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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 109001 to 109050:

  1. Positive feedback means runaway warming
    10, nealjking In the introductory paragraph (Advanced version) you say "Climatologists must also take into account "second-order" effects which amplify the initial estimate of the warming. It is not easy to calculate these effects, but the general consensus is that, overall, they magnify the temperature increase by about a factor of 3." This seems to be a reference to fast feedbacks, the ones that increase the warming due to an increase in radiative forcing of 1 W/m2 from about 0.3 C to about 0.8-1.0 C. The remainder of the article appears to describe a carbon-cycle feedback: CO2 affects temperature; temperature affects CO2. Forgive me if I have misunderstood, but if I haven't, don't you think it is a little confusing to conflate the two?
  2. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    Re: Camburn (36) You do realize that the Nature article is from 2008, right? In any case, the study cited as the focus of this post is from 2010, so it seems likely to have more current information. Which shows the deep waters (referenced in the Nature piece) to be statistically significantly warming, not cooling. The Yooper
  3. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    The point is this though-the Oceans are extremely CO2 absorbent (at normal temperatures at any rate)-not only are they able to soak up most of the *normal* CO2 in the Carbon Cycle, they are also able to soak up about 40% of the CO2 generated by burning fossil fuels (which, by its very nature, is no longer part of the natural carbon cycle). So not only is breathing *not* ever going to be a contributor to global warming, but even having an above average CO2 footprint for our digestive activities is not going to be a problem either. Our problems stem *entirely* from the ever increasing amounts of fossil fuels we burn over the whole of our lives. That'll cause us major problems, quite soon, even if there was no such thing as Global Warming!
  4. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    Dana says "In addition to these multiple lines of empirical evidence which contradict the GCR warming theory, the galactic cosmic ray theory cannot easily explain a number of observed fingerprints of the increased greenhouse effect, such as the cooling of the upper atmosphere" Unrelated to the whole cosmic ray hypothesis, the types of radiation are more variable through the solar cycle than TSI, most notably UV. This in itself could most certainly cause upper atmosphere cooling. Through its effect on ozone production and obviously heating o the stratosphere, is primarily through uv absorption by O3. This in itself could most certainly have an effect on the jet stream, and the pressure systems in the troposphere.... there is a lot to be learnt as far as solar effects on climate go. http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/
  5. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    And the waters are cooling as well it seems? http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080430/full/453015c.html
  6. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    #6: "Quite obviously we're not currently experiencing cooling" Yes, all the GCR cooling thus far has definitely been underwhelming.
  7. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    A USEIA report I noted in the Basic version, showing an increase in US population with a concurrent drop in CO2 emissions during 2009, would tend to stick a fork in the notion that breathing contributes to CO2 buildup.
  8. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    muoncounter - note that increased GCR flux would mean increased cloudcover, increased albedo, and global cooling, if the GCR theory were correct. Quite obviously we're not currently experiencing cooling, as 2010 has been a very hot year. I may update the article to include some of that information though. I recalled reading the NASA reports but couldn't remember where to find them. Thanks for that.
  9. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    The GCR-cloud seeding link isn't so obvious: A few comments on the CERN CLOUD experiment here and here. Note two key NASA reports during the last solar minimum: Cosmic rays hit space age high Solar wind loses power The Pierre Auger GCR observatory has as yet unpublished indications of increased frequency of GCR events as the solar magnetic field wound down. All point towards ideal conditions for GCR-induced cloud formation and the cooling that is supposed to accompany it. Annual reports from the US of that so-called cooling: Based on data from January through December [2009], the average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 53.1 degrees F (11.7 degrees C), which is 0.3 degrees F (0.2 degrees C) above the 20th Century average Based on data through the end of 2008, the contiguous U.S. experienced a nationally averaged temperature that was the coolest in more than ten years. The average temperature of 53.0°F (11.7°C) was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century (1901-2000) mean. Conclusion? A definite maybe. This particular piece of science isn't settled.
  10. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    For once I have to agree with your conclusions. Galactic Cosmic Rays do appear to have an effect on cloud formation but it is not the dominant effect that Svensmark, Friis-Christensen and Shariv might wish for. However, the correlation between "Cosmic Ray Intensity" and "Sunspot Number" shown in your Figure 2 is striking. Likewise, Figure 4 that shows the imperfect correlation between "Cloud Formation" and "Cosmic Ray" variation. Personally, I don't buy the idea that GCRs have a major impact on climate but these are interesting correlations that need to be better understood.
  11. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    Re: Akasofu Kevin Trenberth offers up some perspective on Akasofu. Speaks for itself. The Yooper
  12. Hockey stick is broken
    Re: Bodo (38) AFAIK, the missing posts are a result of a dispute between Wordpress and Tamino over content. At one point, one of the two parties pulled all past content. All posts prior to March or so of this year are gone from Tamino's Wordpress blog. Some of the missing content is still accessible, as I note. The Yooper
  13. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    Re: johnd (103)
    "Before you can use points 1-3 to arrive at 4, you have to decide one more condition as proffered in point 1, that being "all else being equal" Where is the evidence that all else is indeed equal? Or has ever been equal for that matter."
    Thanks for pointing that out. The missing step, of course, is the tie that links the rising CO2 to that emitted through fossil fuel use. The extra/increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere can be shown by isotopical analysis to come from fossil fuel emissions. So, all else being equal, unless skeptics can come up with a physical mechanism that explains why fossil-fuel derived CO2 emissions do not act as greenhouse gases, we our causing the temperatures to rise, and the Arctic Ice cap (the Northern Hemisphere's refrigeration equipment) to dwindle. The Yooper
  14. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    Or is a peak in warming 8 years following the 2002 peak? Their line of reasoning seems inconsistent.
  15. Hockey stick is broken
    As far as I know Tamino has written a book, and that may be a reason why he deleted the older post.
  16. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    Good article Dana. One variation I’ve seen on this skeptic argument is that the length of the solar cycle (10.66 years on average) is more meaningful to cloud effects and/or temperatures than the amplitude of the cycle. Cycle 23 was a long one, ~12.5 years long, which means we should experience cooling over the 8 years following the 2002 peak. Of course they predict the next few cycles to be long ones too. I’m sure it’s no more than astrology but some clear evidence against this line of reasoning would be nice to have. A snippet of this idea is presented below with a link to all the gory detail. “The cycle length of cycle 22 which peaked in 1990 was 9.8 years. Landscheidt has suggested a lag of up to 8 years between solar peaks or troughs and temperatures, which would mean a peak warmth from 1995 to 1998. Global temperatures appear to have peaked in 1998. The current longer quieter cycle 23 may be behind the cooling in the last 7+ years.” – Ultralong Solar Cycle 23 and Possible Consequences May 26, 2008
  17. Hockey stick is broken
    Moderator: The link to Tamino's post "Not Alike" in the Further Reading section is broken. The actual link to where it can be accessed is: http://web.archive.org/web/20080220174450/http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/10/19/not-alike/ Courtesy of the Internet Archive Wayback Machine". Tamino's posts older than March of 2010 are gone, and pre-existing links to them are probably broken. Posts older than August 22 of 2008 can be found at the archive search link provided. Anyone have any ideas for missing posts between those dates? The Yooper
  18. A detailed look at galactic cosmic rays
    Thank you, very informative and well written! There is one paper you could add, Rohs et al. 2010: A correlation study of high-altitude and midaltitude clouds and galactic cosmic rays by MIPAS-Envisat, http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009JD012608.shtml They also examined forbush events and they found a small effect (while Calogovic et al. 2010 found no effect), but in the wrong direction!
  19. Billions of Blow Dryers: Some Missing Heat Returns to Haunt Us
    Badgersouth, For the global numbers in this article expressed in W m^-2, multiply by the surface area of the Earth, about 5.1x10^14 m^2 to get from W m^-2 to W (this will be J s^-1). Then if you want to get to Joules over some time period, multiply by the number of seconds in that time period (there are about 3.156x10^7 s per year). Note the time-scale for the estimates in this article is a few decades. Hope this helps.
  20. A detailed look at Hansen's 1988 projections
    Could I make a request to dana1981 ? Could the Scenario A and C projected emissions for 2010 also be included in Table 1 in the main article ? This might help clarify what, inexplicably, is causing so much confusion.
  21. actually thoughtful at 05:08 AM on 27 September 2010
    Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    Doug I have no problem with these basic level posts. As a layman, I sometimes run into situations where a skeptic challenges me on something that I know, but don't remember the details well enough to give a rebuttal that meets my standards - off to skeptical science I go! But lately the trend has been an excess of the super basic and a paucity of posts based on new journal articles. I hasten to add that I understand the work required to read and understand, let alone recast it in a way that appeals to less knowledgeable folks like myself. But that is part of what makes skeptical science so great, and I miss it.
  22. actually thoughtful at 05:00 AM on 27 September 2010
    A detailed look at Hansen's 1988 projections
    The other erroneous component is that "C" was based on a leveling off/rapid decline of CO2 emissions in 2000 (as the article states). This appears to highlight the "skeptic" tactic of looking at the pretty pictures (Scenario C is closest to actual temperatures) and never taking the time to understand why. In reality, it is a visual expression of the fact that we are seeing mild heating in a La Nina (tends to cooling), solar minimum (tends to cooling) and a PDO cooling regime. In the past, these items pointing towards cool would mean global cooling. We have no global cooling. We have global warming, and occasionally, global treading water. One has to wonder - what happens when any of these turns towards warming?
  23. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    kdkd Thanks for the link. While what all is said there may have all kinds of merit, given no better theories etc., I cant see this as more than just a theory, since it all supposedly happened "3.5 billion years ago". The presentation however couches all this stylistically as indisputable fact, which I find a little bothersome, and no less dangerous than dogmatic aspects of myth cultures it may attempt to topple. For instance, are they sure it wasnt 3 billion years and not 3.5 billion years? And if you think I am making a bit too much of this, just wait until "they" come up with a genetically engineered anaerobic bacteria that is going to save us from global warming (if they havent done so already).
  24. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    AT, see the note in the green box at the end of the article.
  25. actually thoughtful at 04:22 AM on 27 September 2010
    Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    I am going to claim this is on topic - I like skepticalscience because, of, well, the science. I know journal articles are being published at least monthly. At the risk of asking others to do work, I request that at least one blog post a month be based on a new science article. It seems we are digging deep to come up with this topical treatment of the lamest denier tactic "well, stop breathing then!"
  26. A detailed look at Hansen's 1988 projections
    Archiesteel#102 "The fact that scenario C looks closer to reality is that it contains *two* erroneous components that cancel each other out and make it appear similar to real-world outcomes (for a while, at least). It is a curiosity, a coincidence, nothing more." As an experienced modeller, I am aware that models can sometimes apparently give the right results due to erroneous components cancelling each other out. Do you mean model sensitivity and radiative forcing are the erroneous components? Model sensitivity at 4.8 °C for 2xCO2 is the same for all scenarios. Therefore, I would be pleased if you would explain the other "erroneous" component in Scenario C that cancels out the error to give the correct real-world results. "Did you even read the article? The reason Scenario 2 (near real-world emissions in) gave inaccurate results was because of a wrong climate sensitivity value (4.2C instead of 3.4C)." Yes I did read the article. I note that you could use a similar sensitivity correction and substitute Scenario C for Scenario B (at least until 2000) and write an almost identical article using Scenario C. This article would be slightly better because it would more accurate than Scenario B for this period. Scenario C has similar forcings to B up until 2000 and diverges thereafter with lower emissions. It is interesting to note that when the scenarios diverge at 2000, the real-world follows Scenario C and not Scenario B. Happenstance? Perhaps.
  27. The Big Picture (2010 version)
    I have a question for cruzn246. Why is it so difficult to trust what the experts in the field of climate have to say?
  28. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    Chrisd3 - yes, thank you. Makes sense now :-)
  29. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    Roger Yes I have seen wildly different figures, some placing cattle meat two orders of magnitude above that of vegatables in terms of Carbon equivalent per unit energy others with much less difference. Here is just one source CO2e from foods
  30. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    chriscanaris@9: "I wouldn't count livestock bred for meat or dairy products since even if we became pure vegans, methane producing animals would still roam the earth (think of the vast herds of American bison and don't forget the termites - another source of CH4)." Nature adjusted well to the CH4 released by billions of methane-producing animals grazing naturally on the earth for millions of years. It is only recently, since we took to burning huge amounts of fossil fuel to disrupt nature, has this become a problem. To see how we have systematically destroyed the earth, I recommend reading Topsoil and Civilization. The fact that we have systematically destroyed most of the world's topsoil makes climate change effects all the more serious.
  31. The Phony War: Lies, Damn Lies and the IPCC
    KDKD: yes, primary science. Now changed. Roger A. Wehage: apologies for my insolence:) Acronym now defined. And thank you both.
  32. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    "For example, what is the basis of the straight line in the figure you show in #14?" The line is simply placed there by the man who made the chart. Fits pretty good. For that matter, where does that graph come from? My, you get your shorts in a wad when something contrary comes up. What is the cause of those wavy ups and downs that ride your straight line? Decadal shifts in the NAO and PDO most likely. It's an accurate temperature record so what does it matter? "There are temperature reconstructions going back to the LIA (some available in the articles below); yet your graph projects the same straight line backwards as well as forwards." It's not an important part of the graph. He is just trying to show warming from 1880 through 200. God, i see so many graphs from the pro folks that start in 1980, what is the problem with this? What is the justification for that?
    Moderator Response: Please use the preview when posting anything other than plain text. Thanks.
  33. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    Lazarus #11: Your response captured the essence of the situation, but it's not really accurate, for a couple of reasons. First, the CO2 we exhale actually is "new" CO2. Remember, this is a carbon cycle, not a CO2 cycle. The CO2 we exhale was created by respiration. Second, the carbon in the CO2 generated by fossil fuels burning also came from atmospheric CO2, so it isn't really different from exhaled CO2 in that respect. What's different is that it took millions of years to accumulate, it was sequestered for further millions of years, and we're releasing it over a time span that can be easily measured in decades. What you said was a fair representation of the practical difference between respiration and fossil fuel burning. No matter. The deniers will still catch you out on such oversimplifications and call you a liar or worse.
  34. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    19: "Two Natural Components of the Recent Climate Change" Wow, a paper (published, when?) that sets out to fit straight lines to data and ends up with ... straight lines. And uses the fact that you can fit straight lines to data as proof that straight lines are appropriate: "An intuitive approximation of the changes shown in Figure 1a (NASA:GISS). It is shown as the red line." "The red straight line was drawn by the JMA." And once 0.5C/century is established as the slope of all these lines (with the explanation in Fig 2a that it is "caused by natural cause" -- I didn't make that up), said line is projected back to 1500. Very insightful work. I enjoyed this quote from p. 7: "Although the global average temperature (T) changes can be approximated by a linear relation as a fraction of time (t) (T = at), CO2 changes are more like T= bt^2, suggesting that the T-CO2 relation is not simple." But temperature itself is a simple straight line +/- some decadal ups and downs? I found the graph on watts up, doc, where the word was ... it's all good.
  35. The Phony War: Lies, Damn Lies and the IPCC
    @GC: "You object to my use of the "lies" quote but fail to criticize John for doing the same thing. I guess what really matters is who you agree with." Actually, what really matters seems to be if you're attacking the credibility of a respected statistician or not. That's what you were doing with regards to Tamino, and that's why such snide comments were deleted. Because his work is devastating to the goals of the Climate Denial Machine, Tamino gets attacked a lot. The lesson to learn here is that such behavior won't be tolerated on any serious science site, such as this one.
  36. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    I was challenged to answer a similar question on a forum and paraphrasing myself I answered simply; The CO2 we breath out comes from the food we have eaten, it has just been recycled,it isn't NEW CO2, while the CO2 from burning fossil fuels is.
  37. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    renegadeguy #4 "This article doesn't really answer the question of whether a massive increase in the human population over the last couple of centuries has had an overall effect on CO2 emissions from breathing." Yes, it does. It's a cycle; the size of the cycle doesn't matter, it's still a cycle. No matter how many people there are, the carbon they exhale all came out of the atmosphere in the first place. Of course, this applies only to exhaled CO2. Clearly an increasing population will leads to increasing CO2 emissions in other ways--just not in breathing.
  38. The Phony War: Lies, Damn Lies and the IPCC
    Daniel Bailey (#6), It is not often that I agree with sentiments expressed on this blog and from time to time my comments get a little pointed. Sometimes I get a nudge from John Cook to tone it down Nevertheless, I have a profound respect for John and almost all the folks who show up here even while expressing dissent. Anyone who has tried posting a dissenting opinion on Joe Romm's "Climate Progress" or Tim Lambert's "Deltoid" will tell you that "Decorum" takes a back seat to "Ad hominem" or complete censorship.
  39. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    More on Syun-Ichi Akasofu: click! Agrees with: Ray Evans, Gerhard Gerlich, Roy Spencer, John Christy, Sarah Palin, Vincent R. Gray, Qing-Bin Lu, Denis Rancourt Disagrees with: Martin Parry, IPCC, Al Gore, Svante Arrhenius, Rajendra Pachauri, Gavin Schmidt, RealClimate
  40. The Phony War: Lies, Damn Lies and the IPCC
    scaddenp (#13), You need to lighten up. When I use the "lies" quote it is invariably a caution to be wary of statistics, especially when you have no way to check the data yourself. I think the M&M demolition of the MBH 08 & 09 papers illustrates this point. You object to my use of the "lies" quote but fail to criticize John for doing the same thing. I guess what really matters is who you agree with. Here is a link to an article on the use and misuse of statistics. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1928
    Moderator Response: Not to be hot on the "redirect" trigger but over the last couple of days we've had a spate of possibly useful conversations on a variety of ongoing topics left orphaned in the wrong threads. For those who feel compelled to respond to GC's remark as it specifically pertains to the threadbare hockey stick controversy, please follow up on M&M versus MBH at the Is the Hockey Stick Broken thread.
  41. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    muoncounter: "For example, what is the basis of the straight line in the figure you show in #14? For that matter, where does that graph come from?" Since Google is still our friend :D ...it's from here: Two Natural Components of the Recent Climate Change (3/30/2009): (1) The Recovery from the Little Ice Age (A Possible Cause of Global Warming) and (2) The Multi-decadal Oscillation (The Recent Halting of the Warming) Syun-Ichi Akasofu, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, University of Alaska http://www.webcommentary.com/docs/2natural.pdf
  42. Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
    @phil. Cheers for that. It feels like your shouting on deaf ears most oif the time though... something called economics keeps getting in the way.
  43. Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
    Breathing and bags of lettuce? From a USEIA report regarding the drop in US CO2 emissions in 2009: In 2009, energy-related CO2 emissions in the US saw their largest absolute and percentage decline (405 million metric tons or 7.0 percent) since the start of EIA’s comprehensive record of annual energy data that begins in 1949 ... Changes in CO2 emissions can be decomposed into changes in four major contributing factors: population, per capita GDP, energy intensity of the economy, and carbon intensity of the energy supply. All of these fell in 2009 except for population. Population grew 0.9 percent. So it would appear that what we do and how much of it we do are far more significant than what we eat.
  44. Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
    @64 Having just asked the question myself - about population and CO2 emmissions - I would direct you to the 'does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere' argument.
  45. Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
    Johngee @2 said: I'm a lecturer at a construction college of further education in the uk. I think the construction industry has a hugely important role in reducing CO2 emissions, and I for one (and I'm sure many more here) are very happy to see people like you making use of sites like Skeptical Science.
  46. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    #16: "I didn't know I had to buy the analysis. Pardon me for having free thought." You don't have to buy they analysis. But if you don't you should present some form of analysis of your own. Otherwise, 'free thought' is just opinion. For example, what is the basis of the straight line in the figure you show in #14? For that matter, where does that graph come from? What is the cause of those wavy ups and downs that ride your straight line? There are temperature reconstructions going back to the LIA (some available in the articles below); yet your graph projects the same straight line backwards as well as forwards. What is the justification for that? See Global warming and the unstoppable 1500 year cycle and The LIA and How we know the sun isn't causing global warming for starters. In my former life in the oil business, we used to say 'a straight line trend is your best friend' at which point someone would reply 'until it stops being straight.'
  47. Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
    You see... That's all I was missing!!! The carbon we breathe out comes from the food we eat via cell respiration! Sometimes it has to be said several ways before I get it. A very dead argument methinks.
  48. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    Ever since our remotest ancestors learnt to harness fire for cooking, our CO2 footprint has exceeded that of respiration. Cooking food is thought by some to be a key step in our development as a species - cooked food is more quickly consumed and digested requiring less energy thus freeing us up for more leisurely and intellectual pursuits such as sitting besides bonfires recounting heroic deeds hunting mammoths (or slaughtering our insufferable neighbours). I wouldn't count livestock bred for meat or dairy products since even if we became pure vegans, methane producing animals would still roam the earth (think of the vast herds of American bison and don't forget the termites - another source of CH4). RSVP possibly need not overly fear the addition of wine and beer to our CO2 budget - after all, we discovered the stuff because of natural fermentation (though not all natural fermentation will yield that which gladdens the heart of man - the denizens of the darker recesses of my fridge gladden the heart of none!). Alas, no matter how impeccably renewable our energy sources, our CO2 footprint must exceed that of respiration particularly since activities such as manufacturing steel and concrete result produce waste CO2. Hard as we strive to balance our carbon budget, we still fall victim to the relentless laws of thermodynamics spiralling our way to entropy. As John Maynard Keynes cheerily quipped: in the long run, we're all dead.
  49. Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?
    perseus@7 "Whilst this is usually insignificant if you are a vegetarian..." Check to see where that plastic bag of chopped up lettuce you purchased at the megamall was grown and processed. In the United states it was likely grown and irrigated in Arizona or California, chopped and packaged in Mexico, and consumed in New York and Maine. In Europe it may have been grown and irrigated somewhere around the Mediterranean, chopped and packaged in Africa, and consumed in Sweden and Norway. Yes, the carbon footprint of that package of chopped up lettuce is much less than meat, but much, much more than your backyard garden.
  50. Dikran Marsupial at 21:28 PM on 26 September 2010
    Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
    johngee@2 wrote: "I suppose it comes down to how much GHG's humans bodily functions produce annually compared to how much is recycled by plants annually." The figures shown below suggest that the CO2 flux into the atmposphere from terrestrial plants is about 60Gt C per year (which is vast) if you divide that 60Gt by the human population it would give the number of tons of carbon we would need to consume each year to balance the flux from land plants, I doubt any of us eats quite that much! ;o)

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