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Comments 10751 to 10800:

10751. ThinkingMan at 22:40 PM on 26 April 2019
       3 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
       

       Pls ignore the earlier 26 Apr. post.  Its sole purpose was to test adding links, and the test failed.

       This post tries again.  www.afr.com/news/australian-households-pay-highest-power-prices-in-world-20170804-gxp58a.  

10752. ThinkingMan at 22:29 PM on 26 April 2019
       3 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
       

        

        

       www.afr.com/news/australian-households-pay-highest-power-prices-in-world-20170804-gxp58a

10753. Hank11198 at 20:47 PM on 26 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       nigelj @ 15 our solar panels were $30k but got a $10k tax deduction so effectively we paid $20k. We looked at solar panels for a long time and kept seeing the price was dropping every year. But last year we decided it was a good enough payback period to go ahead and purchase. Like I said it truned out much better than we expected.

10754. Eclectic at 12:24 PM on 26 April 2019
       There is no consensus
       

       Pl @787 ,

       of course you are quite correct that there are institutional pressures towards conformity.   As well as the genetically-inherited tendency of humans to "team up" in a tribal manner : just witness the current mindless tribalism in political matters ~ "full steam ahead and damn the facts!"   ;-)

       But your question suggests you are insufficiently aware of the drive towards contrarianism by scientists as individuals.   The up-and-coming scientist seeks not money, but reputation / respect / fame / prestige.  Yes, a Nobel Prize may well be awarded in 10 years' time or more . . . but scientific acclaim this year is a powerful inducement for publishing clever / innovative / iconoclastic work.  And the competition is fierce !

       Similarly, there is no shortage of respected journals that are ready & willing to publish novel dissenting papers (always provided the ideas have some reasonable evidentiary backing . . . and are not just fruitcake speculation.)   A journal gains in prestige by being the first to publish groundbreaking work.

       Between the scores of journals and the 10,000+ climate-related scientists, there is really nothing for you to fear that any worthy contrarian idea will be suppressed.

       Yes, there are a few real scientists who speak against the mainstream climate science, but they have no actual evidence to back up their viewpoint ~ and if you look more closely at them, you find a sorry collection of crackpots / religious nutcases / political extremists / and a few aging "emeritus" types (even a rare Nobel Laureate) whose maverick-inclined personalities have become warped by the early changes of senility.  [  I myself know a once-respected researcher, PhD equipped etc, who is a member in good standing of a local branch of the Flat Earth Society.]

       But let's not get bogged down in Ad Homs ~ however apt & amusing.   The basic problem is that the climate contrarians are still fighting last century's battles ~ and they have no facts to support themselves.

       All they can muster is rhetoric & the unjustified "soft claims" you mention . . . in their attempt to sway the susceptible.

        

       ( btw, since the consensus of climate experts is extremely close to the 100% mark, I am wondering what you can mean by "the method of determining the level of consensus".  What can you be thinking of ? )

10755. pl at 09:02 AM on 26 April 2019
       There is no consensus
       

       Eclectic @786, 

       My comment was mainly about the method of determining the level of consensus. 

       Point 1 ("attractor" theory) addressed my assumption, that the method includes statistics about numbers of articles - which can be strongly biased by such "attractor". If there was another attractor in rather distant past, it has little to do with this argument. However, I also assume that such bias may have been controlled for - I'm simply asking for brief explanation how. 

       Point 2 (peer influence) - I know in the ideal world, scientists have such characteristics as you claim, in real world they often follow direction or advice of their more senior peers, topics are to significant extent determined by projects / programs, etc. Again, I'm not saying this is a big issue, but it's most likely not totally negligible either. I'm interested in how such bias was / would be addressed when determining the level of consensus. 

       On a related note - a foot soldier of science may find it more productive to focus on particulars rather than spending time questioning consensual claims. I'm probably not the only one seeing a bit of positive feedback loop in there. 

       Regarding lack of valid alternative theories - I fully agree. There are softer claims than that though - "the field is young, it's not established science yet, the link to human activity is not conclusive yet" and similar. Only miniscule part of general public is able to determine that themselves, so I find preaching the importance of scientific consensus probably the most effective way. I.e. the arguments for it (specific consensus and it's level in climate science) better be airtight. Therefore my original comment. 

10756. nigelj at 06:10 AM on 26 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       Hank @13,  car bonnet covered in solar panels has been done in photo here. However it's a prototype, so no doubt specially reinforced and expensive like Ger says. Not pretty either, but early days yet.

       An acquaintaince of mine has a solar panel powered house with a tesla battery pack, which has allowed him to go about 90% off grid. His house is passive solar design so built with good insulation, and to maximise heat gain in winter with big windows and the floor as a heat sink, and solar curtains in summer to refelect as much heat as possible. External shutters would be better.

       The panels and battery are an expensive up front investment, with break even in 15 years from memory. I guess government subsidies would help.

       However the panels and batteries are not hugely expensive to my way of thinking. Together they are about the cost of 15sq metres of floor area in New Zealand.

       However it's not clear to me which is better: Centralised solar plant or residential roof top solar. I haven't been able to find any clear article or research, and its not clear which governments should promote the most. Does anyone know?

       Of course being independent off grid is a nice feeling, and you have no more power bills, or minimal power bills. Residential solar power does clearly suit rural communities especially in poor, rural based  countries where its not easy to supply such communities from a centralised power station.

10757. Eclectic at 01:10 AM on 26 April 2019
       There is no consensus
       

       Pl @785 ,

       1. The original "attractor" theory (held up until the 1930's) was that the Earth's climate was self-correcting i.e. homeostatic within narrow limits.  But that was disproven, as experimental & observational & paleo-climatic evidence mounted up.  Satellite-based evidence has re-inforced that, too.

       2. "Peer influence" is not a problem ~ because genuine scientists have a natural tendency to be contrarian & genuinely skeptical.

       The consensus is pretty much unanimous for climatologists, because nowadays (unlike 50 or 100 years ago) the evidence for "CO2/AGW" is conclusive.  There are no longer any "alternative theories" that hold any validity ~ the plausible alternative have been disproven (e.g. GW from variation in cosmic ray intensity; homeostatic cloud formation as an "Iris Effect"; long-cycle ocean current effects).

       If you take time to learn more about the mechanisms influencing global climate, you will recognize that the (mere handful of) "dissenting" climatologists are offering only empty dissent . . . because they have nothing valid to back up their dissent.   They are just running on automatic . . . such as the well-known retired Professor Lindzen, who has an Old Testament religious belief that the Earth has been designed to remain close to the Garden of Eden climate status.  A few others suffer from extremist political beliefs, motivating them to cherry-pick / ignore the plain evidence.

       Please note that the respected scientific journals welcome dissenting views provided that there is reasonable supportive evidence.  (Journals and scientists gain prestige & fame by demonstrating valid contrarian evidence.)  

       But alas, every contrarian idea has failed the validity test, and there are extremely strong reasons why no "undiscovered" factor exists.

10758. Ger at 22:58 PM on 25 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       @Hank @ 13: Not soon, the hood and trunck are not parts of the chasis. For carrying the cells the structure of the hood and trunk should be enforced, guess. Perhaps with "robo heavy hinges and flexible power cables. Cost for such extensions would be not worth the power generated. Windows could be covered with thin film. But there are some safety issues I guess. Perhaps when RoboTaxi is there.

10759. pl at 22:42 PM on 25 April 2019
       There is no consensus
       

       While I do believe there's sufficient consensus, I'd like to see the following considerations addressed. I'm pretty sure it's nothing new, but still it's not something widely discussed in popular science media, so any hints appreciated. 

       1. "Attractor" theory - since CO2 AGW is the predominant one, other alternative theories may not receive the attention and resources thay may potentially deserve, resulting in low number of papers, etc. 

       2. Peer influence - putting pseudoscience outliners aside, I find it plausible those wit mildly dissenting views will feel some pressure to conform to the level they wouldn't if the topic wasn't so controversial. 

       So again, I fully agree there's strong consensus and believe AGW is almost certainly real, methodologically when determining the level of consensus, the above two variables need to be controlled for. I'm just not sure if & how it was done. 

10760. Hank11198 at 20:27 PM on 25 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       nigelj @ 12 I have been following that technology and was wondering if they could be placed on the hood and trunk lids also.

10761. TVC15 at 11:45 AM on 25 April 2019
       It's the sun
       

       @1262 Daniel Bailey

       Thank you!  I learn so much from you guys when I post the denier claims that I'm not confident in answering. 

       Thank you so much! :)

10762. Daniel Bailey at 09:02 AM on 25 April 2019
       It's the sun
       

       "The highest cycle in the 400 years observed"

       Only if you're talking about the 1960s. 

       

       TSI has dropped off since then while temperatures continue to rise.

       

       Actual scientists have unpacked the contributions of natural forcings to climate change; only by including the human-caused warming forcing can the upward rise in observed temperatures be explained.

       

       And actual scientists have quantified the warming forcing from the GHG emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels and have found them to be over 50 times greater than the slight extra warming coming from the Sun itself since 1750

       

       Your "friend" is no scientist.

10763. nigelj at 08:33 AM on 25 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       Hyundai introduces solar roof technology. "The first-generation system for hybrids features a structure of silicon solar panels integrated into a standard car roof that is capable of charging 30 to 60 per cent of the battery over the course of a normal day, depending on weather conditions and other environmental factors."

10764. nigelj at 06:54 AM on 25 April 2019
       Should a Green New Deal include nuclear power?
       

       M Sweet @22 don't apologise for long comments. All quite interesting!

       India has cancelled many of its nuclear projectshere. "While the government did not provide a reason for the nuclear power cancellations, it is likely due to the following challenges: 1) a lack of funding, 2) a supply chain that cannot reliably handle huge increases in orders, and 3) a lack of trained personnel, who can build and operate the plants at the planned level of activity."

10765. TVC15 at 06:42 AM on 25 April 2019
       It's the sun
       

       Hi Again,

       I shared the "Sun & climate: moving in opposite directions" link on a public forum with the snipet: In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions. In the past century, the Sun can explain some of the increase in global temperatures, but a relatively small amount.

       A climate denier swooped in all angry and made these comments: As for that 35 year cooling trend, a child can see the fallacy in that arguement.

       Cooling trend from what? The highest cycle in the 400 years observed. Yet this is followed, in your 35 years of "cooling" by the 2nd and 3rd highest cycles is it not? So against the 400 year average output is still greatly higher- why would we expect cooling of any kind, which could only happen if output was LOWER than the 400 year average? (Solar output is still far higher during the entire 35 years than it was for 400 prior so the sun is still forcing warming, not cooling as you claim).

       I am not quite sure how to respond.

10766. Hank11198 at 06:25 AM on 25 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       Maybe I’m missing something but I don’t know many people that get gas every time they go from home to work. My wife is close to replacing her car and we will definitely buy an electric vehicle. She drives 26 miles to work so a day’s driving will be about 25% of the charge at most. That can be charged in about 2 hours even if on just a 120v outlet.

       
       With all the European countries that are going to ban the sale of gasoline powered cars or actually forbid there use in the country, it’s going to be like going from horse and buggy to autos on steroids. US car manufactures cannot afford to lose the European market so they are going to have to change. And we are seeing that happen.

       
       As for electricity being generated by renewable energy, we built our house about 14 years ago and had foam insulation throughout the exterior walls and rafters. It does a pretty amazing job of keeping the house draft free and noiseless. But with 3000 sq ft our electric bill averaged a little more than $300/month. We had been talking about solar panels for some time and about 18 months ago we decided to install them and make some other changes to reduce that bill since I’m close to retiring. We installed 10 kW solar panels, replaced the seer 10 outside A/C unit with a 16 seer unit, changed every light to LED, and installed a door between the downstairs and the upstairs. Our bill now averages $120/month. And $16 of that is for the special meter they installed for the solar panels. I did not expect it to drop that much so we were very pleased. The total cost was about $25,000. That’s about a 10 year payback even if the rate doesn’t increase, which it has been for the last few years.

       
       I said that to point out that it seems for those that can’t afford the upfront costs that electric companies or the government could have solar installed on houses and the owners use the savings to pay back the costs. Then power companies would not have to build new power plants, it would smooth out the peak usage problem, and people could charge their cars with renewable energy. Just my thoughts.

10767. JWRebel at 04:23 AM on 25 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       @Ignorant Guy
       I have read about battery replacement numerous times. Besides the difficulties mentioned by @7-8, the battery is a significant part of the price for the whole car, and the longevity of the battery is affected by age, temperatures, and how you treat/charge them. They are therefore not fungible like current or gasoline. To get beyond this, you would need to purchase the car plus a battery plan which discounts for deterioration in the battery + maltreatment. Things get complicated because poor treatment occurs more often if it is not your own property. So it's not as straightforward as it seems at first blush, but it is an obvious 'solution' to charging time.

10768. One Planet Only Forever at 01:41 AM on 25 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       In addition to nigelj's comment @2 regarding the "The Next Reckoning: Capitalism and Climate Change", Paul Krugman presents related criticism of the right-wing likes of the Heritage Foundation in "Survival of the Wrongest-Evidence has a well-known liberal bias" in the Opinions section of the NYTimes.

       What Krugman bluntly correctly points out is how consistently incorrect the Right-wing have become.

       My own opinion is that the Right-wing populists are appealing to people who have developed harmful incorrect motives to resist changing their minds about things.

       Many harmful unsustainable social and economic beliefs and actions have developed. They clearly need to be corrected. But people who sense that the corrections will result in them losing some of their developed perception of status can be expected to resist being corrected. They may even understand that they are being harmful, but they are powerfully motivated to continue to be harmfully incorrect by desires to maintain developed perceptions of status through preferred beliefs and related harmful actions.

10769. Evan at 00:29 AM on 25 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       Seems like EV and renewable energy are a perfect example of the chicken-and-the-egg syndrome. To build more renewable energy generation we need storage. For EVs to make sense we need more renewable energy generation. We charge at night for 7.5 cents/kwh, and I've seen some programs drop that to 4.5 cents/kwh. No doubt those rates will evolve as more EVs plug in at night, but it seems like a perfect marriage between EVs and renewable energy, because EVs can charge when the power is available, hence a great match to the variability of renewable energy.

       No, I'm not saying anything new nor am I saying anything that the readers here don't already know. Just bringing it back into the conversation. But I don't expect hot-swappable batteries to appear anytime soon. Lots of logisic issues associated with that.

10770. michael sweet at 20:37 PM on 24 April 2019
       Should a Green New Deal include nuclear power?
       

       Sauerj,

       Unfortunately, this week I am too busy to watch more nuclear videos.  Please start using peer-reviewed, written assessments instead of unreviewed sources on the internet.  I doubt others want to read more about nuclear so I will summarize as much as possible.

       While you are concerned about 1.2 million panels per day, (Jacobson has calculated that all materials and labor are cheaper than fossil fuels including this amount), Abbott calculates that worldwide they would have to build 1 nuclear plant every day forever or about 1 nuclear plant every 4-6 days for the US alone to supply all power.  Since they are currently struggling to find laborers for 2 plants in the USA under construction I doubt that could be attempted.

       Questioning Lazard's costs without data to support your claims makes you look bad.  Using nuclear supporters references to industry estimates instead of neutral authorities is arguing black is white.

       1) The opinion of some random internet guy cannot be compared to Abbotts paper published by invitation in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.  The editors peer reviewed it.   Arguing that we should listen to a random internet guy with no qualifications is black versus white.  The fact that the nuclear advocates have not answered Abbott after 10 years indicates that they think he is correct.  

       Nuclear plants cannot recyce their materials since they will be rendered radioactive.  They will probably bury most of the plant on site (intending to leave it there forever) since there is no-where that will accept the nuclear waste.

       2) Lazard is an accepted expert.  Substituting internet analysis for them is black versus white.

       3) KEPCO (the Koreans) are way over budget and way behind schedule on their builds in the UAE.  The budget is secret but estimates are currently $25-30 billion for 4 plants.  China and India budgets are similarly not transparent.  On this basis, you should double your nuclear cost estimates.  The first plant in the UAE is three years overdue.  A nuclear supporter told me that the first plant was built on time because they claimed it was finished in 2016 even though it is currently three years past due for generating power.  There must be serious construction defects to keep the plant closed. You cannot use build estimates for nuclear proposals.

       You have left out decomissioning costs from your estimates.  For nuclear they are the same or higher as the build costs.  All your nuclear estimates have to be doubled again.  Black versus white.  Most nuclear plant owners seem to be currently planning on getting the government to clean up their mess. 

       By contrast, wind turbines are refurbished and resold when they are replaced by new units (the new units are more efficient).  Nuclear proponents claims that turbines last only 20 years are deliberate lies.

       Jacobson's recent estimates are for buiilding out all power, electricity, transportation and industry.  You appear to be comparing an estimate of most of electricity for nuclear to all power from Jacobson.  All power is about 3 times electricity.  This is a black/white comparison.  Jacobson's estimates include all storage.  Nuclear advocates use pumped storage because it is the most expensive storage and makes renewable look more expensive.  Renewable advocates do not use pumped storage since there do not exist enough locations to build them (b/w).  Most existing pumped storage in the USA was built to store excess nuclear power when nuclear was supposed to be "too cheap to meter".

       You have not included costs of storage for nuclear.  Since the demand for power is not constant during the day or seasonally and nuclear cannot load follow, nuclear requires storage also.  No-one knows how much storage is needed for nuclear since they have not done any analysis, but it would be comparable to storage for renewables (b/w).  

       4) I do not have time to review Schellenberger again.  He compares France to Germany with an unlabeled graph to argue renewable is too expensive (France subsidizes electricity to make people thing nuclear power is cheap).  He has a graph of declining electricity prices declining as more wind is added to argue that renewable is uneconomic.  

       5) I have demonstrated that Schellenberger is a deliberate lier.  Refering to anything he says makes you look very bad.  B/w.

       The nuclear industry killed 1500 people at Fukushima.  There are arguments about how many cancers they have caused.  Hundreds of thousands of people cannot return to their homes.  Nuclear advocates deny they are responsible for the damage they cause.  B/w.

       6) If Shelenberger's graph was genuine he would provide a tracable citation.  Textbooks never generate graphs, they copy them from sombody else.  He should have cited the original source of the graph, not a copy.  If the graph exists, the data is probably from 1990.  Shellenberger is a known lier.  

       7) If nuclear cannot get it straight after 70 years why should I expect them to improve in the future?

       8)  You make yourself look bad parroting the nuclear industry internet position.  Read way more.  All the papers looking at future power systems (there are hundreds of them, not just Jacobson) discount nuclear.

       We did not discuss how you would power Syria, Iran and all of Africa with nuclear.  Your internet wiz refered to new designs which do not use exotic materials which take years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars.  There is no evidence that they can be designed without the necessary exotic materials.  The implied claim that exotic materials are not needed is transparently false.

       Nuclear plants take at least 10 years to build and are generally at least 15 years from first proposed.  If you could overcome peoples resistance it is impossible that significant nuclear could be built before 2035.  That is too late.  Trained engineers, welders and plant operators do not exist.  By contrast, renewable facilities are built by regular engineers and builders who exist in plenty.  Renewable can be built today.

       In a renewable world peak power to back up wind and solar on windless nights is the most valuable.  Baseload power is not valuable.  We need storage not baseload.

       Nuclear is uneconomic.  I am sorry I ran on so long.  

10771. Ger at 18:09 PM on 24 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       @nigelj #7: already there. 

       Semi-automtic battery replacement on city buses

       battery swap system for scooters.

       As far as I know the automobile industry is working on a standard replacement battery. As Tesla is the largest -western- perhpas their system can become a de-facto standard. 

10772. nigelj at 11:01 AM on 24 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       Replacement batteries sound interesting, but firstly the batteries are heavy so are positioned low down in the floor pan towards the centre of the car for good weight distribution and not taking up boot space, and this makes them rather inconvenient to easily remove. Secondly, recharging stations would need a large range of different replacement batteries because of the wide range on the market and this would be challenging to accommodate.

       There are probably solutions to all this like standardised batteries, but by the time some plan is developed recharging times will probably be down around 10 minutes, making the replacement idea redundant. But who knows, its all one possible idea I'm not rubbishing it.

       This will be one to watch. Lexus are planning an electric vehiclehere.

10773. Ignorant Guy at 09:16 AM on 24 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       Toys and other gadgets have battery compartments that can hold standard size batteries, like e g AA cells. So I had this fantasy: The battery in my EV is drying up so when I happen to drive by the (future) service station I drive in for a battery replacement. I stop, go out of my EV, open the hatch in the side of the car, pull out the empty battery (with a lifting device because it's heavy), put the empty battery in the rack for empty batteries, fetch a recharged battery from a rack of recharged batteries, shove it into my car (all this of course with the help of the lifting device), close the hatch, pay for difference in energy between the batteries (because maybe my old battery was not totally empty) and drive off. If I hurry a lot I could reload my car in about 40 seconds. Instead of "fast" charging it in thirty minutes or slow charging it in 5 hours. But exactly nobody (that's right, I am a nobody) proposes this technical solution. So can someone explain to me why this is such a very bad idea? My very bad idea also includes that if you really want to slow charge you car at home or at work you can have it both ways. And of course it also includes that the service stations are optimised to recharge batteries in a cost-effective way that is good for the grid.

10774. scaddenp at 09:05 AM on 24 April 2019
       3 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
       

       Thinkingman. You made the claim:
       "See: https://www.leadingedgeenergy.com.au/highest-electricity-prices-world/ The point is: South Australia’s electricity price became the HIGHEST IN THE WORLD during the second half of 2017." The price was AUD47.13c/kWh.

       I understand that your accusation of moving the goal posts consists of:
       1/ I put a of comparison of countries rather than states
       2/ I used data from other than 2017 when the accusation was made.

       I disagree. While the statement about highest prices in the world is made using 2017 price, the data being used to support that claim is from a report in using comparitive data from 2015 (and published 2016). That report considered only OECD not whole world for comparison. My world countries basis did indeed show countries but it can be trivially seen that AUD47.13 (the SA price) is less than US99.

       In fact, let me summarize what I believe are the facts based on those sources.

       • In 2015, South Australia had higher electricity prices than average price of any OECD country at market exchange rates and higher than any other Portugal on PPP basis (though Japan and Ireland are in there too).
       • In 2017, South Australia may have had a higher rate than any of the OECD countries, but to honestly claim that, the comparison would need to be updated with 2017 prices for those other countries and there is no evidence in either that Leading Edge nor Financial Review did that.
       • In none of 2015, 2016, or 2017 did South Australia have the highest electricity prices in the world whether compared on exchange rates or PP basis.

        

       I would additional concluded that both FR and LE misrepresented their sources and misled their readers, including you.

       I am glad you do recognise that Lazard uses capacity factor since so much misinformation claims they dont. What is your basis for claiming Lazards range of capacity factor and lifetime are flawed? Hopefully not another FF schill.

10775. sidd at 08:18 AM on 24 April 2019
       Should a Green New Deal include nuclear power?
       

       First a quibble. 100% nuke electric for current patterns of consumption means about half of them must load follow.  Lifetime of thermal loop components decreases with thermal cycling, so maintenance cost and downtime rise.

       Much more important: The nuclear industry has lost trust. No matter what the design safeguards and failsafes, it is not clear that in the USA  can build one correctly any more (Vogtle, Sumner) , or operate the current nukes safely.  Davis-Besse is a prime example, the only metal left at some points in containment was the thin layer of chromium plate, all the steel was gone. And Jaczko is absolutely correct, flood defense in US nukes is a travesty. They were warned of flood vulnerabilities for more than a decade and they have done far less than they need to. I think the operating extensions granted to some 40 yr old nukes was a bad decision, and one that will bite.

       sidd

10776. nigelj at 07:59 AM on 24 April 2019
       Should a Green New Deal include nuclear power?
       

       Sauerj @19, I get where you are coming from.

       Regarding Abbots research. It's hardly surprising that people with vested interests have attacked Abbots published research, however the criticism of Abbott has been informal in articles. Until his critics commit to a proper published peer reviewed criticism their criticism obviously lacks rigour.

       I see a potential place for nuclear power, probably alongside renewables, but I think it's really a decision to be made by generating companies on the basis of costs. We all want the cheapest power providing its safe and low carbon, and despite accidents like Chernobyl, nuclear power kills or disables fewer people per mwatt hour than other generating options.

       Right now generating companies are building renewable energy in western countries because nuclear is not cost competitive, and remember generating companies would consider the longer term cost issues you raise. Maybe this would change if resources for wind and solar power start to get scarce, or the nuclear industry reduces costs but these are market issues. What is it governments or you and I can do or say about it? Not much. I dont see a case for governments to artifically favour nuclear power above other options.

       I don't know why nuclear costs are cheaper in Asia. America has strict safety standards and I would not want to see those compomised. But in any event America has to deal with its own realities.

10777. william5331 at 06:14 AM on 24 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       As the article mentions, part of the solution is to induce people to charge their cars when excess power is available.  This is good for the generation companies as well.  For instance, they can reduce the amount of water flowing over the spillway and run it through the generators, making more money from their facility.  The key is smart grids.  not the pitiful ones we have now designed to eliminate meter readings but really smart grids in which the price of 'optional' electricity continually varies according to how much excessis available.  This doesn't apply to power on demand (your house lights for instance) but only for devices such as your hot water cylinder and your wall battery or car battery.  This demand balancing rather than the predominant supply balancing we have at present is good for the customer and for the electric companies.  You dial the amount you are prepared to pay for electricity and if the price falls to that level, you charge your battery.  https://mtkass.blogspot.com/2018/12/energy-storage.html

10778. JWRebel at 01:40 AM on 24 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       No definitive or qualified answer to the question posed in the title. The upshot seems to be that on balance a lot of adaptation will have to occur to the current electrical grid but with planning, incentives, and thoughtful application of forward-looking policies, the impact will be smaller than detractors might claim.

10779. sauerj at 00:29 AM on 24 April 2019
       Should a Green New Deal include nuclear power?
       

       All, I am hardly a NP biased proponent. I have only just began to learn about NP (only starting in the last 9 months). I was technologically agnostic before that (instead only focusing on revenue-neutral carbon tax policy). I would call myself a proponent of skeptical science and due-diligence. I have made my primary motivations (zero GHG emissions) quite clear in the above comments. The above characterizations and snide remarks toward me (#16: "black is white and up is down") are unprofessional. I have been fair, professional and forthcoming; referencing all of my points and pointing out (w/o meanness) where the refs that I provided were not correctly understood (ex. 1.2mm panels per day and for US only). ... Nigelj points out that this latter point doesn't matter b/c NP is cheaper (#14); but, this cost detail is very complicated and not so clear, as I explained above & further explain below. Regardless, I still think a continuous replenishment of 1.2mm panels per day, for the US, forever, (assuming a conservatively high 40-yr life span), even if recycling, is something not to dismiss lightly.

       I am still worried that a 100% RE plan (per Jacobson's plan, who was a big part of this greenman video) would be imprudently bias against NP and close-minded to how NP can help us (in the mix) get to zero GHG emissions as quickly, smartly & justly as possible. I believe that Jacobson's 100% RE 35-year roadmap plan needs more careful cross-examination; and I base this on what appears to be a thorough review video (cited above & again HERE for convenience), as well as per what other reputable people are saying, also pointed out above, such as highly respected people like James Hansen & others), and I feel that this sort of on-going diligent cross-examination of Jacobson's plan should be pointed out (as I have done).

       In the end, I feel that cost should decide, but only provided we are truly & earnestly looking at all costs, and also including all external, long-term costs in the cash flow analysis (which is what the EICDA bill ultimately gets us at (concerning GHG pollution). I am not convinced that that kind of total & comprehensive cost analysis is done w/ Lazard's cost #'s, mostly b/c of the two missing big factors (mentioned in my comments above) which are: non-equal service-life & non-equal reliability (which are not included in Lazard's cash flow analysis).

       1) Abbott (MSweet's 16.1): I didn't address the Abbott 2011 paper (material resource issue, #13 in his paper) b/c it is way over my head technically. By myself, I could never get to the bottom on what is the definitive truth on this. To fairly review this paper, it would take a team of senior NP & geological experts, to be able to give Abbott's conclusions due analytical diligence. I am nowhere near qualified for that.

       But, in order to meagerly attempt to do that (in the last 2-3 days), I have submitted this Abbott 2011 paper to NP experts (who frequent this "RE vs NP" FB public group) to give them a chance to review & comment on this. A 'Colby Kirk' has given me the following information that throws the Abbott 2011 paper into doubt.

       1.1) On Abbott's Material Resource Issue (his point #13):
       Per Colby Kirk: "I reviewed his [Abbott] claims on the limited materials. He didn't give a number of materials per reactor, he just claimed all of these materials are required for nuclear reactors and then did a basic algebra formula based on the reserves limited to only the U.S. This is far from being scientific, quantitative or honest.

       "For instance zirconium ... "15 Metric tons per reactor unit of ACR1000" at 15,000 reactors will still not be an issue [see page 73 of this site HERE for this 15MT/rx #]. 225,000 tons for the world nuclear fleet against a world supply of 73,000,000 tons [sauerj insert: Abbott has this at 56,000,000 tons]. That's also assuming we only use that reactor design, which advanced reactors will eliminate the need for zirconium cladding.

       "None of this brings up the possibility of recycling which would become a large part of the supply line as these materials go up in price. Fuel assemblies go in and come out with the technical possibility of reprocessing and recycling. Different reactor designs have different needs and any bottle neck on certain materials will just motivate a substitution or design pivot."

       1.2) On Abbott's paper being "peer reviewed":
       Per Colby Kirk: "I've learned to not rely on the approval of peer review since lots of easily refuted antinuclear hit pieces get published in the literature under "peer review". Editors and reviewers can play favorites, have bias and also not know what they are looking at, which is unfortunate. I've seen lots of terrible work pass under "peer review". I can say for sure he [Abbott] is citing some widely refuted anti-nuclear hit pieces that were not peer reviewed like SLS. [sauerj inert: See my note below about this SLS paper below (*).]

       "There are also some egregious errors and mistakes in the rest of the paper that any honest reviewer would catch, like cherry picking U235 as the only viable nuclear fuel.
       "The document is labeled under "point of view" [sauerj insert: see top of the Abbott paper & on every corner] which looks to be a debate platform in the IEEE content stream. They talk about "personal positions" and "predictions" without mention of peer review like they do for the rest of the journal. Therefore I doubt it is peer reviewed. HERE is the description of that page. "

       (*) About the non-peer reviewed SLS paper (that Abbott cites 3 places in his 2011 paper): Colby Kirk also sent me the following two rebuttal articles about this SLS paper, see HERE & HERE.

       Finally, on this 16.1 point, I personally could not find where Abbott says that the shortage limit of Be, Nb, Zr, Y, Hf will limit NP to 5% max of total power (NP currently provides 11% of global power today). MSweet, could you cite where Abbott claims this?

       2) Lazard pg 13 Methodology (MSweet's 16.4, 2nd para of 16.4): This page 13 is just an example free cash flow analysis for just one technology (wind). That is why it doesn't show a comparative table for NP. But regardless, no, they probably don't include disposal costs for NP; so that is a fair point. But, they probably don't also include replacement & recycle costs with the RE options either; though this is probably much less $ than that for NP.

       3) Costs (MSweet's 16.4, 1st para of 16.4): My statement above (comment #13) about NP being less than solar & equal to wind (based on slide #2 on THIS site) was not apples-to-apples in comparison; I did not read the slide carefully enough (my error). This slide is a comparison of old fully depreciated NP and new un-depreciated solar & wind, which shows old NP being less cost than new solar & equal to new wind (but this not a fair comparison on new vs new). As MSweet pointed out above (pt 16.4) (in the PDF that I sited), new NP is much more than solar & wind. ... My next thought (per the bottom citations I gave above in #13, & for convenience citing again HERE & HERE) does NP have to be this expensive (based on installations in China, India & South Korea being 25-30% less and per the 3.1 & 3.2 paragraphs below that give credible evidence & references that Jacobson's 100% RE plan would cost 3x more than a Gen III NP plan in reguards to capital costs). But, I fully admit & agree, per Lazard's #'s, without any correction for service-life & equal reliability differences (or without consideration of the capital cost differences per 3.1 & 3.2 below), that new NP does cost more than new RE.

       Lazard's #'s do not account for differences in service-life (per its pg 13 methodology), nor offsetting to achieve equal on-demand reliability (ditto). I think these two are big cost factors that are missing from Lazard's cash flow analysis, which is otherwise quite rigorously & technically well done. This lack of 100% apples-to-apples comparison (due to these two missing points) is the same lack of apples-to-apples consternation as cited in the Grist article above (conveniently cited again HERE, see below the "Are renewables cheaper?" header)

       On comparing capital cost differences b/w a 100% RE plan vs a mostly NP plan to supply the US with enough non-carbon energy to de-carbonize the US, the following information is noteworthy:
       3.1) Capital cost to put the US on 100% RE: Per Jacobson, to supply the 1591GW US demand using his 100% RE plan will cost $15.2tr (not counting necessary pumped hydro back-up which adds $1.3tr for every 4 hours of total US grid back-up). Ref: See this video (3:15-4:15) for these Jacobson 100% RE costs #'s.
       3.2) Capital cost to put the US mostly on NP: The Gen III reactors (in SKorea) were built for a cost of $4.4bn/GW. Therefore, to satisfy the US power demand, this would cost $6.7tr (almost 1/3 the cost of the 100% RE costs if the RE plan includes a moderate amount of pumped hydro back-up). And, this NP capital cost could fall to $3tr with Gen IV MSR reactors. These NP costs are per this video (4:50-6:30).

       4) Shellenberger (MSweet's 16.2 [the first 16.2]): MSweet, Could you post which video (& time) is pertinent to where you said he (Shellberger) contradicted himself? If that is so, then you are most right; and I would agree. Yes, there is absolutely nothing wrong with RE driving power prices down.

       5) Shellenberger (MSweet's 16.2 [the 2nd 16.2]): About Fukushima deaths: Shellberger's claims of no deaths due to NP (this video at 14:37) are backed up by the May-2013 UN report (see wiki article, below the "UNSCEAR Report" header), which cites "No radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have been observed among the workers and general public exposed to radiation from the accident". In addition, Shellenberger ref'd the actual UN report, (in the above linked video slide at 14:37), which appears to be extremely thorough (200 pgs). Therefore, I see nothing to make me believe that Shellenberger misrepresented the facts in his video stating that there were no radiation deaths due to NP. Therefore, b/c the nuclear industry didn't technically kill anybody (that all associated deaths were only due to the fault of inappropriate emergency response) per this reputable UN report (that Shellenberger cites), my conclusion is contrary to MSweet's above statement: "Shellenberger denied that the nuclear industry is responsible for the people they killed at Fukushima. The industry demonstrates their complete lack of concern for safety when they do not accept responsibility for the people they kill."

       Regardless to no one dying due to radiation, the Fukushima accident was still not good. But do we throw out any good that NP can provide, in getting to zero emissions, if done safely and prudently, due to a possible bad & risky design at Fukushima?

       6) Material Mass/Power Comparison (MSweet's 16.3): MSweet, On this "tons/Mwh" point, you mentioned above having trouble finding ref docs that Shellberger referenced. To be clear, I used this Shellenberger video at 18:39 for the mass/power ratio #'s that I posted in #9 above. When I check Shellenberger's references here, I was able to quickly find his referenced doc HERE, which then points to HERE to access it. But, you have to have a sign-on clearance to access it, which I don't have. My expectation is that this doc will, in fact, have a Table 10 (that matches the same figures on Shellenberger's slide). So, I believe you might have been too quick to say that Shellenberger's graph was "falsified"; and to call him a "liar". Now possibly you were looking at a different video and slide, b/c the reference Shellenberger cites here (18:39) is not a "pro-nuclear book" but instead a DOE paper (which led me to the above two sites). If you are able to access this report (again HERE), and find no Table 10 to back-up Shell's slide here, then this does discredit him.
       To try to find additional docs on this tons/Mwh ratio subject, I could also ask the above mentioned NP experts for more refs on differences between NP & solar & wind on this point. On the surface, it does jibes w/ my eng sensibilities that solar & wind would far outweigh NP on this ratio due to much lower energy density of the RE's vs NP, especially for the required large scale (per Jacobson's #'s) as outlined in this video (2:40-3:30, and 6:35-8:30).
       At this point, on this mass/power ratio matter, I see nothing that gives me reason to doubt Shellenberger's numbers; and certainly no definitive evidence to classify him as a "falsifier" and a "liar".
       Also, his presentation cites people who were once very anti-nuclear (Brand, Monbiot), but now in their zeal to really get to zero emissions (as smartly & quickly as possible), and in their honest examination of all the facts, these people have changed their minds. This is profoundly moving to me. Hansen's word is also profoundly moving to me, as I mentioned above (#13).

       7) NP Maturity (Nigelj 14): In my learning's about NP (in the last 9 months), I have learned that the NP industry is certainly not fully mature. It may be more mature than the solar industry, but there are many things that could be strategically done to bring the capital cost of safe NP down via alternations/upgrades to different paradigms (from Gen II to Gen III, IV) and construction streamlining techniques. Other countries are moving forward into these more cost competitive & safer paradigms (per all of my points above in #3 of this reply) and lower cost construction techniques.

       In Conclusion: I am not a NP hack; please do not characterize me of that. I am a CC mitigation hawk and active CCL member, who is simply asking questions & trying to learn to find the truth, and I feel that reputable sites & people (as ref'd) legitimize my questions & concerns about a 100% RE plan. With this reply, I feel I have addressed your points comprehensively and professionally, and on subject concerning this greenman video and its Jacobson referenced content.

        

10780. Paul D at 23:23 PM on 23 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       nigelj @ 1

       Every one has to park their car, at work, at home, shopping etc.

       So every parking space is a potential location to have charging technology.
       That can be via induction or direct cable connection. You would just present your charging card and it will bill you electronically.
       Some locations may be difficult, but there are already solutions for the majority.

10781. Johnb at 23:00 PM on 23 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       Charging your EV will become as familiar as charging your phone or iPad, mostly done at home, work or wherever your vehicle remains stationary for a sufficient period. One thing for certain is that the current service station will not have a future and those who retain legacy internal combustion vehicles will find it increasingly difficult to obtain their fuel as volumes decrease. Yes the Grid will be the critical element in the transition.

10782. michael sweet at 20:33 PM on 23 April 2019
       3 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
       

       Thinkingman,

       In response to my statement that your link does not support your calculations you have simply repeated your calculations.  You have still not provided any links to support your calcualtions.

       You appear  to have made up your calculations out of the air.  If you make up calculations you can reach any conclusion you want.

       You need to completely delete your spinning reserve for two reasons:  Renewable energy does not need so much spinning reserve and you have miscalculated the cost of spinning reserve.  Spinning reserve does not produce power (that is why it is called spinning reserve) and has a cost only a small fraction of generating power.  

        

       No-one proposes using a wind only system.  As I stated  above, the combination of wind and solar requires much less gas back up.  You should reduce the amount of gas needed by at least 75%. I recommend you look at actual bids from renewable energy before you start your calculations and provide data to support your wild assumptions.

       Since you have demonstrated that you have no idea how to calculate costs you must provide a revieiwed citation to support your wild claims.  Peer reviewed sources like the ones I cited above show that wind and solar are as reliable as fossil fuels and nuclear power but renewable energy is cheaper.

10783. ThinkingMan at 12:02 PM on 23 April 2019
       3 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
       

       scaddenp, you did in fact move the goal posts.  You wound the clock back a few years.  You substituted the Australian average for the South Australia price.

       During 2017H2, the South Australian electricity price, A$47.13, exceeded prices in Germany and Denmark. Statista.com provides German and Danish prices in euros, respectively 30.48 & 30.1.  The AUD:euro rate can be found at many online sites.  1.504 is representative.  Converted to AUD, the German and Danish prices are A$45.8 and A$45.3.

       With regards to levelized costs, while useful, they are flawed.  Major flaws distorting onshore wind costs include the capacity factor assumptions (too high) and the service life (too long).  Plus, the target ROI for wind is too low relative to natural gas fueled generators.  Correcting these flaws significantly raises estimates of wind's full production costs in the absolute and relative to other sources for electricity.  FYI, you can make the adjustments on and Excel spreadsheet to see for yourself.  Also, FYI, estimates for natural gas and other generators are also appropriate.

10784. scaddenp at 08:52 AM on 23 April 2019
       Sea level rise is exaggerated
       

       Matt, see here for discussion of relative contributors to sealevel rise. Melting ice is only one source and contribution easily quantified - convert mass melted from GRACE to volume and spread over area of ocean. It is less important at the moment that steric rise from warming ocean. Isostatic adjustment is neglible and unaware of arguments claiming it to be important.

10785. nigelj at 07:24 AM on 23 April 2019
       Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
       

       All well and good, but electric cars only make sense if the electricty is generated by renewable energy, so this is going to have to be expanded fairly quickly.

       Electric cars seem like the way of the future to me, in most cases anyway, but how do you charge electric cars in the middle of the day when most people are at work? This will require complicated systems. Perhaps places where charging is best in the middle of the day might suit hydrogen fuel cell cars.

       "Green" hydrogen produced by electrolysis driven by renewable electricity has also been proposed as a fuel for various applications, including providing peak electricty supply (typically currently provided by natural gas etc). Ie the hydrogen is effectively acting as a storage medium for use at the right time. Articlehere.

10786. nigelj at 06:55 AM on 23 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #16
       

       Other news: Trump issues Earth Day message without mentioning climate change

10787. ThinkingMan at 06:26 AM on 23 April 2019
       3 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
       

       This post replies to the:
       • Apparent confusion about the distinction between the cost of reliable electrical service and the prices at which wind turbines sell electricity.
       • Erroneous claim solar panels can take the place of spinning reserves
       • Allegation of fakery
       It also includes an insider’s comment about how preferential treatment by government influences wind’s role as source of electricity.

       The comment is “…we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit ...”. We is Berkshire Hathaway, which owns about 8.5% of U.S. wind turbine capacity. The quote is from the 12 May 2014 issue U.S. News & World Report. Other periodicals have the same quote.

       Disputing my point about reliable power’s cost by pointing out wind wins the bidding process reveals confusion about who picks what. A brief, basic description of the decision making process may resolve the confusion.

       Electricity system decision makers choose between capacity and energy offers from wind turbines, solar panels and conventional generators. Relative prices, government mandates and dispatchability heavily influence how much of each is selected. The quantities are combined into firm service and interruptible service. Reliable service’s cost reflects the sum of prices paid for all the components (baseload + dispatchable + renewables + … ). The same is true of interruptible service’s cost.

       Households, businesses, schools, government agencies and other electricity users choose between firm service and interruptible service. Some choose both. The cost of firm service vs. interruptible service influences the decision. Wind’s selling price typically only indirectly influences the decision, if wind is considered at all.

       Firm service is reliable service. Customers get all the electricity they want when they want it—24 hours a day, 365 days a year …. .

       Interruptible service allows the system operator to restrain or to reduce the quantity of electricity delivered to a customer. Typically, the limitations are temporary. Sophisticated electricity buyers understand the cause and effect relationship between the behavior of wind power and the amount of power delivered to them. They also have expectations for the adverse financial consequences of reduced deliveries. The adverse consequences are weighed against interruptible service’s discount relative to reliable service. Wind’s concurrent selling price influences the decision only if wind obviously influences on the discount (An example is an electricity user that prices some or all of its power with reference to wholesale or spot power prices. Wind power frequently dominates wholesale / spot electricity prices).

       Spinning reserves perform functions different than the pairing of wind turbines with solar panels, and the need for the functions persists when wind is paired with solar.

       Solar and wind can complement each other where seasonal, daily or other surges in one offset contemporaneous lulls in the other. The pairing can also compensate for mismatches between seasonal, daily or other routine fluctuations in demand for electricity and wind turbine output or solar panel output.

       For example, the Georgetown, TX municipal electricity utility pairs solar with wind. A major reason for the pairing is: Seasonal demand peaks when the solar panel capacity factor is high and the wind turbine capacity factor is low.

       In contrast, a major function of spinning reserves is to cope immediately with very short term fluctuations in electricity demand and supply. The causes, timing and nature of the fluctuations typically cannot be forecast. But, experience has taught operators of large electricity systems that something routinely goes wrong somewhere. When Murphy causes a problem, spinning reserves are part of the solution.

       When backing up renewables, spinning reserves help cope with routine, very large short term changes in wind turbine output. Such changes occur during the night, when solar panels are idle. They also occur during the day, when the electricity system is already tuned to the inflow of solar electricity.

       Allegations of fakery put forth by a fossil fuel troll violate the “3 Myths … “ expressed goal of promoting positive discussion (see the blog's introduction). Furthermore, such allegations are blatantly false. Those alleging fakery are challenged to point out where fakery occurred.

       Is there fakery, an arithmetic mistake or a typo in these calculations?
       • $90 = (.29 * $205 + .61 * $40 + .1 * $55)
       • 1.65 is approximately $90 / $55
       • $112 = (.43 * $205 + .49 * $40 + .08 * $55)
       • 2 is approximately $112 / $55

       Do $205, $40 and $55 misrepresent 2018 values for peaker, wind and baseload costs shown on the levelized cost graph featured in the “3 Myths …. “ blog? Does the graph misrepresent the relative prices of each?

       Do you challenge the validity of data provided by ERCOT and ISO New England?

       Do you dispute that wind electricity is intermittent and variable, as generally described and as shown by data provided by ERCOT, ISO New England, The Alberta Electric System Operator, the Australia Energy Market Operator, Germany’s regional operators and others?

       Do you dispute that reliable service has been and remains a key objective of electricity system operators?

       Do you dispute the necessity of supplementing wind with other sources of power to create reliable service?

       With regards to the shares of reliable energy supplied by peakers, wind and spinning reserves, my estimates favor wind. Wind turbine opponents in the recent past typically claimed that every 100 MW of wind capacity had to be backed up by 80 to 100 MW of conventional generating capacity, and that much of the back-up capacity had to operate 24/7. In contrast, my split is 100:55 approx., and only about 5 needs to operate continuously. Furthermore, my splits suggest reliable service structured around wind turbines cuts by 40-50% CO2 emissions relative to reliable service structured around natural gas. These are NOT results a fossil fuel troll would proclaim.

       A wise person once advised: Progress should not be impeded by the pursuit of perfection. Those truly concerned about the environment should settle for progress achievable and feasible today to improve conditions over the next several years and concurrently work towards better solutions to be implemented in the future. That is far more constructive than savaging suggestions that differ by degree rather than direction.

10788. One Planet Only Forever at 00:15 AM on 23 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       In my comment @7 I understand that the authors of the report qualified their claim about the 'merits of peer-on-peer corrective efforts through penalty' with the term "unfettered". But, of course, the the undeniable cause of the problem is "incorrectly or inadequately fettered" irational harmful behaviour, so it would be understood by altruists that any corrective actions should be "helpfully rationally fettered".

10789. MA Rodger at 20:47 PM on 22 April 2019
       Sea level rise is exaggerated
       

       Mat @302,

       As Wikipedia shows, the atmosphere contains a tiny portion of our planet's H2O (12,900 cu km) while the oceans contain the vast majority of it (1.338 billion cu km). An increase in global temperature would raise atmospheric H2O by 7% or 9,000 cu km, and with oceans 351 million sq km in size, that would be enough to cause (or prevent) a sea level rise totalling 0.025mm.

       I am not aware of there being a discrepancy between the evaluation of SLR drivers & observed SLR. For instance, IPCC AR5 Chapter 13 Table 13.1 shows the 'residual' to be well inside the confidence intervals.

10790. Matt at 19:34 PM on 22 April 2019
       Sea level rise is exaggerated
       

       Despite glacial retreat, shrinking polar ice caps and warming oceans, measured sea level rise is merely incremental.  The eplanations of rising land masses now unburdened by the weight of melted ice, and other theories leave me skeptical.  I would have imagined that Atmospheric Moisture Increase in a warmer atmosphere may possibly account for some of the extra water, but cannot find any documentation of a correlation.  Is AMI  a possible explanation for the merely small levels of sea rise?

10791. Riduna at 16:37 PM on 22 April 2019
       The Future for Australian Coal
       

       Australia has great potential for hydrogen production through electrolysis of water using electricity generated from renewable energy. In fact hydrogen produced in this way has already been exported to Japan and indicates growth of a whole new export industry.

       Apart from use in fuel cells to drive emissions free electric cars, hydrogen can be used to replace coking coal in the production of emissions-free steel. This has already been trailed in Sweden and although the steel produced is presently more expensive than steel produced by coking coal the difference in price will reduce as the price of carbon rises.

       Apparently hydrogen is used as a reduction agent in steel production, so provided the hydrogen is sourced from electrolysis of water using renewable energy, it could offer an alternative to present dependence on coking coal as a reduction agent.

10792. One Planet Only Forever at 13:56 PM on 22 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       After giving the "How We Role" study report some additional consideration, I am not convinced of the claim by the researchers that the results of their test raises questions about 'the ability of peer penalties to effectively correct unhelpful behaviour'.

       The authors claim that their observations of behaviours in their game resulted in actions that they determined indicate that “The feuding increased costs for the collective as a whole, which the authors say calls into question how effective unfettered peer punishment is in real life.” The authors offer no 'more effective alternatives for correcting the behaviour of the correction resistant free-riding selfish individuals' (see my comment @4 for an explanation of why the Individuals in the test are also Free-Riders in real life situations (no Individual is actually a Hermit in the Hills).

       The test was not a good representation of a real life situation. But it does expose some things.

       This type of test shows that many socioeconomic-political systems are likely developing a significant number of harmfully selfish individuals who are correction resistant, who resist becoming altruistically helpful.

       It is not surprising that the observed main 'effort to correct' was directed at the Loners (note that the Loners did not appear to attempt to correct the Altruists). Unlike the ones called Free-Riders, the Loners (who are also Free-Riders in any society) had shown no interest in being a helpful part of the group. They only cared about themselves to the detriment of others. At least those referred to as Free-Riders contributed to the group effort and shared the risk of loss. If there were no Loners in a group it seems likely that there would have been corrective actions directed at the Free-riders who contributed a significantly smaller than equitable share.

       And I know that JWRebel @3 is correct that in spite of the Dutch having social safety-net aspects in their society, there are many evaluations of global cultures that identify the Dutch as very significantly independent, even more independent than American culture (though admittedly 'American' is a messy broad diversity of regional cultures that is difficult to make relevant generalizations about, especially statistical generalizations like averages, means and modes).

       Also, the experiment is a 'multi-party Prisoner's Dilemma resulting in an individual vs collective Dilemma'. The lack of interaction before the first round of action is (or should be) a rare situation (and makes the test not a good representation of a real life situation). It sets up an antagonistic starting point for future rounds that also have no opportunity for discussion to occur, just steps of observation and response without Trust, actually damaging to trust. Undeniably, any society will have some people who develop fiercely selfish motivations with a related lack of trust of others because many selfish people understand that they would not trust themselves to 'help others collectively, make a personal sacrifice for a common good' (and they expect Others to be like them, so they don't try to Trust Others).

       Different versions of the experiment would likely produce significantly different results such as:

       • If the participants were allowed to discuss the challenge and their potential actions. The only option offered in some of the 'competitions' was later stage individual attempts to penalize others at a personal cost (no discussion).
       • If the participants were told that the total value of their group of 4 would be compared against all other groups of 4 to determine the 'Best Teams'. This would have dulled any culturally imprinted tendency to compete for individual status rather than collective status.
       • If the participants are told in advance that as they do the steps of the game the other players will have opportunities to justifiably penalize those who have not yet contributed fairly to the communal effort (a one-way only penalizing).

       A major problem with attempts to 'research basic human behaviour' is the difficulty of finding individuals who have not had their thinking significantly influenced by being raised in a competitive selfish motivating rather than cooperative altruism motivating environment (proponents of human behaviour being un-correctable basic nature are incorrect (it is correction resistant, but can be corrected), however the results of competitions for popularity and profit that are not effectively helpfully altruistically (ethically or morally) restrained and limited can make them appear to be Right).

       Even less wealthy societies are rife with the potentially seriously corrupting influences of competition for perceptions of status relative to others, especially the more rapidly developing ones.

       In an Opinion piece in the New York Times, “Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron - We can save our broken economic system from itself.”, Joseph E. Stiglitz presents a claim regarding current developed results of capitalism that is related to what I am pointing out, altruistic governance and limits are required to get Good Results from the power of competition for popularity and profit.

       The perceptions of status need to be corrected. The people with a proven history of helping improve awareness and understanding to develop sustainable corrections and improvements for the benefit of the future of humanity should all have the highest status. Anyone with more wealth and power but who can be shown to be less helpful should be effectively corrected to a status matching how helpful they actually are wanting to be (they can be free to decide what status they want to be at, not how they want status to be measured).

       That correction could happen through Effective Corrective Peer Influence among the wealthiest and most powerful, or Effective Corrective Revolution, or it could not happen (which is the worst result for everyone, including for the selfish ones who incorrectly believe they Won Their Way - it is dangerous to allow Selfishness to significantly influence what happens).

10793. Jonas at 09:52 AM on 22 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       Mon Apr 15, Republicans push anti-wind bills in several states as renewables grow increasingly popular

       Link is wrong. It should probably be:

       https://thinkprogress.org/renewables-wind-texas-north-carolina-attacks-4c09b565ae22/

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Thanks for catching this glitch. The correct link has been inserted into the OP.

10794. william5331 at 05:55 AM on 22 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       Lone wolf farmers should get a copy of Montgomern's book, Growing a Revolution.  They would stand out from their fellow farmers with better crops, less inputs and a better bottom line.  More amazing, they would become the darlings of the local greenies.

10795. sebi at 03:31 AM on 22 April 2019
       Why is Antarctic sea ice growing?
       

       Concerning the trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent, it is worthwile to mention that the wind is the key driver behind its seasonal and annual variability and matter more than anomalies in temperature. Local trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent are thus primarily driven by trends in near-surface wind that either act to accelerate or hamper the seasonal growth/retreat of the sea ice. Consequently, trends in the frequencies and numbers of low and high pressure system, which steer the near-surface winds, or trends in the storm-track location and intensity are of primary importance to understand why Antarctic sea-ice appears to grow/extend in some regions.

       (1) Holland, P. R., & Kwok, R. (2012). Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea ice drift. Nature Geoscience, 5, 872–875. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1627

       (2) Holland, M. M., Landrum, L., Raphael, M., & Stammerjohn, S. (2017). Springtime winds drive Ross sea ice variability and change in the following autumn. Nature Communications, 8, 731. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0

       (3) Holland, P. R. (2014). The seasonality of Antarctic sea ice trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 4230–4237. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060172

       (4) Schemm, S. (2018). Regional trends in weather systems help explain Antarctic sea ice trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079109

10796. scaddenp at 20:20 PM on 21 April 2019
       Should a Green New Deal include nuclear power?
       

       I confess that I didnt look a video - life is too short for listening to spoken word - I read much faster. Furthermore video usually doesnt give you references nor citations. I am happy to look at source references used however. A solar "panel" isnt a great measure, but assuming domestic size (because I bet Shellenberger would use whatever gave him biggest no), it seems installers can frame, wire and install 20 panels in 1-2 days. Given the 174,000  currently employed in coal workforce would seem that they could manage the 1.2 million panels per day. Replacement of existing panels where framing already exists should be faster.

       I actually think nuclear power may have a place - David MacKay's figures in "Sustainable Energy without the hot air" are pretty sobering for the UK - and especially the "gen iv" tech, but I am still waiting a proper (reviewed) response to Abbott and certainly not convinced that the USA needs to consider it.

10797. One Planet Only Forever at 14:42 PM on 21 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       nigelj,

       It can be argued that Lone-Wolf (individualists, fiscal conservatives) are actually Free-Riders of the worst kind.

       In his book "Reasons and Persons", Derek Parfit does an excellent job of arguing that it is morally best for everyone to be Altruistically helpful to others. However, in many competitions, the few who choose to not be altruistically helpful (those Lone-Wolves) benefit from the actions of the Altruists as well as getting more advantage by not participating in the Altruistic actions.

       The Lone-wolves are actually understandably worse than Free-Riders. But they will refuse to accept the arguments clearly proving it, especially if they can win the power to decide what the rules of winning are and who gets rewarded and who gets penalized.

       Right now, harmful political leadership is trying to win the power to make-up rules in their favour by appealing to a diversity of incorrect pursuers of winning (like the greedy and intolerant). Those united groups are comprised of correction resistant people who can fundamentally be expected to be on the Right side of the political spectrum (those resisting change can be helpful, but in this case the harmful resisters of change are clearly acting collectively, and tragically the helpful conservatives struggle to separate from the conservative pack).

       Until the United harmful Right lose that ability to win unjustified immoral power, things will only get worse. Humanity has a tragic habit of waiting too long to disappoint undeserving wealthy and powerful people. Hopefully that will not be the case this time.

       Hopefully it will become common sense that the true measure of merit is "Helpful Altruistic actions to improve awareness and understanding and develop sustainable corrections and improvements for the future of humanity".

       Competition for popularity and profit can clearly distort or corrupt perceptions of worth and status. Correction of what is perceived to be worthy of status will be required, to the detriment of the many Free-Riding Lone-Wolves who have harmfully developed unjustified perceptions of status.

10798. JWRebel at 10:56 AM on 21 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       The suggestion that since the behaviour is culturally conditioned, repeating the study with American students or subjects from a society with more inequality and less safety net may show even stronger results, will probably not be borne out. Dutch people are extremely individualistically oriented, and they are famous for free-loading. Share-ware always receives the lowest possible rewards from Dutch users, and people in the Netherlands typically consider littering to be their own business. Though they have the name for individualism, Americans operate far more co-op type endeavours, and will subject themselves to some form of organizing much more readily than will unruly Dutch students for who the concept of a roommate is already an intolerable affront.

10799. nigelj at 07:55 AM on 21 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       Regarding the "next reckoning capitalism and climate change". I personally feel corporations and free markets have obvious value, but there are downsides as well. The trouble is there's no obvious workable alternative to capitalism, so we either fix capitalism, or our civilisation is in deep trouble.

       The upside of free market capitalism is well enough known. The downside is that corporations act coldly to maximise profit and shareholder value as it's in their charter and thus have little regard for the environment, because the costs are dispersed onto the public (the tragedy of the commons issue). They are sometimes lead by psychopathic out of control egocentric people wanting little more than to amass power and money. But psychopaths are apparently good at running big organisations, so I'm told!

       This has all been traditionally mitigated with a combination of government regulations, taxes, government programmes and access to the courts. The beast has been tamed, more or less. It's worked quite well in the main.

       But something has gone horribly wrong in recent years with all this, with regulation getting a bad name, and the libertarian fanatics winning some of the debate pushing deregulation. The GOP has become very anti tax and anti government regulation, almost fanatically so. It has got even the most well intended socially minded politicians running scared.

       The sheer size of mega corporations like google and facebook gives them huge power. Then there's the power of lobby groups and money in politics, some coming from the fossil fuel lobby and their sympathisers and it all looks like its reached massive proportions.

       It's like the public have been hypnotised, and lead to believe that any constraint over corporations will mean less innovation and / or more expensive products or worse no products at all. The public need to realise none of this needs to follow.

       Regulation doesn't need to reduce innovation and research typically finds regulation that is science and evidence based and related to proper concerns like safety and the environment either has no effect on innovation one way or the other , or actually increases innovation here and here.

       Carbon tax and dividend is a well conceived mechanism to resolve a tragedy of the commons problem that avoids giving governments excessive power. People need to get their head around this.

       People in postions of power also need to be held accountable. It seems like the public are running scared of doing this, which is unfortunate.

10800. nigelj at 07:01 AM on 21 April 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
       

       Lone wolves (individualists, fiscal conservatives) can be frustrating in terms of developing things like government programmes, public healthcare, and carbon fee schemes. I think the reason is because they basically deeply resent free loaders, and this is understandable.

       We need to do more to point out that free loaders are in a minority, and the advantages of public programmes and things like carbon fee and dividend or wind power subsidies outweigh the problems of free loaders. There are also simple mechanisms to minimise free loading like government audit schemes and tests, and team players should embrace these provided they are not malicious.

       Lone wolves need to remember they are often the beneficiaries of numerous public programmes developed by team players, and would not be where they are without these!

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