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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 108651 to 108700:

  1. Is Greenland losing ice? (psst, the answer is yes, at an accelerating rate)
    RSVP, no, you've got it backwards. Fresh water is less dense than salt water, so a sudden inflow of fresh water (e.g., from a collapsing ice cap) is hypothesized to reduce the velocity of the "conveyor belt" because it doesn't sink.
  2. Is Greenland losing ice? (psst, the answer is yes, at an accelerating rate)
    If cold water pouring into the North Atlantic below Greenland is supposedly the motor that drives the ocean's conveyor belt, accelerated melting should favor this mechanism, which I assume helps the Gulf Stream, which I assume means warmer temperatures in New England and Northern Europe, which I assume will convince people that global warming is really happening. The question is whether it is happening as much as people need to be concerned, or is this just a merry go round type convenient political distraction?
  3. Blog review of scientific coherence
    The problem I see here is that climate science doesn't just offer us the few choices this article suggests we have. You can take the 20th century temperature record as the best data set we have while still highlighting the limitations in it. You can have greater faith in the last 50 years of records because of the multiple improvements in the measurement network while worrying about how well we are comparing earlier data to this improved system. You can have even greater faith in the past couple of decades because the data is confirmed by independant satellite measurements. You can enjoy greater certainty in saying that the past decade has been fairly flat because of the satellites. You can even accept the whole data set and still question what is causing the warming. I was just skimming through the Journal of Climate Early Online Releases and came across A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming Timothy DelSole, Michael K. Tippett, Jagadish Shukla Which suggests that the acceleration in warming during 1977-2008 is a consequence of natural variability. I think I've read on SkSci (a Dana1981 comment I think) which suggested all of the recent warming was a product of AGW.
  4. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Ned, I should explain that the highest TA at CRUTEM that I can see is 1.026. Thanks.
  5. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Can Ned or someone please tell me why the red line in Figure 2 achieves a TA of 1.3? I don't understand. I've visited the link for CRUTEM but cannot see where this has come from. Thanks.
  6. Blog review of scientific coherence
    Science uses inductive logic i.e. enumerating instances and making inferences. When there are more than one possible inference, the most plausible explanation will be chosen. "Plausibility" demands the internal consistency that Steve is talking about. Clearly, a theory that accounts for many diverse phenomena has stronger explanatory power than one which does not. Newton amazed his contemporaries by not only explaining the orbit of the Moon, but the reason why there are 2 tides every 24 hours. Evolution by Natural Selection is another excellent example - "Nothing in Biology makes sense except in the light of Evolution" as one great biologist put it. Philosophers of science call this mode of reasoning "Inference to the Best Explanation" (IBE). Inference to the Best Explanation One could argue that the danger of simple overarching explanations is that they lay themselves open to the charge of being "religious beliefs" or held on faith only. It is not surprising that the same charges are often laid against both Evolution and AGW.
  7. Blog review of scientific coherence
    The coherency problem described in this post should sound very familiar to any of us. If skeptics here had an alternative picture, we should disagree on something not all of the many aspects of the science of climate. If, say, I believe it's cosmic rays, we should agree that the temperature record is reliable, surface temperature is rising, ocean is warming too and is acidifying anyway, ecosystems are shifting, ice is melting, sea level is rising, etc. Why on earth we can never agree?
  8. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Albatross (#21), Ned did not mention those old papers; I was just trying to make sure that everyone here remembers how wrong they were. It is great to see the LIA and MWP emerging, albeit somewhat attenuated compared to Hubert Lamb's work but let's not forget that sites like Climate Audit played a part. It is no longer possible to get away with reconstructions that ignore history. What I like about Ljungqvist 2010 and most recent papers is that the data is easily accessible to the general public. This represents a sea change compared to the stonewalling and resistance to FOI requsts that were common in this field.
  9. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    CoalGeologist: "Let all the ants be well stirred..."
  10. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    The court is now convened. Judge: "Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, have you reached a verdict?" "We have, your honor". "And what say you?" "In the matter of Scientific Method v. Loehle and Mann, we find: "On the charge of having incorrectly depicted the significance and magnitude of 20th century warming, we find Dr. Loehle 'Guilty' and Dr. Mann 'Not Guilty'. On the charge of having incorrectly depicted the significance and magnitude of the Medieval Warm Period, we find Dr. Loehle 'Guilty', and Dr. Mann, 'Guilty'. (A stunned murmur ripples through the courtroom.) On the charge of having incorrectly represented the impact of anthropogenic forcing on climate change, the jury finds Dr. Loehle 'Guilty', and Dr. Mann 'Not Guilty'. On the charge that these inaccuracies were premeditated and intentional, the jury was unable to reach a verdict." Judge: "In consideration of the jury's decision, I sentence Dr. Mann to serve 20 years of community service, in addition to the 15 years he has already served. And I sentence, Dr. Loehle to life without parole publishing his findings in Energy and Environment. Bailiff, you may release the defendants on their own recognizance." Members of the jury, the Court thanks you for your service. You are dismissed."
  11. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    muoncounter @20 I wasn't aware of the distinction between the two sources of Cosmic Rays. Do you know whether the underlying fluxes of SCR's from the Sun are constant; as distinct from the levels reaching the Earth which are influenced by Solar cycle influenced shielding of the planet? Or do the raw fluxes vary with the Solar cycle?
  12. A detailed look at the Little Ice Age
    Oh, but it is there, sorry.
  13. A detailed look at the Little Ice Age
    Good job, in the decrease of human population, one could add the decline of native americas due diseases, as their farmland got regrown this could have had an additional cooling effect.
  14. Blog review of scientific coherence
    That 'd.....' word. Not appropriate for this broadcast, but one day someone should do something on denial as the first of the stages of grief. Realists seem to switch between the other four stages depending on the topic of the day. The deniers seem stuck in a loop between denial and anger.
  15. Does Climate Change Really Matter?
    How would 2010 be if we had the same El nino and solar pattern as 1998? 1998-2004 had a solar max that had 140-150 sunspots to 20-30 sun spots and predictions of 50-60 for the peak within the next few years...Take off .1c? Now onto the El nino-1998 based on this map had 2.8c at 3.4, but 1.8c during January 2010. That is 1c difference. This is more support for a 2.8c over 3.4 in 1998. This is only one part of the world, but a huge part of the world and would very likely make sst's number one by a large margin if it was occurring now. So all together you bet we would be warmer and no one would be able to cover it up either. I will guess .2-.3c over 98 for such a year. Do you think that is close?
  16. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    Is there a tipping point with solar values? In other words, once they exceed a certain value warming will continue regardless of whether it is increasing? I would think so. It has average above above 1366 for well over 5 decades. Prior to 1880 it was averaging well under 1335 for sure for over 500 years. Think of this. I a semi-closed system, which we have, there must be a point where you will keep warming as long as you are above a tipping point. Who is to say that we, being at the highest average solar output in over 2,000 years, have not passed that tipping point? No one can say. We do not know where that point is.
  17. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    What exactly does that blue line represent? You say you can out-think myriads of oceanographers, TTTM, I'm sure you'll have no problem figuring it out. Visit the reference if you can't deduce it by eyeball. Ciao for the time being. We're wasting our time.
  18. Blog review of scientific coherence
    That was my guess as to the likely web site in question too Barry ;)
  19. Does Climate Change Really Matter?
    A little more on LA: The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Jeff Masters "The thermometer broke"; if only it were the old movie gimmick, featuring an exploding liquid thermometer.
  20. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    "The poor coverage over 2005-2010 doesnt tell you much - for all we know even more heat might have gone down rather than less." Anything's possible. If you closely look at figure 3, however, the P18 data which appears to be the only data that even vaguely covers the period in question shows the same thing as the rest of the upper ocean. That is that between two points during the period 2005-2010 there is very little warming.
  21. Blog review of scientific coherence
    "I wonder which 'skeptics' web site you found those 239 contradictory arguments?"
    A pretty safe guess, with so many contradictions, would be that it is the most prolific skeptical web site. I can tell you from experience that posts listing the contradictions don't make it through. They swerve too far off-topic, of course, so it's doubtful the point could ever be made there. :-)
  22. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    Nice graph Doug. What exactly does that blue line represent?
  23. Blog review of scientific coherence
    All very nicely put, but makes me wonder about the "science" of it. You try to be very specific: "...an analysis of a single "skeptic" website reveals 239 such contradictions. 239 instances in which apples were said not to exist but then happily grow on trees. 239 clear indications that this so-called "skepticism" amounts to little more than muddled mutterings." but only in a vague way - no sources! - I think you probably should specify the website, why you chose it, and give some idea of how you count the 239 instances - perhaps even be a little more approximate ("over 200" maybe?) From Albatross #10 - I like the references to both consistent and coherent, with their very brief and clear definitions.
  24. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    I just started on my Master's in geology/paleoclimate (as I turn 40). I'm focusing on LIA, and Ljungqvist wasn't on my radar. So, I hit the e-journal database for my school, and the record I found shows this as a 2009 release FWIW. I didn't find a 2010 record at all... sometimes journals release articles early in electronic format before they hit print, so perhaps that's the discrepancy. It's a minor point, but I figured I'd bring it up, since it's now my job to be extremely pedantic ;) Thanks for the article, though - it should be useful in a presentation I have to give next week.
  25. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Awesome, thanks Barry.
  26. Blog review of scientific coherence
    Nice post. To some extent you can distinguish between a genuine skeptic and denialist by asking them where they disagree with the AGW hypothesis. The only place left for genuine skeptics is feedbacks - their sign and magnitude. True denialists won't concede anything. The shop keeper in the dead parrot sketch is a denialist - the worst sort, because he knows he is lying.
  27. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    But I see you how your complaints apply. The OHC problem is that energy inbalance as measured by Argo array. The S&J shows evidence of heat going into deep ocean over its period of measurement that would not have been counted EVEN if Argo had been in place since 1980. It provides evidence of where some of the missing heat might be. The poor coverage over 2005-2010 doesnt tell you much - for all we know even more heat might have gone down rather than less.
  28. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Albatross, as far as I know, M&M only ever did a reconstruction from 1400AD. Dunno if it's useful to you, but it's on page 765 [p. 17 in Acrobat] in their 2003 paper. http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/MM03.pdf No other reconstruction puts 15th century temps at higher than modern.
  29. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    No TTTM, you've been vague and nonspecific in your complaints about P&J. The more you've talked, the farther into the counterfactual you've veered. Counter: We have a better picture now of the oceans than we've ever had. You dont seem to have a problem believing the warming "observed" when we haphazardly sampled small areas of the ocean via XBTs. Now that we're sampling far better with the 3000 strong purpose built Argo array, woah! The warming just isn't there. Factual: Trenberth 2010
  30. Blog review of scientific coherence
    Tarcisio José D'Avila at 11:37 Yes, but evaporation is also increasing the opacity of the atmosphere, what altitude the water condenses matters, and time frame its in its vapor state(turnover) etc... a very interesting subject, but one i will not be forming a concrete opinion on anytime soon... but a few good threads over at "the science of doom" on that subject.
  31. Blog review of scientific coherence
    Stephan, good job. The scientist in me gets a little uneasy with your narrative, but that is not important-- it is resonating with people and pointing out to them the logical fallacies, contradictions and circular reasoning invoked by "skeptics" and those in denial about AGW. The only real consistent (i.e., no flip flopping), coherent (i.e., multiple independent lines of evidence) picture emerging form all the data and science is one that is consistent with the theory of AGW. You might want to ask WHY someone is telling you that the price of sheep is unknown but to buy some b/c that they are cheap.... I think an obvious point that may need to be highlighted is that by throwing so may ideas out there, regardless of how incorrect they are, it acts to create the impression of debate, the impression of doubt or uncertainty. When people are confused or in doubt they tend to be reluctant to take action. I'm hoping that we can figure out a way to counter that. I wonder which 'skeptics' web site you found those 239 contradictory arguments? I'm hoping that you will let us know in good time ;)
  32. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    I have already made my specific complaints re the paper. But it relates more to the conclusions others have drawn from it particularly regarding the implications of the recent (2005-2010) inability to balance the OHC budget.
  33. Philippe Chantreau at 11:42 AM on 29 September 2010
    French translation of the Scientific Guide to 'Skeptics Handbook'
    Glad you had a good time JM, the South is where my dad lives.
  34. Tarcisio José D at 11:37 AM on 29 September 2010
    Blog review of scientific coherence
    Joe Blog #5 "I have no time for emotional arguments, facts are what count. Wherever they happen to lead. For AGW, there is enough evidence to convince me we are effecting climate through co2 emissions." AGW só é verdade por que o termostato do clima esta quebrado , não consegue reagir às emissões de CO2. Se houver água no solo para evaporar, o mecanismo convectivo se encarregará de levar o calor acima da influencia do AGW apresentando o feedback negativo que tanto se procura. AGW is true only for the climate that the thermostat is broken, can not react to CO2 emissions. If there is water in the soil to evaporate, the convective mechanism will be in charge of taking the heat above the influence of AGW presenting both the negative feedback that is sought.(google tranl.) doug_bostrom #8 Se jogarmos a parcela de ar que se aqueceu pelo contato com o solo para além doa 10000 metros ele estará acima do acolchoado do efeito estufa e não mais retornara ao solo. If we play the part of air warmed by contact with the ground beyond it will donate 10,000 meters above the padding of the greenhouse effect and not returned to the soil.(google tranl.)
  35. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    TTTM - your statement "Alternatively the heat simply isn't there and the theory is deficient and isn't taking into account negative feedback sufficiently" is simply, as pointed out, wishful thinking. Purkey et al 2010 makes some clear measurements of the deep ocean, far below the ARGO array, and finds a fair bit of heat down there. We have a really good idea of how much heat the oceans should be accumulating given current conditions; the ARGO arrays weren't showing it over the last few years, so this new evidence indicates where some of it may have gone. Perhaps deep water circulation has increased recently, pushing some of the heat accumulation to the depths? This is something well worth studying. Now, if you have actual complaints about the Purkey methodology, please feel free to voice them! If you instead make unsupported claims contradicted by the evidence, well, then you're not discussing science, but rather your personal opinion. One that's not realistic in terms of the actual world.
  36. Does Climate Change Really Matter?
    How could I have missed that? And to think, all those years studying sophistry at dear old More Science High, wasted.
  37. Blog review of scientific coherence
    Tarcisio I ran the Google translator on your description and I see your plan is to push energy into latent heat but where does it go from there?
  38. Blog review of scientific coherence
    archiesteel at 11:09 I dont disagree with you, there is nothing wrong with talking about possibilities and probabilities, and there are always exceptions to rules. Im talking about emotive reasoning, rather than passion i suppose. But with probabilities and possibilities, it pays to state them as such. But there are people who talk planetary extinction in 50 years etc... this is not informed opinion. And this is from where im drawing parallels.
  39. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    That's the whole point (which you keep missing): ARGO doesn't go deep enough to provide a complete picture of ocean depths. Hence the P&J research. You're still trying to weasel out of admitting you were wrong about this. Typical.
  40. Blog review of scientific coherence
    @Joe Blog: I disagree. Being passionate does not a priori mean that one will be irrational. Sure, it often does, but you can't use someone's passion as a reason to dismiss their arguments; rather, the latter need to be judged independently in order to assess their validity. Not many people claim there is going to be a catastrophe with absolute certainty. Instead, you have quite a few people who are (rightly) concerned about the risk of catastrophic consequences. Ignoring a threat just because it might not concretize with absolute certainty is not a good survival strategy.
  41. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    We have a better picture now of the oceans than we've ever had. You dont seem to have a problem believing the warming "observed" when we haphazardly sampled small areas of the ocean via XBTs. Now that we're sampling far better with the 3000 strong purpose built Argo array, woah! The warming just isn't there. That represents a significant problem to AGW theory when that theory suggests heat must be accumulating in the oceans.
  42. Blog review of scientific coherence
    A lot o peoples decision making, is emotional... Emotion dosnt necessarily have anything to do with logic, and its not restricted to one view point or another on a subject... it is a human condition. Passionate people cant be trusted to make rational decisions is what it comes down too. Their viewpoint will be the result of their upbringing. Not necessarily their IQ. But as i said, this is not restricted to one view point or the other in any subject! How can a scientist be religious? It happens, and it dosnt mean they are stupid. I have no time for emotional arguments, facts are what count. Wherever they happen to lead. For AGW, there is enough evidence to convince me we are effecting climate through co2 emissions. As to the extent, that is why im interested in the subject, id like to have an informed opinion... And from what i have read on the subject, this is still a bit o a grey area, as far as water vapor feedback go... so someone passionately preaching catastrophe falls into the same category to me, as those you call denialists... passionate people ;-)
  43. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    @TTTM: wishing it won't make it so. Some of heat *is* there, there's no reason to believe there isn't more in other abyssal depths and such. What we know is that we don't have an accurate picture of the entire oceans as far as temperature goes - yet contrarians and deniers have no problems affirming there's missing heat, which in their politically-motivated minds means AGW is no longer happening. As we've shown, the P&J paper remains unscathed by your criticism. Now would be a good time to admit you were wrong and move on.
  44. Blog review of scientific coherence
    This is some funny and insightful commentary on the psychology of global warming denial. That said, my reaction while reading it was something like this: "I know the 'skeptic community' puts forth all these contradictory arguments, but is it really true that any one individual will say that the earth isn't warming *and* that it is warming naturally?" I was relieved when I read that "an analysis of a single “skeptic” website reveals 239 such contradictions" - but where's the link? I can easily imagine that you analyzed such a site, but I can also imagine that it's a site comprising many individual viewpoints - 239 of them, even - but that none of them are themselves incoherent. If that's the case, that's fine, it still demonstrates that the denialist movement is incoherent, but it kind of undermines the "your resident skeptic" piece of the essay. Anyway, I'd be happier if I knew who or what you were talking about and could assess the claim for myself.
  45. Does Climate Change Really Matter?
    Muoncounter, no, absolutely there's no way to have too much water. Witness Stanislav Lem's character Ijon Tichy: ...Tichy has to escape from a planet whose government has legislated that all of its inhabitants shall henceforth breathe underwater. The citizens sing patriotic anthems about fish and humidity, and learn that in a future paradise all shall become "gwats" and "sunkers," idealized water-breathing forms. Debates rage over whether gurgling is allowed. Perhaps pro-fossil fuel lobbyists are bureaucrat emissaries from another planet, tricking libertarians here into joining their submarine totalitarian aquatopia?
  46. Tarcisio José D at 10:42 AM on 29 September 2010
    Blog review of scientific coherence
    "The beauty of this is that you don’t need data or peer-reviewed science to be sure: If an argument is incoherent or mutually contradictory, then you can be confident that it is wrong." I'm sure, widout of peer-reviewd science, bat "greenhouse effect,the bigger the better" because it's no water in the soil for to control the temperature of the enviroment. It's easy to see at www.scam.com.br/tjdavila/solo/pesquisa.html Very nice post Mr. Stephan
  47. Climate scientists respond to Monckton's misinformation
    It depends on the diagnosis, Ken. There'd probably be a second opinion from an expert, but if both experts concluded the same thing, and it was bad news, then the patient would probably . . . go looking for people who would tell him/her exactly what he/she wanted to hear. And if such a person was readily available--indeed, if many such people were being paid to be readily available--then it would be all too easy to jump on the bandwagon. At the funeral, many people would lament and blame everything on the liberal media. I appreciate the thorough debunking of Monckton, but it appears that the surface of the earth would have to be scoured of life before he admitted only to being wrong. As for the admission of deliberate disinformation, it'll never cross his lips, even if he were waterboarded. At most, confronted with the outcome of the disinformation campaign, he'd say he thought he was doing the right thing--the noble excuse of the ignorant wealthy.
  48. Blog review of scientific coherence
    Nicely put Stephen. Wait for the flood of angry denials from, well, denialists, that there is anything contradictory or incoherent in their objections. And I think, in most cases, genuine denials. These people it seems to me live for the moment. A scientist makes a finding on, say, Greenland ice cover, or coral bleaching, or storm frequency. It is a single finding but it is consistent with all the thousands of other findings on global warming in the last thirty years. A scientist reading it will say, "oh, that's interesting, that matches what we know from x", or, "I wonder why the minor inconsistency with y". A denialist reading it has quite a different reaction. For him, or occasionally her, this finding is another threat to a world view in which global warming is not happening, can't be happening, so it must be met with an instant rejection. Greenland was once green, for example, or coral has bleached before, or there were more storms in 1750. Doesn't matter, the important thing is to find a way of denying this single finding, of creating an illusion that a contrary view is not only possible but far more likely. In doing this the denialist has no memory of what he said the previous day or week or year. and little interest in other rejections of the finding. A denialist lives for the moment, sufficient unto the day is the current rejection. We, looking objectively from outside, and not having the amnesia so typical of deniers, sees that all these "answers" are contradictory, can't all be true, wonder why the deniers can't settle on, say, "yes, global warming is happening but it isn't anthropogenic" OR "global warming isn't happening, the models/instruments/proxies are faulty" OR "global warming is happening and has happened before, often (as the models/instruments/proxies tell us) ", rather than trotting out whichever of these suits the purpose on a given day. But if they were to do that they would be thinking in scientific terms (hypothesis/experiment/revised hypothesis) and that isn't what is going on here. The denialist sees himself as at war with the scientific establishment/Greens/UN/socialism and will say whatever it takes to keep winning that war, one battle at a time. And if in doing so they contradict themselves, well then, they contradict themselves.
  49. Does Climate Change Really Matter?
    #27: "no deleterious effect on human culture, regardless of the exact manner of distribution." Curiouser and curiouser. I thought there was ample precedent for problems caused by an excess of rain.
  50. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    Alternatively the heat simply isn't there and the theory is deficient and isn't taking into account negative feedback sufficiently.

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