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jhudsy at 15:27 PM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
One of my favorite Monckton Myths came from his Gish Gallop "rebuttal" of John Abraham's slideshow. "108. ...that a medieval stained-glass window at Amiens Cathedral in Northern France shows wine- grapes being grown in the region, a feat that is impossible today because it is too cold; the growing of grapes at Hadrian’s wall, also impossible today..." Apart from the fact that there is a winery at "Accomb, Yorkshire, within 5km of Hadrian's Wall." (according to http://www.winelandsofbritain.co.uk/book.htm), does this mean his lordship believes in dragons? After all, there are also stained glass windows with images of the foul beasts! More seriously, is there any proof that the images are of grapes from the region? My understanding is that the image of grapes (and of grape treading) is a rather generic one. -
Marvin Gardens at 15:23 PM on 1 February 2011OK global warming, this time it's personal!
MichaelM and Adelady, Thanks for your civil replies to an honest question. Damage from our flooding is generally compounded by the loss of wetlands, inadequate maintenance of levees, straightening of rivers, and increasing impervious ground cover which greatly reduces absorption rates. All caused directly by man's activities. Rob Painting, You clearly misunderstood my one question aligned with that graph which only goes back to 1840 when we have accurate measurements by gauges of river height. I was not referring to any further back. Is there any research to what was happening in the 1840 to 1900 time period which showed greater frequency (18 floods) and intensity of flooding (8 major)? There were 7 floods between 1900 and 1960 with one tickling the major category. And, between 1960 to current there were 8 floods with 2 being major. So, there was a lull in the middle set of years and then flooding activity picked up again, but never reached the levels of the 1800's. Flood control began in the 60's with improvements being made throughout the recent decades. Any direction on this would be appreciated. And, I am not trying to be rude or insensitive. I lived through the 18 foot storm surge of Hurricane Hugo in 1988. We still don't look the same down there. -
citizenschallenge at 15:08 PM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
Does anyone know if LM has actually followed through on any of his theatric threats to sue? -
scaddenp at 14:45 PM on 1 February 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
That's seaice, not the updated Grace estimates of Antarctic icesheet loss. Doesnt seem like updates published yet (The greenland data seems in advance of publication too). -
David Kirtley at 14:33 PM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
How long before the good lord threatens to sue you? -
peter prewett at 14:11 PM on 1 February 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Antarctic is at:- http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png Peter -
pdt at 13:37 PM on 1 February 2011Sea level rise is exaggerated
I believe the accepted term for the topic of my question is "sea level budget" and the first link given by Google for this is this one, from a website that claims higher atmospheric CO2 is a good thing for us. Seriously, the climate science community needs to figure out how to make sure the first links for searches on climate science are to actual science. -
WSteven at 13:24 PM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
Thank you for taking the time to do this. I doubt it'll convince any die-hard sqeptics out there, but it should prove useful in convincing anybody still willing to think for themselves. -
Karamanski at 12:41 PM on 1 February 2011Heat stress: setting an upper limit on what we can adapt to
Is the wet bulb temperature the same thing as the heat index? Heat indices above 98 degrees Fahrenheit are common around the world. -
David Horton at 12:33 PM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
"Does Monckton have a reputation?? He claims he does, but then it is self proclaimed." Well, yes Ville, but also proclaimed on denier blogs and in shock jock columns an radio shows, and then taken seriously by politicians and the "main stream media" - it's an effortless way to become an expert. The frustrating, the really frustrating thing, about Monckton's approach (and that of several others of his ilk, is the contradictory nature, as John points out, of the arguments. Plimer and Carter's big deal was that climate had changed so wildly and so extremely in the past that the little itty bit of change seen in the last thirty years was nothing to worry about at all. But this of course totally contradicts the Monckton and Lindzen proposition that sensitivity is teeny weeny because negative feedbacks quickly kick in and keep us not too hot, not too cold, just right. Similarly "Mörner who claims it's physically impossible for sea level to rise much above its present rate" is obviously contradicted by the people who suggest that a few mm here, a few there, this century, not enough to be noticed by a middle aged surfer on Bondi Beach, is overshadowed by the huge changes in the past, especially over the Holocene. So which is it Lord M? Bit of a Catch-22 you've got yourself into I'm afraid.Response: It is ironic when skeptics contradict each other like the time Monckton and Plimer stood on the stage together and argued contradictory arguments. Even more ironic is when a skeptic contradicts themself. Eg - Monckton arguing for low climate sensitivity and also stressing how climate has changed in the past. Sometimes in the same article. Of course we have a database of "contradiction pairs", of skeptic arguments that contradict each other. So there's always the option of digging into that data sometime in the future and listing all the times when Monckton contradicts himself. -
adelady at 11:51 AM on 1 February 2011OK global warming, this time it's personal!
As for your rainfall questions. (Remember always there was *no* cyclone in Dec10 or leading up to the floods in Jan11.) "Brisbane experienced its wettest December since 1859" From this Wiki page. It's worth having a quick read just to get the picture of how widespread this series of events was. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%932011_Queensland_floods -
Paul D at 11:35 AM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
Just correct my post no. 6: But then as many have pointed out, including the scientists in the documentary, proving a scientific theory via live debate with or without referring to published papers etc. is bound to produce skewed and unscientific results. -
adelady at 11:34 AM on 1 February 2011OK global warming, this time it's personal!
Marvin. Have a good look at that graphic. There are several mitigation items. 1. One large dam was built in the 60s. The idea being that water storage was needed for the growing population and it would be handy to have the capacity to restrict an 1890's style flood associated with a cyclone. 2. Whoops! 1974 cyclone causes widespread flooding in Brisbane despite the dam. So a newer bigger dam (Wivenhoe) was added to the river system. 3. Sensible city management spends millions and millions of dollars over decades on enhanced storm/floodwater drainage systems for the city and suburbs. 4. Along comes an extremely wet 2010 - soils throughout the various catchments saturated. Then torrential downpours (without any driving force such as a cyclone) devastate large areas in the first weeks of 2011. 5. The dams were managed to avoid and restrict flooding and hold back maximum flow. Eventually there's just too much water. Despite the dams holding back about 3 Sydney Harbours worth of water, Brisbane still floods at close to an 1890s level. But it does so at least a week later than it would have otherwise. If the rain had eased in those last couple of days, there would have been very little flooding. I'm no expert, but that's my reading from the experts I have read. If you can find an alternative explanation for floods of this magnitude in the absence of a cyclone, with a modern city well-managed with drainage systems and massive dams to restrain vast quantites of water, go right ahead. -
Paul D at 11:33 AM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
Does Monckton have a reputation?? He claims he does, but then it is self proclaimed. Actually one thing I got out of that BBC4 programme was the fact that when a nutter works on their own without any guidance (peer review), they crash and burn as far as science goes. But then as many have pointed out, including the scientists in the documentary, proving a scientific theory via live debate without referring to published papers etc. is bound to produce skewed and unscientific results. -
Rob Honeycutt at 11:20 AM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
It almost deserves a url of its own! -
dana1981 at 11:07 AM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
I like the Monckton Myths logo! -
Albatross at 10:59 AM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
JMurphy @2, I would add this to your summary of Monckton: "Anyone who still thinks he is worth quoting as some sort of expert, is obviously uninterested in the truth, science and integrity" -
JMurphy at 10:47 AM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
Very good critique of Monckton on BBC4 this evening, as part of a general look at the so-called skeptics. Available via iPlayer until 6 Feb 11 for those in the UK : Meet the Climate Sceptics, from the Storyville series. (Should be available elsewhere for those outside the UK who know where to look) Anyone who still thinks he is worth quoting as some sort of expert, is obviously uninterested in the truth. -
adelady at 10:43 AM on 1 February 2011Monckton Myths - a one-stop-shop for Monckton misinformation
An excellent idea. Not before time. -
scaddenp at 10:14 AM on 1 February 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
"I enjoy a lively debate" - you mean like at say hot topic.Gratuitous insults and miles of hot-air about people's opinion? I like skepsci as place debate where the moderator's enforce civil discussion and where assertions need be backed by evidence from published research instead uninformed opinion. YMMV but plenty of places for "lively debate". -
Daniel Bailey at 09:29 AM on 1 February 2011An efficient world facts checker - Zvon.org guide to CIA World Factbook
Plain TXT file then (just as easy for me, so if easier for you, so be it).LastNext-to-last question: In your example, you begin each line with the # symbol; is that required, or just something to demonstrate a new row/record? Last question: Unsure as to the DOI's. Can you elaborate on that as well when you get the chance? The Yooper -
MichaelM at 08:19 AM on 1 February 2011OK global warming, this time it's personal!
@42 Here's one form of mitigation :"Wivenhoe Dam was built in response to the 1974 Brisbane flood" -
Marvin Gardens at 07:14 AM on 1 February 2011OK global warming, this time it's personal!
Rob @ 40 What type of mitigation has been done? Is there any record of the amount of rainfall over the drainage basin to compare the 1800's events to 1900's events and on into the 2000's. -
Mila at 06:36 AM on 1 February 2011An efficient world facts checker - Zvon.org guide to CIA World Factbook
#5 1) if you export an Excell spreadsheet as a text file it will suit my needs - I am a Linux user and do not own Excell; I would have to use a third party software and I would prefer not to - work with clean text files is much easier; Excell offers a few export formats so we can try one of these 2) the posts may be located anywhere; I will just need to know the urls -
Daniel Bailey at 05:56 AM on 1 February 2011An efficient world facts checker - Zvon.org guide to CIA World Factbook
@ Mila @ 4 Would the lost posts now linked in the Archive be usable where they are (in the Internet version of the recycle bin) or would they need to be hosted independently of that? As far as the format, would an Excel spreadsheet, if set up like your example above, work? The Yooper -
Rob Painting at 05:42 AM on 1 February 2011OK global warming, this time it's personal!
Marvin @ 40 - But, flooding worse than this has occurred before hasn't it? Definitely, earlier "Hothouse" phases in Earth's past would have seen tremendous flooding, but not during the last few hundred years of European settlement. See here for further information: 2010: A Year of Record Warmth and Weird Weather In short work to mitigate flood events has been partially successful. The 2011 Brisbane Flood would have been far worse otherwise. Yours is clearly an erroneous argument in need of it's own rebuttal. One is in the works. -
Marvin Gardens at 05:16 AM on 1 February 2011OK global warming, this time it's personal!
I am very sorry for what you are going through and can empathize after living through several hurricanes. But, flooding worse than this has occurred before hasn't it?
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Mila at 03:09 AM on 1 February 2011An efficient world facts checker - Zvon.org guide to CIA World Factbook
#3 If you are willing to feed in data I will tweek Zvon RC system to care for Open Mind blog - it would mean to fill Google Documents or a zip file on a stable address with keywords, dates, titles, abstracts, names, and dois. It is nothing complicated, something like: #title:Friday round-up #href:http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/04/friday-round-up-2/ #authors:rasmus #date:24 April 2009 #categories:RC Forum;skeptics ######################################## #keywords: sun galactic cosmic rays #names: Singer, Fred #doi: 10.1002/joc.1651 10.1029/2005GL023621 10.1029/2001JA000507 10.1098/rspa.2007.0347 #oclc: -
Daniel Bailey at 02:43 AM on 1 February 2011An efficient world facts checker - Zvon.org guide to CIA World Factbook
Thanks for this Mila! I've been using the Factbook for more years than I can remember, so this resource will come in handy. Any chance you can do a Zvon.org guide to Tamino's Open Mind blog? (The big problem is the deletion of pre-March 2010 posts, most of which I was able to list in this archive) Thanks again! The Yooper -
D Kelly O at 01:52 AM on 1 February 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
John's Jan 30, 2011 climate article e-mail had a link to a WUWT post about Lindzen's March 11, 2008 note on "statistically significant warming" (link). Here is what Lindzen said 3 years ago:There has been no warming since 1997 and no statistically significant warming since 1995. Lindzen, March, 2008
The addition of 2008-2010 temperature data makes Lindzen's statement invalid. Will he update his statement based on more current data? He could benefit from Tamino's statistical expertise. (here). -
thepoodlebites at 01:01 AM on 1 February 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
Please define "comments that add to the discussion"? The statement seems to have a significant amount of wiggle-room. It has been my experience at skepticalscience.com that the moderator uses off-topic or political to delete anti-AGW comments but allows pro-AGW comments to remain. For example: "A Case Study in Climate Science Integrity" 53.dhogaza at 16:29 PM on 23 January, 2011 Ron Crouch: If governments would only face global warming with the same tenacity that they apply to terrorism. Actually, the current leadership of the Republican Party in the US does ... Problem being they look at climate science as being equivalent to terrorism ... How is the above not political? I enjoy a lively debate but it's not happening here, which is unfortunate.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Moderating is a no-win scenario. The goal is to maintain a certain latitude in adherence to the comments policy. Comments that toe the line without erasing it (in your example, dhogaza was replying to Ron; both commenters were referring to global warming [an accepted fact by the NAS & virtually every scientific body in the world] and lamenting US policy of inaction on it. Contextually OK) are allowed so as to not stifle the dialogue. Pushing the envelope of discussion to include Cap & Trade, which you did, gets seriously off-topic. The mod's are human and sometimes miss things, but overall do a pretty good job here in keeping the flow of the thread dialogue from getting hijacked. I have even gone in after the fact & deleted my own comments that went too far. -
NickD at 00:41 AM on 1 February 2011Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming
Thanks Daniel (The Yooper).Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] You're welcome. And apologies; I forgot to mention there is discussion of the Knox and Douglass paper in this post here at Skeptical Science. My bad. -
thepoodlebites at 00:11 AM on 1 February 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
[ -edit- (complaints about moderation) -edit- ]Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Comments that are on-topic that add to the discussion are never moderated or deleted. Attempts to derail threads with discussion of politics or ideologies or wandering into the wilderness of off-topic land will get moderated. Adhere to the Comments Policy roadmap, be polite when disagreeing, stay on-topic for the thread you are participating on and offer up sourced links for claims and not only will all be well in mod-land but you will come to be viewed as a resource instead of a distraction. Your choice. -
cynicus at 23:53 PM on 31 January 2011Monckton Myth #8: Rising sea levels
@56 Mike G. Thanks for your correction! I probably should have mentioned that I could not understand the word preceding Actinia even after a multiple times listening to that section. I reckoned that Actinia would be the group name. But aparently Actinia and Scleractinia are different branches. Also iirc it was Wikipedia that said Actinia were sponges, but you are right, looking that up again leads to sea anemones. Apologies for the confusion I caused, I'll try to be more careful next time. -
Mila at 23:28 PM on 31 January 2011An efficient world facts checker - Zvon.org guide to CIA World Factbook
#1 - a top secret - what I am playing with after CIA Factbook release: USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, Release 23 - planned release : end of February 2011 :) -
Glenn Tamblyn at 22:57 PM on 31 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
Pirate This is OT, the moderator may be able to suggest better thread to continue this conversation. Reading the survey, it is not spelled out whether the survey is meant as a test to measure peoples understanding of AGW concepts, or their opinions about it independent of their understanding. I will assume the later. Here are some comments & changes - mine bracketted so (* *) 1. Examine the above graph. It shows the relationship of CO2 to global temperature over a period of 400,000 years. The data is fairly well agreed upon by all scientists. (* This question seems to be posing its choices as either/or options which isn't really meaningful *) Please select one of the following answers. a. CO2 forces temperature change. b. Temperature forces CO2 change. c. Another factor, or factors, influences both. (* d. All of the above *) 2. From the graph: the Earth's current average temperature is: (* This question is quite strange. Does average mean averaged over the entire graph, or over the entire earth. If over the entire Earth then what is meant by 'currently' - 2011, the last century, the last 10,000 years (the Holocene)? From the graph a mark 1 eyeball can only really discern the last 10,000 years. And the signal is noisy. I wouldn't include this question in its current form at all *) 3. The Earth's climate changes over time. (* I would reword this as The Earth's climate has changed over time for many reasons. *) 4. Historically (prior to the industrial revolution) the climate has changed due to natural cycles (solar, orbital, landmass movement, volcanic eruptions, etc...). (* The use of 'cycles' here is problematic. Some aspects of climate may be cyclical such as orbital and short term solar. Others are not such as landmass changes or very long term solar. So the literally correct answer is No when actually the answer to what the question implies would be Yes. So a change to... *) Historically (prior to the industrial revolution) the climate has changed due to (* various natural factors *) (solar, orbital, landmass movement, volcanic eruptions, etc...). 5. The Earth is currently in a period of rapid climate change. (* Again a problem with language that could distort peoples answers. What constitutes 'rapid'? This is mixing two separate questions - is warming hapenning, and is it rapid. Are your students trying to determine how strongly their subjects think that climate is changing vs how strongly they thing that the change is rapid *) 6. Human (anthropogenic) contribution of CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuels to the atmosphere contributes to global warming. (* You might consider rewording this so that it questions peoples sense of the magnitude of the contribution but then we have 2 questions in one again. I wouldn't change this *) 7. Anthropogenic CO2 is causing rapid climate change and is responsible for disastrous weather situations around the world. (* Again a question with several parts. I have already commented on 'rapid'. 'is causing' is present tense so the second part of the question is misleading. Perhaps reword as...*) Anthropogenic CO2 is causing (* *) climate change and is (* predicted to *) be responsible for disastrous weather situations (* and many other problems around the world in decades to come *). 8. Alternative energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal...) are currently more expensive and less reliable than fossil fuel (coal, oil, natural gas, etc...), hydroelectric, or nuclear. All forms of energy generation have some type of environmental impact. Alternative energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal...) are currently more expensive and less reliable than fossil fuel (coal, oil, natural gas, etc...), hydroelectric, or nuclear. All forms of energy generation have some type of environmental impact. Are you willing to pay more for your utilities to reduce anthropogenic CO2 generation? (* This question has a problem. By comparing the action to be taken which appears negative with the result desired of reduced CO2, the costs of NOT acting aren't being presented as the alternative to the costs of acting. Perhaps the last sentence needs to be reworded...*) 'Are you willing to pay more for your utilities to reduce anthropogenic CO2 generation (* to guard against these problems in the future *)?' Some additional questions that would be useful in elucidating what peoples opinions are based on: What information will give us the best understanding of whether the climate is changing? a. Weather Station data from the USA - 1.5% of the Earth b. Weather Station data from all the countries in the world - 30% of the Earth c. Sea Surface Temperatures from the oceans - 70% of the Earth d. Satellits data from nearly all the Earth's surface e. Volumes of Ice melting from around the world f. Heat accumulating in the depths of the worlds oceans g. The total of all of the above. Who developed the scientific theories of AGW? a. The US Government, NASA etc b. Al Gore c. A handful of US & British scientists d. The IPCC e. 10's of 1000's of scientists, from countries all around the world, from many different branches of science, starting in the 1950's How big is the IPCC. How many employees does it have? a. 10 b. 100's c. 1000's d. 10's of 1000's -
adelady at 22:56 PM on 31 January 2011An efficient world facts checker - Zvon.org guide to CIA World Factbook
I might try this. I'm constantly looking at the Factbook - usually I find what I want. This could be a big advantage. (Though I confess I'm normally looking for health related matters rather than climate.) -
kdkd at 21:43 PM on 31 January 2011Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
BP #29 Your scatterplot is rather meaningless - for complex emergent phenomena like hurricanes, a simple univeriate analysis like your scatterplot is meaningless in the extreme, as hurricanes are complex and multidimensional entities, from an analytic perspective. -
Bart Verheggen at 21:08 PM on 31 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
John, Do you (or someone else) also have the updated graph for the Antarctic available? -
bratisla at 20:36 PM on 31 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
@27 : post-glacial rebound has a slow response rate - I don't remember exactly, but if you look for two decades the net effect of post-glacial rebound is not that great. On top of that, since Greenland is directly under the influence of Canada's post-glacial rebound (the extra mass to compensate for the Canada's elevation is "found" around, aka Greenland), there should be a compensation. Nothing quantified in my thoughts, so it must be modelled. Anyone ? :) -
Tom Curtis at 18:07 PM on 31 January 20112010: A Year of Record Warmth and Weird Weather
Eric, the locations of the flood gauges on the table are progressively further from the mouth of the Brisbane. Brisbane City, Jindalee, Mogill and Mount Crosby and Lowood are all on the Brisbane River, with the river being tidal up to half way between Mogill and Mount Crosby (ie, to College's Crossing). Lowood is just a few kilometers downstream from Wivenhoe Dam. Ipswich is on the Bremer River, which flows into the Brisbane River just upstream from Mogill. Lyon's Bridge and Gatton are on Lockyer Creek, which flows into the Brisbane River between Wivenhoe and Lowood. Laidley is on Laidley Creek, which flows into the Lockyer Creek between Gatton and Lyon's Bridge. There is a map of the Brisbane Valley along with all river gauges and meteorological stations here (PDF). Unfortunately it is not very clear. -
robert way at 17:57 PM on 31 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Hey John Brookes, See here http://www.skepticalscience.com/Ice-Sheet-mass-loss-melting.htm for discussion of your question.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Converted URL to link. -
dana1981 at 17:39 PM on 31 January 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
HR - Lindzen's strategy is to say there is high uncertainty associated with aerosols (true), and then proceed to entirely neglect their effects in his calculation. This is akin to saying they have zero forcing with zero uncertainty. This is wrong. In an upcoming article, I go through the calculations while carrying the uncertainties through. Spoiler alert - by doing so, you arrive at the opposite of Lindzen's conclusion. Bottom line - although he mentioned these effects in his article text, he ignored them in his calculations. -
HumanityRules at 17:12 PM on 31 January 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
Just a little more on Lindzen and aerosols. One of the reference's in the Lindzen article is Lindzen, R.S., 2007: Taking greenhouse warming seriously. Energy & Environment, 18, 937-950. He seems to both state the IPCC's and his position on aerosol's and their uncertainty. He also seems to acknowledge the importance of the system coming to equilibria which seems to be another aspect of Dana's criticism. Maybe nobody (including Dana) bothered to read the reference's, maybe they did, but either way one should look at the reference's. That's especially true if your going to publish a critique of the article. Dana you could have found out Lindzen's position on aerosols and equilibria if you had followed the references he supplied with the article. He seems to be well aware of both issues. (I re-read my first post. Even more apologies for describing the FEU as junk science, I haven't read. That's bad of me) -
HumanityRules at 16:20 PM on 31 January 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
First of all congrations Dana on getting your article taken up by The Gaurdian, you must be chuffed by that. Maybe this should go on the original "A Case Study...." thread and I'm probably going to mix up my feedback's, forcing and climate sensitivities but here goes. I don't quite see the relevance (or maybe importance) of you pointing out that Lindzen has ignored aerosols. The concensus position has it that strong negative feedback from aerosols has negated some of warming that would have occured in the late 20th century. Lindzen's position is that there is a low climate sensitivity (based on a reading of his published work). If Lindzen goes with the logic of his argument then low sensitivity means low increase in temperature from CO2 forcing, there is no need for strong aerosol forcing to mask CO2 warming. I'm guessing that one could assume that Lindzen also believes the IPCC has got things wrong when it comes to aerosols as well On a specific claim by you "However, neither accounted for man-made emissions of aerosols" Here's what Lindzen says "According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the greenhouse forcing from man made greenhouse gases is already about 86% of what one expects from a doubling of CO2 (with about half coming from methane, nitrous oxide, freons and ozone), and alarming predictions depend on models for which the sensitivity to a doubling for CO2 is greater than 2C which implies that we should already have seen much more warming than we have seen thus far, even if all the warming we have seen so far were due to man. This contradiction is rendered more acute by the fact that there has been no statistically significant net global warming for the last fourteen years. Modelers defend this situation, as we have already noted, by arguing that aerosols have cancelled much of the warming (viz Schwartz et al, 2010)" [my emphasis] He seems to acknowledge that the IPCC's position is based on aerosol's cancelling out some of the warming. I don't believe he think's that's true but he seems to acknowledge it is the position of the IPCC. Can you just explain what you mean when you say he doesn't account for it? I also don't get the basic point about linking the response to a bad paper by FEU and the article by Lindzen. The concensus from both sides of the debate seems to be that the FEU is junk science (apologies to the authors) you show that above, the debate continues about the relevance of Lindzen's science. But so what? Resumably the only link between the two articles is you believe they both fall down because of the same flaw. In fact based on what you say here and in "A Case Studt..." you seem to assume that as a given and expect reade to make that assuption as well. I don't believe that people have to take your position especially when you did so little to win it. I also think people have the right to be unimpressed by your criticism of Lindzen's work without being considered biased or illogical. I don't think you've actually done much in your posts to prove that the Lindzen and FEU works are equivalents. -
Marcus at 14:01 PM on 31 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
I'm sorry, Pirate, but I'm *shocked* that you're a teacher-given your comment at 115. It really does display a shocking amount of ignorance on your part. Point 1, those climate change events in the graph are over 50,000 year periods of time. Were you to zoom in on any single, 100 year period, you'd actually see *very little* change (last time I calculated it, the average rate of change during each interglacial is around +0.005-+0.01 degrees per decade-about 1%-2% of the rate of change we've seen in the last 60 years). Point 2 is that the warming we're seeing during each interglacial period is easily explained by changes in Total Solar Irradiance & CO2-whereas the last 60 years *cannot* be explained by changes in Solar Irradiance-a very relevant piece of information that anyone taking this survey would need access to. Thirdly, when considering the scope of human civilization, Geological Time is largely irrelevant. Even if we were to exit the current interglacial period tomorrow, it would be about 1,000 years-at least-before we'd ever see any negative impacts. Compared to the changes being wrought by Anthropogenic influences, natural changes just pale into insignificance over the period of human history. -
Marcus at 13:51 PM on 31 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
Pirate @ 115. Given the short space of time our civilization has been on this planet, & the speed with which recent climate change has occurred, compared to past climate cycles, I think 100 years can tell a huge amount. The reality remains that the planet has warmed more in 60 years than it has at any other point in the past 10,000 years. By excluding this period from your graph, you're creating a definite bias. -
muoncounter at 13:49 PM on 31 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
#117: "when we teach ... a student Unit 2 about natural climate change and the mechanisms and results of such, if we do our job correctly they should question the proposed mechanisms of artificial climate change." Questioning the mechanisms would indeed be a good outcome. Therein lies the problem: If you, me or anyone else taught that the mechanisms for past climate change were the same mechanisms controlling today's climate, then you, me or anyone else really should be teaching poetry or painting, not science. If any student in that class of so-called best and brightest did not question a teacher who put forth that anthropogenic influences did not play a major role in today's world, then those students still have lots to learn - not just about climate change, but about how to take responsibility for their own education. Just wondering what you put forth as the mechanisms of natural climate change and what you said about what's happened recently. And why you think that what you teach first (Unit 2) necessarily controls what is understood later (Unit 7). Did you teach that human influence can modify climate for good, not just for bad? If so, how could your students fail to question the mantra 'it's all natural'? -
Eric (skeptic) at 13:48 PM on 31 January 20112010: A Year of Record Warmth and Weird Weather
#47 Tom Curtis, thanks for the links, I will need more time to go through them. But I agree that we cannot ignore the dams. I was actually hoping that some of the gauges would be below and some above the dam in the table that I linked in #42, but I have no idea where they are. #50 muoncounter, that is an interesting presentation. Some of the parabolic trend lines look to me like they were added by hand, not calculated. Also adding the non-climate disasters to the one chart was kind of pointless although it didn't change the trend. They identify all the factors involved including population and density, but not until after they present charts with dollar losses unadjusted for those other factors. They only care about their bottom line and it shows. -
Yvan Dutil at 13:43 PM on 31 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
#27 Someone might be more specific than me but this as been discussed previously. They are some argument about this issue in the scientific literature. Many people argue that the method you described underestimate the melting. I think it is fair to say that the jury is still open at this point. As many other issues, answer will come soon enough.
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