Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2024
Posted on 15 August 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves, Li et al., Nature Communications:
Here, we find that heatwaves can trigger low-oxygen extreme events, thereby amplifying the signal of deoxygenation. By utilizing in situ observations and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we provide a global assessment of the relationship between the two types of extreme events in the surface ocean (0–10 m). Our results show compelling evidence of a remarkable surge in the co-occurrence of marine heatwaves and low-oxygen extreme events. Hotspots of these concurrent stressors are identified in the study, indicating that this intensification is more pronounced in high-biomass regions than in those with relatively low biomass. The rise in the compound events is primarily attributable to long-term warming primarily induced by anthropogenic forcing, in tandem with natural internal variability modulating their spatial distribution. Our findings suggest the ocean is losing its breath under the influence of heatwaves, potentially experiencing more severe damage than previously anticipated.
Quantifying the Mean Sea Level, Tide, and Surge Contributions to Changing Coastal High Water Levels, Palmer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans:
We used observations from 166 tide gauges, comparing changes between periods from 1983–2001 to 2002–2020 for a global data set (GESLA), and between overlapping periods from 1992–2010 to 2004–2022 for an Australian data set (BoM). The comparison between these periods allowed us to calculate the height that a coastal barrier would need to be modified to avoid more frequent flooding, and to quantify the individual amounts from changes in MSL, tides, and surges. Higher MSL was commonly associated with higher flood probability, but changes in tides and surges made important differences for many sites. On average, a coastal barrier exceeded once per year in the earlier period was overtopped at least twice per year in the more recent period.
On Thin Ice: Solar Geoengineering to Manage Tipping Element Risks in the Cryosphere by 2040, Smith et al., Earth's Future:
Tipping elements are features of the climate system that can display self-reinforcing and non-linear responses if pushed beyond a certain threshold (the “tipping point”). Models suggest that we may surpass several of these tipping points in the next few decades, irrespective of which emissions pathway humanity follows. Some tipping elements reside in the Arctic and Antarctic and could potentially be avoided or arrested via a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) program applied only at the poles. This paper considers the utility of proactively developing the capacity to respond to emergent tipping element threats at the poles as a matter of risk management. It then examines both the air and ground infrastructure that would be required to operationalize such capability by 2040 and finds that this would require a funded launch decision by a financially credible actor by roughly 2030.
Should we change the term we use for “climate change”? Evidence from a national U.S. terminology experiment, Bruine de Bruin et al., Climatic Change:
The terms “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” and “climate justice” each draw attention to different aspects of climate change. Psychological theories of attitude formation suggest that people’s attitudes can be influenced by such variations in terminology. In a national experiment, we randomly assigned a national sample of 5,137 U.S. residents to “climate change,” “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” or “climate justice” and examined their responses. Overall, “climate change” and “global warming” were rated as most familiar and most concerning, and “climate justice” the least, with ratings for “climate crisis” and “climate emergency” falling in between. Moreover, we find no evidence for “climate crisis” or “climate emergency” eliciting more perceived urgency than “climate change” or “global warming.
Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints, Bertram et al., Nature Climate Change:
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.
Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change, Thorne et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California’s coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California’s sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures.
From this week's government and NGO section:
Fueling the Opposition How Fossil Fuel Interests Are Fighting to Kill Wind and Solar Farms Before They Are Built, David Anderson, The Energy and Policy Institute
The author identifies some of the major players involved in disinformation campaigns targeting renewable energy projects and technologies, including funders from the coal, petroleum, and methane gas industries; networks of front groups and political operatives paid by these fossil fuel interests; and the cadre of top anti-wind and anti-solar activists who have coordinated closely with these front groups and operatives for over a decade. The author helps to answer frequently asked questions about the role the fossil fuel industry has played in stoking opposition to renewable energy projects and comes at a time when many of these same opponents are escalating their attacks and seeking to derail the Inflation Reduction Act’s historic investment in renewables
The False Promise and Potential Health Harms of Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2 EOR) as a Tool of Climate Mitigation, Science and Environmental Health Network and the Bold Alliance
Using increasing amounts of newly subsidized carbon dioxide (CO2) to remove oil from the ground is the next phase in the fossil fuel industry’s bid to extend the use of fossil fuels far into the future. While the industry claims that carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2 EOR) is a tool of climate mitigation, it perpetuates oil and gas extraction and generates more greenhouse gases. Subsidized by public money through excessively generous tax credits, CO2 EOR not only exacerbates climate change but also causes unusual public health and environmental damage. The authors explore the history and geology of CO2 EOR, describe the public health, environment, and climate impacts, and conclude that our commitment to future generations requires a halt to this practice.
142 articles in 66 journals by 808 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Assessing the volume of warm water entering the Indian Ocean and surface temperature changes in Persian Gulf, Azar et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-024-05891-3
Deforestation amplifies climate change effects on warming and cloud level rise in African montane forests, Abera et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51324-7
Drivers of long-term changes in summer compound hot extremes in China: Climate change, urbanization, and vegetation greening, Ji et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107632
Quantifying Changes in the Arctic Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effects, Kim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040707
Responses of Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Changes, Zhou et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0600.1
The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change, Syphard et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310076121
Observations of climate change, effects
Air temperature change and drought effect on water tension and internal migration in Iran, Bashirian & Rahimi, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06842-4
Asymmetric Sea Surface Salinity Response to Global Warming: “Fresh Gets Fresher but Salty Hesitates”, Douville & Cheng, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107944
Evaluating warming trend over the tibetan plateau based on remotely sensed air temperature from 2001 to 2020, Xin et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03791-6
Global Warming Favors Rapid Burial of Silver in the Vietnam Upwelling Area, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl106411
Observed Changes in Extreme Precipitation Associated with U.S. Tropical Cyclones, Uehling & Schreck, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0327.1
Patterns and Trends in Northern Hemisphere River Ice Phenology from 2000 to 2021, Wang & Feng Feng, Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114346
Running to warmer-drier springs in the Greater Mekong Subregion as climate warms, Dong et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107606
Spatiotemporal analysis of compound droughts and heat waves in the Horn of Africa, Alasow et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8595
State of Wildfires 2023–2024, Jones et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024
The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51323-8
Warming summer temperatures are rapidly restructuring North American bumble bee communities, Hemberger & Williams Neal M. Williams Neal M. Williams Neal M. Williams, Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14492
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Investigating the potential of oxygen-isotope records from anthropogenic lakes as tracers of 20th century climate change, Tindall et al., The Holocene 10.1177/09596836241266435
Toward Low-Latency Estimation of Atmospheric CO2 Growth Rates Using Satellite Observations: Evaluating Sampling Errors of Satellite and In Situ Observing Approaches, Pandey et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2023av001145
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Analyzing climate zone changes in 21st-century China using CMIP6 ensemble projections, Ding et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07361-5
Detectable anthropogenic influence on the changes in structure of precipitation over China using CMIP6 models, Bai et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07368-y
Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios, Kamangar et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8
Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe, Lhotka et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0206.1
Global Warming–Induced Warmer Surface Water over the East China Sea Can Intensify Typhoons like Hinnamnor, Kim et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0240.1
Increasing frequency and precipitation intensity of convective storms in the Peruvian Central Andes: Projections from convection-permitting regional climate simulations, Huang et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4820
network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity, Ricard et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50813-z
Precipitation Over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated With Comprehensive GCMs, Bonan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109892
Suppression of Cold Air Outbreaks over the Interior of North America in a Warmer Climate, Hartig & Tziperman, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0477.1
The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, Sena et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07359-z
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Assessing the Tropospheric Temperature and Humidity Simulations in CMIP3/5/6 Models Using the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2.1 Data, Tian et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040536
Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements, Stammer et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0110.1
Impacts of Parameterizing Estuary Mixing on the Large-Scale Circulations in the Community Earth System Model, Vettoretti et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0365.1
Near-Term Mediterranean Summer Temperature Climate Projections: A Comparison of Constraining Methods, Cos et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0494.1
Spatially Resolved Temperature Response Functions to CO2 Emissions, Freese et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.168986213.37265300/v1
Uncertainties Inherent from Large-Scale Climate Projections in the Statistical Downscaling Projection of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity, Xi et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0475.1
Cryosphere & climate change
Annual mass changes for each glacier in the world from 1976 to 2023, Dussaillant et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-323
Annual Minimum Snow/Ice Extent Variations over Greenland since 2000: Ice Sheet, Peripheral Areas, and Relation to Ice Mass Balance, Trishchenko & Ungureanu, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0244.1
Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up, Muilwijk et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0
Grounding Zones: The “Inland” Dynamic Interface Between Seawater, Outlet Glaciers, Subglacial Meltwater Routing, and Ice-Shelf Processes, Parizek, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110427
Patterns and Trends in Northern Hemisphere River Ice Phenology from 2000 to 2021, Wang & Feng Feng, Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114346
Projection of a winter ice-free Barents-Kara Sea by CMIP6 models with the CCHZ-DISO method, Peng et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107631
Responses of the Arctic sea ice drift to general warming and intraseasonal oscillation in the local atmosphere, Li et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07395-9
Velocity of Greenland's Helheim Glacier Controlled Both by Terminus Effects and Subglacial Hydrology With Distinct Realms of Influence, Sommers et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109168
Sea level & climate change
Quantifying the Mean Sea Level, Tide, and Surge Contributions to Changing Coastal High Water Levels, Palmer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc020737
Regional Sea Level Response to External Forcings from the Twentieth to the Twenty-First Century, Liu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0427.1
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Late Pleistocene glacial terminations accelerated by proglacial lakes, Scherrenberg et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A Data-Driven Approach to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on a Tropical Mangrove in India, Deb Burman & Das, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007911
A frog in hot water: the effect of temperature elevation on the adrenal stress response of an African amphibian, Scheun et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.17847
Climate change and California’s terrestrial biodiversity, Harrison et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310074121
Dispersal limits poleward expansion of mangroves on the west coast of North America, Cavanaugh et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07288
Effects of climate on the phenology of Annona senegalensis Pers. (Annonaceae) and the distribution of associated insects in Burkina Faso, Dao et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70154
Fragile futures: Evaluating habitat and climate change response of hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) in the conservation landscape of mainland Asia, Abedin et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70160
Future Drought-Induced Tree Mortality Risk in Amazon Rainforest, Yao et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003740
Global warming and coastal protected areas: A study on phytoplankton abundance and sea surface temperature in different regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic Coastal Ocean, da Silveira Bueno et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11724
Hindcasting long-term data unveils the influence of a changing climate on small mammal communities, Lupone et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.13901
Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty, Liu et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004563
Mature oak forests retain the capacity of young forests to respond to elevated CO2, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02100-4
Modeling the Responses of Phytoplankton Assemblage and Biological Pump Efficiency to Environmental Changes in the Chukchi Borderland, Western Arctic Ocean, Luo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020780
Multi-decadal warming alters predator’s effect on prey community composition, Niu et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2024.0511
Observed declines in body size have differential effects on survival and recruitment, but no effect on population growth in tropical birds, Wilcox et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17455
Significant response of coral-associated bacteria and their carbohydrate-active enzymes diversity to coral bleaching, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106694
The global distribution and climate resilience of marine heterotrophic prokaryotes, Heneghan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50635-z
Warming summer temperatures are rapidly restructuring North American bumble bee communities, Hemberger & Williams Neal M. Williams Neal M. Williams Neal M. Williams, Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14492
Woodland expansion and upland management strategy dilemmas for biodiversity and carbon storage in the Cairngorms national park, Valette et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1411659
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
An Independent Evaluation of GHGSat Methane Emissions: Performance Assessment, McLinden et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039906
An optimal transformation method applied to diagnose the ocean carbon budget, Mackay et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-5987-2024
Annual and seasonal dynamic of carbon sequestration in a Patagonian steppe, Burek et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110184
Future Drought-Induced Tree Mortality Risk in Amazon Rainforest, Yao et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003740
Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion, Nielsen et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02074-3
Sapling recruitment as an indicator of carbon resiliency in forests of the northern USA, Harris et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.70077
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The source and accumulation of anthropogenic carbon in the U.S. East Coast, Li et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adl3169
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
CO2 solubility in aqueous solution of salts: Experimental study and thermodynamic modelling, Mousavi et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access 10.1002/ghg.2298
Comprehensive review of experimental studies, numerical modeling, leakage risk assessment, monitoring, and control in geological storage of carbon dioxide: Implications for effective CO2 deployment strategies, Sori et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2295
Enhanced silicate weathering accelerates forest carbon sequestration by stimulating the soil mineral carbon pump, Xu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17464
Numerical simulation of CO2 geological sequestration and CO2-ECBM in coal beds of Longtan Formation, Xiangzhong Depression, Hunan Province, China, Zou et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2296
Scientific land greening under climate change: Theory, modeling, and challenges, CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.003
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2 or other gas storage, OGAWA et al., TRANSACTIONS OF THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS Series B Open Access pdf 10.1299/kikaib.70.3204
Woodland expansion and upland management strategy dilemmas for biodiversity and carbon storage in the Cairngorms national park, Valette et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1411659
Decarbonization
Altered landscapes of a post?carbon future: Visual response imaginaries as experiences of energy infrastructure in the Orkney Islands, Davey, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103719
Assessing global drinking water potential from electricity-free solar water evaporation device, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51115-0
Challenges and opportunities in truck electrification revealed by big operational data, Zhao et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01602-x
Climate impacts of critical mineral supply chain bottlenecks for electric vehicle deployment, Woodley et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51152-9
From fields to markets: Solar power adoption impact on Nepali farmers' livelihoods, Lin & Kaewkhunok, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101537
Halfway up the ladder: Developer practices and perspectives on community engagement for utility-scale renewable energy in the United States, Nilson et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103706
Immature Offshore Wind Technology: UK Life Cycle Capacity Factor Analysis, Lorentzen et al., Wind Energy Open Access 10.1002/we.2939
Impact of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones on Future U.S. Offshore Wind Energy, Wang et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0080.1
Negotiating biophysical limits in the European Union’s bioeconomy: a critical analysis of two conflicts over regulating biomass use in EU policy, Fleischmann et al., Sustainability Science Open Access 10.1007/s11625-024-01543-0
Geoengineering climate
An assessment of ocean alkalinity enhancement using aqueous hydroxides: kinetics, efficiency, and precipitation thresholds, Ringham et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3551-2024
Do small outdoor geoengineering experiments require governance?, Jinnah et al., Science 10.1126/science.adn2853
On Thin Ice: Solar Geoengineering to Manage Tipping Element Risks in the Cryosphere by 2040, Smith et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004797
Climate change communications & cognition
A collaborative adaptation game for promoting climate action: Minions of Disruptions™, Sillanpää et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access 10.5194/gc-7-167-2024
Can large language models estimate public opinion about global warming? An empirical assessment of algorithmic fidelity and bias, Lee et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000429
Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey, Yang et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.17631
Should we change the term we use for “climate change”? Evidence from a national U.S. terminology experiment, Bruine de Bruin et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03786-3
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Agricultural soils in climate change mitigation: comparing action-based and results-based programmes for carbon sequestration, Block et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03787-2
Climate change mitigation potentials of wood industry related measures in Hungary, Király et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access 10.1007/s11027-024-10161-1
Combating climate change through sustainable cattle ranching in the global south: The role of societal corporatism, Rudel, Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-024-02051-2
Cultivating climate resilience in California agriculture: Adaptations to an increasingly volatile water future, Medellín-Azuara et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310079121
Decomposition and scenario analysis of agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang, China, Zhang et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.17856
Impact of unprecedented drought in intensive subsistence agriculture and food security: issues, policy practice gap and the way forward, Chowdhuri & Pal, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05130-2
Lumpfish, Cyclopterus lumpus, distribution in the Gulf of Maine, USA: observations from fisheries independent and dependent catch data, White et al., Open Access pdf 10.32942/x25p7q
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Reducing climate change impacts from the global food system through diet shifts, Li et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02084-1
Soil organic carbon formation efficiency from straw/stover and manure input and its drivers: Estimates from long-term data in global croplands, Yin et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17460
The necessity of coupling the legacy effect with temperature response in crop phenology models, Wu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104545
Win-wins or trade-offs? Site and strategy determine carbon and local ecosystem service benefits for protection, restoration, and agroforestry, Hassanat et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1172790/v1
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Assessing the future probable maximum precipitation in Utah under global warming, Gu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8554
Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe, Lhotka et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0206.1
Observed Changes in Extreme Precipitation Associated with U.S. Tropical Cyclones, Uehling & Schreck, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0327.1
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico is more likely during marine heatwaves, Radfar et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01578-2
Spatiotemporal analysis of compound droughts and heat waves in the Horn of Africa, Alasow et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8595
The interplay between medicanes and the Mediterranean Sea in the presence of sea surface temperature anomalies, Jangir et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107625
Uncertainty evaluation of dam inflow under the influence of climate change (study area: Latiyan Dam), Fardanesh et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-024-05933-w
Climate change economics
Promoting carbon neutrality in China: do financial development, foreign direct investment, and industrialization play a material role?, Yan et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1342612
Renewable energy and CO2 emissions in developing and developed nations: a panel estimate approach, Jie & Rabnawaz, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1405001
Studying the risk spillover effects of the carbon market and high-carbon-emission industries under economic uncertainty, Han et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1407135
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Beyond stakeholder consultations: Red-green coalition democratizes Maine's offshore wind energy policymaking, Kashwan & Lee, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103692
Defending the climate cause within the state: the ministry of ecology and the drafting of France’s national low-carbon strategy (2017–2020), Poupeau, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2386795
Effects of European emissions trading on the transformation of primary steelmaking: Assessment of economic and climate impacts in a case study from Germany, Graupner et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13544
Enhancing multi-mode transport emission inventories: Combining open-source data with traditional approaches, Lopes et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102097
Estimating the uncertainty of the greenhouse gas emission accounts in Global Multi-Regional Input-Output analysis, Schulte et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-473
Fair enough? Unraveling justice perspectives on Germany's energy system transformation, Kerker et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103691
Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints, Bertram et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4
Industrialisation in Africa: The role of energy transition, Ongo Nkoa & Fonguen-Kong-Ngoh, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114271
Prospects for Markets for Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes under the Paris Agreement, Strand, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access 10.1007/s10640-024-00899-2
Retrofitting homes in Ontario entails significant embodied emissions: new policies needed, McDiarmid & Parker, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2390520
The challenge of ratcheting up climate ambitions: Implementing the ‘experimentalist‘ EU energy and climate governance regulation, Bocquillon & Maltby, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2386796
The importance of natural land carbon sinks in modelling future emissions pathways and assessing individual country progress towards net-zero emissions targets, van der Ploeg & Haigh, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1379046
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate change and California sustainability—Challenges and solutions, Franklin & MacDonald, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2405458121
Do climate adaptation programmes potentially exacerbate rural inequality? Identifying beneficiaries of a drought mitigation scheme in Maharashtra, India, Pritchard et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2388052
How to Engage and Adapt to Unprecedented Extremes, Matte et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0138.1
Mitigating climate risk in the Mekong delta: insights from a large-scale communication field study in Vietnam, Lede et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2365287
Relational geographies of urban unsustainability: The entanglement of California’s housing crisis with WUI growth and climate change, Greenberg et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310080121
Scenario planning for climate adaptation and management: a high-level synthesis and standardization of methodology, Oriol et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1415070
Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change, Thorne et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2310077121
Utilizing land-use indicators for local government adaptation: Tainan City as a case study, Huang et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100643
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate Change and Health: Perspectives From Ghana, Akakpo et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2024gh001030
Climate change and public health in California: A structured review of exposures, vulnerable populations, and adaptation measures, Jerrett et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2310081121
Exploring the risk of heat stress in high school pre-season sports training, Johannesburg, South Africa, Raines & Fitchett, International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access 10.1007/s00484-024-02748-9
National policies to accelerate climate action in US healthcare, Cerceo & Singh, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02105-z
Pollen effects in a changing climate: Ragweed pollen exposure and sleepiness in immunotherapy patients of a Southeastern Michigan allergy clinic, Larson et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-024-02737-y
What drives adaptive behaviours during heatwaves? A systematic review with a meta-analysis, Bourret Soto & Guillon, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2388225
Other
Government participation in virtual negotiations: evidence from IPCC approval sessions, Bayer et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03790-7
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Accurately interpreting IPCC assessments, Blok et al., Science 10.1126/science.adp4153
All Inclusive Climate Policy in a Growing Economy: The Role of Human Health, Bretschger & Komarov , Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access 10.1007/s10640-024-00910-w
Editorial: Citizen science and climate services in cities: current state, new approaches and future avenues for enhancing urban climate resilience, Schuetze et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2024.1461334
State of polar climate in 2023, DING et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.004
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Clean Energy Investing in America, American Clean Power Association
Between August 2022 and July 2024, the U.S. clean energy industry announced $500 billion in new investments, spurring the American economy and creating tens of thousands of new jobs. The authors find that the industry is leading a domestic manufacturing renaissance, with plans to build or expand over 160 domestic manufacturing facilities, along with announcements of more than 100,000 new manufacturing jobs nationwide. These announcements are quickly becoming realized, with nearly half of the announced manufacturing facilities or expansions already online and operating or under construction, 20,000 active new manufacturing jobs, and $75 billion in clean power projects built so far.
Fueling the Opposition How Fossil Fuel Interests Are Fighting to Kill Wind and Solar Farms Before They Are Built, David Anderson, The Energy and Policy Institute
The author identifies some of the major players involved in disinformation campaigns targeting renewable energy projects and technologies, including funders from the coal, petroleum, and methane gas industries; networks of front groups and political operatives paid by these fossil fuel interests; and the cadre of top anti-wind and anti-solar activists who have coordinated closely with these front groups and operatives for over a decade. The author helps to answer frequently asked questions about the role the fossil fuel industry has played in stoking opposition to renewable energy projects and comes at a time when many of these same opponents are escalating their attacks and seeking to derail the Inflation Reduction Act’s historic investment in renewables.
The False Promise and Potential Health Harms of Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2 EOR) as a Tool of Climate Mitigation, Science and Environmental Health Network and the Bold Alliance
Using increasing amounts of newly subsidized carbon dioxide (CO2) to remove oil from the ground is the next phase in the fossil fuel industry’s bid to extend the use of fossil fuels far into the future. While the industry claims that carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2 EOR) is a tool of climate mitigation, it perpetuates oil and gas extraction and generates more greenhouse gases. Subsidized by public money through excessively generous tax credits, CO2 EOR not only exacerbates climate change but also causes unusual public health and environmental damage. The authors explore the history and geology of CO2 EOR, describe the public health, environment, and climate impacts, and conclude that our commitment to future generations requires a halt to this practice.
The Green Power Gap. Achieving an Energy Abundant Future for Everyone, The Rockefeller Foundation
Today, 3.8 billion people are living with insufficient access to electricity, significantly limiting their ability to achieve the levels of well-being and opportunity seen throughout the developed world. This population is considered ‘energy poor’ and the 8,700 terawatt-hours (TWh) “Green Power Gap” explored by the authors represents the clean energy capacity that must be built across 72 countries by 2050 if we hope to achieve both our global development and climate goals. In addition to estimating the amount of clean power that these countries – more than half of which are in Africa and nearly a quarter in Asia – must deploy to create a future of energy abundance, the authors also explore the “Green Window of Opportunity.”
Climate Adaptation Barriers and Needs Experienced by Northwest Coastal Tribes: Key Findings from Tribal Listening Sessions, Hasert et al., University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians, and Washington Sea Grant
Among the many effects of human-driven climate change is rising seas. Warmer water takes up more space, and melting or receding polar ice sheets add water to the oceans. Meanwhile, a warmer atmosphere also leads to more destructive coastal storms. Communities worldwide are adapting by moving away from vulnerable shores. Many Tribes in Washington and Oregon call coastal areas home, meaning they are especially affected by climate change. They also face changes in wildfire risk and in changes to fisheries that are economically and culturally important. The authors compile the experiences of Washington and Oregon coastal Tribes as they prepare for climate change.
U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2024 Status Update, Galen Barbose, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
The author provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards which has been expanded to also cover 100% clean electricity standards adopted by a growing number of states. The author describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs.
International Public Opinion on Climate Change: Differences by Gender and Income/Emission Levels, Verner et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
In high per-capita emissions and income countries, more women (36%) are Alarmed about climate change than men (30%). In high per-capita emissions and income countries, women are less Doubtful or Dismissive (11%) about climate change than men (20%). In low per-capita emissions and income countries, women (44%) and men (45%) are about equally Alarmed about climate change.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
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