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Comments 107801 to 107850:

  1. What constitutes 'safe' global warming?
    I did notice the second quote, I just thought the idea was poorly expressed. When the facts change, I don't "change my mind" - I just go where the evidence leads. I get sick, the doc says here's what we have to do, I do it. I get better, I get up and get on with life. If the "facts" change in relation to climate science, I'll evaluate them. 25-30 years of declining temperature, coral reefs rebuilding, Arctic ice several metres thick, I won't just evaluate, I'll relax and enjoy.
  2. We're heading into an ice age
    @Tom: I'm not sure you understand what "anecdotal" means. In any case, there is no indication we are about to enter a very cold period. There were more heat records broken than cold records last year. The warming trend is strong, and shows no sign of reversing. Glacial periods are most likely the results of Milankovitch cycles, not of delicate "tipping points" that would be reached by increasing heat. You don't seem to be making much sense, I'm afraid.
  3. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    The Blue Moderator wrote: As was mentioned earlier, the "Latest Posts" list at left is a convenient way of discovering where the crowd has gone. The "Latest Posts" list will tell you what the latest posts are, but the "Recent Comments" link at the top will tell you where the crowd has gone.
  4. We're heading into an ice age
    I think it was Professor Hansen stating that mantra that weather doesn't indicate climate about the record cold in the US NE and Europe not too long ago while actually there was record cold on all six continents at the time. Anecdotal evidence only pertains so far, you know. You can be killed by an anecdotal occurrence. If it is anecdotal that the whole planet is being pushed to collapse into the more stable set of conditions as evident by its holding way over 90% of the planet's existence at least in the last million or two years, well, heck, quick snap to major ice age conditions will be but an anecdotal odd and absolutely not average happening. Get it right. What I'm suggesting is that the record global warming is leading to a propensity to snap into extreme widespread cold. I'm not denying that there was record heat but I think the idea of a tipping point should be considered. What does the planet tip to? Just look at the record. Interglacials come and go. They are the transient phenomenon. The planet apparently gets tipped into its most stable set of conditions, ice age conditions, and they come on anecdotally and rapidly, beating the average trends quickly. I know it is a difficult concept. The ways to avoid global warming make sense to avoid quick snap to extreme global cooling except for the idea of using Hydrogen gas as a fuel. That would most likely lead to more of those noctilucents as suggested on the Wikipedia on the phenomenon. Hey, earth's climate system is not a linear process. It is dynamic with repeated seriously differing cycles. The change to something serious, what ever we might be tipping to, will be anecdotal. It will not be an average outcome. It will be new and looks like it is going to catch most quite off guard. Good luck all!
  5. An underwater hockey stick
    CBDunkerson at 10:36 yet you are drawing a conclusion, that water at ~400 m warmed more than surface waters, which assumes they are. Well unless there has been a reduction in entropy, the warming has not come from the atmosphere in the region, we have their temperature anomalies. And you are looking at less than a degree, whilst the water temperature has increased more than a degree... at 400m. It has nothing to do with the atmosphere in the region, it is showing the relative strengths of warm and cold currents, which correlate well to hemispherical temperature anomalies.
  6. We're heading into an ice age
    Tom, picking local cold spell doesnt mean anything. Look at the global average temperatures. As to the storm that hit here - well it was bad but it was just a storm, unfortunately at bad timing after a very mild winter and otherwise early spring. Effect on NZ annual average temps - not much. Global warming does not preclude cold spells. There is more energy in the weather systems, more humidity, and if temperatures go below zero, you will get heavier snow.
  7. What constitutes 'safe' global warming?
    adelady, believe it or not, I also care - otherwise I wouldn't be hanging around this site. I'm not a contrarian who just wants to argue for the sake of it. You didn't notice my second quote from Keynes which is much more important than the first: 'When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?' Doug, you ask of RSVP, 'Does being a refugee sound good?' I come from a family of refugees created not by climate but by the poisonous geopolitics of the 1930s. I've never been a refugee myself but the notion is embedded in my DNA. Currently, our refugee problems worldwide are not the result of climate change but the outcome of nasty governments and equally nasty revolutionary movements. I'd hate to see climate changed added to their burdens but so far that hasn't been happening. That of course doesn't mean it will never happen but as the Latin tag goes, 'Homo homini lupus' - literally 'man is wolf to man.'
  8. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    JohnD - also please explain how to change winds independently of temperature.
  9. We're heading into an ice age
    @Tom: And yet 2010 is on par to be the second hottest year in the Southern Hemisphere. As for a cold winter in the NH last year, you certainly didn't come to Canada. It was very mild overall. The problem is that you seem to believe anecdotal evidence trumps measured averages. It doesn't, and therefore your theory that we are in a cooling trend does not stand scrutiny.
  10. An underwater hockey stick
    Joe Blog #64: "You are confusing energy with temperature..." No... I'm not. As to the rest, the most glaring flaw in your analysis is that you are comparing water temps at ~400 m depth in part of the North Atlantic to air temperatures for the entire northern hemisphere. The samples are not equivalent... yet you are drawing a conclusion, that water at ~400 m warmed more than surface waters, which assumes they are.
  11. We're heading into an ice age
    Here's a report of the cold in New Zealand killing "tens of thousands of lambs" though no record is mentioned as being broken it states its the worse since 1972: Tens of thousands of New Zealand lambs killed by cold. 9/22
    Strong winds, heavy snow and record cold across Tasmania. 9/17
    South pole has record cold. 7/31
    Much of New Zealand experiencing record cold. 6/2
    Queensland, Australia towns get record cold. 5/22
    Cold snap hits Argentina, Paragua, Uruguay & Bolivia. 7/18
    Record low temperature in Brazil. 7/15
    At least this one is a record for 82 year old Juana Benitez: Cold snap hits several South America countries. 7/10
    Well, how about coldest SE Australia in some 60 years?: Unusual widespread cold in Australia. 6/30
    Here's the story about S. Africa penguins though it doesn't mention any records being broken. Maybe it is a record that over half of the penguin chicks died from the cold this time. One island hardly qualifies as wide spread though: Cold rain kills %50+ endangered S. Africa penguin chicks. 6/15
    There was some widespread crop damage from cold in S. Africa but it doesn't mention any records being broken: Severe cold & frost damages S. Africa crops. 7/15
    Oh, don't get me going on the widespread cold in the northern hemisphere over the last couple of years. Notices of those far out weigh those for the southern hemisphere. Two years ago, my mom died due to complications in what I understand was Washington state's first ever state of emergency due to record cold and snow. I truly expect the cold and snow to be worse this year across the northern hemisphere and there are some long range predictions suggesting that too.
  12. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    Johnd- but ability to evaporate decrease as water content rises. That is my point. Spencer's paper published now so the discussion will continue in the proper way - by scientists checking, validating and publishing. If it has really has merit, then it will be basis of more work; if not, it will be refuted and science will move on. No guesses where my money goes - if sensitivity was that low, we wouldn't have ice ages.
  13. An underwater hockey stick
    archiesteel at 10:16 AM Ive stated basically the same thing myself earlier... however(it would be a boring world if we all agreed), if you hold this graph as validation of the other reconstructions, you can hardly ignore the fact that the timing and magnitude of the anomalies are the wrong way around. It does correlate very well with the last 1000 years. Coincidences can happen, but...
  14. An underwater hockey stick
    Im not arguing that co2 is NOT a greenhouse gas... i mean, i dont doubt the radiative properties of it one bit, or have any issue with the greenhouse effect... but the climate is actually a little bit more involved than just one variable.
  15. CO2 was higher in the past
    SRJ - for sun levels in deep time, you dont have measured proxy but rather the calculation based on sun being a main sequence star. See for instance: faint young sun paradox
  16. An underwater hockey stick
    @Joe Blog (68): Unless I'm mistaken, the top graph is for temperatures in the deep waters of the St. Lawrence Gulf. It does not represent all of the NH, so drawing conclusions based on eyeballing graphs that do not represent the same geographical area isn't going to tell you much about how well they correlate.
  17. An underwater hockey stick
    scaddenp "While circumpolar current certainly makes pole cold, I cant see why that cools ocean - doesnt affect the solar energy uptake." Obviously, raised albedo on Antarctica would effect the earths albedo. But with reduced oceanic energy transport, this energy is going to transported via the atmosphere, a lot less efficiently, with vastly greater losses, driven by the differential in temperatures across latitudes. Cold water, holds more oxcygen, which enables it to support greater bio mass, Thus the greater burial, through lime stone etc(dead fish) Im not arguing that co2 is a GHG, or anything of the nature, i am just saying how i interpret these graphs relationship to each other, in relation to the warming event at the start to mid last century.
  18. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    Johnd @104, "The Spencer paper IIRC was discussed only prior to publication, with everyone quiet about since, unless I've missed any such discussion." They are probably busy validating his findings or trying to replicate them. I strongly suspect a comment (or perhaps even a refutation of his paper) is in the works. But be patient, good science takes time.
  19. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    Johnd @102, I'm rushed here, but I think it suffices to say that the following, "once it has absorbed the energy via the evaporation process it begins rising to be replaced by cooler drier air that continues the evaporation process", is not correct. You do not say where this "cooler/drier air originates from. I'm not sure maybe you are taking about the entrainment of drier air from the free atmosphere into the planetary boundary layer as the boundary layer grows during the day. Look up "moisture flux divergence" which consists of two terms the "horizontal moisture divergence" and the "moisture advection" term". Moisture is most certainly advected by the horizontal wind field. Also, it is the "pooling" or convergence of moisture which oftentimes leads to the formation of thunderstorms (assuming an unstable profile and presence of a trigger mechanism which can lift the near-surface air "parcels" to the level of free convection). Anyhow, many factors govern transpiration and evaporation. And in order for evapotranspiration to continue does not require the moisture added to the air to be replaced by "cooler and drier air". See for example the Penman-Monteith (P-M) equation for governing variables. There are more sophisticated models, but the P-M is a good start. The contribution of ET to near-surface water vapor mixing ratio to the boundary layer is well documented and under ideal conditions can be significant.
  20. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    scaddenp at 09:44 AM,wrong, in my scenario the air would continually be absorbing moisture whilst it was present, even at night as we often see with saturated ground being dried on a windy night. The Spencer paper IIRC was discussed only prior to publication, with everyone quiet about since, unless I've missed any such discussion.
  21. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    TIS #41 is correct about the labeling. The two samples are correctly described in the comments under the picture (i.e. Blue = Taylor, Green = Law), but incorrectly in the legend on the chart itself (i.e. Blue = Law, Green = Taylor).
  22. An underwater hockey stick
    Joe, I dont doubt that continental placement is important but I dont think you could model a warm jurassic in any configuration without high CO2. As to why CO2 has dropped right through Tertiary - interesting question, but I would look at the rise of carbonate-rock forming species (esp forams) over that period for my money. While circumpolar current certainly makes pole cold, I cant see why that cools ocean - doesnt affect the solar energy uptake.
  23. CO2 was higher in the past
    Quoting from the beginning of this post: "When CO2 levels were higher in the past, solar levels were also lower" Can anyone point to a source for the this? And a nice graph showing solar levels in the past?
  24. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    JohnD, and your scenario, all ground air would be dry despite blowing over 100 kms of ocean which is not the case. I am trying to explain why on a basin-wide basis, the observed variation in evaporation with wind speed is lower than you seem to believe. Spencer use of "time-varying internal forcings" is somewhat novel and really is an exploration of the internal feedback mechanisms. This paper has been discussed before and I frankly doubt you can conclude anything concrete about feedbacks over longer term from the short term approach.
  25. An underwater hockey stick
    I should add, by bottom water we are only talking 400m down... not 4km, its not really bottom water, that would be pretty homogeneous, the author of the paper believe that the warm current feeding into the gulf increased by close to 100%. So it was making up close to 50% of the bottom water flow into the gulf.
  26. What constitutes 'safe' global warming?
    MattJ. I'm afraid I tend to agree with you. The big issue is acting in a way to ensure that any rise over 2C is as brief as possible. If we get it 'right' the temperature spike might look a bit like that 1998 spike. It won't be a single year of course, but minimising the number of decades is worth a shot. It'd be nice to think that the climb up to and down from whatever maximum temperature is finally reached could be less than the lifetime of people within one generation. And yes Barry, I'm from the festival city.
  27. An underwater hockey stick
    scaddenp at 09:03 Im open to suggestion as to the why of the increase of warm bottom water(conventional wisdom, big freezes up north dropping more water than normal pulling more up, and feeding off the change, etc)... but if you rescale those graphs, it is very clear that the bottom water temps are leading atmospheric anomalies at the beginning of last century...its even visible without rescaling. Continental placement, dictates ocean currents, Ocean currents affect heat transport, which affect ocean temp... which affect its ability for carbon burial... the reason our co2 levels fell to where they are is when the continents came to be where they are 45mybp, with Antarctica over the pole, it prevented heat transport to the pole, and the Antarctic circumpolar current came into being, which caused a slow but steady decrease in ocean temp, and absorption/burial o co2, over the next 30 million years it fell, till 15mybp it was at the levels it is at now, which started the northern hemisphere glaciations, and this process continued till 2.5mybp, it fell to the levels that enabled full blown glacial cycles to start... the continents set the stage.
  28. An underwater hockey stick
    JMurphy at 08:03 AM, just because an message is directed to a single person doesn't preclude it from being copied to others as part of a group discussion. Why don't you ask him if that aspect is the most important to you rather then the subject? It was sent early 2007 by the way, just so you can put it into the timeline relating to the UNSW revelation.
  29. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    scaddenp at 11:02 AM, with regards to wind, your scenario assumes that the water vapour continues to be carried along by the wind at the surface. Consider instead the behavior of the wind in 3 dimensions where once it has absorbed the energy via the evaporation process it begins rising to be replaced by cooler drier air that continues the evaporation process. In your scenario, there would not be any such things as storms. With regards to clouds as a forcing, Roy Spencer in his latest paper proposes exactly that. He asserts that clouds act as a radiative forcing generated internal to the climate system, the problem having been the difficulty in identifying and separating such internally generated forcing from what he considers as a mixture of forcings and feedback. You ask the question, "How can clouds be a forcing?" I think to understand where Spencer is coming from, one has to be able to put aside any preconceived ideas that could cause one to ask that question, something Spencer thinks most people find difficult so deeply entrenched the conventional view is, as are most conventions.
  30. An underwater hockey stick
    Joe Blog. Its not called thermoHALINE for nothing - it is also driven in part by salinity difference. And deepwater formation transports heat into the depths. Best web reference I know is TCH And surely the BIGGIST difference between jurassic and now is not the distribution of heat but the huge difference in CO2 content of atmosphere, able to make up for weaker sun.
  31. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    The strategy of the political bunch is to cite short-term events when they favor lower temperatures, flat or dropping sea levels, upward-trending Arctic sea ice, etc., ignore the short-term events that show the opposite (which happen to be more frequent and/or of greater magnitude), ignore the longer term trends, or simply assert the data is unreliable. To me, this sort of thing is extremely transparent, and I don't think one needs to be particularly astute to reach the same conclusion. I'm thinking the people who tend to be mislead by contrarians are those who want to be mislead. So to the question of why raw sea levels dropped this year, it seems to be combination of the seasonal signal (see the seasonal signal removed graph and note the smaller drop), the failure to apply the inverse barometer adjustment, and la Nina developing (not also the 1998 drop), resulting in a short-term downward trend of global average ocean temperatures (thermal expansion component is therefore downward trending). With la Nina firmly in place, expect the "global cooling" meme to return, as 2011 will almost certainly be off record levels.
  32. What constitutes 'safe' global warming?
    I keep seeing articles that refer to particular atmospheric CO2 levels corresponding to particular global temperature changes. Is there a graph that shows the relationship between the two?
  33. An underwater hockey stick
    CBDunkerson at 04:55 You are confusing energy with temperature... The oceans will absorb energy from the atmosphere... but they cannot warm more than the Temperature anomaly(and that would only be at the surface from LW), the heat flow is always going to be from hot to cold. Water holds vastly more energy than air... to quote Science of Dooms examples * if the oceans cooled down by a tiny 0.1°, transferring their heat to the atmosphere, the atmosphere would heat up by 100°C (it wouldn’t happen like this but it gives an idea of the relative energy in both) * "if the atmosphere transferred so much heat to the oceans that the air temperature went from an average of 15°C to a freezing -15°C, the oceans would heat up by a tiny, almost unnoticeable 0.03°C" Science of Doom Now, what you are proposing is happening in these graphs, is impossible, no two ways about it. Liquid water is extremely opaque to LW, and relatively so to SW, thus the reason the oceans are stratified, Warm water is less dense than cold water. There is no way for LW to heat the bottom water more than the surface at a given location. These observed anomalies in the bottom water cannot be the product of greenhouse warming in these area's. Bibliovermis at 05:38 "If the oceans aren't generating energy, then this assertion that the oceans are heating the atmosphere is nothing more than "It's the Sun!" This isnt actually ground breaking stuff... it has been known for a long time that the THC's velocity can have a huge impact on the climate, energy distribution is the difference between a glaciation, and an interglacial. So you pump more energy from the tropics to the higher latitudes, it results in a raised sea temperature, increased evaporation/water vapor in atmosphere, enhanced GHE, and the additional energy. Slow it down, reduced energy, water vapor/GHE and raised albedo. The difference between a hot house(jurassic) or ice house(present) is the way the continents effect ocean circulation, and the transport o energy around the globe.
  34. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Thanks for the speedy response dana1981. Before I make a rebuttal, I want to make sure I have this right. Do you claim that TIS's concern is unwarranted because climate models are NOT in conflict with temperature measurements of the past?
    Moderator Response: Please see KR's list of suggested appropriate locations for detailed discussion on model performance.

    Note, this not to suggest svettypoo intended to continue here but instead is a general request.

    As was mentioned earlier, the "Latest Posts" list at left is a convenient way of discovering where the crowd has gone.
  35. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    svettypoo - Discussions of climate models should take place on How reliable are climate models, where this is addressed, or perhaps in this case the CO2 was higher in the past thread, where it's clear that solar and CO2 forcings together with other inputs match previous climate behavior (see CO2 is not the only driver of climate). Your claim about model inconsistency is not supportable - and I note that you have presented no evidence in that regard.
  36. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    svettypoo, the problem is when claims are not supported by any known science. For example, your claim "Temperature records of the past are in conflict with what climate models predict" does not seems to have strong bases. And if one such claim is used to disprove one century of science (as TIS did), well, what should one say?
  37. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    svettypoo - generally for a concern to merit a response, it must be substantiated. If TIS says that global warming is caused by unicorn farts, he's probably not going to receive a response for that either.
  38. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    CoalGeologist @39... I have to say, that was very well put.
  39. An underwater hockey stick
    johnd, there's something not quite right with your supposed email from Harry Hendon. You state : "...the following comments he emailed to another researcher, Gary Meyers..." This suggests a personal email (however you managed to get hold of it), but the following from the email suggests otherwise : For those interested, I include a link... This means that it must have been sent to more than one person. Why the difference ?
  40. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    Yeh - I'm not sure why you're pointing out that the science deals in uncertainty. This is a basic assumption of any scientist. That you should mention it suggests that you're trying to point out that no product of science is certain enough to act upon--the old religious "science has no answers!" gag. Of course, you may be reacting to the confidence many posters have here in the physics and evidence that supports AGW. Theory tries to find the explanation that best fits all the data and the physics. The AGW theory is the best fit, and no other comprehensive theory even comes close. Actually, no other comprehensive theory has been offered--even by so-called 'skeptics'. Instead, the AGW theory is attacked relentlessly (some might say 'robotically') by people who think they have the key to disintegrating it. That's all these people seem to be concerned about: disintegration--not alternative explanations. If you're sincere in your doubt about AGW, offer an alternative theory that takes into account as much evidence and physical law as AGW does. As far as the future is concerned, throwing doubt on models and predictions is a safe game, unless the game is being played with live weapons. If you trust your own analysis enough to say that the highest probability outcome for the next fifty years is not relatively rapid warming, then offer an alternative model that takes into account everything that climatologists take into account. If IPCC models were a kicker in a U.S.-style football game, then the IPCC would be up 3 points. Fifteen years ago, maybe not, because they were kicking from the 45 yard line. With the last fifteen years of data, the line of scrimmage has been moved to the 25. It's a game they don't want to win, though. You say "clouds," but it would help if you spread the problem out before using it club-like to attack AGW. Little or no proof or reasoning has been offered to support the idea that significant decreases or increases in cloud cover persisting over the range of climate is in the offing. I've seen a little discussion on albedo vs. insulation, and there doesn't seem to be a consensus as to the more powerful effect. Nothing in the last 30-40 years of warming suggests that a rapid change in cloud response to AGW is happening. Check the publication record. Yao and DelGenio conclude that the net feedback is positive. Indeed, the overall somewhat-less-than-significant-confident consensus is that clouds are a positive feedback. There is nothing in the physics, though, that would suggest a heavy and rapid response one way or the other. In other words, the likelihood that clouds could counter AGW is pretty slim. If they provide a negative feedback, it's probably going to be slight. It's more likely, based on current science, that they'll provide a slight positive feedback, much to our chagrin.
  41. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
    Not to blow my own horn, but there's a fairly extended (some say positively puffy) article on London and rising sea level here: Grappling With Change: London and the River Thames From all accounts London will cope w/1m, it's the upside of uncertainty in projections that inspires consternation. Other places are a different story w/1m. The common thread is that of getting in line for lots of money, early.
  42. The Inconvenient Skeptic at 07:17 AM on 5 October 2010
    Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Sigh... So will it be in bad taste to point out that the labeling on the CO2 chart is mis-labeled. The Taylor Dome is the 11 kYear source and the Law dome data is the 1,000 year source. I agree that this is not a big deal, but that is part of what peer review.
  43. Accelerating ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland
    Re: chrisd3 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009... I make that spanning 7 years of data, by my new-mathy (I actually used my fingers) count. Velicogna refers to it as a 7-year period of data. You're right to query that nine-year interval in the topic of this post. Typo, John? The Yooper
  44. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    Baz - the only forcings we know of are solar, aerosol, GHG and albedo (though on long time scales, you have to consider plate motion as well). You cant have certainty in science so perhaps there is another cause we dont of but that is not the way to bet. On the other hand, we can consider a model which says climate is always a response to those forcings and compare measured climate to those forcings. And it fits extremely well - no mystery about change 35 years ago, nor mid-century cooling nor early 20th rise. And of course GHG emissions models make all these other predictions like stratospheric cooling, arctic amplification, warmer nights etc. Your alternative mystery cause has to fit all these too. And yes, I think everything in climate from this evenings sea breeze, to long term climate has causes in the realms of physics.
  45. Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
    I have been looking for more information in this area as most sea level graphs only go back 15,000 years to the end of the last ice age. 125,000 years ago the earth had 300ppm of CO2 and a temperature 5c warmer than now and sea levels rose 6 to 9 meters. We now have CO2 at 390ppm and rising so what can we expect from sea levels? 6 to 9 meters would be very modest. There needs to be more information on this. A sea level rise of one meter wipes out Holland, London, Florida, and many other industrial areas so we need to know how soon.
  46. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    GC - I am very disappointed that you could be cheering for TIS when you must know from many discussions that his/her points are utterly uninformed and bogus, as many have been discussed with you at length. Are you still having issue with role of CO2 in ice ages? Feel free to take conversation to email.
  47. Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
    GC @71, The Nissan Leaf sounds just right for you. IMHO, EV's will follow a similar trajectory to hybrids and the Leaf will be to EV's what the Prius was to hybrids. There is also the Volt....
  48. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    DSL, Hazlett's profession isn't the point. My point was that it's science's duty to know the 'cause'. Please don't start with the, "You said"!!! I had enough trouble the last time I came here, what's up with people on here, do they read posts too fast? I said, "Given that science is never certain, and climate science falls a long way short of that." Science itself IS never certain. Climate science is the most complex, coupled, non-linear, chaotic system known. So we are indeed a long way short of being certain about it. Clouds have the largest area of uncertainty in climate modelling, and since clouds do have a profound effect then that says a lot about our inability to properly understand the climate system. Science does indeed come to tentative conclusions based on the balance of evidence, but the key word in there is 'evidence'. If your model is set with insufficient knowledge on the effects of something (clouds) that profoundly affects the result, then the 'evidence' is flawed. As I said, climate science falls a long way short of certainty. Unpalletable to some!
  49. Accelerating ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland
    I'm a little confused about this sentence: "This means that Greenland's mass loss doubled over the 9 year period." The following is from the Velicogna 2009 abstract (the full paper is paywalled): "[Greenland] mass loss increased from 137 Gt/yr in 2002–2003 to 286 Gt/yr in 2007–2009...." Isn't this more like five or six years than nine?
  50. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    The Inconvenient Skeptic @#6 & #13, etc.: Thanks (but not really) for providing the summary of unsubstantiated postulates that so-called "skeptics" believe to be true, even in the absence of scientific evidence. You might consider expanding it into a movie script, to be entitled, "The Attack of the Zombie Straw Men" (Tag line: "You can try to destroy them, but they will not die!"). If it weren't for "skeptics" such as yourself, this web site would have no reason to exist... so at some absurd and ironic level, we owe you a debt of gratitude. Your recitative also reminds me of the very first lecture on climate change I ever attended, presented by a "skeptical" geologist colleague who provided a rundown of all the many reasons why he believed AGW to be false. I didn't know enough about climate science at the time to know what specifically was incorrect about his talk.... but I did know that one (and only one) of the following statements was true: a) The entire population of climate scientist (internationally) are utterly incompetent, OR b) This guy was wrong about essentially everything he said. The difference between him and me... and between you and me as well, I would presume, is that the very next day I set about with an open mind to investigate the science behind his claims. Suffice it to say, it was NOT my ultimate conclusion that the entire population of climate scientists are incompetent. If you aspire to skepticism (and it's an admirable pursuit), I recommend you start over from scratch, with no biases this time. And just as a little "heads up", try to bear in mind at all times that there are many factors that influence climate; not just CO2
    Moderator Response: And comments on that particular topic should be posted in CO2 is not the only driver of climate.

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