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Comments 110601 to 110650:

  1. What do you get when you put a climate scientist and 52 skeptics in a room?
    My comment mentioning John Daly was deleted so I will not be making any more comments on this blog for a while in protest. Probably most of you will think of that as something to be welcomed, so enjoy! My condolences to Stephen Schneider's family and friends.
    Moderator Response: Note the Comments Policy, which specifically asks you not to post off-topic comments. Discussion of the CRU emails belongs in What do the hacked CRU emails tell us?.
  2. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Dr. Pielke, Read what I wrote again. I never said that you signed the CATO letter/petition, I asked @51 "did you not openly support this petition from CATO?". Watts proclaimed for all to see (as I showed) that you did support the open letter in which they made misleading statements about the global SAT as I showed above. It sounds like you need to take the matter up with Watts. And of course the warming in the 20th century was not a "steady increase", that point only underscores a reality that climate scientists have known for a very long time-- yet it seems to be an attempt by CATO and others to downplay the observed warming. Anyhow to address you points: "i) whether the global annual average upper ocean heat content should be adopted as the primary metric of global warming," OHC is one metric, an important metric, but it should not be viewed in isolation or over short time windows. We need to consider metrics from the cryosphere, oceans and atmosphere when assessing the impact of the planetary energy imbalance. "ii) what is the observational accuracy of this data," There are clearly data issues--see Eli Rabett's comment above to cite just one example (also see AchutaRao et al. 2007, PNAS). I understand that scientists are hard at work addressing those issues, and I have no doubt that with time they will largely remedy them. I would not be surprised if the OHC data undergo several more adjustments in the future. That is exactly why one should not be declaring with authority that global warming has not been occurring since 2004. Especially given that some OHC data which go down to 2000 m indicate that since 2004 the oceans have been accumulating heat in through that column. Not to mention the absurdity of using a ridiculously short time window (in a noisy signal) to make sweeping generalizations. It is also striking that you seem indifferent to the fact that some people with agendas have used your proclamation to "spin" the science. and "iii) if the data are sufficiently accurate, how does the accumulation of heat in Joules compare with the models since 2004 when the data became sufficiently robust for this purpose." This sentence is confusing, you begin suggesting that the data may not be sufficiently accurate, and then say they became sufficiently robust after 2004. I would caution against making comparisons between AOGCM output and OHC over a short window (or for any metric for that matter) as you have done. Right now, it appears that the OHC data are sufficiently accurate to state with high confidence (and statistical significance) that the long-term change in OHC is positive (e.g., AchutaRao et al. 2007), but that the exact rate of increase (or net heat accumulation) over that time is less certain, and that is especially true for changes over the short term. As shown by Schmidt in December 2009, the AOGCMS have done a good jobin predicting the observed global SAT record between 1980 and late 2009. Note that they look at almost 30-years of data, not less than 5 years to arrive at that conclusion. They go even further back to 1955 for the OHC comparison. One could argue that the AOGCMs would not have been able to consistently accurately predict the observed SAT record had there had huge issues with the global OHC. A question from me to you if I may. Where do you expect global 0-2000m OHC to be 20 years form now (circa 2030)? Higher than current, the same or lower? And let us assume that there is no huge equatorial volcanic eruption at that time or in the year or two preceding it. And for what it is worth, I believe that ARGO is a valuable scientific tool, especially once they work out the data issues-- even unraveling the problems is affording the scientists valuable insight into the workings of the ocean.
  3. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    69.EliRabett I included 2000-2003 to show where teh data was coming from. All I can offer you is this period was the time of expansion of the system (at about 800 buoys/year). But real world explanations about trends on graphs always interest me so yep I'd also be interested in how that jump is explained. There is a curious thing going on with some individuals where the best data set, the full ARGO system from 2003 to 2009, comes in for greater critisism than the long term trend in OHC. The long term data is derived from measurement systems probably many orders of magnitude poorer in terms of spatial and temporal coverage. There is a nice little tale on the ARGO website which while not directly related to OHC does give you a flavour of why we should be glad we have the ARGO system. "Lack of sustained observations of the atmosphere, oceans and land have hindered the development and validation of climate models. An example comes from a recent analysis which concluded that the currents transporting heat northwards in the Atlantic and influencing western European climate had weakened by 30% in the past decade. This result had to be based on just five research measurements spread over 40 years. Was this change part of a trend that might lead to a major change in the Atlantic circulation, or due to natural variability that will reverse in the future, or is it an artifact of the limited observations?" Go to http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/index.html to check their emphasis.
  4. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    askaquestion, a long trend is needed for being reasonably certain about atmospheric temperatures not just because of the atmosphere's interaction with oceans, but because of all manner of other sources of variation in the measurements. The measurements are only samples of the population whose "true" value is sought. Such "noise" masking the "signal" being sought (the "true" value--the population value) besets all measurement--all measurement, in every domain, not just climate. The comment by EliRabett highlights the presence of noise in the ocean temperature data. See also the comments by Albatross and me.
  5. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Assume Eli accepts Roger and Humanity's (see comment 1) argument. What happened between 2000 and 2004 when the ocean temperature jumped about 5 x 10^22 J, which is an absolutely crazy amount, esp given that every other measure (surface T, MSU, etc) was pretty well behaved? Either there is something rotten with the measurements, or weird stuff is happening in Captn Neptune's locker. Cocked hat, Pielke's argument meet.
  6. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    63.Albatross You're search for truth might be admirable but is going to be thwarted by the imperfect state of climate science. That is if your willing to be as honest about other data sets as you are about this one. Rather than mince words please state clearly exactly what Dr Pielke has said about OHC that is untrue? Actually don't, that's taking us nowhere. Dr pielke has given reasons behind why he has made his statements. Pick apart that reasoning rather than repeatly calling into question his integrity?
  7. How we know the sun isn't causing global warming
    I just realized that my estimated range of solar forcing at 0.1 to 0.35 W m-2 is very close to the IPCC range. That's pretty cool, and a bit of a relief since I didn't think to check it after doing the calculation.
  8. What do you get when you put a climate scientist and 52 skeptics in a room?
    They should have a program like this every week , but just focus on one maybe two questions . That way you can go into more detail and clear up any points that are unclear . I also thought that their questions can be answered by a quick searh of the web and a little bit of reading , I thought that most where not really convinced by Mr Schneiders replys even thou they where good and clear to me . A half hour program called Climate Question of The Week would be good you might need a denier on as well for balance but . Oh would also love to see Monckton front 52 climate experts and answer random questions lol .
  9. Roger A Pielke Sr at 13:26 PM on 9 September 2010
    Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Albatros - With respect to your comment #52 the statements "This means that global warming halted on this time period" and "this clearly shows the lack of substantial warming since 2004" are equivalent. We are going in circles on this discussion. There is sufficient text here for readers to make up their own minds on the main issues of i) whether the global annual average upper ocean heat content should be adopted as the primary metric of global warming, ii) what is the observational accuracy of this data, and iii) if the data are sufficiently accurate, how does the accumulation of heat in Joules compare with the models since 2004 when the data became sufficiently robust for this purpose.
  10. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    I had always understanded why a long trend is needed when it comes to atmospheric temperatures by the fact that there was a ocean lag, ie because the ocean where a huge heat sink and therefore takes more time to heat than atmosphere. But can someone explain to me why we also need a long trend with regard to OHC, since oceans are the slowest to heat in the climate system? Thanks
  11. Roger A Pielke Sr at 13:19 PM on 9 September 2010
    Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Albatross - I did not sign the Cato petition in 2008. I commented on aspects of the letter in my post http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/03/31/open-letter-by-the-cato-institute-on-climate-science/. With respect to the statement from the petition (which I did not write nor completely agree with as written - there is clear evidence of surface temperature increases in the 20th century, for example, although it was not a steady increase] "Surface temperature changes over the past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global warming for over a decade now", I wrote with respect to the last decade "This is correct using the global average surface temperature. An effective analysis of this issue has been presented at the weblog http://rankexploits.com/musings/category/climate-sensitivity/. However, using the global average upper ocean heat content changes, the warming in the 1990s and early 2000s ended in 2003, so the more rigorous metric for global warming indicated “no net global warming” for 6 years." Since March 2009 when that post was written we have entered an El Nino period. I anticipate there has been warming in the upper ocean since this event started, but await the quantification of its magnitude. It is the ocean heat content that we should be using to assess global warming, however, not the global average surface temperature trend.
  12. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Sigh, a really big sigh. HR, we here have all seen those NODC 0-700 m OHC data. What you show is for the last 10 yrs. I'm not sure what you point is. NODC, for some some yet unspecified reason, recently adjusted the latter part of the graph downwards (much to Tisdale and Watts et al's delight). I am curious why the data were adjusted (and for obvious reasons I would have been just as curious were it made in the opposite direction). In contrast the data by Lyman et al. (2010), Fig 1. in Trenberth's nature article (see his blue trace), and von Shuckmann's graphic all show a slight increase in the latter half of that record (which is in question). So who to believe? And which depth to use? Well, it seems like 0-2000 m might be more reasonable given the mixing depths observed in parts of the ocean. Anyhow, given those questions, and the short period of time (2004 onwards quoted by Pielke), given the uncertainties of the Argo data and the noise-- Pielke should not be making bold claims such as he has on the fate of global warming. This is not an inquisition HR, it is the pursuit of truth and about being honest. As Prof. Dennett has said "The magisterium of science is factual truth on all matters" IMHO, Pielke Snr has not lived up to this magisterium by making misleading statements on OHC, sea-level rise and Arctic sea ice, and publicly supporting misleading statements made on the global SAT record. And we scientists have every right (and responsibility) to take him to task for that. The fact that you are defending him making the misleading statement in question only goes to discredit you too.
  13. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    The graph should say 10 22 Joules not 10 18 joules.
  14. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    60.Albatross From your viewpoint this is more an inquisition than a scientific debate? Acknowledge the truth then we can move on? ............................................................................................................... Just to prove I'm not shy about totally contradicting myself I decided to graph the recent NODC OHC (data from here) (bigger image) As some have pointed out, but few have acknowledged, a near global measure of OHC only came into existence in 2003/2004 (as Dr Pielke's pointed out in #35). There is therefore good reason to take an analysis from that point, it's short but not cherrypicked. The NODC data shows that from mid 2003 until the 1st 3 months of 2010 the trend has been flat (actually a slight downward trend but I'll be generous). So just to correct all those (including Dr Pielke) who are fixed on a 4 year trend it does appear to be closer to 7 years. To put that in perspective that's close to the length of the GRACE Greenland ice data. It's a short term trend but a long time for heat to go missing. I've got a question. The NODC OHC has wobbled around 11-12 for 6+ years. Where should it be in mid 2010 assuming AGW is correct and we're measuring everything? I'm just curious about the magnitude of the missing heat.
  15. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    wuwt - well known authoritive source of data. :-) I hope they have you detail to go back to the original source.
  16. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    cruzn246 - warmer in Canada does NOT mean warmer worldwide. Nonetheless, it may have been warmer say 3000BC than now from other lines of evidence. However, the important question is what forcing? Must likely it was solar but its not solar today.
  17. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Re: adrian smits (19) Ask yourself this: Do I trust a graph from a blog citing a source, or do I double-check the graph on the blog versus what the source itself shows? In this case, I pointed you to the NOAA source. If what's on display at WUWT is different from what NOAA (the source) shows, why do you think that would be? You have an inquiring mind, else you would not be here. You'll figure it out. For your second question, if by general humidity you mean relative humidity:
    "Humidity is the amount of water vapor present in the air and the relative humidity is the measure of the amount of water vapor present in the air compared to the amount needed for saturation."
    while Specific Humidity is
    "the mass of water vapour in a sample of moist air divided by the mass of the sample."
    When the temperature of air is cooled or reduced the relative humidity (RH) increases. The moisture content of the air remains the same until the RH rises to the point of 100% saturation and condensation occurs (source here). NOAA tracks Specific Humidity Hope that's more clear than mud :) The Yooper
  18. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Thats why I asked the question.I've found graphs at wuwt from NOAA that show a downward trend and I've also seen the graph you talked about Daniel so whats up with that? Is there a difference between general humidity and specific humidity? Specific humidity is the first time i've seen that term used.
  19. How we know the sun isn't causing global warming
    Good responses by Matt and Alden. I'll just add that despite the 'low' level of understanding, the IPCC also assigned a possible solar radiative forcing range of 0.06 to 0.30 Watts per square meter. In other words, at most the solar radiative forcing is one-fifth as large as the forcing from CO2 alone. As the other commenters noted, although we don't have a great understanding as to every way the Sun influences the global climate, if solar activity isn't increasing, it's not causing global warming.
  20. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Ned, there was stuff growing up in Canada that usually grows well south back then. Of course it was much warmer worldwide then.
  21. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Adrian - I think you are getting confused over data sets. All the data sets that I have seen (eg see chpt3 of IPCC WG1, AR4), should water vapour going up. Look for specific humidity or precipitable water. Perhaps you could provide a link to the data set from NOAA that you think contradicts this?
  22. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    HR @58, You have it backwards, Pielke is the one obsessed with short term trends; Pielke Snr: “Global warming, as diagnosed by upper ocean heat content has not been occurring since 2004” Saying that is NOT constructive. He has made similar statements concerning sea level and Arctic sea ice. As for your other observations on OHC, none of these are novel, nor are they unique to Pielke. Scientists working in this field have been asking similar questions. Trenberth certainly sees the "bigger picture". I and others will be more than happy to let this go once Pielke concedes that he made a mistake....you know just like Josh Willis recognized that the Argo data had issues...
  23. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Re: NETDR (57)
    "Did anyone post that the Atmosphere was cooling at the same time that the oceans were cooling according to both the GISS and UAH satellite temperature readings. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2005/to:2009/plot/uah/from:2005/to:2009/trend"
    No, because that would be a serious CHERRY PICK, something only a rhymes-with-menialist would do. Real skeptics and those with scientific integrity know that in climate science you generally need 30 years of data for a statistically significant trend to arise from the background noise. 5 years of data doth not a trend constitute. The Yooper
  24. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Re: adrian smits (14) Unsure where you're getting that downward trend in humidity claim from. This from NOAA contradicts that claim. Re: adrian smits (15) See above. And then see this for a better grounding in CO2's role in the greenhouse effect. Unless skeptics come up with a physics-based alternative to the well-understood physics of greenhouse gases, CO2 rules and water vapor, while important, is a bit player (I restrained myself with great effort from using "drools" vice the "great effort" bit I actually went with - pity). See also Richard Alley's talk: CO2 is the biggest control knob. The Yooper
  25. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    #1 Moderator Response Graham Much of your article is about data quality. The long Trenberth quote is essentially an attack on the ARGO data quality. You even state "Now call me picky if you like, but if there’s a lot of discussion about the accuracy of the data, the methods of analysing it, and what it all means, then surely it would be more prudent to make clear the uncertainty". Is this questioning the data quality? I'm not moving the debate anywhere, I'm directly responding to what you say. You want to focus on the 2004-2009 period, I see that, but that particular argument interests me less than Dr Pielke's main argument which is can an accurate OHC data set tell us more about the climate. I'm interested in whether as Dr Pielke's states this metric is more definitive than say atmospheric temperature in accessing global warming. whether OHC can, without lag or much temporal variability, give us relatively quick answers on the build up of energy in the system and radiative forcing. and also whether the measuring system is robust enough. These are constructive comments on the part of Dr Pielke's, absolutely is the spirit of discovery rather than mythbuilding. You should try taking him at face value and move on from the short term trends to look at the bigger picture. 30.J Bowers My eyes see what your eyes see. What I also know is that a near global measure of OHC only came into being with the advent of ARGO and it's expansion around 2003/2004. Other ocean metrics are pointing to the fact that the SH and NH waters and different ocean basins don't seem to act in tandem. I'm prepared to look at data quality and long term trends with these in mind. This page from the ARGO website should give you an insight into what I'm talking about http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/Novel_argo.html
  26. How we know the sun isn't causing global warming
    omnologos - Although this is the advanced version, the influence of the sun on recent global warming is actually pretty straightforward: there is NO trend over the last 30 years in any of the known solar factors that might influence climate. Whether we're talking about total solar irradiance (the most direct), solar open flux and cosmic rays (different from UV), sunspots, or cycle length, there's simply no trend, whereas temperatures have shot up rather substantially and anomalously in such a short period. Temperature doesn't just change by itself - it has to be forced. There's still a lot to learn about how the solar influence is amplified by various feedbacks, although the response due to the solar cycle gives us some bounds to work with. Galactic cosmic rays are interesting to consider, but we know relatively little about their influence (especially compared to the vast amount of knowledge regarding greenhouse gas forcing). But again, our understanding of the details is pretty much trumped by the fact that nothing about the sun has changed during the most recent period of global warming. Lockwood and Frohlich (2007) sum it pretty well: "Our results show that the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified." In other words, this isn't about our "low level of scientific understanding", it's just that the sun has to do something if we are to attribute recent warming to it. It hasn't. -Alden
  27. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    If the actual humidity in our atmosphere has gone down in real terms measured by radiosones and satilites by NOAA the discution about climate feedbacks of co2 being positive is over.You have to have higher humidity to trap more heat.Am I wrong....anyone?
  28. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    I'm still puzzled by one group of scientists saying humidity in the atmosphere of our planet has trended down since 1958 and another group that says it has gone up with the rise in temperature.The downward trend was measured by NOAA.Am I missing something here....anyone?
  29. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Did anyone post that the Atmosphere was cooling at the same time that the oceans were cooling according to both the GISS and UAH satellite temperature readings. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2005/to:2009/plot/uah/from:2005/to:2009/trend So the heat isn't in the oceans and it isn't in the atmosphere, where did it go ? To the Lithosphere ? I doubt it. I agree with Dr Pielke that the heat cannot leave the system and return. It could go from atmosphere to ocean and back but it cannot leave if Global warming is happening. In fact since the atmosphere warming is so slight since 1995 the claim has been made that the positive feedback heat is somehow hiding in the oceans to cause rapid warming in the future. BTW: I object to the term "deniers" with it's obvious connotations without specifying exactly what is being denied. I do not deny it has warmed slightly. [for example]I do deny there is a catastrophe coming in the next 100 years.
  30. How we know the sun isn't causing global warming
    I love Pierrhumbert's concluding description! "Coffin with so many nails in it...". But the truly amazing thing about it is that so few realize that it already has all these nails. Perhaps the basic version will do something about that. And yes, 'omnologos' should change his moniker to 'amnologos', since yes, he really is missing a lot in the post. Just as the concluding description says: there are so many nails in it is is hard to know where to put a new one. Yet 'omnologos' missed them all, to come up with thei red herring about uncertainty concerning solar radiation.
  31. How we know the sun isn't causing global warming
    Unless I am misreading the above, this blog entry is of rather poor quality. For example, there is the glaring omission of "The Sun and the Earth’s Climate" by Joanna D. Haigh: Joanna D. Haigh, "The Sun and the Earth's Climate", Living Rev. Solar Phys. 4, (2007), 2. URL (cited on Sep 8, 2010): http://www.livingreviews.org/lrsp-2007-2 Dr Haig is well known in the field, and references to her work appear at least four times in AR4-WG1-Chapter2. Her last sentence? "Perhaps when these questions are answered we will be confident that we really understand how changes in the Sun affect the climate on Earth". Furthermore, and notably, AR4 classifies the “level of scientific understanding” for Solar Irradiance is “Low”, and for the component linked to cosmic UV rays as “Very low”. It then proceeds to mark the solar forcing estimate as "moderately confident". All these nuances appear nowhere in dana1981's text. Given also that in the first section of the blog entry above there is no mention of scientific articles published after the publication of AR4, its conclusions appear to be unwarranted.
  32. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Tom #54 And of course you can demonstrate the degree of uncertainty of the ocean heat measurement statistically by using resampling statistics and/or central limit theory. It's around this point that many people with engineering backgrounds whose education does not prepare them well for assessing uncertainty start to get the heebeejeebies, which is one reason why we see so many so called sceptics with mining or other engineering backgrounds.
  33. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Dr. Pielke: "Moreover, if global annual average cooling occurs, such as from a major volcanic eruption, the global warming "clock" is reset regardless of the long term trend." I suspect I'm not the only person who'd appreciate an elaboration of that remark. Are you speaking of surface temperature? Does that mean if we're confronted w/a record of many years and showing a 5:1 proportion of years with increases versus decreases in temperature we can conclude nothing about a trend in temperature? Each year with a downturn means we start fresh, as though we had no data?
  34. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Roger Pielke Sr wrote "There does not need to be years of record to obtain statistically significant measures of upper ocean heat content. This is the point of using heat. We just need time slices with sufficient spatial data. A trend is unnecessary." That's an, um, well, extraordinary statement. Because it is amazingly wrong. What is of interest is the "population" of upper ocean heat content--the "true" heat content of the upper ocean in an entire year. Each measurement by each buoy or other device is merely a sample from that population. Even the mean of all those samples has less than a 100% chance of being identical to the population's value. Increasing the spatial sampling reduces but does not eliminate the uncertainty about the spatial population, and does nothing to improve the sampling of the populations of time and other conditions. Each of two years' sample means has less than a 100% chance of being identical to its year's population value. The difference between two years' sample means has less than a 100% chance of being identical to the difference between those two population means. The difference between two years' means is a "trend," so Pielke's statement that "a trend is unnecessary" is nonsensical. How do we estimate the probability of that two-year sample difference being representative of the populations' differences? We use inferential statistical methods that Pielke says are unnecessary. Given the sparsity of our sampling of the entire freakin' ocean, we also need to increase the sampling across time, by looking at the sample trend across more than just a few years.
  35. Is Arctic Sea Ice 'Just Fine'?
    chriscanaris: Re: Do we have proxies for ice sheet extent predating this period [1870]? There are multiple ways to look for arctic climate information besides the satellite record for arctic ice and thermometer readings. Try these: There are multiple peer reviewed papers that use Canadian lake sediment cores that have temperature indicators going back 200,000 years (that is longer than the Greenland ice cores). These are particularly instructive as they indicate a cooling trend for year 1 up until 1950 (which is what you would expect due to orbit inclination) after which there is a warming trend (even though orbit inclination would generate continued cooling). Just google "canada arctic lake sediment temperature" and check out what pops up. These are good because they are based on multiple locations by multiple scientists The cores also include temperature information related to LIA and MWP if this interests you. One look at the satellite photos of the islands of the Canadian archipelago will tell you why there are no tree ring studies - no trees. There are also some arctic ocean sediment cores. Just google "arctic ocean sediment cores" and see what you find. Another indicator is studies of decreasing ice volume of the ice caps in the Canadian archipelago, such as the Devon Ice Cap. Try google "canadian archipelago ice cap shrinking" or check out the canadian ice caps one by one. Also google "ellesmere island ice shelf" and take a look before they all disappear. This one is pretty scary, so if you would rather believe that nothing is happening, don't look at this topic. Check out the estimates of how long the ice shelves have been around before they broke off - hint several thousand years. The ice cores from Greenland have temperature information and these include LIA and MWP information. I would not get too hung up on LIA and MWP as these can be caused by factors that are not relevant to the current situation. The key is to determine what caused these fluctuations (it wasn't magic, must be physics). Check out the limited explanations and lack of support for the explanations offered for these events and ask yourself if they have proved what caused these events or have they merely offered up a logical explanation based on a single factor. Also ask what it is about these periods that are relevant to the current situation. To be relevant, you would need to show precisely what caused the original event and whether similar conditions are operating today. The mere existence of these prior events proves nothing. Yes there is natural variability, so what does that prove?
  36. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Dr. Pielke, I have just re-read what you wrote earlier: "There does not need to be years of record to obtain statistically significant measures of upper ocean heat content. This is the point of using heat. We just need time slices with sufficient spatial data. A trend is unnecessary, and indeed can be misleading when the signal is substantially nonlinear." I think we need to be very clear, you made a statement concerning the change of OHC as a function of time or over a (very short) time interval, but time nonetheless. What you say above is true for a given point in time, but you are categorically saying that based on those few data points that global warming has "halted". I fail to see how the problems with that statement continue to elude you. Just like any other metric OHC is quite a noisy signal, displaying marked inter-annual variability, and is no different than the global SAT record in that regard. If one wishes to determine whether or not the there is a sustained and statistically significant signal in a noisy dataset then one requires a large number of data points. We are not talking about extrapolating beyond the training data for the OLS model fit to the data here. Yes, of course, that can be misleading, but anyone who knows their stats knows not to apply the regression beyond the limits/range of the training data. Also, note that between 2003 and 2008 the OLS model clearly fits von Shuckmann's data very well.... If there are any statisticians reading this please feel free to chime in.
  37. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Whoops, this is the climate sensitivity article. In which case I suggest that eric re-read it.
  38. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    On that note from scaddenp, I refer eric to my climate sensitivity article.
  39. What do you get when you put a climate scientist and 52 skeptics in a room?
    I thought that the woman who said that she was convinced by the bathtub analogy was really saying (subtly) that she thought that Schneider was clearly the more reasonable one in the exchange with the GP who was aggressively accusing him of avoiding the question. In other words, the GP did not make his own side look good with his rudeness. By remaining calm under such provocation, Schneider looked a lot better and that impressed her. (I could be wrong).
  40. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Dr. Pielke, As for your beliefs on statistically significant trends in data, I think statisticians would err on my and others' understanding. You had better inform Lyman, von Shuckmann, Trenberth, and others to remove those trend lines then. As for your questions and references to GISS (yes, the traces over a short time window diverge, got it), this is not a test, and it is clearl that you are trying to move the goal posts and detract from the main issue here-- you making misleading statement in public on OHC (and sea level and Arctic ice, and SAT if you still support the CATO letter). Interesting, you are now saying @ 48 that: "this clearly shows the lack of substantial warming since 2004" That is most definitely not the same as saying: "This means that global warming halted on this time period." I can support the former statement made @48, not the latter for the reasons that I and other shave discussed ad nauseum. If you now believe the former is correct, please correct the record both on your blog and at WUWT, with the caveat that it is a short time interval and does not preclude an acceleration in warming in the future. Thank you.
  41. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Dr. Pielke, I did not paraphrase, I used quotation marks to cite verbatim what you stated in the paper. You support hypothesis 2a. On a related note, since you brought up the EOS paper, did you not openly support this petition from CATO? http://www.cato.org/special/climatechange/cato_climate.pdf Well, at least that is what your friend Anthony Watts claims here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/31/dr-roger-pielke-senior-support-for-cato-letter-and-advertisement/ In the petition they state: "Surface temperature changes over the past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global warming for over a decade now." That was in November 2008. Do you still support that assertion?
  42. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    I am a layman and claim absolutely no scientific expertise in these matters. That being said, I have to say that this thread of discussion has been almost enjoyable from the standpoint that there seems to be some actual 'dialogue' happening amongst some of the brightest and most respected scientists on this matter. Keeping it respectful is truly helpful. More importantly, in my opinion, is the fact that different views are being expressed and bantered about. This is what I feel is missing in the entire discussion around global warming and the many aspects of it. I feel that I must add a bit of "advice" to Dr. Pielke about the use of quotes attributed to him (whether intended or not on his part); most of which appear to be directly quoted. I honor your knowledge and your expertise greatly and I truly believe you have the best intentions in your comments. However, when other people of substantially less reputable nature and with extreme ideas and purposes take your comments and use them falsely, I feel it is then your responsibility to publicly critique and deny the usage of your comments. This I feel you have not done and I have no way of knowing why. This does not mean that you deserve to be treated disrespectfully. But as my father used to say, when you lay with pigs you surely will get dirty. I feel you should avoid your association with certain extreme anti-global warming skeptics and fanatics and publicly claim that global warming is occuring and that you many other respected scientists are working on answers to the cause and any possible solutions. Until then, if I were you, I would be prepared to suffer some name calling and grow a much thicker layer of skin. With all due respect....
  43. Roger A Pielke Sr at 08:00 AM on 9 September 2010
    Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Albatross - you write "You choose your hypothesis 2a which down plays the relative (is that better?) contribution/importance of long-lived GHGs on the climate system." We did not downplay anything. Your paraphrasing misstates what we wrote in our paper. We are elevating the other human climate forcings. In terms of CO2, we do not even need to discuss global warming to be concerned by uncontrolled increases in its atmospheric concentration. We see directly from observations of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that humans are increasing its levels. If global warming were not occurring at all, we should still be concerned.
  44. Roger A Pielke Sr at 07:54 AM on 9 September 2010
    Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Albatross - There does not need to be years of record to obtain statistically significant measures of upper ocean heat content. This is the point of using heat. We just need time slices with sufficient spatial data. A trend is unnecessary, and indeed can be misleading when the signal is substantially nonlinear. Moreover, if global annual average cooling occurs, such as from a major volcanic eruption, the global warming "clock" is reset regardless of the long term trend. With respect to the Lyman 2010 data presented in the orginal post on this weblog, this clearly shows the lack of substantial warming since 2004. The Von Schuckmann figure also shows small warming since 2004 which is when the Argo data became sufficient to provide a good estimate of the heat content (that is why Willis provided me data starting in 2004). Lets accept the Von Schuckmann data since 2004. What do you obtain as the heating rate in Watts per meter squared and how does this compare with the GISS predictions? What do you expect will be the magnitude of warming in the upper ocean in Joules through mid-2010 when the data is updated this Fall?
  45. What do you get when you put a climate scientist and 52 skeptics in a room?
    Brilliant performance by Schneider.
  46. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Well eric, firstly I dont think you can have some local perturbations somehow messing an average. And would support that by noting the determinations of sensitivity from GCMs match rather well with estimates of sensitivity from empirical techniques such eruption response and LGM data.
  47. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    KL @ 14 - "I must admit that I was unimpressed by the story of the Willis 'Eureka' moment. Well, whatever your reaction may have been, I was intrigued by Willis & Lyman's ocean cooling paper, especially considering Willis' earlier work with Takmeng Wong. I particularly liked the quote “We let Josh know, diplomatically of course, that all signs were pointing toward his data,” says Wong. Kl @ - "Argo is not anywhere near a complete story for measuring OHC" Good to see you finally acknowledging that. No need to repeat that sorry saga with the MSU satellite data all over again. Kl @ - "but I would expect a helluva lot better than what preceded it (XBT etc). See my next post." Indeed, once all the teething problems are sorted out.
  48. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Re @44, Some good points. But in some cases the exact wording is critical, and it is not just a case of being pedantic. In a problem this importance one has to be very careful. And "skeptics" and those in denial about AGW have seized on Dr. Pielke's ill-thought out wording. That aside, the question of the amount of data required to obtain statistically sig. trends is unavoidable. I agree with what Riccardo said above @42. There are parts of the ocean (e.g., Labrador sea) where it is known that mixing occurs down to depths exceeding 2000 m. Trenberth wrote a piece in Nature in 2010 on this very OHC issue: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/NatureNV10.pdf Please read it. If anyone on this planet wants to solve this riddle it is Trenberth. His track record on climate science is impeccable. So let us please not question his contributions to advancing climate science. If anything, IMHO, Dr. Pielke is distracting people (and scientists) from the pertinent issues by not choosing his words carefully and by making misleading comments. Scientists are well aware of the issues surrounding OHC and are working hard on it, regardless of what Pikele Snr may opine on the issue.
  49. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Albatros, agreed on "halted" and I too have problems with the statistical validity of the claim, hence Riddle Me This where Tamino argues to look at the whole dataset and delta sigma bandwidth before reading too much in small jiggles in the measurements. I went the same way as you to find the post, also without luck. I did a search and found an abstract showing deep convection (2000m) in the Mediterranean (of all places). This shows me that deep convection is probably happening in other places as well and possibly even deeper too, but perhaps not enough to account for the missing heat as Dr Pielke stated, I don't know. Anyway, I'd like to read more about it, so I would really appreciate a link to the paper showing how much vertical heat flux is moving down the column to below the Argos measuring range. I found a reference to J. K. Willis, D. P. Chambers, R. S. Nerem 2008, but that's about sea level rise afaik (and behind a paywall)...
  50. actually thoughtful at 06:32 AM on 9 September 2010
    Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    I don't perceive this is as an argument over science, as much as an argument over presentation. For example: (all positions paraphrased_ Dr. Pielke Sr.: For a 4 year period the body that holds 90% of the earth's heat showed no notable increase in heat; we can therefore assume no notable global warming occurred during that period GPWayne: We can say nothing about long term climate trends from a 4 year period of data (questionable data at that). These two statements are NOT at odds with each other. That neither said it the "Mother may I" format the other desired does not change the fact that there is little-to-no real disagreement between the two positions. I personally find Dr. Pielke's voice very helpful (and I would even say useful) - you can point out to a so-called skeptic - this is what real skepticism looks like - you use the actual data and you draw conclusions. Whether there ought be climate papers written and published about a 4 year period of time is a question for the editors of those journals - those same editors whom most on this site laud as keepers of intellectual purity in most cases. Finally - we know that GHG and other forcings are a trend, not a monolithic march up and to the right on a given graph. So why can't it be true that for 4 years natural variability swamped the trend? At the level of intuition/common sense (and as someone who studies heat moving through water on a daily basis - but not a climate or oceanographic expert) - it is REALLY hard to imagine heat moving downwards in a body of water unless it is VERY well mixed. Are there any smaller bodies of water which are well studied in regards to vertical heat movement (ie ponds, lakes, etc.) OK - my REAL final point - Trenberth has noted the travesty and Pielke Sr is publishing papers - which do you think will motivate a faster drive for better OHC data? People on both sides of the debate should thank Dr. Pielke Sr for keeping attention focused on ~90% of the heat sink of the planet.

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