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Comments 98051 to 98100:

  1. Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    #160, thanks but I am not saying climate scientists are ignoring or denying these cycles. I am referring to this original post that claims: "As we can see, "it's just a natural cycle" isn't just a cop-out argument - it's something that scientists have considered, studied, and ruled out long before you and I even knew what global warming was." which I find to be a strong argument and therefore I am saying "Just because there may be AGW doesn't mean global natural cycles have no influence on global temperatures anymore. They always have and always will." I am saying nothing more, nothing less with that statement. I am not accusing anybody with that statement either, it's simply open and true. I am sorry you misinterpreted it and perceived it the way you did. Of course does an el nino alone or all el ninos combined for that matter not explain the current temp anomalies. I never stated that either. But we agree that el ninos and la ninas significantly affect global temperatures. That said, please look again and my comment #137 where I show how the ENSO pattern has changed the last 35 years and even more so the last 10 years, shifting from la nina dominated to el nino dominated events. How does that fit in is my question.
  2. OK global warming, this time it's personal!
    muoncounter at 03:22 AM on 18 January, 2011 re "after the flood, first come the home repair scam artists, then the cheesy lawyer commercials" The changes AGW have wrought! In earlier times it was astute stockmen that came after the flood, bringing large cattle herds to fatten on their way to market, grazing the prolific grasses that grew as the flood waters receded from the natural flood plains, leaving newly moistened and nutrient rich soil that early fortunes were made upon.
  3. Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    WDWK @ 158 - You should read this Tamino piece, which Daniel Bailey noted here. Accounting for and correcting the various known cycles, the underlying trend is very clear.
  4. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    NETDR: "I am only looking at 90 years because we will have transferred to renewable fuel by then" If there is no problem with continuing to pump CO2 into the atmosphere at the current, accelertaing rate, why would we switch to renewables?
  5. OK global warming, this time it's personal!
    barry at 23:39 PM on 17 January, 2011, perhaps the best of all handy references that enables rainfall Australia wide to be put into perspective at a glance, is a wall chart published by Queensland Natural Resources and Mines. Pictorially it displays annual rainfall Australia wide relative to historical records 1890 - 2004 with updates available for each succeeding year to present. Unfortunately it is no longer available as a wall chart as it would be of great assistance to those trying to interpret recent events in relation to historical records using graphs or statistics which don't convey the full picture and can easily be misinterpreted.
  6. Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    WWDK @158, "Just because there may be AGW doesn't mean global natural cycles have no influence on global temperatures anymore. They always have and always will." You are making a classic strawman argument there. Nobody int he know here is denying that the climate system has internal modes (e.g., ENSO, AMO), nor are they denying that they do modulate global SAT record to some extent. What these transient internal climate modes (which are cyclical by nature) do not explain is the sustained, long-term warming that is observed in the SAT record. An El Nino alone does not explain the current global SAT anomaly of +0.63 K (GISTEMP) relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, nor does it explain the +0.85 K warming observed since circa 1880. ENSO perturbs global annual SATs by about +/- 0.1 K, and at most about +/- 0.2 K for a strong event (Trenberth et al. 2002). From Tsonis et al. (2005): "Note that the contribution of ENSO to the long-term temperature trend in the last 50 years is about 0.06 C or 10% of the overall trend [Trenberth et al.,2002].However, as Figure 2a indicates, after a time scale of the order of 16 (5 + 11) months, El Nino’s role is to reverse that tendency." So much for the (false) claim made here and elsewhere that natural cycles are being "ignored" by climate scientists. To suggest so is incredibly patronizing to climate scientists.
  7. Monckton Myth #2: Temperature records, trends and El Nino
    The response lag-time between atmosphere and ENSO events is well-known to be 3-4 months (e.g. here). Hence, one has to look 3-4 months ahead in time to see how global temperatures start and end to respond and not compare month to month values. That said, the previous el nino started officially June 2009 (month 6 of 2009) and lasted until April 2010 (month 4 of 2010). The current la nina started officially July 2010 (month 7 of 2010). Let's take a look when the global atmosphere started to respond to both events using first the lower bound response: 3 months and then the upper bound response: 4 months. 3 months lag El Nino: atmosphere started to respond September 2009 (month 6+3=9) 2009 and ended to respond July (month 4+3=7) 2010. La Nina: atmosphere started to respond October (month 7+3) 2010. 4 months lag El Nino: atmosphere started to respond October 2009 (month 6+4=10) 2009 and ended to respond August 2010 (month 4+4=8). La Nina: atmosphere started to respond November 2011 (month 7+4=11). Now these are lower and upper bound assumptions, but it shows that 2010 was influenced between 7-8 months out of 12 by the previous el nino and between 2-3 months out of 12 by the current la nina. Hence, it is safe to say that 2010 was mainly influenced by the previous el nino and not the current la nina. Taking also into account that the past el nino had a peak strength of 1.8, whereas the current la nina's peak is -1.4, it is even more save to say that the el nino had both a longer and stronger effect on 2010 than the current la nina.
  8. apiratelooksat50 at 06:12 AM on 19 January 2011
    Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    Muon @ 146 I know the difference between C and F. Apparently you failed to follow my link. I plainly referenced I was using the NOAA website and provided the link. It uses Imperial units. The website allows you to look at data from 1895 to 2010. I used their software to generate graphs and data pertaining to each decade by using the most recent 12-month period for rankings. Go check it out. "BTW, we 'came out of the LIA' decades ago, so you can stop repeating that. Besides, its a topic for another thread." I did not reference the LIA in that post. I referenced only the ice age, and it stands to reason the Earth warms coming out of a cold period. Are you going to answer about the temperature drop over the last decade? The decadal average is 0.12 F over that time period for a total rise of 1.26 F.
    Moderator Response: If you actually read the original post of this thread, you will see "the Milankovitch cycles that drive glaciation show that we should be, in fact, very slowly going into a new ice age (but anthropogenic warming is virtually certain to offset that influence)."
  9. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    NETDR i've tried to reproduce your data but i couldn't. I was able to reproduce only the same linear trend when using alog10 of concentration instead of the natural logarithm, but a different offset. Could you please give more details on what you did? By the way, using the correct logarithm I was able to reproduce Tamino's results (no surprise here); I can confirm that the coefficient of the quadratic term is statistically significant. Definitely CO2 is rising faster than exponential, let alone linearly.
  10. keithpickering at 05:23 AM on 19 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #2: Temperature records, trends and El Nino
    To be fair ... El Niño and La Niña are known to lead global temps by 6 months or so, which means that the 2010 temperature year should be most correctly compared to the SOI year of 7/2009 to 6/2010, which is fairly strong El Niño throughout. Using the same technique, one can also predict that early 2011 temps will be quite cool compared to recent years, as the current La Niña seems to be a doozy.
  11. Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    #152. if it is equally OK to say that it's a tie because of the la nina, it is equally OK to say that it's a tie because of the el nino. Actually it is more correct to say the latter due to the 3-6 months lack in response in global atmospheric temperatures to ENSO events and since the el nino was during fall-winter '09 through spring '10, whereas the la nina didn;t start until june/july '10 this delayed response caused '10 to be obviously mainly affected by the el nino and not the la nina. Please stop tap dancing to your own little drum and also accept facts that do not (always) support your thoughts and theories. Just because 2010 was a tie with 2005 and since it was an el nino year doesn't mean there is no AGW, it simply means that it was warmer because of an el nino (and AGW?). Just because there may be AGW doesn't mean global natural cycles have no influence on global temperatures anymore. They always have and always will. Please remember: no matter how beautiful the guess is, or how brilliant or famous the guesser is. If in the end the experiment shows the guess is wrong than that's all there is to it.
  12. Dikran Marsupial at 05:18 AM on 19 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    NETDR@26 The log of an exponential function is a linear function, regardless of what the "acceleration" is. Say we have an exponential function f(x) = A*exp{B*x} The second derivative (or acceleration is) f''(x) = A*B^2exp(B*x) Note the "acceleration" depends on the constants A and B. Now if we compute the log of f(x) we get g(x) = log(f(x)) = log{A} + B*x which is a linear function, whatever the values of A and B, and hence whatever the acceleration (which depends on A and B). I hope we agree so far. Now the radiative forcing due to CO2 is a logarithmic function of atmospheric concentration Forcing = C*log(f(x)) = C*log{A} + C*B*x This is also a linear function, but the slope depends on the rate constant of the exponential (B), but it also depends on the constant C which represents climate sensitivity. Thus whether the acceleration in the growth of CO2 is important depends on climate sensitivity, so you can't just dismis it without mentioning climate sensitivity. I appologise if making the argument in such basic mathematical terms appears condescending, but I couldn't think of any other way of demonstrating the flaw in your argument.
  13. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    Dana1981: "It's bad enough to cherrypick UAH, but even worse to cherrypick it over a timeframe during 25% of which it didn't even exist!" Speaking of cherry-picking UAH, I've noticed that over the same time period as the RSS, UAH trends significantly lower (though still upwards). I don't know why that is and it'd be presumptuous of me to speculate, but it seems to make UAH more attractive as a source for the obfuscation of temperature trends.
  14. Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    #155. Please see my previous comment (#151). The current la nina is NOT the strongest on record. Current SST anomalies are about the same (0.1C lower) than the 2008 La Nina which was the weakest "peak" la nina since 1975 and the lowest "peak" la nina since 1950. (unfortunately I can't past a pictures here, otherwise you'd see exactly what I mean, but I can refer to my another post to give you an idea: here; #13. Now, time will tell if the current la nina will get any or much stronger, though most indications don't point that way. Also, and as I pointed out previously, global temperatures LACK 3-6months behind in response to ENSO events. Hence, most of the atmosphere won't respond until right around now...
  15. actually thoughtful at 05:02 AM on 19 January 2011
    Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    Apirate, There isn't much I can do if you insist up is down and down is up. The null hypothesis is the one where you don't monkey with the system. Pumping in 6,000,000,000 tons annually of CO2 into a basically closed systems is a textbook example of monkeying with the system. Take a look at : http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm I admire those of you in a quixotic battle with reality, but I do think it requires being impervious to some important facts to maintain, for example, that it is PDO, or ENSO. Natural cycles are, by definition, cyclical. For natural variability to be in play, what went up must come down. Barring an external forcing (which our clever climate scientists tell us is CO2 - but you want to ignore that, which leaves us with NO forcing) - the longest cycle ever claimed is a 60 year cycle. If you start in 1950 you are toast (we are at 60 years - no cooling). If you start at 1980 - (and ignore lots and lots and lots and lots of counter-facts) - you have 30 years of non-stop cooling to get this cycle to come back to the 1980 start. Good luck. I don't mean to be rude but you have broken my system - it only works when you use facts and valid logic. You came back with a muddled logic, which is so confusing that you can't properly frame the topic - or even see how bad your initial conceptual frame is. I urge you to come up with another way of thinking about it - as your starting position is one that I (pessimistically perhaps) think you won't be able to think your way out of until the data is even more overwhelming. Here are some ideas for other approaches (if it helps, we can call the your first effort a draw, as I am at a loss as to how to throw you a logical life preserver - your concept is internally consistent, but doesn't allow you to recognize reality until a scientific proof is available). Recognizing, of course, that science doesn't have proofs. Science has theories. Theories that explain the world, and are considered "generally accepted" when there is no better theory available and the preponderance of evidence supports the theory. This is the case with climate science (sometimes called AGW). So here are some ideas and ways to think about it that should avoid the shoals of your flawed null hypothesis. 1. Why is warming more at night? 2. What evidence will convince you that AGW is correct? What will convince you it is false (bonus if you can get to your "final answer" within the decade). 3. Can you offer off a complete theory with an equivalent level of explanatory power (if you understand CO2 and greenhouse gases are causing the warming, you can explain coral reef bleaching, rising sea levels (and their rate), changes in weather patterns, loss of mass at arctic and Greenland ice sheets, loss of mass at the South Pole and on and on). If your mind takes you to the null hypothesis - fight the magnetic pull of that closed circle argument. Once you get back on that track you could find you have no escape (there is, but it requires getting out of that endless loop).
  16. The Physical Chemistry of Carbon Dioxide Absorption
    I have just discovered an excellent reference that clearly discusses clouds, interferences, etc. My contribution (GWPPT6) was meant to be a description of the effect of CO2 as a GHG that can be calculated without the use of a computer. As such it has significant limitations, in particular it does not deal with any of the important effects of interaction (e.g. between H2O and CO2) that are dealt with in the reference. The upshot of the reference is that the simple approach of GWPPT6 overestimates the GHG effect . That result is fine with me because it was my only purpose to describe the basic physics of the absorption. At any rate for those who wish a signifcantly more inclusive, but very clearly presented, description of the GHG effect I strongly recommend, G. A. Schmidt, et.al.,J. Geophys. Res.,Vol 115, D20106 (2110). In this paper the authors distinguish between a maximum, acting alone, effect (which is what is calculated in GWPPT6) and a minmum effect (upon removal of CO2, for example) where the effect in question is calculated with the inclusion of vater vapor and clouds. The result that relates to GWPPT6 is that the "Single Factor Removal", i.e. the effect as calculated with all interactions and then with all intereactions with CO2 removed, results in a decrease in the current GHG effect of 14.0%, while the "Single Factor Addition) (add in CO2 with but ignoring interactions) is 24.6%
  17. It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
    Indeed; however, MEI is a ranking system not a value or measurement in it self, such as a SST for example. MEI looks at "all" effects of la ninas and el ninos, combines those and ranks the outcome: six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific, some of which not related or only indirectly related to temperature: e.g. sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky. ONI is a SST. In addition, MEI is bi-monthly, ONI tri-monthly. Hence the fact that some bi-monhtly MEI rankings are high doesn't necessarily mean it is also the coldest (lowest SST) la nina, which it obviously is not according to NOI. We indeed need to wait and see how the current la nina develops; in December SSTs crept up a bid, but have decreased again somewhat in January. The most recent pattern of SST anomalies is similar to that observed since mid November 2010. I'd expect the NDJ season somewhere between -1.3 and -1.6 at the most. Note that global temperatures lack often 3-6 months in response to ENSO events.
  18. actually thoughtful at 04:32 AM on 19 January 2011
    Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    Eric (skeptic) My information comes from NASA. "The solid record of La Nina strength only goes back about 50 years and this latest event appears to be one of the strongest ones over this time period," said climatologist Bill Patzert of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California." The language was clear than I remember, so I can live with "one of the strongest". (the link is long, and my patience short - you can google the quote and see the story - it is not the data, but Bill Patzert's analysis.)
  19. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    NETDR, you're still doing the analysis wrong. You don't fit a curve to the log data. If the log data is linear then the growth is exponential. If the log data has grown faster than linearly (as is the case for the CO2 data), then the growth is faster than exponential. Tamino has already shown all of this. You're just doing the analysis wrong and thus arriving at the wrong conclusions.
  20. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    Dikran As is commonly accepted the log of the CO2 is proportional to the effect of the CO2. The log is increasing so slowly that the effect increases slowly too. Saying something is exponential is just hand waving if the exponential part is very low, which it is. Since the slope of the effect [log] is .0018 the increase is small. in 90 years the effect increases 16 %. The effect of the second derivative as shown above is negligible and is negative . [-5E-05x3 ]
  21. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    All, This is one of the fallacious statements made by Monckton: "CO2 concentration is rising in a straight line at just 2 ppmv/year at present and, even if it were to accelerate to an exponential rate of increase, the corresponding temperature increase would be expected to rise merely in a straight line." That first claim has been shown to be demonstrably false. The second claim is a "what if", but in the real world the appropriate mathematical and statistical treatment of the data (and appropriate nomenclature, as noted by Dikram @24) show that the we are already there. This really is a no brainer and it is disturbing that people are willing to go out on a limb and shred their own credibility by trying to defend Monckton's fallacies.
  22. Monckton Myth #2: Temperature records, trends and El Nino
    I have a question which I hope will not be considered too off-topic: In looking at the history of temperatures in the 20th century, we see a slowing of temperature rise which I guess goes roughly from 1940 through 1970 or so. In previous discussions I see that this is attributed to sulfate aerosols. OTOH the fact that the slowing occurred roughly starting in 1940 makes me wonder if WW2 had something to do with this. (This is just a historical side note to the larger discussion, I have no hidden agenda.) Thanks to anyone who cares to respond.
    Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Welcome to Skeptical Science. You start off with an excellent question. I won't go into it, as it is off-topic here, but there's a couple of nice posts on that topic here and here. Please post any further questions and comments on that subject on the relevant thread. For other questions, the Search function, located in the upper left of every page here, is your friend.
  23. Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    NETDR @153, Feel free to quantitatively demonstrate that "The PDO is a natural cycle and I [and others on this thread] contend the warming from 1978 to 1998 can easily be explained by it." on the appropriate thread. IMHO, you would probably have better luck explaining more of the variance in the global SAT record using the AMO than the PDO. "From 1998 to present it s debatable whether there is any warming" Also on the wrong thread, and you seem to have been hoodwinked by Monckton et al's misinformation. Robert Way uses various datasets to dismisses that myth here. This will suffice for now:
  24. Dikran Marsupial at 02:43 AM on 19 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    @NETDR "So the rate of acceleration term is tiny." That is irrelevant; if the rise in CO2 is exponential (or faster) then the increase in radiative forcing will be (super-) linear, regardless of the acceleration. The log of an exponential is a linear function, it is a fact of mathematics that can't be circumvented by fitting polynomials. I think part of the problem is that there is a colloquial meaning of "exponential" used in hyperbolic statements about uncontrollable runaway growth. There is another mathematical definition. In this case, it is the latter that is relevant, but some are using the "hyperbolic" definition and hence are surprised that the deviation from a linear model is not that large. However, to the more mathematically inclined, that is no big surprise.
  25. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    I think the central problem in Monckton's claim of "log(exponential) = linear" has perhaps not quite been addressed here... The reason people think of our growth in emissions as roughly exponential is that really is the standard assumption of economics - a roughly constant growth rate from year to year. That translates into a close to exponential rise in CO2 emissions, assuming carbon intensity doesn't change (or changes itself at an exponential rate) with a doubling time of around 30 years (say 2%/year growth). But the *total* CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is a combination of the *pre-industrial* value (280 ppm) plus this exponentially growing anthropogenic piece - i.e. something like: CO2(year) = 270 ppm + 100 ppm * 2^((year - 2000)/30) In the long run, that expression is going to be dominated by the exponential term. But for the next 50 years or so it's a *SUM* of a flat term plus an exponential. And the logarithm of that is not something that rises linearly, but something that rises faster than linear (for now).
  26. Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    Moderator I totally disagree! The discussion about the PDO belongs on this thread. The name of this thread is "Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?" The PDO is a natural cycle and I [and others on this thread] contend the warming from 1978 to 1998 can easily be explained by it. The period 1978 to 1998 is the only period when there was unequivocal warming which has been linked to CO2 [incorrectly in my opinion] From 1998 to present it s debatable whether there is any warming. If so it is slight at best.
    Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] As you well know, having commented on the PDO thread several times (and been corrected several times there), in-depth discussions of various topics at Skeptical Science need to be placed on the appropriate threads. As you were counseled before, you maywill need to learn to use the Search function to do that. Discussions on PDO belong on the PDO thread already linked for you. As for the "no warming since 1998" meme (you are aware, aren't you, that 2005 and 2010 were both hotter than 1998?), removing the impact of natural cycles like ENSO and other things like volcanoes, explain this (from Open Mind):
  27. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    First of all I was incorrect the exponent is 2. [I saw it after I hit "submit"!] We don't need to assume a constant acceleration. The 3 rd order equation for a best fit is: y = -5E-05x3 + 0.0159x2 + 0.7345x + 312 So the rate of acceleration term is tiny. The sample is over 50 years so any acceleration should be evident. I am only looking at 90 years because we will have transferred to renewable fuel by then. Mark R said "You test for the acceleration in a standard way (trend in the residuals) and you find it. You test it against an exponential increase too and you find an acceleration there. " I like the third order polynomial better. I also took the log of the CO2 data and plotted it. The slope was .0018. The equation is: y = 0.0018x + 2.4878 Over a 90 year period the rate of increase in effect is almost negligible. You could do the increase in increase forever and the effect is negligible.
  28. Not a cite for Soare eyes
    Looking at the page for the International Journal of the Geosciences, it has an "open access" icon at the top, next to the name of the journal. International Journal of the Geosciences- Open Access Does this mean that anybody with the price of publication can now be a "peer reviewed" author? There appears to be another paper on climate science in Volume 1, Number 3 of IJGS "Recent Energy Balance of the Earth" by Knox and Douglass:
    A recently published estimate of Earth’s global warming trend is 0.63 ± 0.28 W/m2, as calculated from ocean heat content anomaly data spanning 1993-2008. This value is not representative of the recent (2003-2008) warming/cooling rate because of a “flattening” that occurred around 2001-2002. Using only 2003-2008 data from Argo floats, we find by four different algorithms that the recent trend ranges from –0.010 to –0.161 W/m2 with a typical error bar of ±0.2 W/m2. These results fail to support the existence of a frequently-cited large positive computed radiative imbalance.
    Gee, that's a surprise. Using a shorter interval obscures the trend? Who knew?
  29. Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 01:31 AM on 19 January 2011
    Global Warming and Cold Winters
    You can not ignore the opinions of this discussion, Professor Mike Lockwood: “There is no doubt that the frequency of those blocking events in winter is higher when solar activity is low,” says Lockwood. “What was a slight surprise is that the sun was changing the jet stream, but only when the jet stream has travelled across the Atlantic and begins hitting land over Europe.” At present in the Arctic - the Arctic Circle - half a year continues night. Large extra warmth can come only from the equatorial zone (system: NAO - AO - AMO - AMOC).
  30. Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    #151: "it is more correct to say that due to the past el nino we have a temperature tie" That seems like a lot of fancy tap dancing to explain what clearly stands on its own. "If the warming trend continues, as is expected, if greenhouse gases continue to increase, the 2010 record will not stand for long," said James Hansen, the director of GISS. Perhaps one should ask 'why was this el Nino so strong? why is the following la Nina also so strong?' Perhaps there is somewhat of a longer term mechanism driving those oscillations. But ask those questions on the appropriate thread.
  31. Hockey stick is broken
    Your second graph, LandyJim, I presume comes from Monckton, or someone similar ? The latest date on it would have to be 1994, I would imagine. How do you think it would look with the temperatures up to 2010 - whatever the temperature scale on that graph actually means and for which location. Do you know ? What do you believe you are trying to show with the Vostock graph - that temperature has varied in the past ? How does that relate to today ? There are more of these you can see here and here, if you like those sort of long-term measurements. As for the fourth one, it isn't from the Abrupt Climate Change paper as you stated; and neither is it from the The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland" as suggested in your subsequent post. Well, I couldn't find it, anyway, after a quick look, although I did find the data. Perhaps you could point it out more exactly ? You can even see EPICA and VOSTOK compared here, if you would like.
  32. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    OK..on reflection comments about Vineyards are unhelpful and very misleading. I was remembering statements made in History of Roman Britain from School and as I am not really a wine drinker..I was not aware of the extend of modern British Vinyards. The Most Northerly I have found, which clearly blows my earlier comments well out of the water is this one.. Holmfirth Vineyard, Woodhouse Farm, Woodhouse Lane, Holmbridge, Holmfirth HD9 2QR This is surprisingly close to surviving sections of Hadrian's Wall and thus I think in future I will ignore Vinyards and Hadrian's wall comments... Apologies for that.
  33. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    Perhaps this would be worth a short post? You can estimate final CO2 from current trends, assuming we continue as usual. First I tested to see whether quadratic was a good fit. It's ok: you can test for acceleration by assuming C=At^2 where C is carbon, t time and A constant. Rearrange to get C^(1/2)=At. Not plot the two together and if the risiduals (difference between a straight line and the actual results) are not random then you have some kind of acceleration. In this case there is an acceleration and it's positive: we are increasing faster than with the square of time. We can use this to put a MINIMUM on the amount of CO2 we expect by 2100 assuming we continue on as Mauna Loa data says we have for the past 50 years or so. Take the annual differences in CO2 and then plot them against year then fit a line: the trend is the acceleration in change of CO2 per year per year. It is 0.026 +/- 0.04. You can assume a constant acceleration (i.e a quadratic) which we know is a MINIMUM for the CO2 changes we expect. Then you can use a SUVAT to determine final CO2: s = ut + (1/2)at^2 Where u is the current rate of increase of CO2, about 2ppm/yr averaged from 2001-10. a is the acceleration, or the 0.026 we just worked out. Therefore final s, or CO2 concentration in 90 years time at 2100 is just over 680 ppmv. (This is LOWER than the actual better fit) So we expect an additional minimum of 3 W m^-2 of CO2 radiative forcing in the next 90 years from the Mauna Loa data. On top of the ~1.8 W m^-2 from the past 160 years. Obviously an acceleration if you bother to look at the Mauna Loa data. Which Monckton doesn't. His analysis is simply wrong too: exp * ln is only linear in special cases. I did this in a rush literally on the back of an envelope and excel. Off to lunch, but I'll check it later. Please correct me if I got it wrong!
  34. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    You don't need anything other than a simple spreadsheet to check the Mauna Loa data. Check the residuals from the linear fit: if they're random then there's no acceleration. They're not, so there is. You can plot the data logarithmically like Tamino did (I did it for annual, rather than 10-yr means). And the annual data residuals show acceleration above exponential! (although we should be careful with individual periods - 1990 saw the USSR collapse for example) You test for the acceleration in a standard way (trend in the residuals) and you find it. You test it against an exponential increase too and you find an acceleration there.
  35. Dikran Marsupial at 23:51 PM on 18 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    @chemware - looking to see what simple equations fit a finite sample of data best tells you next to nothing about the process that generates the data. For example, as you point out, a quadratic is a Taylor series expansion of a more complex (or simpler) function, so if a quadratic fits well, it may simply be because it is approximating an exponential. If a more flexible quadratic fits better than an exponential, it may simply be that the quadratic is better able to model the random variability in the data, than the less flexible exponential, and hence the difference in fit is meaningless as it is down to random chance (this is known as "over-fitting" in statistics). You don't need economic modelling to make inferences about emissions, as good records of emissions are kept (by e.g. the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center). The fact that the airborne fraction (the proporion of anthropognic emissions that accumulate in the atmosphere) is approximately constant, gives support from physical modelleling that emissions are rising approximately exponentially (I have done the differential equations myself to check that this is the case). The test Tamino uses to establish that the rise is faster than exponetial is unequivocal. If it were merely exponential, then taking logs should give a straight line; the fact that the resulting line curves upwards is definitive proof that the rise is faster than exponential. This remains true regardless of whether a quadratic or any other function provides a better least-squares fit.
  36. Not a cite for Soare eyes
    re 25: Keith, I tried to explain in my post that he hasn't 'eliminated' CO2 caused warming, he's simply suppressed it. You can still spot it: a constant rate of warming from CO2 becomes a constant offset in his graph. An-above-linear rate of CO2 warming would appear as some function with a positive gradient. But Soares manipulates the data to minimises this effect whilst maximising noise. If you want to look at the noise then that's useful, if you're trying to find whether CO2 caused warming exists then choosing to minimise it and then acting all surprised when it's too noisy to see if it's there (actually, to IGNORE that it's too noisy and simply claim that it isn't) is ridiculous. The conclusions of the paper are utter dross.
  37. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    #168. lol Eric! I thought I'd found a Roman Vineyard at Hadrian's Wall, but it would appear to be a new one, from here Since the publication of the first edition in 2004 the northern limit of English vineyards has advanced from Mount Pleasant, Lancashire, to Accomb, Yorkshire, within 5km of Hadrian's Wall. The book also states the following: The latest predictions of global warming show that the average summer temperature in southern England may rise by 4.5-5.0 degrees C. by 2080 and by 6.0 degrees by 2100. The new edition describes how these data can be used to predict the areas where different grape varieties may be planted across the UK. Some parts of southern England may be too hot for viticulture by 2080. Sobering stuff!
  38. Eric (skeptic) at 23:22 PM on 18 January 2011
    Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    Since I have never posted a graphic, hopefully the moderators will allow me this one
    Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Graphics are permitted when they pertain to the topic of the thread. Give us the context of how this is on-topic or we'll have to delete it. Thanks!
  39. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    #165. LandyJim It is a fact that Romans in Britain (AD73-AD490~) grew wine grapes as far north as Hadrian Wall..currently anywhere further north than Bristol and you need a straight jacket as your barking mad. I can't find any evidence that the Romans grew grapes any farther north than Lincolnshire, looks like it was almost all imported. Can you point us to some? The most northerly vineyard currently in the UK is in Camforth, Lancs which is a bit farther north than Bristol (about 200 miles). The English Wine Producers have over 30 barking mad vineyards located in the Midlands and the North alone.
  40. Eric (skeptic) at 23:15 PM on 18 January 2011
    It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
    Re: Strength of current La Nina (from other thread). There seem to be conflicting measurements. The one I and others posted was this table: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml But the chart on this page http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/ shows it historically strong. Apparantly the table is ONI, measured by SST differences only whereas the latter graph is MEI (M for Multivariate) taking into account more variables. IMO the MEI would be a better indication of La Nina effects, so I would call it strong (strongest since the mid 70's). We also will have to wait and see about the duration, it hasn't been around long.
  41. Hockey stick is broken
    Here is another reputable reference for the GISP2 Ice Core Data sets from Richard Alley ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt And here is the abstract from the top of at work. ABSTRACT: Greenland ice-core records provide an exceptionally clear picture of many aspects of abrupt climate changes, and particularly of those associated with the Younger Dryas event, as reviewed here. Well-preserved annual layers can be counted confidently, with only 1% errors for the age of the end of the Younger Dryas 11,500 years before present. Ice-flow corrections allow reconstruction of snow accumulation rates over tens of thousands of years with little additional uncertainty. Glaciochemical and particulate data record atmospheric-loading changes with little uncertainty introduced by changes in snow accumulation. Confident paleothermometry is provided by site-specific calibrations using ice-isotopic ratios, borehole temperatures, and gas-isotopic ratios. Near-simultaneous changes in ice-core paleoclimatic indicators of local, regional, and more-widespread climate conditions demonstrate that much of the Earth experienced abrupt climate changes synchronous with Greenland within thirty years or less. Post-Younger Dryas changes have not duplicated the size, extent and rapidity of these paleoclimatic changes.
  42. Hockey stick is broken
    @JMurphy #62 I will concede that the graph could have a better quality about it, however it was used for illustrative purposes. Graph 3 of the Vostok Ice cores comes from a Climate campaigner in New Zealand http://mclean.ch/climate/global_warming.htm who is a member of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition http://www.nzclimatescience.org/ This information originates in a very reputable and peer reviewed article: Petit, J.R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N.I. Barkov, J.-M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Benders, J. Chappellaz, M. Davis, G. Delayque, M. Delmotte, V.M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V.Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, L. Pépin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436. If you would like to read more information about the Vostok cores, you can here.. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/vostok.html The last graph is a reproduction of one that appeared in a Science Online and Journal Peer reviewed article which is actually pro AGW. There is credit for the article in the image if you look. R. B. Alley1, J. Marotzke2, W. D. Nordhaus3, J. T. Overpeck4, D. M. Peteet5, R. A. Pielke Jr.6, R. T. Pierrehumbert7, P. B. Rhines8,9, T. F. Stocker10, L. D. Talley11 and J. M. Wallace8 And an online link is here http://www.sciencemag.org/content/299/5615/2005.abstract If you wish to see other articles written by Richard Alley.. http://www.sciencemag.org/search?author1=R.+B.+Alley&sortspec=date&submit=Submit What I am am saying is that we should not dismiss natural variations in the climate, we must not dismiss influences on those variations, only then can the impact that we have be truly assessed and then action taken accordingly. To me that is common sense.
  43. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    @Muoncounter. None of my posts are meant to be or taken as ideological rant. The comments I have made are not specifically off topic they are simply explaining a truth which is connected to and related to the response I gave. Whether we like it or not, most things in science are interconnected, and treating them is isolation creates confusion and misleading statements.
  44. Hockey stick is broken
    There's a quick discussion of LandyJim's first 'graph' here. There's much more wrong with it than just a dodgy y-axis.
  45. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    @15 Ian Love: Actually, a quadratic can have physical meaning as a second order Taylor expansion of a more complex function. In this instance, the rising atmospheric [CO2] is a function of economic activity and CO2 sequestration mechanisms. Economic + physical chemistry modeling, anyone ? I'm not at work right right now, but I'll have another play tomorrow with TC2D - I'm intrigued to see which simple equations best describe the data.
  46. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    I agree with Phillippe #7. Deniers deny for emotional reasons, and ethereal stuff like data do not reach them. The sad part is that their shortsight is caused by an attachment to stuff that is threatened by the very AGW they don't want to see. A new world of changing climate will be a major enemy of free market, business-as-usual or individual freedoms
  47. Hockey stick is broken
    @Muoncounter: Please explain to me where in my post I have made a personal attack and to whom did I direct it? Regarding information about the graphs...fair point, but if you look at the links, they are hardly dim store blogs (surely is that not a personal attack on the blogger?) One is actually on this site. Bleating is something we all do...the western world is bleating about Climate change and ignoring the bigger picture which is far more important in my opinion. I thought my post made it clear what my position is, I do not agree with AGW, but I do agree with not polluting the environment, so I am not opposed to cleaning things up, just for the right reasons. I have kept the post on topic, it is about the hockey stick is it not? Well to counter one argument you need to justify that stance, I think I did that rather well.
  48. Zvon.org guide to Skeptic Arguments at Skeptical Science
    The guide is intended as a search interface to SkS and contains direct links to primary literature (and Web of Science) which are often not present in the original rebuttals - and as the links are via doi they should work even after a few years. And obviously you do not have to use it. I know about one user who will use it regularly - myself. :)
  49. Monckton Myth #3: Linear Warming
    The Mona Loa data shows the increase in CO2 to be approximately linear so far.
    A very short section of a curve is also 'approximately linear', but it isn't, 'actually'. As pointed out above, the non-linearity of CO2 increase is evident from the linear trend superimposed in your own graph. Do you agree, NEDT, that the exponent is 2, rather than 0.122?
  50. Zvon.org guide to Skeptic Arguments at Skeptical Science
    There is a very basic question not answered here: what is the point of using the Zvon Guide to SkS instead of SkS itself?

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