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snowhare at 22:19 PM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
@29, fydijkstra: ""No cool predictions, no warm predictions, because the climate is unpredictable. It is a chaotic system with many unknown and ununderstood factors." *Most* (all?) real systems are chaotic in some degree or fashion. That something is chaotic and hence unpredictable *in detail* is not the same thing as being unpredictable *in broad*. If you turn on the cold and hot taps to your bathtub and begin filling it, the detailed water motions in the tub are quite chaotic and impossible to predict making the precise motion and temperature of a specific location in the tub unpredictable over more than a few seconds at a time. That doesn't mean that (if the stopper is in) the tub isn't going to fill up at a quite predictable rate and with a quite predictable average temperature at any given moment. You should read an old essay by Isaac Asimov for the Skeptical Inquirer titled "The Relativity of Wrong". -
Argus at 22:09 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
JMurphy 153, I just made a guess that most of those who are active on this website (and who seem to share the exact same convictions) are, or at least seem to be, male, judging from their names and the way they write. It is interesting that you have such exact sociological data on those you categorize as skeptics/deniers. What is the source of that? -
Argus at 21:54 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
#143 Alec Cowan, I have no response to that - I was just challenged to produce some data. #145, michael sweet, As for links, I think it's too much work to edit complete link information to all items, with the current comment posting system. You can google like I did - you should have enough search keywords/key figures. Since you live in Florida I can give you the Florida link directly (cut in two parts): http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/ coldest_december_on_record_in.html The UK stuff came from: http://en.wordpress.com/tag/record-cold/ The Åland item is in Swedish: http://www.abounderrattelser.fi/news/2010/12/nytt-koldrekord-pa-aland.html -
Ann at 21:35 PM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
@29 “Scientists should not make any predictions about the climate” If the existence of unknown factors would stop scientists from studying a subject and making predictions, no science could ever be developed. Chaotic systems can be studied, just like any other system. It is true that it is much harder (or sometimes even impossible) to make accurate detailed predictions for a chaotic system, nevertheless it is often possible to draw general conclusions. Climate scientists have predicted global warming, and thus far, they seem to be right. Regarding climate change we have to do what we do with all risks: assess the risk, based upon the incomplete knowledge we have, and act accordingly. Ignoring the knowledge we have and conclude: “we don’t know and we will never know” is perhaps a comforting thought for some people, but it is not a very scientific attitude. I don’t think this attitude can be classified as “skeptic”. I therefore propose to use the term: “climate ostrich” henceforth. -
Hyperactive Hydrologist at 20:55 PM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
@29 I don't know the IPCC ensemble models seem to be doing a pretty good job thus far. Also how are we expected to make informed decisions about things such as water resource management and flood control without future prediction to base them on. As long as the models are based on known physical processes and quantify the uncertainties there is no reason to ignore them. As our knowledge of the atmospheric system and computing power increases so will the accuracy of the models. -
stefaan at 20:16 PM on 4 January 2011We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
It often strikes me that the argument 'we are recovering from the LIA' is given as a physical reason for heating. Complete nonsense of course. A cup of hot water is cooling when you put it on the table not because 'it is recovering from its hot temperature' but because there is an energy transfer from the hot system (your hot water) to the environment. THAT is a reason. The fact that 'your cup is recovering from its hot temperature' is a CONSEQUENCE of that energy transfer. If however you put the table on fire, your cup will not cool despite its desire to 'recover from its hot temperature'. -
stefaan at 20:01 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Hello, Is the year average of 2010 already published?Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] See the last paragraph of Michael Sweet's comment here. -
vank at 19:55 PM on 4 January 2011Antarctica is gaining ice
This your idea not mine....voting rights and nuclear weapons vs. ice core samples and graphs(interesting argument. The "rephrasing ideas" system is only a sophists trick. Its a graph and it tells something or we can all play Struthio camelism. -
fydijkstra at 19:54 PM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Scientists should not make any predictions about the climate. No cool predictions, no warm predictions, because the climate is unpredictable. It is a chaotic system with many unknown and ununderstood factors. The illusion that the climate can be predicted is an example of Kelvin's fallacy: the assumption that there are no unknown unknowns. For the time beeing the warming by greenhouse gasses seems to have been compensated by other factors. The El Niño of 2010 has not been able to break the record temperatures of 1998 (according to the HadCrut data set, which seems to be the least unrealiable). This could have been caused by the very long solar minimum, but nobody knows for sure. If the next solar maximum will be very low - as many solar scientists expect - the climate of the next 10 years could bring new surprises.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Ummm, not so much. Despite a moderate El Niño lasting a surprisingly few months followed by one of the strongest La Niña's of all time, with a still-somewhat quiescent sun, the only remaining surprise will be if 2010 is not the warmest year in the instrumental record. All very predictable (climate, not weather). Despite what climate ostriches may wish to say. -
JMurphy at 18:58 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Argus wrote : "It seems that the the vast majority of so-called warmists are also male, so what was it you were trying to hint at? Please elaborate!". I don't know what you imagine the word 'warmists' means (it seems to mean different things to different so-called skeptics, depending on which particular urban myth/so-called skeptical argument they are putting forward at any particular time - often in contradiction to their previous argument), but those in opposition to the so-called skeptics (or deniers) are the vast majority of scientists and other rational thinking people - up to half of whom are women. I am pleased to be a part of that mixed community, as opposed to the community of so-called skeptics (or deniers), the vast majority of whom are male, middle-aged (or above) and of a right-wing persuasion. But each to his own...Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] It is perhaps best to avoid such labels altogether and to think of it thusly: There are those who prefer to focus on what is the best explanation for what all of the data shows, using the scientific method. And there is everyone else. Then there's no danger of running afoul of the Comments Policy. -
WheelsOC at 16:08 PM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Albatross @18. Thanks, I hadn't checked back at his site before you posted the link. Another thing to add to the list of egregious mistakes Easterbrook refuses to acknowledge. I posted a politely-worded and relatively inoffensive critique of the entry at WUWT. Let's see if it goes through moderation. -
dana1981 at 15:57 PM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Marcus #26 - yes, a shutdown of the thermohaline is certainly a possibility. However, from my understanding, recent measurements show that it's quite unlikely to happen in the next century. That's why I said European cooling is more likely to come from shifting Arctic weather patterns. Much more likely in fact. -
dhogaza at 15:26 PM on 4 January 2011The 2010 Climate B.S.* of the Year Award
The whole thing took place in maybe 30 seconds. I doubt any of the others had even seriously considered the possibility until that moment. Are you surprised it played out like it did? I am not surprised that AGWers continue to rubbish the possibility even after its been pointed out to them. Real scientists keep an open mind about such things.
Real scientists ask for supporting data, which Lindzen has not provided. Real scientists keep an open mind, but limit it because they don't want their mind to fall out. Meanwhile, apparently modern plants and animals also react to perturbations more quickly, and this is why we're finding overwhelming evidence of northward migration of species (in the NH). Just an artifact of more accurate, more quickly reacting, organisms. And glaciers, too. Magically, just as thermometers became biased toward warm transient temps (but not cool ones, what's Lindzen's argument on this line???), so did glaciers. And arctic sea ice. Etc. -
Karamanski at 15:07 PM on 4 January 2011We're heading into cooling
Keenlyside et al (2008) stated that internal variability in the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures may cause a temporary halt in the rise of global surface temperatures for the 2010-2020 decade. When I read the paper, it did not say that global temperatures would increase by .4 degrees celsius from 2010 through 2020. Where in Keenlyside's study does it say that global temperatures will increase by .4 degrees celsius this decade?Moderator Response:[Daniel Bailey] Try looking in Figure 4:
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Daniel Bailey at 14:51 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Re: muoncounter (151) Artegal = Mann Archimago = McIntyre Braggadocchio = Monckton (apropos) Redcross = Hansen Talus = Tamino The Blatant Beast = Watts (very apropos) The Yooper -
muoncounter at 14:06 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
#150: I don't see the good Dr. as the noblest mind; "That cursed man, low sitting on the ground, Musing full sadly in his sullein mind." But I was wondering who would be his Hawk. -
TimTheToolMan at 13:29 PM on 4 January 2011The 2010 Climate B.S.* of the Year Award
"With that said Baird, and Drs. Cullen, Cicerone and Meehl all disagreed with Lindzen's hypothesis (and reasonable people reading that transcript will probably agree with Meehl et al). " The whole thing took place in maybe 30 seconds. I doubt any of the others had even seriously considered the possibility until that moment. Are you surprised it played out like it did? I am not surprised that AGWers continue to rubbish the possibility even after its been pointed out to them. Real scientists keep an open mind about such things. Re: Deep Ocean warming. To keep it more on topic, thats an issue for further discussion for another day in another thread. -
Daniel Bailey at 13:08 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Re:muoncounter (148) "Spencer also says ... " I'll play: "The noblest mind the best contentment has." Come on up. Superior'll be like bath water soon... Thee Yooper -
Marcus at 12:57 PM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Actually, Dana, I have seen some scientists speculating that-were a sufficient quantity of fresh water (primarily from Glacier melting) to enter the Northern Atlantic, that this would be sufficient to cause the Gulf Stream to slow-or even stop. The resulting cooling would still be Anthropogenic in nature, & would still have to be preceded by a *very* significant amount of warming. Even then, other scientists are not sure if there is sufficient glacial mass-this time around-for such a thing to occur. Just thought you might be interested. -
muoncounter at 12:41 PM on 4 January 2011It's the sun
#768: "shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries ..." Figures 5 and 6 in the paper (pdf here) clearly show the solar UV max coincident with the late '50s 'grand maximum'. That suggests that in the 50 years since, the 4 subsequent solar maxima were flat to lower than this well-known peak. That's the key point in this post: between the 1960s and the present day the same solar measurements have shown that the energy from the sun is now decreasing. See the graph at the top of the page. On another note, when I was in the awl bidness, we referred to Mother Exxon as 'the double cross' - and that was before the Valdez. -
Eric (skeptic) at 12:24 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Florida had numerous record low average temperatures in December, but no extreme cold. For example, Tampa was about 10 degrees below average at 53.2 breaking the old record of 54.5 (Dec 1935). It was interesting that no daily records were broken during the month (in Tampa). It just reached 32 twice (the all time low for December is 18 in 1962). -
muoncounter at 12:20 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
#144: "Spencer also says ... " "the Northern Hemisphere also cooled in December, more consistent with the anecdotal evidence. :) " That's his cute little smiley face. He'd do better with these faces to back up his anecdotes. Yooper, I'm heading north. -
Albatross at 12:18 PM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Daniel @146, Yes, 2012 is going to be an interesting year. The 2011 Arctic melt season could also be interesting given the current low ice volume and extent. Warning signs everywhere that the break pads are wearing out quickly ;) An yet here we are "debating" those in denial about AGW. Sadly, I suspect others will be doing so circa 2050 and beyond. Thanks for the like to David Benson's model-- so far it is working out pretty well, as are Arrhenius's estimates of global SAT. -
Rob Honeycutt at 11:45 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
jorgepeine... AR4 does not, as far as I am aware, suggest that aerosol/cloud issues would "exactly counteract" the influence of CO2 and other GHG's. In fact, they say that the lower bounds for climate sensitivity is 2C with 3C-4.5C being more likely. The latest paper (Dessler 2010) on cloud effects suggest positive feedback and very unlikely that there is any negative feedback. See here for a recent SkS article related to this. -
Daniel Bailey at 10:46 AM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Re: Albatross (144) Good thing Ma Nature's had Her foot on the brake, then (do you smell brake pads wearing out?). 2011 is the year the foot comes off da brake and onto the accelerator in 2012. A good run while we had it. On the plus side, instead of heading south for spring break I can save money & just stay at home... The Yooper -
jorgepeine at 10:22 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
wow this is a super paper ... and I think there is no doubt on the effect of CO2 causing AGW On the other hand IPCC 2007 (AR4) admits some big uncertainties in the aerosol/cloud issue (see the diagramm in chapter 2 of AR4 on radiativ forcing) which could exactly counteract the influence of CO2 and other GHG's ... There seems to be some further research activity underway at CERN with project CLOUD ... Anybody has heard of the outcome of this project?? -
Exxonwhereareyourmoney? at 10:13 AM on 4 January 2011It's the sun
Well, the sun isn´t dead yet: A combination of the increased TSI and UV may explain up to 0.44 degrees of the 0.55 degree HADCRU warming - 80%. "A peer-reviewed paper [Krivova et al.] published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries.....Use of the Stefan-Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W/m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate .44C global temperature increase.....A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50% over the 400 years since the Maunder minimum.....This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels. Solar UV is capable of penetrating the ocean to depths of several meters to cause ocean heating." [N. A. Krivova, L. E. A. Vieira, S. K. Solanki 2010: Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, A12112, 11 PP., 2010 doi:10.1029/2010JA015431 -
Bibliovermis at 09:56 AM on 4 January 2011Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature
oops... first sentence was chopped: When proxy readings are validated by multiple, independent proxy methods, they can be viably compared. -
Bibliovermis at 09:52 AM on 4 January 2011Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature
When proxy readings are validated by multiple, independent proxy methods. When a proxy record starts to conflict with the observational records, which should be considered valid - indirect proxy or direct observation? Should the whole proxy record be discarded when its validity starts to decline due to extraneous factors? -
Fred Staples at 09:34 AM on 4 January 2011Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature
"The “trick” was a way of presenting the data in this one particular graph, namely to truncate the tree ring data at the point when it diverged" A quite incredible comment. The infamous "hockey stick" graph grafted post 1978 instrumental data (the blade) onto proxy data (teh stick). It failed to display the post 1977 proxy data, which shows a blade pointing in teh opposite direction. Hence the song, "hide the decline".Moderator Response: [muoncounter] See the thread Is the hockey stick broken? for a thorough discussion of these graphics. -
dana1981 at 09:23 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Whoops I meant to say cooling *winter* temps in Europe and North America, and only when Arctic air is pushed southwards, not during the entire winter. The overall temperatures in these regions will continue to rise, of course. -
dana1981 at 09:22 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
GeoffThomas #19 - this post and rebuttal is about *global* cooling, as I specifically noted in the sections on Lockwood and Overland. However, either myself or another Skeptical Science author will likely have a post on weather vs. climate in the near future. It's next on my list of priorities unless somebody else gets to it first. Cooling temps in Europe and North America are more likely to come from changes in Arctic air circulation (due to the rapid warming there) than a slowdown of the thermohaline. -
Hyperactive Hydrologist at 09:20 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Geoff, That is the theory, I've not seen any evidence to back it up though, can you point me in the direction of any articles relating to this? There is evidence to suggest a slowing of the meridional overturning circulation of about 30% but no change to the Gulf Stream, as far as I'm aware. -
michael sweet at 09:08 AM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Argus, It is good to see you finally produce some data that we can review. Can you provide links to the data, at least three appear to be newspaper reports (the last two especially), not actual data. (I live in Florida and while it has been below average in December, it has not been record cold). You have found a few sites where it has been cold this winter. I doubt that it will be "An all time record cold spell in Europe" as you claim. A few cold nights in Ireland and Sweden are not a record cold spell in Europe. Germany did not rate a mention in November in the NCDC report and on their dot map of world temperatures Germany is shown as warmer than usual. From the NCDC November report: "The most notable warm anomalies around the world during November 2010 occurred across the northern high latitudes, including Alaska and a large swath of Canada and encompassed most of Europe and Asia. The coolest anomalies were seen over Scandinavia, most of Australia, and the eastern and central Pacific Ocean." It was not "record cold" in most of Europe during November, it was unusually warm. Perhaps Europe will get a mention for its December temperatures. We should wait for the GISS and the NCDC yearly and December summaries to come out. GISS usually comes out around the 10th and NCDC around the 17th of the month. NCDC will mention cold spots around the globe and say how they compare to past records. -
Albatross at 09:07 AM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
FWIW, the RSS data for December 2010 have been released. Global anomaly for TLT (lower troposphere) was +0.251 C. The UAH lower-tropospheric global anomaly was +0.18 C. So much for BP's suggestion that global temperatures were below average in December 2010. Spencer also says that 2010 and 1998 are in a statistical tie for warmest year in the UAH record. For comparison, here are the RSS December anomalies going back to 1998. Note, the RSS product doe not extend north of 80N and south of 72.5 S. Annual values are in parentheses. 1998: +0.312 (+0.55) 1999: +0.116 (+0.09) 2000: +0.008 (+0.08) 2001: +0.292 (+0.24) 2002: +0.236 (+0.33) 2003: +0.487 (+0.36) 2004: +0.166 (+0.25) 2005: +0.219 (+0.37) 2006: +0.334 (+0.28) 2007: +0.096 (+0.31) 2008: +0.172 (+0.09) 2009: +0.243 (+0.26) 2010: +0.251 (+0.51) Remarkably, the global RSS anomaly for December 2010 was higher than that for December 2009 despite the moderate/strong La Nina event developing in the early summer of 2010 and despite the PDO being strongly negative since July 2010.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] You may be interested in David B. Benson's decadal temperature prediction over at RC in October then. -
Rob Honeycutt at 08:59 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
NickD... What's great about PopTech is that, when he gets a mention he usually lives up to his name and pops in to argue his points, thus driving more traffic to the site where he's posting. And he's a vociferous commenter. -
GeoffThomas at 08:55 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
It might be worth your mentioning that there are predictions the gulf stream "the heat conveyor" will slow down and in fact has slowed down, which will mean that Europe and America will experience winter cooling, - most folk who know anything about climate change know of this so I guess you don't feel it necessary to mention it but the article is not only directed at the already informed. Regards, Geoff Thomas. -
Fred Staples at 08:35 AM on 4 January 2011A Positive Outlook For Clouds
“The effect of clouds in a warming world is a difficult one to predict. One challenge is that clouds have both warming and cooling effects. Low-level clouds in particular tend to cause a cooling effect by reflecting sunlight, while high-level clouds tend to cause a warming effect by trapping heat.” Nought out of ten – see me. Heat is not a substance, it is not caloric, it cannot be trapped or stored. Energy can be stored but it is not heat. Whether or not any part of stored energy can do anything – produce work or raise temperature – depends on its surroundings. Heat is the transfer of energy between a higher and a lower temperature. It is, by definition, uni-directional. The way you present thermodynamics in this thread simplifies the first law and ignores the second. It suggests to the non-scientist (journalist, politician or lay reader) that the more energy absorbent material we add to the atmosphere, the higher will be its temperature because the “heat” cannot escape to space. Angstrom demonstrated 100 years ago that this is not the case.Moderator Response: [muoncounter] See Second Law of thermodynamics for a thorough discussion of this question. Hopefully, we don't have to reinvent this wheel. -
Albatross at 08:29 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Wheels @17, The short story is that Easterbrook is bad news-- no doubt about it. Gareth Renowden has thoroughly debunked Easterbrook's latest nonsense in his latest post here. It seems that at least one "skeptic" did not resolve to absolve from distorting in 2011. In fact, they are starting right where they left off. Wheels, these antics are all a desperate attempt to keep people distracted from the reality that the the climate system is accumulating heat, and to trying and sow the seed that the planet is in fact not heading for 2-4.5 C warming, but instead "cooling". Easterbrook and the microWatts crowd are clearly in denial about AGW. The psychology of all this is fascinating, if not utterly depressing. -
WheelsOC at 08:02 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
What an inconsistency. If Oreskes is incorrect in describing how the vast, overwhelming majority of climate scientists is a consensus, how can Gosselin turn around a few months later and describe a list of ~30 individuals as any consensus, "growing" or otherwise? Also, Easterbrook! I hadn't paid him much attention before, but late last night somebody used his arguments about modern temps/the Holocene on me and I had reason to look into him. His claims of "cooling" periods over the 20th century remind me of this so much it's almost not funny. Turns out I'm not the only person who thinks his graphs smell funny: One Two Three He seems unusually weaselly. I hadn't really heard about him until last night, so maybe I'm just being unduly influenced by hasty Googling. Anybody have the story on Dr. Easterbrook? -
Rob Painting at 07:51 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
@6 - Tonydunc - although I wouldn't go so far as call Argo floats cherry-picking, some of these scientists that are still in denial (Roger Pielke Snr springs to mind) have to make the most of the Argo data before revisions are made to account for the pressure sensor faults which have induced a cooling bias. The process is still ongoing as far as I'm aware. Roy Spencer & John Christy did the same thing for about a decade with the MSU satellites when it was obvious there was a spurious cooling signal in their datasets. And of course we still have no way of measuring the deep ocean in it's entirety. With many politicians willing to bury their heads in the sand over global warming, funding for a deep ocean monitoring network may be a bit hard to come by. -
Eric (skeptic) at 07:24 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
caerbannog, I agree. The reason I posted the link was not to promote cranks, but to give a list of people, some subset of which may have cooling predictions and some subset of that may be backed up with journal papers. -
NickD at 07:21 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
PeteM, Rob Honeycutt and others, some have looked rather extensively at PopTech's list. http://greenfyre.wordpress.com/2009/11/18/poptarts-450-climate-change-denier-lies/ -
caerbannog at 07:08 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
A lot of the names above (and more) are in this table: http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall/climate/skeptic_authors_table.html Every "skeptic" list that I've ever seen has been padded with cranks and incompetent hacks. The above list is no exception. A couple of quick examples: John Coleman? He's with KUSI here in San Diego, and he's cartoonishly clueless. I've seen him in action on TV several times. His current knowledge of climate-science wouldn't get him a passing grade in a middle-school science class. Timothy Ball? A complete, over the top, tinfoil-hat crank. Strong words, admittedly, but fully supported by the evidence. See this link for some of that evidence: http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/31141 ExcerptsScientific Reaction To Velikovsky Symptomatic Of Climate Science Debacle By Dr. Tim Ball Thursday, December 16, 2010 ..... Science Is The Ability To Predict In the end Velikovsky succeeded because he passed the ultimate test of science; the ability to predict. More important, they were in contradiction to prevailing views. He made many and apparently none are incorrect to date. The interesting one was the temperature of Venus, which was almost double what the textbooks said. The same textbooks that incorrectly use Venus as an example of runaway CO2 induced Greenhouse Effect. Failure of the University President to approve a conference on Velikovsky was symptomatic of the dogmatic, closed minds that pervade modern science. The few scientists involved with the AGW debacle deliberately exploited and practiced that condition. Their actions indicate they saw this as a battle, but it was against the truth and as Aeschylus said, “In war, truth is the first casualty.”
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villabolo at 07:03 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
I guess I have another footnote (hyperlink) for my "Global Cooling since..." post. :-) -
Alec Cowan at 06:57 AM on 4 January 2011Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
@Argus #142 So, do you think that many instances of record cold in 100 years or unprecedented cold are not evidence of global warming or compatible with global warming? -
PeteM at 06:43 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Rob Honeycut (#4) - I saw the list of 800 scientists. When I checked what they were saying, they were proposing several contradictory ideas ( sun , no warming , thermodynamics). I'm surprised there isn't a simple analysis of this list showing that it represents (for example )20 inconsistent ideas. -
Eric (skeptic) at 06:37 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
A lot of the names above (and more) are in this table: http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall/climate/skeptic_authors_table.html Some of the Russians in particular (e.g. Oleg Sorokhtin) have been written up in press releases, etc as having made cooling predictions. -
Rob Honeycutt at 05:48 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Has anyone attempted to let these scientists know how they are being portrayed on P Gosselin's blog? -
dana1981 at 05:40 AM on 4 January 2011Not So Cool Predictions
Rob #4 - yes it seems pretty much every skeptic 'list of scientists' follows this same pattern. Pad the list with non-experts, and find a few experts whose quotes you can misconstrue to incorrectly add them to your list, to give it the perception of validity. Albatross #5 - personally I don't think you're left with any, but I took that statement out of the post, because it's rather subjective who you consider a real 'climate scientist'. Scafetta for example - personally I think he does rather shoddy work, and technically he's a solar physicist, but you could make an argument for calling him a climate scientist, because he has published in peer-reviewed journals on solar effects on the climate. tonydunc #6 - I think the abstract of the paper tells you all you need to know - "Using only 2003–2008 data from Argo floats..." So basically they're looking at only *upper* ocean heat content data, only over a 5 year period, and only from Argo floats. Cherrypicking at its finest.
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