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Comments 115151 to 115200:

115151. Marcus at 12:33 PM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        HR. First of all, the relationship between increased CO2 & an enhanced Greenhouse effect was discovered *long* before the IPCC was ever created-& initially in the face of some stiff opposition. It was large amounts of empirical data that enabled this relationship to be shown-& to date the various denialists have yet to provide any COUNTER-EVIDENCE to undermine this relationship. Instead, the Denialists resort to all kinds of political & ideological arguments to try & attack the theory of AGW. 2nd, you whinge about the existence of a list of Climate Change Denialists existing on the internet, but I ask you-have any of these Denialists been subject to hate mail? Death threats? Threats of legal action? Threats of funding cuts to themselves or their organizations? Climatologists who support the theory of AGW have been subjected to *all* of these threats-not to mention being subjected to computer hacking & accusations of being engaged in massive global conspiracies. Yet you accuse *us* of being politically driven. Ha, that's hilarious. The politics driving this so-called "debate" is that the people who control access to our primary sources of energy do *not* want to relinquish that control any time soon-yet AGW poses the greatest threat to that control which they have ever faced. So they're deploying every weapon in their arsenal to undermine it-not with science, but with emotive claims about "World Governments", "Global Socialism" & "Economic Ruin"!
115152. HumanityRules at 12:25 PM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        41.muoncounter Not all the list signed that petition and does it matter if they did? They presumably produce science which question aspects of AGW. This is what is important, digging out petitions they signed and labelling them denier is a way of denigrating the science from the outset. I agree Bush did the same. It's a two-sided political debate. You can't seem to accept the other side exists though.
115153. HumanityRules at 12:10 PM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        40.JMurphy Let's just be clear here that list really does exist?? And it's worth remembering Kenneth Williams did have several knives sticking in his back when he spoke those immortal words so it would be fair of him to assume that not everybody was on his side :) So the IPCC is not a political beast? It's purely an information gathering service?
115154. muoncounter at 12:05 PM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        HR #36: Where to start? "driven by political necessity not empirical data. There is a dynamic here that doesn't really exist in any other field." Climate science is drowning in empirical data, so much so that we often read arguments that are little more than 'my data is better than yours' (for example, see: UAH vs. RSS LT temperatures vs. GISS temperatures, etc or ice extent vs. ice volume, etc). "What is the point of researching other aspects of climate control than CO2 when all it does is highlight you as an outsider?" The point is that its necessary to know the effects of sulfur and aerosols and methane and yes, even water vapor. None of that is outside the mainstream; nor are glaciology, paleobiology, plate tectonics, etc. This is one of the biggest scientific tents you'll find; we need expertise in lots of disciplines. "In climate science you become a heretic. Who wants to find themselves on a list like this?" People who signed the Oregon petition presumably did so because that was what they believed at the time. Its all public record. "a culture exemplified by the blacklist one has to go beyond the empirical data to question what is driving the consensus." Blacklist? Have you forgotten what was happening to Hansen et al during the Bush years?
115155. JMurphy at 11:55 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        HumanityRules wrote : Everything you say may be true but with the IPCC to lead the science and a culture exemplified by the blacklist one has to go beyond the empirical data to question what is driving the consensus. I know : it's that great big conspiracy, isn't it ? All I can think of is the line from Carry on Cleo - "Infamy, infamy ! They've all got it in-famy !!"
115156. HumanityRules at 11:52 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        37.actually thoughtfull I think my post is more of a response to cynicism. The radical ideas of today are cynical and conservative. I'm not sure how the politics of fear, catastrophe and apocalypse can be interpreted in any other way. This used to be the playground of religions now it's seen as youthful radicalism.
115157. HumanityRules at 11:43 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        "we asked what would happen to the climate if we artificially increased the proportions of greenhouse gases" I'm not sure that's what we did. We developed society, we followed a development path which allows more and more individuals the possibility to express their full potential rather than live basic hand-to-mouth existences. We developed the extraordinary machines you're sitting in front of that allow people from across the planet to communicate, and very much more. We developed great ideas. Reducing human society (and human beings) to simple carbom emmitters is part of the problem of the approach of climate science and enviromentalism in general. You reduce humanity to the role of polluter. Take that mind set and any set of empirical data and I'm sure you come up with dire conclusions.
115158. actually thoughtful at 11:38 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        Really HumanityRules? Your post is full of cynicism. Overturning the standard quo is the dream of every young person, and certainly of young scientists. Hansen et al had to do that when the idea of a serious problem was first proposed in the early 80s. Where is the data, the research - even the brilliant ideas, in need of funding? The same place the brilliant ideas to bring the world gold from iron - no where - because it isn't realistic. How can we read your post as anything but cynical cover for the lack of real ideas amongst the deniers/skeptics?
115159. HumanityRules at 10:50 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        You may be describing general scientific rules but climate science is different from any other science. It's driven by political necessity not empirical data. There is a dynamic here that doesn't really exist in any other field. "because no other contender is left standing" - this statement is primarily true because the IPCC demands only that CO2 be left standing, there is no interest in other contenders. Research other contenders and you begin to find yourself in the Wikipedia list of climate deniers. What is the point of researching other aspects of climate control than CO2 when all it does is highlight you as an outsider? Science, probably like the rest of the world, is a brutal game. I've only in recent years noticed how much culling of mid career scientists occurs, mainly because I've reached that point in my life. Reputation, connections and past record are the only thing that counts to whether you will continue in your beloved profession. Who's going to jeopardize that for a few controversial idea's? Like many others I'd always assumed that deniers generally being of the older generation was a sign of the conservative nature of this strand of thinking. It makes equally good sense that these people also have less to lose from standing out of the crowd. In other strands of science you maybe labelled a bit of a loose cannon. In climate science you become a heretic. Who wants to find themselves on a list like this? Just on a small note I just noticed that this list not only lists climate deniers but also all their recent PhD and MSc students, looks like the consensus might be getting in early to blacklist the next generation of potential deniers. Petr Chylek strikes me as a perfect example of a scientist doing science who sticks his head above the parapet. Everything you say may be true but with the IPCC to lead the science and a culture exemplified by the blacklist one has to go beyond the empirical data to question what is driving the consensus.
115160. johnd at 10:45 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        J Bowers at 08:47 AM, you appear to be missing the point of some of the articles you linked to. For instance, "Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations" compares modelled results to actual results obtained in real world FACE trials. The models were developed from trials in laboratory enclosure trials under ideal and controlled conditions, and as shown in the article do not reflect reality. Part of the purpose of FACE trials is to allow more realistic models to be developed. If you look carefully at the results tabulated, whilst the FACE results are lower than the enclosure results, what did you expect, there is still a significant increase in yield under the enriched CO2 FACE trials. All the article proves is that the models being studied were unrealistic. It reminds me of the wheeler dealer who hoped to make 5 million on a deal, and when he only made 4 million complained of losing 1 million. The link "Rising CO2 levels threaten crops and food quality" also only provides half the story. What it fails to mention is that whilst grain % protein levels fell, the increased grain yield meant that overall the amount of protein produced per unit area of land increased. This is in line with the situation under normal growing conditions where, as grain yields vary according to the growing conditions year upon year, the protein levels vary inversely. Thus years where growing conditions have been tough, and grain yields are down, grain protein levels are often some of the highest. Plants require mainly carbon, water and nitrogen. Therefore it should be no surprise if increased CO2 allows improved structural growth, the water and nitrogen requirements also increase. What has to be considered is whether the inability of the plants to achieve optimum ratios is source or sink related, that is is the limitation within the plant itself to take up, or within the soil to give up. Given the advances in knowledge and techniques related to improving crop yields, I would reserve any pessimism for when scientists start indicating that they know all there is to know and that they are unable to make any further advances. I don't see that, in fact, my impression is that they are at the other end and only starting to understand, and whatever gains have been made so far are only the beginning, with no limits being set, except by the pessimists that is.
115161. adelady at 10:13 AM on 18 July 2010
        Monckton tries to censor John Abraham
        batsvensson at 08:30 AM on 18 July, 2010 We can't control it in the way we control mechanical things. But we can refrain from *damaging* it in the same kind of way that we sustain or maintain biological systems. If you don't want lung cancer, don't smoke and don't use one of those awful smoky stoves inside your little house in India. When London was enveloped in smog for endless years, with residents dropping like flies on the worst days, they got rid of coal burning domestic fires and got rid of the problem. The CO2 problem would have been solved decades ago if it had been smelly, visible, damaging buildings and bad for tourism.
115162. johnd at 09:44 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        The most obvious missing link is clouds, or rather an adequate understanding of clouds, what drives their formation, and their effects. Overall, clouds have a nett cooling effect on the planet, but different clouds at different levels act differently. Water vapour from which clouds form, is by far the most abundant GHG. In theory it responds to the initial warming initiated by CO2 and thus is directly responsible for the bulk of the warming. However there appears to have been virtually no change in the last decade as it hovers at levels around the lower levels of the past three decades. Within the still short period of satellite cloud cover observations, the total global cloud cover reached a maximum of about 69 percent in 1987 and a minimum of about 64 percent in 2000, a decrease of about 5 percent. This decrease roughly corresponds to a radiative net change of about 0.9 W/m2 within a period of only 13 years, which may be compared with the total net change from 1750 to 2006 of 1.6 W/m2 of all climatic drivers as estimated in the IPCC 2007 report, including release of greenhouse gasses from the burning of fossil fuels.
115163. J Bowers at 08:47 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        CBW:

        "Hey, is it our fault those people are starving? We're trying as hard as we can to put plant food in the air."

        Probably not. Climate Change Surprise: High Carbon Dioxide Levels Can Retard Plant Growth, Study Reveals (2002) Rising CO2 levels threaten crops and food quality (2010) Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations. Long et al (2006) And then we have more immediate observations of a different kind of the retardation of crop yield: Russia swelters in heatwave, many crops destroyed

        (Reuters) - Soaring temperatures across large swathes of Russia have destroyed nearly 10 million hectares of crops and prompted a state of emergency to be declared in 17 regions.

115164. batsvensson at 08:30 AM on 18 July 2010
        Monckton tries to censor John Abraham
        @ adelady at 01:45 AM on 16 July, 2010 "Denialistas have an exactly parallel problem. They have no way to control the ocean, the atmosphere or nature in general." In what respect can we control the ocean and the atmosphere system?
115165. KR at 07:39 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        RSVP - what what CBW said. Your statement was completely, absolutely wrong.
115166. tobyjoyce at 07:39 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        The great biologist Theosdosius Dobzhansky made the oft-quoted statement that "Nothing in Biology makes sense except in the light of Evolution". What Graham is arguing (I think) is that nothing associated with rising temperature in the world today makes sense except in the light of Anthropogenic Global Warming. AGW links phenomena the world over - arctic ice, retreating glaciers, rising sea levels, ocean acidification etc. Howiver, AGW is not a meta-theory in the sense that Evolution is. AGW depends primarily on atmospheric and radiative physics as an explanation. It is not therefore a paradigm in its own right. This makes the denialist's task even more difficult. What they seem to be trying to do is attack every single item of evidence piecemeal - it is ALL either faked or mistaken, that is every one of the many thousands of papers that have been written by thousands of scientists. The unlikeliness of this is obvious, and links denialism to other conspiracy theories, like Ufology (e.g. the government is covering up the existence of aliens). Creationism obviously falls into this bracket also, particularly the way denialists project themselves as an oppressed minority defending "true" science.
115167. RickG at 07:36 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        SkepticStudent @21: Are you not aware of the "creationist" literature that purposely distorts and misrepresents the scientific literature; especially in the areas of physics, geology, biology, astronomy and even climatology? I don't mean that as a criticism, it's just a fact.
115168. TruthSeeker at 07:21 AM on 18 July 2010
        Archibald’s take on world temperatures
        Jim Eager at 05:45 AM on 6 July, 2010 He probably gets it from the widely disseminated misquoting of Phil Jones. Dude, the man said that the evidence of global warming in the past decade wasn't statistically significant. Which means you cannot make the claim that global warming has progressed in that time frame.
115169. CBW at 07:15 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        RSVP, your "correction" to gpwayne's sentence was wrong. Period. The sentence was about radiation, not heat flow. A correct statement: "CO2 and certain other gases re-radiate LWR in random directions." An incorrect statement: "CO2 and certain other gases re-radiate LWR in random directions as a function of a difference in temperature." Radiation is a function of an object's absolute temperature, not a difference in temperature. See this link for a discussion of thermal radiation.
115170. robert way at 07:02 AM on 18 July 2010
        Part Three: Response to Goddard
        Meltponds I don't think have been necessarily counted but melt area is measured every year. Check out the copenhagen diagnosis http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf page 25 for an idea of the measurements taking place. By the way, is it just me or is the copenhagen diagnosis not a great resource. I'm surprised more people don't use it.
115171. Kiwiiano at 05:45 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        Scared Amoeba: the strongest pin against the Creationist balloon is the thought that if you accept that an entire universe, including layered fossils, decaying isotopes and light en route from ancient supernova suddenly sprang into existence 6000-odd years ago, you can't exclude the possibility that it happened a fortnight ago and that Jesus Christ never actually existed. The best definition of Occam's Razor is; When you hear the sound of hoofbeats in the night, think "horses", not "zebras" let alone "Arcturian mega-donkeys".
115172. RSVP at 05:24 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        KR Heat has to go somewhere. As the ambient temperature "down here on Earth" increases, the GHG effect must diminish. It will want to go where it is cooler, which is up and out.
115173. RSVP at 05:17 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        To CBW... If I give you a dollar and you give me a dollar at the same time, neither of us has gained much. Heat transfer works the same way. http://biocab.org/Heat_Transfer.html This link contains the following... The formula to know the amount of heat transferred by radiation is: q = e σ A [(ΔT)^4] Where q is the heat transferred by radiation, E is the emissivity of the system, σ is the constant of Stephan-Boltzmann (5.6697 x 10^-8 W/m^2.K^4), A is the area involved in the heat transfer by radiation, and (ΔT)^4 is the difference of temperature between two systems to the fourth or higher power.
115174. CBW at 05:05 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        RSVP at 22: 'In your remark, "gases re-radiate LWR in random directions..." you forgot to add "...as a function of a difference in temperature"...' Radiation depends on temperature only, not difference in temperature.
115175. KR at 05:00 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        RSVP - "gases re-radiate LWR in random directions...": True! However, that's not a function of difference in temperature whatsoever. Objects and gases radiate omnidirectionally based upon their own temperature, not differences in temperature. And this effect increases, not decreases with increasing object temperature. Differences in temperature only come into play when calculating net energy flows, which change the temperatures of the objects involved. I don't mean to be yelling - just went through this on another blog. But this is basic science here, RSVP, and you stated the exact opposite of what is observed. Graham - excellent post.
115176. RSVP at 04:40 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        "gpwayne at 16:34 PM on 17 July, 2010 The whole shebang is predicated on very straightforward premises: CO2 and certain other gases re-radiate LWR in random directions. The earth's atmosphere traps heat, warming the earth by around 30K." In your remark, "gases re-radiate LWR in random directions..." you forgot to add "...as a function of a difference in temperature", which means this effect diminishes as temperature increases. RSVP (2010)
115177. Rob Honeycutt at 03:19 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        thingadonta @ 5.... Rather than equating scientists to a flock of birds the more accurate metaphor would be a herd of cats. Each is of its own mind. But when you see all the cats heading is the same direction... THEN you know something is really happening.
115178. CBW at 01:32 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        gpwayne asks: "How many must die, be displaced, starving or disenfranchised, before we call it catastrophic?" Hey, is it our fault those people are starving? We're trying as hard as we can to put plant food in the air.
115179. CBW at 01:28 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        chriscanaris, #8, asks: "1) What is the probability that AWG will lead to catastrophic change (often abbreviated to CAWG)?" This is a denier question, not a skeptical one. It creates a straw man that allows the denier camp to label its "opponents" as crazy alarmists out to stop all human progress. The probability of catastrophe requires you to define what you consider to be a catastrophe and propose something that might bring it about. Then you can try to compute a probability. The actual science surrounding AGW predicts a series of ongoing changes, some of which are already upon us, and some of which will affect humans and the global ecosystem.
115180. Jeff Freymueller at 00:42 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        Besides, glaciers are moving (and falling apart) pretty fast these days, so that bit of figurative language is also increasingly behind the times!
115181. oslo at 00:38 AM on 18 July 2010
        Part Three: Response to Goddard
        What about meltponds on Greenland - are they more frequent than before - do someone count them?
115182. gpwayne at 00:31 AM on 18 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        Thanks for the comments - I'll respond to those I think pertain to my subject... thingadonta I asked: ""at what point in the history of the earth did all these things happen at the same time, and at the same speed?" To which you responded: "Whenever the Earth has warmed by natural processes. It's nothing new". In which period of earth's history did a 40% increase in atmospheric CO2 precede or occur simultaneously to global warming? chriscanaris I'm keen not to get bogged down in pedantry, but can I say that many of the arguments you put forward are those of sceptics, not deniers. I will pick up on a few issues: On Catastrophe - how does one measure the catastrophic? Elsewhere, I have predicted a form of 'climate colonialism', where the industrial nations in Europe and the US suffer some disturbing phenomena - extreme weather, food and energy shortages - but the 'colonies' suffer egregious effects. So whose catastrophe are we talking about? (I also reflect on the value of a human life: what analysis is morally balanced in which a single death is considered insignificant? How many must die, be displaced, starving or disenfranchised, before we call it catastrophic?) On the attribution of ice loss, the first stage attribution is heat, not AGW. And while we should be cautious where caution is required, there's no point in downplaying the probability it's us causing the warming out of some notion that we are invoking profound scepticism by doubting when all the other signposts point in the same direction - the essence of the article and my argument. Another implicit premise of my argument addresses "our human propensity to seek simple overarching explanations". We don't have a simple, overarching explanation and nobody is proposing one. We have a complex set of phenomena, some classic and established physics and chemistry, and a logical premise that is such a good answer to all the questions, it becomes the 'single, coherent account'. EOttawa Thank you - and be my guest. I'm just the messenger here...the message is addressed to us all.
115183. JMurphy at 23:45 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        thingadonta wrote : Evolution is glacially slow. "The cichlid fish in the lakes of East Africa are a classic example of rapid evolution and extreme adaptation, In Lake Victoria, more than 100,000 to 400,000 species of cichlids have evolved and probably even in a much shorter period, because there are indications that 14,600 years ago the lake was completely dry." Super-fast evolution "Human diseases are excellent examples of evolution. Pathogens must evolve rapidly to avoid the human immune response and medical interventions, such as drugs. Because bacterial and viral pathogens have short, and generally quick, life cycles, evolution can be observed in a few days or months." NESCent You constantly give the impression (to me, at least) of being very behind-the-times, or very selective with your ideas.
115184. EOttawa at 22:56 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        Graham, Your definition of the scientific consensus, as opposed to counting the numbers of scientists and/or papers, was an 'aha moment' for me. (I then noticed that your blog title is Small Epiphanies!) While both definitions are useful, yours works on a different level I think. I hope you don't mind if I quote you during climate change debates. Well done!
115185. Ed Davies at 21:34 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        From the point of view of the converging lines of evidence it's worth pointing out that the reason James Hansen could speak up clearly on the subject in the 1980s when most other people studying climate science weren't happy to do so was that he had surveyed the area quite widely and could see all the various lines whereas others had only considered their particular specialities and so were a lot less confident. Right from the political beginning the multiple-lines aspect was important.
115186. Peter Hogarth at 21:26 PM on 17 July 2010
        Part Three: Response to Goddard
        Joe Blog at 17:00 PM on 17 July, 2010 Just a bit more to add to the weight of evidence that the ice loss trends (in this case Antarctic Ice shelves) are based on a bit more than 10 years of evidence.
115187. mspelto at 20:45 PM on 17 July 2010
        Part Three: Response to Goddard
        The key thread on both continents is that ice thinning near the margin leads to reduced buttressing and greater velocities--then more calving--and ice loss. Remember the ice streams and ice shelves of interest here are afloat or partially afloat. Think of a boat aground on a sandbar, lighten the load a bit and it can float more freely, less friction.
115188. MattJ at 20:15 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        There is a more fundamental problem with 'musings': they lack focus, by their very nature, they can never be "hard hiting words". They fail to convince the very people who most need to be convinced, they can only be useful for "preaching to the choir". But with such a hard battle ahead of us, we cannot afford to waste time and energy preaching to the choir.
115189. Phila at 20:07 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        The sun and clouds can account for warming in the late 20th century How?
115190. Peter Hogarth at 19:56 PM on 17 July 2010
        There's no empirical evidence
        Mr_Obvious at 16:30 PM on 17 July, 2010 "they do explain the temperature variations quite well when taken as a whole" This is news. Please supply some evidence or references to support this.
115191. kdkd at 18:43 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        via chriscanaris #8 "species extinctions have multiple explanations including habitat change, hunting, introduction of competing species, and the like none of which may relate to AGW" This is a nice example of why a reductionist approach doesn't really work well for considering the impact humans have on their environment. Habitat change (exploitation), hunting, propagation of weed species and so on are independent of human caused global warming, but all are symptoms with the same underlying cause - the ability of humans to manipulate their environment, and the unforseen consequences of doing so. As an well informed lay person (on the topic of ecosystems), I think that the the majority sepeces extinctions at the moment are caused by over-exploitation of the local environment, and that attributing this to global warming at this stage is poor reporting. As far as I know, global warming is projected to accellerate extinction events, for which the correct measurement is the number of extinctions per unit time, and not the total number of extinctions during the history of the planet. Anyway the Earth will be fine (until the sun goes out), it's our capability to sustain civilisation over the next 80 years or so that we should be worried about.
115192. John Russell at 18:34 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        The problem with 'musings' by a member of the 'pro-AGW' community is that it attracts 'musings' by members of the denial lobby, and we then end up with a 'tis, 'tisn't', tit-for-tat, exchange -- as seems to be developing on this thread. Let's stick to the scientific evidence packed with links. Such posts scare off most deniers -- because they can't present their counter-arguments in this way -- while attracting the genuine, honest, sceptics who are weighing up the pros and cons before deciding for themselves on the likelihood and causes of AGW.
115193. chris1204 at 18:27 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        Graham, with the greatest of respect, you've created the ultimate straw man. No serious (ie, non-silly) contenders in the sceptical camp believe that CO2 is not increasing, is not anthropogenic, and would have no impact on climate. Steve McIntyre, for example, is on record many times as saying he is not a climate change sceptic and that he believes in the need for mitigation strategies. The skeptical camp (barring some articulate and not so articulate windbags who come out with 'CO2 is plant food' type statements)tends rather to ask: 1) What is the probability that AWG will lead to catastrophic change (often abbreviated to CAWG)? The notion that AWG will result in catastrophic change requires the assumption that numerous positive feedbacks will automatically come into play to amplify the effects of CO2 which on its own would have a relatively modest impact on climate. It also ignores numerous possible negative feedbacks which might come into play (all sorts of unsettled questions around aerosols, cloud cover, and the like). 2) Do non-anthropogenic factors play a significant or more significant role in currently observed warming? While the consensus view suggests otherwise, serious scientists, whilst 'outliers' still query the contribution of insolation, cloud cover, and the like. 3)Is current warming in fact unprecedented? For example, while the consensus view suggests that the MWP was an event limited to the northern hemisphere, serious players such as McIntyre question the validity of the palaeoclimatic reconstructions and the data selection cum statistical underpinnings of Mann's 'hockey stick.' Others highlight the paucity of data for the southern hemisphere. 4) Is it valid to attribute events such as changes in Arctic ice cover to AWG? WUWT has been rightly taken to task on this site for arguing that Arctic sea ice and the Greenland ice cap will never disappear because the ice can't melt in an environment in which temperatures don't exceed 0 degrees. Sea ice cover and glacier cover depends on much more than temperature - factors such as wind patterns, ocean currents, etc, all come into play. However, acknowledgement of such complexities requires equal caution in attributing ice loss to AGW. Most of these questions have of course been thoroughly debated on this site in various locations. However, suggesting that those who pose such questions are kith and kin of the 'creationist' fraternity does them a grave injustice. The notion of 'multiple, independent lines of evidence converging on a single coherent account' is very attractive but reflects also our human propensity to seek simple overarching explanations. Likewise, Occam's razor, whilst often useful, is not infallible. Those who rely upon it need to be wary of excising inconvenient bits of data. An example from this site illustrates this well. We had a piece on accelerating species extinction events as a consequence of AGW. However, species extinctions have multiple explanations including habitat change, hunting, introduction of competing species, and the like none of which may relate to AGW. Moreover, some 99.9% of all species that have ever existed are thought to have become extinct. Currently, the rate of species extinction is thought to be between 100 to 1000 times the rate observed in the fossil record. Implicit in such estimates is the notion that the fossil record is sufficiently complete to make such estimates - a proposition that might be quite debatable. In short, each of the converging lines of evidence carries a significant probability of predominant linkage to non-AGW events. This neither proves nor disproves AGW. It does explain however why reasonable and well-informed people entertain honest doubts about the consensus.
115194. kdkd at 18:18 PM on 17 July 2010
        Hotties vs Frosties?
        gc #198 "It seems you did not read the Calzada paper and simply went into the "ad hominem" mode." Nope, I skimmed the bits of the report that seemed relevant, thought that this was outside my area of expertise (with a little bit of a thought that this appreared to make short term assumptions for what is a long term problem), and then did the same kind of citation search that I would do for my own research. Having found a very limited citation network, I looked more widely outside the academic literature, and found some serious concerns about the primary author's credentials, and refusal to give detailed methodology. If I'd accused him of being an overcooked prawn or something equally ridiculous, disparaging and irellevant to the topic, then you might have a point about an ad hominem approach. However, I did not do this, therefore your point is not valid. Now could you find some evidence about the economics of renewable energy not tainted by the fossil fuel lobby? As for this comment: "Please bury your Marxist notion that folks funded by private industry are evil whereas folks funded by governments are pure as the driven snow." Again, I said nothing of the sort. However the record of the tobacco/oil/sceptic for pay nexus is particularly poor when it comes to generating and reporting on knowledge in an objective way. And I am a Marxist-Lenninist by the way, but it's Groucho and John, not Karl and Illiytch ;).
115195. Rob Painting at 17:47 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        Thingadonta, do you not even bother to read the scientific studies cited in the arguments?. Sun & clouds?. http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm
115196. ScaredAmoeba at 17:46 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        RSVP - nice straw man, completely demolished by Graham - Ouch! Graham, Excellent post! I note your mention of creationism, but that it only occurs in the title. AFAICT, creationism is a huge problem, because it stifles scientific understanding. Some of the most virulent denialists are people like Inhofe, who is IIRC a Dominionist, AFAIK, seemingly the worst kind of creationist, at least in terms of scientific understanding.

        God put man in charge of the resources of Earth, and mankind has the divine right to use it as it pleases. And, added to this, they hold the mistaken belief that God created the Earth with enough resources to last until he destroys it again, and after he "raptures" his "chosen ones".

        I fail to see how anyone can have a rational and useful discussion with anyone about the science when that someone 'knows' that the Earth is Man's playground to do with as Man pleases i.e. pollute / despoil / etc.? Especially, when according to OpenSecrets when they are in the pockets of the FF industry.
115197. thingadonta at 17:06 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        "This is the consensus of climate change: the end point of all journeys for those studying sea level rises, the Arctic, the Antarctic, the glaciers and the ice caps, the changes in precipitation, seasonal periodicity, changes in ocean pH, weather events, droughts and famines, resource management, agriculture " Even seen birds flock together?. The biological drive to conform to achieve a group end is very powerful. This is your "how powerful a paradigm anthropogenic climate change really is". "at what point in the history of the earth did all these things happen at the same time, and at the same speed?)" Whenever the Earth has warmed by natural processes. It's nothing new. Your refernce to the missing link obfuscation and creationists and evolution is ironic. Evolution is glacially slow. Sketics contend that, yes, c02 warms the atmosphere, but like evoltuion it isnt 1-6 degrees by 2100, but more like 1-6 degrees by 21,000 AD. The stratigraphic record is consistent with this sort of time frame, but has been conveniently left out. The sun and clouds can account for warming in the late 20th century, despite the admitted fact that tree rings so beloved of Mann et al cant.
115198. Joe Blog at 17:00 PM on 17 July 2010
        Part Three: Response to Goddard
        adelady at 14:35 says "I'm not sure about your comment. You're referring to "CO2 alone" but you've not developed on Robert's comment on warming oceans." Thats a fair comment.. i didnt really address Roberts comments in regards to the milankovich cycles, and TSI... because i wasnt talking about a 100,000 year time frame, or 45,000 years... but millions.. milankovich cycles weren't relevant. And the Solar increase with time is not a sudden process(hell if the sun had increased out put 30% in 1% o our planets life, co2 is the least o our worries.) And the problem with the theory that a warm world "will" equal more ice lost in Antarctica, is that an increase in humidity in Antarctica could well lead to an accumulation o ice with greater snow fall.... It is one of the driest places on earth. It is a far less simple case as far as predicting its response, according to the inferred paleoclimatic reconstructions... And a decades worth o data dosnt convince me personally that this the beginnings of a long term trend. Or convince me that it can be soley attributed to anthropological influences at this stage
115199. gpwayne at 16:34 PM on 17 July 2010
        The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
        RSVP: "In general, it seems warmists are looking for something terribly exotic to explain global warming". We really don't need exotica. In fact, another aspect of Oreskes 'coherence' is the consistency between ACC and classical science. The whole shebang is predicated on very straightforward premises: CO2 and certain other gases re-radiate LWR in random directions. The earth's atmosphere traps heat, warming the earth by around 30K. CO2 is sequestered in carbon sinks but the ability to absorb the gas is finite - and ocean's ability to do so is a function of temperature. These are the fundamentals of climate change science, and they are old hat: Fourier calculates colder earth without an atmosphere (1824) Tyndall discovers relationship between CO2 and long-wave radiation (1859) Arrhenius calculates global warming from anthropogenic CO2 (1896) Chamberlin models global carbon exchange including feedbacks (1897) Callendar predicts global warming increase catalysed by CO2 emissions (1938) Revelle predicts inability of oceans to sequester anthropogenic CO2 (1958) (From Spencer Weart's history of ACC - http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.htm) The dates suggest that although the ideas might have been exotic at the time, we've had a century and more to get over it.
115200. Mr_Obvious at 16:30 PM on 17 July 2010
        There's no empirical evidence
        Nice charts and graphs; but, explain why you think only some minute specific band of IR could explain the energy levels required to accomplish the feats you describe. Fact is, that if you go even one iota outside the range you are trying to limit this to O2 becomes a much larger factor than CO2; and O2 has gone down by the same amount CO2 has gone up, not that it's very much. Another fact, 400ppm of CO2 can't contain anything close to even 1/1000th of a degree, let 7/10ths of a degree. Increases in input energies explain whats been going on far better; and, that includes both the rises and the falls. The primary source of input energy is the Sun. In addition to the direct IR and the visible light we see, it also emits UV and a variety of other forms of energy as well as impacting how we are effected by more distant energy sources. Attempting to claim that it must be CO2 because there aren't enough increases in IR to account for it is more childish than just about any argument out there. If you want to make the lack of input sources argument, then do your homework. Get the UV, CME, Gamma, x-ray, visible spectrum, and other readings, convert them using known atmospheric norms, and add them to the broad spectrum IR increases; then, try the argument again - except, you won't be able to; as, they do explain the temperature variations quite well when taken as a whole. Final thought - Hanson had nice charts and graphs; and, if they had been accurate Manhattan would have sunk by now.

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