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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 125901 to 125950:

  1. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    RSVP, a lot of doubts infact, it's the breading stage of science. But this does not mean any doubt, any weird unverified idea. The difference is huge. The problem with reputation you mention is exactly what i was referring to in my last comment when i said "destroy science altogether". If you put it as a matter of collective reputation of scientist (peer reviewers are scientists) you are destroying science just because you don't like (who knows why) the conclusions of part of it.
  2. Understanding Trenberth's travesty
    When I dry my hands with a heated blow dryer, the surface of my hands feel really cold until all the moisture evaporates. Have upper atmosphere temps changed?
  3. Understanding Trenberth's travesty
    Sequestered heat is to Climatology as dark matter is to Astrophysics. In Accounting, they just fire you.
  4. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Robert Ellison, look at the UAH dataset in the same Dr Spencer page. Scroll down to the end and read the global trend: 0.13 °C/decade. RSS gives 0.153 °C/decade. Compatible numbers are found for the three surface temperature datasets, which is worth recalling do not measure the same thing as the satellites. All of them are compatible with what is expected from a steady global warming.
  5. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    RSVP, you are far away from what i think and you clearly don't know how the peer review process works. May you find an unknown blogger trustworthy while you don't trust a peer review papaer. Bizarre, i'd say. Laymen discovered peer review just in the last few years and just as climate science is concerned. Given the pathos this topic generates now everyone feels the right to pontificate on almost anythings scientists have been done for decades, if not centuries. Look at what you've just said; you are questioning gas absorption, one thing know for a couple of centuries (litterally) and confirmed up to today. Do you really think there's no one around able to do some easy experiment and calculation of absorption? Trying to counteract "the inconvenient truth" i see more and more people destroy, maybe unconsciously, science altogether; and this blindness (or nihilism) is frightening.
  6. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    batsvensson, you probably didn't follow the discussion. Much too easy to jump in between and say it's a strawman ...
  7. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    @Riccardo, I quoted "personal attack to scientists". You responded: "scientists" is plural. It's a whole scientific community that is under attack from outside." Your argument is a strawman.
  8. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    To John Cook Way back, someone pointed me to an experiment that shows how CO2 interacts with IR to raise its temperature, thus proving greenhouse gas theory. The experiment was a lab geared to grade school or high school students and consisted of temperature comparisons of gas in a box with and without CO2. Proportion, concentration, and geometry didnt seem to matter for this. But considering the surface of the Earth is roughly 510,000,000 km2. Taking the square root you get 22,583 km. The height of the atmosphere is roughly 10 km. Converting to meters, we get 22,583,000 and 10,000 meters respectively. If we want to model this on a 100 m2 surface, 10 m on a side, the height of our model atmosphere would be around 4 mm. If it were possible to get 4 mm of air hovering over this surface, and inject 0.0003 percent of its volume with CO2, this would be a fair comparison for study. Riccardo Is it peer review or peer pressure? The sense I get is that you are only considered a peer if you agree.
  9. Robert Ellison1178 at 23:16 PM on 12 December 2009
    What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    #'s 63, 64, 65 'Using NOAA satellite readings of temperatures in the lower atmosphere, scientists at The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) produced a dataset that shows global atmospheric warming at the rate of about 0.07 degrees C (about 0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade since November 1978. "That works out to a global warming trend of about 0.7 degrees centigrade over (the next) 100 years," said Dr. John Christy, who compiled the comparison data. "That's a definite warming trend, which is probably due in part to human influences. But it's substantially less than the warming forecast by most climate models, and it isn't entirely out of the range of climate change we might expect from natural causes. http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=11540 http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ The peak of global temperature in the 1998 El Nino is part of the 1998/2001 climate shift and evident in any of the (monthly) temperature records. This is the simplest part of the science. The more interesting arguments concerned major uncertainties in the solar records, cloud properites and dynamics and as a result of complex systems theory.
  10. The hockey stick divergence problem
    LorenzoG, ice cores temperature reconstructions are based on isotopic ratios; sea and lake sediment reconstructions use some biological proxy; neither is precipitation dependent. Trees, ice sheets and sea typically happen to be in different locations; you may find some lake sediments and tree rings from the same location. The solution of what is mathematical more than observational? It's not clear to me what you're asking.
  11. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    DeNihilist, it's true that people "are smart enough to get the basics of the science, most of us just don't have time to educate ourselves." and that "So attention grabbers are the default argument.". Problems arise when, like for the post of J. Storrs Hall you link, one needs a little bit more than get the basics to not be fooled by those attention grabbers. And indeed it's a much larger problem, there no filter on what can be published on the internet. Anyone interested in climate science is continuosly forced to spend his time in debunking more or less absurd claims people find somewhere in pseudo-scientific sites. It's much like the too many "inventions" of perpetual motion machines; apart from some curiosity, i'd not spend time looking at them seriously. How many times one should repeate that no conclusions can be draw from a temperaure reconstruction in any single site which is not shown to be for some reason representative of the global pattern? And what about the too short time series so frequently analyzed? One of the great things of this site is the collection of these kind of arguments, indeed ;) Scientists have managed to find a solution to which i think we all should adhere, it's well known and called peer review process. It should represent the threshold for throwing the other claims away without wasting time debunking them over and over. Questions are always welcome and if someone can answer i'm sure he will; but jumping on a blog with a claim found in some obscure sites is not asking questions nor it's discussing science.
  12. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    To John Cook You say above... "The total contribution of waste heat to our climate has been calculated and compared to the heating contributed from greenhouse gases in Warming from fossil fuels (Caldeira 2009). The radiative forcing from CO2 is around 10,000 times greater than the forcing from waste heat." From the Caldeira paper.. "Therefore, in year 2000, the Earth was heated >75 times more by anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere than by direct heating from fossil-fuel combustion." The huge factor you are referring to has to do with the theoretical cumulative heat from the total lifetime of CO2. When you are talking about Joules per year, even the article you make reference to only attributes a factor of 75 times. Now 75 is still significant, but what is this energy doing? This radiative energy only involves 1) the Sun, 2) the Earth's surface, and 3) outer space. Do you think electrical power lines are hot to touch? They are not. (You dont want to try this). Power lines are conduits of power between a source and a load. In the same way, the atmosphere does not absorb radiative energy however much it is increased. Heat transfers to air through convection as described by the equation, q = hA(Ta − Tb). When the air and solid reach the same temperature heat transfer stops. Ocean water temperatures are normally always cooler than sea level air temperatures (except near the Earth's poles), however, car radiators, motors, refrigeration systems, etc., are generally warmer than the surrounding air. These are warming the air, day and night.
  13. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Phillipe, The reason that sceptics pick 98 is the same reason that Mr. Gore uses Mann's first hockey stick - for effect. Since 98, the temp rise has slowed quite a bit. Has it cooled? Of course not. That is why this decade may be the hottest that we know of, it is coming from a hugh peak. But the battle for minds continues on both sides of the debate. As I posted earlier, the majority of the people, in my opinion, are smart enough to get the basics of the science, most of us just don't have time to educate ourselves. So attention grabbers are the default argument. Simple. What intrigues me is that the pro side has not yet seen the real truth about the release of these "climategate" files and e-mails. The anti side is finally getting to debate the science, and it is very public, so more of the harried masses can now see what the pro side has contended to be the facts. Do you not see what a great oppurtunnity this can be? More people are Binging/Googling this subject (then even Tiger woods indescretions!). More people are looking for the truth. Finally, the pro side can climb out from obscurity and declare their side with logical and science backed facts! This website is a prime example. As more of my friends ask me about this, I always refer them here as the best place to get the pro side of the debate. Tell your leading lights to get off their talking points and celebrate the freedom that this leak has given them to finally explain the science to those who matter the most - Joe and Jane six pack! People don't want to be scared into doing the "right" thing, they want to walk with reason into doing the right thing. This leak is the best thing that has ever happened for CC! Dont miss the boat! Since I am not very good at pasting stuff, here is an attempt at getting some graphs from Greenland. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-icecore-2475.html That is the info The graphs appear on WUWT in an article by J. Storrs Hall - here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/hockey-stick-observed-in-noaa-ice-core-data/ more interesting material to help push us to a better understanding.
  14. Philippe Chantreau at 12:28 PM on 12 December 2009
    What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    The "lack of warming" since 1998 exists only under the condition that 1998 is cherry-picked as a starting year and the effect of the massive 98 El-Nino not taken into consideration. How is it if we take 1997 or 1999 as a starting point? Why so much focus on 1998? The answer is simple: the extraordinary warmth of that year makes it easy to suggest that it was "cooler" afterward, although the following decade was, in fact, warmer than the one containing 1998. Every time someone tries to take 1998 as a starting point for anything, I know they're trying to take mo for a ride. This has been discussed already. Swanson and Tsonis conclude: "Finally, it is vital to note that there is no comfort to be gained by having a climate with a significant degree of internal variability,even if it results in a near-term cessation of global warming. It is straightforward to argue that a climate with significant internal variability is a climate that is very sensitive to applied anthropogenic radiative anomalies(c.f. Roe [2009]).If the role of internal variability in the climate system is as large as this analysis would seem to suggest, warming over the 21st century may well be larger than that predicted by the current generation of models, given the propensity of those models to underestimate climate internal variability [Kravtsov and Spannagle 2008]." A quick look at how temps have recently behaved can be see here, it is very much as expected in a noisy system, and not different from what has been seen before: http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/giss1.jpg Skeptics like to use natural variability only one way, but it does cut both.
  15. The hockey stick divergence problem
    I would like to see an analysis of proxy results based on location. Tree rings, ice cores and sediment data all have a precipitation component. Are all low latitude proxies experiencing different precipitation conditions than high latitude proxies? Or % of cloud cover? Information is missing, and most of the solutions seem to be mathematical rather than observational.
  16. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    NewYorkJ, there have been times when the AGW theory was on the making and the challenges put on it were fruitful. A lot of things have been fixed and/or improved thanks to the true scientific scepticism; and there is still ample room for discussions, as is the case in scientific conferences and peer reviewed papers. But I know, you're not talking about science and scientists ;)
  17. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Regarding the Darwin station spin (Re: response to #50), this is a nice debunking: http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/12/trust_scientists Skeptical arguments somehow seem to be growing more irrational and shrill. I didn't think that was possible.
  18. Models are unreliable
    blouis79, you might want to read something on weather vs climate. But if you like straight lines, fit one to the last 30 years or so and you'll end up with about 2 °C by 2100. Not confortable anyway. But you don't need to use "fancy computer models" to do better than a straight line fit and get a better representation of reality. By the way, you can also do nice fits to the ice ages cycles without "fancy computer models", but guess what?, they do a better job.
  19. Models are unreliable
    The science of prediction is well studied and not very reliable. A straight line fit with available historical data is statistically just as good as a fancy computer model. A stock market model works fine over 100 years as a straight line with unpredictable ups and downs. That's as good as a climate model will ever be over a few hundred million years - a straight line with ups and downs. The argument about weather vs climate is germane - they say we can't predict weather but it's OK we can predict climate and then try to predict the jiggles which is as good as predicting weather. So has anyone seen a model run try to account for the paleoclimatology data?
  20. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    From An AP news item about the stolen emails.. "One referred to using a "trick" that could be used to "hide the decline" in temperatures". Ya'll are doing a great job, keep it up.
  21. The growing divide between climate scientists and public opinion
    I work with a serious global warming denier (GWD). Due to his prompting I began to do a lot of reading about the subject of global warming. Like the posts by thingadonta, there is no serious refutation of the science. The science is well done and convincing. Thingadonta's attack is rhetorical and in this case, an ad hominem attack. If one cannot refute the science, then one can refute the scientists. Current neo-con thought seems to like the socialist bogey-man, so let's drag that out against the climatologists. Even Mizimi's criticism of the survey misses the point about the science, simply seeking to further the ad hominem attack. These "contrary" posts constitute a FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) attack by the GWDs to try to keep the "Global Warming Debate" myth alive. These GWDs are not contributors to the scientific process nor should one pretend that they are such. So, welcome to the age of the internet. Any person with an opinion is free to post it. Expect to see a lot more rhetorical, religious, and political attacks on science and scientists. The fact that science is fluid and subject to change based on evidence will make it even more critical that important information is communicated well and in a way that lay people can understand.
  22. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Just one of my opinions is that, as humans we evolved naturally on earth. Everything we invented or developed came from the earth. We just manipulate what was already here. Therefore anything we do is just part of nature and is a natural progress. Be it good or bad. We are nature. We are not apart from it. We’re just animals that think too much. If we make a mess of things, Nature will let us know.. one way or another.
  23. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    HumanityRules, I agree with everything you say about Mel P and on her past record alone there are grounds for dismissing her ill-informed rants. The fact that she now assumes 'fraud' on the basis of a few decontextualised e-mail extracts is despicable, perhaps slanderous. I was really referring to the darwin data which appears to have come from leftfield and in that context I would appreciate John's technical input. Unfortunately there are now many who doubt AGW on the basis of propaganda from the 'deranged' few. Tempting though it may be we are unlikely to persuade them of the science by ad hominem attacks. Curiously I'm unable to post on her blog. If anybody here has a mind to, they're welcome to address the article in question.
  24. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Cognitive dissonance is the uncomfortable feeling you get when confronted with two contradictory ideas. For example, while nearly every calorie associated with human activities ends up as waste heat directly warming our atmosphere, climate scientists continue to focus on an atmospheric greenhouse effect that they are still trying to prove exists. Who are the real deniers? The reason you can "see" IR surface images using infrared optics is because air itself does not radiate IR. Once air has been warmed up by your automobile, home furnace, and local power plant, that waste heat can only be given up when it comes in contact with condensed vapor in the air or objects on the earth's surface (including polar ice and glaciers). The deniers of this notion tell us that the amount of human waste heat is insignificant next to quantities associated with the Earth's solar radiation budget, yet these are the same people who are also talking about the ponderous thermal effects of increased CO2 as measured in part per million! To see what happens with all that solar energy, all you have to do is compare the temperature of a rock at midday and then at 5 am. Waste heat on the other hand heats air first, then the Earth's surface where it later has a chance to escape into space through radiation. There are something like 500 million automobiles in circulation worldwide. It is a well known fact that climate in urban areas are affected by waste heat. If this heat it is continually generated, it must be gradually spreading out throughout the planet.
    Response: The atmospheric greenhouse effect has been empirically confirmed by multiple, independent lines of evidence - both by satellites finding less infrared radiation escaping to space at the wavelengthe that CO2 absorb energy and by surface measurements finding more infrared radiation returning to the surface at those same wavelengths. Why do climate scientists focus on CO2? Because it is both the most dominant radiative forcing and is also the fastest rising.

    The total contribution of waste heat to our climate has been calculated and compared to the heating contributed from greenhouse gases in Warming from fossil fuels (Caldeira 2009). The radiative forcing from CO2 is around 10,000 times greater than the forcing from waste heat.
  25. There's no empirical evidence
    More to the point, are there other, more prevalent sources of CO2 outside of industrial or non-natural based carbon emissions and further, are there other elements at play in increasing the global heat capacitance currently perceived?
  26. There's no empirical evidence
    I think the Skeptical Argument is improperly presented. It should rather be presented "There is no empirical evidence or proof that humans are [the primary causes of current global warming trends]. It's all based on theory and computer models.
    Response: Ideally, rather than use my own wording, I like to quote an excerpt from a skeptic article - usually one that sums up the argument succinctly and eloquently (lest I be accused of setting up a strawman argument). I'll get around to it for this argument sooner or later.
  27. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Al, Indeed lets see.
  28. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Humanity, The AR4 report does in fact quantify the forcing from aerosols (see Fig. 2.13 pg. 169 Chpt. 2). The top 3 are forving base don observations. The latest AOGCMS which will be used in AR5 include atmospheric chemistry, although I am not sure to what extent the chemistry module interacts with the cloud microphysics module/s, if at all. As John notes, there is no discernable signal of CGRs in the global temperature data, if they did have a significant impact on cloud coverage/opacity, then it would ahve in turn had an impact on the global temps. Anyhow, let us see what the CERN data show.
  29. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Jim Ryan, there are so many misleading/wrong claims in that article that a point by point critique would be quite boring. Just take two of them. The temperature has been flat in the last decade. You might want to this post that shows how the earth is still accumulating heat. Surface temperatures vary a lot and a decade of apparent flat trend is easy to find. But this does not mean that global warming has stopped. Tamino has a a nice post on the varibility of surface temperatures you might also want to read. The "Darwin scandal" is just a lye (no euphemism here, just a flat lye); Eschenbach is indeed known for playing this dirty game of manipulating data (anyone still remember how he shifted the data to show that Hansen was wrong?). What happened at Darwing is that the station has been moved and then it was necessary to apply a correction. Eschenbach is simply hiding this.
  30. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Albatross it's too weak to describe those people that think there is merit in this idea as contrarians or cynics. There is a real mis-reading of the intentions of scientists on both sides of this arguement. While I accept that there are some (on both sides) that have an agenda it's true that most scientists are just generating data that hopefully adds to the body of knowledge. It seems that anybody who generates too much controvesy with their work is quickly labelled any number of denigrating terms. Given Jasper Kirkbys obvious high status in the field he could probably be working on just about any topic he wishes. He chooses to do this, I guess, because he thinks it has legs. Do you think this man is convinced by the arguement? I do. I also think the 15-20 groups involved in this project from a dozen highly regarded institions think this is important. Many of the authors from the 138 references in the PDF also probably think this is important. In terms of overstating the importance. The IPCC state the uncertanity is too great to assign a forcing value to CGR. There are other forcing (such as aerosol and cloud) which have similar high levels of uncertainty but which are aknowledged. How can you overstate or even understate something which the IPCC suggests is very poorly understood. If we followed your logic we'd remain in the dark.
    Response: The role of cosmic rays in climate is an important question - there is still some question about the degree of influence being debated in the peer reviewed literature. However, as far as the global warming debate goes, cosmic rays have had little to no role in the warming over the last few decades. This is because measured cosmic rays have shown little to no trend since the 1950s - an unsurprising result as cosmic rays are modulated by solar activity which has also shown little to no trend since the 1950s.
  31. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    I'd be happy to critique Melanie Philips for you.......she's an all round appalling person with rabid views on just about everything. Only the most deranged would consider her a darling of anything. If there's one bad thing about the anti-AGW it's that its dominated by the worst right-wingers in the mainstream debate.
  32. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Humanity, I said "I do not dismiss the hypothesis that cosmic rays have no role whatsover." So I am open to new ideas. Am I convinced, are the climate scientists and cloud microphysics scientists convinced? No. The CERN project might shed some light on all of this, but again, the importance is very likely being overstated by the contrarians/cynics. They seem to forget that there are an abundance of giant CCNs, especially over the oceans which can readily act as CCN for cloud droplets, and most of the globe's low-level cloud (Sc, St) is found over the oceans. There is hardly a limitation of CCN over the oceans. I am not doubtful of this hypothesis b/c it is not consistent with AGW, but b/c of the tenuous science concerning the exact mechanisms involved. I cannot emphasize this enough, even if there is a link, be careful about ovserstating its importance. I'll have a look at the PDF when I have time, by the same token you should read some of Dan Rosenfeld's work, and the excellent discussion at RC. Anyhow, I don't want this thread to morph into a debate on CGRs.
  33. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Hi John, Melanie Philips is a journalist in the UK and one who frequently appears on BBC TV and radio spouting a rabid anti-AGW scepticism and is consequently one of the darlings of the 'denialist' community. At the moment she is in full flow regarding the CRU e-mail hack. Needless to say she hasn't a scientific background and is convinced that AGW is a 'scam'. Although I am familiar with general scientific precepts, her latest blog, although I'm fairly sure it is a gross misrepresentation, contains some rather specialist knowledge and I would appreciate if you would critique it from a technical perspective. Fantastic site and keep up your invaluable work! http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/5620571/the-smoking-iceberg.thtml
    Response: Reading through Melanie Philips' latest blog post The smoking iceberg, you'll see she is reiterating many of the most popular skeptic talking points. For example: The focus on the Darwin weather station is new though, will have a look at that in more detail if time permits.
  34. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    #46 Albatross I take your points and there is some truth in your silver bullet idea but not quite for the reason you state. I see that Svensmarks data has been critised to death but as I said the science doesn't rest on the limitations of one piece of data. This should be a familiar arguement to you it's one used by pro-AGW people all the time. If you take a look at the PDF I linked to you'll see a well rounded arguement supported by many different data sources. On Svenmark I think his theory has been refined to say that CGR affect low level clouds. I see the graph on John's page about CGR but this looks very different to the one presented in the PDF on page 5. It's too crude to say one is lying so you'd have to conclude that the data are generated in very different ways. I'm not skilled enough to say which is right. It should just be pointed out that the CLOUD project is supported by groups in a dozen or so US and European institutions. The lead author is Jasper Kirkby who according to his Wiki page is a leader in particle physics, designing new accelerators. This is not mickey mouse science by petrochemical stooges. I accept there are many scientist that produce work that downplays the role of CGR influence it just seems you are unwilling to accept there are many who also think it's worth investigating because there is evidence to support it. I really suggest you read at least the first half of that PDF, it's balanced in showing the limitations of the science as well.
  35. There's no empirical evidence
    thereisaidit, we already have the technology and it's improving rapidly; the only big question is time (or probably I should say the will to act). We will never see the arctic, or any other impact we already caused, recover. It's even worst, indeed; even if we act promptly we will see more degradation of our environment. We are not even thinking of turning back to the pre-industrial climate, we're only trying to avoid what is considered too dangerous to afford.
  36. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    batsvensson, "scientists" is plural. It's a whole scientific community that is under attack from outside.
  37. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    "what Weart is talking about is personal attack to scientists. This is unprecedented." I do not agree. May I mention Newton?
  38. The hockey stick divergence problem
    I would like to see an analysis of proxy results based on location. Tree rings, ice cores and sediment data all have a precipitation component. Are all low latitude proxies experiencing different precipitation conditions than high latitude proxies? Or % of cloud cover? Information is missing, and most of the solutions seem to be mathematical rather than observational.
  39. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Humanity #37. Did you read my part about the role of aerosols in cloud formation, opacity and precip. efficiency? These are known facts and have been studied extensively. See for example work by Daniel Rosenfeld. I do not dismiss the hypothesis that cosmic rays have no role whatsover. Is the evidence convincing? No. Is the science that has been done good? Not always. Don't take my word for it, read the in depth discussion and debate that was held at RC recently. John Cook deals with the cosmic ray hypothesis on this very site. I get the impression that you are looking for a silver bullet Humanity. Thank goodness, this mess is all because of comsic rays, well now we can go on with business as usual. Well, not so fast, even if the comsic ray hypothesis is true. How significant is it in terms of absolute radiative forcing? Can they even demonstrate that? In the greater scheme of things it is probalby (if at all) a very small player. Recently someone at the U of T in Canada found a link between stratospheric ozone destruction and cosmic rays. Next thing, denier blogs are claiming that CFCs causing the ozone hole is a hoax. Well, no. He said that CFCs and NOx were still the primary catalists, but that cosmic rays appeared to be modulating the amount of ozone loss. And that is what may be going on with cosmic rays and clouds-- the hypothesis and its impacts (if any) are being overstated. CGRs may be a very small player, but they are by no means the primary driver. Also, do not forget about the problems associated with ocean "acidification". Doubling or tripling CO2 would play even more strain on an already taxed and vunerable ocean ecosystem which is a major food source for huge numbers of people. So there are other very real and understood reasons for reducing our CO2 emissions.
  40. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Humanity "Finally while I agree that we should give weight to experts in the field who have studied these thing throughout their career we shouldn't exclude the layman and his contribution to this debate." Agreed, I do not cater to the ivory tower, but I would be very wary of taking at face value that this person's interpretation of the data is correct. Humanity, you should also know that Willis has been shown to fudge data before (look it up), so he is hardly credible. The man has an agenda and is clearly biased. He did not even succeed in properly replicating the methodology set out in the litertature. It is irresponsible for them to make the allegations based on a sample size of one, and for them to then make sweeping generalizations/allegations and then post these allegations on the net for everyone with an untrained eye to misinterpret at will. And that is their audience for the most part, not scientists.
  41. There's no empirical evidence
    oops, in the last commet the first mention of "non-CO2 releasing energy" should have been "CO2-releasing energy"
  42. There's no empirical evidence
    This web site and it's articles is the best (most thorough most civil, most compact, most interesting) I have ever come across. If we agree that human-caused CO2 has has caused the increase in global temps, the more difficult problem is what to do about it. Does anyone really think the answer is electric cars? More bumper stickers? Without hyper-analysing energy issues, it seems that the underlying belief is that we need to substitute non-Co2 releasing energy with non-CO2 producing energy. Is this even POSSIBLE on a global scale? And if so? Will the surge of population over the next hundred years erase those efforts? And, is there enough time? Even if our solutions were implemented on a a world-wide scale over the next 20 years, how long would it take for the volume of arctic ice to re-establish itself and confirm our "fix" has succeeded?
  43. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Two good rebuttals of the CRU "scandal": http://www.pewclimate.org/science/university-east-anglia-cru-hacked-emails-analysis http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/global_warming_contrarians/debunking-misinformation-stolen-emails-climategate.html BTW, I am working on an essay targeted toward conservatives that think we should continue to "do business as usual". I will be shopping it around at the various blogs I frequent in order to get feedback to make it better. The goal will be to get an essay that we can all use to convince those that ignore the science because they do not like solution. Stay tuned.
  44. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    As another line of evidence for global warming you could list that plant species in mountain ranges now tend to grow at higher elevations than in the past. See for example: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/320/5884/1768 A side effect of this is that species that are restricted to the highest altitudinal zones may be driven to extinction, both from increased competition and because they have nowhere else to go.
    Response: Thanks, I've added it above and more importantly, added it to "It's Not Happening".
  45. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    @albatross, 32 "Still not convinced about the warming? Then look at the oceanic heat content data at: www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ If these data do not convince you that something is amiss, nothing will." I like to point to the sea level measurements, showing a trend of >3mm/year since the early 90ies. I think ALL temperature data series will have to be carefully checked by 'outsiders'. That's the only sensible thing to do in the present situation.
  46. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    @thingadonta, 36 >"we've never before seen a set of people accuse an entire community of scientists of deliberate deception and other professional malfeasance". "Absolute Baloney. Ever heard of the church in the middle ages?, the resistance to evolution?, or Socrates and the Academy, or the Spanish Inquisition?. His use of the word 'never' here is a gross exaggeration/distortion, what would such do with the data then, if they can't even get basic history right. Would they use this word 'never' in a historical paper, or are they just plain stupid? " OK, the Spanish Inquisition is the correct historical parallel. I think the implied context here was the public, (allegedly) fact and science based debate of the latter centuries. I understand very well that this distinction is somewhat alien to you.
  47. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    thingadonta, i think you should distinguish between science and scientists. While it's true that we've already seen harsh controversies in the past, what Weart is talking about is personal attack to scientists. This is unprecedented.
  48. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    NewYork, your argument is well formulated in comment #33, but I wonder; do you also mind to take into account the fact that scientist also oppose the hypothesis of dangerous man made global warming, and on what ground would they then do this? Else your argument may leave the conclusion open to that scientist that opposes this idea are evil or lies or are stupid or is a combination thereof.
  49. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Albatross #32 on the Darwin data. I don't think Eschenbach says there hasn't been a global warming trend. In fact he says several times that the globe is warming what he speciifcally does is question the adjustment process. I also don't think he's attempting to generate a centuary trend either locally or globally. He acknowledges this is one data set, in fact he critises the sparsity of long term data sets in the region used in the adjustment process. This seems a perfectly reasonible process to do and it's perfectly reasonable to expect NOAA GISS and CRU to undergo this sort of scrutiny. Finally while I agree that we should give weight to experts in the field who have studied these thing throughout their career we shouldn't exclude the layman and his contribution to this debate.
  50. What happened to the evidence for man-made global warming?
    Albatross #32 I wouldn't write off CGR at the moment. I think I read somebody was going to recreate the CGR/atmosphere conditions using a particle accelerator to see if the process can be reproduced in the lab. Somebody is spending 9million euros on this and using CERN particle accelerators so somebody thinks it's worth investigating. It seems admirable that they wish to test the theory by identifying a real physical process to may be occuring. The project is called CLOUD and you can read about it here http://cloud.web.cern.ch/cloud/ They have a PDF of the original proposal. It addresses some of the limitations of the science but obviously mainly focuses on why this experiment is justified. You can read all 74 pages here http://cloud.web.cern.ch/cloud/documents_cloud/kirkby_iaci.pdf but may want to start with section 2.1 which gives some of the background science. I'd just add that calling science incredibly tenuous and nonsensical when it's published in well respected peer review journals is dangerously close to the closed mind you complain about on skeptical websites. The PDF document has 138 references at the end. This all doesn't hinge on the weaknesses, limitations and uncertainties associated with a single set of work.

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