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wideEyedPupil at 23:11 PM on 1 May 2019Climate change could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions a year by 2090
@nigelj activist works as Greta says. changing the system is as important as actiing within the system, we need both, at the same time, in short order. All of the above when it comes to cliamte and even then who knows how bad it will get b/c of tipping points we may have already crossed, no cliamte scientist can be sure we havent. We just must do the best each of us can as limited humans in limited orgs and systems.
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wideEyedPupil at 23:08 PM on 1 May 2019Climate change could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions a year by 2090
sorry, was their any confirmation analysis that the USA as a political and economic enitity will exist in 2090? I agree this kind of analysis is overly conservative and fails to be cognisation of the inabililty to responded (even rich antions) when a nation gets hit by compounding catastrophic event i.e. health epidemic + crop failure/food scaricty + infrastructure collapse + population movement + hostilities/civil unrest/civil war + governece failure + new exrteme weather events on the back of all that.
There was an online futurecasting thing called "superstruct" IIRC many years ago at they had people look at extreme events in five or six seperate areas like health, farming/food, climate, population movments, war, resource scarity and even just a few combined could paralys many countries abililty to respond to new events. But when CC was put in the mix many professions in these fields and disaster responce were saying it was potentially catastrophic in major ways, serious break down of law and order, millions of deaths etc etc -
michael sweet at 22:32 PM on 1 May 2019Climate change could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions a year by 2090
Nigelj,
I think you are wrong that "the only realistic way of mitigating climate change is probably to "throw money at the problem".
Many of the power plants in the USA are old and nearing the end of their lifetime. New ones need to be built to replace tehm. We have the choice: build new fossil plants or we can build renewable plants to replace them.
Many researchers have shown that it is cheaper to build out renewable energy than to build out fossil fuels. Our chice is to build out fossil plants and line the pockets of current oligarths like Rex Tillerson or build out renewable energy and all be much healthier since air pollution will be so much lower.
Sometime in the future the fracking industry will go belly up and gas prices will skyrocket. If we build out renewable energy it is already cheaper. In the future fossil energy can only go up in price as less remains in the ground. A significant part of coal's problem is that they have mined all the easy to mine coal and remaining coal is more expensive to mine. Mines in the American west and Australia are lower grade coal which is more expensive to mine for the same amount of energy.
Argue "Save money, build renewable energy" not "throw money at the problem".
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Mentor at 22:29 PM on 1 May 2019Climate change could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions a year by 2090
If climate change will cost the US only hundreds of billions US$ by 2090, this is peanuts and nothing will be done. It must cost hundreds of trillions, only then something will be done probably.
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nigelj at 17:27 PM on 1 May 2019Rebellious Times
OPOF @ 8 neoliberalism is probably a preferable term to pointing at conservatives, but is still not ideal because it means different things to different people. It loosely includes deregulation, privatisation and free trade etc. I think neoliberalism gives the private sector excessive power but we should not go back to protectionist trade.
What we really have to do is articulate an alternative system. Countries like Finland and Norway have quite good socio economic systems, although its hard to sum it up briefly. Most problems have been solved somewhere in the world. It's no coincidence that Scandinavia are doing ok on climate change mitigation.
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nigelj at 16:54 PM on 1 May 2019Climate change could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions a year by 2090
So in conclusion, therefore the only realistic way of mitigating climate change is probably to "throw money at the problem". The problem is fossil fuels, and realistic alternatives do actually exist, and that means spending money and working within the capitalist system, more or less. Not easy of course, but I would contend probably more likely to happen than everyone abandoning capitalism completely, or making radical reductions in energy use.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:46 PM on 1 May 2019Rebellious Times
I agree that claiming something horrible will be happening much sooner than it actually will happen is unhelpful. However, it is important to point out the most horrible collective result that could develop as a result of everyone's lack of interest in corrective actions, or their belief that only those people who care should solve the problem themselves (expecting others to solve a problem while you make it worse is worse than irrational).
Socioeconomic-political systems are harmfully and insidiously encouraging people to develop:
- Less concern for things that will happen further in the future. It is not rational to consider a harmful event to be less of a concern if it is further in the future (a broken leg is a broken leg). But many people tend to react and think that way.
- less concern for things that will happen to people they are unlikely to know or care about. Something bad happening to a person cannot rationally be diminished in severity based on 'how well acquainted you are to the person who is suffering' (a person harmed is not less harmed because you do not know them well).
- less concern for things that an individual can think they are only contributing a small amount to. The collective total of actions is the reality. It is not rational to think that individual contributions to an accumulating problem are irrelevant. Every bit adds to the problem.
Issues like climate science (and there are many issues like it), suffer a lack of corrective action because the status-quo socioeconomic-political systems develop harmful irrational ways of thinking that resist correction.
Developing an effective ethical solution within a status-quo that encourages unethical attitudes to develop may not be possible. It may be like that classic description of Insanity. Presenting shocking claims (shock therapy) may be required to bring about the required corrections of thinking that have developed in the status-quo.
As an example it is incorrect to talk about the temperature increase that will occur by 2100. That may be meaningful to scientists, but what really matters politically is the highest temperature that will be created by the accumulated harmful human impacts. It may even be politically appropriate to present what that future would look like with an RCP far exceeding 8.5, combined with the statement that everyone reasonably wealthy today who is resisting correction of their way of life, demanding no loss of perceptions of prosperity or status because of the required correction, is immorally contributing to the creation of that horrific harmful future. The wealthier they are, the more immoral their resistance to correction is.
That change of perception, increased perception that the resisters of 'climate science and its identified corrections of what has developed' are harmful immoral actors, may be required to effectively rapidly reduce the amount of harm being done to future generations.
The past 30 years seem to indicate that compromising to accommodate everyone's personal sovereign interests, no ruffled feathers among the peacocks, will not achieve the rationally required result of rapidly ending the individual contributions of harm to future generations.
Connecting the worst of the possible futures to the worst of the wealthiest is not wrong. Rhetorically tarring and feathering the worst of the wealthy peacocks by pointing out that they are the most immoral and least deserving of respect in the population should not be required, but that depends on how resistant to helping others, especially the future of humanity, they choose to try to be.
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nigelj at 12:51 PM on 1 May 2019Climate change could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions a year by 2090
Jef, I have also considered whether money and the established economic system is the cause of the climate problem, and whether more of the same is capable of fixing the problem. However its simplistic to say capitalism is the cause of the problem. Taking just one example the soviet union still burned oil and used money. Even if we argue that the "industrial economy" is the cause of climate change, and this can be obviously argued, the alternatives like agrarian communities are not without their own problems.
And the trouble is radically different alternatives like alternative communities based on self sufficient living, bartered goods, and shared ownership have been tried for decades and have a history of failure, and it's clear few people want that sort of life. In addition, if you are suggesting we try to fix the climate problem with mostly just drastic reductions to use of energy, we will impoverish people and again its not realistic to me that it would ever happen even if we wanted it to.
The solution looks to me like we have to modify capitalism enough to make it less harsh on the environment. It's certainly clear enough that neoliberal capitalism is problematic and has to change. Finland's socio economic system is a viable alternative in some ways. Perhaps more use could be made of not for profit companies. We obviously need to accept the state has a legitimate, useful role in legislating environmental protection.
And obviously there is a realistic case to waste less energy, recycle more, and to be less materialistic. Anything else might sound nice, but you have to ask yourself can you seriously see people embracing it?
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michael sweet at 09:35 AM on 1 May 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
This article at Thinkprogress describes a poll from CNN that claims 95% of Democratic or Cemocratic leaning voters consider climate change was very important or somewhat important for a candidate to work on.
A similar poll in December indicated 56% of Republicians supported a carbon tax.
Thinkprogress is a liberal news site and sometimes stretches the data but it is a great sign that climate is on the political radar. There are rumors that the Trump campaign is putting together a list of "climate change victories"!!!
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nigelj at 07:13 AM on 1 May 2019Rebellious Times
This is my take on the Truth issue.
There seems to be a good argument emerging that the IPCC reports are conservative in some respects, for example they do not include certain particular feedbacks related to the arctic area. This really needs to be addressed pretty urgently if its the case. This is not to rubbish the reports, which seem very good to me on the whole.
And while the IPCC underestimated the decline of arctic ice as pointed out by extinction rebellion, basic warming estimates have been slightly over (emphasis on slightly) so it cancels out. But the bottom line is I think there are some problems in the reports.
And I have noticed that the summary for policy makers is very muted in its tone, for example talking about good certainty that there will be more heatwaves, but to me totally failing to get across just how severe those heatwaves could become. The summary for policy makers is good on the science, but it communicates in a way that is a bit over nuanced doesn't get across the serious risks and very real possibilities, and it's the document that people read.
The IPCC reports do talk about the possibility of warming considerably exceeding 4 degrees c by 2300 but it gets lost in the fine print in the body of the report that people can easily miss. Likewise there is new research on hothouse earth and climate tipping points. These things need to be better bought to the attention of the public, but one suspects that if they are in the next IPCC report they will be lost in the detail and all but invisible.
I don't think policy should be based on some "reasonably likely scenario". We have to look at worst case scenarios even if they are low probability because the stakes are so high as others have suggested. If we trigger run away warming, there is no nice blue planet close by we can colonise.
But worst case scenarios have to be evidence based. There is evidence sea level rise could well exceed IPCC estimates of 1 metre this century, but claims of 5 - 10 metres this century made by a couple of scientists look hard to explain to me.
And I don't think exaggerated claims help our cause. Guy Macpherson claims humanity would be extinct within ten years due to climate change here. This is obviously in the realms of fantasy. People will think that if one climate expert is crazy perhaps all climate scientists are crazy, because they are looking for a way of doing that to avoid confronting the climate problem.
Of couse climate change will cause huamity problems and increased mortaility, and is almost certain to cause many other species to go extinct, and will exacerbate a very concerning decline in insect numbers.
The writer David Wallace Wells latest book seems to capture the dire risks of climate change in a slightly more soundly based way.
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scaddenp at 07:09 AM on 1 May 2019Rebellious Times
Nick, it annoys me too that many environmental activists run with the idea of picking the worst case scenarios so as to motivate the public or the belief that by pushing to one extreme, then you can shift the outcome closer to a desirable outcome. Long ago, I attended a talk from one activist/analyst that had a lot of examples about how ineffective this was in shifting government policy. It was too easy for officials to demonstrate the exaggerated nature or even falseness of claims, discrediting activists and allowing politicians to score points in debate against them. By constrast, if officials on investigation found that activists were underestimating the problem, the politicians or at least ministry officials would tend to act.
However, it does depend somewhat on extent to which activists do capture the public imagination. If more than 60% of electorate are sympathetic then politicians feel vunerable if opposing. I really wish we could get action on a whole host of issues with a "just the facts" approach but sadly democracies dont work that way.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:47 AM on 1 May 2019Rebellious Times
Nick Palmer,
Let me present 'the basis for the design and construction of structures' and relate it to 'the basis of design and construction of the planet humans can survive on' and see if that changes your mind about the validity of concerns regarding 'extremely unlikely things, but still potential real things'.
The design codes for Structures that have been developed by most developed and developing nations require a high degree of certainty that the structure will function successfully through a period of up to 100 years. To do that, there needs to be less than 2% chance of inadequacy for the combinations of things hat could lead to failure like lower than designed for quality of materials, or more severe than designed for conditions being experienced.
That means that for a structure to be considered reasonably reliable through 100 years a design that leaves a 2% chance of failure is thought to be reasonable, as long as in the event of damage to the structure people can safely exit with the structure being repaired or rebuilt as required before it is deemed suitable for continued use.
Now relate that to the one and only planet that humanity is certain to have a chance of surviving on for the next 1 billion years. What level of likelihood of unacceptable damage done with repair or reconstruction required before it is able to be re-occupied is acceptable? Any chance that is greater than 'None' seems absurd.
The popularity of Other perceptions is a serious problem. Compromising the degree of concern by saying 'things may not be as bad as they might be' doesn't sound Helpful. It can even be extremely harmful if it delays the required improved awareness and understanding needed to support the required correction of developed harmful and unsustainable activities.
Too many times in the past humanity has twiddled it thumbs evading the need to externally act to limit the harmful results of 'Sovereignty' because it is hoped that those pursuing harmful selfish acts under the 'supposedly impenetrable defensive shield of sovereignty' will choose to change their minds and behave better.
Allowing sovereignty to shield harmful Egoism is a serious threat to the future of humanity.
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John Mason at 02:20 AM on 1 May 2019Rebellious Times
Hi Nick,
Coming from the ancient and dogged of SkS, I can sympathise! I do not believe that adopting AMEG's stuff is especially sound. It's not supported by hard evidence. But at the same time, we have created an atmosphere not seen since at least the mid-Pliocene. That we know from hard evidence. There will be wide-ranging consequences (there already are). XR are a very new group and have done important stuff by sheer dint of numbers, and I do not think they have done so by just messaging. Lots of us have seen biodiversity decline severely in our lifetimes. I remember the Cotswolds as a boy. Very different now.
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Nick Palmer at 01:57 AM on 1 May 2019Rebellious Times
I'm uneasy about Extinction Rebellion's 'tell the truth' demand. The 'truth' they are telling their supporters to get them motivated to me looks quite a lot like 'reverse denialism' inasmuch as they cherry pick the very worst projections/predictions, the words of the most 'edgy' scientists and scientifc pundits such as Beckwith, MacPherson, Anderson and use cherry picked realities, such as the faster than expected polar ice loss rates, and that German nature reserve study on flying insects, to create a narrative that we are imminently doomed unless we adopt a 'war' mentality. Their headline net carbon neutrality by 2025 target has been criticised by Dr Adam Levy (ClimateAdam on Youtube) as not only just politically very unlikely but also physically impossible too...
I've ploughed through 3hrs+ of the organisers' videos and they make a big deal of that 'resilience centre' study that basically multiplied all the low-probability-high-impact scenarios together which basically asked what would happen if all the worst things that could happen actually happened - rather like someone who places a ten horse accumulator bet on rank outsiders and expects to get rich quick!
Whilst I believe that for risk assessment purpose such low probability aspects absolutely should not be dismissed I am preety sure, based on what I have seen that ER are promoting the 'ten horse accumulator' as the actual mainstream science which isn't being told to the public to get that public on to the streets protesting.
Anyone who has been fighting denialism for years will know that the denialosphere keep lists of silly or unwise things scientists, pro-climate campaigners such as Al Gore, etc etc have said (such as Viner's 'kids won't know what snow is anymore' remarks) and they wheel them out endlessly for many years afterwards. I think the rhetoric from the organisers of ER looks like a new source for the denailists to use to smear more moderate scientsists and the science itself. -
jef12506 at 00:48 AM on 1 May 2019Climate change could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions a year by 2090
So pay the bill and be done with it. Seriously this kind of analysis is less than worthless as it implies that we can "fix" this by throwing tons of money at it now, or pay later. Both are flat out wrong.
This only goes to prove my comments that money is the #1 reason why we will either do nothing or the wrong things as long as we can all keep making money.
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rayates55 at 23:52 PM on 30 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
I have a question. There are many articles about this familiar positive feedback look from melting permafrost: higher temps melt permafrost which allows decomposition of organic matter that releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere which traps more heat.
But is there must also be a local positive feedback loop, possibly many times stronger and faster, that works like this:
Higher temps melt permafrost which allows decomposition of organic matter. Decomposition is itself an exothermic process directly melts more permafrost.
The temperature boost from decomposition is not a small matter - put your hand into a compost pile sometime. It can be hot. I do not have any quantitative analysis (please provide any you can), but it seems that in the right circumstances there could be runaway local reactions that melt permafrost to deep levels very quickly.
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swampfoxh at 08:56 AM on 30 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #17
When are we going to admit that Animal Agriculture is around 50% of global emissions?. We go after the fossil fuel industries (which we should) and ignore the elephant in the room. Animal Ag has been flying under the radar for the last 50 years of climate change discourse. Animal Ag is primarily responsible for deforestation, desertification, eutrophication of the oceans, significant acidification of the oceans and outsized NOx emissions, wild animal habitat loss, outsized fresh water use, polluted watersheds, untreatable communicable diseases, raising, slaughtering, packing, transportation, storage and even freezers and their associate refrigerant chemicals...not to mention methane emissions. And it doesn't even end there...those are the bigger ones. SKS has an evaluation on Animal Ag emissions, but frankly, it doesn't count everything. The World Bank commissioned WorldWide Watch to take a look at Animal Ag's impact...they came up with 51% about a decade ago. Animal Ag needs to be revisited and if the numbers WorldWatch came to aren't close, we need a new look by the scientific community... and new action to change the food marketplace from animal products to plants.
Moderator Response:[DB] Off-topic snipped. Please read this link before placing any comments on it, including the comments.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:07 AM on 30 April 2019Rebellious Times
John Mason included the very important clarification that the political group causing problems is Neo-liberal, not Conservative.
The harmful actions of Neo-liberal groups are not just denial of climate science and resistance to the required Climate Action corrections of what has developed. They try to promote and prolong many other unsustainable unjust pursuits of personal interest.
In Alberta, where I live, and in many other places, the Neo-liberals learned that they can increase their chances of winning power by uniting with social fundamentalists (change resistant believers in the superiority of their identifiable Tribes - religious or cultural). And they learned to try to be the only, or vastly larger, 'Conservative' named political group in order to also get the votes of people who have grown up Conservative (meaning: grown up to believe that they Must vote for the Conservative - change resisting - candidate)
It costs a Neo-liberal very little to give Fundamentally Intolerant Tribal people what they want. And those Fundamentalists will instinctively passionately (without serious consideration) support any group with leadership that appears to be willing to support and excuse their socially unsustainable and harmful beliefs and actions.
The unacceptability of Uniting government power with religious beliefs was well understood by the Founders of the USA. Had they experienced more recent history they likely would have also understood the importance of separation of government power from any social fundamentalists, and from the interests of the wealthiest.
It is very important to clarify that the Neo-liberals and the social fundamentalists they can be seen uniting with are not Conservatives. They are undeniably corrupting correction-resistant influences on the Right.
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scaddenp at 07:44 AM on 30 April 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddahl44 - straight answer on aerosols - yes. Clean Air acts have enhanced GW. Continuously pumping aerosols into the stratosphere (have to keep doing it as aerosols naturally reduce over quite short time spans) is one of the geoengineering options spotted. On the plus side, clean air makes solar panels more effective and of course it is nice to be able to breath.
The moon is a suitable natural laboratory but I agree that you have to include all factors into the radiative calculation (not a simple process) to account for the observed temperatures. (The effect on no atmosphere is also obvious when consider temperature difference between parts of surface in full sun and say the shadowed part of a crater.
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nigelj at 07:05 AM on 30 April 2019Rebellious Times
This is a really good data based article. Its a bit ominous that almost all the critical comments are characteristic of conservatives, showing just how politicised the whole issue has become, although one suspects the people posting criticial comments are largely working for conservative special interest groups or are disgruntled individuals so perhaps not representative of the great silent majority of conservatives. And its good that extinction rebellion have steered clear of the blame game, and politicising the issue because in democracies we simply have no choice but to try to build political consensus and persuade people.
The china syndrome is of course a weak argument and can be resolved with international agreements getting everyone to pull together. Sadly the dissenters then complain about so called loss of sovereignty. The climate issue has become so deeply frustrating. The denialists will indeed find themselves on the wrong side of history, but probably won't care.
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nigelj at 06:37 AM on 30 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #17
Regarding personal responsibility. There is obvious value in individuals reducing meat consumption and flying less, but I think it's absurd to expect individuals to stop flying, and make big cuts to their consumption of energy and consumer goods, and it isn't happening anyway. Even Jared Diamond has stated its absurd to expect people to go back to the stone age or abandon the capitalist system completely (printed in the NZ Listener magazine). This is not to say that capitalism can continue in its present form.
The climate problem is an energy substitution problem, and principal solution to the climate problem has to come from renewable energy which is feasible, and this is up to governments and corporates. The thing standing in the way of change is conservative leaning vested interest groups well documented in dozens of studies (try the book Dark Money). These have huge power especially over right wing political parties, so don't vote for right wing political parties!
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william5331 at 06:18 AM on 30 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #17
It is so sad that the fantastic publicity that Greta Thunburg and Extinction Rebellion are generating will achieve, at the most, lip service from the politicians who are the only ones that can do the really heavy lifting. https://mtkass.blogspot.com/2018/01/wasted-effort.html
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nigelj at 06:02 AM on 30 April 2019Rebellious Times
Here is a study that suggests peaceful protest is more effective than violent protest, based on hard historical data. It seems to be extinction rebellion has things well worked out.
From what I have read in articles on human behaviour, violence and strong verbal abuse are tactics to intimidate dissenters and shut them up, and are effectively status displays, and are less effective at changing the minds of people especially the great "silent majority" of people.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:36 AM on 30 April 2019Rebellious Times
Regarding claims that 'Net-Zero Britain by 2025 is politically impractical'.
Everyone making that type of claim should be required to admit that damaging deliberate irresponsible political action and related leadership through the past 30 years has created that 'political impracticality' (what Greta Thunberg correctly points out every chance she gets).
The follow-up required admission should be that all of the political participants in that delay tactic (everyone who tried to impede development of improving awareness and understanding and the required corrections), should be removed from the political playing field so that responsible leaders can most effectively act to avoid future 'political impracticality'.
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michael sweet at 02:43 AM on 30 April 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
A summary of the article Postkey mentions is here. This summary is published by Science and is intended to be read by a lay adience. I could not find a free copy of the full text. The paper is not yet listeed on Rosenfeld's CV.
The supplimentary data for the article is located here. Hansen has discussed problems with measuring aerosols for decades. If this result pans out that will be bad news.
Moderator Response:[DB] Check your email
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John Hartz at 02:21 AM on 30 April 2019Rebellious Times
Recommended supplemental readings:
The science behind Extinction Rebellion’s three climate change demands by Adam Vaughan, Environment, New Scientist, Apr 25, 2019
Extinction Rebellion rushes activists' handbook This Is Not a Drill into print by Alison Flood, Books, Guardian, Apr 26, 2019
Why the climate protests that disrupted London were different by Eliza Barclay & Umair Irfan. Energy & environment, Vox, Apr 28, 2019
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John Mason at 01:47 AM on 30 April 2019Rebellious Times
BTW, here's a link to the David Attenborough documentary. H/T Tamino.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLdxWjEWCrk -
Philippe Chantreau at 01:28 AM on 30 April 2019There is no consensus
"A couple of variables." Who cares? Splitting hair about the consensus is likely the least useful way one could spend time on climate change (except for reading WUWT perhaps). Anyone with a functioning brain and some critical thinking skills looking at the science will quickly see where the weight of the evidence resides. There are now some much more pressing imperatives than quantifying and/or qualifying the consensus. The lack of scientific consensus is just another defunct lie from deniers. The rest is details, of truly little interest.
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Eclectic at 01:12 AM on 30 April 2019There is no consensus
Pl @793 ,
< "Consensus" can mean either the proposition itself, or the fact that there's an agreement. For me, the former is rather clear ("AGW is a thing"), the quantification of the latter is what I'm commenting. > unquote .
"Consensus" is potentially a very large Venn Circle indeed, and we would do well to define it more closely and pragmatically. (Semantic confusion can easily be a Black Hole that swallows up any effectual discussion.)
"AGW is a thing" is far from correct. AGW is much more than "a thing" in the colloquial sense ~ AGW is a physical reality. Likewise, choosing to label the Consensus as a proposition, is a choice of even more nebulous terminology.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, for climate purposes Consensus is essentially a term for the established science. (There have been rare occasions when the established non-climate science has been overthrown or enormously modified - think Newtonian/Einsteinian physics of motion - but the established climate science is the product of a century of work by countless thousands of modern scientists, not the work of a single English genius in the 17th Century . . . and the chance of the mainstream climate science being seriously overthrown by startling new insights, is such a vanishingly small chance, as to be ridiculously fanciful.
#
In looser terminology, "Consensus" is often used in climate matters as a type of numerical proxy for the scientific position. It is this latter meaning which gives rise to public confusion/uncertainty about the actual underlying science (a confusion magnified by numerous propagandists who injected much deliberate obfuscation).
The purpose of the Cook et al., 2013 study was to achieve an improvement over earlier studies/surveys : to achieve a more definitive figure for the numerical consensus, and to greatly reduce the scope for any [as you yourself quote:] "lines of attack from deniers". The Cook study was very clever - and award-winning - and produced the very widely cited 97% figure, which has become notorious (and which has become infuriating & nauseating, to all the science-deniers).
As might be expected, the denialists' fury has resulted in massive eruptions of Motivated Reasoning. The gigantic brain of Lord Monckton (and cronies) has produced very "creative accounting" which has variously redefined the Cook 97% figure down to 33% or 13% or 4% or similar absurd figures. Yet that's hardly surprising, coming from intellects which are in full denial about the physical properties of CO2.
As I mentioned earlier, the 2013 Cook study is now quite dated ~ centered on approximately 2005. More modern studies [e.g. 2014] show a consensus well above 99%. And more importantly, the "contrarians" have still produced nothing valid in the way of support for their skepticism. Nothing at all.
Pl , the 2016 link you gave earlier (to Cook and other consensus investigators) is merely a meta-analysis.
#
"Circling back" to your original comments ~ Pl , I had hoped I had already answered your "two examples" ; answered them directly as well as en passant. If that is not so (in your own mind), then perhaps I have not expressed myself clearly enough. Or perhaps you are doubling-down on your "Devil's Advocacy". Either way, you will need to state your objections in a far more precise & thorough manner.
At the same time, you might care to expand on the "non-binary nature" you mentioned ~ although once you have eliminated the obscurity, it might well be that we find it rather off-topic for this thread.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:28 AM on 30 April 2019Rebellious Times
A significant point is that all of the "Civil Disobedience Disruption" by XR protests was done without any angry violence.
Groups like the Yellow-Vesters in France could learn from that example.
There have been cases of deliberate planting of violent agitators into peaceful protests that become too effective. At least in Britain there is little chance of the likes of Russian Cossack gangs attacking the protests. The USA is not as likely to have XR protests be free from that type of attack.
Hopefully XR will have enough vigilant trained peaceful protest monitors in every location they act to effectively safely maintain their Peaceful Civil Disobedient Inconvenient Disruption Protests. Like the leaders of the construction industry say "Safety First: There is no reason for anyone to get hurt. Everyone needs to participate in ensuring that is the reality at the end of every day." (Of course many construction industry companies still try to maximize their profit by getting things done quicker and cheaper at the expense of safety, but they do not really have a future).
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Postkey at 23:28 PM on 29 April 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
'However, new research published in Science by Hebrew University of Jerusalem Professor Daniel Rosenfeld shows that the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated, necessitating a recalculation of climate change models to more accurately predict the pace of global warming.
And, they discovered that aerosols' cooling effect is nearly twice higher than previously thought.
However, if this is true then how come the earth is getting warmer, not cooler? For all of the global attention on climate warming, aerosol pollution rates from vehicles, agriculture and power plants is still very high. For Rosenfeld, this discrepancy might point to an ever deeper and more troubling reality. "If the aerosols indeed cause a greater cooling effect than previously estimated, then the warming effect of the greenhouse gases has also been larger than we thought, enabling greenhouse gas emissions to overcome the cooling effect of aerosols and points to a greater amount of global warming than we previously thought," he shared.' -
Kevin C at 20:50 PM on 29 April 2019Rebellious Times
The response to the XR protests looks very much like the response to the women's suffrage movement or the civil rights movement. If you can't credibly attack a protestor's claims, then attack their methods.
But if you look at the structure of the attacks, it soon become clear that the only acceptable method of protest, according to the critics, is ineffective protest. People are welcome to protest as long as their protests cause no inconvenience or discomfort to anyone else; in other words if the protests are ineffective.
In the case of the suffrage movement and the civil rights movement, the critics also found themselves on the wrong side of history.
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Eclectic at 19:24 PM on 29 April 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddahl44 @142 ,
Fortunately for your self-respect, I count myself among the least intelligent of the semi-regular commenters here at SkepticalScience [ SkS ]. So you yourself are probably way smarter than me. (But I can still walk & chew gum at the same time.) So relax and be happy !
My answer to your questions would be :-
(A) Each individual molecule of H2O or CO2 or other "radiatively active" chemical compound is capable of absorbing an infra-red photon from a narrow range of IR wavelengths. The energized molecule (now vibrating faster internally) then almost immediately collides with a neighbouring molecule (highly likely to be a nitrogen or oxygen molecule) and propels that to a faster speed . . . and subsequent chain collisions have the effect of warming the neighbouring air.
For comparison purposes : the exact amount of energy absorbed by an H2O / CO2 / etc molecule is proportionate to the inherent energy of the IR photon (which energy ~ is a function of the photon wavelength).
So that is not very useful info at a macro scale. I should imagine what you are more interested in is the relative real-world contributions of H2O / CO2 to the Greenhouse Effect.
But the answer to that question is very complex.
In the back of my own head, I remember the (very simplistic) contribution figures : 60% from H2O ; 30% from CO2 ; 10% from minor GH Gasses.
The correct answer is way more complex than that ~ for it could be argued H2O is closer to 80% , if you add in the effect of clouds . . . also the H2O, CO2 and other gasses can be assessed at somewhat different figures if you allow for IR band overlaps and/or assess the various compounds acting separately or in various combinations with other GH Gasses.
An important point to remember (and you will find various threads discussing this aspect) is that H2O can condense out of the atmosphere (unlike the noncondensable gasses) . . . so, in effect H2O is the tail being wagged by the CO2 dog (so to speak). That's why the scientists speak of CO2 as the "control knob" for temperature (along with changes in solar output, of course).
(B) Moon surface temperatures are a complex topic. And as you say, the moon has a much lower rotation speed, so it is even less relevant for comparison with Earth.
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Eclectic at 18:38 PM on 29 April 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddahl44 @143 , the answer comes in two parts.
To give perspective : consider the case of a major volcanic eruption which shoots large amounts of sulfate aerosol (and other) particles up into the stratosphere. These sulfates etc act as a partial mirror, reflecting away the short-wave radiation which is coming from the sun. The result is a reduction of average global temperature for 1 to 3 years. All fine & dandy ~ but the underlying mechanism of ongoing global warming (i.e. the modern excess of Greenhouse gasses) has still been operating. And so, once the sulfate particles have settled out, we soon find ourselves at the new higher temperture . . . being pretty much the same as it would have been without the volcano. In other words, there has been a slight postponement of hotter climate ~ but not by very much at all.
A similar thing happened with the increased industrialisation after World War 2. Over the period of (roughly) 1945 - 1975 , the air pollution particles had a temporary masking effect which seemingly gave some pause in AGW . . . but with cleaner air later, the AGW effect showed its underlying strength.
Global surface temperatures vary up and down a bit, but are still rising and rising overall. In particular, the ocean is still warming (the ocean absorbs more than 90% of the excess heat "caused" by AGW.)
Unfortunately, air pollution particles (from dirtier air in China, India, etc) can never be the cure for global warming. You would have to peddle faster and faster, with more & thicker dirty air, to mask the underlying Greenhouse AGW effect ~ since you produce the dirty air by burning coal/oil (and thus creating more and more CO2). You would be repeatedly shooting yourself in the foot, with a larger and larger gun.
So, not at all a "fix" for the basic problem.
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Ddahl44 at 13:55 PM on 29 April 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
I forgot - the posts here seem to suggest by improving air quality by removing particulates from the atmosphere what with the Clean Air Act, we have actually accelerated global warming. Is that correct?
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Ddahl44 at 13:46 PM on 29 April 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
I realize I am very late to the game. I ended up here after a Google search interested in 1)how the absence of an atmosphere/GHGs affects temperatures on the moon and 2)since day/night temperatures vary so much in the desert and this is attributed to water vapor, how do H2O and CO2 compare in heat trapping efficiency/ability in both a relative (molecule to molecule basis) and absolute (realizing cloud cover/relative humidity variability). After reading the introduction and the posts, I further realize: 1)you all are way smarter than me 2)I might be in the wrong place - if so please direct with links to where I should head. One question I have regarding what I have read here - In Mr. Cook’s Introduction, he uses the moon as an example where an absence of GHGs explains the moon’s huge day to night temperature swings. In all due respect, might the moon’s 13 Earth day long night be the main contributor to these swings rather than absence of GHGs? I respectfully thank you all in advance.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:26 PM on 29 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
I find it helpful to describe Climate Science Deniers as “People trying to deliberately delay the correction of harmful unsustainable beliefs and actions that many humans have developed a liking for”. They do not care about eventually being proven wrong. And they may need to be externally motivated to behave decently. They see the required Climate Action corrections as personal Losses. Every year that they can delay their perception of personal Loss is tragically seen to be a “Win” from their developed narrow perspective of concern.
The stories that 'get believed' are the 'perceived reality for each person'. In games able to be ruled by the 'majority of passionate public opinion (opinions of those motivated to and able to vote) in the moment of an election', misleading marketing and other political tactics (gerrymandering, voter suppression tactics) can be successfully abused to limit the influence of correct understanding.
The popularity of incorrect beliefs and the profitability of related incorrect actions can be hard to Over-Power, hard to correct. The Inconvenient Stories that need to have increased awareness and support are the ones exposing that there is no Real Sustainable future for any society that fails to accomplish the harder task of correcting and limiting the development of harmful beliefs and actions in its population.
Developed perceptions of superiority are only 'Really Sustainable', only have a future, when they are based on an improving understanding of what is going on that is being applied to sustainably develop benefits for the future of humanity.
Based on that understanding this story is encouraging and discouraging.
My expectation was that when a person developed an improved awareness and understanding of an important issue like climate science they would be very unlikely to be tempted to change their mind about the need to help rapidly end the harmful unsustainable use of fossil fuels.
The author and his father did not appear to have sustainably developed an improved awareness and understanding of climate science and the related required corrections of what has developed. Perhaps they had not accepted that it was unacceptable for already fortunate people to try to continue to benefit from fossil fuels.
The father was easily tempted to toss away his previous understanding. And the author's initial impression was to accept and even like the incorrect “Inconvenient Facts” book. The author of the article deserves credit for being curious enough to independently and thoroughly investigate and refute the claims made. But it does sound like he initially accepted what he should have seen as an incorrect story. And the father gets credit for changing his mind based on someone else, his son, putting the effort into improving his understanding.
But the question remains “Have they sustainably developed an improved awareness and understanding, or are they still hopeful that they will be able to excuse continuing to try to benefit from fossil fuels?
Tragically, competitions for perceptions of prosperity and status based on popularity and profit cause many people to develop to be more Egoist than Altruist. Being Egoist is easy to do and easy to be rewarded for. Consciously limiting your behaviour and choosing to be helpfully Altruistic is harder work and can even be penalized.
As a result, many people unquestioningly go with their first impressions of what they like/dislike. If they put effort into considering their initial impressions they often do the following simple math:
What is my benefit if what I like, believe and do is proven later to be incorrect?
minus
What is my cost if what I like, believe and do is proven later to be incorrect?A key unstated aspect of that consideration is 'later' being cared about less than Now. A related unstated aspect is that if the consequences are late enough I will not suffer the cost. And that 'consideration' also dismisses or diminishes fundamental concerns about being correct rather than incorrect Now. In fact, the evaluation many people develop a tendency to make is more like:
“What is my benefit if I can get away with not correcting or changing what I have developed a liking for believing and doing? (combined with) What are the chances that I will get away with what I like believing and doing?”
minus
“What is my penalty for getting caught not correcting or changing what I have developed a liking for believing and doing? (combined with) What are the chances that I will face that penalty for what I like believing and doing?”That can be a powerful motivation to obtain maximum personal benefit by supporting efforts to delay the correction of understanding that would lead to effective efforts to correct what people are doing Now, including effective significant penalties for acting incorrectly Now. A related motivation is dislike of efforts that would improve understanding and passionate dislike of efforts that would correct incorrect behaviour.
Recently I have seen many reports of politicians making sound-byte marketing claims based on one or both of the Two main points identified by MacDonald: "1) climate change is happening, but it’s not human-caused so there’s no point in modifying our behavior; and 2) global warming is, in fact, a good thing because historically human societies perform better in warmer climates, crops grow better with more CO2, and because it will help counter the next ice age."
And the political affiliations of the people making and liking such claims appear to be strongly Right Wing. But the attitude can also develop in someone inclined to be more left wing. Someone tending to the left wing can still like some right wing stuff.
The root of the problem appears to be that competitions for popularity and profit are an environment that misleading political actors thrive in. There is little perceived down-side for them choosing to make misleading appeals to a diversity of incorrect beliefs and desired actions. There is no penalty for attempting to resist efforts to helpfully progressively sustainably limit or correct the things that people have incorrectly developed a liking for.
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nigelj at 08:00 AM on 29 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Some other benefits of renewable energy from the union of concerned scientists.
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There is no consensus
Eclectic @790,
"Consensus" can mean either the proposition itself, or the fact that there's an agreement. For me, the former is rather clear ("AGW is a thing"), the quantification of the latter is what I'm commenting.
The paper I was linking to is also "Cook et al", but from 2016, so perhaps an updated and upgraded version.
Where our views may differ is your last sentence, where you consider measure of consensus "essentially irrelevant". I may agree that it is not absolutely essential in case of AGW, where it's rather obvious that a widespread consensus exists. I still think it is relevant, especially as questioning the consensus is one of the lines of attack from deniers.
Generally speaking, measuring consensus as a concept of skeptical thinking is also very relevant, but I think it's pretty obvious.
So circling back to my original comment, I still don't see couple of variables influencing the measure (I have given two examples) being addressed.
In addition to the two examples, there'd be more. I already alluded to natural non-binary nature of scientific claims. Skimming through the Cook 2016 article, I also didn't find it explicitly addressed. We would probably agree that it's something completely different to claim "90+% of scientists agree, that the probability of AGW is above x" when the x is 50% compared to say x=99%.
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william5331 at 06:24 AM on 29 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Perhaps explain to the Monktons and other climate change deniers that even if they are right that climate change is not happening, or it is happening and we are not causing it or, it is happening and it will be good for us, there are other compelling reasons to wean ourselves off of fossil fuel. https://mtkass.blogspot.com/2010/10/forget-climate-change.html
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jzk at 05:46 AM on 29 April 2019Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
@Art Vandelay,
What was Phil Jones "worried" about? If global warming were to stop, why would that cause someone to "worry?" Why wouldn't they "celebrate?"
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Johnboy at 02:38 AM on 29 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Not only does Whitestone lop off temperature data at 2012, he also deceives by starting his chart at 1998, whichat the time was the warmest year on record, due to El Ninõ. El Ninõ years aside, global temperatures are clearly rising since 1970. This deception is similar to that depicting warming starting at the Maunder Minimum.
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cpske at 23:37 PM on 28 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
So, I went over to Amazon to see how "Inconvenient Facts" was playing and it was quite shocking. A summary of the reviews went something like this: Thank God you've finally told us the truth about Global Warming.
I posted a review and referenced Willard MacDonald's rebuttal, but not having purchased the book from Amazon they may not publish my comment.
Still, since this is a battle of the lay books, I thought of starting a Global Warming book club and read and discuss such books as "The Uninhabitable Earth" by David Wallice-Wells.
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Hank11198 at 21:42 PM on 28 April 2019Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
alea @ 17 "No, and the reason is that gasoline is an energy dense fuel for motor vehicles, so a full tank will last a while." I understand that gasoline powered cars can go further than electric cars at this time. But that doesn't change the point I was making. As long as the storage capacity of electric cars is more than a round trip to work there is no necessity for charging the battery at work. And electric cars easily have that storage capacity for a large majority of American workers.
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nigelj at 10:40 AM on 28 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
John Hartz, fwiw I think MacDonald’s rebuttal of the book is well written, appears to cover all the main points, is scientifically accurate, polite but hard hitting, engaging, about the right length. Bear in mind I haven't read the book, but enough is quoted to get the gist of things.
It managed to cover both the facts and logical fallacies. Perhaps it could have covered the later in more specific detail. But overall I dont know what else one could do in terms of a rebuttal.
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michael sweet at 10:35 AM on 28 April 2019Should a Green New Deal include nuclear power?
Joe Rohm describes the Trump administration's decision to allow nuclear plants to ignore flood risks here. I have seen similar reports elsewhere.
The article describes efforts made to reevaluate flood risks to nuclear power plants after the Fukushima disaster. It was found that 90% of nuclear plants were not built to withstand current flood risks. The Trump administration overruled the NRC staff and decided not to require the plants to build new defenses against flooding.
Of course we already know that the nuclear industry does not care who they harm.
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John Hartz at 08:24 AM on 28 April 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
nigelj: What did you think of MacDonald's rebuttal of the entire book?
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bjchip at 07:25 AM on 28 April 2019Empirically observed fingerprints of anthropogenic global warming
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0442%282004%29017%3C3721%3ACONAAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2#
Moderator Response:[DB] Thanks for that. I rebuilt the links and images and all should work now.
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bjchip at 07:23 AM on 28 April 2019Empirically observed fingerprints of anthropogenic global warming
Link to Meehl, 2004 paper (source of graphic) is now broken. I briefly looked for it on the CSIRO site without success.
http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/jma/meehl_additivity.pdf
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David Kirtley at 07:22 AM on 28 April 2019Is the grid ready for electric vehicles?
alea @17: "One comment I have heard from doubters of electric vehicles is that if they became widespread in the UK, the government would lose a lot of tax revenue through fuel tax (which is high in the UK), how would they compensate for this deficit?"
I touched on this in this comment to my post about my personal EV experience. Here in the US many states require EV owners to pay an extra yearly fee/tax which is supposed to offset the fuel taxes not paid. Here in Missouri the yearly fee is $75. I calculated that if I were driving a gas car the same number of miles as my EV, then I would only be paying about $49/year in fuel taxes to Missouri and $52/year to the Federal gov't. So Missouri is actually getting more money from me, but the Feds are out of luck. If/when(?) our Federal gov't ever rises to the level of basic competence again(?), then perhaps they will come up with some logical way to raise taxes for highway maintenance from EV owners.
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