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JMurphy at 06:04 AM on 2 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
robhon, don't you think it is rather ironic the way Poptech complains about these studies, given the methods he uses to include all sorts of publications in his little list of so-called anti-AGW studies, i.e. he believes them to be anti-AGW, no matter what the authors themselves state; and papers from 'Energy & Environment' are considered as worth the same as papers from properly peer-reviewed publications. -
Doug Bostrom at 05:24 AM on 2 August 2010The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
No, I'm in Washington state; took that on Friday at the turnout on Stephens Pass. Duly noted; North Cascades should -not- look like Siskiyous, I could have been more explicit. Snow-free N. Cascades seem in keeping with predicted latitude migration of dynamic natural features. -
muoncounter at 05:03 AM on 2 August 2010The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
#22: "muoncounter's photo looks more like mid-summer Siskiyou Mountains in southern Oregon" No, I'm in Washington state; took that on Friday at the turnout on Stephens Pass. Here's a link to their snow report for last season (68" below average). Flew over the Rainer area on this past Tuesday; not much summer snow up there either. Here's a webcam. Anyone doubting the severity of glacier melt should look at mspelto's website, especially the graph shown below.
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johnd at 04:10 AM on 2 August 2010Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
Given the subject at the base of this discussion is electromagnetic radiation, perhaps going back to the very basics of EMR helps. From Wikipedia, "a travelling EM wave incident on an atomic structure induces oscillation in the atoms of that structure, thereby causing them to emit their own EM waves, emissions which alter the impinging wave through interference." It seems that it is irrelevant whether or not that the emitter "knows" the state of the external objects. What is relevant is that the external objects "know" their own state. -
Phil at 03:50 AM on 2 August 2010Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
If, for instance, stars radiated without a destination for each photon, there would be a photon clouds collecting in the furthest reaches of space. This of course is not the case.at This is sooo funny ! Of course, the clouds of photons that have no destination must be unseeable, because if you can see them then they have a destination (your detector). So you can't say they don't exist ! -
michael sweet at 03:47 AM on 2 August 201010 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
I find it ironic that BP says we should discard Trenberth's careful, professional, peer reviewed estimate when he (BP) frequently says we should accept his amateur, back of the envelope, unreviewed calculations in the interest of advancing knowledge. In this case I think we should go with the peer reviewed estimates rather than throw up our hands and say our measurements have too much error, we know nothing. As better data becomes available we will have less error. One of the purposes of making such estimates is determining where to put effort at measuring the heat flux. While it is not possible for me to evaluate Trenberth's error, in my experience the first estimates of data often turn out close to the final estimates. When I look at past climate data estimates they are almost always conservative (they error on the cooling side, not the warming side). I expect this to be the case here also. -
Doug Bostrom at 03:47 AM on 2 August 2010Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
GHGs perform their effect by reducing the rate of loss of energy from an object or system enshrouded in GHGs. Failure to take on board that very basic phenomenon makes further discussion of the topic of AGW entirely pointless. RSVP, if you don't believe in that phenomenon you should consider heading over to Roy Spencer's website where he is actively teaching on the subject right now. -
canbanjo at 03:44 AM on 2 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
Alexandre at 02:27 AM on 2 August, 2010 boykoff publications / links here: http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/boykoffmax.php and the full anderegg paper is here: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html -
Rob Honeycutt at 03:30 AM on 2 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
I would suggest that Poptech's (#15 and #16) complaints against each of these papers are not reasonable. In relation to Doran 2009 the response rate of the questionaire would have no bearing on the poll results. The sample size is large enough to produce a margin of error of ~4%. That would not appreciably change the conclusion of the paper. The complaints against Anderegg 2010 are even more bizarre. Pure hearsay and speculation. If he wants to make a substantive case that the paper is in error he should at least make an attempt to reproduce the results and show where it is in error rather than just spouting off. -
michael sweet at 03:30 AM on 2 August 2010The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Angusmac, Looking at the data you posted, it is clear that the temperature in Greenland in 2006 is the same as it was in the 30's and 40's. Chris's quote shows 2005 as a record year, and it has been warmer than that in the years since 2005. The current trend now is clearly warmer. Model data give reasons for the high temperatures in the 30's and 40's. I think you are optimistic about the future of Greenland based on the data you posted. -
CBDunkerson at 03:07 AM on 2 August 2010September 2010 Arctic Ice Extent Handicapping Via ARCUS
Yep, extent can fluctuate wildly for any given volume / area of sea ice. The comment about this variability being greater now due to the ice being thinner is a very good point. Also, they've put up the July predictions;
Interestingly, the accompanying writeup states that some of these went up due to the slower rate of decline at the start of July... indicating that they include data past the end of June though not exactly how much.
In any case, many predictions also went down and several now show a possible new record minimum. Interestingly, PIPS is now showing ice thickness and concentration both greatly below their 2007 values, but the extent is decreasing slightly more slowly. This again emphasizes the point about weather being such an important factor in determining extent. Even when the volume is significantly lower the extent can still be higher. Thus, it is really only a useful indicator on a decadal scale.
Right now it looks likely to come out a little higher than the 2008 (second lowest) value, but could theoretically still beat 2007. It doesn't seem likely that it'll be higher than the 2009 (third lowest) value, but some extreme weather shift could still cause that.
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10 key climate indicators all point to the same finding: global warming is unmistakable
Geo Guy - in regards to the thermodynamics of melting glaciers, 1 oC can matter a LOT. Glacier dynamics are an ongoing process. Snow falls every year, accumulating in central Greenland (for example). Glaciers move to the shore driven by ice pressure, at speeds dependent upon the amount of liquid lubricating their bases, back-pressure from the calving fronts, friction, etc etc. And they then calve off and melt into the ocean. The melting/calving isn't an on/off switch, it's a continuous process tied to temperature of the air and water around Greenland. An analogy; You have a queue of people for a concert, 100 people in line. Every minute 10 people get their tickets and enter the concert, and every minute 10 people arrive at the back to line up. The individuals in the line change, but you will always have 100 people in line. Now you give the ticket-sellers large expressos, and they work faster. 10 people/minute are still arriving, but 11 people per minute leave. The ongoing ticketing rate has increased. Not a state change, but a rate change. After an hour, will you still have 100 people in line? No - you'll be down to 40, and dropping. Increasing the rate of glacial melt more than increasing the rate of snow accumulation will decrease the total glacial icepack. -
Alexandre at 02:27 AM on 2 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
Where do I find Boykoff 2008? It seems like an update of Boykoff & Boykoff 2004. And indeed, the media coverage and public perceptions are astonishingly similar. -
stmwatkins at 01:33 AM on 2 August 201010 key climate indicators all point to the same finding: global warming is unmistakable
Ned #94 Here's a serious question. Is there any "skeptic" reading this thread who is willing to categorically state that yes, CO2 is in fact a greenhouse gas? No caveats, no "allegedly", no "for the sake of argument". Just "yes". Yes. I consider myself a "skeptic". I believe that CO2 is greenhouse gas, I believe that increasing CO2 concentrations will warm the atmosphere and I also believe that the recent (~30 year) temperature record shows an increase. My main skepticism revolves around how much of the warming is anthropogenic, since much of this "appears" to determined by the GCM's. I am in the process of looking into this for myself. Ned, does that answer your question?Moderator Response: There is a followup post summarizing the evidence for anthropogenic causes of the warming. -
Phil at 01:29 AM on 2 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
John Chapman #18 This debate is already taking place and is, of course, the remit of IPCC working group II. (Working group I covers the same subject area as this site - the evidence for AGW) A summary of the latest report (for policy makers - i.e. non-technical) is here. -
angusmac at 00:50 AM on 2 August 2010The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
#11 chris at 02:25 AM on 1 August, 2010 Thanks chris for pointing out the "well below" typo. Perhaps I should have said Figure 1 shows that current temperatures are similar to those reached in the 1930s and 1940s. Nevertheless, Chylek et al (2006) state that, "... almost all post-1955 temperature averages at Greenland stations are lower (colder climate) than the pre-1955 temperature average." This is the opposite of global temperature measurements. Only longer-term measurements will determine if Greenland "catches up" the 1-1.5°C suggested by you (after Box et al, 2009). Until then, I reiterate that Chylek et al (2006) state that Greenland is colder now than it was pre-1955. -
huntjanin at 00:46 AM on 2 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
In my book-in-progress about sea level rise, I want to have some "poster children" for sea level rise -- that is to say, different countries with different approaches (or lack of them) to the problem. I already have two candidates (the Netherlands, and Nigeria) and will welcome your suggestions for others. What do you think?Response: Bangladesh would be an obvious poster child, being such a low lying country that is already suffering inundation issues - I've heard stories of villages that have been abandoned due to flooding and the locals/government lacking the resources to build levees to fix it. Sadly, some people are so poor, they don't even have the ability to relocate without losing everything and they're stuck in these situations. Sadly, the glib argument "don't worry about global warming, we'll adapt when it happens" doesn't apply to those who lack the resources to adapt and this isn't some impact in the distant future - it's happening now. -
John Chapman at 00:11 AM on 2 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
Once the battle for acceptance of AGW has been won, the next debate will be the seriousness of the consequences? One camp (the ex-deniers) will argue that just patching up the problems (like building dykes) as they occur is better than doing something now - like spending a fortune on wind farms or nuclear power plants. -
John Brookes at 22:28 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
Most people are pretty reasonable, and will accept the views of experts. They will also accept that when experts disagree, they should just sit on the fence and wait until the experts have sorted it out. The problem is that the media portrays the skeptics "experts" too fairly, and creates doubt in the public mind because they see "experts" disagreeing. If you look at Jo Nova's site, you'll see they are wanting the ABC to give their views equal time. Of course the Murdoch media is cheering on coal. -
RSVP at 21:15 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
huntjanin #6 That is a great story as it makes one ask whether global warming is really something the public will notice in time. Paradoxically, the more global warming awareness depends on scientists, the more benign it must be; however, things arent always what they seem. Example, chain smokers that end up with cancer find out the hard way. -
Phil at 20:44 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
There is a common misconception in the graphic which is that correlation (of the media and public perception) implies causation (i.e. the public think that because the media have told them) Indeed one could argue the other way; that the media, so intent on retaining their customer base, are simply reflecting what their readership think. My own, rather pessimistic, belief is that much of the denier-sphere, free of any real constraint to think logically, often back-think along the lines of "I like driving and flying, I don't like being made to feel guilty about it therefore I'll grab any half-arsed argument to rubbish AGW, and then I can fly guilt free" Its from such thinking that the pensions of people like Ian Plimer and Nigel Lawson are secured. It doesn't really help that tackling climate change is somewhat confused in the public mind with "being green" which in turn often suggests a hippy-style, mother earth lifestyle with too much interest in sewerage. Many people don't like it and so the back-think tendancy kicks in. So, as great a job as Skeptical Science, Real Climate, Science of Doom etc do, and no matter how often people demonstrate that deniers really don't understand the second law of thermodynamics, it is changing the perception of the lifestyle changes that will really shift public opinion. -
RSVP at 20:21 PM on 1 August 2010Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
to doug_bostom The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that there can be no net transfer of energy between two bodies at the same temperature. Whether or not the emitter "knows" about the temperature of external objects apriory doesnt really matter. Based on the Second Law, this idea is immaterial and has only caused digression, the obvious implication being that waste heat will have a cancelling affect against GHG back radiation. -
JMurphy at 20:08 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
I think the figures above which represent the public's views, are a little misleading because, although only 26% accept the fact that AGW is happening, 38% seem to think that it hasn't been proved conclusively, and a further 35% either think it isn't happening at all or is just propaganda. It seems that it is that 38% that is being misled by the media and which needs to be sought out and shown the facts. How ? That is the problem. It is interesting, though, that the survey shows slightly more people who were MORE convinced about AGW after hearing about things like Climategate, etc, although the vast majority didn't change their views at all. Full details here. From other polls, however, and considering all the noise there has been over the last year or so from the denialosphere, it is still encouraging that more people still accept AGW generally, than deny it - although many think it is exaggerated or won't affect them personally. More polls here, here, here, and here. (We need more up-to-date ones, obviously) Another problem, which I'm not too clear about with regard to its influence, is the blogosphere, particularly the denial part of it. During one week last December, the blogosphere had five times as much coverage of AGW as the mainstream media, mainly down to so-called Climategate, I suppose. That has to be taken into account when deciding how to get the media to concentrate on the facts behind the science because, no doubt, once the mainstream moves towards reality, the denialosphere will surely move more towards extreme denial, which will hopefully only convince those already convinced in their long-held beliefs in conspiracy, etc. Those non-committed at that stage will surely reject such denial sites then, the way most people reject the 9/11 Troofer sites now. -
Glenn Tamblyn at 18:29 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
A poll I remember reading here in Australia, although I can't find it no showed people who don't believe AGW is real at all was 13%, up from 10% a couple of years back. So the deniers had made some inroads. The frightening part was that of those who believed AGW was real, around half thought it wasn't happening very fast so we didn't need to do to much about it yet. Through such well meant ambivalence do civilisations die. -
Doug Bostrom at 17:45 PM on 1 August 2010The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Veering slightly OT, for those unfamiliar w/the U.S. Pacific Northwest muoncounter's photo looks more like mid-summer Siskiyou Mountains in southern Oregon, not North Cascades in mid-summer. Last-minute shot of snow did not last. California's going to be really sad when we have to stop exporting power. Plans until late winter this year were to cut exports by 50%, which would have raised rates up here since the utility would lose that revenue. Push comes to shove, we'll get the juice, California won't. They should consider very carefully whether to vote to reverse already-agreed efficiency improvements in this year's election. Coal companies interfering in the referendum process will be quite happy to sell more coal to make up for a poorly thought-out decision. Things do get complicated when all the cards are thrown in the air. -
Doug Bostrom at 16:31 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
Another nice graphic depiction here, covering only one story. Might be a handy example when thinking about thindadonta's more general remarks. For my part, if I'm a mechanical engineer designing locomotives and a mathematician points out to me that I'm making a mistake and that designing a railroad locomotive using the fallacy that 2+2=4.25 is a cause for concern, I should thank him. If I ignore him and the mathematician objects to being coerced into joining other travelers riding transport equipment designed around fallacies, I can't reasonably object. If the mathematician adds his informed voice to a public hue and cry to correct the problem, I don't have reasonable grounds to object. The only legitimate reason I can think of for objecting to such a continuum of activity is if the mathematician were incorrect, or if I did not care about public safety for some reason. So if we have a problem with scientists participating in public policy, the answer lies not in silencing them but instead in doing -better- science to overcome their concerns. If we can't do that, we're better to listen instead of reaching for a gag. -
muoncounter at 15:58 PM on 1 August 2010The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
#16: "Unfortunately in 2005 and 2009 even the accumulation zone lost all of its recent snowpack." Forgive the anecdotal evidence, but I was up in the Cascades yesterday. Temps in the 80s, precious little snow visible from the road; none at all in this pic from Stephens Pass.
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muoncounter at 15:17 PM on 1 August 201010 key climate indicators all point to the same finding: global warming is unmistakable
#103: "there is evidence that solar winds can be a strong indicator of variations in global temperatures." Well, you better be prepared to show that evidence, as there is a wealth of publicly accessible solar wind data out there. For example, here's a picture of the solar wind during that hot year all the deniers find so interesting (1998).
And here's 1999
As a cosmic ray researcher, I know those spikes relate to CMEs. But I wonder: What's the 'strong indicator'? Or will this be just another easily-repeated denier mantra based on a subjective read of the actual research?
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Josie at 15:12 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
It would also be quite interesting to compare media reporting and public perceptions in different countries on other issues too (not just climate). I don't suppose anyone knows of any research that has been done into this? Not my area! -
gallopingcamel at 15:08 PM on 1 August 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Pete Ridley (#150 & #151) Sorry to hear that you will be taking a break as many of your comments make perfect sense to me. When Barry Brook pushes nuclear power as the only long term basis for an industrial civilisation I support him. "Renewables" are wonderful but they will not deliver enough power to sustain first world living standards at an affordable cost. Barry's #1 argument for Nuclear Power Plants is to save the planet from increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. My #1 reason for using nuclear power is economics; NPPs will provide the cheapest electricity in the long term (centuries rather than decades). As you point, out coal is often the source of the cheapest electricity today. When "Scott" posted a study that showed nuclear power as cheaper than coal, my bulls**t detector activated as you will see in this link: http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/07/28/nuclear-power-yes-please-for-cc/#comment-86087 The interesting thing about Barry's blog is that it may help conservatives to work with their political opponents. Maybe Barry can lead us beyond politics. You mention electric vehicles as "personal transport". In my estimation such vehicles can be economic for many uses, including commuting to work. I own an electric car which is fun to drive. I just wish it had the performance of the EV1 described in the Sony movie "Who Killed the Electric Car". I will not be buying a Chevy "Volt" because at $33,500 ($41,000 minus $7,500 government subsidy) it is far too expensive. You can buy a new road worthy electric car here for as little as $3,000 ($9,000 minus $6,000 federal tax credit). -
Josie at 15:08 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
I would be very interested in analyses that compare the different media and public perceptions in different countries. Does anyone know of anywhere that this has been done or will I have to do it myself? -
tonydunc at 15:06 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
I would question the media coverage and public perception figures. i do not think either are as negative as these graphics portray. I have not read or heard about studies that show only 26% of the public thinks Global Warming is real. And unless one is including the right wing blogoshere, I doubt the media coverage is only 28% supportive. I would guess it is more like 50-50. And I have seen polls that showed significantly more than 50% believe ACC is real and happening. There is no need to exaggerate the problem, since the disconnect between 97% and even 60% is a serious problem @Thigadonta@4 You are right that scientists should not be determining policy, other than as concerned citizens. and they should be contributing only to their areas of expertice. The problem is that almost NOTHING is being done, there is NO policy toward climate change, which means the policy is effectively to do nothing. You can't really expcet scientists who understand what is happening to not react. I see a similar situation with military leaders. While they are subordinate to the civilian political structure their obligation is to advise on national security. In 1938 after Germany had annexed Austria and Sudetenland, and Japan had occupied China and indochina, would you consider it improper for military leaders to say we have to do SOMETHING to defend against German and Japanese Military. it is POSSIBLE we won't go to war, but we NEED to do something. Some scientists are convinced the situation is drastic and are proclaiming that we need to radically change our economy and way of life. It is certainly their right to do that, as long as they are not saying that there view is the only possible way to look at the science. In fact the media is NOT covering what you actually suggest they do. There are numerous state federal and private collaborations studying the various economic social and political options including a wide range of expertise, including scientists, economists and public policy experts who are trying to develop broad based approaches based on real science. I just met someone tonight who is going to work at Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, which is doing great work in this area, but the media is focused on being "fair" about climate change, so the groups like this doing the real work don;t get any real exposure. the media doesn't get into the details because it is still milking the "conflict" about the science. -
huntjanin at 14:47 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
A heretical comment: In American frontier history, there's a fine story about how, when a 19th century mountain man (beaver trapper) rode away from a campsite, he did not notice that his "possible sack" (a small sack contained flint, steel and other items essential for survival in the wilderness) had fallen off his saddle and lay in the dust. His friends at the campsite saw it fall, but said nothing. When a visiting Englishman asked them why, the answer simply was: "He'll find soon enough." By the same token, don't you think that the deniers will find out "soon enough" even if we say nothing more about the perils of global warming? -
MattJ at 13:33 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
thingadonta #4: It may be true that the press is reacting to the policy, not the science, but aren't you missing the point? They are reacting to the policy because they do not accept or understand the science that lies behind it. That science is: AGW is real, it is a real problem, we must act NOW to keep it from being an absolute disaster for our descendants. In fact, now is already rather late: we should have acted in the 80s. Once this is understood, then the policies proposed no longer seem so very outrageous. On the contrary: they are all inexpensive and even mild compared to the outrageous high cost (politically and economically) our descendants will pay should we continue to do nothing to mitigate AGW. -
Daniel Bailey at 12:51 PM on 1 August 201010 key climate indicators all point to the same finding: global warming is unmistakable
Re Geo Guy at 09:40 AM on 1 August, 2010, who said: "Daniel # 105 - see my comment above. That argument is predicated on the assumption that solar output was significantly lower than current levels which I believe is incorrect." Dude, I have to agree with Doug Bostrom (#112 above): dissing not only the physics of greenhouse gases AND the physics of stellar atmospheres because you don't like the results? Crowley and Berner looked into the issue of CO2, temperatures and solar output in the Ordovician in their paper here. Another good resource on the changes in the solar constant over time can be found here. Instincts, a willingness to learn and a normal level of skepticism are good things. I've seen you make some good insights when trying to explain your positions in previous posts. But your response above was...disappointing. You're capable of better than that. The Yooper -
thingadonta at 12:42 PM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
re #1 : "Notice how the media coverage and public perception percentages are almost identical?" I would suggest that most media coverage supposedly not supporting the 'consensus', is actually questioning public policy relating to it, not the science. The disconnect between the 'consensus' and media coverage suggests there is something currently fishy with the 'consensus', not the media; and most of this probably relates to public policy issues which is often intermingled within the 'consensus', rather than the science itself. Part of the problem almost certainly lies in the distinction between science, and public policy-ie what 'ought' to be done about something. This is a value judgement, and technically, science can't make decisions about value judgements, yet many scientists within the 'consensus' often report that it can, and betray their own value judements. 'Science says' we should' do this' or 'we should do that'. The 'should' often reflects people's relative values, and more often than not, advocates use only that branch of science which supports their value position. Their 'science' is often correct/well-established, its just that often it is not the only relevant data. This is especially the case, for example, in land tenure issues, where an area may have competing values and interests: eg "the science says this area should be set aside for National Park". This is not a scientific statement, it is a value judgement, which depends on relative community values, and a range of datasets-social, economic, and conservation/environmental. It is essentuially the same with climate change science and public policy. Climate change policy must take into account social, economic, and environmenal/'natural' science data, in conjunction with relative community values. Part of the role of the media is to examine the relationships between the above: socio-economic data, environmental data, and relative community values, to report on what is largely a political process. Some scientists don't understand this process, and essentially want to subvert and corrupt it for their own narrow, specialised, interests. I'm pretty sure the statistics given in the above arcticle fail to make the proper distinction also; there is a difference between what the science says, and what policies ought/ought not, to be put in place. This probably largley explains the disconnect between the 'consensus' and the media. -
Cornelius Breadbasket at 11:49 AM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
An incredibly revealing and useful graphic - thank you. I think (hope) that the wave of denial is now on the wane although my experience is restricted to the UK. News stories like this may be helping. -
Rob Painting at 11:24 AM on 1 August 2010Visually depicting the disconnect between climate scientists, media and the public
Yes, the mainstream media coverage, therein lies the problem. Notice how the media coverage and public perception percentages are almost identical?. -
kdkd at 11:12 AM on 1 August 201010 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
johnd #37 The carbon fingerprinting in parts relates to the proportion of C14 isotope in the atmosphere showing that the increase in carbon content of the atmosphere is caused by the burning of fossil fuel (which is C14 depleted due to its age). The second part of the "fingerprinting" which is more a model prediction borne out by observation, is that the increase in night time temperatures should be greater than the increase in day time temperature (solar effects would be opoposite to this). These are long term measurable things. We don't have the same radioisotope measurement capability for the water cycle, and the water cycle is probably more complex than the carbon cycle. -
Doug Bostrom at 11:00 AM on 1 August 201010 key climate indicators all point to the same finding: global warming is unmistakable
I believe the statement regarding solar variation in the Ordovician is simply a statement of convenience and bears no credibility. Be careful. The sun is a main sequence star; output during the Ordovician is predicted to have been some 3.5-5% less than during the present. Taking on a whole other realm of science (solar physics) to make an argument against C02 as a significant greenhouse gas is going to be difficult. -
barry1487 at 10:35 AM on 1 August 201010 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
Thanks for the replies. Let's see if I have this right... There is currently an imbalance between the amount of energy coming from the sun, and the amount of energy being radiated by the Earth/atmosphere, because CO2 increase has prevented some long-wave radiation escaping to space. If we were to freeze all CO2 emissions today, global temperatures would increase for a while until the atmosphere was in radiative balance with the incoming solar energy. With photons zipping in every direction at the speed of light, being absorbed and re-emitted by gas molecules in the atmosphere, why isn't equilibrium established quickly? Is it that the surface is slower to warm, thus keeping the atmosphere cooler and out of radiative balance with solar energy?Response: You've pretty much got it right. The reason why the climate takes a little while to return to equilibrium is because the oceans have a great deal of thermal inertia - as our climate is accumulating heat due to the energy imbalance, it takes a while for the oceans to warm up to the point where our planet is once again radiating enough energy to match the incoming sunlight. -
johnd at 10:31 AM on 1 August 201010 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
I find it interesting that water vapour and clouds are not mentioned as being measured fingerprints. Irrespective of what CO2 levels are currently doing, AGW depends on the amplifying effect of water vapour. Is their absence acknowledgment that perhaps water vapour and clouds may not be part of the human fingerprint? With regards to solar activity perhaps the most relevant measure is the AA index which tracks the solar coronal magnetic field strength.
Response: I could only fit 10 fingerprints in that picture. I'm now planning a sequel, "10 more human fingerprints on climate change". -
Doug Bostrom at 09:55 AM on 1 August 2010The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Robert Wray just recently did a nice post here on SkS on "how ice sheets lose ice." Worth a look in reference to John Russell's questions. -
Geo Guy at 09:40 AM on 1 August 201010 key climate indicators all point to the same finding: global warming is unmistakable
Chris # 104 - I post two graphs, the first is at: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/PageMill_Images/image354_lg.gif ..where CO2 from Antarctica ice core is compared to plant CO2 as a proxy....so in my view the plot is about CO2 concentrations as deduced from plant stomata. The second graph I posted was to the CO2 vs temp graph which I agree has nothing to do with plant stomata. The two graphs were posted for two purposes. The first to show that there are valid arguments to support the contention that historical CO2 concentrations were higher than those determined from ice core data. The second was to show that over geological time a plot of temp vs CO2 indicates there is not a close correlation between the two, albeit there are periods where a correlation appears to exist. To me this suggests other factors are at play when it comes to the earth's temperature. I read the link regarding the Ordovician and I take exception to the statement "During the Ordovician, solar output was much lower than current levels." On what basis was this statement made? If you read further, no mention is made about solar output. Given that it is only in the last 40 years of so that we have been able to measure the sun's radiation and that proxies for those measurements go back to only about 1400, I believe the statement regarding solar variation in the Ordovician is simply a statement of convenience and bears no credibility. With regards to my argument on thermodynamics, it certainly does apply. Most undergraduate courses when I was at university had a simple lab assignment which was to take a set volume of ice, measure the heat needed to melt that ice and then take the resulting water, heat it with the same amount of energy that it took to melt the ice. In the end, the temperature that was reached was 140 F. When you deal with glacial ice, a lot more energy is needed to melt that ice. An uptick of less than 1 degree C over 100 years will not, in my view, provide enough energy to melt glaciers such as Greenland. I would contend the culprit is the initial sun radiation that hots the earth and not the reflected radiation. Daniel # 105 - see my comment above. That argument is predicated on the assumption that solar output was significantly lower than current levels which I believe is incorrect. KR # 107 - while I accept some of what you have posted, as you know using a mean or average temperature as many climate scientists seen to use, is very sensitive to outlier measurements. If you investigate global temperatures over the time period 1900 to the present, there were a number of instances where warm anomalies coincided with el Nino as demonstrated in the graph. However there does seem to be a close correlation between periods of el Nino activity and higher global temperatures. In order to have a greater degree of confidences that the warming is due to rising CO2, data sets should be filtered to exclude the el Nino effect. I do not believe that they have done that. http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GlobalElNino.htm ..my apologies to the moderator..I answered a post that was in response to an earlier post. I don't dispute the contention that the earth seems to be heating up..I've posted that earlier in this blog. What I do contend is that the science does not support the contention that the increase in global temperatures are driven by increases in atmospheric CO2. I will post my theory regarding the source of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere in the near future. It is something I want to put together off line and to get it down to a minimum of words so I don't hog a lot of space here. -
MattJ at 09:06 AM on 1 August 2010The four sides model for improving climate communication
At the risk of sounding too much like someone from the Aspen Institute, I will say that we all have a lot more to learn from Aristotle's "On Rhetoric" than from this Schulz von Thun. The latter's "four sides" model is inappropriate for the problem at hand for many reasons, but mainly for the following two: 1) when von Thun is described as "expert at _inter-personal_ communication", that means exactly what it sounds like: his model is more appropriate for describing (mis)communication between husband and wife or father and children. I doubt he even really meant it for policy debate. 2) the model confuses under four heads, notions that are really different. Perhaps Marchand was admitting as much, when he said, "the channels are never so clearly defined". But the confusion is unnecessary, and wholly absent from Aristotle's classic on the subject. So, for example, his channel labedled'appeal' is simply wrong: the main sense of 'appeal' we have to be concerned about in these debates is a rather different sense of the word, namely, "what is the (emotional) appeal to the listener of the argument?" This is something that Aristotle analyzed very well in http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/rhetoric.html. The authors of the various articles on Skeptical science are very good at presenting the facts, or, as Aristotle put it, at the Dialectic, but not so good at Dialectic's counterpart, Rhetoric. It is high time to address this imbalance. -
CBW at 09:01 AM on 1 August 2010The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
dansat says: "I have a tiny vial of water with me (Still travelling toward home) that was from ice at the bottom of the core. The water is from snow that fell in Greenland 150K years ago!" This is proof that Greenland ice loss isn't being caused by global warming. The real cause is all these scientists who are trying to get rich off of global warming carrying the ice away themselves. -
Ken Lambert at 08:47 AM on 1 August 201010 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
muoncounter #35 You are right about the 30% of TSI reflected out to space. I realized the error after posting and shutting dowm for the night. The figures I quoted should reduce from 1400 E20 Joules to approx 1000 E20 Joules, and the time from 22 years to about 15 years. Still significant I would have thought. -
chris at 08:28 AM on 1 August 2010Plant stomata show higher and more variable CO2 levels
David Middleton at 07:00 AM on 1 August, 2010 GeoCarb is a (very nice) model with 10 million year resolution. I don't see how you can use this to say that much about what true [CO2] levels were in the past at high resolution. It certainly doesn't "trump" direct measurements. Plant stomata frequency estimates of past [CO2] have large uncertainties (e.g. +/- 30-60 ppm; see a recent analysis of reconstruction uncertainties in Betula nana leaves). I think these studies are fine, and useful for estimating broad atmospheric [CO2] levels (or changes in [CO2] levels) in the deeper past, but one should accept that these are not precise measures. The NASA AIRS comparison is misleading since these are generally shown as snapshots. If one averages a full years worth of AIRS data, then the yearly averaged difference between polar and equatorial (say) [CO2] is only a few ppm. It's not reasonable to compare AIRS snapshots with ice core data (or stomatal data for that matter!) which is significantly temporally averaged. Obviously the mechanism for sealing off atmospheric samples in ice cap or glacial firn results in a considerable multiyear averaging of the atmospheric [CO2]. In the high resolution Law Dome core the averaging is smallish, whereas in the deep Antarctic cores the averaging may encompass a large number of years (can't remember off hand, but this may be a hundred years or more???). However considering the high resolution Law Dome data and the last couple of thousand years, I don't see any basis for concluding that the ice core data is biased low as you suggest. Yes, it's smoothed (it's something like a 10 year running mean); but (just like contemporary [CO2] variation), we expect rather low amplitude variability in [CO2] at high resolution. Yes, the natural variability (likely largely ENSO-related, with perhaps some significant wildfire variability) encompassing a few ppm will have been smoothed out. But it's not reasonable to think that we are missing large jumps and falls in [CO2], apart from anything else, because largish non-ENSO-related increased [CO2] levels take a long time to drop, and so they should stil be observed in cores. In any case if we're not seeing them (i.e. high resolution, large amplitude jumps and falls in [CO2]) during the last 50 years of very high resolution measurement, what is the basis for expecting that these occurred in the past? Incidentally, I don't understand the reference to "skeptics" in your last paragraph. These guys/gals are just scientists working to improve their methodologies and obtain insight into the past. I don't think one should adopt the false notion that science is composed of groups of people that have one view of the science and others that are "skeptics". If the group of people you refer to were "trying to debunk AGW" they would be wasting their careers. Science simply doesn't work like that... -
michael sweet at 07:51 AM on 1 August 201010 key climate indicators all point to the same finding: global warming is unmistakable
BP, You are arguing that scientists like James Hansen are too concerned about CO2 that they are ignoring black carbon by citing a paper by James Hansen about the problem of black carbon. To me that is a contradiction in terms. Dr. Hansen is very active in promoting lowering CO2 in the atmosphere. He also says that we should lower black carbon immediately as it is easier to control. Your suggestion that scientists ignore other issues while they promote control of CO2 is simply false. A glance at the IPCC report will show that it includes many sources of AGW, but CO2 is the largest. We do not yet debate the best ways of limiting global warming here on SS. When we do we will consider all sources of warming. -
J Bowers at 07:15 AM on 1 August 2010The four sides model for improving climate communication
Re. 1 dcruzuri I think there's a No.7, which is different to No.5 or 6, and I come across more and more often: Those who believe climate change and temperature increase is beneficial for mankind, CO2 emissions should continue to increase as it will benefit crop output and therefore feed the hungry, and curbing CO2 emissions is tantamount to genocide.
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