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Comments 124051 to 124100:

124051. thingadonta at 19:30 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Yes, Yes, a similar one to "people wil rise to their level of imcompetence" in work situations, but skeptics have been saying for years that (some) climate scientists also fall victim to the Dunning-Kruger effect: eg: those climate scientists that think they can understand all/most of the complexity of the climate, and therefoe make overly-confident predictions and geustimates (eg most of the error bars in the IPCC reports). A good test of these is to look at past IPCC reports, the IPCC often get their predictions wrong (references needed), but the over-confidence in their predictions seems to just continue. Another major bone of contention, is yes, most skeptics are aware that climate science/scientists in its current understanding is aware of various skeptical arguments, and can point to various peer reviewed papers to support their positions etc etc, but the skeptics also believe and/or are very suspicious that the process of peer review within climate science in general has become corrupted (anbd also including within the IPCC process), and the peer review system now exists simply to maintain and support the status quo and those with vested interests. So, referring back to the 'peer reviewed literature' is not going to convince them unless, and until, the peer review system is reformed. (I also don't need to point out the various current events surrounding this issue).
124052. Dick Veldkamp at 19:16 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        #2 Jon Moseley: CO2 well mixed? Although the argument "CO2 is so well mixed that CO2-concentration is the same in the whole atmosphere and we can rely on measurements in one location" is probably true, poster #2 is right that you do not provide the evidence for it. Presumably, if I studied diffusion and wind global wind patterns more (thus avoiding the D-K effect), I could prove well-mixedness from the physics, but that would still be theory. If you showed some measurements from other locations which gave identical results to Hawaii, or if ice cores from both Greenland and Antartica showed identical CO2 levels, that would really clinch the case. I am 100% convinced (D-K again?) that people have done these measurements (and that results were as expected). Can you show such data?
124053. RSVP at 18:34 PM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Marcus If you will allow me to add a small touch to my last comment. So the path for heat outward is radiation into space. And greenhouse mechanisms obstruct this path as they should. Extra CO2 does indeed increase this obstruction. However... The real problem is not this path. The real problem is the additional heat needing to use this same path. Like a highway with traffic. All it takes is one accident to create a giant slowdown. The traffic is due to the fact that the highway is already saturated. Now you have more cars plus an accident. The point here is that you cant avoid generating the extra heat, which accompanies all technologies.
124054. RSVP at 18:15 PM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Marcus We are all inhabitants of a beautiful planet that everyone wants to conserve. In that sense, we are all in the same camp. I am not sure which post of mine got you going on this thing about a "last line of defense". At some point, I was asking about comparative technologies and impact studies. SNratio accused me of being political for asking these questions, which only science and engineering can answer. Believe it or not, I am the first to "wish" CO2 levels were back to "normal". If there was a magic wand to wave, I would be the first to wave it. However there is no magic wand, in the sense that reducing CO2 emissions does have an unavoidable economic burden simply due to the inertia of current capital investment. Things are precarious as it stands. It is not a political statement. It is a fact. (Example. I have an automobile I can barely afford to drive, and it is not an expensive automobile by the way). What could be a "last line of defense" for the cold winter we are having than to say it would actually be colder if it wasnt for anthropogenic warming? This comes out over and over again (and even if this were true, I for one am not complaining. It's suppose to snow today, again). If it helps you understand where I am coming from, all I can say is that I try to separate what I wish for from my beliefs or assessment of the technical issues. To be concrete, I find it very difficult to swallow this pill that claims that a .01% or .02% volumetric increase of a gas in our atmosphere is driving planet temperatures dangerously upwards. Like tying a mouse to a refrigerator and expecting to see it move. It just isnt intuitive, now matter how many "peers" signoff. One of the first things I ever posted, was that you can't destroy matter or energy. As far as your second comment, 104, urban centers do tend to be comparably warmer than surrounding rural areas. Winds typically clear out this extra heat and make city life livable, however that heat doesnt just go poof, because as I just said, you cant destroy energy. It either needs to find its way to the black of space, or be absorbed here and elevate the Earth's temperature. At some point this energy turns ice into water, and then people take notice. In this case, the location of cause and effect can be thousands of miles apart.
124055. Bob Armstrong at 17:54 PM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        @ 81 & elsewhere : I see here the nearly universal misconception , and if really thought about - shear nonsense , that albedo of a radiantly heated uniform gray ball affects its equilibrium temperature . That this leads to absurdities such as being able to construct a cryogenic cooler just by coating the inner chamber of a vacuum bottle with MgO was Kirchhoff's great insight 151 years ago . This ubiquitous error , which comes from calculating the temperature of a ( gedanken ) body which reflects with a measured albedo , but emits as a black body , is the source of the misleadingly cold numbers , such as 255k for earth upon which the notion that GHGs account for about a 33c increase in our temperature . Far more relevant , and orthogonal , is that , as calculated on my http://cosy.com/Science/TemperatureOfGrayBalls.htm , we are about 9c warmer than a gray body in our orbit . Our temperature is linear with that of the sun , and inversely proportional to the square root of our distance from it . See http://cosy.com/ for the graph which shows that Venus is the only inner planet which consequentially deviates from those functions beyond observational precision . Even a disk , black facing the sun , white facing 3k space in Venus's orbit would only be about 390k . Since since the SB law for radiant heat transfer is T ^ 4 from hot to cold , and Fourier for conduction is down the gradient of Temperature , and convection is also , by Carnot at a minimum , hot to cold , how can the surface temperature of Venus exceed the energy it is receiving from the sun unless it has some substantial internal heat source . There is no question that blankets can keep heat IN , and the heat conductivity of CO2 at . what , 90 atmospheres , would be very interesting to know . It happens my bathtub reading this year is a dog chewed copy of my niece's electrodynamics textbook at Boulder . Compared to it , the understanding of the physics displayed by both sides of this debate is pathetic .
124056. David Horton at 17:47 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        I'm not sure if we are seeing pure D-K in action here. It's more the "all scientists are idiots" syndrome (perhaps the "Horton-Cook effect"?) Moseley and Westwell above have seen something, somewhere, perhaps on the WUWT site or similar deniablog, to the effect that CO2 concentrations in the air are variable. They see that CO2 can be higher in cities, and higher in the lower levels of the atmosphere, perhaps, if a bit more sophisticated they may have read that CO2 level can vary diurnally and seasonally and with wind speed. "Ha ha", they scream with delight, "how can anyone measure CO2 levels, those hockey stick style graphs are the result of cooking the books, hiding the decline, or are all just computer models. Gotcha. No One World Government for us now you evil Frankensteins." It never occurs to them for a moment that those people whose occupation it is to measure CO2 levels might, just, be aware of those issues. Might, just, after a lifetime of studying the subject, of refining techniques, of building on the work of hundreds of other scientists, past and present, of testing results against proxy measures, might, just, have taken them into account. Might, just, be in the business of comparing like with like, of siting measuring stations to reduce variation from pollution, of averaging out diurnal and seasonal and other effects. Might, in fact, be working like scientists do in all such areas of expertise. No, they cry, "all scientists are idiots, Anthony Watts says so, hah, couldn't measure the CO2 in a brown paper bag. I'll just go on to Skeptical Science and tell that idiot John Cook all about it." And they do.
124057. llewelly at 17:24 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Westwell at 14:57 PM on 15 February, 2010 :

        Beck found, “Since 1812, the CO2 concentration in northern hemispheric air has fluctuated exhibiting three high level maxima around 1825, 1857 and 1942 the latter showing more than 400 ppm.”

        Beck's work shows wild fluctuations in CO2 up until the point where regular measurements started. The fact that the period of highest quality measurements do not show wild fluctuations should provoke skepticism of those older measurements. As it happens, there is plenty of reason to believe the older measurements Beck relied upon are in error. Furthermore - they're in conflict with every well-understood proxy for CO2. More info here and here
124058. Marcus at 16:47 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Ah yes, Westwell, the Beck "Paper"-a perfect case of bad technique masquerading as science. Beck has simply collated every single recorded CO2 measurement made in the 19th century through to the early 20th century. There were manifold problems with this data though-the samples were all taken at near surface locations; many were taken in urban environments, where CO2 emissions from urban sources were extremely high; many of the samples were measured without internal controls & the measurement tools had a massive error by today's standards. Didn't you ever wonder why the error bars in his graph are actually *larger* than the actual levels of CO2 measured? The only reason this paper ever saw the light of day is because Energy & Environment has well known connections to a number of contrarian organizations. Meanwhile, Mauna Loa is located hundreds of kilometers from any urban source of CO2 & is at an altitude at which it is above the Inversion Layer. However, if you doubt the results of Mauno Loa, Westwell, then might I suggest you look at the almost identical readings from Cape Grim in Tasmania? Or are you suggesting that there is some kind of conspiracy between these two measuring stations to hide the "naturally high levels of CO2 which have have always been present in our atmosphere" (as you seem to imply)? Yet strangely these high CO2 concentrations never turn up in *any* of the correlating ice core segments.
124059. Tom Dayton at 16:20 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Regarding John Cook's last paragraph, about how to counter the D-K effect: For people who are asking scattershot questions or who have broad misunderstandings, I like to send them to cce's online book, "The Global Warming Debate." It was down for a while, but he's got it back up on a new server with a new address: http://laymans-guide.com/. It's nicely narrative rather than pedantic, definitely accessible to laypeople, has both a readable version and a narrated-slides version. Also, most of its references are live links straight to the sources, for more detail.
124060. Karl_from_Wylie at 16:18 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        If one wants a lay audience to support (i.e. spend tax dollars) then one's arguments must be appropriate to the audience. Scientist must take responsibility to use audience appropriate communication if they want to convince anyone other than their own peer group. Its easy to get Amens from the choir but not effective in growing your cause.
124061. Timothy Chase at 16:14 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        I have a lot of catch-up to do. Work at school -- I had been a VB6 programmer, but with everything moving to the web I now have to expand my skillset. But it is probably worth saying that I have had my own intimate experiences with Dunning-Kruger... I'd certainly admit that I make a fair number of mistakes. Some of them I don't realize were mistakes until a few hours later (often fairly stupid ones it seems) and some only months later. However, one thing I pride myself on is the ability to quickly admit when I was wrong. At moments of extreme self-doubt and even anxiety, that is the one thing that I have held onto -- even though I sometimes fail. * Since I don't have the time at present to participate I would like to make available two little essays from evolution/creationism days. I can actually imagine one being somewhat offensive to people on either side of that debate. Hopefully no one will find them too offensive. I don't really think that either of them is fundamentally about evolution or creationism though, but personally more about what it means to be human. At least in my view. Religion and Science http://axismundi.hostzi.com/0/002.php A Conspiracy of Silence http://axismundi.hostzi.com/0/004.php PS If anyone wants to contact me about either piece (express their indignation, whatever) or about something else... timothy chase [at] g mail [dottish] com (remove the spaces) But it might take a few days for me to respond.
124062. jalanning at 16:13 PM on 15 February 2010
        Skeptical Science now an iPhone app
        As someone who has made presentations on climate change for the last three years, I depend on your excellent resource. But I have a BlackBerry - does this mean I'm going to have to break down and get an iPhone? Thanks for what you do!
124063. David Horton at 16:09 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        #6 That's what happens, John, when you think you are an expert on Nobel Prizes!
124064. AldousH at 16:07 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Your mention the Dunning-Kruger effect. From what I read of the paper there a number of issues that possibly need to be addressed before you can apply the Dunning-Kruger effect. Just mentioning one briefly. The person you are talking about - purportedly less skilled - may be less skilled than the experts who are in the very top quartile. However - is that less skilled person in the first and second quartile of less skilled or in the third quartile? From the paper, unless your less skilled is in the bottome two quartiles the Dunning-Kruger effect is very much less pronounced. How one sets the knowledge quartiles in climate science is anyones guess. Suggest that as with climate science/knowledge etc care is needed in applying results from one example to another.
124065. Doug Bostrom at 16:03 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Westwell at 14:57 PM on 15 February, 2010 Sorry, fella, that's a dog that won't hunt. Here's are the actual methods employed for measurement: How we measure background CO2 levels on Mauna Loa Pieter Tans and Kirk Thoning, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory This focus on sampling at Mauna Loa seems to be quite the fad right now, but if you think about it for a few minutes it just does not pass the smell test, to imagine that all of a sudden we find out the whole thing's a botch.
124066. macoles at 15:52 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        A delightful bit of D-K irony at post 2. Indeed it would be very difficult to track a single localised CO2 release across the globe. Thankfully it is not necessary to do this, as one can visually see that the localised Mauna Loa data matches well with the more contemporary global data that has been available since 1980, by simply looking at figure 2. Using one set of older data alongside another set newer data is hardly a "trick", especially when they almost overlap.
124067. Brian D at 15:08 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        John, D-K won an Ig Nobel, not a Nobel. I have nothing else to add that hasn't been said, so I'll provide the obligatory illustration.
        Response: Whoops, thanks for clarifying that, an embarrassing error.
124068. David Horton at 15:02 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        The Dunning-Kruger effect strikes again in post 2! In thread after thread, post after post, from climate change/environment/political site around the world D-K appears with increasing frequency it seems. And no matter how often an apparent simple misunderstanding is corrected, back it comes like a rock rolling down a hill. What is even more frightening is the Dunning-Kruger Shock-Jock effect, which is D-K on steroids. Andrew Bolt and MIranda Devine are a classic examples, as is Paul Sheahan just today - "The heat sinks in Sydney and Melbourne will be getting hotter, writes Paul Sheehan in the National Times. "Modern culture is built around creating urban heat sinks, yet governments obsess less about this real-world, everyday problem than the more abstract problem of carbon pollution. Fixing the first problem would help ameliorate the second."" You see - all us silly scientists concerned about an "abstract problem" when the only problem is that the cities are warming the world (not, you understand, merely possibly affecting measurements, as per Watts, but actually warming the planet more than that silly old CO2 those climatologists keep muttering about). And the terrifying thing is that this stuff, written from the bully pulpits of newspaper and radio, will be believed far more readily than the conclusions of thousands of scientists presenting the results of tens of thousands of studies.
124069. Westwell at 14:57 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Your CO2 graphs are very simplistic and don’t tell the whole story. Beck found, “Since 1812, the CO2 concentration in northern hemispheric air has fluctuated exhibiting three high level maxima around 1825, 1857 and 1942 the latter showing more than 400 ppm.” Elimination of data occurs with the Mauna Loa readings, which can vary up to 600 ppm in the course of a day. Time to revisit the science of CO2 http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/18343 50 years of Continuous measurement of CO2 on Mauna Loa -Ernest-George Beck – Energy and Environment 2008 http://icecap.us/images/uploads/08_Beck-2.pdf
124070. TOP at 14:51 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        The problems I have with this are the presentation of the graph which to a person unskilled in graph reading looks like a big spike. The scale for atmospheric concentration does not start at zero. As a CO2 source not many people have correlated with this graph: http://ldolphin.org/poprecent.gif or this one http://www.susps.org/images/worldpopgr.gif The biggest problem with the presentation of this graph is the time scale. Using another well known graph that covers 500 million years of history instead of 12,000 years we get a totally different perspective. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/7/76/Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide.png
        Response: "The scale for atmospheric concentration does not start at zero"
        
        Here is another way of looking at CO2 levels - with the CO2 axis going down to zero.
        
        
        
        
        Re CO2 levels going back 500 million years, that is an interesting question all on its own and worthy of a few posts (in fact, we touch on it here and here).
124071. JonMoseley at 14:25 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        YOU WROTE: "The reason why it's acceptable to use Mauna Loa as a proxy for global CO2 levels is because CO2 mixes well throughout the atmosphere. Consequently, the trend in Mauna Loa CO2 (1.64 ppm per year) is statistically indistinguishable from the trend in global CO2 levels (1.66 ppm per year)." ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ This is a classic example of circular reasoning. The only way one could scientifically come to the conclusion that "CO2 mixes well throughout the atmosphere" (in the context of what you are arguing) is to MEASURE CO2 throughout the world, introduce a significant increase in CO2 into one location, and then MEASURE the rate at which the marked increase in CO2 diffuses throughout the world. Because the global atmosphere is complex, with wind patterns and the complex behavior, one CANNOT make the leap that diffusion in a small sample of air can be compared to the world-wide global atmosphere.
124072. Marcus at 14:01 PM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Another point I'd like to make is in relation to RSVP's attempt to blame warming on thermal pollution rather than CO2. If his claim were correct, then industrial centers would be warming significantly faster than non-industrial &/or rural sites. Yet there is no noticeable correlation between warming & industrial activity up into the lower troposphere. Indeed, some of the fastest warming places on Earth are places like Antarctica & the Arctic, yet last I looked there were no Steel Mills or Aluminium smelters in these locations!
124073. papabob at 13:59 PM on 15 February 2010
        The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate
        Thank you for this article. I spent some years in the Air Force as a weather analyist and forecaster, way back when. I have tried to keep up in the meanwhile as the subject has been of interest since my pre teen years. It is refreshing to see some one else tell us to try to know what we don't know and remember that the more we know about this subject, the more we need to know before we can consider ourselves knowlegeable enough to argue absolutes.I don't believe that there are any absolutes. I wish we had had the technology back in the fifties and early sixties like we do now. I think that the "climate change" subject would be less contraversial.
124074. Marcus at 13:57 PM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        I know we're discussing the science-& not the economics, of CO2-emissions, but I think RSVP's claims need to be addressed. The idea that reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions will come with great economic pain, for all, is often the "last line of defense" of the contrarian camp. Yet this is, in fact, far from the truth. Around 30%-50% of all electricity use, across the world, is the result of energy inefficiency in the domestic, commercial & industrial sectors of the economy. Similarly, about 20% of all fuel use is due to inefficient use of transportation. So here we have measures for reducing CO2 which-far from being painful-might actually *improve* economic well being. Aside from direct efficiency issues, there are also things like Co-generation, moving freight long distance by rail rather than road, increasing the use of car-pooling, public transport & tele-commuting to eliminate peak-hour traffic snarls & improvement in street lighting to reduce lighting scatter & thus eliminate light pollution & allow for lower wattage globes. Beyond this there are things like using methane from land fill & sewerage plants to generate electricity-thus killing 2 birds with one stone-& implementing bio-sequestration at all fossil fueled power stations. So, even without considering electric vehicles or solar/wind/tidal power, we already have a host of measures at our disposal for reducing CO2 emissions with no long-term harm (&, in fact, with long-term economic & health benefits). Of course there is also the need to consider our obsession with perpetual economic growth. Instead of focussing on ever-increasing GDP growth, our society should instead focus attention on increasing GDP/capita. Remove this "need" for perpetual growth, & many of our current economic & environmental problems might just start to solve themselves!
124075. Tom Dayton at 13:14 PM on 15 February 2010
        On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
        diogene, no, this line of logic does not rely on assumptions, because Menne (2010) analyzed the observations. The "poorly" sited stations (one graph line) had the same trend as the "well" sited stations (a different graph line). No, airconditioner users were not given instructions about use of the airconditioner. (The stations should not have been installed there in the first place.) But that doesn't matter, as has been shown empirically by Menne. No assumptions required. Just look at the actual trends. It turns out to be a fact that any such effects are inconsequential. That was not a foregone conclusion; as you wrote, it is easy to imagine that the effects could be profound. But facts are facts.
124076. Doug Bostrom at 13:05 PM on 15 February 2010
        On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
        diogene at 12:59 PM on 15 February, 2010 Probably what is most difficult about Watts' fallacy is its fundamental simplicity. The very fact it is so -wrong- makes it easy to overshoot the basic error Watts committed and get lost in a myriad of irrelevant details. Think of it as a word problem you might have encountered in middle school. Remember all the extra information that used to be thrown in, distracting you from the actual question? Don't let the extra verbiage devoted to this topic fool you. Tom Dayton explained Watts' fallacy nicely, and there are numerous other simple explanations scattered throughout the comments in this thread. I suggest you read through and find an explanation that works for you.
124077. diogene at 12:59 PM on 15 February 2010
        On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
        Uhh, does this line of logic rely on assumptions, that the thermometer heating is constant over short and long timeframes? I'm concerned that the counterargument will be that the onset of AGW might be said to be at a similar time as the onset of widespread airconditioner installation at USCRN networks. I imagine that some might say the A/C installation would have an anomalous effect on the "anomaly". Are the A/C users at CRN 3,4,5 stations directed to use the A/C unit in a consistent way to ensure the constant differential due to thermometer heating? I didn't see this treated in Menne2010. One other point; Did Watts analysis determine whether the A/C units were operable in winter as 'heat pumps'? Thanks for trying to help. I am up against some nontrivial resistance here... Dio
124078. Tom Dayton at 12:34 PM on 15 February 2010
        On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
        diogene, a major part of the answer to your question 4 is that for a "bias" to be a bias relevant to climate change, it must be a bias in the trend of the same station - the change in the same day's or month's temperature over years, of the same station. If Station A in the northern hemisphere is next to an air conditioner coil and Station B (also in the northern hemisphere) is not, on July 18 Station A probably will be warmer than Station B--but that's in the absolute temperature on that one day. On that same July day exactly one year later, A probably again will be warmer than B, but by the same amount as on that day the previous year. The year-to-year trend in the temperature of Station A compared to itself is the measure that is relevant to climate change. Ditto for Station B. The difference in temperature between A and B easily can be imagined to be constant from year to year, and the actual observations support that imagination. Temperature "anomaly" is what you see graphed in nearly all climate change graphs. That "anomaly" contains the information about that year-to-year difference for the same station on the same day or month, but filters out the absolute temperature that is the difference between Station A and Station B.
124079. diogene at 11:11 AM on 15 February 2010
        On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
        Hello; I was trying to explain the implication of Menne2010 regarding Watts' work, and I was unable to make my point. There seemed to be ~4 issues for which I had no answer. Hopefully the experts here can help me clarify my thinking and the people around me. 1. Did Watts incorrectly apply the purported URCRN Siting Handbook criteria http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/uscrn/documentation/program/X030FullDocumentD0.pdf section 2.2.1? 2. Assuming that the criteria were correctly applied by Watts, why does the handbook list estimated errors of 1C, >=2C, and >=5C for CRN classes 3,4,5? 3. How does Menne2010 address questions 1 and/or 2? 4. I'm having trouble conveying a simple explanation of how Menne2010 or anyone could prove that nearby heatsources would not create a heat bias in measuring air temperatures. I see the analysis. But I can't explain it to anyone. What is the mechanisms that apparently immunizes the CRN 3,4,5 thermometers (MMTS or LIG) from nearby heaters? Thanks, I wish I could handle this myself, but I need help. Dio
124080. Marcus at 09:46 AM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        From Peru, I think that is almost a certainty. It's easy to accept that nearly 8,000 years of agriculture would have some impact on CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Yet compare 20ppm over 8,000 years to around 100ppm in the last 250 years (with the bulk being in just the last 60 years). It really suggests that the Industrial Revolution is a much bigger threat to our atmosphere than the previous Agricultural Revolution.
124081. Philippe Chantreau at 08:02 AM on 15 February 2010
        Jupiter is warming
        One thing I would not want to distract from is consistency of argument, as in papertiger saying in post 16: "In fact the poles are already ten or twenty degrees colder then the equator. Hot equator, cold poles. Exactly what you would expect from a solar dominated weather system." http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-on-jupiter.htm#66 Then, papertiger goes on putting words in Phil Marcus' mouth that none of the quotes justifies, but that are nevertheless the exact opposite of his previous prediction on the planet's heat distribution: "He seems to be saying that deep convection ie heat radiating from the planet would result in the pole being 30 K colder then the equator." That's the very opposite of your previously quoted theory but that's not what Phil Marcus is saying at all. If papertiger truly understood what Marcus is saying why would he use the tentative "seem to be saying"? Marcus is saying that, in theory, considering the balance of blackbody radiation from internal heat and solar radiation, one would expect to have a certain latidudinal heat distribution. The observations show something different, i.e. "Currently the weather layer (containing the clouds and vortices) is nearly isothermal in latitude." He then emphasizes that convection can not be responsible for mixing that solar heat to produce the observed uniformity. That would suggest that the amount of solar heat has in fact a modest contribution, although this is not addressed in the letter. Marcus' letter to Nature can be found here http://www.me.berkeley.edu/cfd/people/marcus/nature02470.pdf It makes no mention whatsoever of a solar influence on Jupiter's 70 year cycle as postulated by the author. Instead, Marcus' hypothesis relies exclusively on fluid dynamics and it is clear from the letter that the 70 years cycle is generated by Jupiter itself. Nowhere in the letter does Marcus suggest that variations in solar irradiance are responsible for the cycle. The climate change consists of a change in the latidudinal heat distribution. Based on this, one could say that, from Marcus' point of view, the single largest influence on Jupiter's climate is the planet's rotational velocity. His Berkeley page also links to this paper http://www.me.berkeley.edu/cfd/people/marcus/icarus162.pdf It references this Flasar et al (that includes Gierasch) paper, in which convection and lightning storms are examined in light of the Galileo data: http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/~showman/publications/ingersolletal-2004.pdf
124082. Riccardo at 04:03 AM on 15 February 2010
        It hasn't warmed since 1998
        Update. As I suspected but could not prove (yet), it was not what Jones said. Here's is the full quote from the original BBC interview: "Question - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming Answer - Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods. " So, once again, at the Daily Mail they showed that they do not understand science but unrelentlessly continue to misguide they readers.
124083. carrot eater at 03:21 AM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        suibhne: "An atmosphere radiating back to the Earths surface explained by using the Stephan Boltzman equation, but then saying that this was not meant to be taken seriously." It's to be taken seriously, inasmuch as it shows the basic concept of how back-radiation from the atmosphere can cause the surface to be warmer than it otherwise would be. In order to show that basic concept, you don't need spectral detail. Any source that uses this cartoon model should make clear that it is making a lot of simplifications: using a single-slab atmosphere, and ignoring temperature variations within the atmosphere (the lapse rate), ignoring convection, ignoring wavelength-dependent detail. Once you add all this in, you end up with a fully fledged climate model, with thousands of lines of code. But that doesn't mean simple models aren't of any value. So, you seem to say you found a website where a very simple model is presented, without those caveats telling the reader there is much being left out. If you tell us what website this is, perhaps we could have a look, and suggest to the author that a couple sentences be put it, to that effect.
124084. From Peru at 02:03 AM on 15 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        One thing: CO2 rose 100 ppm since Industrial Revolution 200 years ago. BUT: CO2 ALSO rose 20-30 ppm since 6000 years ago until 1700 AD. Could this be a result of the AGRICULTURAL Revolution(i.e from land use change)?
124085. Riccardo at 20:59 PM on 14 February 2010
        It hasn't warmed since 1998
        hint: don't take Mail Online words for it. Further down you'll read "The trend is a warming trend". There's clearly something wrong in what they report.
124086. Timothy Chase at 20:33 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Which is the More Powerful Greenhouse Gas?, part II of II Water vapor that is in the atmosphere tends to be rained out very quickly having a half-life of about 10 days -- and the same is true of tropospheric aerosols as they tend to fall out with the rain. If it weren't for the corresponding process of evaporation the atmosphere would rapidly dry out. Moreover the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is very sensative to temperature. If you raise the temperature by 1°C the absolute humidity will quickly rise by 8% due to the higher rate of evaporation, and if you raise the temperature by 10°C the absolute humidity will double. But if you raise the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere without raising the temperature right away then you will increase the rate of precipitation without a corresponding increase in the rate of evaporation. And it takes a while for the climate system to warm given the large thermal inertia of the earth's oceans and consequent characteristic time scale that is about thirty years. Please see: Spencer’s Folly July 28, 2008 http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/07/28/spencers-folly/ But a large part of a "slug" of carbon dioxide injected into the atmosphere will remain in the atmosphere for years, decades, centuries and even millenia. As such it remains in the atmosphere long enough to maintain an imbalance between the rate at which solar radiation is being absorbed and the rate at which thermal radiation escapes the atmosphere, reducing the later. With the reduced rate at which thermal radiation escapes the temperature will rise, increasing the rate of evaporation which acts as a positive feedback, increasing the temperature still further, and once the new short-term feedback Charney equilibrium is achieved, while a doubling of carbon dioxide would raise the temperature by a little more than 1°C by itself, all the feedback will likely add about 2°C to this, bringing the total warming to 3°C. Please see for example: Skeptical Science: "Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas" http://www.skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htm David Archer & Victor Brovkin (2008) The millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO₂, Climatic Change 90:283–297 http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2008.tail_implications.pdf So which is more powerful? Carbon dioxide or water vapor. The first because it leads the latter. Please see: Richard Alley – The Biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth’s Climate History December 19, 2009 http://thingsbreak.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/richard-alley-the-biggest-control-knob-carbon-dioxide-in-earths-climate-history/
124087. Timothy Chase at 20:32 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Which is the More Powerful Greenhouse Gas?, part I of II RSVP wrote in 95:

        This is what I understood. On Mars, the greenhouse effect due to CO2 contributes to a 10C increase in temperature. On Earth a 3C increase. If I didnt get that right, please correct me.

        Consider yourself corrected... The greenhouse effect results in the earth being 32°C warmer than it would otherwise be. See: What is the Effective Temperature of Venus Atmoz 18 Jul 2007 http://atmoz.org/blog/2007/07/18/what-is-the-effective-temperature-of-venus/ Now there are two ways of calculating how much a given greenhouse gas is responsible for of this warming. First, remove the gas in question while holding the other greenhouse gases constant -- and see how much the greenhouse effect would be reduced -- and attribute that amount to the greenhouse gas that was removed. For carbon dioxide one gets 9%, or 2.9°C. Methane 4% or 1.3°C. Water vapor 36% or 11.5°C and Ozone 3% 1°C. Grand total? 52% or 16.6°C. Second, remove all the other greenhouse gases while holding the greenhouse gas in question constant -- and see how much of the greenhouse effect remains. For carbon dioxide one gets 26% or 8.3°C, methane 9% or 2.9°C, water vapor 70% or 22.4°C, ozone 7% or 2.2°C. Grand total? 112% or 35.8°C. See: Gases released by human activity that contribute to climate change and global warming. http://www.opencarbonworld.com/wiki/greenhouse-gas.html ... for the figures. Why the difference? Because the absorption bands overlap. Remove one gas and at least some of the absorption and consequent greenhouse effect that the gas was responsible for will be taken up by the others. Remove the others and at least some of the absorption and consequent greenhouse effect that gas was responsible for will be taken up by the gas that is left. (Gavin Schmidt explained this at one point but I will have to look up the exact reference.) However, water vapor is a fast feedback. When we say "hold it constant" while changing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere this really is nothing more than a thought experiment and corresponding calculation.
124088. CBDunkerson at 20:06 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        RSVP, the '3 C increase from CO2 on Earth' is only partially correct. It is impossible to give an exact figure because many of the bands of radiation retained by different greenhouse gases overlap... so did a particular photon get retained by CO2... or water vapor... or ozone? The 9% estimate is computed by looking at average concentrations, location (e.g. CO2 can be found higher in the atmosphere than water vapor and thus accounts for more IR absorption there), circulation, and so forth. However, if we could somehow magically remove the overlapping IR bands from other greenhouse gases (while retaining all other bands they absorb) then CO2 would account for 26% of the 32C greenhouse warming... 8.32 C. That is a better comparison for Mars in terms of greenhouse potential since there are few other greenhouse gases there. Of course, Mars also has more CO2... but less atmospheric pressure. So you've got alot of conflicting variables in play here. Also, it was the greenhouse effect itself which disguised Venus for so long. All that CO2 in the atmosphere preventing heat from escaping means that the surface of Venus is very hot... but that heat doesn't escape out to space where we could observe it. The greenhouse effect keeps the heat contained and the upper layers of Venus's atmosphere actually seem quite hospitable and Earthlike. It was the probes which showed otherwise.
124089. Doug Bostrom at 18:50 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        RSVP at 18:39 PM on 14 February, 2010 "What fundamental science was missing at that time to have required the loss of so many space probes? " Not science, data, such as what was the atmospheric pressure at the surface, the temperature, things like that.
124090. Doug Bostrom at 18:40 PM on 14 February 2010
        It hasn't warmed since 1998
        VinceOZ at 17:17 PM on 14 February, 2010 Try as the Mail did to spin the interview, there's really not much there. Here's the part I found most shocking: "Discussing the interview, the BBC’s environmental analyst Roger Harrabin said he had spoken to colleagues of Professor Jones who had told him that his strengths included integrity and doggedness but not record-keeping and office tidying." Tut-tut. Lots of integrity but he can't keep his office tidy. Surely he must go. Vince, what say you to the graph in #40, here?
124091. RSVP at 18:39 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        CBDunkerson So where is the problem? Riccardo prompted me to "go back reading". I did. This is what I understood. On Mars, the greenhouse effect due to CO2 contributes to a 10C increase in temperature. On Earth a 3C increase. If I didnt get that right, please correct me. Now, my turn. I was saying earlier that Mars and Earth actually have "equivalence" of CO2 in their atmospheres in the sense that if you remove all other gases from that of the Earth, you would have about the same coverage of CO2 on the Earth as on Mars. In fact, as Earth is a larger planet (perhaps, and in this I am not hold my hand to any flames), there is even more CO2 volumetrically. But at any rate, these planets are at least par in some sense. Furthermore, both planets have the same rotation of around 24 hrs. Even though Mars is further from the Sun, according to you, the greenhouse effect is 3 times as high. Other posters have actually alluded to there not being enough pressure to activate the CO2 for spectral broadening etc. Perhaps the albedo is lower on Mars than the Earth, which I assume would favor more surface IR and more greenhouse heating. So, I dont think there is any problem, however, I do think it rather unfair to dismiss these questions as irrelevant, especially when a lot of the marketing behind the deleterious effects of CO2 has been based on image of the greenhouse effect on Venus. By the way, one last comment. With all that rocket science, astronomy, physics, chemistry, etc., apparently the situation on Venus came as a surprise when they actually sent probes over there. It should have been predictable. What fundamental science was missing at that time to have required the loss of so many space probes?
124092. RSVP at 17:21 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        Mike Air is what we breath here on Earth. "Air" by definition is a specific a mixture of gases, which by the way is changing over time as we can see from the graph.
124093. VinceOZ at 17:17 PM on 14 February 2010
        It hasn't warmed since 1998
        How does this jive with what Phil Jones is saying now that there has been no warming since 1995. Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995 http://tr.im/O7vd How can it be both?
124094. Timothy Chase at 16:04 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        CORRECTION: I meant "Thank you CBDunkerson. You've got the right figures -- and my attempt was seriously out of wack...." Jesh!
124095. Timothy Chase at 16:02 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        CBDunkerson wrote in 81:

        Look at effective temperatures, that is the temperature the planet would have based solely on the amount of radiation hitting it and its albedo, vs mean surface temperatures; Eff Mean Venus: 227 K 735 K Earth: 255 K 287 K Mars: 217 K 227 K

        Thank you CBDunkerson. You've got the wrong figures -- and my attempt was seriously out of wack. 1 minus the albedo for the absorbed, fourth power of the temperature for the watts implying fourth root of watts to get the temp... I found the following that shows the right approach to calculating what the temperature of a planet minus the greenhouse effect = the effective temperature. What is the Effective Temperature of Venus Atmoz 18 Jul 2007 http://atmoz.org/blog/2007/07/18/what-is-the-effective-temperature-of-venus/ I shoulda known better. Would have if I hadn't been in such a hurry.
124096. Doug Bostrom at 15:48 PM on 14 February 2010
        It's the sun
        Dan, I've seen that writeup elsewhere. Could you go through it step-by-step, being especially careful to help us understand the following things written by the author: --"The proportionality constant, 6.36E-9, was adjusted to get a fairly constant net energy from 1700 to about 1940"; Why? --"The up trend or down trend periods ascribed to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are taken as 32 years long for all periods." Why 32 years for all periods? --"The temperature range for the PDOs alone was taken to be 0.45 K for all of the PDOs." Why? For a PDO downtrend, the value added to the above sunspot calculation is 0.45 minus 0.45 multiplied by the fraction of the PDO time period that has taken place." Why?
124097. Doug Bostrom at 14:15 PM on 14 February 2010
        What the IPCC and peer-reviewed science say about Amazonian forests
        Charlie A at 13:41 PM on 14 February, 2010 Telegraph: "Yet it has now come to light that the IPCC, ignoring the evidence of its own experts, deliberately published the claim for propaganda purposes." An opinion piece, apparently, and odd that the Telegraph should consider unsubstantiated claims by the IPCC worse than what they themselves publish.
124098. Charlie A at 13:41 PM on 14 February 2010
        What the IPCC and peer-reviewed science say about Amazonian forests
        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/7231386/African-crops-yield-another-catastrophe-for-the-IPCC.html is an article with lots of details on the IPCC claim of 50% reduction in rain-fed agriculture in Africa by 2020. It includes info on how the lead author had a company that accepted government money to study potential problems and came up with conclusion that there were no significant potential problems. Then that same lead author wrote the alarmist claims that don't jibe with his own company's studies.
124099. Dan Pangburn at 13:03 PM on 14 February 2010
        It's the sun
        A graph of sunspot count vs. time shows that some cycles are high for short periods and some are not as high but for longer periods. The relevant measure is energy which is the combination of both magnitude and time as in the time-integral of sunspot count. Subtracting the energy radiated from the planet results in the net energy retained by the planet. An appropriate scale factor relates net energy to average global temperature anomaly. Combine this with the Effective Sea Surface Temperature and the result is a model that accurately predicts average global temperature anomalies since 1895. That is 114 years…and counting. It is not necessary to include changes to the level of CO2 or any other ghg. Anyone that can use EXCEL can do this. Or, see it done already at http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/TwentiethCenturyTemperatureCorrelationupdate.pdf which has links to the source data. (Replace all references to PDO with ESST which is short for Effective Sea Surface Temperature).
124100. Philippe Chantreau at 12:56 PM on 14 February 2010
        Is CO2 a pollutant?
        RSVP, Mercury is closer to the Sun than Venus, yet it's not as hot. Also, if I recall right, although Venus always presents the same side to the Sun, there is not that much difference between the sunny and shady side temperatures.

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