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Comments 111201 to 111250:

  1. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    Dappledwater #44 at 23:28 PM on 31 August, 2010 Ken, that set of posts was entertaining. And yet here you are still banging on the same old drum. Its an old drum for someone still in short pants - but one you seem to have trouble answering with anything other that a tweet tweet perhaps. I notice that no-one was prepared to take on BP's point about the flattening of Jason's record of SLR. Nor has anyone produced an effective answer to the serious inconsistency of flattening SLR with rising warming imbalance. Even if the warming imbalance stopped rising and stayed at the claimed 0.9W/sq.m, there would be a linearly rising energy addition to the Earth system, most of which has to be stored in the oceans.
  2. Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 22:01 PM on 1 September 2010
    The empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming
    Czy korale, gąbki , mówią prawdę o byłych stężenie CO2 Opublikowanym niedawno artykule : 13C efekt Suess w scleractinian korale lustro zmian w inwentaryzacji antropogenicznych emisji CO2 z powierzchni oceanów , et Swart al. 2010 W zawiera na poniższym rysunku. . Oczywiście, dane te są identyczne z rdzeni lodowych - pokazują one, praktycznie stał się stały wzrost CO2 w XX wieku , zwłaszcza . Autorzy piszą: " Z tych zapisów, 64% wykazuje istotne statystycznie (p < 0,05) spadek D13c do dnia dzisiejszego (23 z 37). Spadek ten wynika z dodatkiem CO2 pochodzenia antropogeniczną ( 13C efekt Suess ) do atmosfery. [...]" Pozycji, jednak i takie zdania : " Niewielki wzrost stawki fotosyntezy, związane z wzrostem natężenia światła , wydaje się zwiększenie D13c szkieletu , natomiast zmniejsza się w świetle spowodowałaby spadek wartości D13c w szkielecie [ Weber, 1970] . Sugerowano, że różnice w D13c szkielet może być również związane ze zmianami tempa wzrostu , nasłonecznienie i inne czynniki wpływające na symbiotyczny związek między korali i ich zooxanthellae . Oprócz rocznej różnicy w D13c , zauważył kilku pracowników, którzy na długoterminowych tendencji w kierunku niższych wartości D13c w szkielety koralowców i przypisać te spadki do 13C Suess efekt [ Druffel i Benavides , 1986 ]. Pierwszy papier do tej obserwacji w szkieletów koralowców [ Nozaki et al. , 1978 ] stwierdził, zbliżenie 0,4 ‰ zmniejszenie D13c 1900 / 50 , o takiej samej wysokości, zostały zachowane w pierścieniach drzew [ Damon in. , 1978 ]. Mimo, że wnioski z Nozaki et al. [1978] , zostały podważone [ Weil et al. , 1981 ], długoterminowe zmniejszenie D13c korala szkielety są dobrze udokumentowane ... [ dostarcza informacji na temat źródeł ] Jeśli jednak tylko Weil i jego zespół patrz niezgodności : ziemi - ocean ? Korale : Konsekwencje korali wzrostu stawek, Juillet , Leclerc i Reynaud , 2009 : "To eksperyment , który pozwolił na wyodrębnienie efektów świetlnych i temperatury na rafy , wskazały na znaczące wpływy na światło zarówno szkieletowych _18O i _13C . wysoki rozrzut _18O między kolonii obserwowano w jednym miejscu, może wynikać z różnic w reakcji fotosyntezy glonów symbiotycznych zespołów . Odpowiedzi _13C może być również związane z różnych dystrybucji glonów w różnych częściach układu kostnego . "," Istnieje wiele skutków tych danych dla paleoklimatycznych rekonstrukcje z udziałem korali . "Mimo, że od wartości δ13C morskich węglanów dostarczyć cennych informacji na temat ostatnich zmian w obiegu węgla , w wyniku odpowiedzi na lądowych i biomasy nie może bezpośrednio wynika z tych wartości [ fizjologia , degradacji mikrobiologicznej i ] diagenezy skał. W celu uzyskania pełniejszego obrazu tych ostatnich zmian w obiegu węgla , naziemnych pochodzenia atmosferycznego wartości δ13CCO2 następnie potrzebne. " Patrz tutaj . Atmosferyczne δ 13 CO 2 i jego stosunku do p CO 2 i głęboko ocean δ 13 C w późnym plejstocenie, Köhler et al. , 2010 . " te , które występują w terminach krótszych niż tysiąclecia nie są wykrywalne w δ 13 CO 2 z powodu równowagi wymiany gazowej z powierzchni oceanu ... " chciałbym mieć (znowu) dodaje się do niezwykle aktywny CO2 - woda ... Poza tym, Swart et al. 2010 roku. nie obejmuje okresów wcześniejszych, i nie może być inaczej: klimatu i wody Antarktyki Średnio sprzęgło w późnym holocenie , Euler i Ninnemann 2010 roku. : " Poniżej przedstawiamy pierwszy subdecadally próbą rekonstrukcji zmienność w południowo-wschodniej upper-intermediate Pacyfiku od ca. AD 0-1300 pomocą otwornic [bez korali i gąbek ] izotopów tlenu i węgla rekordy . Nasze wyniki wykazały dużą różnorodność powierzchni oceanu zarówno właściwości fizycznych i dekadowej stulecie skale czasu na południowym wschodzie Pacyfiku aż 3 ° C lub więcej w ciągu zaledwie o 50 yr .
  3. The surprising result when you compare bad weather stations to good stations
    thank you @Dappledwater. So we are back to "Menne 2010". Good to know. And by the way (surprise, surprise!) this is from that paper's conclusions: "The reason why station exposure does not play an obvious role in temperature trends probably warrants further investigation" QED (yes, that's for your Latin craving)
  4. The surprising result when you compare bad weather stations to good stations
    I always thought that the word 'surprising' in the title was being used ironically, even sarcastically.
  5. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    "Today's comparatively warm climate has been the exception more than the rule during the last 500,000 years or more. If recent warm periods (or interglacials) are a guide, then we may soon slip into another glacial period. But Berger and Loutre argue in their Perspective that with or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun." (Berger 2002)(PDF)
  6. The surprising result when you compare bad weather stations to good stations
    Omnologos, more like: 1. "Good stations" show warming trend. Yup, tallies with observations of the natural world - 2. "Bad/poor stations" show even more warming trend. WTF?. That's surprising!. What a waste of all those junior woodchucks time (for them that is - helpful though in a blog science way) 3. Oh that's why 4. Insert latin phrase of one's choice here (learnt that from the Wizard of Oz). Reductio ad absurdum?,...........argumentum threadbearum?...........
  7. The surprising result when you compare bad weather stations to good stations
    omnologos, my initial post was removed so I'll just say that you have been GIVEN the information you say you are looking for... repeatedly. You have failed to address it. That makes me think... 'bad things' about you. If you really think you are having a reasoned conversation here you might want to try looking at the points people have raised and the further information in the links supplied and then either acknowledging that they dismantle your position or explaining why you think they do not.
  8. The surprising result when you compare bad weather stations to good stations
    omnologos #43: "This is about "skeptical science" after all, non kindergarten's." Troll or fool. I no longer care.
  9. The surprising result when you compare bad weather stations to good stations
    And yet it should have been simpler to get. Even Jim Meador gave a hint of this, by putting "surprising" in the title of the blog. Why? Because... 1. "Good stations" show a warming trend --> good evidence for a warming trend 2. "Bad stations" show a warming trend too --> "surprising result" The "surprising result" shows (a) that "good" or "bad" is not a relevant way of categorizing stations regarding warming trends, in other words the work done by surfacestations.org is irrelevant in that respect OR (b) that the warming trend is spurious. Tertium non datur. I really can't see what there is of anti-scientific in stating such an obvious truism. Au contraire...if people want to go for (a), they should justify it in a scientific way. Please do. And before anybody asks...of course (a) is more likely than (b) ("actually the good stations show more of a warming trend!"). But I am not interested in opinions about it, rather the science. This is about "skeptical science" after all, non kindergarten's.
  10. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    gallopingcamel writes: However, a return of the Laurentide ice sheet extending all the way to where New York City stands is much more to be feared. Only if you make it a practice to worry about things that are not going to happen until after you've been dead for tens of thousands of years [with no AGW] or hundreds of thousands of years [with AGW].
  11. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    gallopingcamel @ 9 Yes, replacing the climate cycles that crafted all life on earth with the most rapid rises in global temperature and ocean acidification ever seen, greater than during the PETM [IIRC] is to be celebrated, or perhaps not. We know that life managed to cope with past perturbations, but now we are in new territory. And while denialists often talk of 'adapting' and 'survival', they seem to have as much idea of the concept and mechanisms of evolution as they do of the climate.
  12. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    HR @ 57 - there's a very good reason that the rate of rise was small over the 4 year period analysed by Leuliette & Miller. It's something I pointed out @ 21 - ENSO. From the paper's conclusions: "Regional trends in sea level rise are driven primarily by local variations in steric sea level. During our study period the individual components of sea level experienced weak El Nin ˜o conditions in 2004–2005 and 2006–2007 and a moderate La Nin ˜a, which began developing in mid 2007. As a consequence, sea level rise (1.5–2.4mm/a)during the period is 33–50% slower than the rate reported in the 4AR." "Most of the sea level rise during 2004–2008 occurred in the Southern Hemisphere (3.1 mm/a) and the rate of sea level rise in the Northern Hemisphere (0.2 mm/a) was the lowest of any four-year period since regular altimetry observations began." Again this finding is in line with those of Merrifield 2009 - see comment @40. "In particular, the rate in sea level rise in the Indian ocean observed by altimetry was 4.7 mm/a and 7.4 mm/a from Envisat and Jason-1, respectively. Poor coverage of the Indian ocean prior to 2006 or other systematic errors may affect our analysis with SL steric, which shows a rise of only 2.4 mm/a over the basin." Yup, still issues to resolve.
  13. Carbon dioxide equivalents
    miekol, you need to read the following on this site : Climate's changed before It's not bad CO2 was higher in the past Animals and plants can adapt to Global Warming CO2 was higher in the Late Ordovician
  14. Medieval Warm Period: rhetoric vs science
    Regarding the MWP, a reconstruction from borehole temperatures [no treerings] is A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record - Huang, Pollack and Shen (2008) "The reconstructions show the temperatures of the mid-Holocene warm episode some 1–2 K above the reference level, the maximum of the MWP at or slightly below the reference level, the minimum of the LIA about 1 K below the reference level, and end-of-20th century temperatures about 0.5 K above the reference level. [1961-1990 mean of the instrumental record]" Which it seems essentially would appear to confirm Moberg.
  15. Carbon dioxide equivalents
    Isn't it possible we are lucky we have induced global warming because otherwise we may have well been on the way into another ice age? Today the Earth warms up and cools down in 100,000- year cycles. Geologic history reveals similar cycles were operative during the Carboniferous Period. Warming episodes caused by the periodic favorable coincidence of solar maximums and the cyclic variations of Earth's orbit around the sun are responsible for our warm but temporary interglacial vacation from the Pleistocene Ice Age, a cold period in Earth's recent past which began about 2 million years ago and ended (at least temporarily) about 10,000 years ago. And just as our current world has warmed, and our atmosphere has increased in moisture and CO2 since the glaciers began retreating 18,000 years ago, so the Carboniferous Ice Age witnessed brief periods of warming and CO2-enrichment. Following the Carboniferous Period, the Permian Period and Triassic Period witnessed predominantly desert-like conditions, accompanied by one or more major periods of species extinctions. CO2 levels began to rise during this time because there was less erosion of the land and therefore reduced opportunity for chemical reaction of CO2 with freshly exposed minerals. Also, there was significantly less plant life growing in the proper swamplands to sequester CO2 through photosynthesis and rapid burial. It wasn't until Pangea began breaking up in the Jurassic Period that climates became moist once again. Carbon dioxide existed then at average concentrations of about 1200 ppm, but has since declined. Today, at 380 ppm our atmosphere is CO2-impoverished http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
    Response: Isn't it possible we are lucky we have induced global warming because otherwise we may have well been on the way into another ice age?

    Possible but unlikely. The current configuration of the Earth's orbit meant even without our CO2 emissions, we were most likely in for a long interglacial - the next ice age was tens of thousands of years away. The question is now moot - CO2 emissions have meant a planetary ice age is indefinitely off the table. The negative impacts of global warming over the next century impacting us, our children and grandchildren are of much more concern than a speculative ice age tens or thousands of years into the future.
  16. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    cruzn246 wrote : "The reason we are not heading down that road is simple. Sea levels are not high enough yet. If they reach the height needed to shut off the Gulf Stream and we are still in a relatively weak position to the sun we will go back into an Icing time. If the sea levels rise too slowly to catch that we may not have one." Do you know what height that would be and how fast levels would have to rise to initiate all that ? Also, how do you believe that fits in with the Milankovitch cycles ?
  17. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    I want to make a prediction – not about the climate, that’s old stuff. I want to make a prediction about climate deniers. 20 years from now they will still tell us that global warming isn’t happening, and at the same time that global warming IS happening and isn’t it wonderful ? And all natural and human disasters that happen in the meanwhile will be either completely ignored by them or attributed to completely other causes.
  18. Climate's changed before
    svettypoo at 11:57 AM on 1 September, 2010 Thanks. I am aware of the correspondance between Vezier and Royer, and there is a chain that goes beyond your reference. The temperature data from Royer 2009 is indeed from work in 2004, and Vezier acknowledges that to correct for pH (as Royer did) is valid. The Vezier T curve looks similar (as the d18O raw data will not be very different). However the CO2 data from Royer 2009 is very up to date (late 2009 corrections, please have a look at the references), most of the CO2 data you show (the output of model, GeoCarb) is not. We have proxy data from much recent work, and some of this is summarised in Royer 2009 and the later GeoCarbsulf(volc) model output). You should also read more widely on this, Pagani, Retallack, Zachos and Zeebe spring to mind, but then look at the recent references I linked above. On sea level, I will have to look at Schutter again, but there is the small matter of completely different continental configurations over this period...
  19. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    I know its not a scientific thing to say, but I love this site :-)
  20. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    Bern (#8), There may be plenty of problems arising out of sustained high global temperatures such as we had in past epochs when trees grew in Antarctica. However, a return of the Laurentide ice sheet extending all the way to where New York City stands is much more to be feared.
  21. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    doug_bostrom The paper you keep quoting LEULIETTE AND MILLER: CLOSING THE SEA LEVEL RISE BUDGET seems to have a SLR of 1.5mm/year (0.8mm steric and 0.8mm mass) for 2004-2007. This is the same as the long term 20th century average. This paper seems to refute the idea that an acceleration has occured.
  22. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    gallopingcamel: Yeah, but there are a few potential downsides to elevated temperatures. And as many others have pointed out many times before - it's possible, perhaps even probable, that Homo Sapiens will survive the worst global warming can throw at us. You may not be able to say the same of the civilisation that lets you sit in air-conditioned comfort typing your message on a PC...
  23. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    48.michael sweet I was less interested in the specifics of how the numbers are generated and more the way they are being used to tell a story. Ned's post does say 5.4mm/4.9mm "compares very well" with 3.3mm. More generally with regard to acceleration we are arguing over a change in SLR of ~1.5mm/year, I was just saying on Ned's basis 1.8mm "compares very well" with 3.3mm. "Pay attention to what you are comparing." I wasn't particularly comparing anything, I think Ned was doing that. I'm still curious why there is no evidence of an acceleration in SLR over the course of the 18 year satellite record? As seen in the two papers from Peter Hogarth's post #15. Am I wrong to expect an acceleration in that period?
  24. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    While this is an interesting post, it lacks the grand vision of earlier posts. Let us not forget the truly breath taking predictions of David Archer: http://www.skepticalscience.com/upcoming-ice-age-postponed-indefinitely.html Take a look at Figure 3. Ice Ages will be a "thing of the past" thanks to CO2. Personally I see that as something wonderful (if only it was likely). No more glacial cycles that have so stressed hominids during the last million years. As Eliza Doolittle would say "Would'nt it be loverly?"
  25. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    I have found this site very informative and helpful. Thanks for the explanation. One question: How does the rate of temperature increase between the glacial and interglacial periods compare to the current rate of increase and the predicted rate of increase for the next century? I ask because one of the things I (and millions of other people) am concerned about is the ability of ecosystems to adapt to the change. Thanks in advance.
    Response: The change in global temperature between ice ages and interglacials is approximately 5 to 6°C (the change in temperature is greater in Antarctica, less in the tropics). If we went along business as usual, we might achieve warming of this order:



    However, the issue is the speed of change. The change from glacial to interglacial occurs over thousands of years. We're effecting this change over a century or two. It's the speed of change that's the issue here - if temperatures change too quickly, ecosystems are unable to adapt quickly enough. We know this from past history - all the mass extinctions in the past were associated with periods of dramatic climate change.
  26. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    The reason we are not heading down that road is simple. Sea levels are not high enough yet. If they reach the height needed to shut off the Gulf Stream and we are still in a relatively weak position to the sun we will go back into an Icing time. If the sea levels rise too slowly to catch that we may not have one.
  27. Hockey stick is broken
    It is easy to see why M & W was not submitted to a climate journal. First question they'd be asked is why they used local proxies to correlate to global temperatures and then criticized those same proxies for not being predictive of global temperatures. If they had any sense they would of compared them to the LOCAL temperatures that the proxies actually respond to...
  28. It's not us
    I covered the stratosphere and other upper atmospheric layer cooling in the Advanced rebuttal, James.
  29. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    For many reasons, generally well-covered in the previous thread, I am skeptical about Berényi Péter's claim (that UHI explains 0.4-0.6°C of the observed 20th century warming). The evidence for it seems to be scant to nonexistent. But, for the sake of argument, let's grant it. Land, of course, occupies only 29% of the Earth's surface, so a UHI effect of 0.4 to 0.6 C/century on land would represent 0.12 to 0.17 C/century globally. For comparison, the current (satellite-era) trend is +1.6 C/century. So BP's (inflated, IMHO) estimates would still mean that UHI explains 10% or less of the observed trend. But it's worse than that. Over much of the 29% that is land, the population density is effectively zero -- think Antarctica, Greenland, the Sahara, the Gobi, vast expanses of Siberian peatlands, etc. Just by eyeballing maps of world population density, I'd guess that around half the land surface of the Earth is effectively uninhabited. That would suggest that, based on BP's own figures, UHI explains between 2-5% of the post-1970 warming trend globally.
  30. Climate's changed before
    Thanks for the post Peter. To say the least, Scotese chart shows the lack of correlation between low CO2 troughs and glaciation periods and CO2 crests inter-glaciation periods. It is meant to represent averages through different periods. The chart you found in Royer's 2009 paaper is actually from 2004. Its referenced right on the paper. So its not too long after Scotese. She doesn't show CO2 and Solar variation separately on the graph, just combined as radiative forcing. Also, on a side note, please see this response to Royer's temperature sensitivity assumptions. Detailed Response to Royer et al.’s letter “CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic Climate” Here is a more detailed (than Scotese) temperature reconstruction from Veizer, and CO2 reconstruction from Antarctic ice cores, Pagani and geocarb. Solar variation is left out to show CO2-temperature correlation only. I hope to post raw data for everyone when I find some time. And I'll try to respond to the other comments later tonight.
  31. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    JohnD @49 - "Can you elaborate as to the reasons why 0.3mm per year must be added to the Australian records and how this adjustment was arrived at as it appears very relevant to the discussion." The 1.2mm per year rate of rise from 1920 to 2000 around the Australian coastline, did not include the 0.3mm per year adjustment which is the GIA. This is detailed in Kurt Lambeck's 2002 paper here: Sea Level Change From Mid Holocene to Recent Time: An Australian Example with Global Implications The GIA explains why there is abundant geological evidence of the sea level around Australia being up to 3 meters higher than present, some 6000 - 7000 years ago, despite the sea level rising in that time.
  32. Hockey stick is broken
    TOP - where is the ad hominem in DC's article? Ie the attempt to discredit the argument by an attack on the persons of M&W, rather than on the argument that they present? DC helpfully makes it possible to check M&W version of history is correct or not, but the teeth of article deals with the technical argument.
  33. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    Anne-Marie: A small tip: When importing text from another editor into the Skeptical Science editor, links usually get reset to point at just the main Skeptical Science landing point. Check links you import via the preview before posting (I found I had to import them one at a time to create a post with links that worked as I had intended). Maybe the other contributors, who post much more frequently than I, can offer more sage advice. The Yooper
    Response: Actually, Anne-Marie did it all correctly - it was when I tried to move her rebuttal into the blog post that things went awry. All my fault! :-(
  34. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    A small nit: The title should either start with "How do ..." or omit the question mark. Also, following on to Tom_the_Bomb's comment, all the links point to the SkepticalScience homepage.
    Response: Egad, a whole swag of grammatical and HTML errors. All fixed, thanks to the first 3 commenters for pointing these out.
  35. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    Beautiful piece of work by The Yooper.
  36. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    You omitted 'years' at the end of the first sentence. Good explanation.
  37. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    Daniel - Thank you for a lovely commentary here. Fortunately, I had already started on my beer (a homebrew vanilla oak barrel stout) before reading it :)
  38. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    JohnD I don't expect you to overturn the results of several thousand publications by researchers armed with extensive training and experience specific to their field in a comment thread at a climate blog. The probability of such a revelation would be low even if you were trained in this topic but worse, you're not keeping in mind your own limitations. On another thread here at Skeptical Science it became apparent that you did not understand the difference between latent and sensible heat and thus were able to synthesize a hypothesis about atmospheric heat transport entirely divorced from reality. Oblivious to this perfectly innocent gap in your awareness, you were quite comfortable and confident using the fallacious product of your oversight to challenge the work of people who after all are far more knowledgeable than you or I. Concerning this topic, you're apparently still not aware of material thrust in front you showing how multiple data sources have been drawn together to narrow the confidence interval of global sea level measurements. Instead you are continuing to talk about scientists as though they're naively leaning on their favorite instrumentation without bothering to exploit available cross-checks wherever possible. Look, this is not a fair fight. It's not even a fight at all, it can't be because you don't have any weapons, not even the equivalent of bare fists. You're one person with a necessarily and perfectly ordinary and ok highly limited perspective, versus a small army of people entirely preoccupied with levels of arcana of which the both of us are quite ignorant. Unless you can articulate your disbelief of what's reported to us in a highly elaborated form, richly detailed and entirely circumspect, you're not making an argument, you're simply disagreeing. To drive understanding forward you need to take into account everything that's been published on the crux of your disbelief, comprehensively. The kind of argument you need to make is what you can look at in the form of scientific publications.
  39. How we know an ice age isn't just around the corner
    "(Petit 2000)" links straight back to the SkepticalScience homepage. Other than that, good explanation.
  40. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    I approached this thread with nervous trepidation, fearing at last that the true cause of global warming was to be finally unmasked. That those stalwart souls, laboring long into the night, would finally reach the pinnacle of their aims & finally discredit AGW... ...and to see them come SO close...and fail, yet again! Oh, my anguish, my anguish! Guess that means that yet another hope of avoiding what seems to be our fate is gone. I didn't think it would end this way. Oh, well. Time for a beer. Hey, something shiny... The Yooper
  41. Hockey stick is broken
    TOP if M&W choose to include a narrative of the political history of paleoclimate studies in what is advertised as a technical critique and improvement of statistics employed in proxy temperature reconstructions, it's not an ad hominem attack when readers are arrested by this unusual feature and begin to speculate on why the extra material is included. The authors themselves after all have chosen to include this distraction; presumably they wished to call attention to their paper in this way. They've succeeded. To wit, this example paragraph, which you apparently did not notice when reading the paper: Quotations like the above and graphs like those in Figures 1, 2, and 3 are featured prominently not only in official documents like the IPCC report but also in widely viewed television programs (BBC, September 14, 2008), in film (Gore, 2006), and in museum expositions (Rothstein, October 17, 2008), alarming both the populace and policy makers. Al Gore? Alarming? Really? Can you spot the statistics in that? I can't, but I do read what many would term as "dog whistle" political words. Now do you notice how the choice to include political fluff makes it more difficult to discuss their work? Why do I have to ask, because I made M&W mention Al Gore, or because M&W chose to write about Al Gore instead of statistics?
  42. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    Johnd; Looking at your 2007 IPCC quote it is already outdated. Sea level rise is now 3.3-3.5 mm/yr. If you want to be knowledgable in anything you need to know what experts think. Not reading what experts think to keep an open mind means you cannot have an informed discussion. The rest of us have to continually correct the mistakes you make because you have not done your homework. Think about whether or not you want to be informed and up to date.
  43. It's Urban Heat Island effect
    This page starts with the statement that "A paper by Ross McKitrick ... and Patrick Michaels ... concludes that half of the global warming trend from 1980 to 2002 is caused by Urban Heat Island." (McKitrick & Michaels). It then provides evidence for the contrary view. An obvious question is not addressed as far as I can see: are the arguments presented by McKitrick & Michaels wrong, and, if so, why?
  44. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    Berényi - I read through much of the thread you linked to, but I didn't see any published papers. Can you repost links to anything published on this logarithmic UHI effect? The only reference I saw was to something blogged by Spencer, and given his track record (!) I want something published and reviewed before I take this UHI issue seriously.
  45. Hockey stick is broken
    Regarding McShane and Wyner: Is being reviewed. We will wait with baited breath. I guess I missed the "political freight" when I read it today. DC seemed to be going for the ad hominem argument in that regard. I would have preferred that DC skip over the jibes at political incorrectness and spent that time delving into the paper itself. There was a lot going on in those 45 pages. McShane and Wyner take their own shot at the climatological world for being statistically challenged as well. Data is data after all and that is the world of statisticians. One of the conclusions: ...we conclude unequivocally that the evidence for a ”long-handled” hockey stick (where the shaft of the hockey stick extends to the year 1000 AD) is lacking in the data. In other words, there might have been other sharp run-ups in temperature, but the proxies show them. The hockey stick handle may be crooked, but the proxies can't show it one way or the other. Note that McShane and Wyner don't necessarily think the historical record is all wrong, but rather that the anomaly signal that the global warming crowd is using is not necessarily detectable the data.
  46. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    BP, I just went back and read a bunch of your posts that you linked above and I hope that you do not waste our time again as you did on the linked thread. As I said above, your stuff used to have some ideas that you could defend. This does not rise to your old standards. Please cite peer reviewed material or at least something that can be pretended to be accurate, not a blog post on WUWT.
  47. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    JohnD - nature doesnt have opinions. It is surely a central tenet of science that people will reach the same conclusion from the same data - because there is only one reality. You are saying that you agree that your opinions are illogical but having illogical opinions is fine because it is the debate that matters not whether we are in fact doing future generations a hell of a lot of damage?
  48. The surprising result when you compare bad weather stations to good stations
    It's not bad/good data. It's good/better data. Problem solved ...
  49. Sea level rise: the broader picture
    doug_bostrom at 06:47 AM, one of the obvious outcomes if everybody only references the same sources is that everybody will draw the same conclusions as generally most studies put together a compelling case that appears logical not only to the authors, but to the readers also. This is especially so for those whose mindset has been preconditioned by prior acceptance of the author's credibility, and so are likely to be readily accept what has been written rather than to look for flaws in the reasoning. Where would that leave the debate? A feel good round of good old boys exchanging pleasantries? The process of logic which drives the reasoning of most people is such that it makes it difficult, (impossible?), to accommodate anything outside the step by step process which logic itself is. Thus those concepts that track outside the logical path, lateral to it, are left to the those who can connect seemingly unconnected concepts which ultimately become logic themselves after they have connected all the dots, which must be a great relief for that majority of people who are unable to do it themselves. Just as in history, it has been left to a few to explore for new land for those who don't want to risk leaving the comfort of close existence, but once new settlement has been established the masses are more than happy to populate it to the extent that are quite willing to pile on and live on top of one another, feeding off the sense of community that ironically had only come about by those who sought to extend the lateral boundaries the masses so willingly imposed upon themselves, and then continue to do so again. I really don't like confining myself in such a way, either in the regions I have explored, or the concepts that others present. I pay little attention to an authors name, instead look for value in the alternative concepts being developed, without which a sense of balance cannot be developed. I compare this to peoples taste in music. Many people have their favourite artists and religiously buy all their works irrespective of how the quality waxes and wanes, all the time ignoring others who have yet to establish themselves. Thus it becomes that the early works of that artist becomes valuable items as those who woke up late try to obtain them from those who saw the potential first up. However there are also those whose reputation was built on that first big hit that resonated with the masses, but then proceeded to produce duds whilst the faithful continued to believe that the talent was real. That sort of reminds me of this quote, "For example, the IPCC (2001) wrote “no significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century has been detected”. In 2007 they said that “global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3-2.3] mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993-2003: about 3.1 [2.4-3.8] mm per year. Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear”. end of quote.
  50. Urban Heat Islands: serious problem or holiday destination for skeptics?
    "Are the lower troposphere and sea-surface temperature trends also affected by UHI? It seems improbable given the lack of pavement in the middle of the Pacific, not to mention at the 600 km altitude of Aqua/AMSU." What about space junk? And the international space station? (no, I'm not being serious, but neither is BP ...)

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