Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2024
Posted on 8 August 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming, Verbitsky et al., Earth System Dynamics:
There is no more consequential scientific matter today than global warming. The societal and policy implications, however, hinge upon the attribution of that warming to human activity and, specifically, continued societal reliance on the burning of fossil fuels. It was recently suggested that this warming could be explained by the non-anthropogenic factor of seismic activity. If that is the case, it would have profound implications. We have assessed the validity of the claim using a statistical technique (the method of conditional dispersion) that evaluates the existence of causal connections between variables, finding no evidence for any causal relationship between seismic activity and global warming.
Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times, Bierman et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
The persistence and size of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) through the Pleistocene is uncertain. This is important because reconstructing changes in the GrIS determines its contribution to sea level rise during prior warm climate periods and informs future projections. To understand better the history of Greenland’s ice, we analyzed glacial till collected in 1993 from below 3 km of ice at Summit, Greenland. The till contains plant fragments, wood, insect parts, fungi, and cosmogenic nuclides showing that the bed of the GrIS at Summit is a long-lived, stable land surface preserving a record of deposition, exposure, and interglacial ecosystems. Knowing that central Greenland was tundra-covered during the Pleistocene informs the understanding of Arctic biosphere response to deglaciation.
Evidence of Ecosystem Tipping Point on St. Lawrence Island: Widespread Lake Drainage Events After 2018, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
Influenced by climate change, numerous lakes in permafrost regions are draining, showing significant spatial variability. This study focuses on St. Lawrence Island, where over the last two decades, 771 of 3,271 lakes have drained—a rate around 40 times higher than across the entire northern permafrost region. The surge in lake drainage began in 2018, coinciding with record low sea ice extent in the Bering Sea and unprecedented bird mortalities. Using satellite imagery and machine learning methods, we analyzed drainage events to identify the climatic drivers and potential climate thresholds affecting the island's lake ecosystems. Our findings indicate that autumn peak temperatures above 6°C more than triple the drainage probability, and warming-induced permafrost thawing may be the direct driver of lake drainage. This research highlights the vulnerability of Arctic lake ecosystems to climate change and assists in developing predictive models for permafrost response, crucial for mitigating impacts on Arctic communities.
Climate change engagement of scientists, Dablander et al., Nature Climate Change:
Climate change is one of the biggest threats to humanity. Scientists are well positioned to help address it beyond conducting academic research, yet little is known about their wider engagement with the topic. We investigate scientists’ engagement with climate change using quantitative and qualitative analyses of a large-scale survey (N = 9,220) across 115 countries, all fields and all career stages. Many scientists already engage in individual lifestyle changes, but fewer engage in advocacy or activism. On the basis of our quantitative and qualitative results, we propose a two-step model of engagement to better understand why. Scientists must first overcome intellectual and practical barriers to be willing to engage, and then overcome additional barriers to actually engage. On the basis of this model, we provide concrete recommendations for increasing scientists’ engagement with climate change.
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks, Möller et al., Nature Communications:
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term.
Rebuilding Ukraine’s energy supply in a secure, economic, and decarbonised way, Tröndle et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability:
Since Russia's 2022 invasion, Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure has faced systematic attack and requires urgent and strategic reconstruction. This study confronts the dual challenges of rebuilding Ukraine's energy system rapidly to mitigate civilian and economic disruption while aligning this to long-term goals of sustainability and energy security. We demonstrate that Ukraine can readily meet future energy demands through a fully renewable electrified system at costs comparable to those from fossil fuels and nuclear power. Contrary to previous reliance on high-carbon energy sources, we find a diversified renewable energy portfolio, including significant solar photovoltaic and wind contributions, can efficiently meet growing energy demands and position Ukraine as an energy exporter, capitalising on its geographical advantages.
From this week's government and NGO section:
Climate Unscripted. The Reality of Climate Change and Sustainability Solutions in Unscripted TV, Rogers et al., USC Annenberg Norman Lear Center:
Building upon prior research on climate change issues in scripted film/TV, the authors examine the prevalence of sustainability and climate-related topics in unscripted television. By examining sustainability-related keywords over six months spanning 200,000 hours of unscripted programming, the authors found more than 28,000 keyword mentions across all unscripted TV genres — with home shows, docuseries, and food shows leading the way.
Investing in Nature to Fight Climate Change and Help Communities Thrive, Hayes et al., Stanford Law School’s Law and Policy Lab, the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, and the Bezos Earth Fund
The authors describe the shortcomings in how nature-based solutions are measured, monitored, reported on, and verified (MMRV) as a fundamental weakness that is holding back the deployment of nature-based solutions. Measurement and verification deficiencies limit confidence in claims that investing in “climate-smart” agricultural or forestry practices or prioritizing investments in restoring natural coastal barriers, will produce measurable and confirmable carbon emissions reductions or removals. This opens the door to criticism of governmental incentive programs; corporate “insetting” claims regarding low-carbon practices in supply chains; and carbon credit claims in voluntary carbon markets. This is unfortunate as nature-based solutions can and should play a major role in reducing GHG emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere, while often also generating climate resilience and other ecosystem service co-benefits.
134 articles in 60 journals by 805 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Ice Sheet-Albedo Feedback Estimated From Most Recent Deglaciation, Booth et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109953
Moist heatwaves intensified by entrainment of dry air that limits deep convection, Duan et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01498-y
Navigating climate complexity and its control via hyperchaotic dynamics in a 4D Caputo fractional model, Naik et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-68769-x
Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data, Ben-Yami et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adl4841
Unveiling the Dominant Factors Controlling the Long-Term Changes in Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rates, Song et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108344
Observations of climate change, effects
Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming, Verbitsky et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-15-1015-2024
Differential intensification of dry and wet climatology temperatures over the indian subcontinent: A historical and climate change perspective, Prabhakar & Mitra, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05117-z
Evidence of Ecosystem Tipping Point on St. Lawrence Island: Widespread Lake Drainage Events After 2018, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110161
Rapid Arctic warming and extreme weather events in Eastern Europe and Western to Central Asia, Alizadeh et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07367-z
Regimes of Precipitation Change Over Europe and the Mediterranean, André et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.170000349.97043887/v1
Summer Monsoon Drying Accelerates India's Groundwater Depletion Under Climate Change, Mishra et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004516
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A high-resolution pan-Arctic meltwater discharge dataset from 1950 to 2021, Igneczi & Bamber Bamber, Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-169
High-resolution global shipping emission inventory by Shipping Emission Inventory Model (SEIM), Yi et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-258
IAPv4 ocean temperature and ocean heat content gridded dataset, Cheng et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3517-2024
Southern Ocean sea ice, icebergs, and meteorological data from maritime sources for the period 1929 to 1940, Divine et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.265
The ERA5 global reanalysis from 1940 to 2022, Soci et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4803
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
2021 Heatwave Over Western North America: Structural Uncertainty and Internal Variability in GCM Projections of Humidex and Temperature Extremes, Jeong et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004541
Converged ensemble simulations of climate: possible trends in total solar irradiance cannot explain global warming alone, Drótos et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2024.1240784
Development of Polar Lows in Future Climate Scenarios over the Barents Sea, Lin et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0027.1
Effect of global warming on thunderstorm frequency in Bangladesh, Jahan et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06854-0
Feedbacks, Pattern Effects, and Efficacies in a Large Ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL Historical Simulations, Mutton et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041137
Influence of Regional Sea Ice Loss on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex, Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040571
Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to stringent climate mitigation, Romanzini-Bezerra & Maycock, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50648-8
The radiative feedback continuum from Snowball Earth to an ice-free hothouse, Eisenman & Armour, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50406-w
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output, Findell et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Arctic September Sea Ice Concentration Biases in CMIP6 Models and Their Relationships with Other Model Variables, Frankignoul et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0452.1
Diagnosing drivers of tropical precipitation biases in coupled climate model simulations, Respati et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07355-3
Elevation-dependent biases of raw and bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX regional climate models in the European Alps, Matiu et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07376-y
Evaluation of RegCM simulation ensemble using different parameterization scheme combinations: a case study for an extremely wet year in the Carpathian region, Kalmár et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07333-9
The Impact of Model Horizontal Resolution on Simulating Regional Climate Over East Asia Using Variable-Resolution CESM2, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040308
Cryosphere & climate change
Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event, Rhoades et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07351-7
Recent tropical Andean glacier retreat is unprecedented in the Holocene, Gorin et al., Science 10.1126/science.adg7546
Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter, Siew et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01582-6
Synergistic atmosphere-ocean-ice influences have driven the 2023 all-time Antarctic sea-ice record low, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01523-3
Sea level & climate change
The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea levels, Gomez et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adn1470
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times, Bierman et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2407465121
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A satellite-derived baseline of photosynthetic life across Antarctica, Walshaw et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01492-4
Assessing the risk of climate maladaptation for Canadian polar bears, Rivkin et al., Open Access pdf 10.32942/x22609
Climate change alters social-ecological trade-offs in achieving ocean futures' targets, Zeng et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17442
Climate change and C4 and C3 grasses in a midlatitude dryland steppe, Anderson et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/au.171355878.84847657/v1
Climate change is associated with higher phytoplankton biomass and longer blooms in the West Antarctic Peninsula, Ferreira et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50381-2
Climatic controls on metabolic constraints in the ocean, Mongwe et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3477-2024
Evidence of Ecosystem Tipping Point on St. Lawrence Island: Widespread Lake Drainage Events After 2018, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110161
High heat tolerance, evaporative cooling, and stomatal decoupling regulate canopy temperature and their safety margins in three European oak species, Gauthey et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17439
Intensifying aridity induces tradeoffs among biodiversity and ecosystem services supported by trees, Ding & Eldridge, Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.13894
Marine heatwave-driven mass mortality and microbial community reorganisation in an ecologically important temperate sponge, Bell et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17417
Natural coral recovery despite negative population growth, Mulla et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4368
Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability, Grodofzig et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-15-913-2024
Plant response to decreasing soil moisture under rising atmospheric CO2 levels, Jahren & Schubert, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01576-4
Rare Earth Elements and Warming: Implications for Adult Mussel Health and Sperm Quality, Leite et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106666
Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies, Gregor et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17431
Reconstructing 120 years of climate change impacts on Joshua tree flowering, Yoder et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14478
Response of a Terrestrial Polar Ecosystem to the March 2022 Antarctic Weather Anomaly, Barrett et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004306
The interaction between warming and enrichment accelerates food-web simplification in freshwater systems, Bonnaffé et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14480
Trees in cooler regions are more vulnerable to thermal stress: Evidence from temperate poplar plantations in Northern China during the 2022 heatwaves, Kong et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110181
Variability in thermal tolerance of clutches from different mothers indicates adaptation potential to climate warming in sea turtles, Kynoch et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17447
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Assessing the Impacts of Reservoirs on Riverine Dissolved Organic Matter: Insights From the Largest Reservoir in the Pearl River, Yi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008199
Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Budgets of Europe: Trends, Interannual and Spatial Variability, and Their Drivers, Lauerwald et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.171320253.37867733/v1
Climatic Drivers for the Variation of Gross Primary Productivity Across Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United States, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008168
Demographic but not competitive time lags can transiently amplify climate-induced changes in vegetation carbon storage, Levine et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17432
Long-term trends of pH, alkalinity, and hydrogen ion concentration in an upwelling-dominated coastal ecosystem: Ría de Vigo, NW Spain, Cameselle et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-68694-z
Partial asynchrony of coniferous forest carbon sources and sinks at the intra-annual time scale, Silvestro et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49494-5
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The response of terrestrial vegetation carbon use efficiency to global environmental changes, Zhang & Ye, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104537
Towards an ecosystem capacity to stabilise organic carbon in soils, Poeplau et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17453
Urban Sources of Methane Characterised by Long-term Eddy Covariance Observations in Central Europe, Stichaner et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120743
Using eddy covariance observations to determine the carbon sequestration characteristics of subalpine forests in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, Zhu et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3509-2024
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Climate change mitigation strategy through blue carbon in seagrasses ecosystem, Red Sea Coast, Egypt, Elmahdy et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10150-4
Sensitivity analysis of parameters on carbon dioxide desorption processes from aqueous monoethanolamine solution, Zanone & de Paiva, Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2299
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2 or other gas storage, OGAWA et al., TRANSACTIONS OF THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS Series B Open Access pdf 10.1299/kikaib.70.3204
The politics of carbon management in Austria: Emerging fault lines on carbon capture, storage, utilization and removal, Brad et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103697
Decarbonization
Analysis of hydrogen supply and demand in China's energy transition towards carbon neutrality, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.013
Climate responsive insulation strategies: a comparative analysis for enhanced energy conservation and reduced environmental footprint in Indian urban contexts, Shrimali & Agrawal Kumar, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05267-0
Development of low-carbon technologies in China’s integrated hydrogen supply and power system, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.012
Integration of Renewable Energy in Microgrids and Smart Grids in Deregulated Power Systems: A Comparative Exploration, Dawn et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202400088
Optimization of India’s offshore wind farm capacity density - a case study, Anangapal et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05278-x
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate change debates, Coady & Corry Corry Muselli Hafenscher MacKinnon Ruiu Cullis Bows Hellsten , Open Access 10.1057/9781137326287
Climate change engagement of scientists, Dablander et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02091-2
Climate change risks illustrated by the IPCC “burning embers”, Marbaix et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-312
Development and validation of the Domain-specific Climate Change Distress Scale, Weiß et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102392
Empathy for wildlife: The importance of the individual, Smith et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-024-02017-4
Exposure to climate events and mental health: Risk and protective factors from the California Health Interview Survey, Zhao et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5q11n
GC Insights: Communicating long-term changes in local climate risk using a physically plausible causal chain, Hawkins et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access 10.5194/gc-7-161-2024
Pulling together or pulling apart? Understanding the heterogenous collective action frames of local climate activists through a Q methodology study, NELSON, Special Care in Dentistry Open Access 10.1111/j.1754-4505.1988.tb00689.x
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Assessment of climate change impact and resource-use efficiency of lettuce production in vertical farming and greenhouse production in Finland: a case study, Joensuu et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access 10.1007/s11367-024-02343-5
Carbon leakage in agriculture: when can a carbon border adjustment mechanism help?, Fournier Gabela et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2387237
Critical climate-stress moments for semi-arid farming systems in India, Srinidhi et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-024-02281-w
Impact of climate-smart agriculture practices on multidimensional poverty among coastal farmers in Bangladesh, Islam & Farjana, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01570-w
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Pathways towards low-carbon sustainable agriculture: how farmland size affects net carbon emissions, Gao & Xie, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2385488
Perceptions of and adaptation to climate change in mountainous agro-pastoral communities: The case of the Afghan central highlands, Aliyar et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100639
Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies, Gregor et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17431
The centennial legacy of land-use change on organic carbon stocks of German agricultural soils, Emde et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17444
The impact of climate smart agriculture practices on the technical efficiency of wheat farmers in northwestern Ethiopia, Alemayehu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05288-9
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Assessing the effect of climate change on drought and runoff using a machine learning models, Jahangiri et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-024-05917-w
Drought variability in Pakistan: Navigating historical patterns in a changing climate with global teleconnections, Latif et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05138-8
Evaluating the long-term influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment: a GCM-based analysis, Islam & Chakma, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05286-x
Flood reconstruction – The unexpected rather frequent event at River Ahr in July 2021, Roggenkamp et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104541
Regimes of Precipitation Change Over Europe and the Mediterranean, André et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.170000349.97043887/v1
Summer Monsoon Drying Accelerates India's Groundwater Depletion Under Climate Change, Mishra et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004516
Temporal variability of aridity in Argentina during the period 1961–2020, Blanco & Doyle, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107613
Understanding Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Salinization of Low-Lying Coastal Groundwater Systems, Seibert et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004737
Which droughts are becoming more frequent? A copula entropy analysis on the return period of droughts in Europe, Alencar & Paton, Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06848-y
Climate change economics
Assessing climate change-induced losses and damages to coastal ecosystem services: Empirical evidence from Manpura Island, Bangladesh, Bhowmik et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100641
Environmental kuznets curve revisited in the presence of threshold effect of institutional quality, Subramaniam et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05222-z
Estimating economic losses from perceived heat stress in a global south country, Bangladesh, Bardhan et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102072
Exploring the complications of climate change funding in Sub-Saharan African countries, Adom et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access 10.1007/s11027-024-10155-z
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Blessing or curse energy sustainability: how does climate change affect renewable energy consumption in China?, Ran Yi & An Chen, Energy, Development & Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05271-4
Can a just transition achieve decarbonization? Explaining fossil fuel community opposition in the Canadian Oil Sands, Muzzerall, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2024.2387419
Carbon capability revisited: Theoretical developments and empirical evidence, Hampton & Whitmarsh Whitmarsh, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102895
Climate change considerations in environmental impacts assessment (EIA) practices: learning from climate sensitive projects in Rufiji Basin Tanzania, Shimwela & Lema, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad6737
Decarbonizing China’s cities with the lowest cost, Xie et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03487-4
Electric vehicle and supply equipment adoption dynamics in the United States, Afzal & Hawkins Hawkins, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114275
Equal per capita carbon dividends and the waste objection, Corvino, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2384781
Impact of ideology on individuals’ attitudes to a climate-motivated tax on food, Jagers et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2385484
Local versus outsider developers: Impact on development duration and its’ implications for community acceptance of solar PV plants in South Korea, Ki & Yun, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114272
Net-zero transport dialogue: Emerging developments and the puzzles they present, Dua, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101516
Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies, Gregor et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17431
Relational processes for transformative climate justice policymaking: insights from a Western Australian community of practice, Wrigley et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2385486
Renewable energy transition and regional integration: Energizing the pathway to sustainable development, Ullah et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114270
Solar energy surge: The socio-economic determinants of the photovoltaic systems growth in Australia, Fuentes et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103695
The interplay between just energy transition and community engagement: Assessing collaborative pathways in Greece, Poland and Bulgaria, Topaloglou et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103708
The paradox of permission: Why governments allow foreign actors to promote solar energy projects in disputed cities, Rettig & Herman, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103707
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Challenges to anticipatory coastal adaptation for transformative nature-based solutions, Cotton et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102893
Climate change adaptation attributes across scales and inter-institutional networks: insights from national and state level water management institutions in India, Azhoni et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access 10.1007/s11027-024-10156-y
Climate storylines as a tool for interdisciplinary dialogue on risk decision-making: Analyzing a severe drought in southeastern South America, Fossa Riglos et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103848
International human rights and climate change (policies): Challenging the concept of vulnerability, Mayrhofer, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103847
Rare and highly destructive wildfires drive human migration in the U.S., McConnell et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50630-4
Removing development incentives in risky areas promotes climate adaptation, Druckenmiller et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02082-3
Strategies for navigating competing climate science in human rights courts, Schuldt et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000462
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe, van der Deure et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17434
Exposure to climate events and mental health: Risk and protective factors from the California Health Interview Survey, Zhao et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5q11n
Geographical Patterns in Mortality Impacts Due To Heatwaves of Different Characteristics in Spanish Cities, Paredes-Fortuny et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2024gh001092
Other
Expansive learning of climate scientists towards transdisciplinarity, McClure et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100642
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks, Möller et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
Coral reefs deserve evidence-based management not heroic interference, Streit et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02063-6
Ethics in climate AI: From theory to practice, Acquaviva et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000465
Rebuilding Ukraine’s energy supply in a secure, economic, and decarbonised way, Tröndle et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad6738
The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics, Masson-Delmotte, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Investing in Nature to Fight Climate Change and Help Communities Thrive, Hayes et al., Stanford Law School’s Law and Policy Lab, the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, and the Bezos Earth Fund
The authors describe the shortcomings in how nature-based solutions are measured, monitored, reported on, and verified (MMRV) as a fundamental weakness that is holding back the deployment of nature-based solutions. Measurement and verification deficiencies limit confidence in claims that investing in “climate-smart” agricultural or forestry practices or prioritizing investments in restoring natural coastal barriers, will produce measurable and confirmable carbon emissions reductions or removals. This opens the door to criticism of governmental incentive programs; corporate “insetting” claims regarding low-carbon practices in supply chains; and carbon credit claims in voluntary carbon markets. This is unfortunate as nature-based solutions can and should play a major role in reducing GHG emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere, while often also generating climate resilience and other ecosystem service co-benefits.
Climate Unscripted. The Reality of Climate Change and Sustainability Solutions in Unscripted TV, Rogers et al., USC Annenberg Norman Lear Center
Building upon prior research on climate change issues in scripted film/TV, the authors examine the prevalence of sustainability and climate-related topics in unscripted television. By examining sustainability-related keywords over six months spanning 200,000 hours of unscripted programming, the authors found more than 28,000 keyword mentions across all unscripted TV genres — with home shows, docuseries, and food shows leading the way.
Aligning Corporate Value Chains to Global Climate Goals, Pineda et al., Science Based Targets initiative
The authors offer an overview of the status and current practices of scope 3 target setting among companies with SBTi-validated targets. They discuss the challenges and opportunities associated with Scope 3 target setting and explore potential solutions to enhance the effectiveness and impact of the value chain decarbonization to support the SBTi in delivering its' mission “to drive science-based climate action in the corporate sector consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.”
Evidence Synthesis Report Part 1: Carbon Credits, Borjigin-Wang et al., Science Based Targets initiative
The authors present a synthesis of the relevant evidence on carbon credits submitted to the Science Based Targets initiative during the 2023 call for evidence on the effectiveness of environmental attribute certificates in corporate climate targets.
Critical Minerals: Status, Challenges, and Policy Options for Recovery from Nontraditional Sources, Bothwell et al., Government Accountability Office
Critical minerals are essential for technologies used across the economy, including in energy, defense, health care, and electronics. However, the U.S. supply is highly dependent on foreign countries. One strategy for increasing and diversifying the domestic supply of critical minerals is by recovering them from nontraditional sources. The authors conducted a technology assessment that presents (1) the benefits of recovering critical minerals from nontraditional sources; (2) the status of available technologies to use on mining wastes, coal wastes, and geothermal and other brines; (3) the challenges of recovery from nontraditional sources; and (4) options policymakers could consider to help address the challenges.
ChargerHelp Annual Reliability Report. The State of EV Charging and the Driver Experience, ChargerHelp
The authors tackle critical reliability issues in the expanding U.S. EV charging network, now with over 175,000 ports. Analyzing 19 million data points, they identify key challenges and offer actionable strategies to enhance system reliability. They explored three interrelated categories including a) the discrepancy between reported uptime and true uptime, b) how reliability varies by electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) age, state, and network, and c) the drivers of downtime and what it takes to improve uptime. Findings include true uptime is often lower than reported uptime; software inaccuracy compounds reliability shortcomings, reducing driver confidence; equipment age correlates with downtime and how reliability varies geographically by state; charging reliability varies dramatically by network; the causes of downtime and failed charge sessions are multifaceted, although certain problems dominate; and addressing “problem” stations can alleviate a disproportionate burden on EVSE O&M.
Solar in the Southeast, Pohnan et al., Cleanenergyorg
The authors describe the critical role that utilities, policymakers, and customers have in the growing solar market in the Southeast. Utilities in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee operate as monopolies and are granted the responsibility and control over power supplies. Consequently, the location of a home or business is the primary determinant not only of which utility will supply the electricity but also the amount of solar within that portfolio. To provide a normalized comparison among hundreds of different utilities in the Southeast, the authors ranked utilities based on solar watts per customer (W/C). This illustrates the amount of solar power sourced to a utility or state relative to the amount of retail customers. As a regional organization. The authors then document current progress and trends at both utility and state levels, as well as identify policies and practices to drive continued solar growth in the Southeast.
The Worsening Urban-Rural Divide: The Role of Local Government in EV Charging Infrastructure, Lee et al., CivicPulse
The authors show that more rural, conservative counties are significantly less likely to have EV charging infrastructure than more urban, liberal counties. The authors shine a light on the role that local governments across the United States play in developing electric vehicle charging infrastructure nationwide. Local governments with existing charging stations are more likely to report an intent to take action in the future to procure additional stations. Local governments without stations are twice as likely to cite a lack of technical knowledge as a barrier.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
Suggestions
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Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
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