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Comments 11801 to 11850:

11801. scaddenp at 07:36 AM on 14 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Putting forward a policy proposal that doesnt immediately violate entrenched ideological positions would be a start. Getting action means something that will win bipartisan support rather than increasing polarization. Something that make physical sense would be good too.

11802. dmyerson at 07:00 AM on 14 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Scaddenp - "stands no chance of passage in the Senate over the next two years. But Mother Nature does not wait on our political calendar, and neither can we" - that would seem to suggest that something else of value was likely to pass the Senate and become law in the next two years. What would that be? As far as I can see, it is the GND that has forced at least some Republicans to address the issue. My Republican rep chaired the House emergy committee till last Nov and held no hearings on climate change in the years he was chair, nor did anything regarding climate change pass. Now he says he has a better policy than GND, which mostly seems to be cutting down more forests so they won't burn. He ignored the issue till the GND showed up. Whatever one thinks of the policies in the GND, it appears to me to be forceing the discussion, and moving that discussion from whether there is warming caused by humans, to what we should do about it.

11803. Molsen at 06:19 AM on 14 March 2019
       Greenland is gaining ice
       

       You should read the Polar Portal Season Report for 2018, published in November 2018, by DMI. It notes some positive things, such as Greenland's glaciers losing only a minor amount of area in the last six years.

       That's fantastic news. Take a look at the helpful graph DMI provides on page 5. Will the trend continue this year? I dunno, but it's interesting the last six years have gone unnoticed by the MSM, etc.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Please provide a link to the report you have referenced. 

       PS - When it comes to the impacts of Greenland's melting ice sheet, it is volume, not area, that matters most.

11804. nigelj at 05:38 AM on 14 March 2019
       Hopes for our climate future
       

       I want a world that understands that the economy has to be on an environmentally sustainable footing for business to survive and prosper long term, and where clean food, univeral healthcare and social security are assured. I also want to create a world that maximises individual freedom, the freedom to be different, and which maximises private enterprise and private ownership.

       A world that balances the rights of the individual with the rights of the community. A world that respects both liberal and sensible conservative concerns, because if it doesn't nobody will listen and no legislation will stick.....

       Oh and a world without confirmation bias, dunning kruger, motivated reasoning and logical fallacies...

11805. One Planet Only Forever at 05:36 AM on 14 March 2019
       Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
       

       Anyone wanting to be a Helpful Skeptic improving awareness and understanding of climate science needs to do what Feynman learned to do early in his career 'formally publish their alternative understanding in the Peer Reviewed Publication process'.

       Of course, if incorrectly influencing public opinion is the actual objective then 'other means - like political misleading claim-making - would more effectively achieve that end'.

11806. One Planet Only Forever at 05:11 AM on 14 March 2019
       Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
       

       Eclectic @53,

       I believe that a list of names that are 'used incorrectly' by political misleading marketers attempting to delay improved awareness and understanding of climate science is 'on-topic' for this OP.

       My comment @52 included aspects of circumstance for people named in vain that are actually inconsistent with the political misleading marketers who want to claim to be Skeptics just like those they 'name-drop incorrectly'.

       I would encourage you to reconsider your understanding of the motives of the anti-climate science marketers. Though some religiously indoctrinated people can be easy targets for politically motivated misleading marketing promotion of climate science denial, the people creating the misleading marketing are not likely to be attempting to defend religious leadership. And they could abuse Darwin by making the claim that 'people who would believe the thinking of Darwin should understand the unacceptability of being dismissive of alternative beliefs'.

       My comment @40 presents a likely motive for the development of political misleading marketing against the improvement of awareness and understanding of climate science. And my comment @52 suggests that the development of misleading marketers against climate science was the motivation for developing SkS and the Denial101x MOOC.

       Potentially off-topic, I would add that although people agree that it is important to reduce the harm done by the burning of fossil fuels, many of them would not support action that they perceive as potentially negatively affecting them ('their' perception being the key point). And that perception does not depend on religious views.

       The misleading marketing efforts to keep people inclined to oppose actions that would reduce the harm done by burning fossil fuels abuse that tendency. They create messaging to tempt people to resist correcting personally beneficial behaviour that is actually understandably harmful. That is potentially why in the USA, and many other places, the majority of the population will say they accept climate science and would support climate action but the majority also continue to support leaders who oppose or want to severely limit such actions. Some people allow their personal interest to over-rule their ability to understand the need to correct their behaviour, particularly to change who they vote for, to stop harming the future of humanity and help develop sustainable improvements.

11807. Philippe Chantreau at 04:14 AM on 14 March 2019
       Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
       

       I agree with Eclectic. Feynman is a frequent mention by deniers, although they fail to see how different he was than anyone in their "camp." Feynman was very wary of any kind of certainty or emotional attachment to ideas. He argued that any good scientist is his (her) own worst enemy, and that one should always scrutinize his results, be open to revision or accept that a lot of work was spent on identifying something that was wrong or a dead end. The way that Spencer/Christy handled themselves with the successive corrections required to their work, which were identified and applied by others falls far from these standards, and yet these 2 are among the few legitimate scientists speaking against the consensus; interestingly, their own scientific work that has been subjected to proper scruntiny does not even support their public satements.

       Skepticism is the part of Feynman they like, but it requires them to imply that adequate scrutiny and the corresponding scientific approach has not been maintained for literaly thousands of papers to reach the current state of climate science. They try to do that and quickly show that they're full of it. The other important aspect is that Feynman actually was a brilliant physicist, who contributed to the current state of that science. Not one of the very few legitimate scientists speaking against the consensus has a comparable dimension.

       Finally, for all his whining against labeling deniers with a pyschological disorder, Prometheus shows some rather shining exmaple of it. He mentions how Feynman denounced the pressures applied by some of the NASA upper management to the whole program, to produce results and launch flights even when risk existed that the real scientists and engineers had identified. This is a clear example of people in position of power, with a strong political component to their role, overriding the judgement of those who actually know what they're talking about. Prometheus would not comment on successive administrations imposing silence on researchers, attempting to suppress or bury results, upper management watering down reports, etc. The most grotesque of all may be the Carolina's legislature attempt to ban the words "sea level rise acceleration." All this happened repeatedly under the Bush administration and has reached unprecedented levels in the current one. It is a blatant example of politics interfering with science, exactly what Prometheus claimed to be wary of, but somehow, that's not where his concerns were. The high quality skeptics he wanted to defend seem to be in ever dwindling supply...

11808. emanroga at 15:17 PM on 13 March 2019
       CO2 was higher in the past
       

       It would be good to see an explanation of something other than the Ordovician here... the Earth then was so different in a lot of important ways it's difficult to trust any conclusions. What about Cretaceous or Paleogenic Earth? The CO2 levels then are more comparable to where we are headed, and geological and biological factors are likely more similar. 

11809. One Planet Only Forever at 14:15 PM on 13 March 2019
       Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
       

       Eclectic @53,

       My comment was also a long one.

       However, I should have at least included an example of Darwin's name being used in vain by climate science deniers.

       This Darwin related item from DeSmogBlog is one example.

11810. Eclectic at 13:25 PM on 13 March 2019
       Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
       

       OPOF @52 ,

       thank you for your suggestion of "Darwin" as an addition to the denialists' favorite allusions [addition to my list: Galileo / Einstein / Feynman / Popper].

       But in a Cavalier manner, I will reject "Darwin".   Yes, he was seen as a contrarian during his early years, as were the scientists Galileo and Einstein.   Yet, anecdotally, I haven't ever noticed Darwin's case being used by denialists ~ usually they wish to "wrap themselves in the flag" of famous scientists who were initially ridiculed but were later glorified as being very right.   (And probably there's a goodly percentage of climate-denialists who are also evolution-denialists . . . as well as being religious fundamentalists who cling to the biblical belief that God will surely intervene to protect the Earth from major degradation.  So Darwin is persona non grata for them.)   Galileo and Einstein fit their bill, and the mention of those names "proves" that History will eventually vindicate the "contrarian" climate-denialists.

       The case of Feynman is somewhat different, he seems to be alluded to as a brilliant scientist and prominent espouser of skepticism.  The denialists fail to appreciate that he was a true skeptic . . . while they themselves are faux-skeptics.   But they like to imply they are modern-day Feynmans.

       Popper, though not really classified as a scientist, gets some mentions from denialists, because they like his suggestion of the necessity of "falsifiability" (as the absolute criterion for genuine "science").   They wish to wrap themselves in his flag, too.   Popper was partly wrong about "falsifiability" [IMO ~ but I don't wish to spend time arguing the point, here] but denialists wish to selectively use falsifiability as a stumbling-block for climate science.

       Apologies for my lengthy post, and it is wandering off-topic.   But denialism itself is the topic here ~ and I have always found the introduction of some of the above four names, to be a useful raiser of the Red Flag of Suspicion that a poster is engaged in intellectually-dishonest arguments and/or rhetoric.   A handy short-cut for the reader.

11811. nigelj at 12:55 PM on 13 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       It seems to me claims its cooling again (insert 1998, 2018, whatever) are a form of stalling for time, just like the claim I have often heard "climate is so complicated so we need more research before cutting emissions". Stalling for time is a common denialist rhetorical tactic, and could be included in courses on denial 101x (if it isn't already).

       Realcimate.org have a new page called the crank shaft, on some of the whackiest, craziest pseudo science theories. I thought at first the examples were satire, but no they are apparently real.

11812. One Planet Only Forever at 12:25 PM on 13 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       Making a claim that takes 'time to be proven to be incorrect' is a common tactic of the climate science deniers. They are not being skeptical of the science. They are politically trying to delay the improvement of awareness and understanding among the general population regarding how incorrect and harmful the people they are voting to support actually are.

       A similar tactic will be used when the most recent decade of data is added to the global surface temperature escalator. The claim will be made that the economic harm of the correction is now so big (because the economy was incorrectly increased in the wrong direction and the needed correction is more significant and needed in a shorter time frame). Surely it would be prudent and pragmatic to wait until one more decade of temperature data is actually gathered. We really need to be very sure about this - don't we?

       The people who have developed undeserved perceptions of superiority (wealth or power) by benefiting from the burning of fossil fuels, particularly through the past 30 years when it was undeniable that the activity needed to be globally curtailed, fear the coming correction will actually negatively affect them and their 'status relative to others' (as it should - they should particularly lose any increased perceptions of status obtained through the past 30 years).

11813. Bob Loblaw at 11:54 AM on 13 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       scaddenp@4

       I disagree. THe problem is that the pseudo-skeptics and misinformers have nothing new to say, short of re-hashing zombie myths that are easily debunked by a simple search-and-replace, and that their "arguments" are easily foreseen several years in advance.

11814. nigelj at 11:44 AM on 13 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       OPOF, good advice.  When I originally clicked on the link to the graph it opened as a rather small image and the print was fuzzy.  But the graph opens at a good size in my other computer and phone (both also using google oddly enough and the same version) so its an issue with one of my computers and it's google browser. Strange things computers.

11815. One Planet Only Forever at 11:25 AM on 13 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       nigelj and Ari,

       A bit of playing with the 'zoom' level of my browser indicates that a 'zoom' of 200% results in the image in the OP being the same size on screen as the image size produced by clicking the link to a bigger version (the linked screen image appears at 100% zoom).

       Basically, the link goes to an image that is 200% of the OP scale if the OP is being viewed at 100% zoom (no zoom).

11816. Ken in Oz at 08:55 AM on 13 March 2019
       Wallace Broecker: Scientists memorialize a titan of climate science
       

       The Broecker led 1975 NAS/NSC report "Understanding Climatic Change; a Program for Action" was an important one that gets less mention than I think it should. As a counter to "scientists predicted cooling in the 1970's" arguments it is priceless - making it clear that the 70's science did not have sufficient quantitative understanding of climate processes to make such predictions and proposing a science program to turn that around. Which ultimately led to a soundly based conclusion that we don't have to worry about global cooling - although learning exactly why we need not worry about imminent global cooling was not nearly so reassuring as people had hoped. The government responses more closely followed the advice within that report - the current mainstream best available knowledge - and not the ice age alarmism that was principally a media creation. (Building on hype begun by existing nuclear winter stories?)

       Broecker's 1975 report also made clear that understanding how and to what extent human activities might affect the climate had already been a long running, if not yet so high priority, goal within existing science programs. Science programs that had, at that point, cross-partisan support.

11817. One Planet Only Forever at 07:30 AM on 13 March 2019
       Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
       

       Eclectic@45

       I suggest adding Darwin to your list.

       Einstein and Darwin introduced very good new explanations of what was going on. Their developed thoughts differed from, or went beyond, the awareness and understanding that had been developed at their time. Unlike the claims made by politically motivated deniers of climate science, their thoughts were consistent with all of the already developed awareness, information and observations.

       Darwin, in particular, faced opposition from opinionated people whose developed perceptions of status were challenged by the improved awareness and understanding that Darwin presented. They were unable to reasonably argue in support of their preferred opinions. But they were powerfully motivated to not correct their awareness and understanding (to maintain perceptions of status, including maintaining the status quo). And those challenged by Darwin's improvement of understanding tried very hard, and still try today, to delay the improvement of awareness and understanding in the general population (I will come back to this).

       Feynman's case is a little different. Initially, he was unable to get his ideas across in a brief conference presentation to his peers (he faced a lack of acceptance by the established scientific community at that time based on that presentation). However, when he formally published his ideas they became generally understood, accepted, referred to and worked with by his peers (legitimate climate science skeptics would present their thoughts for consideration through the Peer Reviewed Publication process - and attempts to publish in incorrectly peer reviewed publications are political acts, not the pursuit of improved scientific understanding).

       Galileo actually had the correct independently verifiable basis for the awareness and understanding that he presented. But his case is a clearer example of presenting a more correct awareness and understanding that challenged the legitimacy of developed perceptions of status of 'the socioeconomic-political leadership of his time and place' (Similar to Darwin, but leadership in Darwin's time included people whose status was not significantly challenged by the new awareness and understanding).

       Contrary to the claims made-up by political deniers of climate science (as differentiated from science skeptics who would address their skepticism through the Peer Reviewed Publication process), the climate science community is the party that is most 'like Galileo'. They are collectively developing a more correct awareness and understanding that is challenging the legitimacy of developed perceptions of status of 'the currently developed socioeconomic-political leadership'.

       Applying Abductive Reasoning (pursuing the likely best explanation for what can be observed to be happening when what is being observed cannot be investigated by controlled repeatable experiments), Prometheus has very likely developed a personal preference for claims that cannot be reasonably substantiated - an all too common nonsensical and harmfully incorrect result of political marketing actions by deliberately misleading deniers (likely for the reasons I suggested in my comment @40).

       Philippe Chantreau's simple request of Prometheus (that could be perceived as a confrontational challenge if the request cannot be responded to reasonably), to present a single example of "relavent arguements made by the skeptics that has changed the perspective of climate change science and advocates alike", has led to a stream of commenting that exposes that Prometheus is very likely acting politically in an effort to impede their own improvement of awareness and understanding regarding climate science (also, potentially hoping to reduce how much the politically incorrect climate science denial efforts they have a developed preference for are publicly challenged and confronted on SkS).

       The motivation for the helpful development of websites like SkS is likely the powerful political misleading marketing efforts to resist the corrections of developed perceptions of status that the acceptance of climate science rationally/naturally can be understood to lead to (corrections of perceptions of wealth or influence developed due to the harmful and unsustainable, and incorrectly popular and profitable, burning of fossil fuels). And the diversity of political misinformation marketing tactics abused by the climate science denial industry are likely the motivation for the helpful development of the Denial101x MOOC.

       Improving awareness and understanding and the application of that knowledge to help develop sustainable improvements for a robust diversity of humanity thriving in ways that fit into the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet clearly needs all of the likes of SkS and the Denial101x MOOC that can be developed.

11818. scaddenp at 07:17 AM on 13 March 2019
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       The inclusion of "President Obama" would suggest the poster views the world through a political lense.

11819. JWRebel at 06:25 AM on 13 March 2019
       Wallace Broecker: Scientists memorialize a titan of climate science
       

       Sorry: [Edit @1] Shift to 100,000 from 41,000 year cycles

11820. JWRebel at 06:18 AM on 13 March 2019
       Wallace Broecker: Scientists memorialize a titan of climate science
       

       Dated 08 Mar 2019

11821. JWRebel at 06:17 AM on 13 March 2019
       Wallace Broecker: Scientists memorialize a titan of climate science
       

       Off topic but related, interesting article on the role of ocean circulation in climate and carbon cycle feed-backs determining ice-age periodicity and the shift from 100,000 to 41,000 year cycles by Hasenfratz et al

       http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6431/1080/tab-pdf

11822. Philippe Chantreau at 01:10 AM on 13 March 2019
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Good question Postkey. I don't recall anyone ever really be that specific. No quote is provided. And it is, in fact, off topic. This thread is about Anthony Watts' and others assertion that the consensus is based on only one paper, and that said paper was flawed enough to invalidate the results. As usual, Watts is full of it.

11823. John Hartz at 01:06 AM on 13 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       Recommended supplementl reading:

       Global Warming ‘Hiatus’ Is the Climate Change Myth That Refuses to Die by Kevin Cowtan & Stephan Lewandowski, DeSmog, Mar 9, 2019

11824. Johnboy at 01:02 AM on 13 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       Great post and comments. Looking at Evan’s plot @1, one could say “ok denialists, let’s ignore El Ninõ years”. What do we have left, a plot of annual temperatures, complete with annual variations, that have warmed about 1°C since 1970. 

11825. Evan at 00:53 AM on 13 March 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #10
       

       The politicians only get to be politicians if they are elected, regardless of how much money they raise. If we stop electing climate-change deniers, we might start making progress.

11826. Evan at 23:33 PM on 12 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       SirCharles@6 Interesting graph. It would require 0.5C of warming in the 2020's, vs the 0.2C/decade of warming that we've typically experienced. Anything is possible, but I've struggled with this kind of messaging. I decided to base my projections on the Keeling Curve, because if you fit 60 years of CO2 data you get a quadratic function that fits the data with a fitting parameter of 0.99 (1.0 represents a perfect fit). We are trying to motivate action based on the most solid evidence we have, and I think the Keeling curve comes about as close as we can to solid data that we can use to confidently project what will happen if we don't take drastic action.

       I'm not suggesting your curve is wrong. I am simply suggesting that the Keeling curve on its own is scary enough to motivate action, and it is based on 60 years of solid evidence of how the entire system (humans + nature) has been responding.

       The gray data points that are mushed together to form a thick, gray line from 1958 to 2018 is the data for the Keeling curve. The thin curve on the left shows rising CO2 projected into the future based on a fit of the 60-year Keeling curve and indicates when we are projected to lock in particular temperature anomalies based on a climate sensitivity of 3C/doubling CO2. The curve on the right projects when we will realize that temperature anomaly, based on a 30-year time lag between commitment and realization.

       

11827. Speno at 23:01 PM on 12 March 2019
       Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
       

       And to whoever asked, a positive feedback loop isn't necessarily runaway.  It can give diminishing returns, due to many other factors at play.  Which would be why we don't see runaway heating from water vapour

11828. Speno at 22:55 PM on 12 March 2019
       Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
       

       Which also addresses Mizimi's comment about how animals make a bigger difference in terms of heat.  I havent confirmed anything on that study, but methane doesn't last in the air for the same amount of time CO2 does, it's significantly shorter.  Thus it is already in a stable equilibrium.  As more methane is put In, the old methane is coming out of the system at the same time.  Its not the same for CO2 as we haven't been putting it in the system at a stable rate for long enough that the oldest will start coming out of the system. 

11829. Speno at 22:49 PM on 12 March 2019
       Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
       

       I'll also add that even if water vapour wasn't a positive feedback loop, it doesn't matter if water vapour keeps in a huge amount of heat compared to CO2, That doesn't somehow make the CO2 induced warming insignificant. Such a claim is trying to trick you by warping your perspective. 

11830. SirCharles at 22:33 PM on 12 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       

       => Global warming will happen faster than we think

11831. Postkey at 19:43 PM on 12 March 2019
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       "The problem is when people use the study and try to state 97% believe +50% of warming is CO2 and that its dangerous (President Obama and the authors)."

       Are there 'people' that use the study and try to state 97% believe +50% of warming is CO2 and that its dangerous (President Obama and the authors)."

11832. Ari Jokimäki at 16:49 PM on 12 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       Thanks all! Nigelj, to me the graphs open up clearly larger, and for example the texts on them are easy to read, so I suggest it might have to do something with your browser. If others have problems with graphs, let me know.

11833. scaddenp at 13:19 PM on 12 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       BOb, the trouble is, that pseudo-skeptics and misinformers are doing exactly the same thing.

11834. Bob Loblaw at 11:31 AM on 12 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       Yes, well-done Ari.

          As for the "no warming since..." gambit, I mentioned this previous SkS comment a couple of weeks ago over at Tamino's, but it is worth pointing to it again. From July 2016:

       https://skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=3441#117799

       ...and here is the image it contained:

       

11835. Daniel Bailey at 08:31 AM on 12 March 2019
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       "There is no significant disagreement on the main points in the scientific community"

       Indeed, the evidence for AGW is as robust as for Auschwitz.

       "I believe part of this warming was natural"

       Abundant attribution studies show that pretty much all of the observed warming since the 1950s is from human activities, primarily via the human burning of fossil fuels.  This is a more appropriate thread for you to read on that, including the comments.

11836. scaddenp at 08:15 AM on 12 March 2019
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       "We" go with what the published science supports. The ECS is estimated at around 3 and there is no way to realize that over such a short time period. If you want to argue for low sensitivity, then do so here or here (after first reading the article and associated papers)

       The point of the consensus study is to show that a scientific consensus exists and that it is strong. What would be your alternative basis for policy in any field? I find it hard to believe you would advocate government policy follow the extreme fringe in say medicine, building standards, etc. The consensus might be wrong even if very strong but this is rare and no basis for policy.

       If you believe part of the warming is natural, (and hopefully you also believe in conservation of energy), then perhaps you might indicate which natural source do think is providing the extra energy?

11837. Philippe Chantreau at 07:48 AM on 12 March 2019
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Perhaps the whole argument is ridiculous but quite frequent. We've seen it here countless times, as well as other of the type "it's not warming." That one is gone for now but give a couple more years following the massive 2016 El Nino and it will be back. It's been a very common piece of BS to attempt arguing that there is disagreement in the scientific community. It comes in fact more regularly than others because those who use it know that the general population is not educated enough to tell it's BS. There is no significant disagreement on the main points in the scientific community.

       As for the equilibrium sensitivity for doubling, there is abundant scientific litterature suggesting that 1 degree is unrealistically low. If you want to argue further on that, there is probably a more appropriate thread.

11838. pmcvay at 06:57 AM on 12 March 2019
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       The whole argument is ridiculous. Every skeptic (denier) i know including myself falls within category 1 or 2. There may be a few category 3s but none I know. The problem is when people use the study and try to state 97% believe +50% of warming is CO2 and that its dangerous (President Obama and the authors). The study does not support this.

       The real debate is over sensitivity for doubling CO2. Is it around 1 degree C as most skeptics believe or 3,4 or 10 as most of you seem to believe? The models and the theory were tuned during a 30 year natural warming period. The future will tell. I could point out that since 1955 we have had enough CO2 increase to cause 1/2 of doubling warming and warming has been about .6 C degrees. I believe part of this warming was natural so I see no reason to move off my 1 C degree number.

11839. nigelj at 05:15 AM on 12 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       Yeah good article. However the link to the bigger graph is not much of a bigger graph, and is hard to read (unless my browser is playing up).

       The denialists are wrong to argue we are back to alleged pause temperatures as can be seen in the global temeprature record here.

       I wouldn't worry too much about the denialists. I would suggest most people looking at that NASA graph (or Hadcrut) can see the pause was inconsequential and about 6 - 8 years long in terms of surface warming, and the trend in the latest graph is towards continued warming especially when you look at the lowess smoothing line. People do basic graphs in maths at school and would understand things can be bumpy but its the longer term trend we look at. The only people who won't get this are extremely poorly educated people, and those determined not to grasp it, because of  ideological or other reasons that make them sceptical of the science. Of course they should still be refuted.

       There was a problem when warming did look flat after 1998 that required complicated but correct explanations about natural variability, but that period is obviously over looking at the NASA graph. It also has to be said the so called pause was never long enough or strong enough to suggest the underlying greenhouse gas warming process had somehow stopped, or that some unexpected natural process had taken over the climate. It's just that because of el nino / la nina we end up with a bumpy graph that looks like an escalator.

       The point I'm making is while the article is excellent and of interest to enquiring minds, things have to also be kept simple from the general publics perspective, and a simple graph says a lot to me. I think most educated people looking at the latest NASA graph would see an obvious continuing warming trend.

11840. william5331 at 05:14 AM on 12 March 2019
       2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #10
       

       Politicians will not listen to the children.  They will only listen to the people who will finance their next election campaign.  Who Pays the Piper Calls the Tune.  The solution is obvious.

11841. Evan at 03:45 AM on 12 March 2019
       The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
       

       Great post Ari.

       I've posted the following graph below, but in light of Ari's work, I feel it is worth repeating. If we plot temperature anomaly and fit a line to it, and then take the highest temperature anomaly in each decade and fit a line to it, the two lines are parallel. The implication is that as Ari and others suggest, there are years of peak warming because of the El Nino cycle, but the trend of these peak temperatures appears to be the same as the trend for the entire data set.

       No surprise, but just another way to look at the data, and another way to counter the argument that we are cooling.

       

11842. michael sweet at 22:46 PM on 11 March 2019
       Earth’s oceans are routinely breaking heat records
       

       Dr. C,

       Your question is difficult to understand.  You seem to suggest that as the ocean warms, more CO2 will dissolve in it.

       This notion is mistaken.  As the temperature of a liquid increases the solubility of a gas in the liquid decreases.  Specifically, as the temperature of the ocean increases the solubility of gasses in the ocean decreases.

       That means that as the ocean temperature increases it will outgas CO2 and lead to more CO2 in the atmosphere.  Human emissions are so large that this effect is negligible so far.

       An additional problem is that increasing ocean temperatures means less oxygen dissolved in the ocean which kills fish and other organisms.  This effect is significant and parts of the ocean, especially the tropics and the deep ocean, are becoming more depleted in oxygen.

       I have very strong recollections of boiling water in General Chemistry lab to remove the CO2 for use in titrations.  Hot water does not hold gasses.

       The moderator refers to the fact that as the gas pressure increases more gas dissolves in the ocean.  This effect causes much more CO2 to dissolve in the ocean, about 25% of released CO2, and causes increased ocean acidification.  If you do not mind ocean acidification killing all the fish than this effect does reduce air concentrations of CO2.  If humans stopped emitting CO2 today the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would decrease as the deep ocean absorbed more CO2 due to the concentrations effect.

       Does that answser  your question?

11843. John Hartz at 13:00 PM on 11 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Recommended supplemental reading:

       The Green New Deal: One climate scientist’s view, from the other side of the Atlantic by Myles Allen, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Mar 8, 2019

11844. scaddenp at 12:36 PM on 11 March 2019
       What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
       

       Hmm, I see over at desmogblog, that there are some democrats with views that I think are more realistic.

       Mike Bloomberg, former New York City Mayor, criticized the GND in a statement announcing he would not run for president. "The idea of a Green New Deal — first suggested by the columnist Tom Friedman more than a decade ago — stands no chance of passage in the Senate over the next two years. But Mother Nature does not wait on our political calendar, and neither can we,” he wrote.

       Former congressman John Delaney (D-MD), meanwhile, has been vocally critical of the GND. In a pair of tweets from February 14, Delaney called the GND “a step backwards in fighting climate change because its unrealistic goals and linkage to other unrelated policies will make it harder to do anything.”

       “The Green New Deal as it has been proposed is about as realistic as Trump saying that Mexico is going to pay for the wall,” he tweeted.

       Delaney argued that his opposition to the GND revolves around the sweeping scope with which the resolution ties climate change policy to other big reforms. “I actually don’t think the Green New Deal is the way to go,” he said in an interview with The Hill. “The reason is that I want to do something about fixing climate change tomorrow. I don’t want to tie it to fixing health care.”

       All good points.

11845. scaddenp at 06:09 AM on 11 March 2019
       Sea level rise is exaggerated
       

       Here is better comparison of satellite and tide guage data from CSIRO.

       

11846. scaddenp at 05:58 AM on 11 March 2019
       Sea level rise is exaggerated
       

       Sealevel rise is not even across the globe.

       

       Source:

       Note that sealevel measured from satellite altimetry is based on height change with respect to the reference ellipsoid, avoiding the issue of subsidence or tectonics which plague tide guages (though both measurements systems yield comparable results).

       Sealevels are falling close to melting ice thanks to reduced gravitional attraction and isostatic rebound. See here for more detailed explanation.

11847. Mal Adapted at 05:39 AM on 11 March 2019
       Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
       

       Tangentially to my last: I recently came across Charles David Keeling's 1998 autobiographical sketch. Great stuff. His contribution to the modern understanding of climate change was immense.

11848. Mal Adapted at 05:27 AM on 11 March 2019
       Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
       

       Alonerock,

       Ben Davidson's claim that climate scientists ignore substantial incident energy fluxes is simply false: see this Oregon State University tutorial.

       In any case, attribution of the recent, accelerating rise of global mean surface temperature to enhanced 'greenhouse' forcing is based on the radiative properties of the oceans, land and atmosphere. During the last 60 years, GMST has risen by more 0.9 degrees C (Berkeley Earth dataset), while atmospheric CO2 has increased from 315 ppm to 410 ppm (the Keeling curve). No significant trend in incident energy can be shown in that interval, however: thus the proportional contributions of the regions of the incident EM spectrum, along with high energy particle fluxes, are not relevant.

11849. Bob Loblaw at 02:29 AM on 11 March 2019
       Freedom of Information (FOI) requests were ignored
       

       To address the specific quote that Rogue provides in #17:

       The quote should be interpreted as an indication that the single "temperature" value provided by the UAH model calculations (based on satellete-measured atmospheric radiation emissions - AKA brightness) are dependent on atmospheric conditions over the layer from the surface to roughly 8km. The value is not equally-weighted for all heights within that range. Spencer's web site shows the weighting for the various model values they produce:

        

       

11850. DrC at 02:29 AM on 11 March 2019
       Earth’s oceans are routinely breaking heat records
       

       As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!

       I signed up for this site because of some fascinating scientific dialogue from 2010. Wow, has the tenor changed.

       My understanding of the functioning of the oceans/atmosphere interaction is  that 99% of the carbon dioxide of the surface of the earth is dissolved in the oceans. Therefore one must assume that the oceans act as a buffer in large measure for the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Am I mistaken, or is it not true that as the temperature  of a liquid increases its capacity for dissolved gases increases up to a point of the liquid becoming a gas itself, boiling.  As such, I think it is reasonable to expect a very small rise in the temperature of the ocean to cause a rather massive affect on a relatively small amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Has this been studied? Does anyone have any references to address this functioning of the ocean as a CO2 buffer?

       Moderator Response:

       [TD] The amount of CO2 able to be held by the oceans is a function of not only the temperature of the ocean, but the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. For details, in the left margin below the thermometer, click the "OA not OK" button.

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