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Peter Hogarth at 06:20 AM on 20 July 2010Part Three: Response to Goddard
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 20:46 PM on 19 July, 2010 Thanks for the references. Considering Wingham 2006, I suggest you update this and perhaps revise your opinions. For example see what Wingham says a mere 1 year later in Shepherd and Wingham 2007 “data show that Antarctica and Greenland are each losing mass overall. Our best estimate of their combined imbalance is about 125 gigatons per year of ice, enough to raise sea level by 0.35 millimeters per year. This is only a modest contribution to the present rate of sea-level rise of 3.0 millimeters per year. However, much of the loss from Antarctica and Greenland is the result of the flow of ice to the ocean from ice streams and glaciers, which has accelerated over the past decade”. Then you may be interested in what these authors have to say in 2008, 2009 and 2010. I also suggest that if you read “CO2 Science” you will gain a very biased view. As for Fettweis 2008, again have a look at what this author contributes one year later in Hanna 2009, “However, there is a striking correspondence between ocean warming and dramatic accelerations and retreats of key Greenland outlet glaciers in both southeast and southwest Greenland during the late 1990s and early 2000s” . Then most recently in Fettweiss 2010 (and associated poster) we have “Finally, both model and satellite agree to confirm the acceleration of the GrIS surface melting since 30 years.” The losses modelled by Fettweis in 2008 for the 1930s have already been exceeded in reality as shown here, and losses appear set to continue. -
tobyjoyce at 05:11 AM on 20 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Off topic, but I quoted Stephen Schneider above, since I am reading his book "Science as a Contact Sport". I am saddened to read on Climate Progress that he has just died. He was a distinguished man and a great scientist. Remembering Stephen Schneider -
JMurphy at 04:41 AM on 20 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Berényi Péter wrote : "Therefore it is not true that science came first and led to inevitable conclusions, just the opposite. There were the conclusions stated by a cultural anthropologist and climate science was asked to support them. That's what happened." Like seemingly all so-called skeptics, you see something which is very, very different from what anyone else seems to see - certainly a lot different than what I see and I notice that others feel the same. You see a call to try to understand what effects man will have on the atmosphere (because, as you quoted NAS, no-one knew for sure at that time what the future held), with a determination to decide in advance what the result of those studies was to be ? I'm sure we see the same words but you have interpreted them in such a way that I don't recognise as being the same sentences you posted. How do you do that ? How does so-called skepticism make one person see something so at variance with everyone else ? I'm baffled. -
JMurphy at 04:35 AM on 20 July 2010Does partial scientific knowledge mean we shouldn't act?
johnd wrote : "I referenced the sources of the information I posted previously, sufficient for anyone to with a bit of nouse to follow up. Here is a link that might make it even easier for you." Hmm. So you follow your previous post which had no links, with a post that links to statistics to do with fires up to 2003 ? Right. You do know that it was the 2009 fires which are claimed to be the worst, don't you ? How does your link argue against that ? Once again, you see what you want to see and believe that you know better. Fine, we can all see. -
johnd at 03:50 AM on 20 July 2010Does partial scientific knowledge mean we shouldn't act?
JMurphy at 08:31 AM, the trap many people such as yourself fall into when comparisons are being made between natural disaster events, fires and droughts for example, is that often the comparison is very subjective, led by media coverage and politicians who both focus on the emotional impact of such events for their own purposes. There is no single criteria to which such events can be simply reduced to as a means of making an objective comparison, duration, extent, magnitude, human cost, infrastructure loss, economic impact etc. all are highly variable and not easy to weight accordingly. Terms such as 1 in 1000 year drought is such a subjective description seized upon by politicians and etched into peoples minds to serve a purpose, but under closer scrutiny the data is simply not available to justify such a label. Bushfires, because of the emotional impact, are even more prone to the same subjective analysis, even amongst the authorities who often have their own barrows to push in a politically charged landscape. As with any comparisons, it is essential to compare apples with apples. Only some things can be compared in absolute terms, most have to be compared pro-rata due to changing circumstances, especially when dealing with the impact upon the population as a whole. When comparing the fires of 1851 to later fires, only the area burnt, the impact on the landscape, can be compared in absolute terms. Thus the 5 million hectares, one quarter of Victoria, is without doubt the greatest area burnt in Victoria's settled history. I challenge to to show otherwise. Impacts upon the population, including the number of people who perished have to be compared pro-rata. In 1851, Victoria's population was about 97,489, and 12 people perished in the February fires, or one person for every 8124 residents. In 2009, the population was 5,340,000 and 173 people perished, or one person for every 30,867 residents. Similar comparisons can be found for dwellings, stock losses, economic impact, etc., however it is clear, that for the population at the time, not only was the area burnt by far the greatest, but the impact upon the average person whether measured in human terms or economic terms, was far greater than any more recent fires. Many people interested in climate change seem to have a fascination with extrapolating data, perhaps you might like to extrapolate the 1851 statistics to 2009. The problem is that many people are not even aware of such events in our earlier history until it is bought to their attention. Many appear to believe the world only began when official records also began. Even though complete statistics were compiled at the time, they are are all but forgotten about, even by the authorities whose collective memories are determined by what has been recorded since the formal beginnings of their particular institution. Heaven forbid also that their views may be biased, not only by the media attention, but also by their ongoing need to secure funding such that the bureaucracy they are building can be further extended, the CFA being one such example. I referenced the sources of the information I posted previously, sufficient for anyone to with a bit of nouse to follow up. Here is a link that might make it even easier for you. The 'Black Thursday' fires of 6 February 1851 in Victoria, burnt the largest area (approximately 5 million ha) in European-recorded history and killed more than one million sheep and thousands of cattle as well as taking the lives of 12 people (CFA 2003a; DSE 2003b). For more detailed research you will have to visit the State Library and search the archives of the day available. -
michael sweet at 02:58 AM on 20 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
CBW and Chriscanaris: I live in Florida (USA). I suggest that if the sea level rises enough in 100 years that Miami, Fort Lauderdale and the rest of eastern Florida have to be evacuated that is "catastrophic" for me. This is millions of residents from Miami alone. We do not have to worry about Bangladesh (or Tuvalu, which is substantially gone today). Current mainstream forecasts are 1-2 meters of sea level rise by 2100 (90 years). This is substantially more than was forecast in the 2007 IPCC report. With 2 meters sea level rise, Miami will have to be evacuated. Of course we can all move to North Dakota. Chris, what do you think? I am 50 years old. If the action has to occur in my lifetime we are more likely OK. Too bad for my high school students. I also note that heat stress has caused severe crop failure this year in Russia, but maybe it would have been record heat without AGW.. -
CBW at 02:17 AM on 20 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
chriscanaris @78: "It can only radiate as far as the internal boundaries of the thermos whose reflective surfaces would prevent further outward radiation." That's irrelevant to the discussion at hand. It doesn't matter if the radiation travels a millimeter or a light-year, the plug radiates just the same, based only on its temperature. "However, if the iron bar were placed in a vacuum, the added heat from the inserted plug cause more net heat to radiate into the vacuum." You're making the same mistake as RSVP, and confusing radiation with heat flow. A box at temperature T radiates the same whether the plug is inside or not, or whether the box is in vacuum, inside a perfect insulator, or underwater. @79: "It depends on your point of view." I agree 100%. That's my point. You have to define what you mean by "catastrophic" or it is meaningless. That's why the deniers' attempts to recast AGW as "Catastrophic AGW" is so disingenuous--they're trying to build a straw man that they can then shoot down with arguments about how AGW will be good for the (~60,000) residents of Greenland. To call something catastrophic you have to define what you consider to be a catastrophe and then, and only then, can you discuss the probability of it happening. -
Bern at 00:46 AM on 20 July 2010Skeptical Science now an Android app
What Bioluminescence said! QR codes can make life much easier if you're trying to get a URL into your phone - save a bit of typing. Anyway, I've barely tried out the app, but it looks good so far - thanks to the folks at Shine! Their efforts are much appreciated. -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 23:55 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
“Climate science is a Pandora’s box, out of which come primary questions. These questions, which are fundamental, cannot be un-asked; we asked what would happen to the climate if we artificially increased the proportions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the answer is important.” I agreed. For example, rate of temperature changes, and effects - including ecosystems. In Poland, on the Discovery Word was repeated once more movies of LIA (2005)and “Mean on Earth” (2009). Professor of Earth Sciences, Peter deMenocal (Columbia University) in the second film, says: "Imagine that (ie if the last Neanderthal died) following H. E. - D. - O.; occurred regularly every 5-6 thousand. years, with increasing vehemence - unimaginable speed: over 10 years the Earth's temperature changed suddenly circa 10 degrees. During a single generation, the climate changed abruptly and completely [... - now we can "count" on barely one and a few tenths of a degree at the time of our lives] ... " P.S. I recommend the latest work - deMenocal - Africa on the Edge, 2008: my conclusion from reading this work: it's not cool ALWAYS warming increases the area of deserts throughout the world - not only in Africa. Then, in the movie "Mean on Earth," followed by "rolling over" the science of 180 degrees: it is cool and more violent (do not know the reasons) led to the extinction of Neanderthal and megafauna (most likely we do not met a Neanderthal?), Man (culture Clovis) here just a little "help" ... ... And so many lines of evidence was proving, that: the Holocene warming killed of “our cousin”... " (write books, moreover, so still), eh ... It saved the Eemian, which is on the way to total annihilation, mankind. Although it is very difficult to compare, we can conclude that the time: never, even now, humanity does not grow so fast. In the film, the LIA, in turn, Professor deMenocal says - “We do not know what are the possibilities of hidden cycles of nature ... LIA was a time of climate instability, unexpected changes in regularity without - seemingly - logic.” - James Massachele, Rutgers University: "From 1000 to 1400 the world lived in an atmosphere of 2 to 4 degrees warmer than in the dark Middle Ages. MWP has come - the time of PROSPERITY (...)." - Thomas Gale Moore, Stamford University: "Crops were good, faster in the spring dry up wetlands, disappeared the mosquitoes do not spread malaria and other diseases have been fewer.” Maritime climate prevailed in Europe. “It is better distributed rainfall in the season guarantee high yields. During warming, the number of peasants in Europe increased from 40 to 60 million. Russia, China, North America - have seen similar changes." "The French nobility was displeased that the English wine market displace their products ..." "There is a theory that the Vikings gave the misleading name of Greenland to attract settlers - in fact, they were surprised [...] by the lush greenery sprouting fjords." - Prof. Henri Grissino-Mayer, University of Tennessee: "There were growing green plants and even trees - the name may correspond to reality." - Rie Oldenburg Narsaq museum curator: "fine grass grow even in the high mountains - Greenland must have been a PARADISE for them. [...!!!]". - Lloyd D. Keigwin: "LIA has changed the lives of many societies. New York Bay Harword frozen for 5 weeks. Eskimos sailed up to Scotland, half a meter of snow fell in New England in June and July, there has been a year, which is remembered as the year without a summer. Cooling changed the course of history.” "LIA is part of a repeated cycle - a phenomenon which may be repeated. Belies that the climate is something permanent. Humanity is incredibly sensitive to even small temperature drops. " - Richard Seager Universyty Columbia: "In the early fourteenth century, cooled off in just 10 years. The temperature was about 2 degrees lower than today's temperatures. " - Teofilo F. Ruiz - medieval historian from UCLA. At the beginning of the LIA, from 1315 - 1320 the year in 6 years 1.5 million people died of starvation in Europe. During the first five years in the spring occurred a long time, weeks, continuous rain, then floods and other violent phenomena in unprecedented scale, and after that period: long drought. Between 1371 and 1791 in France there were 111 famines.” - “Cattle: sheep and cows, have remained in the stables of over 6 months. Cows, after such winters were so weak, that it was out of the factory to pasture” - Finn Lynge Norse Grenland Expert. - Prof. Wallace S. Broecker Columbia University - “... a study of carbon-14 show that initially 80% of the food came from the land of Vikings. LIA harbored mainly in the sea. But when the sea started to freeze and farther cod began to move south ...” Or even from these facts, not important questions arise - "... what would happen ... "- clean "denial’s - denier camp” ? -
tobyjoyce at 23:36 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Berenyi Peter wrote: "Yes. Don't forget the the cooling world, about to cause epic crop failures in the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in ten years with soaring food prices and world wide famine." The man who made the cooling prediction was Stephen Schneider, though it was somewhat less apocalyptic. In his recent book he writes (p. 43): "By 1973, I was convinced that the Rasool-Scheidner calculation couldn't be right ... in my opinion the best guess of climate sensitivity was between 1.5 and 3.5 degrees Celsius, which I published in the Journal of Atmospheric Science in a paper called "On the Carbon Dioxide Climate Confusion"." So by 1975, scientists knew that the global cooling prediction was based on false premises. So like good scientists, they altered their predictions in accordance with the developing facts. It may have taken a bit longer to percolate through the media, but that is not "science". There was plenty of other reason to be concerned about the Soviet Union in the early 1970s. Communist agriculture having failed miserably, the Soviets were buying up grain all around the world, driving up grain prices. Another tip in Soviet grain production would worsen things considerably. These problems eased over time, along with concerns about nuclear winter, another worry of the later 1970s, when there were those arguing that a nuclear war was "winnable". And who exactly is plunging the world into economic chaos? BP, isn't that a bit apocalyptic? The longer the delay before reasonable action is taken the greater the chaos will be. The delayers and deniers are the guilty ones, the same ones who tried to prevent action on ozone layer depletion. -
CBDunkerson at 23:02 PM on 19 July 2010Skeptical Science now an Android app
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay! -
Daved Green at 22:21 PM on 19 July 2010Irregular Climate podcast 8: Journalismgate, prawngate and rock n roll
Arkadiusz sorry but I didnt understand that post at all it was like when you tranlate something from japanese to english , srry no offence intended . -
Alexandre at 22:08 PM on 19 July 2010Skeptical Science now an Android app
Does any of those run on a Blueberry? -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 21:22 PM on 19 July 2010Irregular Climate podcast 8: Journalismgate, prawngate and rock n roll
Assume that warms all the time, that the current year will be the warmest. How great it will change, or sometimes less than the possible error? While the year 2005, 2010 will be warmer from 1998? How great and "terrible" is the difference? Sorry for “plagiarism” - I repeat the "M" word - from one of the discussions during the meeting with him ... -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 20:59 PM on 19 July 2010Part Three: Response to Goddard
Please also about possible "errors proven" - at work Wingham 2006 - is that the allegations do not mean that it is proven. ... and for van den Broek I recommend it: "the GRACE data time series is still very short and these results must be considered as preliminary since we cannot exclude that the apparent trends discussed in this study only reflect interannual fluctuations." -
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 20:46 PM on 19 July 2010Part Three: Response to Goddard
@Jeff T As for: “... the earth's rotation rate ...” - The impact of this phenomenon (established by Stone - 1978) for the oceanic transport of energy, is the subject of great and “heated” debate. @Robert Way “... therefore significant ice losses on the Continent cannot occur.” - the same argument is still the scientists use and the Arctic - on Greenland. A huge number of scientific works created in recent years on what is happening and what will happen to the Arctic and Antarctic ice. Among the many, I chose two "cherry" - against the thesis that the melting of glaciers can quickly (by the end of XXI century) to be a problem, only two "cherry", but a very “sweet” and “handsome”. Wingham ... also, however, writes that (et al. - 2006 - quotes by “CO2 science”): "... analyzed 1.2 x 108 European remote sensing satellite altimeter echoes to determine the changes in volume of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2003," which survey, in their words, "covers 85% of the East Antarctic ice sheet and 51% of the West Antarctic ice sheet," which together comprise "72% of the grounded ice sheet." In doing so, they found that "overall, the data, corrected for ISOSTATIC REBOUND, show the ice sheet growing at 5 ± 1 mm per year." To calculate the ice sheet's change in mass, however, "requires knowledge of the density at which the volume changes have occurred," and when the researchers' best estimates of regional differences in this parameter were used, they found that "72% of the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining 27 ± 29 Gt per year, a sink of ocean mass sufficient to lower global sea levels by 0.08 mm per year. [...]" " This net extraction of water from the global ocean, according to Wingham et al., occurs because "mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. [...]" ... and here I would gladly went to prove that the vast majority of the 6 m more in the Eemian- Sangamon sea level is: „ISOSTATIC REBOUND”, but I am afraid, that J. C. again ... Greenland: The Cryosphere Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries., Fettweis et al., 2008: “Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipitation anomaly. This multiple regression is then used to empirically estimate the GrIS SMB since 1900 from climatological time series. The projected SMB changes in the 21st century are investigated with the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s and corresponds to a zero SMB rate. The AOGCMs project that the SMB rate of the 1930s would be common at the end of 2100 [!!!]. The temperature would be higher than in the 1930s but the increase of accumulation in the 21st century would partly offset the acceleration of surface melt due to the temperature increase. [...]” Yes, yes, I do not forget that: “However, these assumptions are based on an empirical multiple regression only validated for recent/current climatic conditions, and the accuracy and time homogeneity of the data sets and AOGCM results used in these estimations constitute a large uncertainty.”, ... but ... -
scaddenp at 20:37 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
"The world of science is no different from the outside world - a mixture of hard working honest individuals, mediocrities, scoundrels, and all shades in between." True to a degree, but I'd say more regard for truth than average because learning a science discipline requires learning how not to fool yourself. As to your "system", I've heard of those ploys in the US academic system where apparently there are administrators who blindly look at citation indices but I wonder if it still works. However, I cannot see how you make your name in science without truly publishing something that is cited in honesty by those who you have never met. A me-too paper will never do this. -
chris1204 at 18:46 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
scaddenp @ 80: If you want to make your mark, you have to get something published that will be cited. Lots of papers that no-one cites, gets you nowhere. Easy - you cite your own papers and get others in your lab to cite them in turn. Alternatively, you submit the same research project with minor variations on the theme to multiple journals (you're not supposed to do this but I've seen it happen with my own eyes). The world of science is no different from the outside world - a mixture of hard working honest individuals, mediocrities, scoundrels, and all shades in between. -
James Wight at 18:43 PM on 19 July 2010It cooled mid-century
John, recently on Irregular Climate you mentioned that in the mid-20th century, although the daily maximum temperature decreased, the daily minimum temperature increased. Can you add links to that evidence here? Thank you.Response: Always making work for me, aren't you James? Here's the original blog post about daily minimum temperatures increasing during mid-century cooling. I've integrated the blog post into the above info. Thanks for the suggestion (your ideas while making work for me are always good ideas). -
kdkd at 18:28 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
BP #90 I suggest that you steer away from social commentary, and stick to the technical sounding stuff which is less easy to see through. "As for the other problems [e.g. acid rain, and ozone depletion] mentioned, they were solved by eliminating the Soviet Empire (including the GDR) with its unregulated industrial emissions. That is, at that time, it was enough to plung half of the world into economic and social chaos." This is astoundingly incorrect and refuted from things I remember from School level geography lessons in the 1980s. I fail to see how the collapse of the USSR could have solved the North American acid rain problem, or the Scandinavian problem for that matter (prevailing winds over Europe are Westerly, it was largely Western European emissions causing the problems in Scandinavia. I suppose that Soviet acid rain would end up in the boreal forests of Siberia, not a place I learned much about in school. As for the ozone hole, this required large scale international regulation, just like solving the CO2 problem requires. Any reduction in production of CFCs in the USSR due to economic collapse would have only had a small impact relative to American, Western European and Asian production. Thanks for the giggles though ;) -
quokka at 18:15 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
#66 Marcus. Questions about wind power are not confined to NIMBYism. The big issue with wind turbines is extreme variability of output which is not necessarily spacialy smoothed - ie if the wind is not blowing here, it may not be blowing there either. They need to be backed by something else. Hydro is good if available. Otherwise the main option currently is open cycle gas turbines which are less efficient than CCGT. The saving of CO2 emissions may be less in reality than might be thought because of the higher inefficiency in ramping up and down the fossil fuel burners that back them. There are some good charts of Australian wind farm output here: OZ-ENERGY-ANALYSIS.ORG The project is developing models of the Australian electricity grid to determine the feasibility/limits of wind power. It should be worth following developments. -
James Wight at 18:08 PM on 19 July 2010Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
Here’s a link to the final and most comprehensive inquiry: the Muir Russell report. -
Anne-Marie Blackburn at 18:04 PM on 19 July 2010Skeptical Science now an Android app
To use the QR code, install the Barcode Scanner app (free app in the Shopping category). Then go to the AppBrain Skeptical Science page and click on (QR, more) (next to Facebook, Twitter, etc.). A square with the matrix code will then be visible. Use Barcode Scanner to scan it, which will take you straight to the app. Install it, et voila! -
Berényi Péter at 18:02 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
#81 adelady at 11:24 AM on 19 July, 2010 In 1975 what were the atmospheric problems that we knew about? Acid rain, particulates, the effect of CFCs on the ozone layer spring to my mind. Yes. Don't forget the the cooling world, about to cause epic crop failures in the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in ten years with soaring food prices and world wide famine. That problem was solved indeed, at least for the time being, even if it is not known how. And whaddya know? We've dealt with those without plunging the world into economic and social chaos. As for the other problems you have mentioned, they were solved by eliminating the Soviet Empire (including the GDR) with its unregulated industrial emissions. That is, at that time, it was enough to plung half of the world into economic and social chaos. But all is not lost. In the meantime communist China with even nastier emissions was built up as the monster of the day by exporting our jobs to state sponsored slave labor and our pollutions to communist burocratic regulators there. -
Bern at 17:23 PM on 19 July 2010Skeptical Science now an Android app
Downloaded & installed (via AppBrain, using their QR code read with Barcode Scanner - don't you love modern technology?) Will definitely come in handy!Response: Using the QR whoosy with the Barcode whatsits? For the sake of an Android newbie, don't suppose you could explain in a bit more detail this process? Is it a matter of following the AppBrain link while browsing on the Android phone? -
tobyjoyce at 17:17 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Berényi Péter: "In fact ACC and urgent need for political action was the starting point and scientists were recrutited to serve this end. You should respect history." In "Science as a Contact Sport", Stephen Schneider gives an account of his recruitment by Margaret Mead into the sinister conspiracy to use global warming to undermine the American Way of Life.... ... except it was much more innocuous. In 1975, Mead was President of the AAAS, interested in a broad range of issues. One of the things she did was hold a conference called "The Atmosphere: Endangered and Endangering". The star of the show was James Lovelock and his newly-published Gaia hypothesis. Lovelock argued for the resilience of life, Schneider and James Holdren were the "Young Turks" pointing out that even a large proportion of the human race could suffer from climate catasprophes. Schneider quotes some helpful advice Mead gives him in the book. He tells the story of the scientific detour into "global cooling". A very great amount of what we now call "climate science" was already being donein 1975(data gathering, modeling), and Mead had only a transient (but important) influence. BP will have to do better than a couple of speeches to prove that particular conspiracy theory. The problem with conspiracy theorists is the less evidence they find, the more convinced they are about the cunning malevolence of their adversaries. -
gpwayne at 16:53 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Berényi Péter:In fact ACC and urgent need for political action was the starting point and scientists were recrutited to serve this end. You should respect history.
Your argument mirrors those who claim Gore started it all to line his pockets, or Thatcher kicked it off at the UN as part of her strategy to strangle the mining unions. And as Muoncounter points out, the investigations at that time - which encompassed particulates and other forms of pollution - were as interested in the potential cooling effects as heating. And why do you ignore the actual history of climate change science - some significant dates I listed in comment #2? Before patronising me, perhaps some research might be in order: Spencer Weart's history of climate change science -
kdkd at 16:40 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Just to add my 2c to BP's rather strange comment about the alleged Margaret Mead conspiracy (appart from the offensive insinuation that social scientists have nothing of value to contribute to society - many objects and institutions you use on a daily basis demonstrate that this is not the case) This just confirms my preconception that if you press a climate sceptic on their ideas, no matter how superficially plausible they seem, keep at it long enough, and the ideas will degenerate into a frustrated mass of crackpot conspiracy theory in the end. -
villabolo at 16:09 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
RSVP at 05:22 AM on 19 July, 2010 "Taking a red hot iron plug inside an "ideal" insulator such as a glass thermos with reflective surfaces. Does it radiate? Or put the same plug into an iron box at the same temperature. Does it radiate in there?" "The answer of course is no. . . ." * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * If this has been posted before or if it's obvious I'm a non-professional, my sincere apologies. I'll give my answer in Plainspeak. Concerning the thermos, with a reflective glass surface, I can think of two reasons why it should radiate. 1) The glass has to be connected to the rest of the thermos. Therefore, conduction. 2) The glass is not a perfect reflective device, I doubt anything would be. Therefore, it will radiate. Me thinks the answer is yes. -
muoncounter at 13:40 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
#77: "What we need from scientists are estimates, presented with sufficient conservatism and plausibility but at the same time as free as possible from internal disagreements that can be exploited by political interests," How amazingly prescient was Ms. Meade! She foresaw the difficulties in which we now find ourselves. Nothing in the quote you present supports your point. Meade calls for scientific advice prior to making policy: "before there is a corresponding attempt to develop a “law of the air,” the scientific community advise the United Nations" And the article title is "The Cooling World." Mid 70s; remember all that concern about falling temperatures? -
Phila at 13:35 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
#77 Berenyi Peter There were the conclusions stated by a cultural anthropologist and climate science was asked to support them. That's what happened. I hardly know what to say, except that this is a particularly sad example of what the overriding need to deny or downplay AGW can do to the the critical faculties of otherwise intelligent people. I suppose Margaret Mead was behind this, too? -
Phila at 13:28 PM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
#71 CBW Human society has confronted numerous environmental challenges throughout its history, and this is just one more. Yes. And it's always struck me that "skeptics" love to talk about humanity's adaptability...until it comes to climate mitigation efforts, at which point there's virtually no question of adaptation; basically, society will collapse, and we'll return to the Stone Age and be forced to eat bracken and fronds. It's funny how often people offer this grim rhetoric as a cheery response to "doomsayers." As for the claim that climatology is somehow "different" from other sciences because it's "politicized," I'm sure the lung cancer researchers whose careful work was attacked for decades by industry shills would have a different view. So would a lot of virologists and evolutionary biologists, I suspect. -
Marcus at 11:34 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Beranyi, that is just a complete load of absolute codswallop & proves that you're now just scraping the bottom of the barrel to try & undermine the science of climate change. To suggest an anthropologist pushed the entire scientific community into supporting her views is a load of total bunkum. In fact, much of the evidence for the role of Greenhouse gases in controlling the climate were developed long before this conference that you refer to. Indeed, how can you even be sure that she is talking about AGW? Given the threats our atmosphere was being exposed to at the time, she was most likely referring to things like Acid Rain, particulate pollution & Ozone depletion. -
adelady at 11:24 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
BP "In fact ACC and urgent need for political action was the starting point and scientists were recrutited to serve this end. You should respect history." And so should you. Atmospheric scientists already existed in 1975. As of now the scientific origins of the theory are coming up for a 200 birthday party. In 1975 what were the atmospheric problems that we knew about? Acid rain, particulates, the effect of CFCs on the ozone layer spring to my mind. And whaddya know? We've dealt with those without plunging the world into economic and social chaos. -
scaddenp at 11:09 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
"It's only those with a long CV, a good track record and plenty on grounding that can afford the pleasures of testing orthodoxy. All the rest are grinding out the results that are easily publishable." This bears no resemblance to the science world I know. If you want to make your mark, you have to get something published that will be cited. Lots of papers that noone cites, gets you nowhere. You dont actually sit down and say, "I am going to bring down AGW". You do experiments/observations of real world and compare them to theories - especially your own versus orthodoxy. The advice I give the young is go into new, preferably well funded fields for PhD, and particularly into those where there is new instrument/analysis emerging for examining reality. Its the easiest way to make your mark. -
chris1204 at 10:48 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
PS CBW @ 71 'That's because you haven't defined an outcome in specific enough terms to predict anything.' I don't think even the IPCC would aspire to such precision. Moreover, even if you did make a prediction on the lines of, 'x% of the Greenland icecap will melt by the year y,' the good citizens of Greenland might think that's fine and dandy while the burghers of New Orleans might be struggling to hold back the rising tide. It depends on your point of view. -
chris1204 at 10:39 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
CBW @ 75 "Taking a red hot iron plug inside an "ideal" insulator such as a glass thermos with reflective surfaces. Does it radiate?" It can only radiate as far as the internal boundaries of the thermos whose reflective surfaces would prevent further outward radiation. "Or put the same plug into an iron box at the same temperature. Does it radiate in there?" Yes it does radiate but any radiation outward is counterbalanced by radiation inward resulting in a zero energy transfer between the plug and iron bar. This would apply particularly if you placed the iron box inside a perfect insulator. However, if the iron bar were placed in a vacuum, the added heat from the inserted plug cause more net heat to radiate into the vacuum. I think RSVP may be concerned with energy gradients. -
Berényi Péter at 10:34 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Anthropogenic climate change is not where science starts, thinking to fit the theory to as many phenomena as it can. ACC is where you end up following any single line of enquiry. This is not the case. In fact ACC and urgent need for political action was the starting point and scientists were recrutited to serve this end. You should respect history. Excerpts from Margaret Mead’s keynote to the conference Atmosphere: Endangered and Endangering, North Carolina, Oct. 26-29, 1975 "At this conference we are proposing that, before there is a corresponding attempt to develop a “law of the air,” the scientific community advise the United Nations (and individual, powerful nation states or aggregations of weaker states) and attempt to arrive at some overview of what is presently known about hazards to the atmosphere from manmade interventions" "I have asked a group of atmospheric specialists to meet here to consider how the very real threats to humankind and life on this planet can be stated with crediblity and persuasiveness before the present society of nations begins to enact laws of the air, or plan for “international environmental impact statements.”" "What we need from scientists are estimates, presented with sufficient conservatism and plausibility but at the same time as free as possible from internal disagreements that can be exploited by political interests, that will allow us to start building a system of artificial but effective warnings, warnings which will parallel the instincts of animals" It was in 1975, when Newsweek published this article. That is, at a time when according to a US National Academy of Sciences report "Not only are the basic scientific questions [about climate] largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions". Therefore it is not true that science came first and led to inevitable conclusions, just the opposite. There were the conclusions stated by a cultural anthropologist and climate science was asked to support them. That's what happened. -
KR at 10:32 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
RSVP - Your red hot plug will radiate at the same rate (based upon temperature) in either location. The only difference in the two scenarios you pose is whether an equal amount of radiation comes back. Sorry to be pushing this, but this particular argument is closely related to the horrible G&T paper attempting to disprove the greenhouse gas relationship by denying major parts of radiative theory. I know I'm a bit touchy about this particular error - I suspect I'm not the only one. I would strongly recommend this link on thermal radiation, as well as this link on radiative equilibrium. Objects radiate in proportion to their temperature, in fact related to temperature by the 4th power, over their emissivity spectra. Heat and changes thereof are due to the net energy flow via radiation, conduction, convection, etc.; radiation is part of that net flow. Please don't confuse the various components for the sum. -
CBW at 09:40 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
RSVP: "Taking a red hot iron plug inside an "ideal" insulator such as a glass thermos with reflective surfaces. Does it radiate?" Yes. "Or put the same plug into an iron box at the same temperature. Does it radiate in there?" Yes. "So heat does not transfer unless it has a cooler place to go..." Again, you are conflating heat flow and radiation. -
Marcus at 09:27 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
John D, as someone who actually WORKS in the field of Agricultural Science, I consider myself very well placed to see the potential for science to improve agricultural yields into the future-so please DON'T INSULT MY INTELLIGENCE! I'm also in a good vantage point to see how climate change has already partly undone the good works of the last 40 years, & how it has the potential to retard future progress. What I certainly DON'T SEE is this ludicrous UTOPIAN VISION of an enhanced CO2 world which you keep trying to paint. A vision based solely on ONE highly EQUIVOCAL trial in Horsham-a trial which even the investigators are reluctant to put a positive spin on. Every other researcher in this field, worth the name, has predicted significant declines in yield as a result of climate change & long-term decline in the *QUALITY* of agricultural produce as the result of increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Yes, these problems can be partly mitigated via a series of fixes, but these fixes will come at A HIGH COST-for farmers & consumers alike. Yet it sounds like you'd rather that cost be paid by us rather than suggest that the Fossil Fuel industry lose even a dollar as a result of cutting our production of CO2 emissions. The point that I've been trying to make, but which you've consistently failed to grasp, is that greater yield increases can be achieved-in the ABSENCE of an enhanced CO2 environment-by improved crop practices than can be achieved by increasing CO2 alone-& without the cost of reduced nutritional value. If anything, in spite of your ongoing attempts to paint a blindly optimistic picture of the future, an enhanced CO2 world will be more of a hindrance to the long-term viability of agriculture than a help. This isn't my own personal pessimism I'm expressing, I'm mostly expressing the pessimism of people who actually WORK ON THE LAND-people who're even more concerned about climate change than I am. Perhaps you ought to spend time talking to them instead of thinking you automatically know everything? -
JMurphy at 08:31 AM on 19 July 2010Does partial scientific knowledge mean we shouldn't act?
Well, johnd, the difference again is that you do not provide accessible links and wish to believe something different than what has actually occurred. I will therefore just provide more evidence that 2009 was in fact 'worst' as most people would recognise it : In February 2009 the whole of south‐east Australia was experiencing a severe and protracted drought — a drought without precedent. During January 2009 many locations in Victoria experienced no rain at all. Most other locations were at near record lows. The drought continues. In late January 2009 exceptional heatwave conditions developed across Victoria, the most severe and prolonged in the history of south‐east Australia. On 7 February many all-time temperature records were set. In Melbourne the temperature reached 46.4°C. The previous record was 45.6°C, set on Black Friday, 13 January 1939. The duration of the heatwave was exceptional, with Melbourne setting a record for the most consecutive days above 43°C (three days). The countryside was parched. The heat and drought desiccated the vegetation of the forest floor. The fuel loads were extremely high. Those responsible for managing and fighting fires in Victoria compared the conditions with 1939 — prior to 7 February 2009 the most catastrophic bushfire season in Victorian history. They held a foreboding. There was an understanding that the landscape of Victoria was predisposed to ‘a catastrophic event’. (MY EMPHASIS) Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission Interim Report I think I'll stick with the evidence, the facts and the experts. You stick with your opinion, if you prefer. -
johnd at 07:04 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
Marcus at 19:52 PM, your rather pessimistic outlook underestimates what gains have been made to date addressing some of your concerns, and the ability of the scientists and other experts working on improving plant genetics and other techniques that increase productivity, not only in cropping but in all areas of agricultural food production. Already improved farming practices are allowing those implementing the latest techniques to dramatically reduce their usage of nitrogen fertilisers by adding legumes into their cropping cycle. Not only does the legumes fix nitrogen into the soil for the crops to follow, but the legumes provide an income as well. The use of GPS guidance has not only reduced soil compaction, but the accurate placement of both seed and fertiliser has reduced usage of fertiliser by ensuring the correct amount is being placed where it will be readily and fully available to the plant with minimum losses. These challenges ahead are not providing a brick wall for agricultural related scientists to bang their heads on, but rather an opportunity with a wall full of doors to be opened as they continue to unlock plant genetics, as process barely started, rather than one that has been exhausted as many seem to think given all the barriers they see as apparently permanent limitations. -
johnd at 06:29 AM on 19 July 2010Does partial scientific knowledge mean we shouldn't act?
JMurphy at 22:44 PM, information about the fires of 1851 are available from newspaper and government archives where it is all well documented. There are many ways to quantify the severity of a fire, however area burnt is the most appropriate when comparing fires, especially between times of low population distribution and density, and times of higher distribution and density. This is especially so if trying to correlate climate and fires. Perhaps you could compare the area burnt in the Feb 2009 fires and the Feb 1851 fires and comment. "The largest Australian bushfire in European-recorded history that burnt an area of approximately 5 million ha. which covered a quarter of Victoria." Source: 1301.0 - Year Book Australia, 2004. .......... "Damage incurred during the four days of the Black Thursday bushfire. Fires covered a quarter of what is now Victoria. This spans approximately 5 million hectares.The areas affected include Portland, Plenty Ranges, Westernport, the Wimmera and Dandenong districts. Approximately 12 lives, one million sheep and thousands of cattle were lost. After five weeks of hot northerly winds, on the 6th of February,1851 known as Black Thursday, probably Victoria's most extensive bushfires, apparently started in the Plenty Ranges when two bullock drivers left some logs burning which set fire to long, drought-parched grass. From an early hour in the morning a hot wind blew from the NNW, accompanied by 47C temperatures in Melbourne. There was extensive damage in Victoria's Port Phillip district. Huge areas of southern and NE Vic were burnt out. Fires burnt from Mt Gambier in South Australia to Portland in Victoria as well as the Wimmera in the north and central and southern areas including Semour, the Plenty Ranges and much of Gippsland , Westernport, Geelong, Heidelberg and east to Diamond Creek and Dandenong where a number of settlements were destroyed. There were 1.5m ha of forest burnt out plus vast areas of scrub and grasslands (total land burnt - approx 5m ha [DNRE,Vic]). Farmers at Barrabool Hills were burnt out or ruined; three men perished at Mt Macedon and wholesale destruction of the Dandenong districts was accompanied by similar widespread razings from Gippsland to the Murray (River). Other scorched areas included Omeo, Mansfield, Dromana, Yarra Glen, Warburton and Erica." Source: EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA. -
michael sweet at 06:02 AM on 19 July 2010Irregular Climate podcast 8: Journalismgate, prawngate and rock n roll
John, Doesn't this months data show that the hottest 12 month period is July 2009 through June 2010? I imagine you wrote that last month. Four months in a row as the record hottest. But didn't it stop warming in 1998?Response: I hadn't got around to downloading the last month's data so yes, it probably is already out of data. I'll make sure I grab the latest data before I finish the 1998 post. -
RSVP at 05:22 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
CBW "Radiation is a phenomenon by which any object at > 0 degrees K will give up its energy." I appreciate your getting back to this question given the multiple threads going on here... Taking a red hot iron plug inside an "ideal" insulator such as a glass thermos with reflective surfaces. Does it radiate? Or put the same plug into an iron box at the same temperature. Does it radiate in there? The answer of course is no. This is similar to standing waves if it isnt in any event the same thing. So heat does not transfer unless it has a cooler place to go, whether by radiation, conduction or convection, all this pointing to the initial statement that the "greenhouse" effect is a self limiting process. -
Peter Hogarth at 05:12 AM on 19 July 2010Watts Up With That concludes Greenland is not melting without looking at any actual ice mass data
michael sweet at 08:06 AM on 17 July, 2010 The upper 200m or so are strongly affected by seasonal changes, (the upper 100m particularly so), and remember this is a study based on repeat hydrographic sections rather than continuous monitoring that would allow averaging over annual periods. As we go deeper the Ocean effectively does this averaging for us. -
jenikhollan at 03:47 AM on 19 July 2010Part Three: Response to Goddard
Robert, thanks for the great trilogy. I have one suggestion for the final part: what about writing ‘Gt per year’ instead of ‘Gt year’? Seems that an exponent -1 over year had been lost... Gt a-1 or Gt/a would be both valid. (I can imagine Gt.a as a unit of a forcing for an isostatic rebound, but scarcely for anything else.) -
CBW at 02:57 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
chriscanris @ 55: "I thought I had given a reasonable definition of catastrophe: that increasing atmospheric CO2 levels would set in train a concatenation of positive feedbacks with far reaching adverse consequences. Perhaps I should have said something on the lines of 'ever increasing adverse consequences beyond our capacity to control or mitigate.'" No, that's not a definition because it is entirely vague. "As matters currently stand, I just don't know whether the evidence exists to predict such an outcome confidently." That's because you haven't defined an outcome in specific enough terms to predict anything. "X% of the Greenland ice sheet melts by the year Y," is specific. "Global agricultural output falls by Z% by the year W," is another. "Really really terrible things happen," is not. You could at least try to calculate a probability for the two former scenarios. The latter is just a straw man conjured up by the deniers. RSVP: Heat flow is a process by which thermal energy is transferred from one object to another because of a difference in temperature. Radiation is a phenomenon by which any object at > 0 degrees K will give up its energy. Heat flow requires a delta-T, radiation only requires a T > 0. HumanityRules writes: "Reducing human society (and human beings) to simple carbon emitters is part of the problem of the approach of climate science and environmentalism in general. You reduce humanity to the role of polluter." Nobody is doing that reduction except within the minds of the deniers. Human progress isn't going to end because we control the amount of carbon we dump into the atmosphere. Human society has confronted numerous environmental challenges throughout its history, and this is just one more. When lead emitted by car exhaust was coating the planet in a toxic metal, human society was not reduced to "lead emitters." And we changed what we were doing in a way that made the world cleaner without bringing an end to all transportation. When industry was dumping tons of toxic chemicals into rivers, lakes, and the oceans, or burying it in ways that would leak into groundwater, human activity was not reduced to "toxic chemical emitter." And we changed what we were doing in a way that made the world cleaner without bringing an end to all industry. There are numerous other examples of similar societal self-regulation that have made the world cleaner and more healthy for everyone, and yet we still enjoy our fabulous standard of living. But people opposed every single step of that history with the claim that it would raise prices and destroy competitiveness and none of it was really necessary because there was no danger anyway. The AGW situation is no different. You can either include the true costs of an activity in its price, or you can hide the costs and pay in another way. -
chris at 01:48 AM on 19 July 2010The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
HumanityRules at 13:40 PM on 18 July, 2010 “I try objectively to think about my field of science and how ideas compete, ego's clash and petty personnal rivalries work through. And then I look at climate science and see what's going on there and honestly try to ask myself whether this is just the same thing only exposed to full public scutiny. Honestly I see no connection between the two things it's bizarre to try to fit the tactics of both sides into your own field of science, try it. I'd go back to my original comment there is a dynamic going on here that does not exist in other fields of science.” (i) I can look at my own scientific field (broadly medically-related biophysics) and see on a lesser scale some of the efforts to misrepresent the science that are so astonishingly and brazenly apparent in relation to climate science. It’s obvious that every science subject whose findings clash with powerful interests will gather a “deadweight” of misrepresentation. In my field this might be efforts by the pharmaceutical industry to hide data showing adverse side effects (e.g. GSK on the side effects of paroxetine in children; earlier efforts by the industry to misrepresent evidence for increased risk of Reyes syndrome in kids taking aspirin; sadly lots of examples), and to induce efforts at selective publishing of data to support preferred outcomes (e.g. drug efficacies) etc. (ii) This is fairly widespread isn’t it? The attempts to misrepresent evolutionary and geological science by fundamentalist pseudoreligious groups are obvious (not to mention their less well know attempts to misrepresent the science on homosexuality). The efforts to take collective action to reduce CFC emissions was strongly opposed by relevant chemical industries and some of the individuals that attempted to misrepresent that science and its implications are doing the same with climate science. It would be naïve not to recognise that these nefarious things go on….science is a rather dangerous enterprise since it uncovers truths whose implications may threaten vested interests. (iii) How do we deal with this? In my field the relevant quality journals now make efforts to identify potential conflicts of interests and these have to be stated upfront by scientists submitting papers. In the US all drug trials involving the National Institutes of Health (NIH) must be publically deposited, and publically funded research (NIH, and NASA, NOAA etc in climate science) must be published as open access. Likewise with research funded by the Wellcome Trust and other research charities in the UK. Otherwise we focus on the science and make every effort to highlight the misrepresentations (as on this excellent web site). (iv) Where I think that your presentation is fundamentally false is in the implication that all of the political nonsense and blogospheric misrepresentation is part of the science. It isn’t. Scientists are getting on with their research and finding stuff out. Your picture of an arena where ”rival ideas compete, ego's clash and petty personnal rivalries work through” is a fair one. On top of that there are some astonishing things going on…but it’s not the climate scientists that are pursuing fanatical attacks on the integrity of scientists, or setting up crude political inquisitions in an attempt to sully scientists whose work they don’t happen to like, or organise conferences to pursue a pretence that there is an “alternative” approach to the science (creationists do this too), or set up websites to attempt to spread scientific “ideas” that border on the moronic, or who organise groups of thugs to harass scientists and their institutions. You may find it convenient to consider that this rubbish is a representation of climate science. But take way all the nonsense (it will happen one day just as the misrepresenters of the science on cigarette smoking or CFC’s drifted away once it was either convenient to do so or impossible to pursue the deceits) and climate science will be bubbling away just as it is now – including a fundamental source of crucial knowledge on the response of the natural world to massively enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.
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