Posted on 16 June 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz

Story of the week

A glance at this week's inventory of what experts tell us is extreme weather mayhem juiced by climate change points us in the general direction of our Story of the Week. Writing for Carbon Brief,  climate researcher Zeke Hausfather puts our historically unprecedented globally high surface temperature into the larger picture of human-caused climate change, in his analysis What record global heat means for breaching the 1.5C warming limit. 

Have we "reached 1.5C" with no looking back? Depending on data sets we've now flirted with or even kissed this temperature— but we're not yet living with it full time. Hausfather explains why we're not there yet. As part of that he delves into the rather tricky business of identifying exactly when we'll unequivocally crashed through this iconic number. The answer is "it depends," but regardless of measurement methods and reasoning we will definitely arrive at this destination.

1.5C in the rear view mirror: soon, or later? That's partly a matter of perspective. Dr. Hausfather is quite a bit younger than anybody working on our weekly news roundup, so we can't help but chuckle a little at this conclusion:

The findings show that, while the best estimate for crossing 1.5C has moved up by approximately two years compared to Carbon Brief’s earlier 2020 analysis, it remains most likely to happen in the late 2020s or early 2030s – rather than in the next few years.

For us ancients for whom 2015 seems a mere blink of the eye ago, "the next few years" definitely includes the early 2030s. From our viewpoint we're practically already there. In any case, regardless of the subjective nature of time we're running out of calendar pages to deal with our problem.

Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:

Before June 9

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2024, Skeptical Science, Marc Kodack & Doug Bostrom. Skeptical Science's own weekly compendium of climate research.
• Threatened by rising seas, the first of Panama’s Indigenous islanders are forced to leave, Climate, CNN, Photographs by Edu Ponces & Berta Vicente/RUIDO Photo, Story by Rachel Ramirez & Edu Ponces.
• 8 Young Alaskans Reignite a Court Fight Over Climate Change, Alaska Public Media, Kavitha George.
• As nuclear power flails in the U.S., White House bets big on a revival, Business, Washington Post, Evan Halper. "Price shock, engineering mishaps, long delays and a spate of corruption have not deterred the White House from its nuclear energy ambitions."
• Announcing the World Ocean Day 2024 Action Theme, World Ocean Day, Staff. "We currently face one o" the greatest threats ever to our blue planet and all its inhabitants: the climate crisis. It is all too clear that we need a healthy ocean for a healthy climate, and vice versa, and we need significantly stronger local, national, and international action from both government and corporate leaders. Now. "
• “Time Capsule” Rocks Uncover the Early History of the Earth and the Ocean, Ocean, Smithsonian, Naomi Greenberg. "Zircons that formed 4 billion years ago may hold clues as to what the Earth looked like in its early history and how it went from a fiery ball of lava to the planet we know today. "
• UK general election: Watch out for climate obstructionism, Climate Home News, Freddie Daley & Peter Newell. "Climate sceptic groups and their right-wing media allies have shifted from disputing science to exaggerating the economic costs of climate action and downplaying the benefits"
• Q&A: As Temperatures in Pakistan Top 120 Degrees, There’s Nowhere to Run, Justice & Health, Inside Climate News, Interview by Steve Curwood,. "An environmental lawyer’s frightening report from on the ground in Lahore: animals crumpling, waters rising, crops collapsing, an economy on the brink and millions displaced with nowhere safe to go."
• Climate Misinformation Is Rampant. AI May Be Able to Stop It, E&E News/Scientific American, Francisco "A.J." Camacho & Scott Waldman. "Researchers want to create an AI system that can quickly detect and debunk false or misleading claims about climate change"
• Bonn makes only lukewarm progress to tackle a red-hot climate crisis, Comment, Climate Home News, Partha Hefaz Shaikh. "Comment: At mid-year UN talks, negotiators have achieved little to get more help to those struggling with fiercer floods, cyclones and heatwaves in South Asia"

June 9

• 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23, Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, Doug Bostrom & John Hartz. A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 2, 2024 thru Sat, June 8, 2024.

June 10

• Climate change is deadly. Exactly how deadly? Depends who's counting, NPR Topics: Climate, Rebecca Hersher.
• The real lesson of the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler. When it comes to climate change, humanity is by far the most powerful force
• It`s Time To Ban Fossil Fuel Advertising, Brought To You By "The Godfathers Of Climate Chaos", CleanTechnica, Carolyn Fortuna.
• The Climate Backlash Is Here As European Voters Reject Green Policies, CleanTechnica, Steve Hanley.

June 11

• Climate misinformation overshadows record floods worldwide, Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, Manon Jacob.
• At a glance - Does positive feedback necessarily mean runaway warming?, Skeptical Science, John Mason.
• Experts: What do the European elections mean for EU climate action?, Carbon Brief, Simon Evans. This week’s European parliamentary election results saw parties on the populist right making big gains in France and Germany, while the historic “green wave” of 2019 receded.
• Cemeteries Can Be Damaged by Climate Change-and Provide Climate Refuge, Inside Climate News, Kiley Price. Severe flooding is unearthing caskets in cemeteries around the world. But research shows that some burial places can also be refuges for life.

June 12

• Swiss lawmakers reject climate ruling in favour of female climate elders, The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan. Co-president of the KlimaSeniorinnen says declaration is betrayal of older women
• Heavy rain and ‘life-threatening flooding’ hits Miami area and other parts of South Florida, Weather CNN, Mary Gilbert.
• Heavy rain and ‘life-threatening flooding’ hit South Florida, prompting the governor to declare an emergency, Weather, CNN, Mary Gilbert.
• Why scientists fear a second Trump term, and what they are doing about it, Climate, Washington Post, Maxine Joselow & Scott Dance. "Several federal agencies are working to safeguard research, including climate science, from future political meddling."
• Serious heat wave to scorch the East next week. Maps show areas at risk., Weather, Washington Post, Ian Livingston. "The heat wave could produce dangerously high temperatures over a large area for an extended period."

June 13

• Public more confident connecting increasing heat, wildfires with climate change, study finds, Phys.org, Molly Rosbach.
• El Niño is dead. Here’s what to expect in the coming months, Weather, CNN, Mary Gilbert.
• `Thumb on the Scale`: Big Oil Aims to Cash in on Hydrogen Tax Credits - with Natural Gas, DeSmog, Adam M. Lowenstein. At the Hydrogen Americas Summit, fossil fuel giants attempt to redefine “clean” hydrogen, with profits in mind.
• Major shift in global climate patterns is unfolding now, federal forecasters say, Weather, USA TODAY, Doyle Rice. "El Nin?o is officially over, federal forecasters announced Thursday, but we're not quite in a La Nin?a yet. We're in the middling 'ENSO-neutral' phase."
• Analysis: What record global heat means for breaching the 1.5C warming limit, Carbon Brief, Zeke Hausfather. Global temperatures in 2023 blew past expectations to set the warmest year on record, even topping 1.5C in one of the main datasets.

June 14

• Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media, Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler.
• Storm-battered Florida braces for a fourth day of floods after downpours transformed roads into canals and stranded drivers, Weather, CNN, Dalia Faheid & Robert Shackelford.
• Conservative Party Received 40 Percent of its Donations from Fossil Fuel Interests in First Week of Campaign, DeSmog, Sam Bright and Peter Geoghegan. Rishi Sunak’s Tories accepted hundreds of thousands from major donors with financial ties to the oil and gas industry.
• Bonn climate talks: Key outcomes from the June 2024 UN climate conference, Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff. Climate diplomats have finished another two weeks of intense negotiations in the German city of Bonn, discussing global efforts to cut emissions and protect people from climate hazards.

June 15

• Fact Brief - Is ocean acidification from human activities enough to impact marine ecosystems?, Skeptical Science, SkS Team.
• A powerful heat dome is just one of the extreme weather hazards coming next week, Weather, CNN, Mary Gilbert.