sure not to waste resources and to get population growth rates down, but population growth is falling in many places anyway.
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Postkey at 18:10 PM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
'The problem for the various proposed green new deals – in which massive state investment in the deployment of non-renewable renewable energy-harvesting technologies halts global carbon emissions while simultaneously ushering in a forth industrial revolution – is that those same precious metals (and many more rare resources) are an integral part of the technologies that are supposedly going to save us. Indeed, platinum and palladium are not even particularly rare (although they are expensive to extract). At today’s rate of consumption there is more than a century of reserves of these metals. However, deployed at the rate required to electrify transport and decarbonise electricity generation and we will run out of reserves in just twenty years. Not that this will ever happen – although not for the reason mainstream economists believe. Other mineral resources essential to the green new deal would be gone long before the platinum and palladium are gone. For example, reserves of zinc, chromium and gold will be gone in just two months at GND levels of use; with silver, nickel, copper and cobalt reserves being consumed within a year at GND levels of consumption. As a group of scientists at the UK National History Museum warned earlier this year:
“To replace all UK-based vehicles today with electric vehicles (not including the LGV and HGV fleets), assuming they use the most resource-frugal next-generation NMC 811 batteries, would take 207,900 tonnes cobalt, 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate (LCE), at least 7,200 tonnes of neodymium and dysprosium, in addition to 2,362,500 tonnes copper. This represents, just under two times the total annual world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three quarters the world’s lithium production and at least half of the world’s copper production during 2018. Even ensuring the annual supply of electric vehicles only, from 2035 as pledged, will require the UK to annually import the equivalent of the entire annual cobalt needs of European industry.
“The worldwide impact: If this analysis is extrapolated to the currently projected estimate of two billion cars worldwide, based on 2018 figures, annual production would have to increase for neodymium and dysprosium by 70%, copper output would need to more than double and cobalt output would need to increase at least three and a half times for the entire period from now until 2050 to satisfy the demand.” 'consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2019/09/21/the-petty-crime-that-kills-the-green-new-deal/
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nigelj at 16:08 PM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
Sorry I have repeated some points by DB. His comments were not there when I pushed submit. But we appear to see it somewhat the same way.
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nigelj at 16:05 PM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
markpittsusa @13
"Take the cost estimates for going carbon neutral by 2050 coming out of the UK and the US. For the US, (emitting about 15% of world carbon), Sander’s price tag is $16 trillion. "
I tracked down your numbers to this article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/22/climate/bernie-sanders-climate-change.html
(Excerpt)"Mr. Sanders said in an interview that his proposal would “pay for itself” over 15 years and create 20 million jobs in the process.
This cost estimate of $16 trillion is the cost for the GND in total. Spread over 30 years to meet the Paris Accord 2050 deadline you mentioned this is approximately $500 billion per year and this is 2.5% of Americas gdp per year (not far off the numbers I quoted elsewhere from The McKinsey report). You say we have to pay for the third worlds mitigation so this would be double this so make it 5% of gdp per year which is still quite a small number.
You mention mitigation costing $100,000 - $125,000 being the median family income, so dividing it by thirty years and splitting the difference equals approximately $4,000 year. The median income in America is $60,000 year to give some context (and remember this will be increasing year on year). For you to then suggest mitigating climate change would " For the median family, that means home foreclosures, kids not going to college, medical care foregone, no vacations, and night jobs to supplement family income" is obviously not correct. $4,000 year is what average people routinely spend on discretionary spending on entertainment, alchohol, and flash cars etc. There is no need for the draconian cuts you suggest, although some sacrifices would be needed - but some clever budgetting and wasting less could mean little real impact on people.
Now it would be tough on low income people, but we could compensate them with some governmnet income support.
Please note: you have made a huge assumption that all of this cost of mitigation would be paid for by families by cutting their spending. Much of it could be paid for in trimming government spending slightly across the board, or a tax on the corporate sector. Other alternatives include borrowing and programmes like quantitative easing. So it would certainly cost families less than $4000 per year.
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Doug Bostrom at 14:52 PM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
Further to Mark's remarks, I'll just point out that $112,500.00 divided by 30 years is about $4,166 per year.
Due to the bulging inequality problem described by Piketty and others, for many in the developed world that's quite a bit of money and the problem bodes to become worse failing some changes in policy. But for a lot of others it means no more than repairing rather than purchasing a bit more often, thinking hard about whether $600 every two years for a phone upgrade is more important than making the world safer and more habitable, whether it's truly necessary to change televisions to the latest model etc. It's not an existentially threatening amount of money.
Meanwhile, comparisons with what underdeveloped nations can and should pay are problematic, considering that (for instance) there's a single coal plant in Europe that emits as much CO2 in a year as does the entire country of New Zealand in a year. Responsibility for this problem varies widely. Portraying the burden of paying for the mess we in the developed world have made (and have very much enjoyed making) as somehow unfair because bystanders can't afford to participate in the cleanup job is maybe not a useful approach. Analogies abound.
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markpittsusa at 14:22 PM on 10 October 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #40
@nigelj 4
Two major problems with the Our World in Data analysis you mention, as I see it:
The first problem is that the analysis is very partial. Take the example of electric cars and their potential associated carbon savings. No where in the analysis do they include the cost of the zillion solar panels needed to power those cars, or the major upgrade in the national electrical grid, or the hundred of millions of lithium batteries that must be created (then disposed of). All these omitted, but necessary, associated activities are hugely carbon intensive. A similar argument could be made for most of the other items on their list. It you leave out important factors, you can get any answer you want.
The second problem is exactly the problem that the authors themselves point out: “To do this [create abatement cost curves], we first have to assume a ‘baseline’ of what we expect ‘business-as-usual’ policies and investments would be. This is done—for both costs and abatement potential—based on a combination of empirical evidence, energy models, and expert opinion. This can, of course, be challenging to do; the need to make long-term predictions/projections in this case is an important disadvantage to cost-abatement curves.”
In English, this means that a hand full of experts at a consulting firm using various models and historical data calculate what potential savings are available to families and businesses from various energy savings investments, and net then those against the upfront costs. This of course is ridiculous. No committee of experts knows enough about hundreds of millions of families and businesses to make this assessment, and their models and historical data aren’t going to help much.
People and businesses don’t make green investments simply because they Don’t pay off. People and businesses understand their own situation a hundred times better than any group of experts ever will.
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markpittsusa at 13:42 PM on 10 October 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #40
@nigelj 5
Take the cost estimates for going carbon neutral by 2050 coming out of the UK and the US. To decarbonize the UK (emitting about 1% of world carbon) the estimates are £0.8 to £1.0 trillion. For the US, (emitting about 15% of world carbon), Sander’s price tag is $16 trillion. Scaling these up to the world level, gives at least $100 trillion in costs. That’s more than one full year’s world income (at about $88 trillion).
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:38 PM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
nigelj@9,
Further to your observation that the use of a discount rate is partially based on the unjustified belief that the future will be better with increased wealth (unjustified because the current global economy is clearly unsustainable, and unsustainable things have no future). That is correct. But there are other considerations in the building of a discount rate. It can also be unethically based on evaluations of people's willingness to wait for personal benefit or sacrifice personal potential benefit to help others.
And your observation that the expectation is that the future will always be better by some means including new technological development is also correct. But it is essential to be aware that Technological Development has produced a lot of harmful unsustainable activity. And that was starting to be very clearly understood by global leadership in the 1960s, triggering the global collaborative pursuit of improved awareness and understanding that developed into the 1972 Stockholm Conference and everything that has followed.
The fact that much of the current global economic activity has developed through the past several decades to be reliant on undeniably harmful and unsustainable activity, in spite of global leadership understanding that it is harmful and unsustainable, has to give any serious ethical person reason to doubt their developed methods of evaluating the future of things.
The people still trying to hold onto unsustainable beliefs about the future, and their related unsustainable perceptions of deserving their way of living and status relative to others, are destined to not have much of a future for their beliefs. But, tragically, the stories made-up by people under the disguise of being Helpful Ethical Authorities and believed by easily impressed people can compromise and delay the understood to be required corrections (it has for more than 30 years).
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markpittsusa at 13:23 PM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
Let’s be realists. The real climate issue is cost. Everything else (including the discount rate) is just talk.
Take the cost estimates for going carbon neutral by 2050 coming out of the UK and the US. To decarbonize the UK (emitting about 1% of world carbon) the estimates are £0.8 to £1.0 trillion. For the US, (emitting about 15% of world carbon), Sander’s price tag is $16 trillion. Scaling these up to the world level, gives at least $100 trillion in costs. That’s more than one full year’s world income (at about $88 trillion).
But, the third world really can’t afford to forego a year’s income. So the first world (meaning roughly North America, Europe, Japan, and Australia) must pay a lot more - 2 to 2-1/2 times their proportionate share relative to GDP and carbon emissions.
So, now we’re talking about the first world spending about two to two and one-half years income. For the median American family, that’s $100,000 to $125,000 .
For the median family, that means home foreclosures, kids not going to college, medical care foregone, no vacations, and night jobs to supplement family income.
This is why most people are not clamoring to solve the climate problem.
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nigelj at 12:27 PM on 10 October 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #40
markpittsusa @3
"The real issue is Not whether or not there is climate change. The real issue is where to get the $100+ trillion to fix it. And what other goods and services are we going to do without."
You dont say how you arrive at that number and over what time period it applies.
I found this interesting study on the issues:
ourworldindata.org/how-much-will-it-cost-to-mitigate-climate-change
"If we utilized all of our <€60 per tonne abatement opportunities to their full potential (which is an important assumption), McKinsey estimates the total global cost (to fully mitigate the climate problem) to be €200-350 billion per year by 2030. This is less than one percent of the forecasted global GDP in 2030."
I'm not sure what that number would be for this year, but assuming the global economy doubles in size by 2030 it would be around 2% of gdp right now and falling as time marches on to less than 1% by 2030. Anyway its a number to think about as a starting point.
Now obviously 2% of the worlds total economic output suggests not all that much has to be sacrificed. Small cuts spread over everything and you would hardly notice, particularly in rich countries. We could do without so much military spending, luxuries, large homes and cars, air travel, etc and this alone would obviously get us our 2% per year without needing to cut the essentials like sufficient food (half the population is overweight anyway), and health and education services. Obviously this is a rough analysis and ignores poor countries, but I trust the point is clear. It is a rough first approximation at the problem. I challenge you all to do better, and show your work.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:46 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
nigelj@9,
No worries. I appreciate how challenging it can be to swim through the stories being told, especially with the powerful biases that the developed socioeconomic-political systems promote. My guiding principle through, and safely getting back out of, that murky endeavour is attention to actions that help to achieve and improve on the Sustainable Development Goals (like the great work done by SkS, a sincere statement, not looking for likes).
My objective is improving awareness and understanding. Though my MBA gives me a reasonable starting point for issues like the discount rate, as I mention, it is actually my interest in Fair Trade and the establishment of understanding like the Sustainable Development Goals that most significantly improved my awareness and understanding. And my thoughts and concerns regarding the future of humanity are open to improvement, but not compromise, by anyone's input (no MBA required to share helpful understanding regarding discount rates).
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nigelj at 09:18 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
markpittsusa @7 , I don't know enough about that group of 100 economists to know whether they are truly representative. Anyway my response to OPOF shows some of my concerns about the use of discount rates. And as others point out, let's stick with what Picketty says and not his political leanings. Most economists will have political leanings and strong ones.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:06 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
markpittsusa@7,
I take issue with being dismissive of presentations of information by the likes of Piketty because they have a "...political agenda that goes far beyond climate control."
The issue is limiting the harm done to the future generations and developing sustainable improvements, not climate control. And it is actually part of the collective of requirements that have been globally accepted as the current best understanding, open to improvement (not compromise), of what is required for the future of humanity - The Sustainable Development Goals.
The identified acceptable climate impact limit appears to be pretty well established at 1.5 C (including that level being understood to be the required impact limit by global leadership though the lack of corrective action through the past 30 years has made a 2.0 C impact limit appear to be 'more pragmatic - Political speak for compromising what is understood to be required'. Beyond that value, 1.5 C, the science is entering the realm of significant potential for feedback leading to unexpected higher levels of warming impact and less certainty regarding the nature of the consequences.
The likes of Nordhaus doing an evaluation 'to determine that the Fair amount of warming is higher than 1.5 C' is ethically flawed because it compromises the required correction.
In addition to being ethically compromising, those evaluations claiming acceptability of warming above 1.5 C are done without acknowledging the uncertainty of potential for higher warming and more significant consequences (which become less relevant as they happen further into the future because that is what discounting does - they are very real in the future, but incorrectly less relevant in the minds of people today).
Without rigorous science establishing a solid understanding of it being acceptable to have warming impacts that would be projected to create a 2.0 C warming (or warmer) it is very questionable to state that the discount rate evaluation 'done rigorously - whatever that can possibly mean' has determined the proper/fair level of acceptable warming.
To make the case another way, if the evaluation was done with the same discount rate 30 years ago, it would have established a lower level of acceptable warming because of the different starting point. And if it is done 10 years from now with a less than sufficient level of corrective action between now and then the 'acceptable level of warming impact' would be deemed to have "increased - magically - wonderfully - absurdly".
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nigelj at 09:06 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
OPOF, please dont take my comments on the discount rate as meaning I'm comfortable with it in principle because I'm not. I share your concerns. The use of a discount rate to put a price on carbon looks crude to me.
I think your dangerously faulty bridge structure analogy makes some sense. Using your analogy you shouldn't discount the cost of fixing a bridge and do a rough patch up job, on the belief advances in medicine will reduce the impacts of an accident. There is a difference in applying discount rates to encourage the best use of funds and assuming the economy will grow etcetera, and life safety issues especially when long future predictions are needed.
As far as I can see, a discount rate assumes the wealth generated by future generations will allow them to both adapt and mitigate climate change by some future enhanced technological process, and a high discount rate assumes a lot of wealth. We cannot assume either of those things, so any discount rate should be zero or very low. I admit I'm a little out of my depth because I haven't formally studied economics so stand to be corrected.
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Doug Bostrom at 08:42 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
Timh, thanks for that great reference:
Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis?
And it's open access. :-)
Mark, I think it's arguably the case that economists set boundaries on acceptable notions of discount rates; too far from conventional wisdom raises eyebrows. With the sensitivity we're speaking of (measured down to 1/100ths) their hypotheszing (as in the case of Nordhaus and Stern with alternative offerings based on conjecture) may well affect the "real" world.
For what it's worth, reading Pikkety suggests that he's political only inasmuch as he's got a policy agenda, or that is to say his arguments are not politically motivated. Operational policy is determined largely in the political arena, so it's possibly easy to confuse a disagreement over effective policy as being political disagreement. We probably all agree that everybody should be fed, clothed, housed, given a fair go, these ideas transcending politics. Piketty illustrates a path of reasoning leading to different policies in support of those goals. Changing policy means changing arenas from research to practicum, hence politics. With "politics" seemingly being overly equated to "partisan" in the public mind, it's too often the case that policy proposals are evaluated based on who is speaking rather than what is being said. We must be careful to listen. When we do, we often obtain useful synthesis of ideas, aka "bipartisan agreement."
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markpittsusa at 08:12 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
@nigelj 5 . Thank you for your thoughtful comments. You are absolutely right in that I should have said “the discount rate is chosen by economists among market-determined rates.” There are several market-determined rates, and economists choose among them. My point was that discount rates do come from market sources; they are not the result of somebody’s economic research (as many people seem to believe).
As for the right rate, the median opinion of the experts you cite is 2.0%. The Stern report uses an average rate of about 1.4%. So, the economists you cite are closer to Nordhaus than Stern.
Finally, it is useful to note that many of the economists strenuously arguing against Nordhaus (e.g. Piketty) have an openly stated political agenda that goes far beyond climate control.
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markpittsusa at 07:41 AM on 10 October 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #40
The real issue is Not whether or not there is climate change. The real issue is where to get the $100+ trillion to fix it. And what other goods and services are we going to do without.
Everything else is just talk.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:04 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
The way I presented my thoughts @4 is what I am working on. The ethical unacceptability of applying discount rates to evaluations of the acceptability of future negative consequences to Others has been written about by many people through the past several decades.
One of the clearest ways to present the thought is the risk of nuclear waste containment failure. Nuclear waste remains very harmful for thousands of years. The failure of such a feature resulting in future deaths is equally bad no matter how far into the future the failure occurs. But many people believe that the failure happening during their life-time would be worse, and it happening near them even worse.
In addition to that flawed short-term geographically limited, but to be expected, way of thinking, a 'discount rate' evaluation would say that as long as the containment holds together long enough to reduce the discounted future cost to something near zero, the point in time when the evaluation essentially determines that future deaths are irrelevant (almost certain to be beyond the end of life of grandchildren), there is no requirement for the containment to last longer than that, which is obviously absurd.
The same goes for discounting the future costs of a failure of the current generation to act in a way that is "almost certain to achieve" the understood required correction (1.5 C maximum impact). The future costs of failing to achieve the required limit of impact is unacceptable, no matter what a discounted evaluation indicates "Is Fair".
Of course the real challenge is that it is the combined actions of the current people that make the future. The future people have no say. Getting people to sacrifice a developed perception of status can be hard work. It is easier to be Popular and more profitable by making-up appealing excuses, even though that is undeniably a highly unethical thing to do.
The global resurgence of Nationalist Populism and its reliance on misleading marketing appeals to passionate self-interest (greed and intolerance of Others) can be seen to be a reaction to the development of the understanding of the required corrections and changes of direction of development that have been so robustly established and presented in the Sustainable Development Goals.
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nigelj at 06:53 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
markpittsusa @3, thank's for the comment. Now you mentioned the market sets the discount rate, yet a simple search on this issue shows economists 'choosing' a discount rate related to the climate issue, so I'm not sure what to make of your statement, other than to say it sounds like you are wrong. The following is most interesting. Its from WUWT which is not my preferred source of information, but is worth listening to in this instance. In summary its clear the discount rate can be chosen, and Nordhaus discount rate is too high according to numerous economists.. Make sure you read all the excerpt I have copied and pasted.
wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/04/is-nordhaus-discount-rate-really-too-low/
(excerpt) "In reference to the co-winner of the 2018 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, the earlier WUWT article states that “Dr. Nordhaus’ model suggests a ridiculously low discount rate of about 2.5%”. This critique is motivated by comparison with the rates of return offered by fixed income securities (“The minimum discount rate is currently usually 3%, about what you can get in US 30-yr Treasuries”) and other corporate rates (“In the oil & gas industry, we use a 10% discount rate when valuing proved reserves”). Using a higher discount rate would lead to a lower Social Cost of Carbon, meaning that fewer mitigation initiatives would receive policy support.
"My co-authors and I have recently published (Drupp et al., 2018) the results of a survey of almost 200 economists who have expertise in intergenerational social discount rates (discount rates to be used by governments when, for example, determining climate change policy). From this we can conclude that, as far as most economists in the field are concerned, Nordhaus’ rate is too high and not too low."
"First, it is important to note that the 2.5% rate that is attributed to Nordhaus in the earlier WUWT article is a growth-corrected discount rate, which “equals the discount rate on goods minus the growth rate of consumption” as given in the caption to the figure in that article. For a non-growth-corrected rate, Nordhaus recommends a much higher value. In a related article he states that “I assume that the rate of return relevant for discounting the costs and benefits of climate-sensitive investments and damages is 5% per year in the near term and 4.5% per year over the period to 2100” (Nordhaus 2014, p.280). Yet in our survey, the median response from our participants for the appropriate very long-term social discount rate is just 2%."
The following are also higly relevant and discuss problems with Nordhaus's approach in general, and rather high discount rate. The third article is by Thomas Picketty:
liu.se/en/news-item/liu-forskare-riktar-skarp-kritik-mot-ekonomipristagare
www.nytimes.com/2006/12/14/business/14scene.html
theconversation.com/thomas-piketty-climate-change-and-discounting-our-future-30157
Clearly Nordhaus is but one economist and it would be unwise to rely on the views of but one economist regardless of what prizes he has won.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:06 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
I have an MBA as well as being a Professional Engineer. However, my experience with the Sustainable Development Goals and Fair Trade have given me a perspective that I believe few share, but everyone should seriously consider. (These thoughts are still works in progress, but I am retired now and I am investigating University level engagement on this issue - but admittedly more focused on the need to limit and correct misleading representations regarding all of the Sustainable Development Goals - not just the Climate Action Goal).
Discount rates are valid when comparing "alternative opportunities". The key concept is "opportunity". It is misleading to apply them to evaluations of corrections of developed activity. They should apply to improvement opportunities, not correction requirements.
Engineering is full of this type of evaluation. The consideration of future maintenance costs vs. up front costs of different ways of building "a new opportunity" is one of those applications.
But the climate science identified issues are mainly "Corrections of what has already developed" as well as some "New Opportunities to consider and compare".
In the engineering world, something already built that has been discovered to be incorrect "gets corrected rapidly". And only the options that achieve the required correction rapidly (with items being kept from being used until the correction is completed) get compared. A less expensive fix that does not achieve the correction objective does not get considered and no discount rate gets applied. And the cost of the correction is whatever it is. There certainly is no expectation that the correction will be obtained "at no cost". And any attempt to compromise the required correction to 'save costs' gets justifiably laughed out of the room.
Another way to say that is that all of these climate impact option evaluations that are "correction scenarios" incorrectly apply the discount rate by claiming it is an attempt to be fair. It is actually an attempt to compromise the required correction in order to reduce the cost today". In engineering, when something is harmfully incorrect there is no balancing of the Owner's costs with the future impacts of a less than required correction. That same rationale would be the only rational way to evaluate the required corrections of what has currently developed.
The discount rate has a role, maybe applied to the evaluation of alternative ways of achieving less than 2.0 C impacts. However, I believe the science says that the required objective is 1.5 C impact limit. That would limit the use of discount rates to evaluating the merit of alternative actions that would result in impacts being less than 1.5 C.
The result of the above understanding is Powerful Political Resistance to acceptance of any information that indicates a Correction is required. That is what has now developed. Powerful misleading marketing to resist the improvement of awareness and understanding of the harmful unacceptability of the developed Status Quo. Applying discount rates is part of that misleading marketing game, getting popular support for the idea that the actually required correction can and should be compromised - to be fair.
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markpittsusa at 05:33 AM on 10 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
@nigelj. Discount rates enable us to compare costs and benefits that occur at different points in time. It doesn't make sense to have one discount rate for bond payments, another for investments in education, another for investments in health care, and another for investments in clean energy. They are all really the same future that we are discounting, and so should be the same (risk-adjusted) discount rate. And thus, different investments and different returns over different periods of time can all be compared. The market (not economists) set these rates.
The most recent economist to win the Nobel Prize (William Nordhaus) won it for his work on climate change. He rejects the low interest rate (used for example in the Stern report.) He also thinks the target should be 3.0 to 3.5C of warming; not 1.5C. I don't see how we can start now rejecting the views of the experts. -
RedBaron at 02:21 AM on 10 October 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
@327 hedron,
You said, "But humans do remove co2. It's called farming."
It is true that some kinds of farming remove CO2 from the short carbon cycle, which does indeed offset some emissions. However, as an average, most farming is actually a net source, and those who do offset emissions a decided minority, especially when it comes to cropping.
We could change that and many have recommended it.
Why Farmers Are Ideally Positioned to Fight Climate Change
But it is not the current reality we face today. Right now there just are not enough regenerative organic farmers to counterbalance even the industrial farmers, much less the rest of the industrial world's emissions.
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Tom Dayton at 02:13 AM on 10 October 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
hedron, the crops resulting from farming quickly are consumed by people or animals, and if animals then those animals are consumed by people, and whatever is not consumed decays. The carbon taken up by those crops thereby quickly returns to the atmosphere, minus an inconsequential fraction that gets buried essentially forever. Note that most of what gets buried decomposes and releases carbon back into the atmosphere.
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hedron at 01:12 AM on 10 October 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
>humans add extra CO2 without removing any.
But humans do remove co2. It's called farming.
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MA Rodger at 21:01 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
Concerning the claims up-thread by CThopmspn of the basis for a 97% consensus being "all cherry-picking, symmatic gymnastics, inconsistent methodologies and all pretty dishonest," I note the main object of his criticism Doran & Zimmerman (2009) is only linked to its 'abstract' (or actually its first paragraph. The full (but brief) paper describing the survey is on-line here.
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Eclectic at 20:18 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
CThompson ,
insight is not your strong suit, apparently. Your claim of familiarity with carbon isotopes etcetera, is not congruous with your dismissal of mainstream physics & biology.
Just as (by analogy) someone who claims familiarity with mathematics . . . yet who alleges that 2+2=3 . . . is someone who is a tad less expert than he supposes.
But perhaps, CThompson, you can achieve some credibility by staying on topic. [Short musical interlude here, while orchestra plays Pride of Erin B . . . and readers wait for you to also mention Galileo, as well.] You have been repeatedly asked to say something substantive about the scientific consensus, to back your "beliefs". But you have produced nothing, so far.
A good start would be, if you can name a list of some credible scientists who have produced some evidence that the mainstream science is seriously incorrect. (And you must show what that evidence is ~ not just handwave at something unspecified.) If at all possible, please list a sufficiency of names to demonstrate that these alleged contrarians exist in numbers way beyond 1% of climate scientists. Would 20% "climate-skeptical" genuine climate scientists be achievable for you? Otherwise, surely your consensus claim falls flat on its face.
Hint: don't bother to use the delusional citizen-scientist crackpots, such as Lord Monckton, Dr Tim Ball, or (the late) John Coleman . . . 'cos they ain't no scientists !
And bear in mind, that the evidence is even more important than the exact percentage of contrarians. And that is where the contrarian scientists make a double Fail ~ their numbers are shrinking and their hypotheses [cosmic rays; 100-year oceanic cycles; Lindzen's "Iris" ; etcetera] have failed the reality test.
CThompson, the consensus exists because the evidence is clear.
I can see that you believe what you want to believe ~ and I was never under the illusion that you would be convinced by anything factual.
BTW, CThompson, you can educate me on one point ~ what is the meaning of the word "symmantic" which you use so often e.g. the "symmantic gymnastics" you mention in your last paragraph of #841 . The OED failed to list the word. Is it a new term for the latest display trick by that amazing young gymnast Ms Simone Biles ?
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CThompson at 16:23 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
Even though I know this comment likely won't even see the light of day as it will be construed as "inflammatory", even though yours is likewise and remains, by making assumptions about my education and knowledge, I'll give this a try anyway.
Eclectic at 12:42 PM on 9 October, 2019
CThompson ,
Interesting, that you don't recognize your own anger. Anger is the underlying emotion in almost all "contrarians" ~ anger that the mainstream science shows that the Earth is Round rather than the politically-correct Flatness which the contrarians desire.
Actually, I believe the "politically-correct" description would apply to the Earth is Round crowd, in your analogy. Further, there was never even such thing as anyone believing the world was flat and, that is a myth, just like the 97% claim.
Perhaps the isotopes Carbon-12 and Carbon-13 are not so very obvious to you, CThompson, but that is all the more excuse for you to go inform yourself - educate yourself - about carbon sources, carbon dioxide, the carbon cycles, photosynthesis & enzymatic affinities, etcetera. Then you will see why you are wrong, and the climate scientists are right.
Actually, I'm quite familiar with carbon-12 and carbon-13, as well as carbon sources, carbon dioxide, the carbon cycles, photosynthesis and enzymatic affinities. But, this is exactly why I can never take seriously those who advocate global warming/climate change. Their condescending, smug attitude which makes them believe they're the most brilliant people on the face of the planet and no one should even dare challenge them. I thought this discussion was supposed to be about the so-called "consensus", rather than your assumptions about my level of education or my knowledge. You have no idea what my level of education is or what level of knowledge it is I have. And, while my one comment is snipped and flagged as being "inflammatory", your assumptions concerning my education and my knowledge, which could also be construed as "inflammatory", is allowed to remain. But, what can I expect? If one is all for the global warming/climate change hysteria, one can be as inflammatory as one wants. If one isn't, they're shut down.Now, why don't you elaborate a little further on what it is carbon-12 and carbon-13 have to do with anything? If you're suggesting someone can determine what carbon dioxide it is that comes from the tailpipe of a Dodge Dart or that which comes from a decaying tree or that which comes from a forest fire has anything to do with carbon-12 or carbon-13, I believe you are mistaken.
How many climate scientists are there? Certainly more than 79. Depending on definition, there are hundreds . . . thousands . . . tens of thousands . . . even more. There is no precise cut-off between climate scientists and "non-climate" scientists. There is a spectrum ranging from the most expert (who do climate research & publish papers in reputable scientific journals) through to scientists whose area of expertise is only distantly related to climate. And on through to the almost-famous "wood engineer" who, many years ago, signed the laughable Oregon Petition of 19,000+ people possessing a science degree, who denounced AGW. (Denounced AGW, based on almost zero expertise in the field of climate science.)
Relevantly, CThompson, the consensus studies show that the more climate science expertise a scientist has, the more likely he is to agree with the consensus.
That is why, CThompson, you have failed to present an impressive list of names of (sane and credible) climate scientists who are not in the 99% consensus. Because they are way less than 1%. And if, from such a potential list, you subtracted :- the "Emeritus" elderly dodderers, the political extremists, the fundamentalist religious extremists, and the delusional citizen-scientist crackpots . . . then you would have close to zero real scientists left on your list. That's why the consensus is more like 99% than 97% .
Actually, I find the term "climate science" and "climate scientists" to be a misnomer in the first place as I don't believe for a second they know as much about the climate and those mechanisms which drive it as they THINK they know. I don't think "climate scientist" even fits. I believe, for one to be a "climate scientist", one would have to be proficient in almost all, if not all, principles of science. And, I don't believe there's anyone in the world who's smart enough to be proficient in ALL principles of science. They'd have to know how cosmic forces impact our climate, they'd have to know how plants and animals impact our climate, they'd have to know how the many forces that shape this planet impact our climate and, multitudes of other things. That they simply average out temperatures for a 30 year period or precipitation levels over a 30 year period and call themselves "climate scientists" doesn't seem to shed true light on what is needed to understand the climate and what drives it. Now, lastly, your anger is quite clear. Anger is what compels you to make assumptions about my education and knowledge and anger compels you to make smug and condescending statements and acting like no one should even dare challenge you because you're a brilliant know-it-all and there's absolutely no way you're wrong. You know who else believed they were know-it-alls? People who challenged Erin Brockovich. She had no formal legal training and everyone else thought they were so much smarter than her. But, of course, we all know how that turned out.
(P.S. Just so you know, I don't have to present to you anything, to believe what I believe. But, you're certainly going to have to do better than presenting symmantic gymnastics, as demonstrated in the Doran study, to convince me. See, things are the way they are and, if you want people to believe you in order to initiate change, it's you that has to convince them, not the other way around. I don't have to present anything to believe what I believe, you've got to present something convincing to me, to make me believe differently. Thanks.)
Moderator Response:[DB] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
Moderation complaints, inflammatory tone and baiting snipped. -
Tom Dayton at 13:45 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
CThompson: Your six-step definition of science is naively simplistic, narrow, and exclusive. To support it you need to show us photos of astronomers experimentally creating alternate versions of neutron stars. Experimentation is but one useful tool in the toolbox of science. Climatologists have done a huge number of experiments on thousands of aspects of climatology, going all the way back, for example, to Eunice Foote in 1856.
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Eclectic at 12:42 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
CThompson ,
Interesting, that you don't recognize your own anger. Anger is the underlying emotion in almost all "contrarians" ~ anger that the mainstream science shows that the Earth is Round rather than the politically-correct Flatness which the contrarians desire.
Anger is an emotion leading to Motivated Reasoning ~ where even some very intelligent people (such as yourself) manage to bamboozle themselves with rhetoric & false logic & semantic confusion . . . and manage to deny the "bleeding obvious".
Perhaps the isotopes Carbon-12 and Carbon-13 are not so very obvious to you, CThompson, but that is all the more excuse for you to go inform yourself - educate yourself - about carbon sources, carbon dioxide, the carbon cycles, photosynthesis & enzymatic affinities, etcetera. Then you will see why you are wrong, and the climate scientists are right.
How many climate scientists are there? Certainly more than 79. Depending on definition, there are hundreds . . . thousands . . . tens of thousands . . . even more. There is no precise cut-off between climate scientists and "non-climate" scientists. There is a spectrum ranging from the most expert (who do climate research & publish papers in reputable scientific journals) through to scientists whose area of expertise is only distantly related to climate. And on through to the almost-famous "wood engineer" who, many years ago, signed the laughable Oregon Petition of 19,000+ people possessing a science degree, who denounced AGW. (Denounced AGW, based on almost zero expertise in the field of climate science.)
Relevantly, CThompson, the consensus studies show that the more climate science expertise a scientist has, the more likely he is to agree with the consensus.
That is why, CThompson, you have failed to present an impressive list of names of (sane and credible) climate scientists who are not in the 99% consensus. Because they are way less than 1%. And if, from such a potential list, you subtracted :- the "Emeritus" elderly dodderers, the political extremists, the fundamentalist religious extremists, and the delusional citizen-scientist crackpots . . . then you would have close to zero real scientists left on your list. That's why the consensus is more like 99% than 97% .
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CThompson at 10:45 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
Estoma at 21:29 PM on 25 August, 2019
I've been lurking here at Skeptical Science and Real Climate since their inception. One of the first things I learned was about the natural carbon cycle. Put that part aside. The emmissions being talked about are the ones created by fossil fuels. That CO2 has a different signature from the natural CO2.
Uhmmm...emissions by fossil fuels ARE natural CO2. Emissions from fossil fuels are being released in many different forms. When a field is plowed, emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels are released. When a street is being paved, emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels are released. When tree leaves deccompose, emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels are released. Emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels aren't released exclusively when someone punches the gas pedal on an automobile or runs an engine in an industry. There are likely a limitless number of mechanisms for which emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels are released. All carbon has to do is mix with oxygen and you have CO2. When a dust storm happens, there's like emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels being released. So, I don't know where you're getting this CO2 from fossil fuels as being somehow different than so-called "natural" CO2. And, no, there is no different signature between CO2 from fossil fuels and so-called "natural" CO2. CO2 is CO2, whether it comes from the tailpipe of a 1972 Dodge Dart or out of a volcano or, out of the smokestack of industry or, from a forest fire. It's all carbon and oxygen. CO2...carbon atom, two oxygen atoms. There's no distinctive markers that describe where it comes from.
Moderator Response:[DB] "there is no different signature between CO2 from fossil fuels and so-called "natural" CO2"
Incorrect. Scientists know conclusively through its distinctive isotopic signature that all of the postindustrial rise in atmospheric concentration of CO2 is from human activities.
Per Rubino et al 2013,
"as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the ice go up after 1800 AD, the carbon isotopic composition of that same carbon dioxide goes down. The change in the isotopic composition is somewhat startling - the atmosphere is happily chugging along at around -6.5‰ and then nosedives to -8.5‰ by 2012"
And
"There is really no way around it. Since the dawn of the industrial age, humans have taken carbon locked in organic material and released it into the atmosphere. That burning added huge volumes of carbon dioxide (in 2014, 44 billion tonnes) that all has highly negative carbon isotopic composition. Carbon dioxide goes up, the carbon isotopic composition goes down, all recorded in the ice at the poles."
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2014/
https://skepticalscience.com/From-eMail-Bag-Carbon-Isotopes-Part-1.html
https://www.skepticalscience.com/From-eMail-Bag-Carbon-Isotopes-Part-2.html
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50668
"These declines in δ13CO2 and Δ14CO2 (called the Suess Effect; Keeling, 1979; Suess, 1955) are linked to the burning of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels, such as the vast coal deposits of the Carboniferous period, are composed of the organic remains of organ-isms (mainly plants) that lived millions of years ago. Plants preferentially take up 12C over 13C so have low δ13C (e.g. Farquhar et al., 1989), with most oil deposits having values of −32‰ to −21‰ and coal deposits −26‰ to −23‰ (Sharp, 2007). Consequently, CO2 from fossil fuels contains on average 2% less 13C per mole than atmospheric CO2 (Keeling, 1979). Extraction and burning of these fossil fuel reserves releases this 12C-enriched carbon back into the atmosphere, leading to a decline in δ13CO2. Old carbon from fossil fuels is also virtually free of 14C (Keeling, 1979), since the time between being deposited in the fossil record and burning is many thousands of half-lives of 14C, so the release of this old carbon will lead to a decline in Δ14CO2 in the atmosphere. δ13C changes in the atmosphere have been vital in allowing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to conclude there is a ‘very high confidence’ that the dominant cause of the observed increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere since the 19th century has been the human burning of fossil fuels (IPCC, 2013)."
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CThompson at 10:15 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
Eclectic @834
Why get myself angry about the Doran study?
First, who says I'm "angry"? Second, if they have to overstate the reality with symmatic gymnastics with respect to the Doran study to try and make it appear more dramatic than what it really is, why should I not believe all the rest of them aren't doing the same? They come off with this "97%" figure, hoping people won't actually look at the study and realize that only 79 climate scientists were actually participating in the study and that is pretty much an infinitesimally small number compared to the total number of climate scientists that are in the world. I call that dishonesty and shady. And then, other people take that 97% and try and make it out as if that 97% is indicative of the opinions of the total number of climate scientists in the world when, in reality, it's only the opinion of 75 out of 77 climate scientists in the world. Third, I'm not buying your claim that it's 99%, that there is overwhelming consilient evidence nor, that there are hardly any "climate-skeptical" scientists remaining. Again, this is all likely derived from the same shenanigans pulled in the Doran study. We know they pulled something similar in going through supposed "peer-reviewed" abstracts in the Oreskes, 2004 study which was criticized for overstating the level of consensus acceptance within the examined abstracts so, this pretty much seems to be a pattern and I just don't find myself taking it seriously. It's all cherry-picking, symmatic gymnastics, inconsistent methodologies and all pretty dishonest.Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering and accusations of impropriety snipped.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Daniel Bailey at 09:47 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
There has long been a consensus among climate scientists, based on multiple types of scientific evidence, that greenhouse gas emissions are altering the Earth’s climate. The strength of the scientific consensus on climate change has been established by numerous research studies employing a variety of methods, including surveys of scientists (Carlton et al., 2015; Doran & Zimmermann, 2009; Rosenberg et al., 2010; Stenhouse et al., 2014; Verheggen et al., 2014), analysis of public statements in scientific assessment reports and multi-signatory statements about climate change (Anderegg et al., 2010), and analysis of peer-reviewed studies about climate change (Cook et al., 2013; Oreskes, 2004). These peer-reviewed studies demonstrate a consensus among climate science experts that humans are causing global warming. Estimates of the extent of the consensus among experts—climate scientists who publish peer-reviewed climate research—vary between 90 to 100%; as of 2016 the best estimate, based on a number of studies, was 97% (Cook et al., 2016).
NASA’s climate change website presents the state of scientific knowledge about climate change. This includes a webpage on the scientific consensus about human-caused climate change, which captures the robust nature of the scientific consensus by citing multiple peer-reviewed studies from research groups across the world. This approach for assessing and portraying the veracity and consensus of a research result, in this case the scientific consensus on climate change, is consistent with NASA’s scientific research portfolio – namely the reliance on up to date peer-reviewed scientific literature.
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
Here’s a recap of the published research articles appearing in peer-reviewed refereed journals examining the ever-strengthening, consilient consensus present in the primary literature:
A. Oreskes et al 2004 - The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Science 03 Dec 2004, Vol. 306, Issue 5702, pp. 1686; DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1686B. Doran and Zimmerman 2009 - Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
EOS, Volume 90, Issue 3, Pages 22–23, doi: 10.1029/2009EO030002
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2009EO030002C. Anderegg et al 2010 - Expert credibility in climate change
PNAS, vol. 107 no. 27, 12107–12109, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107
https://www.pnas.org/content/107/27/12107.fullD. Rosenberg et al 2010 - Climate change: a profile of US climate scientists’ perspectives
Climatic Change, August 2010, Volume 101, Issue 3–4, pp 311–329; DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9709-9
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-009-9709-9E. Cook et al 2013 - Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
Environmental Research Letters, 15 May 2013, Volume 8, Number 2; doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024F. Verheggen et al 2014 - Scientists’ Views about Attribution of Global Warming
Environ. Sci. Technol., 2014, 48 (16), pp 8963–8971, doi: 10.1021/es501998e
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es501998eG. Stenhouse et al 2014 - Meteorologists' Views About Global Warming: A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014, Volume 95 No. 7, pp 1029–1040, doi: 10.1175/ BAMS-D-13-00091.1
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00091.1H. Carlton et al 2015 - The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists
Environ. Res. Lett. 10 (2015) 094025, pp 1–12, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094025
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094025/metaI. Cook et al 2016 - Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming
Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 048002, pp 1–7, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002/metaAlso linked from NASA’s Scientific Consensus page, but worthy of repeating, a list of scientific organizations that hold the position that Climate Change has been caused by human activities and actions.
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
http://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.htmlIn essence, there aren’t any (as in none, not even one) national or international scientific societies disputing the conclusion that most of the warming since 1950 is very likely to be due to human emissions of greenhouse gases.
To sum: the science underlying and affirming the human-causation is based on over 170 years of research, research integral to the science forming the structural framework of our modern world today.
From weather balloons to airplanes, from Pershing-2 to cruise missiles guidance and delivery systems, from CD & DVD players to microwave ovens, and from cellphones, GPS locators, HD TVs and the Internet, the radiative physics of CO2 pervasively form the bedrock underpinning our technology today.
And the ever-strengthening, consilient consensus present in the primary literature merely acknowledges that.
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Eclectic at 09:33 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
CThompson @833 ,
Why get yourself angry about the Doran study?
Any online survey, taken strictly on its own, is not necessarily worth much. However, the Doran study is not an outlier :- all of the ["non-online"] consensus surveys give pretty much the same result of overwhelming consensus.
Even a 97% figure is a bit out of date in 2019, and is now actually well over 99%.
As I mentioned in a couple of posts [above] : the thread here about consensus is really just an indirect way of examining the mainstream climate science. There are hardly any "climate-skeptical" scientists remaining.
Forty years ago, there was space for scientists to be skeptical about AGW ~ but the current state of "overwhelming consilient evidence" is so clear-cut that "contrarians" have nothing left apart from empty rhetoric to support their so-called position/positions.
That is why hardly any "contrarian" scientists remain.
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timh18468 at 08:52 AM on 9 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
There seems to have emerged a near-consensus among economists that a declining discount rate should be used--going toward zero over time, that is. https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/8/2/145/2888825
Helpfully, with a declining discount rate, the results are not quite as sensitive to the initial rate chosen.
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CThompson at 08:12 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
That you guys bring in the Doran study and this 97% BS is just laughable and renders any of your claims irrelevant and not to be taken seriously.
This Doran study was an online survey in which 10,257 earth scientists were asked to participate. Of those 10,257 asked to participate, 3,146 actually completed the survey. And, out of those 3,146, 79 were climate scientists that had also published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change . And, this is where they get their "97%" from, that 76 of 79 had answered "risen" to question 1, "When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?" and, 75 of 77 answered "yes" to the question 2, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" So, apparently, not even all of the 79 individuals in that category even answered question 2 but, instead, only 77 answered it. Also, surely, since I'm quite positive there are WAY more than a total of 79 climate scientists in this world? What's 76 out of 79 climate scientists saying anything even really mean? That's like taking a town that has 500 people in it and saying the opinions of three people in that town is relevant and of significant importance.
And, since I'm sure all the other studies cited are essentially the same as the Doran study and consist of, likely, essentially the same scientists that participated in the Doran study? I find the only "myth" here is the 97% claim.
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory snipped.
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nigelj at 07:52 AM on 9 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
Ecomomists obviousy do useful work, but how do they come up with a 5% discount rate related to the climate issue? How can anyone confidently predict such a high and optimistic rate so far ahead in time? Reliable long term prediction has not been the economist's greatest strength.
Interest rates are very low currently with little sign this is going to change. High returns have been in speculative assets, a thing that cannot be guaranteed longer term. The physical realities suggest it's going to be very difficult maintaining an ever expanding economy that would support high returns.
While I'm no economist, some things start to scream out as being dubious even to laypeople. Perhaps some expert can put me right. Perhaps I'm naive, or missinterpreting the discount rate, or haven't seen the light.
Of course as the article suggests there is also merit in deliberately choosing a lower discount rate. Heavens above are we allowed to do that?! Will it offend some economist?
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william5331 at 05:08 AM on 9 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
I wonder if, in the future, as the Arctic Ocean accumulates more heat and more open water, if we might see a sort of Walker cell develop between the ocean and the ice sheet. Warm moist air rises off the ocean, bathes the ice sheet, causing the water vapor to condense out in dew and cooling the air which rushes down the slope back to the sea. Remember water vapor is lighter than air (60%) so the removal of the water vapor from the air augments the cooling to make the air in contact with the ice even heavier. Then you have latent heat. From vapor to water it is 540cal/g while from water to ice it is 80cal/g. In other words, a kg of water condensing out of the air gives out enough heat to melt a little over 6 kg of ice.
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Brockagh at 19:02 PM on 8 October 2019The science isn't settled
Regarding the plane falling out of the sky analogy... If you had to get on one of two planes, would you pick the one with a tem percent chance of survival or the one with a 90 percent chance of survival.
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nigelj at 10:24 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
OPOF @4, yes its always worth a try rebutting climate denialism and explaining the bigger picture. Of course denialists will never or rarely change their minds in public in an internet discussion, because nobody likes to loose face, and this creates an impression denialists never change their minds, but some of them probably do change their minds. Here is an example of some who have:
www.theinertia.com/environment/heres-how-the-evidence-changed-a-climate-change-skeptics-mind/
www.theguardian.com/science/2012/jul/29/climate-change-sceptics-change-mind
Of course PC is also quite right. You get a lot of that.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:10 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
nigelj and Philippe,
My response is: By being aware of the fuller story you can respond quicker to anyone who tries to use the cherry-picked claim (or any other misleading marketing tactic). Rapidly correcting someone by introducing them to information they were unaware of, or did not want others to be aware of, can be very effective.
Of course, some people will just get angry. That is a common response to being corrected. But, as is often pointed out in comments here, others may be watching who benefit from the interaction. They get to see who can be more trusted to tell the fuller story and who tries to promote or maintain a misleading made-up belief.
That knowledge of the fuller story can also be used to determine how much an information provider may have been influenced by Edward S. Herman's Propaganda Model presented in the book and movie "Manufacturing Consent".
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:18 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
There is no answer because there is no good way to deal with those who argue in bad faith and whose only guiding principle is "anything goes."
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richieb1234 at 08:48 AM on 8 October 2019It's the sun
MA Rodger: Thanks for the additional information.
My only point is that the "myth" thermometer on the left of the front page is a key part of the SS website's message. When a viewer clicks on one of those myths, they should find a blatant statement of the myth from a climate denier. The BBC quote doesn't pass that test.
The quotes above from Whitehouse also don't show he is claiming that "it's the sun." In these quotes, Whitehouse is apparently claiming that the sun was a big factor in past climate changes, but not recent changes. That is an accurate claim.
I just think there must be a better quote somewhere to illustrate this myth.
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nigelj at 06:34 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
OPOF @1, I was thinking exactly the same thing. Its a perplexing problem because science is complex like this, but this provides so many ways denialists can cherry pick and attack. Yet is the science is not fully and openly discussed in all its complexity and nuance, that's not good either. There does not seem to be an easy answer to this dilemma, other than the slow unfolding of increasingly obvious climate change, that makes the denialists look increasingly stupid.
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Estoma at 06:03 AM on 8 October 2019Climate's changed before
Thank you Danial for the graphs. You come up with lots of good stuff.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:31 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
Another detailed presentation that is likely to have cherry-picking applied by climate science deniers and delayers.
The reported Surface Mass Balance is all they need to, want to, see and hear about. It indicates that Greenland ice is increasing, as long as the fuller story is never sought out.
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allan savory at 01:39 AM on 8 October 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
I have only now become aware of your criticism of my work addressing global desertification and climate change. I seriously value and share your motive as a very sceptical scientist myself, but am sorry you did not treat this more seriously. In what is frankly extremely sloppy scholarship you state dogmatically - " Quite simply, it is not possible to increase productivity, increase numbers of cattle and store carbon using any grazing strategy, never-mind Holistic Management." If you are serious, as I am, about global desertification and climate change, then please do not judge sixty years of work published in the 3rd edition of the textbook Holistic Management, on a 20 minute talk covering only one main point. That point being that only livestock and the holistic planned grazing process (or better when developed) can now save civilization as we know it.
I have no intention of debating you here when you have not even read the book. For your interest when you do and we engage in discussion, please take note of the policy chapter. Firstly that will get you realising the Holistic Management framework that enables us to manage complexity at any level from household to governance is not some sort of grazing strategy as you believe. How would you use any grazing strategy to analyse any or all of the US government’s natural resource and other policies?
As you read, you will learn that far-sighted officials in the USDA commissioned me over two years to put some 2,000 scientists and others through a week of training in the use of the Holistic Management framework. Those came from all land management agencies, faculty members from US universities, World Bank, USAID and more and they brought hundreds of their own policies to the training. They, not me, analysed their own policies and found not one that would work and would not lead to unintended consequences. One group in training made a unanimous agreed statement we published –“We now recognize that unsound resource management is universal in the United States”. I am sure you recognize that such analysis is simply not possible with what you have mistakenly assumed is Holistic Management of which you are critical.
Further information for you. In the training of that large sample of scientists from some with basic degrees to Professors and others with two or more higher degrees, we allowed an hour every day of the week for them to concentrate entirely on finding any flaws they could in either the logic or science in Holistic Management framework that enables us for the first time to manage complexity. Early on this helped mainly clarify what people were battling to grasp and also highlighted a couple of logical flaws thus enabling those thousands of scientists to assist us in fine-tuning the framework, and the Holistic Planned Grazing process used when livestock are required to reverse desertification. And as I explained in the TED Talk you criticise, only livestock can now save civilization as we know it. Even if you forget entirely about our destabilisation of the climate and think only of global desertification that alone has destroyed many civilizations and now poses a global threat. And if you or any scientist you know anywhere in the world can explain how we could prevent desertification, or reverse it, using all the tools available to us in our reductionist management then please do so. As you know, we only have technology, fire or conservation (resting the environment to allow recovery). Other than that all the world’s scientists have ever come up with is using technology to plant trees, shrubs or grasses. Two of these fire and resting the environment lead to global desertification and no technology even imaginable can ever restore rapid biological decay over about two thirds of the world’s land every year. So if you have some other tool humans could use please help us by telling the world. Only today have I been photographing the severe desertification taking place in the truly vast teak forests around me in Africa – larger than some countries in Europe – and wishing I had the armchair critics to explain what point there would be in planting more trees in such dense desertifying forests.
Please read the book and then discuss if need be what you find wrong in the Holistic Management framework or its application to manage complexity in any walk of life. And by the way here we have done what you say is impossible and we have the most amazing regeneration of the land after 16 dry years with this the worst in memory and we did this by increasing from 100 head of cattle to 500 and now are having to increase to 1,000 just to keep pace with the production of the land. So what you say is impossible is being done and you are welcome any time to visit. Have a look at this one minute video https://youtu.be/ntzCnpYhM3I -
Daniel Bailey at 01:17 AM on 8 October 2019Climate's changed before
"I was unable to find temperature graph for the world outside of the Arctic that went beyound 2000"
That can seemingly be an obstacle, but global reconstructions are becoming more common, depending upon the time period you're interested in. For example, these are useful summaries (sources used listed on each):
As always, clicking on the images should make them bigger.
Images from Bruce Railsback's Fundamentals of Quaternary Science.
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MA Rodger at 00:38 AM on 8 October 2019It's the sun
Further to #1272.
The link to that "latest analysis".
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MA Rodger at 00:37 AM on 8 October 2019It's the sun
ricieb1234 @1271,
Do note that the author of the BBC item quoted in the 'Myth' is David Whitehouse who is now known to be a fully paid-up member of the denialist squad. His take-away message in 2004 was:-
"This latest analysis shows that the Sun has had a considerable indirect influence on the global climate in the past, causing the Earth to warm or chill, and that mankind is amplifying the Sun's latest attempt to warm the Earth."
Yet this "latest analysis" informing the 2004 BBC article by Whitehouse concludes with the warning:-
"we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades."
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Estoma at 23:58 PM on 7 October 2019Climate's changed before
I figured the genisus was "from the strong & steady rise with a clear ongoing causation by CO2." What flumoxed me was that the warming had occured at light speed; world wide from what I read. I didn't realize that had been any case like this during this inter glacial period. I'll have to add a cavet from now on when I make the unprecedented warming statement.
It appears that today's temperature is still higher than it was 13,000 years ago but I was unable to find temperature graph for the world outside of the Arctic that went beyound 2000.
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