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Comments 110101 to 110150:

  1. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Albatross what kind of strange art is that satellite picture?If I'm not mistaken North America has been cooling for the past decade.Your picture shows 1.5 degrees of warming.whats this picture from? The late cretaseus lol pardon my spelling
  2. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Sea ice melting occurs because of warmer sea or air temperatures. Air temperatures north of 80N may be below those needed to cause sea ice to melt but does that mean sea temperature must be similarly below that required to melt sea ice? I don’t think so.
  3. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Adrian, winds, of course, also play an important role. The climate system is a complex and dynamic system that is undergoing rapid changes. For example, in the Arctic the thinning of the sea ice is making it more susceptible to unusual weather patterns such as the dipole anomaly over the Arctic, and to wave action. These dipole anomaly events over the Arctic have happened many times over the 32 yr or so satellite record, you might want to ask yourself why the ice extent, area and volume did not drop this low prior to 2007. All is not well with the Arctic ice, despite what some "skeptics" might be trying to say.
  4. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Adrian... You would watch Dr Barber's lecture that Dappledwater linked above. It's quite interesting. What you read on WUWT is way off the mark. Why they so tenaciously hold to that idea that the arctic ice is recovering I have no idea. But here is a researcher who has been working on this issue for 25 years. He is someone to listen to. Early in the lecture he says that in the 1980's he was skeptical. In the 1990's he estimated the arctic would have ice free summers by 2100. In the late 90's that became mid century. Now he says between 2016 and 2030. If you're waiting for warmer arctic waters to convince you, hang around a little while. They're coming. The REALLY dramatic part of his lecture is where he's talking about trying to locate the thick multi year ice. They literally had to travel for 3 additional days through "rotten ice" to locate the MY ice. Really great lecture. I recommend it. I'd love to see Anthony Watts to do an arctic trip with Dr Barber.
  5. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    The GISS shows extremely hot temperatures in the high arctic when they don't even have any sensors up there at the same time that the DMI is showing below normal temperatures in the summer and they are the ones who are actually measuring the temperature up there.whats up with that?
  6. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    From my understanding as the the supposed great melt of 2007 was happening NASA was reminding people that it was being caused by very unusual wind conditions in the arctic that pushing the ice south to warmer water where it could melt
  7. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Adrian, most of the incoming energy during the short summer seems to be being used to melt ice. Anyhow, do some reading on polar amplification. Also, those DMI are for north 80N, they do not represent Arctic temperatures. That label is highly misleading. I do not know of any reputable climate scientists who says that the Arctic has not warmed significantly in recent decades. Look at this satellite data:
  8. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    If there is now more open water near the north pole than there was in the past that should be reflected in the temperature record for the summer time when most melting is happening .Again the DMI shows no warming....still waiting for a reasonable explination.
  9. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    adrian smits at 08:31 AM on 15 September, 2010 So tell me why does the DMI from Denmark show almost no summer time warming in the arctic.Whats up with that? Its not like the Danes arent a bunch of greenies. = = = = = = = = = = This would be the graph that shows rapid and very strong warming in autumn and winter?
  10. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Adrian: Can you provide a reference to your claim that DMI shows no warming? If you are refering to the graph WUWT likes to show with little warming north of 80 degrees, that is easy to explain. It is entirely ice bound that far north. The ice limits the surface temperature in the summer. As long as it is mostly ice covered the temperature will stay the same. AGW causes the ice to melt faster, not the temperature to rise. Increased heat from AGW is shown by the ice getting thinner. The maps this summer, including today's Cryosphere Today , show much open water near the pole. This was not open water in the past. As the ice continues to thin we will see more open water. WUWT picks that graph so they can deceive people who do not understand how phase changes in ice control the temperature. Last winter it was warm at the pole. The winter temperatures are affected by AGW now, the summer temps will go up once the ice melts out.
  11. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    @PDA: "What evidence would you find convincing of a human fingerprint on global climate change?" I already tried asking that question (or one quite similar) and didn't get an answer. I think this says a lot about Baz's intentions in posting these contrarian opinions.
  12. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    @Baz: "The Earth hasn't continued to warm significantly. I'm happy to accept bumps in temps along the way, but we have had 10 years now of remarkably stable temperatures." Only if you cherry-pick time frames. You have to realize that, if the last 10 years don't show "significant" warming, they also don't show "significant" stability. In fact, it shows *nothing* significantly. So your statement (that we've had remarkably stable temperatures) is just as incorrect as claiming there's been statistically significant warming over the past 10 years, significant cooling over the past 6 years, and dramatic warming since the past 4 years (even though the trend for the last 10 and 4 years has been positive, and the last 6 is negative). In other words, you cannot claim that we are in a cooling or stable period, because the signal-to-noise ratio is too low. Ergo, as long as you continue to make this claim you will be wrong (from a scientific point of view). "With increasing CO2 we should surely see that mercury rising, shouldn't we Guy? What's happened to the heat?" ...but we *are* seeing that mercury rising: Here are the trends for the last 10, 5, 4 and 3 years "Albatross. Quote realclimate again and I'll counter with Lord Monckton!" ...except Lord Monckton has been caught fabricating facts, while RealClimate hasn't. Careful, your bias is beginning to show... "JMurphy. Not worthy of a response, I'm afraid. But if you want to re-write that in a more-polite manner, then I'd be happy to." That's rather convenient, isn't it? We've shown you where you made a mistake (after you admitted yourself you weren't "rational", a strange admission to make in a scientific thread), and yet you insist on repeating the same debunked claims. How should we treat you, exactly?
  13. It's not bad
    Re: Johngee (37) Dude, ya gotta warn people when posting a link to a video with Monckton testifying in from of Congress!!! You owe me a new keyboard. ;) Re: Johngee (36) Another game-changer; Caldeira has been predicting this for some time (don't have the links handy, but Lord Google Scholar finds much). Tropical forests will continue to be carbon sinks, but temperate & boreal forests transition to net carbon emitters with rising temps (multifactoral reasons). A suggestion: links to papers are appreciated, but it is customary (and just good form) to preface with a summary of understanding of what to expect. This goes double with videos with Monckton... Re: Johngee (35) See above comment about good form (and remember: always book good money on the T-Rex vs people). Make sure to watch the entire Alley CO2 Biggest Control Knob lecture. The Yooper
  14. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    @Eric: "That "single" population is the worst by percentage, but smaller populations like Western Hudson Bay can't sustain a harvest of 44 out of 1000 either." That is a bit above the 2-3% that is considered sustainable, but nowhere does it claim the number reductions are due to hunting alone. In fact, details about the WHB region seem to indicate that most of the decline is due to climate change, not over-harvesting: "Between 1987 and 2004, WH declined from 1194 (95% CI = 1020, 1368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794, 1076) in 2004, a reduction of about 22% (Regehr et al. 2007). In particular, the survival of cubs, sub-adults, and old bears were negatively correlated with the date of breakup, i.e., the earlier the breakup, the poorer the survival and conversely. Before 1998 the subpopulation had apparently remained stable (Stirling et al. 1999), indicating that, prior to the onset of a decline brought about by the negative effects of climate warming, the annual harvest of approximately 50 bears had been sustainable." http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/western-hudson-bay.html "The deceptive part is that populations are declining as a whole because of hunting as the primary factor." You haven't established that as a fact. Please provide concrete evidence that the biggest cause of overall declining numbers is over-harvesting. "Climate change is secondary along with other factors" That's not what the research you linked to suggests. "especially when you count climate change as a benefit for some sub-populations." How are polar bear populations benefitting from climate change, exactly? Do you have evidence for this, or is it one more of your faulty assumptions? "The deceptive part is that the entire hunting discussion is missing as if it doesn't exist." Actually, as I've shown above, the research *does* take hunting into account. Only, there's no indication that the hunting by itself had a negative impact on bear population, while it's becoming increasingly clear that climate change does. In other words, you've been shown wrong. The right thing to do at this point would be for you to admit it so we can all move on. Also, I'm noting you (once again) completely ignoring the reality of bears venturing further inland than before (and increasingly foraying in human settlements).
  15. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    So tell me why does the DMI from Denmark show almost no summer time warming in the arctic.Whats up with that? Its not like the Danes arent a bunch of greenies.
  16. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    @papertiger: Jupiter's internal heat source is not hot enough to completely override solar irradiation (the ratio of internal heat to solar irradiation is about 1.7, IIRC), but in any case the equator gets a lot more irradiation than the poles; both end up being pretty much the same temperature. "There is virtually no mixing across the belts and bands of Jupiter for a super-storm to inhibit." Perhaps not, but there is a heat exchange between the poles and the equator. "Unlike the stuff these guys are selling" Which guys are you talking about, exactly? Is this another snide comments suggesting pro-AGW scientists are charlatans? In any case, you miss the central point: there is no observational basis confirming that Jupiter is heating up due to solar irradiance (which has been on a decreasing trend for the past decades).
  17. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    "Quote realclimate again and I'll counter with Lord Monckton" Umm, a reference to realclimate is to the opinion of working, publishing climate scientists, carefully referenced to published works. You seriously believe that Monckton's fantasies are of equal worth? You value clueless amateurs over publishing professionals?
  18. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    Michael sweet - well you did warn me not to bother. I see what you mean. Sigh. Johnd - guilty as charged - I only gave BOM site cursory look. And while I find the idea the that BOM network is better for climate than the global radiation network laughable, I do agree that physics should work at the BOM sites. And it does. The ground is much more efficient radiator than air, so even when no inversion takes place, the boundary layer will have overnight minimum lower than air above. If you insist on using the BOM network, then to see the effect of backradiation, you need to compare data where backradiation is different. Use humidity as proxy for backradiation. Compare rate of overnight cooling from approximately same temperature between time of high humidity and low humidity. You really need hourly data to do this properly but temperature min/max range between say Alice Springs and Northern Queensland should you give a crude idea.
  19. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    The distance from Jupiter's north pole to south pole is shorter than the distance from terminator to terminator (across the equator). This means that there is less intervening matter between the proposed heat source (the planet's core) and the cloud tops over the poles, then there is over the equator. Jupiter's poles should be warmer then the equator, if the sun doesn't drive Jovian weather. The author says "It is believed these changes will be catalysed by storms that merge into one super-storm, inhibiting the planet’s ability to mix heat." Prior to the emergence of the second and third Great Red Spots on Jupiter, the planet's ability to mix heat was closely studied during the 1994 impact of comet Shoemaker Levi. There is virtually no mixing across the belts and bands of Jupiter for a super-storm to inhibit. But there are these new super storms. These great storms are anti cyclones, high pressure areas of heat pushing up from the center, rather then low pressure storms like our hurricanes. Think of them like the turkey timer that pops out when the bird is done. It's not a matter of computer models. You can see Jupiter's "turkey timers" in a backyard telescope. Unlike the stuff these guys are selling, Jupiter has global warming you can see.
  20. It's not bad
    and why not... http://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610#p/a/u/2/g093lhtpEFo
  21. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    just because we cannot attribute warming to anything else, doesn't leave CO2 etc. does it? Is correlation causation? In fact, there is no correlation though, is there? No, correlation is not causation. Greenhouse forcing is not merely correlated with warming, it has certain characteristics which can and have been experimentally shown to account for warming. Satellites have measured less heat escaping to space at the wavelengths which are known - through proven principles of physics - to be absorbed by GHGs. Instruments on the Earth's surface have measured thermal radiation commensurate with that absorbed energy, showing that it is being added to the energy balance of the Earth. With increasing CO2 we should surely see that mercury rising, shouldn't we Guy? What's happened to the heat? Ocean heat content is still rising. So as I'd said before, merely looking at a small portion of one set of data is not sufficient cause to conclude that warming is not occurring, or that the current state of understanding is wrong. what would it take for man-made global warming to be falsified?...Is it, for example, a 10-year long downturn in global temps, or a 10-year period of reduced ocean temps? I think we settled on a period of 15-20 years. We're 10 years into that. As noted, ocean heat content is not decreasing, so even your assertion fails on its face. As I'd also said before, the understanding of global climate change is based on multiple converging lines of evidence. Even if one were to posit that a five- or ten-year drop in surface temperature measurements was statistically significant, you'd still have to contend with the other lines of evidence (ocean heat content, downward radiation at CO2 absorption wavelengths, faster warming at night than during the day, etc.) which indicate warming. So your question has been asked and answered. May I be permitted a question of my own? What evidence would you find convincing of a human fingerprint on global climate change?
  22. It's not bad
    and this http://www.uoguelph.ca/news/2010/08/bbb.html
  23. It's not bad
    Hello all, Just to throw this into the mix... http://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610#p/a/u/1/uE6at2IEUOU
  24. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    Johnd has not bothered to read Spencers' home experiment showing backradiation so he does not understand the basics. He feels it is better to keep an open mind. The temperature of the backradiation is less than the temperature of the surface. That is why you get the temperatures you see in your chart. It is exactly what is expected. The total backradiation is higher than the sun because it is emitted from the entire atmosphere and the sun is a point source. Spencer describes it as 30-75 degrees colder. Yes Johnd, it is confusing that a colder atmosphere can warm the surface with backradiation. Read the links to Spencer where he explains the effect. The backradiation keeps the surface warmer than it would have been, but does not provide heating in the way you seem to be expecting. I see you are over 100 posts on this now and still have not been able to get the basics. Another 100 or so and it will be a contest with the waste heat thread.
  25. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    mfripp - A simpler explanation, courtesy of somebody else here who I can't find a reference to at the moment. A glacier isn't static - snow constantly falls at the top, turns into ice, moves down the glacier, and melts or breaks away at the bottom. Think of this as a queue for concert tickets. The line is 100 people long, with 10 people a minute arriving, and 10 people a minute getting their tickets and entering the show. The makeup of the line is constantly changing, but stays at 100 people long. Now change conditions - a few more (5 per minute?) people start to arrive for tickets, but another gatekeeper comes on shift and an additional 10 people per minute enter the show. That means every minute the line shrinks by 5 people, and after 20 minutes the line is gone. It's not a phase transition, but a change in rates that previously balanced.
  26. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    mfripp - That's an excellent question on what difference does a few degrees make. The reason why it makes a difference is because when you look at glacial growth and shrinkage, it's not a phase transition all by itself (crossing 0C, starting to melt the ice cube), but rather a change in relative rates. Glaciers are constantly accumulating mass at the top - snowfall compacting into ice. Slight warming actually increases this rate, as it's more likely to snow around 0C than -20C; more water in the atmosphere for snowfalls. This ice then moves down the glacial valley, driven by pressure from above, lubricated by meltwater at the bottom, limited by back-pressure from the ice at the lower end of the glacier. At the end of the glacier (terminus) pieces constantly melt, break off (calving or splitting off large chunks). The rate at which this occurs depends on the air temperature at the lower end of the glacier and upon the water temperature. If a glacier is 'static', or not growing or shrinking, then the accumulation and melt/break-off rates are identical. Warming increases the accumulation rate under many conditions (more snow, as above), but greatly increases the melt rate at the terminus. When the rates are out of balance, the total mass of the glacier changes - it shrinks under warming conditions. This is accelerated by factors such as increasing calving and break-offs at the terminus of the glacier reducing the back pressure on the rest of the glacier - it starts to slide faster down the valleys, pushing more ice into the warm terminus. Increased meltwater along the course of the glacier has the same effect - speeding it's movement towards the terminus, the warmest area. So - it's not a phase transition, but rather an adjustment of the accumulation/reduction rates of the glacier that affect its mass with temperature. Is that helpful?
  27. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    At some point, could you explain why a 3-5C temperature change is the difference between glaciers and heatwaves? I believe the data that the difference between ice ages is about 3-5C. I just don't understand. If the temperature outside is 3-5 hotter or colder, then I barely notice the difference. Unless the glacier happens to be on the edge of melting, then why does the small temperature change matter? This is one of the arguments in my office that I am having trouble answering.
    Moderator Response: Good question, and the two responses are good, but please move to a more appropriate thread.
  28. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    Dutil (#4): What is your source for this information? It has been known for years that there is some internal energy source, but that it is that big sounds doubtful. There is no fusion going on even at the core, after all.
  29. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    Trueofvoice 172: No, it does not, but 95 years of that was rising solar factors. Only since 1975 (according to Tamino) have we been significantly influencing the climate. [From this site: Early 20th century warming was in large part due to rising solar activity and relatively quiet volcanic activity. However, both factors have played little to no part in the warming since 1975] VeryTallGuy... "1) You do accept that the earth is warming and that the surface temperature record supports this 2) You don't accept that the earth will continue to warm In order for these not to be in contradiction (the point of the article) you need to 1) Reconcile the current warming with something other than an anthropogenic source 2) Predict that the alternative source of heat has or is about to stop." 1. Surely (in science) just because we cannot attribute warming to anything else, doesn't leave CO2 etc. does it? Is correlation causation? In fact, there is no correlation though, is there? 2. The Earth hasn't continued to warm significantly. I'm happy to accept bumps in temps along the way, but we have had 10 years now of remarkably stable temperatures. 0.40 0.46 0.47 0.44 0.48 0.42 0.40 0.32 0.44 0.49? (2010) How so - against ever-increasing emissions of CO2 and methane? Why isn't the temperature rising Guy? This is exactly why I came on here. I wanted to know what would it take for man-made global warming to be falsified?...Is it, for example, a 10-year long downturn in global temps, or a 10-year period of reduced ocean temps? I think we settled on a period of 15-20 years. We're 10 years into that. Not only that but there's been no cooling from any volcanism in that 10-year period. With increasing CO2 we should surely see that mercury rising, shouldn't we Guy? What's happened to the heat? I'd love to hear your response! Albatross. Quote realclimate again and I'll counter with Lord Monckton! JMurphy. Not worthy of a response, I'm afraid. But if you want to re-write that in a more-polite manner, then I'd be happy to.
  30. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    ansliss has hit the nail on the head: 'skeptics' using this argument are rejecting the sure evidence and accepting the extremely dubious. It is bizarre to think that we can know the climate of the distant planets so well, and not know our own. Such behavior is a very strong indicator that they are not interested in the truth in the first place. They are only interested in vaguely plausible arguments encouraging them to believe what they already believe; or worse yet, to hoodwink others into believing what they themselves know is false.
  31. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    @Graham: How about this for the bullet point answer: "What happens on Jupiter, stays on Jupiter."
  32. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Dappledwater #215 Way beyond my expertise I'm afraid, I'd be bound to get all sorts of things wrong, like claiming spurious accuracy for data, making wide reaching conclusions not supported by other datasets, err.... Seriously, I'm a very, VERY long way from being qualified to post on OHC. Interested to hear what an actual expert would say though.
  33. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    ClimateWatcher... I have to say that I think your excessive use of charts and diagrams is not contributing to your arguments. It's more of a distraction. I'm personally curious about your perspective but find the charts break up the flow of the conversation. You might try imbedding links instead. There is a link at the bottom of the page for the proper technique for doing this. Just trying to be helpful.
  34. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    This from NOAA-NODC: "A second XBT Fall Rate Workshop* will be held August 25-27, 2010 in Hamburg, Germany." Wonder what their findings were?
  35. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    CBD @ 7 - Prof Barber's talk at the Polar Science Conference. His lecture starts at 12 mins.
  36. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    OT, but can we please refrain from using the word "harvest". Not to be pedantic, but wee harvest things that we plant like crops and trees in plantations (i.e., not old growth). We most definitely do not "harvest" polar bears. It is a polar bear hunt. This term has slowly crept into the literature overt the years (thanks to industry reports if I recall correctly), to the point that even conservation and wildlife biologists are now using it. Sigh.
  37. European reanalysis of temperature confirms record warmth in 2010
    @ Daniel Bailey Me again! I've copied bits of your explanation with extra questions... 'Both use a baseline of 1989-2001...' Is this baseline an average temperature for this period? If not, how is this baseline calculated? '...and use anomalies instead of temperatures...' Hang on, what is an anomaly if it isn't a temperature. Is an anomaly a temperature above or below the baseline reference? If not how is an anomaly classified? '...to reduce weather-related noise in the data. Both are surface-layer (2-meter)...' You mean ground surface temperature readings by this? 'Figure 1 shows that, in the 40 years of data shown, land temps away from the tropics have warmed in the last 10 years relative to the other 30 years of data.' Yep I see that. I also see that a line of best fit would show a warming trend for the 40 year period. Can anybody explain the apparent dramatic shift 10-15 years ago? Or can I not read the graph in this manner? @mikemcc 'Johngee - It's a plot of the difference between the calculated global average and an average of those temperatures recorded from 1989 to 2001' Is that kind of what I'm saying above or am I way off? '(if you look at the 'area under the graph' for that period it will average out at 0.0 anomaly). It's showing how the calculated global temperature has changed with respect to that period. The period chosen is arbitrary, though it helps to use the same comparison period as everyone else to make comparisons easier.' Woa there... my calculus is good enough only to regognise that's what your talking about!! The big C is my next mathematical mission... should I choose to accept it :o)
  38. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    CBDunkerson, the site says that in various sub-populations hunting is a problem (e.g. Davis Strait), and warming in others (e.g. WHB). Clearly if the total harvest is sustainable, then climate change is too on a total basis (since it is only a factor for some sub-populations). The deceptive part is that populations are declining as a whole because of hunting as the primary factor. Climate change is secondary along with other factors especially when you count climate change as a benefit for some sub-populations. The deceptive part is that the entire hunting discussion is missing as if it doesn't exist.
  39. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    CBDunkerson... "Barber's point was that the satellites estimates were showing incorrect results for that area... which was proved by direct observation." Isn't this what we call "ground truthing?" The manual, first person observation for validation of satellite data.
  40. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Here, via an email exchange, are the responses from Tim Boyd of the NODC to a set of questions that I posed to him -- see Badgersouth 208. The methodology we use for computing OHC from Argo floats and moored buoys (TAO/PIRATA/RAMA) is the same method we developed for prior data types (CTD, bottle, XBT, MBT) as detailed in the following publications: Levitus, S., J.I. Antonov, T.P. Boyer, R.A. Locarnini, H.E. Garcia, and A.V. Mishonov, 2009: Global Ocean Heat Content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 36, L07608, doi:10.1029/2008GL037155. Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, 2005: Warming of the World Ocean, 1955-2003. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 32, L02604, doi:10.1029GL021592. Levitus, S., J.I. Antonov, T.P. Boyer, C. Stephens, 2000: Warming of the World Ocean. Science, 287, 2225-2229. The basic method remains the same, with some variations, as described in the papers. The largest variant is the correction of XBT data as described in the 2009 paper. The work was done here at the National Oceanographic Data Center. There is, at the moment, no advisory committee. However, the heat content values and method of calcuation are compared by other research groups to their own and others heat content estimates and to model output and to heat content estimates for other parts of the Earth's climate system. The time varying problem with the XBT temperatures was discovered during such a comparison.
  41. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    44, ClimateWatcher: These points should be addressed/incorporated in a simulation that was intended to calculate climate trends (and thus climate sensitivity) by averaged-over dynamics. This article does not describe such a simulation. It's a simple analytical model intended to clarify an issue that has, according to John Cook, come up a number of times before: Yes, it is possible for a dynamical system to have a substantial positive feedback without blowing up.
  42. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    ClimateWatcher, That cloudy days reduce the ocean's absorption of light is offset by the insulatory effect of the cloud cover. The ocean may not absorb as much, but it also can't radiate as much.
  43. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "- Case 2: Sea ice is gone, so that same area is now bare ocean. The Sun's rays come down, and, to excellent approximation, are completely absorbed by the water." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- But only on the clear days: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/np2010/cam1-2010.mov And only when ice has melted and the sun is more than ten degrees above the horizon. (melt season peaks nearer the autumnal equinox when the ceases to shine upon the pole, than the summer solstice when the sun rises to it's max of only 43 degrees or so above the horizon on the Arctic coast). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "The "blanketing" capability of the ice becomes interesting if you think there is some reason that the water under the ice is going to be WARMER than the air, on the average." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On annual average, of course, the Arctic waters are in fact warmer than the air temperatures above the ice. (and even at the same temperatures, the waters would still have a greater heat content).
  44. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    HumanityRules, That you don't like the way a graph looks isn't evidence against its validity. "I'm going with" is also rather vague on supporting evidence. I'm not sure what you think can be accomplished with this kind of argument.
  45. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    Eric #171, as I pointed out there, the 'other thread' was a response to skeptic claims that polar bear numbers are increasing. They cited a 2006 study showing polar bear populations decreasing due to habitat loss. Leaving out that hunting also reduces polar bear numbers is in no way "deceptive" in a thread aimed at countering claims that numbers are INcreasing. That said, the very site you reference says, "Annual harvest is between 500 and 700 bears or 2-3% of the world population of about 25,000 bears and is thought to be sustainable." The total polar bear harvest is thought to be sustainable. They have concerns that individual sub-populations are currently over-hunted, but the quotas are adjusted regularly to address such problems. Over hunting would be a problem if there were no controls in place to stop it. Since there are, and the total polar bear population increased for decades under those hunting controls, it is simply insupportable to claim that hunting is a primary cause of declining polar bear numbers over the past few decades. Habitat loss is a very different story - in that it has caused those trends of increasing polar bear numbers to stop and now reverse and we can't just 'set a new quota' to fix it.
  46. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    You can add the fact the Jupiter emit twice the energy he received from the Sun in space. There is a large internal source of energy that is almost as large as the Sun.
  47. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    Baz, The intransitive of "believe" has two uses: One is to have firm religious conviction; the other is to have an opinion based on thought, meaning "acceptance". The papers in which you will see the word believe will invariably qualify it, as in "We believe a continued downward trend in ice volume is likely". This is called acceptance. No scientist will "believe" in a theory as absolutely true. You have stated, "I stopped believing in AGW when the blue line went down". This essentially means your belief was based on nothing (akin to religious faith), as a five-year trend is simply insufficient to draw conclusions from. Answer me this question: does a five-year period outweigh 130 years of increasing temperatures?
  48. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    archiesteel, from http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/status-table.html. That "single" population is the worst by percentage, but smaller populations like Western Hudson Bay can't sustain a harvest of 44 out of 1000 either. If I am supposedly "minimizing" the CC threat, the other thread is deceptive by leaving out hunting entirely.
  49. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    How about this for a novel skeptic argument: Big Mystery: Jupiter loses a stripe In a development that has transformed the appearance of the solar system's largest planet, one of Jupiter's two main cloud belts has completely disappeared. ... Known as the South Equatorial Belt (SEB), the brown cloudy band is twice as wide as Earth and more than twenty times as long. The loss of such an enormous "stripe" can be seen with ease halfway across the solar system. " This appears to be a 'natural cycle': "The SEB fades at irregular intervals, most recently in 1973-75, 1989-90, 1993, 2007, 2010," If some of these years sound familiar, that's because they are La Nina years! Please note: this was an attempt at humor.
  50. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Badger, Or a workshop which brings all the top scientists in the field into the same room for a week. Something has to be done to sort out this mess. Lyman et al. (2010) have tried and shed some light on the myriad of problems, but I think more still needs to be and must be done on this file. For now, and until shown otherwise, Lyman et al's (2010) conclusion that there has been robust (I bit of an overstatement in my opinion) warming in the global oceans should be taken as the latest and best understanding, and certainly does not support stating that "global warming has not been occurring since 2004".

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