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Alexandre at 08:04 AM on 4 June 2010Monckton Chronicles Part II – Here Comes the Sun?
JMurphy #2 That´s absolutely commonplace. Absurd, yes, but somehow commonplace and not likely to stop soon. Many people get to know their first notions about climate science - or science in general - through these guys and all of a sudden their convinced that all scientific institutions in the world are colluded to counterfeit a "lie". IMHO, the only antidote to this is good education. Teach people good ol´science. The basics that lead to what is known today. -
Paul D at 07:53 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@85 Efficiency of a power station is better than a IC engine? Depends of the power station! There is a good reason why CHP is considered better than a 'standard' coal fired power station and there is a good reason why the PRIMARY energy output of a CHP plant is heat energy, not electricity. That reason is because fossil fuel 'thermal' power plants waste over half the energy as heat. Yes indeed electric motors are very efficient, but a standard power station is not efficient. -
scaddenp at 07:27 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Just on energy source for electric - David MacKay made case for electric car EVEN if all the electricity came from burning fossil fuel. This is because the efficiency of a power station + electric moter is so much higher than that of internal combustion engine. -
GFW at 06:58 AM on 4 June 2010Websites to monitor the Arctic Sea Ice
Well, we're now on our third day of record low extent-for-that-date per IJIS (JAXA). Bremen says it's been a week. Presumably NSIDC will put out a monthly update in the next couple of days. The trajectory around the end of this month may set the tone for the remainder of the melt season. -
actually thoughtful at 06:32 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
CBDunkerson at 81 I did some more math, both with the 40 year average of 6%, then with what actually happened from one decade to the next. A smooth 6%/year means that every 30 years, prices will be 541% higher. In other words take the base price and multiply it by 5! (rounding down to be conservative). So the data is not so nice as to be a smooth 6%. For every 30 year average available from 1967 (two of them 67-97 and 1977-2007) the fuel multiple is over 7! Not ever wanting to overstate the case, I went back and took the multiple for each decade (Divided 1977 avg fuel price by 1967 avg fuel price and repeated for 1987, 1997, 2007) 1977/67: 2.26 1987/77: 2.50 1997/87: 1.26 2007/97: 1.91 average multiplier per 10 years: 1.98 So you can count on natural gas prices doubling every 10 years, and be right more often than not. Note that 2007 is just before the current extreme price volatility began. I note that electricity has only gone up 20% since 1997, and that coal has a multiplier of 7 over 40 years (not 30). So useful data, but using natural gas as a stand in for all fuel is probably painting with too coarse a brush. -
KR at 06:19 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
A (very) side comment on storms, weather, and uncertainty: Weather is a chaotic system, composed of a number of non-linear interactions and stochastic behavior. Like any non-linear system, it is difficult to predict where it will go next along its strange attractor. Weather prediction, in fact, started much of the recent research in chaotic systems with the discovery of the Lorenz attractor! However, like other non-linear systems, the bounds on its attractor, the limits on where it can go, are well established. We don't know what the weather will be two weeks from now - but we know how much average energy is involved, and what the range of changes can be; Arizona won't suddenly freeze for a month in the middle of summer, the Arctic won't boil. And of central importance - the chaotic dance of weather around the average temperature still centers around the energy available for that dance, regardless of how impressive the storm. -
KR at 06:05 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
Actually, most of the energy in hurricanes and other storms is latent heat, released when water vapor condenses into clouds. The spectrograph data for surface thermal radiation, atmospheric back-radiation, and solar irradiance energy values are extremely accurate, robust, and have been repeated over and over again by multiple researchers. Evaporative energy transfer calculated from total precipitation and the energy required for evaporation are solid as well. Total uncertainty in these measures are on the order of +/- 10 W/m^2, out of 492 input and 468 output. Convective transfer is admittedly harder to measure, with over-ocean measures of 10-11 W/m^2, higher over land with averages of 18-19 W/m^2, +/-5 W/m^2. Note that this totals only twice the uncertainty of the other pathways! There are NO convective estimates within an order of magnitude of the radiative energy transfer, no matter who you talk to. And there's only so much room left over between the radiative and evaporative transfers! Weather scale convection? Sure, lots of chaos, lots of uncertainty, really hard to predict next week's weather. But the total energy involved over the long haul (decades) is well known. If you don't have a measurement, you're left with an opinion. And as I said before, opinions contradicted by solid evidence aren't worth much. -
Rob Honeycutt at 05:54 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
The Ville... I think you are probably correct about coal, CO2 and electric vehicles in the US in general. The mix is different here in California where natural gas is 37%, coal only 20%, hydro is 17% and nuclear 14%. -
Doug Bostrom at 05:53 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
I can't see how anyone can claim one mechanism is dominant over the other, when at least one is so far from being understood, let alone measured accurately. Another way of saying it: My argument has no evidence to support it, so yours must be wrong. That does not seem very persuasive. -
johnd at 05:46 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
KR at 05:16 AM, convection is not simply a factor in weather, it is the weather. Accurate measurements are still in the process of being gathered, and are likely to be for some considerable time. If accurate measurements were available, then accurate forecasts could be made, but the limitations of both measuring and understanding the processes means we are still very limited in what we know. If you strip all the assumptions and calculations out of your data, what real measurements are you left with, and what errors or range of uncertainty are they subject to, really. I can't see how anyone can claim one mechanism is dominant over the other, when at least one is so far from being understood, let alone measured accurately. -
KR at 05:39 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
Measurement, noun:ˈme-zhər-mənt Numbers can be confusing at times, but they don't lie, and don't have an agenda. If you want to say that convection is dominant over radiation in terms of surface energy transfer, you will have to show that the existing measurements are wrong, with measurements that support your assertion. Storms are 'weather', not climate - short term variations can be and are MUCH larger than long term changes in the average value, but they average out in the long run. And the long run climate changes shift where the average is located. To mis-quote Jerry Maguire, "Show me the measure!" -
Doug Bostrom at 05:26 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
The Ville, looking at the report you mentioned caused me to be struck with the thought that electric vehicles are an excellent fit w/sometimes fickle (at least on small geographic scales) sources of energy such as wind and solar capture. Dissipation of energy stored in automobile batteries is rather decoupled from the demand they impose as they are charged; a sufficient mass of vehicle batteries will act as a sponge for electricity, wrung out asynchronously with generation. Related but slightly different to the notion of using motive power batteries to backfeed the grid; the net effect is similar but the mechanism is different. Obviously I'm not the first to notice that but it was all the same a striking realization for me. I've been intrigued by the concept of using idle vehicles as a capacity leveling system but even as more simple sponges they'd be useful. -
johnd at 05:26 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
Just adding to my post on the role of weather, cold fronts moving across a region can change conditions far faster and to a greater degree than what occurs if heat only dissipates due to being radiated off on a clear night. Granted if the night is long enough, any heat accumulated during the day will be lost, and at times more, but the rate of change does not match that of a fast moving cold front. -
muoncounter at 05:22 AM on 4 June 2010Monckton Chronicles Part II – Here Comes the Sun?
That graph with the straight lines and the "grand maximum" is stunning ... in its absurdity. Those lines seem to connect absolutely nothing. The sunspot number data file available here presents a monthly average SSN from Jan, 1749 - May, 2010. With a bit of repetitive work, Excel can turn into an annual average SSN: the maximum annual average SSN I found is 190 in 1957. Second highest (in a different cycle) is 158 in 1989 and third highest is a tie with 1778 and 1980 at 155 (these peaks are visible in the graph shown). In short, there is no long-term meaning to "Grand Maximum." Its just one data point among 261 years. I did read with interest this 2005 paper on Fourier Analysis of sunspot cycles, which is probably not news to this community. The authors found a number of different periodicities in excess of 180 years. That translates into a classic Fourier signal analysis problem: a short period signal (11 yrs) modulated by the sum of longer term signals. There will be what look like random maxima whenever these extremely non-random cycles produce constructive interference. So not only do those straight lines connect nothing, they mean nothing as well. -
KR at 05:16 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
johnd, convection is definitely a factor in weather, although the data show that latent heat (heat carried by evaporation) is ~3X the convective transfer. Storms have a lot of energy. But if you add up the energy of the entire surface of the planet, as measured, convection isn't the dominant mechanism for energy transfer. Where are your measurements??? -
johnd at 05:12 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
KR at 04:37 AM, if convection is not the primary form of energy transfer, then what role does weather play which is primarily all about the redistribution of uneven heat energy. Storms are the mechanism that moves large amounts of heat in a hurry when the system has become unbalanced, some so violent they punch straight through injecting water straight into the stratosphere. -
CBDunkerson at 05:06 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
actually thoughtfull #69, thanks for the corroborating data. I think this really drives home the point about the relative costs of renewables vs fossil fuels. If fossil fuel costs are rising (conservatively) at 6% per year then the average fossil fuel cost over a 30 year period (a conservative estimate of the 'lifespan' of wind and solar plants) is going to be about 287% of the current cost. So we shouldn't really be comparing current renewable costs to current fossil fuel costs... we should be comparing them to 287% or more of current fossil fuel costs. And by that standard wind goes from costing a little more than coal to substantially less. Solar is more expensive than wind, but even that comes in below coal with rising prices factored in. -
Rob Honeycutt at 04:53 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@Argus... I actually think you're over-simplifying. There is a BODY of science on climate change. Science is rarely, if ever perfectly consistent on all fronts. It's important to look at all the work being done by researchers and try to take a reading from there. Yes, Lindzen, Svensmark, Spencer and others have put forth real science. They are a considerable minority. They are outliers in a greater body of evidence. The greater body shows, TO DIFFERENT DEGREES, that climate is changing quite rapidly and that man-made CO2 is the primary driver of that change. What I'm trying to say is, that even within the circles that believe AGW is real there are differing opinions. It's not a religious "believe it or you're going to hell." I would also point out that those contrarian scientists who are putting forth well researched work are getting published. Their work is taken seriously. I just believe it's, for the most part, not agreeing with the greater body of evidence. So, you either throw out the greater body of evidence or find out why it doesn't fit. So, again, skepticism is an essential function of the scientific process. We, on the outside of that process, have to determine for ourselves if that process is operating correctly. I, for one, believe it is and therefore accept the greater body of evidence. If you do not believe it is operating correctly then you are in a position where you have to "deny" the greater body of evidence. -
Doug Bostrom at 04:52 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
But electric cars aren't much good unless you have a clean energy source. Name your poison, BP* or Massey Energy? :-) But as you suggested, the matter is not simple. Someone upthread mentioned the desirability of more efficient use of generating plant. Thank you for the link which I am now going to read. * Speaking of, the video shows the latest interception device being lowered to the floor of the ocean even now. If you pray, please put in a good word... -
CO2 is not the only driver of climate
theendisfar, When you add air to the chamber it is conduction that becomes the dominant source of heat transfer, not natural convenction. The scenario would work pretty much identically in a zero-gravity environment. Also measuring the rate of cooling in the vacuum scenario would not be a direct proxy for calculating the thermal radiation of the object. Remember that all objects emit thermal radiation, so the energy the object is losing to its own radiation is somewhat offset by the radiation emitted by the walls of the chamber. If you want to make the same comparison to the atmosphere's rate of heat exchange, you have to subtract the radiation reflecting back down from the atmosphere (324 Wm^-2). In any case, there is no rule of physics that says for any given system where natural convection applies, the energy transfer from convection will exceed that of radiation. I think you are getting thrown off by trying to visualize it as an engineering problem, where improved conduction and forced convection can often significantly increase the rate of heat transfer. This rule of thumb does not mean that any given system where convection exists must by necessity have more heat transfer from convection than thermal radiation. The comparison is further complicated by the fact that scenarios like the ones you've provided deal with objects much smaller than the atmosphere, whereas with climate science you're dealing with the dynamics of the atmosphere itself. This scale and complexity does not lend itself to simple visualizations. Also, do not confuse conduction with natural convection as you did with your vacuum chamber and Thermos examples. In order to actually visualize the contribution of natural convection, the appropriate scenario would be something like this: place an object at the bottom of a chamber filled with air, measure the rate of heat loss from the object. Repeat the test in a zero gravity environment and compare the rates. Since humans rarely deal with zero-gravity situations, trying to solve this via visualization of common scenarios is probably not a good approach. I suggest you take KR's advice and rely more on actual measured values. Photons hitting a detector will be much more reliable than grossly oversimplified thought experiments. johnd, You are confusing forced convection with natural convection. The earth's atmosphere doesn't have any mechanical fans, it relies mainly on the force of gravity and the earth's rotation to generate convection currents. These same forces exist in your fireplace whether the fans are turned on or not. -
Doug Bostrom at 04:46 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Done, the last 4 pics link to larger versions. Thank you! Just noticed. -
Paul D at 04:44 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
This has probably already been mentioned. But electric cars aren't much good unless you have a clean energy source. In the UK the grid mix of electricity generation sources gives a typical carbon footprint of between 500 and 600 grammes of CO2 per kWh. So that's what your pumping into an electric car when it's being recharged. Add on the losses of the battery and really the carbon footprint of an electric car is similar to an internal combustion engine car, when the CO2/passenger km is worked out. In the US your grid mix is dominated by coal, so I have doubts whether any electric car is currently going to make much difference, until you sort out the coal problem. The problem of electric vehicles and energy supply has recently been highlighted by a recent Royal Academy of Engineering report: http://www.newenergyfocus.com/do/ecco/view_item?listid=1&listcatid=32&listitemid=4001§ion=Electricity But they do indicate the way forward. -
Doug Bostrom at 04:44 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Argus, for scientists this is not a matter of unquestioning belief but of useful demonstration whether by robust numerical treatments or physical observations or a combination thereof. That's what Rob is addressing when he says scientists are skeptics by nature. Scientists who skip those steps or fail to use them as an effective means of rebuttal yet assert that AGW is a false premise categorize themselves. There are in fact a few researchers who are threading this needle correctly yet have still failed to produce an effective contradiction to the theory that we're able to substantially change some important characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system. -
KR at 04:37 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
Again - what are the actual measurements? Thought experiments and small scale analogies only take you so far, and do NOT trump actual data. Sunlight spectra at surface (multiple measurements, global averaging based on planetary geometry): 168 W/m^2 Thermal back-radiation spectra from atmosphere (REALLY well measured with spectroscopes): 324 W/m^2 Measured spectra of surface thermal radiation (multiple measurements in agreement with blackbody estimates): ~390 W/m^2 (396 as of the latest estimate, due to 4th power dependence on temperature and surface variations). Calculated evaporative cooling, based upon rainfall figures (what comes down must have gone up, known energy for evaporation and rainfall amounts): 78 W/m^2. Convection estimates, based on over the ocean bulk convection measurements, over the land measurements and calculations (multiple references in K&T): ~24 W/m^2, although there's actually some grounds to consider that an overestimate. 18 to 19 W/m^2 +/- 5 is rather more likely, as discussed in Kiehl and Trenberth, and in better agreement with the most recent radiative estimates. This is covered in section 4 - they generously attribute anything left over after the evaporative and radiation measurements to convection. This is still <6% of the total energy exchange. As to the small scale observations and thought experiments - the atmosphere is a heck of a lot bigger than a vacuum box, or even a house. It's important to take that into account. The measured values show that convection isn't the primary form of energy transfer. Unless you can produce different measurements, I'm going to consider these assertions contradicted by evidence to be unsupportable. Otherwise my belief in my own importance to the world would lead me to stand around in the middle of heavy traffic... -
NewYorkJ at 04:24 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Good post. Paranoid fear about losing one's "stuff" is certainly a reason for science denial. There's also the general paranoid fear of government intervention, which cripples many WUWT readers from engaging in critical thought. As eluded to above, I also think denial is partly a result of tribalistic tendencies. The tribe wants to "win". Those who listen to right-wing radio know that you can't be a real conservative or patriotic American if you buy into the global warming "hoax". Related... http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/06/01/how-low-can-you-go-2/ Al Gore's work on communicating the science is a double-edged sword. He's inherently a polarizing figure, with the 2000 election dispute cementing that view. So some have a tendency to oppose climate science because Al Gore supports it. Doing otherwise would make Gore wealthier, and liberals would "win". I think Watts (a Republican activist) drives an electric car (or more importantly, makes a big deal out of driving an electric car), because he wants to establish cred. Unlike that "hypocrite elistist Gore", who has a big house and flies in airplanes while preaching about emissions, Watts does the opposite. It's a bit of a marketing ploy. Note also that U.S. Republicans tend to be strong supporters of nuclear power. For most of them, this is generally preferred over any renewables. When you ask them to explain, their reasoning isn't very robust, and reveals that they see it as a way to win the environmental issue. Most enviros/liberals opposed nuclear power in the 1970's. Expand nuclear power to help the environment and the Republican tribe "wins". -
Argus at 04:19 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
#56, JMurphy is making the world a simple one, indeed (see full quote below!). This is because 'anyone who denies the science is, by default, a denier'. - It's that simple: you cannot deny 'the science' without being a denier. The science is always right. So the branch of climate science that stands behind the AGW hypothesis, represents True Science (or 'the science')! Other climate scientists that happen not to be AGW believers, are 'deniers', because they deny 'the science'. Their science is not True Science, because there can only be one science. It sounds like a religion to me. Quote: ''I have always been bemused by the way so-called skeptics are sensitive to those words you have highlighted, as if they can see the danger in being tagged with such descriptive words, while simultaneously showing how precisely those terms DO describe them exactly : anyone who denies the science is, by default, a denier, surely ? '' -
Ib Nielsen at 04:11 AM on 4 June 2010Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
The temperature gradient in the atmosphere of 6K/km is mainly due to the adiabatic compression of the air (gravitation) rather than to the mysterious greenhouse effect. http://freenet-homepage.de/klima/atmoseff-en.htm -
Phila at 04:05 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
"May I ask your opinion as to why there is no AGW Theory? If we had one to test, this would quickly end any debate as to what we should call each other." Please see The Discovery of Global Warming. -
Phila at 04:01 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
#9 "From a political standpoint, (C)AGW is a liberal issue - it argues for bigger government. Thus, liberals tend to support the theory and conservatives tend to oppose it on that grounds." That view is too simplistic, in my opinion. In the USA, at least, there's no consistent "big government" or "small government" party. Both sides will argue for more or less government power, depending on the issue. In regards to AGW, conservatives tend to see it as an "environmental" issue -- as opposed to, say, a national security or personal responsibility issue -- and so they tend to oppose it on principle. Many liberals believe that more government action on AGW is necessary, granted (just as many conservatives believe that more government action is needed on immigration). But I don't know anyone on the left who'd oppose a viable "free market" solution to AGW on principle. I certainly wouldn't. -
johnd at 03:51 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
KR at 02:38 AM on 4 June, 2010, better than vacuum chambers and thermos bottles for a real world observation is perhaps ones own home. Our sole form of heating over winter is a large slow combustion wood heater in a large room at one end of the house. The heater has a fan to distribute heat out of vents at the front. Without the fan going the heater can quickly become unbearably hot when standing next to it and it takes considerable time before any warmth at all is felt at the extremities of the room. With the fan going the warmth is better distributed, but there is still some warmth differential within the room, but not as much as without the fan. However we also have a ceiling fan near the heater, and when this is switched on, running only on slow, the warmth is distributed much faster and more evenly. Not only that, with the ceiling fan the warmth gradually works it way through all the doorways to other rooms right to the further extremities of the house whilst reducing the high temperatures next to the heater. In summer time, an evaporative cooler with it's inbuilt fan is much more effective way of cooling than sitting an open ice box in the middle of the room hoping that the heat from the warmer room will radiate to the colder ice in order to cool the room. -
theendisfar at 03:50 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@66 robhon, Fair enough, but again in order for me to deny something, I need a well defined theory or hypothesis to 'deny'. Agree/Disagree? Your claim that there is a 'greater scientific body of evidence' is not sufficient and often a Red Herring. I worked 3 years at a major US Scientific Agency and know quite well the effects of 'mountains of evidence' both how and why they are often used. The evidence shows the Effects, not the Cause of GW. The A in AGW is quite questionable. May I ask your opinion as to why there is no AGW Theory? If we had one to test, this would quickly end any debate as to what we should call each other. This is not trivial. While we cannot do tests with multiple Earth's, we can take the statements to describe the AGW phenomena and verify whether they are accurate based upon known sciences. In any event, AGW Denier and Believer is good enough for me. Count me in as a Denier. -
Doug Bostrom at 03:30 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Sorry, you won't convince a nonbeliever until he/she can repeat the methods and arrive at the same conclusions. Give that the NRC report I mentioned and indeed the entire field in discussion here includes observations derived from such work as ice cores requiring years of effort to retrieve, radiometers on orbital platforms and the like, you're then doomed forever to wander a wilderness of disbelief, theendisfar. Some people are objecting to the tone of this thread because Rob's original essay necessarily must speak of people who for one reason or another find themselves in contradiction with a fairly smooth continuum of research findings stretching back over 200 years. Apparently we are not to apply any form of general identification or linguistic shorthand to classify this rough category of persons. That's a fundamentally sound demand-- avoiding generalizations to classify humans in all their variety is one of the lessons of history most of us can agree with. Still-- labels aside-- we're left with a phenomenon to discuss, namely how and why this diaspora of understanding should arise. Further, this phenomenon of disagreement can and does have an impact on our physical world. How we think clearly can change our world; we know of the power of thought from such evidence as recent problems with acid rain, chlorofluorocarbons and the like, issues that could not arise without human mentation. Among those disagreeing with climate research findings we include in our companionship a variety of people who in a selective way do not subscribe to the process and results of scientific inquiry that have proven effective time and again in improving our understanding of our natural environment. This group is fairly insistent that findings from the arena of research topics that produce understanding of our climate system should not be applied to our world of human affairs, a sphere of activity which given our large population and intensive economic activity necessarily produces noticeable effects on our physical environment. We may reasonably conclude that such a choice to selectively exclude a broad array of knowledge from our evolution of behavior will produce measurable changes in our physical world. Failure to apply newly acquired understanding is not a matter hermetically contained within our heads, it reaches beyond our discourse and will in fact affect the Earth's climate system. So how can it be that discussing why and how people choose to accept one part of scientific inquiry yet for whatever reason will not accept another is not a legitimate subject of discussion at a site that is explicitly devoted to the subject of thinking about climate? For my part I cannot think of an answer to that question that is sufficiently compelling to arrest my sense of curiosity about it, nor my concern that ignoring the topic will result in knock-on effects in the world I live in. -
actually thoughtful at 03:21 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@CBDunkerson - post 44 You mention the rate of fuel cost increases. Natural gas, which is a reasonable stand in for the rate of electric (marginal unit of electricity comes from natural gas), propane and (identically) natural gas has been rising at an average rate of 6% since 1967. Over the last 10 years, including the precipitous (and clearly short term) price drops in 2009 and 2010 (through March) the rate is 4.5% The rate over the entire 41 year period (but now excluding 2009/2010) is 7.2% And finally, the trend we were on, and will soon be on again - the rate of increase for the ten years ending in 2008 was 7.5% So the rate of increase in fuel prices is at least 6% and more likely over 7% annually. This has been true through 40+ years of energy exploration, booms, busts, energy crisis, new discoveries, etc. My source is http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010us3A.htm (although I use the monthly data). 1967 is as far back as data was recorded. -
chris at 03:20 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Does Anthony Watts dream of electric sheep? -
chris at 03:18 AM on 4 June 2010On temperature and CO2 in the past
Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 23:20 PM on 31 May, 2010 Which study by "Jianli Chen" are you talking about Arkadiusz? You keep saying stuff that deeper investigation shows to be untrue. Can you not be more specific in your reference to papers rather than making all these unspecified quotations? I doubt the Eemian was 6 oC warmer than now, but unless we know what you're referring to how can we explore this??? -
Argus at 03:14 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
#40, JMurphy : "Does that mean that you are on the side of the Creationists ? Or the 9/11 troofers ? Or the Flat-Earthers ?" No. Who said anything about me? I was talking about 'people'. When Al Gore started out, he was the under-dog, doubtfully beaten by Bush (whom people around the world did not think highly of), and with a great sympathetic interest in science and environment. His movie travelled around the world and was a great success. But after that he became rich and famous, and got the Nobel prize. Rumours had it, he was living in a 20 room mansion with 8 bathrooms, all heated by natural gas, and of course travelling around the world in a private jet. Suddenly he is not the hero he once was, and people become skeptic towards his message, many errors are found in his movie, and so on. I am sure that if Michael Moore (for example) now made a movie that proved AGW is a myth, that could be the next successful climate movie. People like to see self-assured scientists proven wrong. Another example: no matter how many revered scientist are trying to explain why astrology is occult mumbo-jumbo with no scientific basis whatsoever, people still believe in it. -
theendisfar at 03:03 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
@245 KR, Ponder this scenario for a moment. Heat an object to a given temp in a vacuum chamber and record the rate of cooling. Repeat but now flood the vacuum chamber with dry air at sea level (or close). Record the rate of cooling. Say the Radiation cooling Rate is R and the Convection rate is C. If it turns out that there is ever a case that 2R > C+R, then the laws of physics must be rewritten. In any event, ponder the statement and I'll elaborate tomorrow. Note that in zero gravity convection does not take place so the test would be invalid. -
Rob Honeycutt at 02:57 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@theendisfar... But I still hold that every scientist is a skeptic by nature. It is an inherent part of the scientific process that makes it work so profoundly well. So, I would say the entire scientific community is skeptical of AGW and that is not what we're referring to. "Refuter" or "rejecter" might be better but those are somewhat clumsy words for some reason. I would still hold that you "deny" that AGW is real in the face of the greater scientific body of evidence, where the other side "believes" the science behind AGW is correct. I honestly think "AGW denier" and "AGW believer" are the most accurate terms for anyone who is not an active publishing scientist if the field of climate science. I don't think "advocate" is a good term either. No one "advocates" for AGW, the same as no one "denies" climate. -
chris at 02:53 AM on 4 June 2010Abraham shows Monckton wrong on Arctic sea ice
HumanityRules at 10:07 AM on 3 June, 2010 Kinnard et al. (2008) have used historical and contemporary records of sea ice to reconstruct an Arctic sea ice record (maximum and minimum extent) since 1870. Both the maximum and minimum sea ice extents were considerably larger during the early warming period (e.g. 1910-1940) compared to the contremporary warming period (see Figure 2 of their paper if you can access it). It simply wasn't as warm in the Arctic in the early part of the 20th century as now and the evidence indicates that sea ice regression was much less pronounced than the contemporary period. And we have to be careful with regional effects. The Spitzbergen temperature/ice variations that Arkadiusz referred to relates to a quite well understood local effect due to periodic influx of Atlantic waters into the Nordic seas, as described by Macias Fauria et al (2009). So if one was to assume that historic sea ice dynamics around Spitzbergen was representative of the whole Arctic, one might indeed construct a fallacious AGW theory. However scientists (as opposed to Moncktons!) are trying to find stuff out. Therefore they generally address the evidence in its entirety and with some attention to detail. So all of what we know about the warming in the early part of the 20th century is incorporated in "a workable AGW theory", some of which is described briefly on this thread here. We don't make stuff up to suit comfy scenarios. As the paper that Arkadiusz's extracted from concludes the evidence indicates that "...the Arctic is on its way to a new warmer state". -
theendisfar at 02:44 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@61 robhon, One other note... I very intentionally tried to use the term "climate change denier" rather than "climate denier" in my post. 'AGW Denier' is more accurate if not also more appropriate, though AGW Skeptic would be the most accurate. The term Denier assumes that we have something to deny. Without a proper Theory, or hypothesis for that matter, no one can truly deny what no one is claiming. As a skeptic I typically refer to 'believers' as AGW Advocates. -
KR at 02:38 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
Is convection more efficient than radiation? Don't assert - take a measurement! I have little (read that "no") use for assertions that aren't driven by real-world observations. Those are beliefs, not evidence, and beliefs cannot falsify observations. The actual measurements of convection and thermal radiation show that in this case it is not more efficient. These are measured values observed in nature. What are your measurements (not thought experiments) of surface heat transfer that indicate otherwise? If you have different measurements, you can argue over observed efficiency. However, current measurements indicate that thermal radiation is ~16x more efficient under these conditions than convection, and that evaporation/latent heat is >3x as efficient as convection. I'll note that the rate of change for these pathways will likely be very different - as temperatures shift, they will increase/decrease by various amounts. But under current conditions convection is a minor contributor to surface/atmosphere energy transfer. -
Paul D at 02:19 AM on 4 June 2010Monckton Chronicles Part II – Here Comes the Sun?
Uh Ohhhhhh. Monckton now deputy leader of UKIP: http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/1666-lord-monckton-is-new-deputy-leader -
theendisfar at 02:00 AM on 4 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
@243 KR, I have little use for credentials as I have little use for taking 'peer review' at face value. Citing Peer Review without a complete understanding is little different than waving someone else's credentials. I was just asking that anything presented in this conversation be understood completely by the presenter. This way we will not be using someone else's credibility, or lack there of, as a crutch or deficit. "Thermals (convection) account for ~24 W/m^2, evaporation is 78, and radiation is 390 W/m^2 " If convection is more efficient than radiation, then the above statement is false. For example, think of a Thermos. If convection were less efficient than radiation, then they would not use a vacuum to reduce cooling. I will take the time to read the article, but can you respond to my reply? Perhaps another way is to pose a question. When is Convection not more efficient than Radiation? -
Ned at 02:00 AM on 4 June 2010On the Question of Diminishing Arctic Ice Extent
Okay, I'm coming late to this thread, but it sounds like some people are downloading the PIPS output images and counting pixels to characterize changes in sea ice. What map projection are the PIPS output images in? It looks like polar stereographic to me. That projection doesn't preserve equal area, so you cannot simply use a count of pixels to determine ice-covered area. Pixels will have different areas depending on their proximity to the pole. -
Philippe Chantreau at 01:47 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
My electricity is hydro, if I had an electric car, I wouldn't need nukes or carbon. I'm not opposed to nukes as a matter of principle, BTW. Billions are bound to perish? What's that about now? Didn't someone earlier complain about emtionally charged language? -
Ned at 01:46 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
BP, the deletion of your comment might have had something to do with the suggestion that those who disagree with you have no option except "mass murder on a truly apocalyptic scale". It would be great if people on all sides would work hard to keep this thread as calm as possible, and to keep the inevitable politics etc. from spilling out of this thread and into others. -
actually thoughtful at 01:46 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@ Berényi Péter You posted about nuclear. I have already pointed out that Watts' 10kw system is large enough to charge the car. Others have pointed out that nuclear has a VERY significant carbon footprint from the concrete in the construction. I am not sure what you are upset about? Perhaps I am missing something? -
Rob Honeycutt at 01:45 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
One other note... I very intentionally tried to use the term "climate change denier" rather than "climate denier" in my post. I think it's a little absurd to suggest that anyone would deny the existence of climate. I don't think "denier" is an inaccurate term being that these they are going against the broader body of scientific work in this field. Probably AGW denier would be a more accurate way to say it. "Climate change science refuter" just doesn't work. "Climate change skeptic," as I suggested above, is something that I would reserve for ALL scientists working in the field of climate science. -
theendisfar at 01:41 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@255 Marcus, Hmmm, seems like your little "Convection/Evaporation" pseudo-hypothesis was still-born, theendisfar, given that you've got absolutely nothing solid to back it up. Listen, I'm a grown man, your sarcasm may feed your ego, but to me it is simply an annoyance at best, and at worst an attempt to exit a debate that you are not capable of attending. Please feel free to continue, but also understand I have no beef with you and these annoyances only introduce unneeded typing and take up space. Please join us at http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=5&t=239&&n=76#15225 Let's Peer Review each other's understanding of this subject and I guarantee we will all learn something new. -
Berényi Péter at 01:32 AM on 4 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
OK, I am finished with this thread. My post was definitely ontopic, was not ranting, was rational, had references and involved far less politics than the article itself. With no nuke and no carbon Anthony's electric car would never recharge. On top of that billions are bound to perish. Not a big deal. If you abhor views different from your own, you have the right to write all the comments as well. Moderation here is oppressive and unreasonable. Enuff said. Now, you can delete one more piece.
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