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Comments 124851 to 124900:

  1. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Humanity Rules, you say in reference to the 'atest Watts/D'Aleo publication: Obviously prepared before the Mennes 2010 paper and based on the surfacestation.org project so I guess we now have both sides of the argument. The point of the top post is that Watts has always relied on anecdotes and photos to forward his argument that the official US temp records are unreliable, owing to UHI and microsite issues (mainly UHI). But never done the necessary number-crunching to make an actual quantitative comparison. We know from his own words that photos and anecdotes are insufficient. "...Actually what we want to find are the BEST stations. Those are the CRN1 and 2 rated stations. Having a large and well distributed sample size of the best stations will help definitively answer the question about how much bias may exist as a result of the contribution of badly sited stations." I learn from the latest publication you linked that:
    As of October 25, 2009, 1067 of the 1221 stations (87.4%) had been evaluated by the surfacestations.org volunteers and evaluated using the Climate Reference Network (CRN) criteria.
    And no analysis has been done. Again. Watts promised to run a time series of the good stations when 75% of the total had been surveyed. He had an opportunity to do this in the Heartland Institute booklet he published last year. He had the opportunity to do that in this latest publication but has not. He has the opportunity to do it at his blogsite any day of the week for a year. He could release his data and let others do it, as was being done a couple of years ago, when analysis of the then 17 good stations surveyed found a close fit to the official temp records. Ironic, isn't it, that he won't release his (meta) data. So, no, we are not now hearing the 'other side' of the argument on the US temp record. We are hearing the same old talking points, seeing the same photos and single-site graphs, and the same old lack of number-crunching that would "definitively answer the question about how much bias may exist as a result of the contribution of badly sited stations" [A Watts - 11/08]. Surfacestations.org, while highly agenda-driven, is nevertheless a useful contribution to station rating. It is news to no one that there are siting and other issues with the USHCN. GISS and NOAA attempt to adjust for these problems when compiling the temp records. Watts claims that they fail do that well, and denigrates and smears the scientists involved. In order to corroborate his claim he must run the analysis as he outlined in 2008, and promised on many occasions. It is now generally felt, by those paying attention, that he has done this analysis and discovered much the same as Menne et al and other publications on the same subject. And therefore he won't publicise that result. He has allowed my posts querying him on this (all but one, and I am unfailingly polite on this issue), but he never answers them. And none of his supporters ever takes up the call, or even replies to my requests. John V likewise made an appeal last year, and Watts immediately made it personal. It's like there is collective cognitive dissonance on this. No one wants to go there, but it is the fundamental analysis that must be done because it goes to the heart of Watts inquiry. It is the raison d'etre for surfacestations.org, and the inspiration for all that has followed in the land of Watts. When will he show us the money?
  2. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    My point, HR, is that the correlation between burning more fossil fuels & wealth generation is not as strong as you seem to think. We had industrialization in Europe & the US for at least a century before the standard of living rose for average workers. This improvement came about because ordinary workers fought-tooth & nail-for better pay & conditions, & access to affordable education & health care, not to mention access to social security. Even today employers would like nothing more than to take this all away from us or-failing that-shift the jobs to low labor cost countries. Many western nations have achieved very high per capita GDP whilst having below average per capita energy use-mostly due to making more efficient use of energy & fuel-which is what we should be encouraging in the 3rd world. We should also be encouraging a greater use of renewable energy sources suitable to the region-like Geothermal power for Indonesia & Solar Power for Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as industrial co-generation & biomass-gas. My point is that wealth generation *can* be suitably achieved *without* a corresponding rise in CO2 emissions-as long as we help the developing world to avoid the pitfalls that we endured. Using their plight as an excuse to ignore global warming, though, is a total cop-out!
  3. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    doug_bostrom at 17:07 PM on 27 January, 2010 "A thermometer could be placed in a frying pan and yet as long as it has dynamic range available it'll still be able to register a trend in temperature and that trend will be separable from the frying pan component." I agree with this. However, is that the situation we have here with these poorly sited stations? I'm sure they all must have some dynamic range, but is that range consistant from one station to the next? Does it need to be? What if its not? Does that fact that the "bad" stations have an error range of >1 degreee C, >2 degree C, and >5 degree C play a role when measuring trends? Should these bad stations be lumped together when doing this analysis? Do you get different trend results when you separate out the different bad station catagories? Menne 2010 only tells us what it does, within the parameters it sets out. They do a lot of things that may or may not be the best way to answer these questions. Acting like rgis paper has settled the issue is putting the wagon before the horse. No one has even had a chance to respond yet. Heck, it took years for the hockey stick chart to get corrected. If you're open minded, should you be so quick to dismiss skeptical discussions of this paper? I don't see how.
  4. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    RSVP, you try telling that to the corporations & religious institutions who thrive of an ever growing population. As long as they dictate the course of government policy then you'll *never* get your wish. Even if we somehow level out our population below 8 billion, it's unlikely we'll be able survive at those numbers once all the oil & coal runs out-which is why its even more imperative that we start switching to low-carbon, renewable energy sources *before* our non-renewable energy sources run out. So, whether we look at it from a CO2 or resource depletion perspective, cutting our use of fossil fuels is a *good thing*!
  5. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    I keep saying that overpopulation is THE problem. If there is one thing humans could possibly control, it is population growth (at least more easily than forcing reduced per capita consumption). And if humans dont do this for themselves, Nature will...(as is becoming evident).
  6. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Marcus, Re #96. Oh I hear you. I'm an atmospheric scientist involved in R&D and land-atmosphere feedbacks-- I'm going to have to work until as long as they will keep me on. So much for a Phd in the sciences helping make me stinking rich. Yes, we scientists are rolling in money, and can't get enough so we have to fabricate lies and deception to put the fear of you know who in everyone so we can somehow get paid more money (sarc)? The mind boggles. It is a wonder anyone wants to be a climate scientist or work in a climate related field nowadays-- maybe that is their intention. The perks are not great-- death threats, libel and defamatory comments, harassment, nonstop attacks on your work from the peanut gallery, having your email and/or computers hacked, FOIAs up the yazoo, every denier or self-proclaimed "true skeptic or realist" claiming to have discovered the "truth"...on Google. What blows my mind is Watts et el. using pseudo science, deception and even lies to "refute" science conducted by NASA and NOAA and other reputable groups. Wonder if JPark has tracked down those long-term global temp. trends yet? Anyhow, so much rhetoric, so little substance from the contrarian camp. Seems to be the norm nowadays and, alas, Watts et al. and Fox news have the recipe down pat. I thought Lindzen claims that he has stopped that nasty habit (taking FF money) a while ago? Humanity Riules, re #95. Are you going for the record to see how many strawman arguments you can invoke in one post? I was woprried this would happen, you see Mennes et al's paper makes sense to those in the know, and most reasonable and well-adjusted people would accept their findings. Now Watts and his friend Pielke Snr. just cannot graciously accept defeat, "never capitulate men, never". So now he starts with more obfuscation and red herrings, all of which his (mostly ignorant) followers gobble up and then gleefully disseminate over the web without so much as a second thought or critique, thus spreading more misinformation and confusion. The internet is certainly a great tool for the denialists Humanity and you are helping their machine of misinformation. Congrats, Anthony will be proud. Humanity, the planet is warming b/c of it is in a positive energy imbalance and it has nothing to do with "fudged data" or the UHI or microclimate issues. Please explain to us why the RSS, RATPAC, GISS, CRU, NCDC all have very similar warming trends over the last 30 years...Also explain why, in the long term, the oceans are accumulating heat (no UHI going on there). Also, just why are those dratted ice sheets and glaciers in the middle of well, nowhere, losing ice at ever increasing rates? Now those are the important issues here, not the ramblings and rantings of Watts et al. on a BLOG. You honestly think that you know something that the scientists who have spent most of their careers working on this issue have miraculously missed or ignored? Err, NO. Watts does not understand the concept of an anomaly properly, yet you are determined to take his ramblings at face value while damning the work of the scientists? Uh huh. Oh well, I'm mostly OT here, so I'd better stop now before webmaster snips me (and I'm OK with that John).
  7. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    Marcus a) better education - you can do this the low carbon way (blackboards and chalk) or high carbon way (computers). i know which would be more important for my children and children in Bangladesh. b) building better infrastructure requires energy. This can come from backbreaking human labour (with a pickaxe) or the high carbon/high tech way with machinery. I know which I wouldn't get out of bed to do and which shouldn't be forced on the Bangladesh. c) energy through local resourses. The reverse side of this is exclusion from international hydrocarbon products. These still remain the cheapest form of energy, the reason they are first choice for the west. d) No real arguement there except you seem to be putting future embargoes on Nigerian oil and Indonesian coal while the USA, UK and Australia have undoubtedly seen great benefit from exploiting there own hydrocarbons in the past. I'm not a gungho capitalist and I'm well aware of the injustices and inequalities of the system but we shouldn't mix up the progressive aspects of modern development with the regressive power structures. Multinational capitalism exists in every country. It is not a reason to deny Bangladeshis, Brazillians or the Chinese access to cheap, abundant power and jobs.
  8. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    HumanityRules at 16:19 PM on 27 January, 2010 You still don't get it, do you? A thermometer could be placed in a frying pan and yet as long as it has dynamic range available it'll still be able to register a trend in temperature and that trend will be separable from the frying pan component. But I forgot: it's vital that you not understand this because Watts' hypothesis is a straw you've been grasping at for years. Watts' idea is dead. It was not even strictly necessary for Mennes to publish this paper, Watts' hypothesis can be falsified easily either by thought or experiment, without visiting a single sorry parking lot.
  9. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    HumanityRules, Berényi Péter, I see that you're fully signed on with Watts et al and their reckless campaign of degeneration and destruction. Lacking a powerful, robust argument against the fundamental physics at play here, a scorched earth maneuver is of course their only bet. They'll burn the academy to the ground if that's what is needed to pursue their course. Inadvertently smashing individual careers and decades of well earned public trust in the benefits of science is no deterrent. The rot they're spreading will not automatically confine itself to whatever fields of inquiry they must attack. Your thought leaders may well succeed in their twisted and perverse quest, but success does not correlate well with correctness or justice, as we've seen time and again. I hope you've been very careful in thinking about the choices you're making here. There's a long future ahead of you, time for lots of regrets.
  10. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Science is a wonderful thing if one does not have to earn one's living at it.<-i> -Albert Einstein
  11. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    You want to know what's really hilarious, Albatross? One of the primary sources of satellite temperature data is the University of Alabama, Huntsville-home of the well-known Skeptic Dr Roy Spencer. Now, if there was some collusion going on, you'd expect Spencer's data to be way out of step with GISS, RSS & other sources of temperature data (maybe showing a cooling trend over the last 30 years). Yet in fact there is virtually no discrepancy at all-so much for the conspiracy theories of the Denialist Cult. As for scientists trying to get rich. Yeah right, I've been working as a micro/molecular biologist for almost a decade, & will probably have to work until I'm in my 70's if I want to have a comfortable retirement. I doubt your average climatologist gets paid much more than me. So the idea that scientists are somehow "getting rich" off global warming fears is errant nonsense. Now skeptics like Lindzen, who charge the fossil fuel industry $2,500 a day for consulting services, are probably getting rich quick-but by fostering skepticism!
  12. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    On your updates. You say UHI is real, but don't say the same for microsite influences. And I guess the paper is refuting microsite influences. So placing thermostats over concrete has no affect? There is no need to rank stations because whatever you do to them seems to have no nett affect? The history of ranking stations by quality of station was all a waste of time? This one paper upsets what have been considered important practises for weather stations? On your second updates Watts has produced the following http://noconsensus.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/surface_temp1.pdf Obviously prepared before the Mennes 2010 paper and based on the surfacestation.org project so I guess we now have both sides of the argument. But much of this argument is about the quality of the data set as a whole rather than individual stations.
  13. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    The same is true about the destruction of the Amazon HR. Its being destroyed *not* for the enrichment of the Brazilian people, but for the enrichment of Multinational Companies which thrive on either cheap timber or cheap, short-term pasture for cattle. The ordinary people of Brazil, meanwhile, continue to mostly live in abject squalor.
  14. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    HumanityRules, do you think for one second that those Multinational companies who thrive on the low-wage, low-tax, cheap resource environment of the Third World are in any way interested in seeing these regions benefit from any kind of economic development? No, much better to keep them poor in order to maintain profits. One way to keep them poor is to keep them dependent on very expensive, outside sources for energy & fuel, thus maintaining high levels of debt & diverting wealth *away* from raising the standard of living. The best way to ensure a better standard of living for countries like Bangladesh is not through burning more fossil fuels, but through (a) providing better education & higher paid jobs, (b) building better, more efficient infrastructure, (c) helping poor nations to generate energy using locally available materials & (d) paying these countries a more reasonable price for access to their resources. Of course this won't happen because it interferes with the ability of certain groups to MAXIMIZE PROFITS. These are often the very same groups who go around telling us that Global Warming isn't real!
  15. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Unfortunatley having read this paper I am forced to come to the dissapointing solution that if this is the best we can do then we are in trouble. Our cause is crumbling people
  16. The chaos of confusing the concepts
    Jacob, thanks for taking the time to respond to questions. Plenty for me to think about. I have a chaos book out of the uni library: "Non-linear ordinary differential equations" (Jordan & Smith), but the library also has the Strogatz book so I might do a swap.
  17. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    doug_bostrom, The complete paper trail on the 40% rainforest claim is explained here http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/01/corruption-of-science.html As you say you can choose to trust it or not. Just as an aside. Why shouldn't the "savannization of the Amazon" occur. In developed countries we have cut down most of our forest to provide land for wealth generation. Why shouldn't the Brazilians be allowed to do the same. Having said that the Brazilians have already protected 40% of the rain forest as wilderness, for that they should be applauded.
  18. Berényi Péter at 11:36 AM on 27 January 2010
    Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    doug, you don't need Anthony Watts to verify the Amazon thing for you. You can do it yourself, just follow the links. Looks like the peer review process was redefined indeed by IPCC. It is a serious issue, simple hand waving does not make it go away. And there is more to it. The forty percent figure in AR4 13.4.1 is almost as bad as the 80% Himalayan glacier loss in 28 years. In fact less than 10% of the rain forest is in some danger there because of logging, not "global warming". And even there not all the trees are gone, just up to 40% of them. This is the figure that made its way into AR4 in a contorted way via an unrefereed paper made up by a journalist and a lobbyist. Once again, not just due process is lacking, but truth as well.
  19. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    John, Perhaps as well as the specific sections you also include an overview or Gaia type section to include papers like this: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2009/2009_Rockstrom_etal_2.pdf
  20. Why does CO2 lag temperature?
    re #43 DonMorton There are two main fallacies (and some minor, but still important, ones). (a) The first is to include a graph of temperature change resulting from enhanced [CO2] that starts at zero (i.e. zero [CO2]). The earth has never experienced [CO2] levels below around 190 ppm, and obviously for a phenomenon (earth temperature) that has an (approx) linear response to logarithmic changes in [CO2], this will massively over-exentuate effects at the irrelevant low [CO2] levels that the earth has never experienced. Graphing the full range of [CO2] from zero makes the earth response to changes at the high end (e.g. doubling [CO2] from 270 to 540 ppm, say), appear insignificant. (However we can calculate these, according to empirically-defined estimates of the climate response to [CO2] as in footnote [**] in post #45 just above). (b) The second is to pretend that the earth's temperature response to raised [CO2] is instantaneous. That's just silly (does the water in a pan instantaneously come to a new high temperature immediately you turn on the heat?). So the "fits" of curves to empirical temperature measures on that odd web page must be wrong. One can only fit the data with some knowledge of the earth response times for temperature changes resulting from enhanced forcings. These aren't easy to define, but it's likely that the slow response times due to the massive thermal inertia of the oceans means that 90% of the temperature response to enhanced [CO2] takes many decades at least. (c) Minor, but not less important, fallacies include the pretence that [CO2] is the only influence on earth surface temperature. It's very well established that man made aerosolic pollutants that reflect/scatter solar radiation back to space, are countering the warming effect of enhanced greenhouse gases. If one is trying to fit the earth temperature response to enhanced [CO2], one has to consider the other influences on earth temperature. (d) A generalized fallacy is the pretence that a relatively, but not that (!), complex system can be pared down to a level of over-simplicity such that all realistic relationship to the real world is lost...
  21. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    BTW, Berényi Péter's most recent post to this looks very impressive but it appears to essentially be lifted from Watts' site. Watts is engaging in hyperbole. Berényi Péter, you should perhaps not be so trusting. Even the comments thread at Watts' site pokes many holes in this latest unscandal.
  22. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    Vinny, I think this is an interesting exercise. If a comparable or better database already exists then please tell...
  23. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    Watts is busily burning the IPCC report at his site. I suspect this is a way of avoiding explaining to his followers why he dispatched them to waste time and passion ruining their own favorite theory, but he's got a number of reporters trained to realize they can do point 'n' click journalism from his site. Pretty nasty stuff, there. Watts and his bunch are extraordinarily eager and happy to sling mud. I hope the U.N does not allow itself to be stampeded by lazy reporters.
  24. Why does CO2 lag temperature?
    jdevlin, it comes down to the relative strength of the forcings and feedbacks. One also has to be careful with the use of the term "feedback", which in engineering terms can (but needn't!) convey a situation encompassing a self-reinforcing ramping of a system towards instability. In climate the feedbacks are perhaps more appropriately considered as "amplifications", and they tend to move the situation (earth average temperature) towards a new equilibrium state. So focussing specifically on the earth temperature -> CO2 -> temperature relationships. (a) empirical evidence supports a response of atmospheric CO2 levels to earth temperature changes, that is of the order of 13-15 ppm atmospheric [CO2] response per 1 oC of change in earth surface temperature. That can be determined from the well-characterized response of atmospheric [CO2] to earth temperature changes during glacial-interglacial cycles (see para 3 in post #42). (b) empirical evidence supports an earth surface temperature response to changes in atmospheric [CO2] equivalent to ~ 3 oC per doubling (or halving in a cooling direction) of [CO2]. This value includes all of the relatively short-term feedbacks associated with increased water vapour concentrations and earth albedo responses to melting ice [see *] below. In the long term (many hundreds or thousands of years), the earth's response to changes in [CO2] levels may be larger than this. (c) So we could consider the glacial to interglacial transition during the period 15000 to 10000 years ago. The earth temperature rose by around 5-6 oC globally, and the atmospheric [CO2] levels responded by rising from around 190 ppm (glacial) to 270 ppm (interglacial). One can calculate from a 3 oC earth surface temperature sensitivty to enhanced CO2, that the CO2 should give a "feedback" warming of ~1.5 oC [**]. (d) This is all mixed in together, since the slow release of [CO2] from the oceans during the ice age transition reinforced the warming during the entire slow transition. The ~1.5 oC from the [CO2] feedback, is mixed into the 5-6 oC of total temperature rise. (e) However if we were to seperate out (in time) the warming from the CO2 response, we might imagine the situation where we had a sudden earth temperature response of 3 oC (say) at the end of a glacial period. The atmospheric CO2 levels would rise slowly (as CO2 was "flushed" out of the oceans) and would rise from 190 ppm to around 235 ppm [15 ppm change per oC as in (a) above]. We can calculate (see [**]) that this will induce a further warming of around 1 oC, which would flush a further ~ 15 ppm of CO2 from the oceans (235-250 ppm) which would give rise to a further temperature rise of 0.3 oC, which would lead to a further 5 ppm [CO2] rise.......and so on. So you can see that this forcing/feedback response doesn't lead to a self-reinforcing "runaway" effect. It actually converges towards a new equilibrium state with both raised [CO2] and raised temperature... --------------------------------------------- [*] As the [CO2] rises the atmosphere warms, and the atmospheric water vapour concentration rises resulting in an amplification (positive feedback) of the warming. Likewise the combined [CO2]/water vapour warming of the atmosphere melts sea surface ice reducing the earth's albedo (reflectance of solar irradiance), and this additionally slightly amplifies the [CO2]/water vapour induced warming. Lumping all of these fast (water vapour)/fastish (fast ice albedo response) gives a combined climate sensitivity to raised atmospheric [CO2] of around 3 oC per doubling of atmospheric [CO2] [**]. These feedbacks can be analyzed in a similar manner as (e) above, and similarly converge to a new equilibrium temperature (rather than a "runaway" effect), such that the earth surface temperature is largely governed by the solar irradiance (largely constant), atmospheric [CO2], and ice sheet coverage, with additional influences from continental land mass arrangement and ocean/wind currents (and in the modern world, other greenhouse gases and aerosol pollutants). [**] delta T = (ln([CO2]final/[CO2]start))*3/ln(2) where delta T is the change in temperature at equilibrium in going from atmospheric [CO2]start to [CO2]final (e.g. from 190 ppm in an interglacial period to 270 ppm in an interglacial): delta T = (ln(270/190))*3/0.693 = 1.52 oC
  25. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Eureka! Thank you Albatross, your comment made me find the real reason why scientists are colluding so badly: it's not for money, it's not for power, it's just because they can do almost no work, they just confirm other's results. It's a shame, you lazy scientists ... N.B. Before being quoted out of context, IT'S JUST A JOKE! ;)
  26. The chaos of confusing the concepts
    Not much chaos in Crowley et al paper. Insted, it would be appropiate as a positive impact of global warming: "(Presumably, future society could prevent this transition indefinitely with very modest adjustments to the atmospheric CO2 level.)" ;)
  27. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Re Riccardo @89 "But, to reassure your "uninformed skepticism", other groups use different processing and the differences in the final results are minor." Correct. The results obtained by the NCDC, JMA, GISS and CRU are all in very good agreement despite treating the analysis and processing of the SAT data quite differently. Then again, they are all colluding don't you know-- as are those scientists overseeing the MSU data, radiosonde data, OHC data and sea ice data and....(please read with sarc). If only I had a dollar for every case of Dunning-Kruger and AGW I come across on the web...
  28. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Jpark, Sigh, any luck with those other global temp data yet? No? Thought so. The global SAT data are robust, deal with it. I, for one, am becoming quite tired of people using the "I am open minded" or that "I am here to learn" charade, all while simultaneously trying to obfuscate and derail the discussion. The content of your posts reveals your true intentions, and it is clearly not to understand the science. Riccardo @90 hit the nail on the head. The planet has been in a net energy imbalance since the fifties and consequently the atmosphere and oceans are warming, even at a time when solar forcing is decreasing and negative forcing from antrho aerosols is on the rise. The main culprits for the observed warming psot 1950 are GHGs. This is still very early days in this experiment, yet we can already see some disturbing signs (loss of Arctic ice, loss of ice on WAIS and greenland, and even the EAIS, worlwide retreat if glaciers, more flooding events, more heat waves in certain regions like Australia etc.). Also consider that we will easily surpass doubling of CO2 levels, in part, because of the actions of people like Pielke Jnr&Snr, D'Aleo, McIntyre, Watts and their cohorts-- their goal is to confuse and delay, sadly you and others are falling for their deception. The "arguments" of these self-proclaimed 'skeptics', when held to close scientific scrutiny are shown to be nothing more than beguiling. Finally, your "skeptisism" seems to be unidirectional-- which ivalidates claims of being a true "skeptic". So how about subjecting Watts et al. to your scrutiny?
  29. The IPCC's 2035 prediction about Himalayan glaciers
    Phillip64: Already handled by IPCC, which has apparently learned the danger of leaving smoldering piles of BS laying about unextinguished: "The January 24 Sunday Times ran a misleading and baseless story attacking the way the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC handled an important question concerning recent trends in economic losses from climate-related disasters. The article, entitled “UN Wrongly Linked Global Warming to Natural Disasters”, is by Jonathan Leake. The Sunday Times article gets the story wrong on two key points. The first is that it incorrectly assumes that a brief section on trends in economic losses from climate-related disasters is everything the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) has to say about changes in extremes and disasters. In fact, the Fourth Assessment Report reaches many important conclusions, at many locations in the report, about the role of climate change in extreme events. The assessment addresses both observations of past changes and projections of future changes in sectors ranging from heat waves and precipitation to wildfires. Each of these is a careful assessment of the available evidence, with a thorough consideration of the confidence with which each conclusion can be drawn. The second problem with the article in the Sunday Times is its baseless attack on the section of the report on trends in economic losses from disasters. This section of the IPCC report is a balanced treatment of a complicated and important issue. It clearly makes the point that one study detected an increase in economic losses, corrected for values at risk, but that other studies have not detected such a trend. The tone is balanced, and the section contains many important qualifiers. In writing, reviewing, and editing this section, IPCC procedures were carefully followed to produce the policy-relevant assessment that is the IPCC mandate." MORE: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/statement_25_01_2010.pdf
  30. Berényi Péter at 08:25 AM on 27 January 2010
    The chaos of confusing the concepts
    It's funny. We may be on the verge of a serious glaciation, deeper than any of the recent ice ages and much more permanent. I would not like that, not even in ten thousand years. The last time most of Europe was under ice, it was damn cold and dry where I live. Biodiversity has definitely improved since then. Also, I don't think carbon dioxide would be a remedy. The albedo discontinuity at the edge of the ice sheet they are talking about is very real. Ice is white in the visible and pitch dark in IR. It is the same for the snow which is all over the place right now, making the nights chilly. I have no choice but to generate carbon dioxide by destroying some methane, otherwise the family, including the kids would get frozen. "For the best-fit run, transition to the large Eurasian ice sheet occurs shortly after the present. Our results therefore suggest that the actual climate system may have been geologically close (10^4­-10^5 yr) to the final phase of a 50-Myr evolution from bipolar warm climates to permanent bipolar glaciation. (Presumably, future society could prevent this transition indefinitely with very modest adjustments to the atmospheric CO2 level.)" Vol 456 | 13 November 2008 | doi:10.1038/nature07365 LETTERS Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability Thomas J. Crowley & William T. Hyde http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/tcrowley/crowley_Nature08_iceages.pdf
    Response: I'm not sure I'd call between 10,000 to 100,000 years as being "on the verge of a serious glaciation". The forcing from orbitally forced albedo changes is quite small compared to the forcing from CO2 and operates over geological time scales as opposed to the dramatic response of climate to CO2 that happens over decades.
  31. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    jpark, it's typical that people understand only what they want to understand. I hope that your understanding of that blog post allows you to understand the its bias (Pielke only quoted himself) and some of the more evident mistakes he made. If not, i should go back to my first sentence and think that you would not understand any rebuttal of his post.
  32. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    sbarron2000, mathematically (and i'd say logically) the choice of the baseline is totally irrelevant. It's hard for me to understand your surprise that there is "a lot of geospatial averaging". Isn't a global "geospatial average" exactly what we are looking for? It is described in details because, you know, it's a scientific paper and it's customary to describe the data processing. But, to reassure your "uninformed skepticism", other groups use different processing and the differences in the final results are minor. Beyond this, Menne et al. are comparing two different datasets and the most important thing is that they use the same method for both.
  33. Why does CO2 lag temperature?
    I am impressed with the quality of the contributions to this topic but it is a struggle for a non-scientist like myself to fully grasp the complexity involved. Apologies therefore for my question from ignorance but it is this: if temperature leads CO2 AND CO2 leads temperature, what stops this being an endlessly self-reinforcing cycle?
  34. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    sbarron - I agree, looking at some of the temp charts the anomalies are so huge I cant believe they can be statistically significant. But I may be missing something. I hope I have an open mind too. But this is the skeptical skeptics site..
  35. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    I think I have found something of an answer - something I can understand at any rate.. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/07/03/roger-a-pielke-sr-comments-on-the-ncdc-talking-point-response-to-the-report-“is-the-us-surface-temperature-record-reliable”by-anthony-watts/
    Response:

    Note that the blog post you link to, dated from July last year, is not responding to Menne 2010 but a report posted on the NCDC website.

  36. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Menne 2010 says "The geographic distribution of stations that fall into the two categories is shown in Fig. 1 (note that just over 40% of the 1218 total USHCN Version 2 sites had available ratings)." A quick glance at surfacestations.org shows that they have ratings for 78% of the total 1221 USHCN stations. Why does Menne 2010 not use those other 38%? They are leaving almost half of the station data that has been collected unaccounted for in their study. And why 1218 vs 1221 total stations? Also, according to surfacestations.org, 61% of the stations have a temperature error of > or = to 2 degrees C, and 8% have a temp. error of > or = to 5 degrees C. Doesn't that put a pretty wide error band on the anomaly results, too? Can you draw meaningful conclusions from data when 69% of your stations have a minimun error of 2 degrees C? I guess if you just take averages for the anomalies, you could consider the error to be washed away for purposes of the results, but I'm not sure that's "scientifically" accurate. Is that why there are no error bands on anomaly results? I realize I'm asking a lot of questions, but I'm interested, and have an open mind. ;-)
  37. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    JC: 'I would be quite happy if you were to take the time to find more papers showing contrary results to papers currently listed. I appreciate the feedback you provided on forest growth and crop disease. It's not a competition to see who gets the biggest list but an effort to portray the state of the science.' I don't think that's possible with a tabulation like this. It's not a worthwhile exercise. I provided forest-growth and crop-disease info solely to make that point. The only way that listing single studies could work would be if you could somehow provide studies that were the most representative of the current state of the science in each area of impact - and surely no single individual knows enough about the enormous literature of anthropogenic climate change to be able to do that. Crowd-sourced offerings from commenters aren't the solution, either. How can you know that we know what we're talking about? (And how can your readers?) You have said that you'll use synthesis papers (overviews, reviews) when they become available instead of single studies. That's a better approach but you'd still need to be seriously well-informed about all aspects of the literature. Recent syntheses are available for several of the slots currently occupied by single studies in your tabulation but you haven't used them. Why is that? Possibly because the field is too large even when synthesized by experts. Ideally, you need to recruit a vast international organization packed full of experts in many different fields organized into various teams to evaluate the various claims made by the enormous literature and present an honest, informed picture of the whole thing. Oh. That's been tried. And it failed to be objective. Never mind. It's the best there is. Do you honestly think your blog can do better?
  38. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    I guess we are all waiting for a riposte..til then http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/01/15/professional-discourtesy-by-the-national-climate-data-center/
  39. There is no consensus
    In the section "Scientific Oranisations Endorsing the Consensus", there is a broken link. I believe the link http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/ (NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies) should be http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen/gwdebate/
    Response: Thanks for the link. However, upon reflection, I've removed that link - it's not so much an official statement by the GISS organisation as the opinion of James Hansen, a GISS employee. I'm not sure if NASA or GISS have published an official statement on climate change.
  40. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    I'm not a climate scientist, and I don't really care to recreate the work done by Menne. But what is the effect of all of the things he does to the temp. data before he creates his anomaly chart? From Menne 2010, at page 5... "Specifically, the unadjusted and adjusted monthly station values were converted to anomalies relative to the 1971–2000 station mean. The anomalies were then interpolated to the nodes of a 0.25° × 0.25° latitude– longitude grid using the method described by Willmott et al. [1985] -- separately for the good and poor exposure stations. Finally, the interpolated maximum and minimum temperature anomalies were grid-box area weighted into a mean anomaly for the CONUS for each year as shown in Fig. 2." What is the effect on the data when it is "interpolated to the nodes of a 0.25° × 0.25° latitude–longitude grid?" Further, the "interpolated maximum and minimum temperature anomalies were grid-box area weighted into a mean anomaly." What do these mean, and what happens to the data once you do it? I'm a layman, but I think this is a lot of geospatial averaging of the monthly anomalies and the mean anomaly which goes on prior to actually making our comparisons of temperature anomalies, right? Why was this done? What is the effect of doing it? Would the results be different if you didn't? Just skeptically thinking out loud here. ..
  41. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    Marcus at 22:02 PM on 24 January, 2010 Marcus, do you see that because the 1960's, 70's and 80's temperatures are included in the "average" temperature by which your anomaly are calculated, comparing those anomalies to the 1990's and 2000's temperature anomalies is mathematically a little misleading? The change in temperature for the 80s has already been taken into account in establishing the baseline, so it is artificially low when compared to the 90s and 00s. This is the kind of thing that makes me skeptical. Those facts as presented are misleading, whether it’s intentional or not. I won't argue that it’s not getting warmer. I think it is. But how much warmer and why are big question marks for me.
    Response: "I won't argue that it’s not getting warmer.  I think it is.  But how much warmer and why are big question marks for me."

    Note that the choice of the baseline period (eg - 1960 to 1990) has no bearing whatsoever on the temperature trend. As you say, the trend or "how much warmer" it's getting is what we're interested in when we look at temperature anomaly. And of course, you're correct that one of the most important questions is why it's getting warmer.
  42. Can you make a hockey stick without tree rings?
    Sorry. I keep finding these one at a time. The link for Smith 2006 gets a strange "cookie" error (my browser is set to accept cookies, but the site complains of an error). I believe a better link for Smith 2006 is http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/smith2006/smith2006.html
    Response: No need to apologies, many thanks for spotting all the broken links (the pitfall of linking to external websites). I've updated all three links here as well as on the hockey stick page.
  43. Can you make a hockey stick without tree rings?
    The Huang 2000 link is also broken (gets "Access forbidden" error. I believe the correct link is http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~peter/Resources/Seminar/readings/Huang_boreholeTemp_Nature%2700.pdf
  44. Can you make a hockey stick without tree rings?
    Mann 2008 link above is broken. I believe the correct link is http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/mann2008/mann2008.html
  45. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    JPark, re #71 (really, are you just here to randomly throw out red herrings?) The article by Richard Foot in the very, err, "reputable" (not) Vancouver Sun is consistent wityh other misinformation that they have published on AGW. This is the same Foot who was fawning over the "maligned" McIntyre a while ago. Foot also makes extensive reference to D'Aleo et al. Also, Foot does not even know how to cite James Hansen (not Hanson as Foot claims)! Wonder which denialists website he got his ideas from? Also, the Canadian Arctic is warming rapidly (as per Environment Cnada data; 1.7 C per 62 years [years with data to date] for Arctic Tundra and 1.3 C for the Arctic Mountains and Fiords), so by excluding those Arctic data GISS are actually underestimating the warming, not overestimating it. There are many reaosns for excluding certain data, reasons that Richard Foot, you and D'Aleo et al. seems to not be able to grasp. Jpark, let us for a second assume that the instrument-based SAT record is rubbish (it is not, as has been demonstrated over and over again, but whatever). Now, go and look in the long-term trends in oceanic heat content (no UHI there), trends in global radiosonde network (RATPAC) and trends in global satellite MSU data (RSS, UAH take your pick)-- no UHI or microclimate problems there either. Now look at the long-term trends (30-yrs) and compare them with those of the instrumented global SATs. Then please get back to us with the trend data from all four datasets (RSS, UAH, GISS, RATPAC).
  46. Scientists can't even predict weather
    The link above to Hansen 2007 is broken. I believe the correct link is http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_1.pdf
    Response: Thanks, that's the problem with linking to external websites - they change. I've updated the link and many thanks for pointing this out.
  47. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    to tadzio: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot
  48. Berényi Péter at 03:05 AM on 27 January 2010
    Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability Chapter 13: Latin America 13.4 Summary of expected key future impacts and vulnerabilities 13.4.1 Natural ecosystems http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch13s13-4.html#13-4-1 "Up to 40% of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and climate system in South America could change very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual changes between the current and the future situation (Rowell and Moore, 2000). It is more probable that forests will be replaced by ecosystems that have more resistance to multiple stresses caused by temperature increase, droughts and fires, such as tropical savannas" You can follow IPCC peer review process on this paragraph at http://ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/AR4/ar4review_access.html Both First & Second Order Draft Comments worth reading. Unfortunately it's impossible to cite or quote them. However, I can tell you that there is nothing in the reviews concerning 13.4.1 except some anonymous insistance in Second Order Draft (expert) Comments to increase the perceived probability of savannization of the Amazon with no reference whatsoever. Still, there is a reference in the text itself to Rowell and Moore, 2000. WWF/IUCN Global Review of Forest Fires Prepared by Andy Rowell & Dr. Peter F. Moore http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2000-047.pdf It is not a peer reviewed paper, but a pamphlet sponsored by NGO pressure groups. Still, Rowell and Moore may be respected scientists. Are they? It depends. Andy Rowell is an award-winning freelance writer and investigative journalist specialising in environmental and health issues. http://www.tcij.org/about-2/teachers-and-speakers/andy-rowell Dr. Moore is a Policy Analyst & Forest Fire Management Specialist with high-level policy and analytical skills and a strong understanding of government administration. http://www.ifmeg.com/CV/Dr%20Peter%20Moore.pdf Enuff said. Still, the core claim, savannization of parts of the Amazon basin can be real. Not due to global warming perhaps, but landuse change. Triggered by increased demand to alcohol for fuel as a renewable energy source. One sets the forest on fire, plants sugarcane, manufactures fuel, sells it and takes the money. It's as simple as that. If the net result, after leaving the land alone once again were savannah or forest regrowth, we do not know, at least not based on IPCC AR4. There might be refereed scientific literature on the subject, but it was not utilised in this case.
  49. Peer reviewed impacts of global warming
    Data from Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) Station ALOHA. Seems biological, biochemical and biophysical data has been collected from 1980's to present. One paper identifies acidification of the ocean http://www.pnas.org/content/106/30/12235.full.pdf Several others have identified increase in primary production and biomass of plankton http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/61/4/457 http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006JC003730.shtml The biomass increases are seen at depth which has seen greatest increase in pH (small point is Turley paper in ocean acidification peer-reviewed? It appears to be a DEFRA (UK government) publication)
  50. On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record
    November 2008
    Some folks have commented that becuase I’ve posted my “How not to measure temperature…” series, that I’m only focused on finding the badly sited stations. While they are a dime a dozen and often visually entertaining, actually what we want to find are the BEST stations. Those are the CRN1 and 2 rated stations. Having a large and well distributed sample size of the best stations will help definitively answer the question about how much bias may exist as a result of the contribution of badly sited stations. Since the majorty of sttaions surveyed so far seem to be CRN 3,4,5 with CRN1,2 making up only 12% of the total surveyed stations thus far, it is important to increase the sample size.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/24/a-note-to-wuwt-readers/

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