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Comments 9751 to 9800:

9751. MA Rodger at 19:09 PM on 3 August 2019
      Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
      

      Jiminy Cricket @351,

      You ask 1) What are the limitations on the positive feedback influence of water vapour. What are the physical constraints on run away?

      The concept of a "run away" climate isn't always well defined. There can be feedbacks (big & small) that once started will not stop until they reach their limit. These are the climate's tipping points and perhaps the biggest of these would be the idea of a "run away" climate turning the Earth's climate into something like that of Venus. Famously, Jim Hansen, in his 2009 book 'Storms of My Grandchildren' said:-

      "After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

      Hansen has since corrected that, saying (here in 2017):-

      "One flaw in my book Storms of My Grandchildren is my inference you can get runaway climate change on a relatively short timescale. You have to get rid of the ocean before you get to a Venus situation, and that requires you getting the water to escape. That took hundreds of millions of years for that to occur on Venus. You could certainly get to a disastrous situation without getting rid of the ocean, but if you want to go to a Venus-type situation, then you have to lose the ocean. Venus did. Hydrogen isotopes on Venus do indicate that it once had a lot of water, but doesn’t now."

      There is a more scientific account by Hansen on this somewhere but at the moment it doesn't come to hand. The mechanism for losing the planet's water is to increase global temperature enough that it wipes out the tropopause allowing water vapour into the high atmosphere and thus a route out into space.

      The reason you need to get rid of the water is that the increasing evaporation/rainfall with rising surface temperature becomes a major cooling mechanism. (It presently constitutes 16% of the upward energy flux at the surface.) A further consideration is that if the primary forcing was due to CO2, that increased rainfall would cause increased rock-weathering and that in turn cause increased CO2 draw-down.

9752. nigelj at 17:11 PM on 3 August 2019
      The 'war on coal' myth
      

      jef @1

      The lack of competitiveness of coal right now is nothing to do with peak coal in the sense you mean of reserves of coal. Coal reserves have not peaked, and there are about 150 years known reserves left globally at current rates of use. It's believed it may only be about 60 years in America.

      Coal reached an "energy extraction peak" in 1998 and a tonnage peak on 2008, but this is a different thing to reserves and is because of competition from other energy sources including gas and renewable energy. There have been several extraction peaks in the history of coal. Refer to "peak coal" on wikipedia.

      In addition the article above showed that the price of coal has gone down in recent decades, which is obviously not consistent with any ideas that reserves of coal having peaked.

      Therefore it is clear the reason coal is out of favour is competition from renewable energy and gas, and so renewable energy sources are simply more economic than coal as the article stated.

      It's true to say that supplies of light crude oil have probably peaked, and heavy crude will peak sometime this century. Refer peak oil on wikipedia.

      Nevertheless it is clear coal and oil are likely to increase in price at some point this century, and will obviously run out sooner than a lot of people realise, and so this is all yet another obvious reason why it makes sense to transition to renewable energy sources like wind, solar and hydro power.

      What do you mean renewable (not)? Do you not realise the materials used to manufacture solar panels and wind turbines can be recycled? Hydro dams are built from concrete and even earth that is so plentiful it is not an issue. Sure we will run out of some materials completely eventually almost regardless of what we do, so what is it you suggest we do? Go without power?

9753. jef12506 at 14:34 PM on 3 August 2019
      The 'war on coal' myth
      

      Its called PEAK fossil fuels and it has nothing to do with the cost of "renewable" (not) energy. Sure when the truth of fracking, coal, and oil production decline hits ever more harder ANY source of energy will look cheap. Problem is it absolutely will not/can not support modern civilization.

9754. michael sweet at 09:59 AM on 3 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

      Barry:

      From your reference:

                           "The wider problem
      Five European nations host US nuclear weapons on their soil as part of a NATO nuclear-sharing arrangement, and roughly two dozen other nations claim to rely on US nuclear weapons for their security. Furthermore, there are many nations with nuclear power or research reactors capable of being diverted for weapons production. The spread of nuclear know-how has increased the risk that more nations will develop the bomb." my emphasis

9755. michael sweet at 09:35 AM on 3 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

      Barry,

      My argument is that nuclear plants are not economic.  The DIW report I cited showed that of 674 civilian reactors built worldwide, 674 (every single one) were subsidized by the government.  Nuclear plants lose money.

      If you have a problem with DIW's claim that "military interests have
      always been the driving force behind their construction" you will have to take it up with them.  I suggest first that you read their report available here. Since the title of the report is "High-priced and dangerous: nuclear power is not an option for the climate-friendly energy mix" you will need to come up with some economic arguments.  They also accept the LRNT descriptiion of radioactivity hazard.

      When I Googled DIW they appear to be a serious think tank that has no particular bias.  You need to provide evidence that your unsupported opinion is more accurate than a very well documented report from DIW.  

      At Skeptical Science personal opinion has little value.  If you want to be taken seriously you must cite peer reviewed studies.

      Since I have a Masters Degree in Chemistry I am able to understand the complexities of different plutonium isotopes in the reactor fuel.

9756. barry17781 at 07:59 AM on 3 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

      Mr sweet, The sheer practicalities of using a civilian reactor do not favour weapond production either. Its abit technical, but believe me , The first nuclear weapons nations built dedicated weapons production reactors. 

      There was absolutly no reason for these countries to use civilian reactos to produce weapons grade plutonium.

      The minimization of the amount of 240
      Pu
      present in weapons grade plutonium is achieved by reprocessing the fuel after just 90 days of use. Such rapid fuel cycles are highly impractical for civilian power reactors and are normally only carried out with dedicated weapons plutonium production reactors. Plutonium from spent civilian power reactor fuel typically has under 70% 239
      Pu
      and around 26%240
      Pu
      , the rest being made up of other plutonium isotopes, making it extremely difficult but not impossible to use it for the manufacturing of improvised nuclear weapons.[4][8][11][12]

9757. barry17781 at 07:41 AM on 3 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

      Erratum, Iran could possibly be regarded as being with intention of building a weapon and so should have been accounted for in the argument

9758. barry17781 at 07:38 AM on 3 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

      M Sweet

      Nuclear power plants have been built in 34 countries out of these 9 countries have or believed to have nuclear weapons 

      It is therfore clear that your stament that

      "military interests havealways been the driving force behind their construction"

      is false 

      ie contries that have built nuclear power stations = 34 less 9 with weapons = 25 countries with power plants and no weapons. 

      your comment is a piece of scurriulous mis information

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_by_country

      http://www.icanw.org/the-facts/nuclear-arsenals/

       

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9759. nigelj at 07:38 AM on 3 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      I tend to keep my cars until they are totally worn out, or new models have safety features that are really desirable. I couldnt care less if my car doesn't have apple car play or bluetooth, or the latest silly gadgets!

9760. nigelj at 07:34 AM on 3 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      prove we are smart @21, exactly car manufacturers can build cars that last for ages and don't break if they want, and have been doing it for decades, so when cars have use by dates its clearly deliberate. But nobody can really force manufacturers to build things that last for ages, we are not the Soviet Union, so its up to the public to be a bit smarter and buy long lasting products which will encourage manufactuers to do more. The government could do something like maintain a register of long lasting products, or perhaps consumer organisations could do this. Consumers need information. This will then push manufacturers to build better products.

      There might be something we could do to force manufacturers to make it easier to repair products.

      Your model for sustainable living is fine for those able to live in rural locations, or who have large sections. For apartment dwellers its a challenge, because they are so reliant on industrial agriculture and may not be able to move house or find small plots of land. It's like industrial agriculture has to change to a more sustainable model. Again it probably comes down to the public choosing to buy the most sustainably industrially grown food, and perhaps some government incentives for farming to become more sustainable. I'm at a loss to think what else could be done.

      Capitalism in its present form looks unsustainable to me, and AI might start replacing enough jobs to create a problem. The question is what to do about it, without creating even bigger problems, and repeating failed experiments like Soviet collectivisation. Its going to need some lateral thinking.

9761. nigelj at 07:13 AM on 3 August 2019
      What role will climate change play in the 2020 presidential election?
      

      Shoemore @4, yes George Bush made some climate promises (with zero substance) and McCain has some more tangible ideas, but right now the GOP are in almost complete denial about the climate issue. Neither they or Trump have anything to offer but empty platitudes and deceptive ideas like "clean coal" (what has Trump actually done about that? Anyone know?) so right now The Democrats can differentiate themselves with climate policies . Of course the GOP and Trump might then be forced to respond with their own ideas. All good!

      I agree with your last paragraph. Perceptive.

9762. michael sweet at 04:53 AM on 3 August 2019
      Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
      

      Jiminy Cricket,

      You have interesting questions.

      Doubling the concentration of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would by itself raise global temperatures by about 1C.  Additional feedbacks, of which water vapor is one of the biggest, would then kick in to cause about 2C more increase in temperature.  The exact amount of the total feedbacks are not well known and the accepted range is a total of 2C-4.5 C (including the 1C from carbon dioxide ).  There is a long tail of possiblle larger increases but the 2-4.5C range is reasonably solid.  I will call it 3C for this discussion.  We all hope it is not more than 3C per doubling.

      After the 3C increase per doubling the temperature stabilizes.  Scientists agree that the feedbacks will not continue forever in a runaway temperature increase.  Some feedbacks, like melting of ice sheets, take a long time to reach equilibrium.  On the other hand, the climate changes we see with just 1C of temperature increase, like last weeks heat wave in Europe and California fires, are greater than expected.  Scientists agree that we should keep warming as low as possible.

      Industrial extraction of water from the atmmosphere is really not pratical.  So much water evaporates from the ocean and the land every day that it would be impossible to extract enough water vapor to affect the atmospheric concentration significantly.  Work is being done on ways to extract CO2 which is a gigantic task but smaller than extracting water.

      Your reference talks about extracting water from the atmosphere for drinking in areas where water is very short like in the Sahel in Africa.  This water extraction would be too small to affect the concentration of water in the atmosphere but very valuable to people who live in areas with little drinking water.

9763. Eclectic at 04:34 AM on 3 August 2019
      Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
      

      Jiminy @351 , I can see that a "super-absorbent gel" could have some uses when deployed in a a confined space.  Rather like silicate crystals currently used for that purpose.

      Large scale :- the Earth has 350 million square Km of seawater surface . . . and so the "engineered" removal of 20 litres (or 20 trillion litres) of water from the air would be a futile exercise.  Within a few days, that mass of water vapor would have been replaced by natural evaporation from the ocean.

      In rough figures, the Earth surface temperature has increased 1 degreeC since pre-industrial times, and as a consequence of that warming, atmospheric water vapor has increased 7% (which has had its own GreenHouse effect, of course).   But the way to reduce that 7% . . . is to lower the temperature (which is achieved by lowering the the level of GreenHouse Gasses of the non-condensing sort i.e. CO2 primarily and to a lesser extent, methane etc.)

      Alternative temperature-lowering methods would be "geo-engineering" such as injection of sulfate particles into the stratosphere (to act as reflective aerosols).  But that is highly problematic, indeed.

      In practical terms, we have to aim at the control of CO2.  Nothing much else would work, in the medium-to-long term.

9764. Jiminy Cricket at 02:53 AM on 3 August 2019
      Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
      

      I have some questions if some kindly soul would shed some light on:

      1) What are the limitations on the positive feedback influence of water vapour. What are the physical constraints on run away?

      2) There appears to be much research on the potential impact and technological feasibility of extracting CO2 through reforestation or industrial extraction with everything from algal bioreactors to metal organic frameworks (MOFs). Presuming technological feasibility, in terms of the physical constraints, might some kind of industrial extraction of water vapor be possible on a scale capable of influencing atmospheric temperatures?

      (If not, another side question I have is: does that mean there is no limitation to how much water vapor can be removed from the atmospheric system i.e. if you had a technological non-fossilfuel way to remove the water efficiently at relevant humidity levels (eg to supply water for water scarce areas for drinking, agriculture and dedesertification), could that be done limitlessly (presuming the technological and energetic means to do so). Eg improving and massively scaling up a material and process like this:

      https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/adma.201806446

      NB This link refers to a scientific study describing an engineered "super moisture‐absorbent gel" that is experimentally shown to be able to remove 20litres of water per kg of material within a 24hour period.)

      Many thanks (from a doctor worried about his kids and trying to understand this science.

9765. shoyemore at 00:42 AM on 3 August 2019
      What role will climate change play in the 2020 presidential election?
      

      #3,

      There is nothing particularly extraordinary about measures to alleviate climate change. After all, it is what the rest of the world signed up for in the Paris Agreement (on paper, at least!). Lest we forget, George W Bush rode into office on a promise to limit carbon emissions, and John McCain had a carbon credit scheme as part of his election platform.

      Besides, they can hit Trump on the Environment and Energy, where he has failed to revive the coal industry, and where his promises of "the cleanest air and water" ring distinctly hollow.

      The Environment and Climate Change may not be the top issue of most Americans, but neither are Guns or Abortion, for which sizeable minorities are mobilised to vote Republican. The Democrats should aim to do the same with one of the weakest aspect of Trump's performance, a field which is target-rich.

9766. MA Rodger at 22:19 PM on 2 August 2019
      It's cosmic rays
      

      Aldaron @106,

      First a correction. I said @109 that one of the citations of Fleming (2018) was an error as it didn't cite Fleming at all. That was wrong. I was looking at the wrong PDF. Vuori (2019) does cite Fleming (2018) but cites it as being an exemplar of climate change denial.

      And I have 'read' Fleming (2019) but not from start-to-finish as it is packed full of denialist nonsense as well as being, shall we say, less than coherent. (For instance in Section 3 it kicks off citing a reference which insists global warming is in the long term due to the weight of the atmosphere and then one of the GWPF 'experts' Ian Plimer who's reliability is more a joke than questionable.)

      Fleming (2018) gives more detail of method than Fleming (2019) while being consistent with Fleming (2019) in demonstrating a failure to understand the mechanisms of GHG operation. Where it differs from Fleming (2019) is in not carrying out that final analysis of Fleming (2019) which used that unusual deffusion coefficient. Thus, unlike Fleming (2019), his main finding (that w.r.t. CO2 the atmosphere is effectively transperent to IR in-and-above the upper troposphere) is in tune with everybody else but his interpretation of this (that CO2 "contributes low level heating and allows upper level cooling for a zero net effect") is so-much gibberish.

9767. prove we are smart at 20:24 PM on 2 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      So i thought of examples that are working in the real world...My car is 27 yrs old, has no computer, nor air con. It has 536000 km on the clock, it is a dual cab ute. This model ran for 1988-1997, with few changes. I believe it was finally"updated" to be less agricultural, ie more refined, more comfort and more features. I bought it with 397000 km on the clock because this model dualcab had a reputation for overbuilt and underpowered. In fact the sales pitch even now is "unbreakable",what am i suggesting? We could build "things" to last again,if the consumer with govt help demand it so.

      I live in a small village with 1/2-1 acre blocks, my mate and his wife have showed me a good role model for sustainable living:

      They drive a second hand Honda Prius.

      They have solar power and low grid use.

      Grow at least1/2 their grocery items.

      Capture all their water needs.

      Composting, waterless toilet

      Maybe its easier for the villages/towns to adapt? As for city dwellers-use rooftop space for growing? I see communial vegetable gardens working around even the big towns-maybe cities too?

      Perhaps Michael Sweet@13 has a big part of the solution, thats a lot of money to do a lot of good..

      I guess if we grow less we will consume less? The jobs lost will leave people in limbo,is it time for a different form of capitalism?

9768. prove we are smart at 13:47 PM on 2 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      Nigelj@17,  My bad grammer made it seem like you had missed that sorry..AS for putting the heat on, yes, talk is easy,a plan or ideas is better. I like your ideas to consumer choice, carbon footprint growth and resource management. I'm not too clever and i must go for a town dash...it will maybe help me consider some other ways to change our predicament..

9769. nigelj at 12:28 PM on 2 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      Werner Hartl @16

      "2) Have any controlled experiments been done to test the theory? For example, with IR transparently enclosed identical boxes set in a field with varying amounts of CO2 and temperature monitored."

      Lab experiments have conclusively demonstrated CO2 is a greenhouse gas basically by shining light sources on canisters of CO2 and other gases and this goes back literally centuries. Easily enough googled and lots of youtube videos.

      3) Same experiment as 2) under lab conditions with temperature change predicted by theory before the experiment?

      Not possible except very crudely in that more CO2 generates more warming. The temperature changes predicted for the earths atmosphere as CO2 increases are a function of a huge vertical depth of atmosphere and compounding factors like convection, clouds and positive feedbacks that cannot be emulated in a glass container in a lab. It relies on complicated physics, modelling and paleo climate evidence (and we have some good evidence).

9770. nigelj at 10:13 AM on 2 August 2019
      What role will climate change play in the 2020 presidential election?
      

      I feel for the Democrats. They need something to differentiate themselves from the Republicans or why would anyone vote Democrat, but if they shift towards policy extremes for the sake of doing the opposite of Trump, or too many radical ideas,  they might alienate the very swing voters they need. Swing voters vote on the logic of policies, not partisan leanings or ideas simply because they are "new". The Democrats  need "captain sensible" types of policies. 

      The democrats  can both differentiate themselves from the republicans with climate change policies, and there are enough captain sensible climate policies like simple subsidies for renewable energy, and cancelling fossil fuel subsidies. A carbon tax would also be great, but it appears Americans have a violent allergic reaction to taxes so it would need to be carefully worked out. I'm on the outside looking in and a carbon tax might not be the best approach in America.

      The democrats would be well advised to find  a presidential candidate that is intelligent and with no huge skeletons in the closet. The opposite of Trump. Differentiation.

9771. nigelj at 09:27 AM on 2 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      Correction. Some cars are designed for only "150,000" kms before they start requiring serious repairs, others will happily go well over 300,000 kms and they dont cost more in many cases.

9772. nigelj at 09:16 AM on 2 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      prove we are smart @12

      You said "Built in obsolescence can seem good for everyone but is really bad for the planet. I grew up when things lasted better This quadary is similar to the CO2 reduction...The sooner we act, the less painful it will be.Could i/we live with less choices? This word "growth", a measure of success. Can you not grow economies and keep people happy ? but save our dwindling resourses?"

      Goood comments and I agree built in obsolescence is a problem. I said it was concerning so I'm not sure how you missed that.

      I also said what do people think society should do about built in obsolescence? In other words what is your plan to get from built in obsolescence, to less built in obsolescence? All you have done is talk about acting sooner which is not a plan. OPOF has a plan to get from A to B. Now you are a clever guy, so what is your plan? Im putting some heat on you and others because people complain and wave there arms without offereing any solutions.

      I think its partly about consumer choice. For example its well known certain automobiles have a use by date of about 150 kilometres, while others will do huge kilometres without problems, so buy those. It's no good complaing if we buy the wrong products, although the real problem is when everything has built in obsolescence like smartphones. But is there anything governments could do to reduce consumer obsolescence using there power to regulate and use incentives?

      Yes I agree we could clearly live with less choice, but what does this really achieve? It doesn't reduce carbon footprints or other environmental impacts. People are still buying the same quantity of goods.

      Economic growth is a huge subject. Obviously infinite growth is not possible on a finite planet, so in crude terms its probable growth will slow down and theres evidence it already is in many western countries. You could grow the services sector, but growth related to resources will slow. Whether we push to slow economic growth deliberately is another question.

      If you are worried about our profiligate use of resources, and future generations running out of resources as a result, imho our best bet is to encourage our generation to have smaller families and consume less to reduce demand on environmental resources, but I find it implausible that people will give up on buying technology.

9773. nigelj at 08:04 AM on 2 August 2019
      'No doubt left' about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts
      

      Sam-qc @13 , I cant find a list of Italian scientists who signed the document sceptical of human caused climate change. Other similar submissions have always ended up having very few climate research scientists as signatories. I've therefore largely given up reading these sorts of sceptical petitions, because its just going to be more of the same.

9774. billev at 06:49 AM on 2 August 2019
      'No doubt left' about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts
      

      I believe that data from the new CO2 measuring sattelite is going to reveal information that will greatly effect existing notions on the sources of atmospheric CO2.  But this will only occur if the data is analized correctly.  For example, NASA has published a description and comments about a Finnish study that purports to isolate the location of CO2 caused by human activity.  However, the map of that CO2 in the United States shows significant correlation with areas of higher vegetation levels while the majority of U.S. large cities show the presence of the lowest level of CO2 presence.  

      Moderator Response:

      [PS] offtopic. Try again here, but read the article first so you see the evidence. If you reference a study, please provide a link so people can check your interpretation. You expect high vege to emit CO2 so I dont why you think that challenges consensus.

      Please ask yourself if any data will change your mind which is apparently biased toward finding any excuse for inaction of emissions. If you are not prepared to let data form your opionions, then this is not the site for you.

      For anyone responding to billev, please do so on the topic indicated, not here.

9775. Werner Hartl at 04:02 AM on 2 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      Just some observations

      1) During a period when CO2 has increased, the earth has gotten warmer. During the same period I have gotten older. 

      2) Have any controlled experiments been done to test the theory? For example, with IR transparently enclosed identical boxes set in a field with varying amounts of CO2 and temperature monitored.

      3) Same experiment as 2) under lab conditions with temperature change predicted by theory before the experiment?

      4) The earth is not a sphere at roughly uniform temperature. It is a thin crust surrounding a molten iron core.

      Moderator Response:

      [PS] Massive experimental work lab and otherwise supports climate theory. However, I suspect you have some misconceptions about how GHE works.

      Please use the Search function, (top left) or the Arguments menu item to find relevant information. eg for geothermal heat, see here. The IPCC reports are also good place to find reviews of the science though you are really talking about experiments going back to 1896. Spencer Weart's "The Discovery of Global Warming" website is easily readable outline of the experimental work.

9776. One Planet Only Forever at 03:30 AM on 2 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      nigelj@11,

      Society can reduce unhelpful harmful things like planned obsolescence by increasing awareness of the importance of having everything governed by improved awareness and understanding applied to achieve and improve on the Sustainable Development Goals.

      Some people are trying to have new electronics like smart phones be repairable or able to be upgraded. But private interests profiting from selling 'new versions' fight against such obviously better ways of doing things. And like the resistance to 'more expensive' renewable energy many consumers also like to resist have sustainable better ways be imposed.

      Renewable energy options have only been more expensive because fossil fuels are subsidized, especially by not being required to be totally 'impact neutral' (meaning either having all potential impacts neutralized or having a conservative price imposed for harmful impacts that are not neutralized, including adding conservative costs as new potential harmful impacts are identified that are only reduced if improved understanding reduces the potential upper limit of the harm being done).

9777. MA Rodger at 03:14 AM on 2 August 2019
      Models are unreliable
      

      I note that the Gentlemen Who Prefer Fantasy liked Christy's little talk on May 8th so much that they have published the guts of it as GWPF Note 17 - 'THE TROPICAL SKIES - Falsifying climate alarm'.

      (It was actually published 23/5/19 prior to their publishing the transcript of the talk 18/6/19, with the Gentlemen posting it under the headline - "Climate Models Have Been Predicting Too Much Warming")

9778. shoyemore at 23:25 PM on 1 August 2019
      What role will climate change play in the 2020 presidential election?
      

      This is a "wedge issue" for Democrats ... they can use it to capture Independent voters, and perhaps peel away enough Republican voters to swing the elections. 

      In Pew Research Centre figures, 56% of American support prioritizing policies for the environment and climate change. 27% of Republican or Leaning Republican voters believe climate related policies help the environment, while 40% believe such policies either help or make no difference to the economy.

      These policies also stand a greater chance of mobilizing the votes of younger Americans, notoriously the least likely to actually go to the polls on election day.

      I think the issue will also embarrass Trump publicly, as he trots out the most egregious, long-debunked myths on the topic. 

      https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/19/how-americans-see-climate-change-in-5-charts/

9779. franklefkin at 23:03 PM on 1 August 2019
      What role will climate change play in the 2020 presidential election?
      

      "What role will climate change play in the 2020 presidential election?"

       Almost zero!  It does not rank as a top priority for American voters.

9780. MA Rodger at 22:53 PM on 1 August 2019
      It's cosmic rays
      

      Aldaron @106,

      Tea time has come and gone so I can report back. Yet this report remains incomplete even after two cups.

      FIRST CUP OF TEA
      My peek inside Flemings book shows he is doing some big calculations using HITRAN data which appears to confirm the AGW impact of CO2. But then through his analysis somehow adopting a rogue coefficient of his own contrivance, Fleming manages to produce a fundamentally different result. Yet Fleming fails to explain this situation and resorts to an incoherent explanation. Indeed, the whole tends to incoherence.
      Note that your quote @106 (from Fleming's website) doesn't bear much relation to what his book says.

      In his book, the Summary of Chapter 11 pp80-82 tells us rather incoherently that if you use a larger deffusion coefficient (of unknown origin) on the HITRAN data, you can calculate the effective level of transparency (this the altitude where the CO2 is radiating out into space and so cooling the planet) as being up at an altitude of 16km. That  is up in the stratosphere while the usual analysis, as Fleming also shows, would be lower at 9km in the troposphere. He doesn't say, but were this higher level  true the impact of adding CO2 to the atmosphere (CO2 is well mixed up to 50km) would actually be be to cool the planet.
      (For the record, a small part of the 15 micron CO2 absorption band does already operate up into the stratosphere and that small part will become bigger with increasing CO2. But the net effect will remain warming as there is much much more of the CO2 absorption bands still operating in the troposphere and they warm the planet with increasing CO2.)

      Fleming's explanation for his finding of zero AGW effect is entirely incoherent. He tells us the temperature-with-altitude effect is "very strong" and also "the diffuse radiation intensity depletes rapidly over vertical distance" but that also the CO2 temperature-with-altitude effect is "quite small", as is the CO2-effect relative to the whole IR spectrum analysed (1 micron to 30 micron). As I say, this is incoherent and shows no understanding of the AGW mechanism. Plus, even if this explanation could be understood, these reasons are not in any way quantified to demonstrate their significance.

      SECOND CUP OF TEA
      While peeking into Fleming's book, I also noticed on p82 reference 6 - R.J. Fleming, (2018) "An updated review about carbon dioxide and climate change", Environmental Earth Sciences, vol. 77, pp1-13.
      As specifically pointed out by Gavin Schmidt @ RealClimate, this is not a proper peer-reviewed paper as the journal doesn't cover climatology (it covers Geology, Hydrology/Water Resources, Geochemistry, Environmental Science and Engineering, Terrestrial Pollution, Biogeosciences) and shouldn't be accepting a paper so far beyond its speciality.
      
      Now, despite the grand revalation of Fleming's paper allegedly overturning the entirety of clomatology, it has received zero citation since publication in March 2018. I say that as currently Google Scholar lists just four citations. Two are by Fleming himself and of the other two, both are obvious mistakes. One does not cite the paper at all. The other cites it for the exact opposite of Fleming's thesis, its opening line being - "It has been scientifically well established that carbon dioxide (CO2), a major greenhouse gas, is the prime reason for the climate change and global warming phenomena in recent decades" (Fleming 2018)
      Fleming (2018) is paywalled and I took a whole tea break looking for a full version on-line and here it is in PDF. I shall have a read in due course.

9781. prove we are smart at 21:38 PM on 1 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      Michael Sweet@13, I reckon Exon Mobil and their mates would like that..

9782. michael sweet at 21:24 PM on 1 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      The Institute for Sustainablle Development has released a report  (Guardian article) that says if we eliminate the $US370 billion yearly subsidies on fossil fuels and invest 10-30% of the money saved in renewable energy that woud result in skyrocketing renewable energy use.  It only makes sense that removing subsidies on fossil fuels would result in faster uptake of renewables.  In addition, countries would have more money to use for other critical uses.

9783. prove we are smart at 17:14 PM on 1 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      Nigelj@11, Built in obsolescence can seem good for everyone but is really bad for the planet. I grew up when things lasted better This quadary is similar to the CO2 reduction...The sooner we act, the less painful it will be.Could i/we live with less choices? This word "growth", a measure of success. Can you not grow economies and keep people happy ? but save our dwindling resourses?

9784. shoyemore at 16:49 PM on 1 August 2019
      'No doubt left' about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts
      

      Sam-qc,

      Crescenti's letter has had little or no impact in Europe. This was the first I heard of it.

      Part of the right and far-right retain climate change denial as part of their DNA, but the recent (relative) success of the Greens in European elections has forced them to dial back. I am not sure if they have the stomach to fight this battle again, which they apparently lost.

      The letter reads like a regurgitation of standard boiler-plate denial. I could have been written by Roy Spencer. The inclusion of the name of Fred Switz and the pre-refuted NIPCC Report is a dead giveaway.

      However, there is no reason to be complacent. We await the stance of the Johnson UK Government on climate change - his cabinet contains "skeptics", and he has been ambivalent in the past.

9785. shoyemore at 16:36 PM on 1 August 2019
      'No doubt left' about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts
      

      I heard one of Trump's hacks, Myron Ebell. on a video clip parroting all the old discredited rubbish about climate change - there is no consensus, scientists disagree etc. He was pushing Trump's "solution", which he called Energy Dominance.

      This pernicious rubbish will have to be opposed into the 2020s, and maybe even beyond. There is no reason to be smug.

9786. nigelj at 09:46 AM on 1 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      prove we are smart @7, the consumer choice we have is so huge gives me a headache and wastes time in decision making, however it's a natural result of an open global market economy with many competitors. There was less choice in the 1970's when countries had huge protectionist trade policies, so were reliant on just a few domestic producers, but it's hard to see society going back to that form of trade. Bewildering choice looks like the new normal and does not seem a hugely bad thing.

      The greater concern might be built in obsolescence, but how does society change that?

9787. michael sweet at 09:21 AM on 1 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

      Sorry, I forgot to link the DIW report .

      A newspaper summary is here.

9788. barry17781 at 09:08 AM on 1 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

      ." As MA Rodger points they are already short of uranium".  M Sweet,

       

      No he stated that there is enough for 200 years of Uranium, That does not include Thorium who's supply is vasly greater than Uranium

9789. barry17781 at 08:55 AM on 1 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

       

       

      "For the average plant worldwide, this translates into a total land requirement per nuclear facility plus mining and storage of about 20.5 km2. The footprint on the ground (e.g., excluding the buffer zone only) is about 4.9–7.9 km2"  M sweet

       

      Moderator Response:
      [PS] Standing back for a moment. Barry, I believe you are trying to dispute the validity of Abbott's objections. Abbott raises the land area issue (and especially the need for a particular type of land) using Jacobson's figure for area based on plant, buffer zone, mining and waste requirements. Abbott states a figure of as much as 20km2 per plant (ie a maximum of 20km2). Abbott is not disproved by showing some plants are smaller (especially if your examples fail to account for mining and waste area as well). Furthermore, as Michael Sweet has pointed out, the land area is a rather trivial issue in the context of Abbott. I would prefer to see more substantive issues addressed if there is to be a case made for nuclear energy.  - moderator

       

      Dear moderator, your comments are more apt to Mr sweet;s comments who clearly is diputing the actual areas of power stations, such as hinkley point

9790. barry17781 at 08:25 AM on 1 August 2019
      Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
      

      Mr Sweet

      You claim without citation

      "An empirical survey of the 674 nuclear power plants that have ever been built showed that private economicmotives never played a role. Instead military interests havealways been the driving force behind their construction"

      Please could you explain to me where are Canada's ,  nuclear weapons obtained from its reactors.

      Germany since afrter the war has not been involved in nuclear weapons material.

      Then we can add Sweden , The Netherlands, Belgium, Spain etc all to countries that have civilian nuclear power but no intention of weapons production

9791. MA Rodger at 07:41 AM on 1 August 2019
      It's cosmic rays
      

      Aldaron @106,

      The Schwarschild equation calculates the amount of radiation transmitted through a medium (like the Earth's atmosphere) when there are substances absorbing/emitting that radiation (as do greenhouse gases). The Schwarschild equation tells us that we will have global warming if we increase the GHG concentrations as the more GHG the higher the emission-into-space altitude and the higher you go (in the troposphere) the colder it gets so the less radiation is emitted into space.

      Without reading Fleming's book, the quote you provide seems to be saying just that. The surface is warmed by back radiation (from CO2 & H2O) so an enhanced IR flux travels up from the surface through the atmosphere being absorbed/emitted as it goes. But as it rises through the troposphere, the temperature drops. Thus, according to the Schwarzchild equation, there will indeed be a "failure ...  to maintain the CO2 longwave radiation intensity achieved in the surface warming." Thus when the density of GHG increases and the altitude at which this IR flux is transmitted into space rises to higher and colder altitudes, the flux out to space which cools the planet will be of yet lower 'intensity'. Less cooling of the planet so more global warming.

      Fleming's book appears a recent publication (June 2019) and a whole 144 pages long covering from 'Chapter 2 - Creation of the Universe' to "Chapter 14 - Future Research on Climate and Energy Issues'. It is either very small writing or a very compact theory being presented. But, hey, why should climate be so complex anyway?

      There is also this very day a Heatland pod-caste featuring this same Fleming (25 mins long) than may give some inkling of what is proposed but I couldn't cope with the first 20 seconds that simply comprised lift music.

      And I note Google have a reviewable entry of the book so may have a go at reading relevant sections over a cup of tea some time.

      But until then my judgement is unchanged. Fleming has misunderstood Schwarzchild.

9792. One Planet Only Forever at 07:09 AM on 1 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      prove we are smart,

      Another way of identifying the harmful incorrectness of what has developed is to state that 'sustainable' consumer options should not have to compete with harmful unsustainable actions.

      Many harmful unsustainable activities have developed because harmful and unsustainable activity (that everyone cannot develop do) has not been effectively excluded from competing for popularity and profit. And the real kicker is the way that popular and profitable actions develop powerful resistance to correction, not even requiring the unjust Propaganda defending the wealthiest as predicted by the Propaganda Model.

9793. One Planet Only Forever at 06:57 AM on 1 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      prove we are smart @7

      It is worth considering that a diversity of vehicle types would be desirable as long as each option was sustainable. The competition would then develop even more sustainable vehicles which could grow the economy by pushing to consume even less material in a fully recyclable way that requires even less energy, and that energy would be sustainable and be produced with ever improved material use.

      Advertising (propaganda) creating 'wants and beliefs in stories' that are harmful and unsustainable is a serious problem. The Propaganda Model I mention in my comment @8 applies. Creating dissatisfaction with a form of consumer consumption to encourage a new unsustainable consumption is a very damaging development. The result is more fortunate people tossing away perfectly functional things for a 'shinier newer' but harmfully unsusustainable technical development.

9794. MA Rodger at 06:55 AM on 1 August 2019
      Models are unreliable
      

      rupisnark @1125/1127,

      You ask if "the heat content of the Earth rather than the ocean relevant?" The short answer is neither of them as a 'total' heat content. The change in ocean heat content is relevant as this is by far the biggest thermal lag holding back global warming and a measure of it gives the easiest measure of the global energy imbalance. Note the change in Ocean Heat Content doesn't relate usefully to 'total' ocean heat content.

      But we haven't really the first idea about what Christy is measuring in his talk with the 750M & 6T. Let us assume it is some or other total heat content (down to absolute zero) in joules per square metre of surface and then divided by 3.4 (for his '100 unit' measure although those 'units' are an energy flux not an energy content). It is then as I set out @1119 with the total heat capacity of the atmosphere  roughly (mind these are seriously back-of-a-fag-packet-type calculation) equal to 750M. An equivalent value for the oceans would be 80x too small for the 6T value and the planet weighs 4,400x the oceans and is perhaps 10X as hot so the 6T would then be something like (44,000/80 =) 550x too big.

      @1125 you asked if such a total heat capacity of the entire Earth was relevant to the climate system. A heat capacity for the atmosphere is relevant because the best part of the atmosphere will be warmed pretty-much by the same amount as any surface temperature increase. This is not the case for the oceans. The ocean depths will warm very little relative to the surface and even in the ocean surface mixed layer there will be less warming than at the surface. And the bulk of the planet is very well thermally insulated from climate with the sort of temperature increase that would be catastrophuic at the surface unable to make any significant difference to the temperature gradient through the Earth's crust.

      These figures of Christy's, whatever they ar meant to be, should not be presented in the manner Christy does. They are nought but nonsense eye-candy.  Bad Christy!!

9795. scaddenp at 06:43 AM on 1 August 2019
      It's cosmic rays
      

      People with half-baked ideas on physics that they learnt of wikipedia confusing other people who would desparately like to be comforted about their predjudices. This is nonsense and directly contradicted by observations. If observations contradict what someone would expect from accepted theory, especially if not formally taught, then chances are it is the persons understanding of the theory not the theory itself that is wrong. Books on Amazon tell you how many suckers are out there. Dozens of peer-reviewed papers would be another story.

9796. One Planet Only Forever at 06:33 AM on 1 August 2019
      2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #30
      

      nigelj@5,

      My point is that the majority of the more fortunate need to be leading by setting helpful sustainable examples for every one else to aspire to achieve and improve on (be even better than). That majority would effectively correct and penalize any peer who failed to care to help set the required example.

      The more fortunate people investing in unsustainable pursuits of profit from harmful unsustainable actions by others is almost worse than themselves being the harmful consumers. So a lot of correction of perceptions is required primarily by the most fortunate since the most fortunate are the most powerful influence on the stories that get told and the perceptions that are developed.

      Edward Herman presented the Propaganda Model in 1988, with some assistance from Noam Chomsky, in "Manufacturing Consent". That explanation of how free market forces result in media fairly powerfully promoting the lintersts of the wealthy status quo has been show to continue to be valid today even though many things about media have changed. And it important to understand that the propaganda they evalaute happens through news, advertising, TV show, movies and even fashion magazines and things like the flak attacks on any presentation of understanding that would challenge the desired stories that support defend or excuse the powerful wealthy status quo.

      The way that improved awareness and understanding of climate science struggles to be popular and is unjustly challenged is a powerful case proving the legitimacy of Herman's Propaganda Model.

9797. Eclectic at 06:20 AM on 1 August 2019
      Models are unreliable
      

      Rupisnark, thank you for that reply.  But you still ought to make clear your thinking re "entire earth" ~ for it is (IMO) difficult for readers to understand the central thrust of the ideas being put forward, where brevity and possible ambiguities impede the communication.

      Brevity is the soul of wit.   But not always the soul of clear & transparent communication.   Perhaps you are not meaning to: but in the present case you seem to be giving the impression that you are striving at "the Hot Spot gnat" while disregarding the main substance i.e. the overall context.

9798. rupisnark at 05:47 AM on 1 August 2019
      Models are unreliable
      

      Eclectic @1126

      Sorry, all I was trying to do was get a response to my post @1120 where the point refering to the 6tr has not been answered (and I presumed the answer would have been a simple one). Obviously the Ocean Heat Content is important, the question is looking at the effect of that vs the heat content of the entire Earth.

      If Christy were correct about the high altitude atmosphere of the tropical zone it would lead a reasonable person to believe that changes may need to be made to climate models and to understading of what is going on overall.

      Moderator Response:

      [PS] Questions about the "hot spot" should be addressed here. See also comments and papers here. Good review of controversy here. Basically Christy's methodology is inadequate for observation he is claiming whereas hotspots shows as per model in better methods. Further confirmation in recent works (eg here). Christy is practising on the unwary and is notably absent from addressing the issues raised in the peer-reviewed literature as far as I am aware. Any further discussion should be on thread indicated.

9799. Eclectic at 05:45 AM on 1 August 2019
      'No doubt left' about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts
      

      Sam-qc @13 , 

      what do you consider the Uberto Crescenti's important points which you think might require answer or rebuttal?  It would save much time for readers, if you would pick out 2 or 3 of his points which (maybe) disprove the mainstream climate science.

      The OISM petition was a laughable travesty.  But I (and probably most people) haven't seen the Italian (or English translation) petition you mention.   It doesn't appear to be making worldwide headlines in the news (as one would think it ought to deserve, if it truly overthrows modern science).

9800. Eclectic at 05:23 AM on 1 August 2019
      Models are unreliable
      

      Rupisnark @1125 ,

      I would be grateful if you would clarify your first paragraph.  Specifically: "Is the heat content of the earth rather than the ocean relevant?"  

      Possibly you were aiming to cut corners, to shorten your post.  But the effect is both extraordinary and ambiguous.   ~What do you mean by "the heat content of the earth" as opposed to the concept of OHC (Ocean Heat Content) ?    Are you referring to totality of radioactive molten core & mantle etc., or referring to surface rocks/soil ocean and air . . . or some subcomponent?

      The relevance of the OHC is so hugely important to climate, that, in comparison the tropical tropospheric Hot Spot [per radiosonde measurements, rather weaker than many climate models had projected] is  verging on triviality in the overall context of AGW.

      Almost needless to say, the climate models' crucial aim is to predict/project future climate (as it affects our biosphere) of land, ocean, and lower troposphere ~ and "not so much" the 200-300mB high altitude atmosphere of the tropical zone (as Dr Christy seems to focus on).

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