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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 101751 to 101800:

  1. A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
    Through July 2010, were the warmest 14 months in the temp records, and through May -the warmest 12 months. With less than a month left of 2010, it is still not known if 2010 will set a record, despite the fact that La Nina has already started. 1998 was nearer the top of the 11 year solar cycle and 2010 is closer to the bottom. The 2009-2010 El Nino was nowhere near as strong as 1998-99. And yet - Every year since 2001 has been warmer than any year in the records before 1998. I really don't get why the "warming has stopped" argument keeps getting repeated.
  2. Positive feedback means runaway warming
    Here are a couple other very interesting papers on methane hydrates, that Skeptical Science readers likely haven't seen yet: NETL Methane Hydrates Page
    The results generated through this project have lead to LBNL and LANL researchers publishing four papers in the peer-reviewed literature. (For more information, see the methane hydrate bibliography document.) The first paper, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (Vol. 13, C12023, 2008) assessed the stability of three types of hydrate deposits and the dynamic behavior of these deposits under the influence of moderate ocean temperature increases. The results indicated that deep-ocean hydrates are stable under the influence of moderate increases in ocean temperature; however, shallow deposits can be very unstable and release significant quantities of methane under the influence of as little as 1 degree C of seafloor temperature increase. A second paper, published in Geophysical Research Letters (Vol, 36, L23612, 2009)here presented the first results of the 2-D slope-scale modeling, demonstrating that shallow hydrates in sloping systems may, alone, generate significant methane and lead to the formation of gas plumes at the seafloor. The results were consistent with the observation of methane venting along the upper limit of a receding GHSZ [Gas Hydrate Stability Zone- LP] off Spitsbergen. The third paper, published in Geophysical Research Letters (Vol, 37, L12607, 2010) and the fourth paper, in final revision for the Journal of Geophysical Research, present the first results of forward-coupled methane release, water column chemistry, and transport via ocean currents using a 1o version of the POP code. These establish a new paradigm for understanding the response of the oceans to methane release on a large scale. In particular, the work highlights the importance of resource limitations. Large and concentrated methane plumes may deplete the surrounding water of oxygen and other trace nutrients, reducing the ability of methanotrophs to consume the methane and increasing the chance of release into the atmosphere. This is in sharp contrast to previous assumptions of “99% consumption” of methane for all release scenarios.
    So, the news from these papers appears to me to be bad. The rate of release from hydrate deposits is limited by the endothermic nature of hydrate dissociation, and by fluid flow limitations, according to the second paper mentioned above, though. So - a crucial point - whether these deposits will lead to runaway warming may be very dependent indeed on their total quantity. An order of magnitude difference in estimates of their total quantity, with one of the estimates coming from Archer, who writes papers with ExxonMobil chief scientist Kheshgi, is just unacceptable.
  3. We're heading into an ice age
    Re: NQ/A (159) I have replied to your comment over here in order to not be a further distraction to this thread. The Yooper
  4. Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
    Re: NQ/A (This is a reply to a comment NQ/A made on another thread, linked above) I presume you have been misinformed on this topic, else you would not have said this:
    "Daniel stated that GHG effect of CO2 is "not seriously questioned by any competent scientist anywhere". The only purpose in sending the link to the Petition Project was to show that over 31,000 scientists - surely some of whom must be "competent scientist" somewhere - provided a detailed explanation for their disagreement with AGW. I also took issue with his definition of "competent scientist" and provided links to support my position. It wasn't my intention to open a direct discussion on the petition project or climategate, but to offer those issues as causing legitimate doubt.
     Please read the main article that is the topic of this thread. My definition of "competent scientist" should be clear after reading the post. If not, then this should illuminate the remainder of the darkness remaining. The Yooper
  5. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    Joe Blog at 189 Quote "But what i was getting at, was that the inversion between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, is due to the opacity, which is a result o the pressure & concentration of GHG's. The inversion itself is proof of this, if it was opaque, you would expect an adiabatic T profile up until the energy could escape... in the upper stratosphere." End quote The inversion is simply caused by the fact that the formation of ozone causes atmospheric heating. Thus preventing further convection. Inversions are common in the atmosphere and are the result of pools of warmer air forming above. The mechanism is usually due to air descending and heating adiabatically.
  6. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Great stuff John. Many thanks to the contributors as well. I've made mention in my "usual" spot. Your usage of the "Human Fingerprint" in one of your replies leads me to reflect that it certainly is not the planet that is broken but rather humanity itself. The planet is quite capable of taking care of itself, and will on geologic time scales (say roughly another ~250Myr).
  7. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Great work, John. Will make sure everyone I know knows about it... BTW, have you sent out press releases to the various media organisations? Might be worth it to get the guide a bit more widely disseminated.
    Response: Scott Mandia (the guy who suggested doing the Guide in the first place) has notified major media outlets and his extensive list of media contacts.
  8. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    mars at 11:20 AM I dont doubt what you say. What i wrote was a lil messy... this "preventing a build up/heating of a layer above that above it" Was meant to be, that reducing opacity, means that more energy is moved through radiation, resulting in less and less energy being trapped in the levels as you rise through the troposphere, which would mean radiation becomes more and more dominant, and convection less and less with reducing pressure as you rise through the atmosphere... but in the upper stratosphere, due to O3 absorption, convection once more plays a role. Because as you say its due to the T differential.. a thread at Science o Doom is discussing this very issue at the moment. But what i was getting at, was that the inversion between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, is due to the opacity, which is a result o the pressure & concentration of GHG's. The inversion itself is proof of this, if it was opaque, you would expect an adiabatic T profile up until the energy could escape... in the upper stratosphere.
  9. Renewable Baseload Energy
    @383 michael sweet I think solar hot water heaters are a great idea. I live in a house with solar heating for the pool. I've lived in a house with solar heating for domestic hot water and it worked very well - but the climate is quite good for solar heating. I agree with government subsidies for solar hot water. You have however not put any real figures on how much electricity would be saved world wide. You know - proper analysis such as influence of climate, cost effectiveness under different climatic conditions, plausible rate of deployment etc etc. I would be very interested in looking at a decently constructed scenario. You are choosing to substitute a narrative for analysis. It's really not much use. I would agree that "A combination of methods *can* outperform a single method". However the outcome is critically dependent on the weighting given in terms of investment and resources to the various methods. There is a very good reason Hansen returns again and again to the need to get rid of coal in baseload generation ASAP. This is, if you like, on the critical path of the project for a low emissions future. Desirable as it is, solar hot water heating is not.
  10. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    Joe Blog 187 Convection occurs occurs when the air above is cooler than the air below. In the stratosphere the temperature increases with height. Therefore convection can not occur there. The cooling due to increased levels of CO2 nevertheless continues into the next layer (Mesosphere) becoming even more pronounced. I Don't buy Bobs 2nd explanation as being relevant. I am convinced that the effect is too small and is overwhelmed by the warming that occurs at the top of the troposphere due heat being dumped there from the condensation of water vapor. See the troposphere hot spot on this site for more info on how this works.
  11. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Geo77 @18: why doesn't CO2 have an equal effect in blocking the heat coming into the earth as it does on blocking the heat leaving? Your guess is correct: the sun, being a black body at ~5000 K, radiates mostly in the "visible" region, with a peak near 500 nm. The earth, also a black body, but at ~290 K, radiates in the infra-red, with a peak near 10,000 nm (10 um). Nice graphics here and here. Greenhouse gases (CO2, H2O, CH4, etc) are transparent in the visible region, so absorb very little radiation from the sun. However, they do absorb strongly in several regions of the infra-red. Another nice graph there.
  12. We're heading into an ice age
    NQuestofApollo wrote : "Your links to the hockey stick issue don't change the fact that two different sets of data were concatenated. AGW promoters find this acceptable, the rest of us do not. I'd like to discuss the urban heat effect, but fear we would just talk past each other." The facts are stated in the links I gave previously, so you should comment on one of those threads if you want to outline any objections that aren't answered there. You can discuss Urban Heat here, here or here. NQuestofApollo wrote : "The only purpose in sending the link to the Petition Project was to show that over 31,000 scientists - surely some of whom must be "competent scientist" somewhere - provided a detailed explanation for their disagreement with AGW." No, that "detailed explanation" was provided by Robinson, Robinson and Soon, with such gems as a first graph which purports to show the MWP much, much warmer than now (using the Sargasso Sea as the world, and projecting world temperature from that from 1975 to 2006 - but you find that acceptable, supposedly ?); and mentioning the "colonization of Greenland" - again, acceptable 'facts' for you ? NQuestofApollo wrote : "I also took issue with his definition of "competent scientist" and provided links to support my position." Couldn't find the links you are referring to, which "support your position". Could you point them out, please ? NQuestofApollo wrote : "most of your links regarding the IPCC back up what I said - the IPCC either lied or "misread" data. Furthermore, that happened because their reports were NOT peer viewed. Further promoting my point that they are not an entirely reliable source." Again, you will have to point out the bits that made you decide to believe that the "IPCC either lied or 'misread' data". As for the IPCC itself, I suggest you have a look at the WIKIPEDIA description : The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. A main activity of the IPCC is publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an international treaty that acknowledges the possibility of harmful climate change. Implementation of the UNFCCC led eventually to the Kyoto Protocol. The IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific literature. If you need to link to Monckton's website to get your information, I would suggest you are limiting your understanding a great deal.
  13. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Geo77 -18 I think what you are saying makes sense. To paraphrase, the earth warms up during the day and cools off at night. So it seems logical that there would be more outgoing radiation after it has heated up and outgoing radiation is what is blocked. Regarding your comment about heat coming into the earth - Infrared does not come in from the sun; at least nothing appreciable if anything at all. Ultraviolet comes in, impacts and warms the ground and the ground radiates the Infrared. sailrick - 20 You got me thinking. It seems to me that because of the warmth of the day, you will have more moisture in the air than you would at night. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. CO2 would be more appreciable with less water vapor. During the day, for the sake of argument only because I have no idea what the numbers are, CO2 may represent 20% of the greenhouse gases while at night it may represent 80% Is this what you are saying? Also, I suppose whatever argument we come up with for the night/day issue is going to apply to the winter/summer issue. Bob Guercio
    Response: "Ultraviolet comes in, impacts and warms the ground and the ground radiates the Infrared."

    To be precise, it's primarily visible light that warms the Earth's surface. UV light is mostly absorbed by the ozone layer.
  14. The human fingerprint in the seasons
    I think this should be corrected: "What we observe instead is the poles warming around 3 times faster than the equator." That's only valid for the North Pole, but not for the South Pole. What we expect from greenhouse warming is Arctic amplification, rather than polar.
  15. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Moderator @19 Dang yes you're right. I think there's something about the sequence "Most Likely", "Likely", "Very Likely" that looks wrong, but yes when you think about it more ... Sorry for the false alarm
  16. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Bob Guercio @13 Though not highly technical, this might help. I pay attention to night time dew, because it can effect my work. What I have observed is that there is less dew on overcast or cloudy nights. On clear nights, heat radiates out into space faster, causing more dew. Similarly, greenhouse gases slow the radiative cooling at night, hence warmer night time temps. If the sun was the cause of warming, you would expect to see more daytime warming, when the sun is out. But instead, night temps are rising faster than day temps. Bacisally the same idea for summer / winter. Now I'm wondering if the overcast nights being warmer has more to do with mixing between layers of the atmosphere, in which case, the analogy is not as good. Anyone?
  17. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Great job John but ... there's a mistake in the figure on page 8 where the captions at the top "Likely" and "Very Likely" are the wrong way round :-( I'd vote for "Its frigging cold" being included in the next edition, if only because where I am, it is - at the moment. And whilst I'm on the subject - any plans for a blog post on this "WACCo"(Warm Arctic, Cold Continent) weather modeling ?
    Response: No, the captions for Likely and Very Likely are correct (I checked now just to be sure). The shorter thicker bar (off the top of my head) means there is a greater than 66% chance that climate sensitivity falls within that bar. The longer, thinner bar means there is a greater than 90% chance climate sensitivity falls within that range. When you think about it, it makes sense that there is a greater chance (eg - very likely) that climate sensitivity falls within the wider range of values.
  18. 1934 - hottest year on record
    "Globally, the ten hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998, with 2007 as the hottest." Shouldn't that say 2005, not 2007?
  19. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Bob Guercio @13- This is a laypersons understanding of the night/winter issue, so please excuse and correct any misstatements or misconceptions, but I'll give a try at explaining my understanding as maybe we are on a similar level scientifically. Think about daytime being when the earth absorbs heat from the sun and nighttime as when heat is radiated back out through the atmosphere. That's why it's almost always coldest in the early morning just before dawn after an entire night of losing heat. The warming effect of CO2 is related to how it interferes with the heat radiating back out through the atmosphere. Since there is more radiating of heat during the night it is the nighttime temperatures that will be most affected by the increasing CO2. Although I'm sure there is some radiation of heat occurring during the daytime, I imagine it must be less because the gradient in the temps between the earth and the atmosphere is less than at night. Also the temperature moderation during the daytime from radiating heat would be relatively small compared to the temp moderation driven by heat absorption. With regards to winter temps I think the concept would be the same since you have less insolation, longer nights etc during the winter so the effect of the CO2 would show up more. One question that occurs to me from writing this up is why doesn't CO2 have an equal effect in blocking the heat coming into the earth as it does on blocking the heat leaving? My guess is it has to do with the radiation coming in (sunlight) being of different wavelengths compared to the heat radiation going out.
  20. The human fingerprint in the seasons
    Cris G wrote the following... "take to mean that you think there is a limit to how hot CO2 can get." based on my comment 79, which contained... "Given that water vapor has double the heat capacity of CO2, and abounds in excess of 100 times the anthropogenic contribution in CO2, this retained "energy" you are talking about represents at most 0.5% of the total ambient. I suppose that is energy, but it doesnt seem like much. " From this I can only "take to mean" you did not read what I wrote.
  21. The human fingerprint in the seasons
    #141: "Yet the Arctic had a higher amplification than current, this would be very strong evidence" That's not really strong evidence. Look here for a more thorough discussion of arctic amplification than in the Chylek paper you reference. We also said here that the early 20th century warming had a different cause than the current warming; why would expect the same responses?
  22. keithpickering at 06:53 AM on 9 December 2010
    The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    For the next edition, I would also add Human Fingerprint #8: Decreasing atmospheric O2, caused by the burning of fossil carbon. If the increase in CO2 had come from natural sources, O2 would not be decreasing by similar amounts. Langenfelds et. al. (1999), GRL 26:13, 1897-1900.
    Response: That is mentioned in passing on Page 1 on the 'Human Fingerprints on Climate Change' graphic but there were only so many green box Human Fingerprints I could fit into the rest of the Guide. If we ever do an "extended edition", I'll get the opportunity to flesh out more fingerprints.
  23. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    For some reason, I'm having trouble really understanding why nights warm faster
    Thinking about it as why nights cool more slowly helps, maybe, since the cooling all takes place through the radiation of LWIR?
  24. How Jo Nova doesn't get the tropospheric hot spot
    Schnorkel dismissing a complex issue with innuendo brings us nowhere. You can find a good historical perspective here.
  25. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Oops. Not "online newspaper readers" but "online newspaper commentators".
  26. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Thanks. I've been working on the issue for several years but probably reaching the wrong audience, online newspaper readers, most of whom are repetitive ideologically-driven trolls. Fortunately, your document is clear enough that perhaps even the politicians might understand and they are my current target. I won't try to convince the MP for my riding in Canada, John Baird who is probably the worst possible choice for the job in our parliament. At the COP15 in Bali when he had the substantive role rather than the current "temporary" one, he left a high-level meeting and was seen minutes later drinking a cocktail at a party. There is no way that he's getting my vote. But it appears very likely that votes alone won't help us to deal with the issue. I guess that it's time to "get in their faces".
  27. A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
    Arkadiusz Semczyszak @108, It would be helpful if, instead of simply posting quotes from papers, you provided some context or explanation for them. What point are you trying to make?
  28. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Folks, I have a technical question related to the guide. I don't mean to say that the guide is incomplete; it's just that I would like more information for myself. The guide, as is, is perfect. For some reason, I'm having trouble really understanding why nights warm faster than days and winters warm faster than summers. For some reason, understanding this is eluding me. Thanks, Bob
    Response: I am intentionally brief about those fingerprints in the Guide, acutely aware that you can't fit everything into a single guide without it bloating to unwieldy proportions. Fortunately, I have a blog to flesh out the details and in anticipation of these kinds of issues, I'd even already gone into more detail about the daily and annual cycle (my original plan was to have blog posts about all the human fingerprints before the Guide came out but well, I'm just not that well organised):

    The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
    During the day, the sun warms the Earth's surface. At nighttime, the surface cools by radiating its heat out to space. Greenhouse gases slow down this cooling process. This is why deserts cool so much at night. Water vapour is a strong greenhouse gas and the dry desert air traps much less heat than more humid areas. A more extreme example is the moon which has no atmosphere. At nighttime, there are no greenhouse gases to trap the outgoing heat. Consequently, the difference between day and night is more extreme with daytime temperatures getting up to around 118°C and nighttime temperatures falling below -168°C. In other words, the stronger the greenhouse effect, the smaller the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures.

    The human fingerprint in the seasons
    During summer, a region receives more sunlight and warms. During winter, the region receives less sunlight and cools by radiating heat to space. Greenhouse gases stop some of this heat from escaping to space so an increased greenhouse effect slows down the winter cooling. Consequently, if greenhouse gases are causing global warming, we expect to see winters warming faster than summer.
  29. A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
    Camburn @64 1. Statistically, and this is important unless you want to throw statistical analysis out with the wash, we have not warmed for the past 15 years. "Because the temperature has random ups and downs on top of the long term warming trend, you need about 16 years to conclude (with 95% confidence) that a trend in those 16 years is not a result of chance. So if the only temperature data we had was 1995-2009 (15 years!) we couldn't conclude with 95% confidence that there was a trend. But we also couldn't conclude...that there is no trend -- there simply isn't enough data for a firm conclusion. But we have more data than just 1995-2009, so we can conclude (with greater than 95% confidence) that there is a warming trend. "In fact, since we have data for 2010 now, it is even now true that we have statistically signficant warming since 1995." I'd like to join archiesteel in asking you to acknowledge your error.
  30. The human fingerprint in the seasons
    Norman @148, Thanks for clarifying. I must still, however, agree the assessments made by CBDunkerson and others. I might take issue with the John Cook using the dichotomy of the tropics and poles-- maybe he meant to discriminate between the tropics and high latitudes. The northern mid-latitudes have also been warming more in the winter than in the summer.
  31. How Jo Nova doesn't get the tropospheric hot spot
    #29: "Gee, I think I understand ..." Might be easier to understand if you actually read the post before commenting. the hot spot is not caused by the greenhouse effect. In fact, we expect to see an amplified warming trend in the troposphere no matter what's causing the warming. ... Detecting the tropospheric hot spot is not a test of the greenhouse effect but of the moist adiabatic lapse rate. Most folks would agree that its better to do some research before forming opinions. SkS has a search feature; try it, you might like it.
  32. A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
    muoncounter #105 - by "current pace" I was referring to an accelerating, not linear increase. For example see the upper IPCC emissions scenarios, which are what we're currently on pace with.
  33. Steven Sullivan at 04:16 AM on 9 December 2010
    Phil Jones says no global warming since 1995
    John, Tamino's 'How Long' post seems to have vaporized. But he has another, more recent, one that treats the Phil Jones quote http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/11/11/hey-david-whitehouse-why-is-the-sky-green/
  34. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    Tom Curtis at 02:05 "Convection doesn't work in the stratosphere because the temperature increases with altitude in the Stratosphere, not because of the low density." As i understand it, convection stops working in the upper troposphere, because radiative transfer moves energy to quickly, preventing a build up/heating of a layer above that above it, the inversion between the troposphere and the stratosphere would prevent convection. But it is the result of the opacity reaching a level where radiation is the dominant means of energy transport... and the opacity is the result of the decreasing pressure. obviously higher up in the stratosphere convection once again plays a role, from the O3 absorption. Interesting points. Particularly about number two.
  35. How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
    Spiff... I think Alley's brilliance is as a teacher. You have to know he's used exactly that same demonstration ("my bald spot") with 100's if not 1000's of the students he works with. Even the wording he uses is wonderful. "Your brightness is the sun..." Makes listeners feel good about themselves. You have to remember Rohrabacher is not the audience when Alley is speaking to him. He is merely the antagonist in the forum. What is important is that people hear Alley teach the antagonist the error in his thinking. Therefore, it's not Alley's job to convert Rohrabacher, it's his job to teach the broader audience by politely responding to Rohrabacher's misinterpretations. I try to use exactly this thinking when I engage climate change deniers on various forums. I try to be polite. (I really do try!) I try not to make it a personal goal to convert the person I'm talking to. But I try, to the best of my abilities, use that denier as a way to teach the broader reading audience what I've learned about the science of climate change. Science that I have primarily learned here at SkS.
  36. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    VTG @185, from trial and error, I have figured out that it only adjusts the ground temperature. It uses several standard temperature profiles, which you choose by selecting "tropical" etc. It doesn't calculate the temperature at all. Rather, it determines the radiation out given a specific temperature profile and atmospheric composition. If you read the paperwork, you will see that the version available at David Archer's site is one from the early 1990's. I don't know the capabilities of more recent models. If you want to calculate equilibrium temperatures, you should probably use the NCAR model at the same site. I have not played with it very much, so I cannot advise you except for two caveats: it also is an obsolete model, and it does not handle cloud albedo well, giving non-physical results for significant change in cloud cover. Regarding convection, as convection operates in the mesosphere, presumably it would also operate in the stratosphere without the inversion. You may find these lecture notes a usefull summary of basic facts about the upper levels of the atmosphere.
  37. Renewable Baseload Energy
    Quokka, this source from Nebraska (the first hit on google) says 14% of electricity in houses is used for hot water. Solar hot water heaters are currently installed in many places. They are usable in all locations in Australia and most of the USA. That would greatly exceed the 3% you want in post 381. China is reported to be installing a lot of solar hot water. Where I live (Florida)solar pool heaters are the most cost effective method, and save even more energy. Your absolute arguments fall flat. A combination of methods will always outperform a single method.
  38. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    I like the fact that it has lots of graphics.
  39. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    Tom @183 On Modtran, that's what I assumed - I tried adjusting the ground temperature in exactly the way you suggest, but it doesn't affect the atmospheric profile. If not by thermal equilibrium, how does it calculate the temperature gradient through the atmosphere and why doesn't CO2 concentration change the temperature profile at all? On radiative vs convective heat transfer - I'd thought about the inversion limiting convection as well but I'd also assumed that the reduction in density would be sufficient to significantly reduce heat transfer by turbulent mixing. Thank you for your time btw, I've learned a lot. Now, those pics, the red line is effectively the total stratospheric emission I think: 20km altitude, looking up, 100ppm CO2, total emission 6.6 W/m2 And again with 1000ppm, total emission 11.0 W/m2 You can clearly see the increase in stratospheric emissions as CO2 rises. Ergo in equilibrium you'd expect T to decrease.
  40. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    This is a great summary and presentation of the data. You have done a terrific job of putting it all together. I like the clean look and easy to read summaries.
  41. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    VeryTallGuy @181, that is the first explanation in a nutshell, except ... My quibble is with (2). Convection doesn't work in the stratosphere because the temperature increases with altitude in the Stratosphere, not because of the low density. Also, Bob's second explanation is also a significant, if possibly transient effect.
  42. How Jo Nova doesn't get the tropospheric hot spot
    Gee, I think I understand how Jo Nova got it so wrong. Let's see... satellites have trouble reflecting what the models predict. So the sat data must be wrong. Weather ballons are wrong too. But the wind, steady reliable, proves the models supporting AGW are right. Furthermore, when the sat and ballons don't support the models, they also don't detract from AGW theory. But when ANY data is ...what was the term? "adjusted for" well, then it does support the models and hence support the theory of AGW. Yep, I've got it. How could Jo Nova get it so wrong?
  43. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    VeryTallGuy @179, Modtran is a radiative transfer model only. That means it calculates the emission and transmission for various atmospheric conditions, but does not adjust those conditions to establish equilibrium. In the version at David Archer's site, you can make a partial equilibrium adjustment for outgoing radiation by adjusting the ground temperature offset until the Iout matches the original value. However, it only adjusts ground temperature so it is not entirely accurate, and cannot (by that means) adjust for equilibrium in the stratosphere.
  44. Spaceman Spiff at 01:49 AM on 9 December 2010
    How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
    Many kudos go to Alley for trying, but I find the piece to be depressing. Rohrabacher gets to spout off tired disinformation and falsehoods as facts that Alley needs to answer for (while constantly admitting he himself knows nothing about which he speaks!). Pat Michaels of the Cato institute gets to serve as an "equal" counterweight to Alley, as if....OMG.
  45. Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 01:41 AM on 9 December 2010
    A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
    Under are comments authors to this paper: Boyce et al., 2010.: “But their numbers have dwindled since the dawn of the 20th century, with unknown consequences for ocean ecosystems and the planet's carbon cycle., … the global population of phytoplankton has fallen about 40 percent since 1950., That translates to an annual drop of about 1 percent of the average plankton population between 1899 and 2008., It's very disturbing to think about the potential implications of a century-long decline of the base of the food chain ..., They include disruption to the marine food web and effects on the world's carbon cycle., Phytoplankton productivity is the base of the food web, and all life in the sea depends on it., In addition to consuming CO2, phytoplankton can influence how much heat is absorbed by the world's oceans, and some species emit sulfate molecules that promote cloud formation.
  46. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    @ Albatross: I have an iphone 3Gs and it comes through fine as PDF via the Safari viewer, not sure about 3G, but most people should be able to see it without problem..
  47. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    Bob @180 Yes, I think that's more accurate. Tom @ 180 has put forward what seems to me like a pretty solid case that you need an external heat source (ie UV absorption) to effect cooling with higher CO2.
  48. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    Tom Curtis Ah, yes, I realise now that the total power output of the CO2 is limited by it's temperature ie it can't emit more than the equivalent blackbody in its emission bands. So your argument goes that unless there is another factor heating the stratosphere, to raise the CO2 temperature, then CO2 will actually absorb more CO2 from the troposphere than it will emit. In which case, how about this for a really simple explanation: 1) The stratosphere is heated by UV absorption in the ozone layer. 2) Due to low density, radiative heat transfer rather than convective heat transfer dominates. 3) At a given temperature, emissivity of the stratosphere increases as CO2 concentration increases, and at given CO2 conc, total IR emission from the stratosphere increases with temperature. 4) Therefore the temperature must fall to compensate if CO2 rises to keep the overall heat balance satisfied. The issue of the spectrum of IR coming up from the troposphere is then pretty much irrelevant I think?
  49. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    This guide is simply superlative. Excellent work John & contributors!
  50. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
    Very Tall Guy 179 Most of your comments are about my writing and I'm going to digest them and change my writeup if necessary. Regarding this comment: "Energy also causes CO2 molecules to vibrate but although this vibration is related to the energy content of CO2, it is not related to the temperature of the gaseous mixture." I think it would have been more accurate to say ""Energy also causes CO2 molecules to vibrate but although this vibration is related to the energy content of CO2, the temperature is not a function of this vibrational energy. The temperature is only a function of the translational K.E." Does this take care of your issue? Bob

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