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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 95201 to 95250:

  1. Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    Isn't this the classic Prisoner's Dilemma in another form? Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated the prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies for the prosecution against the other (defects) and the other remains silent (cooperates), the defector goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act? The position of co-operation and defection is equivalent to the reduce or not reduce position. I have heard it also posed as the co-operation go two retreating soldiers under fire, where one must provide covering fire while the other runs. If they co-operate, their survival chances are maximum, but for an individual the selfish solution is to keep running and let his partner engage the enemy. Matt Ridley, who has turned into a climate change denier, has a good book on the Prisoner's Dilemma called The Origin of Virtue.
  2. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    damorbel - The vast majority of solar energy (shortwave) passes right through the atmosphere and warms the Earth. As Dikran Marsupial and I have both said, the atmosphere is warmed by the Earth, and hence the heater/block/wood/ice analogy holds, not your warming of a room through a blanket. The atmosphere is basically transparent to SW radiation, emitted by the sun based on it's temperature. The IR radiation emitted by the Earth, on the other hand, is almost completely blocked by the atmosphere. The atmosphere does not block sunlight from the surface, and for the purpose of discussion the sunlight could be coming from underground to warm the surface. To take it back to the analogy - the heater wires could run though the piece of wood, but they don't interact with it. Energy flows from Sun/surface/atmosphere/space, in that order.
  3. rustneversleeps at 09:11 AM on 1 March 2011
    Visualizing a History of CO2
    Nicely done! And, oh, what the heck... Here is another creative use of Mind Heist/Inception as the score to a video. :-p
  4. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Re #416 KR you wrote:- "And the atmosphere is a radiative insulator between the Earth and space." Yes KR that is true. But the atmosphere is also between the Sun and the Earth, just like a blanket with a corpse underneath it is between the (ambient or Sun) heat source. If the Earth was itself a heat source then putting a (partially) reflecting layer round it would, like for a living body, keep the heat in and the temperature would rise. But the same (partially) reflecting layer would keep some of the Sun's radiation out. The temperature of the Earth is thus not changed by the albedo, just the rate of heating and cooling.
  5. Rob Honeycutt at 09:05 AM on 1 March 2011
    Preference for Mild Curry
    Sphaerica.... I have to say, I think you are exactly right. I get the sense that Curry is just not quite clear on what she's gotten herself into. It's a little like she's gone into the den of the lion saying, "Aw, you just have to make friends with the poor beast." Her whole current series of posts on "Hide the decline" is a perfect example. Given the broad spectrum of research on climate change, I can't think of a more NON-issue than that. I also can't think of one other issue that climate deniers more quickly glob onto (execpt maybe Al Gore). But there she spent the better part of a week hashing that out on her blog to the chorus of a couple thousand comments. You'll have to pardon my non-scientist perspective here but Peter Hadfield has a really great, simple video titled The Scientific Method Made Easy where he points out that, it doesn't matter if someone gets it wrong, bad science will always be supplanted by better science. (I realize that's probably overly idealized, but for the sake of argument...) So, even if Mann and others had completely cooked the data, ultimately it wouldn't even matter. If they are wrong their work will disappear into obscurity. And it's not like this is the cornerstone of the entire TAR and AR4. It's one piece of information out of thousands upon thousands. So, here Curry is hammering away on how "she" was deceived blah, blah, blah. I just want to tell her to get over it. Either publish a real response to the work or do some better science of your own. The only thing she accomplishes building this "bridge" to the deniers is to fuel the fire they've built and isolate herself from the scientific community. As far as I can see, she's done nothing at all to improve the situation, in fact I think she's made it worse. And I think you're right, a decade or so down the road she is going to very much regret having made the decisions she has.
  6. Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    Michael, we're not as big as Spain but SA produces 15% of its current power supply from wind. It would be more if we hadn't had to abandon a really big wind project because of grid deficiencies in that area. I see no reason why other states couldn't do the same. We have abundant coal and gas supplies so we're not using wind because we lack other resources. We've just made a better choice.
  7. Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    There is something odd about the chart, but I don't agree with paulgrace @5. The chart details funds remaining. So the on-diagonals (the Yes/Yes and No/No) look correct. What doesn't look right is that countries that unilaterally do reduce emissions cost them $7 (the blue 3 in the top row and red 3 in the bottom). The preceding text suggests it should cost them $4 or possibly $3.
  8. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Re #413 you wrote:- "1) Does an object have to be at a specific temperature in order to emit energy?" I am not being pedantic here! Objects do not emit energy, they emit radiation. The radiation they emit depends on the temperature of the body. Energy may or may not be transferred to other bodies even deep space; dependent on their temperature; energy may be transferred to the body in the paragraph above, again dependent on the temperature of bodies in range (deep space included) it all depends on relative temperature. You wrote:- "2)Is an object receiving energy selective to receiving energy only from objects warmer than them?" Does the first answer work here also? To sumarise: all bodies above 0K emit radiation; all bodies absorb radiation regardless of temperature; energy transfer takes place in the direction high temperature to low temperature - always!
  9. Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    The chart is correct.
  10. Daniel Bailey at 08:51 AM on 1 March 2011
    Various estimates of Greenland ice loss
    As discussed here, Greenland’s glaciers double in speed: The Yooper
  11. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    damorbel - The sun is directly analogous to the 1KW heater - as I posted here the solar spectra passes through the atmosphere to the Earth, affected primarily by Raleigh scattering (not GHG's), and warms the surface. The analogy is completely correct, the energy flow is from the Sun to the surface and out to space through the atmosphere. A small amount of sunlight heats the atmosphere directly (your block heater touches part of the piece of wood in the analogy); that changes only in detail, not in essentials. And the atmosphere is a radiative insulator between the Earth and space. The surface of the Earth has an emissivity of ~.97 to .98 in IR, while the effective emissivity of the Earth and atmosphere to space is ~0.612; the insulation. And that insulation makes the planet warmer than it would be without the greenhouse gas atmosphere.
  12. Dikran Marsupial at 08:33 AM on 1 March 2011
    2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    damorbel@415 wrote: "The Sun/Earth arrangement has the heat source (the Sun) outside the Earth/atmosphere system." what you don't appear to realise is that the atmosphere is largely transparent to the suns visible and ultraviolet radiation, which directly warms the Earths surface not the atmosphere. The atmosphere is warm not because it absorbs a lot of IR radiation from the sun, but from the IR radiated by the surface that has been heated by absorbing SW radiation from the sun and by conduction/convection. Thus the atmosphere is acting as an insulator, insulating the warm surface from the cold of space. This has been pointed out to you at least twice on this thread.
  13. Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    @ #1 Matt J is right, the chart is backwards. Yes and No should be reversed in both cases.
  14. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Re #411 you wrote:- "Take instead a block of metal, heated on one side with 1KW of power, sitting on the other side on a huge block of ice. It will reach some dynamic equilibrium temperature, say 100 degrees." But your system has a 1kW heat source on one side (of a block) and you add some insulator (the wood) to the other side. Of course the temperature will rise. The Sun/Earth arrangement has the heat source (the Sun) outside the Earth/atmosphere system. Although your model is set up with the Earth as a heat source this is not the case. My best model is the blanket. A blanket keeps you warm because it stops your body heat escaping, as a result you are warmer than the bedroom. If you die, your body heat stops and your body (now a corpse) cools down to room temperature. If the room temperature increases (because the Sun is making the room hot) the corpse under the blanket will get warmer too because it follows the room temperature. There will be a little delay in the change of the corpse's temperature because of the insulating effect of the blanket and the thermal inertia of the corpse but after a while thermal equilibrium will be restored. It is the same with the Sun/Earth system. The Sun streams out photons with a mean temperature of 5780K. But, because of the inverse square law, the density of (5780K) photons drops with distance (photons do not lose energy with distance - just the number/m^2 changes with distance), so the (average) temperature at a planet is dependent only on the distance from the Sun. Even if the planet reflects most of the Sun's photons (i.e. it has a very high albedo) that will only slow down the rate of heating by the Sun, the planet will just get to its final temperature more slowly (than a black body planet). PS the high albedo slows down the rate of cooling also. PPS the albedo works like a blanket, and just like MFI (Multilayer Foil Insulation).
  15. Various estimates of Greenland ice loss
    Is it me or melt started around 1995? A consequence of the impredictable non-linear behaviour of climate?
  16. michael sweet at 07:47 AM on 1 March 2011
    Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    I posted a similar response here. In order to control CO2 all countries have to cooperate. That is only possible if developed countries with the largest past emissions lead the way so the developing countries can follow. Spain generated 16% of their electricity from wind last year!! If all developed countries did that it would really start to make a difference.
  17. CO2 was higher in the past
    alecpiper. You trust Easterbrook? Have a look at: here and particularly here. Of course, dont take a warmist blog word for it. Pull the data, check the references (especially the metadata) and see for yourself.
  18. Bob Lacatena at 07:33 AM on 1 March 2011
    Preference for Mild Curry
    Curry is going to be reviled 20 years from now as the scientist who abandoned her profession, her beliefs, and her integrity in order to become a professional concern troll for denialism. Variations on this story line wait for Watts, Inhofe, Monckton, and any number of others. It's going to make for fun reading, and they all have it in their destiny. They can lie and distort all they want now, but the truth, when it arrives, will be "undeniable." End of story. When we reach a point where the public begins to panic, because in spite of all of their clever arguments, temperatures continue to unequivocally rise and extreme events become more and more common and alarming, then I expect Curry to try to salvage her reputation in the eyes of history (along with any number of other high profile deniers) by back pedaling, insisting that she was just being open minded, and that she really was trying to build bridges, and that she's sadly misunderstood and being unfairly victimized. I'd love to be at a major climate science meeting come that time, and to hear the intense silence that falls when she enters the room.
  19. Climate sensitivity is low
    > total atmospheric window is simply the quantity No, it's not a quantity. It's a term defined in various ways in papers published in science journals. It's never defined as a quantity.
  20. Various estimates of Greenland ice loss
    Jeff T, Rignot et al (2011) is in press at Geophysical Research Letters
  21. Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
    "Vast riche$ await anyone who can scientifically break the chain of evidence & show the AGW is a non-worry" Lets to heart of what you are taking issue with in above statement and also the question of whether AGW is result of biased evaluation of data. I think DB is right in his statement and here is why. The motivation to find that AGW is non-worry is immense for a scientist (not a technologist though as you point out). 1/ Its hard to make your name with me-too science 2/ A Nobel prize awaits your successful effort 3/ Given the half-baked stuff funded by fossil fuel fronts, its got to be easier to get money there than from cut-throat world of conventional funders. Furthermore, since mainstream scientist employers are not accessing this money on whole, you can have the money yourself instead of salary. 4/ At a personal level, who wants AGW to be true? (Yes, there are luddites and atavistic dreamers but these arent the scientists I know). Its also important to understand the difference between "lobby science" and conventional funding sources. There isnt conventional funding for "pro-AGW" science nor should there be for "anti-AGW" science. There is funding for finding out what we dont know. The funding provider is indifferent as to whether the result is supportive or not of a given theory. On the other hand, can you imagine Cato or SPPI being pleased with results that support conventional climate theory? I also know that FF has very considerable internal research capacity. However, it is choosing to fund lobbying and disinformation rather than pursue an alternative theory. My take on climate science from an outsider is that an alternative theory is going to be tough. To get that Nobel prize will require a theory that accounts for all current observations and yet lets us off the hook. For my 2c, the unknowns that are worth pursuing are: 1/ A hidden negative feedback that will reduce ECS. Clouds and aerosols are favourite but face the problem that you need a mechanism that is working now or in future but didnt work in the past as low sensitivities make paleoclimate and 20th Century climate extremely difficult. 2/ A hidden natural energy flow that somehow mimics the signature of GHG. Any others? You can hope on those, but it isnt the way to bet or vote.
  22. Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    This is a fascinating subject, and that's where the real challange lies. I recommend again the work of Elinor Ostrom, who recently won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for her work on this subject. I've read two of her books, and I recommend both, being the first more math, and the second more descriptive of the institutions: - Rules, Games and Common-pool resources - Governing the Commons
  23. Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    The tragedy of the commons is the core concept facing civilization. And it leads one to observe the greater tragedy as the human failure of understanding and implementing change.
  24. Monckton Myth #15: Tragedy of the Commons
    I don't know what readers Dana had in mind that would recognize the term "Nash equilibrium". And the table he gave in that context made even less sense: he said "Either side can only tie or win if they don't reduce emissions, and they can only tie or lose if they do reduce emissions." BTW: the notation of the payoff matrix also needs to be explained. For many readers, "7,7" looks like 7 and 7/10, NOT 7 for the US, 7 for Australia. For that matter, where is the equilibrium? The post should point it out explicitly and explain WHY it is an equilibrium. Finally, since, as the Wikipedia article on it points out, the Nash equilibrium DOES often lead to strategies no one would actually implement, since they are both counter-intuitive and on Pareto-optimal. Under such circumstances, the entire discussion of Nash equilibrium does not contribute much in the first place.
  25. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    "I am most interested in what you write but two lines is just a bit too little to give me a proper grasp of your point." An experiment is proposed. You use your understanding of thermodynamics to calculate a result. Result is also calculated by textbook thermodynamics. Results are compared to what actually is observed. If your method fails, then do you concede that your understanding is flawed?
  26. Stephen Leahy at 06:05 AM on 1 March 2011
    Preference for Mild Curry
    @16 Tom, I fear the entire Berkeley effort, even if well-intentioned, will be used as another excuse to delay action until we resolve 'the uncertainty'. Hence funding from Koch who are all about deny & delay.
  27. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    damorbel, Two questions. 1) Does an object have to be at a specific temperature in order to emit energy? 2) Is an object receiving energy selective to receiving energy only from objects warmer than them?
  28. Various estimates of Greenland ice loss
    Jeff T here's the refereed paper, published February 12th.
  29. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    To expand on that - the final temperature the block reaches will be that temperature where 1KW of heat is passing through the wood to the ice. That's when the incoming/outgoing energies balance. The wood (by conduction) will pass some heat to the block, the block (by conduction) will pass a great deal more to the wood, 2nd law duly observed. The final substitution in my example is radiation for conduction.
    Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Added a "be"
  30. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    damorbel - Dynamic equilibrium, with energy flowing through the system, not static equilibrium; you have the wrong system in your example. Take instead a block of metal, heated on one side with 1KW of power, sitting on the other side on a huge block of ice. It will reach some dynamic equilibrium temperature, say 100 degrees. Now put a piece of wood between the block and the ice. The wood will reach a temperature between that of the block and the ice (and in fact will have an internal gradient), but the block (because of the slowed energy loss to the ice) will reach a temperature considerably above 100 degrees. A cooler object (wood) has warmed the warmer object (block) by reducing the energy lost, as that loss is only via the energy difference at the block/wood interface - much smaller than a direct block/ice interface. It has reduced energy loss by its presence, and hence warmed the block. Now substitute sun->1KW heater, Earth surface->metal block, GHG atmosphere->piece of wood, and space at 3K->huge chunk of ice.
  31. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Re #404 KR you wrote:- "Your claim that 'cooler objects cannot warm warmer objects' ignores that energy contribution, and hence breaks the 1st law - the energy from the cooler object doesn't just vanish. That means your claim is incorrect." So are you saying that, if two equal blocks of metal, No1 at 300K and No2 at 320K were put in thermal contact, No2 would be >320K ?
  32. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Dikran - I attempted to address that particular misconception here with spectra, but was ignored.
  33. Dikran Marsupial at 05:31 AM on 1 March 2011
    2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    KR@406 The "he's wrong" post also shows damorbel doesn't understand that the surface is heated directly by the sun, so the "insulation" explanation is perfectly reasonable.
  34. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    My apologies, I first directed damorbel that article in November, if not earlier.
  35. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    MichaelM - I pointed damorbel to that article here, several months ago. His reply? "He's wrong." Hence my comments about intransigence.
  36. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Dr Roy Spencer, contrarian and topic of this recent thread, posted an item on his blog last summer titled "Yes, Virginia, Cooler Objects Can Make Warmer Objects Even Warmer Still" and I thought it might be useful for both damorbel and KR et al. For damorbel it shows a contrarian showing "well, I’m going to go ahead and say it: THE PRESENCE OF COOLER OBJECTS CAN, AND DO, CAUSE WARMER OBJECTS TO GET EVEN HOTTER (sic)". For KR, and the rest, I thought it might be fun to read, in the comments, Dr Spencer trying to do your 'job' but without any reinforcements.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Please refrain from using all-caps. Thanks!
  37. Rob Honeycutt at 04:44 AM on 1 March 2011
    Meet The Denominator
    Les... Obviously, all I can offer you is anecdotal evidence. I have heard from many pro-AGW folks that they also get heavily moderated. And I read comments from skeptics here all day long. Most of us are fairly accustomed to posting on unmoderated sites and have a habit of aggressive commenting. The heavy moderation here requires that we all think before we post. Stick to the science, stick to the topic and keep it civil. If we do that, regardless of our position, our comments won't get deleted.
  38. Preference for Mild Curry
    I would like someone to ask Curry about that 90%/0-10C sensitivity statement, in an arena where she can't dodge the question
    We need to hang on to this, and to trot it out whenever she's quoted as believing we should do nothing. 10C globally implies what? 15C over North America and Eurasia? 20C in the Arctic?
  39. Visualizing a History of CO2
    How about the theme from Benny Hill? It would help point out the craziness of what we are doing to the climate.
  40. Climate sensitivity is low
    Tom, RW1 185 quotes himself. No other source for it. http://www.google.com/search?q=%2Bdecrease+%2Btransmittance+"outgoing+surface+power"+"emitted+spectrum"+"absorbed+by+the+atmosphere"
  41. Visualizing a History of CO2
    Hey all, Thank you for the kind words. I agree with the ending being slightly anti-climatic and I was trying to fix that. I'm only learning how to do some of these things so hopefully as I progress I will be able to fix some of these issues. O Fortuna would be interesting certainly :P
  42. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    For S. Dobbs: http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=arctic+amplification
  43. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    damorbel - The issue with the 1st law of thermodynamics and your formulation is that you are ignoring the energy contribution of cooler objects (such as the atmosphere) to warmer objects (the surface), which increases the total energy in the surface and requires a higher temperature to radiate that energy away. Note that as long as the summed energy goes from warmer to cooler, which is true here, the 2nd law of thermodynamics is intact as well. Your claim that 'cooler objects cannot warm warmer objects' ignores that energy contribution, and hence breaks the 1st law - the energy from the cooler object doesn't just vanish. That means your claim is incorrect. My last comment is upon your intransigent position - you have received a great deal of input on this issue over the last 400 comments here and (looking around a bit) from numerous others over several years. Yet you still seem to think the radiative greenhouse effect violates physics.
  44. Meet The Denominator
    776 Rob Honeycutt: "Consider the moderation here at SkS to be a form of on-the-fly peer review." Yes, but do we have the numbers of how many deleted post where AGW alarmist and how many where AGW anti-alarmist; obviously counting ones which where just off topic as anti-alarmist, and objective and subjective ad-homonym attacks as alarmist? If we don't; what are they trying to hide?!?!
  45. michael sweet at 04:15 AM on 1 March 2011
    Australia's departing Chief Scientist on climate change
    Ken, In the USA deniers often make the argument that if we are the only ones who take action it will make no difference. This despite the fact that the USA has taken no action to reduce carbon emissions while some Europpean countries have taken actions. Spain generated 16% of its electricity in 2010 by wind, that would be 13 of your Ozzie units. Why are you claiming it cannot be done without "shutting down all of our coal mines"? It has been done without hurting the economy. As fossil fuel prices escalate the Spainish look better all the time. It is clear from your numbers that only by engaging all the countries in the world can this problem be truly addressed. If we want the Chinese to take action the developed countries have to lead the way. Your argument that we should wait for the Chinese to lead is simply a call for inaction. The Chinese make the same argument and say the developed countries should lead. Once the developed countries show how economies can function with less carbon the developing countries will follow. We can start with efficiency improvements and then add wind and solar electricity. We will see what the next steps are after we have started.
  46. Preference for Mild Curry
    Lou #24 - I got the distinct impression that Curry's comments with regards to climate sensitivity were no more than her "gut feeling". She provided no support for the statement, and as others have noted, it's a scientifically and statistically indefensible position. It seems to me that a lot of the things Curry writes on her blog, including with regards to 'hide the decline', are based on little more than her 'gut feeling'. It only took me about a half hour of looking through the TAR and AR4 to see that her accusations had almost no merit.
  47. Visualizing a History of CO2
    Robert - that's terrific! Second Alb's suggestion of freezing the last frame. Do you take requests? Carbontracker set to the standard for scary music: O Fortuna!
  48. Peter Bellin at 03:56 AM on 1 March 2011
    Visualizing a History of CO2
    Thanks for doing this; I think it will perk the students up when this is shown in class, or embedded in a course page.
  49. Various estimates of Greenland ice loss
    There are multiple aspects of this post that confuse me. The mass in Figure 1 (Schrama's Figure 2) appears linear in time, with a superimposed annual oscillation. The figure doesn't seem consistent with a mean rate of -252 Gt/yr and an acceleration of -22 Gt/yr^2. If I'm wrong, a segment of a parabola with that slope and curvature ought to fit the data well. I read the paper and the figure doesn't seem to match the text or the tabular data. Please ask Schrama to comment. Rignot 2011 is a pre-print. Shouldn't it be refereed before its results are used here? I think Figure 3 is the mass change rate and the units ought to be Gt/yr. Note that a negative mass loss would be a mass gain.
  50. Visualizing a History of CO2
    Robert-- fantastic work! Is there any way to freeze that last images for a few seconds? Just to let the message really sink in? i found it cutting away immediately also a little anti-climatic. wish I had the skills to do this kind of stuff.

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